Search results for: squared prediction risk

Authors: Choppala Pratheek, Vineet Ahuja

Abstract:

Background: Crohn's disease (CD) recurrence following surgery is a common challenge, and current detection methods rely on risk factors identified in Western populations. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors and rates of postoperative CD recurrence in a tuberculosis-endemic region like India. Retrospective data was collected from a structured database from a specialty IBD clinic by reviewing case files from January 2005 to December 2021. Inclusion criteria involved CD patients diagnosed based on the ECCO-ESGAR consensus guidelines, who had undergone at least one intestinal resection and had a minimum follow-up period of one year at the IBD clinic. Results: A total of 90 patients were followed up for a median period of 45 months (IQR, 20.75 - 72.00). Out of the 90 patients, 61 received ATT prior to surgery, with a mean delay in diagnosis of 2.5 years, although statistically non-significant (P=0.078). Clinical recurrence occurred in 50% of patients, with the cumulative rate increasing from 13.3% at one year to 40% at three years. Among 63 patients who underwent endoscopy, 65.7% showed evidence of endoscopic recurrence, with the cumulative rate increasing from 31.7% at one year to 55.5% at four years. Smoking was identified as a significant risk factor for early endoscopic recurrence (P=0.001) by Cox regression analysis, but no other risk factors were identified. Initiating post-operative medications prior to clinical recurrence delayed its onset (P=0.004). Subgroup analysis indicated that endoscopic monitoring aided in the early identification of recurrence (P=0.001). The findings contribute to enhancing post-operative CD management strategies in such regions where the disease burden is escalating.

Keywords: crohns, post operative, tuberculosis-endemic, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Irsa Ejaz, Siyang He, Wei Li, Naiyue Hu, Chaochen Tang, Songbo Li, Meng Li, Boubacar Diallo, Guanghui Xie, Kang Yu

Abstract:

Background: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) is a non-destructive, fast, and low-cost method to measure the grain quality of different cereals. Previously reported NIR model calibrations using the whole grain spectra had moderate accuracy. Improved predictions are achievable by using the spectra of whole grains, when compared with the use of spectra collected from the flour samples. However, the feasibility for determining the critical biochemicals, related to the classifications for food, feed, and fuel products are not adequately investigated. Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of using NIRS and the influence of four sample types (whole grains, flours, hulled grain flours, and hull-less grain flours) on the prediction of chemical components to improve the grain sorting efficiency for human food, animal feed, and biofuel. Methods: NIR was applied in this study to determine the eight biochemicals in four types of sorghum samples: hulled grain flours, hull-less grain flours, whole grains, and grain flours. A total of 20 hybrids of sorghum grains were selected from the two locations in China. Followed by NIR spectral and wet-chemically measured biochemical data, partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to construct the prediction models. Results: The results showed that sorghum grain morphology and sample format affected the prediction of biochemicals. Using NIR data of grain flours generally improved the prediction compared with the use of NIR data of whole grains. In addition, using the spectra of whole grains enabled comparable predictions, which are recommended when a non-destructive and rapid analysis is required. Compared with the hulled grain flours, hull-less grain flours allowed for improved predictions for tannin, cellulose, and hemicellulose using NIR data. Conclusion: The established PLSR models could enable food, feed, and fuel producers to efficiently evaluate a large number of samples by predicting the required biochemical components in sorghum grains without destruction.

Keywords: FT-NIR, sorghum grains, biochemical composition, food, feed, fuel, PLSR

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Mariam Bibi, Rubab Mehboob, Mehreen Sirshar

Abstract:

Satisfying the customer requirements is the ultimate goal of producing or developing any product. The quality of the product is decided on the bases of the level of customer satisfaction. There are different techniques which have been reported during the survey which enhance the quality of the product through software defect prediction and by locating the missing software requirements. Some mining techniques were proposed to assess the individual performance indicators in collaborative environment to reduce errors at individual level. The basic intention is to produce a product with zero or few defects thereby producing a best product quality wise. In the analysis of survey the techniques like Genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, classification and clustering techniques and decision tree are studied. After analysis it has been discovered that these techniques contributed much to the improvement and enhancement of the quality of the product.

Keywords: data mining, defect prediction, missing requirements, software quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: P. Halder, A. Zaman

Abstract:

It is estimated that heart disease accounts for one in ten deaths worldwide. United States deaths due to heart disease are among the leading causes of death according to the World Health Organization. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) account for one in four U.S. deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). According to statistics, women are more likely than men to die from heart disease as a result of strokes. A 50% increase in men's mortality was reported by the World Health Organization in 2009. The consequences of cardiovascular disease are severe. The causes of heart disease include diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, abnormal pulse rates, etc. Machine learning (ML) can be used to make predictions and decisions in the healthcare industry. Thus, scientists have turned to modern technologies like Machine Learning and Data Mining to predict diseases. The disease prediction is based on four algorithms. Compared to other boosts, the Ada boost is much more accurate.

Keywords: heart disease, cardiovascular disease, coronary artery disease, feature selection, random forest, AdaBoost, SVM, decision tree

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Moise A. E., State G., Tudorache M., Custură I., Enea D. N., Osman (Defta) A., Drăgotoiu D.

Abstract:

This scientific paper explores risk management strategies in the food supply chain, with a focus on chicken raw materials, in the context of a company sourcing from the EU and non-EU. The aim of the paper is to adapt the requirements of international standards (IFS, BRC, QS, ITW, FSSC, ISO), proposing efficient methods to identify and remediate non-conformities and corrective and preventive actions. Defining the supply flow and acceptance steps promotes collaboration with suppliers to ensure the quality and safety of raw materials. To assess the risks of suppliers and raw materials, objective criteria are developed and vulnerabilities in the supply chain are analyzed, including the risk of fraud. Active monitoring of international alerts through RASFF helps to identify emerging risks quickly, and regular analysis of international trends and company performance enables continuous adaptation of risk management strategies. Implementing these measures strengthens food safety and consumer confidence in the final products supplied.

Keywords: food supply chain, international standards, quality and safety of raw materials, RASFF

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Sergey Podluzhnyy

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks of investment and pension fund management is building decision support system which helps to make right decision on corporate bond portfolio formation. Today there are several basic methods of bond portfolio management. They are duration management, immunization and convexity management. Identified methods have serious disadvantage: they do not take into account credit risk or insolvency risk of issuer. So, identified methods can be applied only for management and evaluation of high-quality sovereign bonds. Applying article proposes mathematical model for building an optimal in case of risk and yield corporate bond portfolio. Proposed model takes into account the default probability in formula of assessment of bonds which results to more correct evaluation of bonds prices. Moreover, applied model provides tools for visualization of the efficient frontier of corporate bonds portfolio taking into account the exposure to credit risk, which will increase the quality of the investment decisions of portfolio managers.

Keywords: corporate bond portfolio, default probability, effective boundary, portfolio optimization task

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Abdul Kadir, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

Abstract:

Batik Madura workers are exposed to many Musculoskeletal Disorders risk factors, particularly Low Back Pain (LBP). This study was conducted as an early detection of ergonomic risk level on Workers Industrial Sentra Batik Madura in Dusun Banyumas, Klampar Subdistrict, Proppo Pamekasan, Madura, East Java. This study includes 12 workers who 11 workers had pain in the upper and lower part of the neck, back, wrist right hand, also 10 workers had pain in the right shoulder. This is a descriptive observational study with cross-sectional approach. Qualitative research by observing workers activity such as draw and putting the wax motif, fabric dyeing, fabric painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The results are workers have identified ergonomic hazards such as awkward postures, twisting movements, repetitive, and static work postures. Using the method of REBA and QEC, the results get a very high-risk level of activity in each of Madura batik making process is the draw and putting the wax motif, coloring, painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The level of risk can be reduced by improvement of work equipment include the provision of seats, strut fabric, high settings furnaces, drums, coloring basin, and washing tub.

Keywords: activities of Madura's batik, ergonomic risk level, equipment, QEC (Quick Exposure Checklist), REBA (Rapid Entire Body Assessment)

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Marcio Freire Cruz, Naoaki Ono, Shigehiko Kanaya, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira Cavalcante

Abstract:

The systems that record patient care information, known as Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and those that monitor vital signs of patients, such as heart rate, body temperature, and blood pressure have been extremely valuable for the effectiveness of the patient’s treatment. Several kinds of research have been using data from EMRs and vital signs of patients to predict illnesses. Among them, we highlight those that intend to predict, classify, or, at least identify patterns, of sepsis illness in patients under vital signs monitoring. Sepsis is an organic dysfunction caused by a dysregulated patient's response to an infection that affects millions of people worldwide. Early detection of sepsis is expected to provide a significant improvement in its treatment. Preceding works usually combined medical, statistical, mathematical and computational models to develop detection methods for early prediction, getting higher accuracies, and using the smallest number of variables. Among other techniques, we could find researches using survival analysis, specialist systems, machine learning and deep learning that reached great results. In our research, patients are modeled as points moving each hour in an n-dimensional space where n is the number of vital signs (variables). These points can reach a sepsis target point after some time. For now, the sepsis target point was calculated using the median of all patients’ variables on the sepsis onset. From these points, we calculate for each hour the position vector, the first derivative (velocity vector) and the second derivative (acceleration vector) of the variables to evaluate their behavior. And we construct a prediction model based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network, including these derivatives as explanatory variables. The accuracy of the prediction 6 hours before the time of sepsis, considering only the vital signs reached 83.24% and by including the vectors position, speed, and acceleration, we obtained 94.96%. The data are being collected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) Database, a public database that contains vital signs, laboratory test results, observations, notes, and so on, from more than 60.000 patients.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, long short-term memory, prediction, sepsis

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: psychological well-being, cardiovascular disease, elderly, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Bremmy Laksono, Nurul Qomarilla, Riksa Parikrama, Dyan K. Nugrahaeni, Willyanti Soewondo, Dadang S. H. Effendi, Eriska Rianti, Arlette S. Setiawan, Ine Sasmita, Risti S. Primanti, Erna Kurnikasari, Yunia Sribudiani

Abstract:

Down syndrome is a chromosomal abnormality of chromosome 21 which can appear in man or woman. Maternal age and paternal age, history of radiation are the common risk factors. This study was conducted to observe risk factors which related as causes of Down syndrome. In this case control study using purposive sampling technique, 84 respondents were chosen from Cell Culture and Cytogenetics Laboratory patients in Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia. They were used as study samples and divided into 42 Down syndrome cases and 42 control respondents. This study used univariate and bivariate analysis (chi-square). Samples population were West Java residents, the biggest province in Indonesia in number of population. The results showed maternal age, paternal age, history of radiation exposure and family history were not significantly related to Down syndrome baby. Moreover, all of those factors also did not contribute to the risk of having a child with Down syndrome in patients at Cell Culture and Cytogenetics Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran. Therefore, we should investigate other risk factors of Down syndrome in West Java population.

Keywords: down syndrome, family history, maternal age, paternal age, risk factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Leslie M. Gutman

Abstract:

Conduct problems (CP) represent a major dilemma, with wide-ranging and long-lasting individual and societal impacts. Children experience heterogeneous patterns of conduct problems; based on the age of onset, developmental course and related risk factors from around age 3. Early childhood represents a potential window for intervention efforts aimed at changing the trajectory of early starting conduct problems. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206 children), this study (a) identifies trajectories of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years and (b) assesses the cumulative and interactive effects of individual, family and socioeconomic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years. The same factors according to three domains were assessed, including child (i.e., low verbal ability, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, emotional problems), family (i.e., single families, parental poor physical and mental health, large family size) and socioeconomic (i.e., low family income, low parental education, unemployment, social housing). A cumulative risk score for the child, family, and socioeconomic domains at each age was calculated. It was then examined how the cumulative risk scores explain variation in the trajectories of conduct problems. Lastly, interactive effects among the different domains of cumulative risk were tested. Using group-based trajectory modeling, four distinct trajectories were found including a ‘low’ problem group and three groups showing childhood-onset conduct problems: ‘school-age onset’; ‘early-onset, desisting’; and ‘early-onset, persisting’. The ‘low’ group (57% of the sample) showed a low probability of conducts problems, close to zero, from 3 to 14 years. The ‘early-onset, desisting’ group (23% of the sample) demonstrated a moderate probability of CP in early childhood, with a decline from 3 to 5 years and a low probability thereafter. The ‘early-onset, persistent’ group (8%) followed a high probability of conduct problems, which declined from 11 years but was close to 70% at 14 years. In the ‘school-age onset’ group, 12% of the sample showed a moderate probability of conduct problems from 3 and 5 years, with a sharp increase by 7 years, increasing to 50% at 14 years. In terms of individual risk, all factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-onset groups compared to the ‘low’ group. For cumulative risk, the socioeconomic domain at 9 months and 3 years, the family domain at all ages except 14 years and child domain at all ages were found to differentiate childhood-onset groups from the ‘low’ group. Cumulative risk at 9 months and 3 years did not differentiate between the ‘school-onset’ group and ‘low’ group. Significant interactions were found between the domains for the ‘early-onset, desisting group’ suggesting that low levels of risk in one domain may buffer the effects of high risk in another domain. The implications of these findings for preventive interventions will be highlighted.

Keywords: conduct problems, cumulative risk, developmental trajectories, early childhood, adolescence

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: H. Ben Salah, A. Gannoun, C. de Peretti, A. Trabelsi

Abstract:

The Downside Risk (DSR) model for portfolio optimisation allows to overcome the drawbacks of the classical mean-variance model concerning the asymetry of returns and the risk perception of investors. This model optimization deals with a positive definite matrix that is endogenous with respect to portfolio weights. This aspect makes the problem far more difficult to handle. For this purpose, Athayde (2001) developped a new recurcive minimization procedure that ensures the convergence to the solution. However, when a finite number of observations is available, the portfolio frontier presents an appearance which is not very smooth. In order to overcome that, Athayde (2003) proposed a mean kernel estimation of the returns, so as to create a smoother portfolio frontier. This technique provides an effect similar to the case in which we had continuous observations. In this paper, taking advantage on the the robustness of the median, we replace the mean estimator in Athayde's model by a nonparametric median estimator of the returns. Then, we give a new version of the former algorithm (of Athayde (2001, 2003)). We eventually analyse the properties of this improved portfolio frontier and apply this new method on real examples.

Keywords: Downside Risk, Kernel Method, Median, Nonparametric Estimation, Semivariance

Procedia PDF Downloads 492

Authors: Funmilayo Juliana Afolabi, Joke Haafkens, Paul De Beer

Abstract:

Globally, there is a growing concern on reducing workplace accidents in the informal sector. However, there is a dearth of study on the perception of the informal workers on occupational risks they are exposed to. The way a worker perceives the workplace risk will influence his/her risk tolerance and risk behavior. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to have an in-depth understanding of the way the artisans perceive the risks at their workplace and how it influences their risk tolerance and risk behavior. This will help in designing meaningful intervention for the artisans and it will assist the policy makers in formulating a policy that will help them. Methods: Forty-three artisans were purposely selected for the study; data were generated through observation of the workplace and work practices of the artisans and in-depth interview from automobile artisans (Panel beater, Mechanic, Vulcanizer, and Painters) in Osun State, Nigeria. The transcriptions were coded and analyzed using MAXQDA software. Results: The perceived occupational risks among the study groups are a danger of being run over by oncoming vehicles while working by the roadside, a risk of vehicle falling on workers while working under the vehicle, cuts, and burns, fire explosion, falls from height and injuries from bursting of tires. The identified risk factors are carelessness of the workers, pressure from customers, inadequate tools, preternatural forces, God’s will and lack of apprentices that will assist them in the workplace. Furthermore, the study revealed that artisans engage in risky behavior like siphoning fuel with mouth because of perception that fuel is good for expelling worms and will make them free from any stomach upset. Conclusions: The study concluded that risky behaviors are influenced by culture, beliefs, and perception of the artisans. The study, therefore, suggested proper health and safety education for the artisans.

Keywords: automobile artisans, informal, occupational risks, Nigeria, sociological enquiry

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Michael K.O. Ayomoh, Khaled A. Abou-El-Hossein., Sameh F.M. Ghobashy

Abstract:

This paper proposes a numerical modelling scheme for surface roughness prediction. The approach is premised on the use of 3D difference analysis method enhanced with the use of feedback control loop where a set of adaptive weights are generated. The surface roughness values utilized in this paper were adapted from [1]. Their experiments were carried out using S55C high carbon steel. A comparison was further carried out between the proposed technique and those utilized in [1]. The experimental design has three cutting parameters namely: depth of cut, feed rate and cutting speed with twenty-seven experimental sample-space. The simulation trials conducted using Matlab software is of two sub-classes namely: prediction of the surface roughness readings for the non-boundary cutting combinations (NBCC) with the aid of the known surface roughness readings of the boundary cutting combinations (BCC). The following simulation involved the use of the predicted outputs from the NBCC to recover the surface roughness readings for the boundary cutting combinations (BCC). The simulation trial for the NBCC attained a state of total stability in the 7th iteration i.e. a point where the actual and desired roughness readings are equal such that error is minimized to zero by using a set of dynamic weights generated in every following simulation trial. A comparative study among the three methods showed that the proposed difference analysis technique with adaptive weight from feedback control, produced a much accurate output as against the abductive and regression analysis techniques presented in this.

Keywords: Difference Analysis, Surface Roughness; Mesh- Analysis, Feedback control, Adaptive weight, Boundary Element

Procedia PDF Downloads 621

Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

Abstract:

The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Lei Zhu, Nan Li

Abstract:

Cold stamping has been widely applied in the automotive industry for the mass production of a great range of automotive panels. Predicting the springback to ensure the dimensional accuracy of the cold-stamped components is a critical step. The main approaches for the prediction and compensation of springback in cold stamping include running Finite Element (FE) simulations and conducting experiments, which require forming process expertise and can be time-consuming and expensive for the design of cold stamping tools. Machine learning technologies have been proven and successfully applied in learning complex system behaviours using presentative samples. These technologies exhibit the promising potential to be used as supporting design tools for metal forming technologies. This study, for the first time, presents a novel application of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based surrogate model to predict the springback fields for variable U-shape cold bending geometries. A dataset is created based on the U-shape cold bending geometries and the corresponding FE simulations results. The dataset is then applied to train the CNN surrogate model. The result shows that the surrogate model can achieve near indistinguishable full-field predictions in real-time when compared with the FE simulation results. The application of CNN in efficient springback prediction can be adopted in industrial settings to aid both conceptual and final component designs for designers without having manufacturing knowledge.

Keywords: springback, cold stamping, convolutional neural networks, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Nicole Harley, Mahmoud Eid, Abdurahman Tarmal, Vishal Dey

Abstract:

Histological sampling plays an integral role in the diagnostic process of renal diseases. Percutaneous native renal biopsy is typically performed under ultrasound guidance, with this service usually being provided by nephrologists. In some centers, there is a role for radiologists in performing renal biopsies. Previous comparative studies have demonstrated non-inferiority between outcomes of percutaneous native renal biopsies performed by nephrologists compared with radiologists. We sought to compare biopsy adequacy between nephrologists and radiologists in University Hospital Crosshouse. The online system SERPR (Scottish Electronic Renal Patient Record) contains information pertaining to patients who have undergone renal biopsies. An online search was performed to acquire a list of all patients who underwent renal biopsy between 2013 and 2020 in University Hospital Crosshouse. 355 native renal biopsies were performed in total across this 7-year period. A retrospective analysis was performed on these cases, with records and reports being assessed for: the total number of glomeruli obtained per biopsy, whether the number of glomeruli obtained was adequate for diagnosis, as per an internationally agreed standard, and whether a histological diagnosis was achieved. Nephrologists performed 43.9% of native renal biopsies (n=156) and radiologists performed 56.1% (n=199). The mean number of glomeruli obtained by nephrologists was 17.16+/-10.31. The mean number of glomeruli obtained by radiologists was 18.38+/-10.55. T-test demonstrated no statistically significant difference between specialties comparatively (p-value 0.277). Native renal biopsies are required to obtain at least 8 glomeruli to be diagnostic as per internationally agreed criteria. Nephrologists met these criteria in 88.5% of native renal biopsies (n=138) and radiologists met this criteria in 89.5% (n=178). T-test and Chi-squared analysis demonstrate there was no statistically significant difference between the specialties comparatively (p-value 0.663 and 0.922, respectively). Biopsies performed by nephrologists yielded tissue that was diagnostic in 91.0% (n=142) of sampling. Biopsies performed by radiologists yielded tissue that was diagnostic in 92.4% (n=184) of sampling. T-test and Chi-squared analysis demonstrate there was no statistically significant difference between the specialties comparatively (p-value 0.625 and 0.889, respectively). This project demonstrates that at University Hospital Crosshouse, there is no statistical difference between radiologists and nephrologists in terms of glomeruli acquisition or samples achieving a histological diagnosis. Given the non-inferiority between specialties demonstrated by previous studies and this project, this evidence could support the restructuring of services to allow more renal biopsies to be performed by renal services and allow reallocation of radiology department resources.

Keywords: biopsy, medical imaging, nephrology, radiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Almostafa Abdelaziz, Liang Guozhu, Anwer Elsayed

Abstract:

The determination of grain geometry is an important and critical step in the design of solid propellant rocket motor. In this study, the design process involved parametric geometry modeling in CAD, MATLAB coding of performance prediction and 2D star grain ignition experiment. The 2D star grain burnback achieved by creating new surface via each web increment and calculating geometrical properties at each step. The 2D star grain is further modified to burn as a tapered 3D star grain. Zero dimensional method used to calculate the internal ballistic performance. Experimental and theoretical results were compared in order to validate the performance prediction of the solid rocket motor. The results show that the usage of 3D grain geometry will decrease the pressure inside the combustion chamber and enhance the volumetric loading ratio.

Keywords: burnback analysis, rocket motor, star grain, three dimensional grains

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Natalia Limones, Javier Marzo, Marcus Wijnen, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila

Abstract:

In this research we developed a structured approach for the detection of areas under the highest levels of drought risk that is suitable for data-scarce environments. The methodology is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in successive exercises. The research reviews the history of drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012, focusing on the meteorological and the hydrological drought types. Only global open data information coming from modeling or remote sensing was used for the description of the hydroclimatological variables since there is almost no ground data in this part of the country. Also, the study intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully understand the risk. As a result, a map of the areas under the highest risk in the south of the country is produced, which is one of the main outputs of this work. It was also possible to confirm that the set of indicators used revealed different drought vulnerability profiles in the South of Angola and, as a result, several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts were recognized. The results demonstrated that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that triggered an unprecedent exhaustion of the surface water resources, and that the majority of their socioeconomic impacts started soon after the identified onset of these processes.

Keywords: drought risk, exposure, hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Soon-Mi Park, Ihn Sook Jeong

Abstract:

This retrospective study was aimed to identify risk factors of intravenous (IV) infiltration for hospitalized children. The participants were 1,174 children for test and 424 children for validation, who admitted to a general hospital, received peripheral intravenous injection therapy at least once and had complete records. Data were analyzed with frequency and percentage or mean and standard deviation were calculated, and decision tree analysis was used to screen for the most important risk factors for IV infiltration for hospitalized children. The decision tree analysis showed that the most important traditional risk factors for IV infiltration were the use of ampicillin/sulbactam, IV insertion site (lower extremities), and medical department (internal medicine) both in the test sample and validation sample. The correct classification was 92.2% in the test sample and 90.1% in the validation sample. More careful attention should be made to patients who are administered ampicillin/sulbactam, have IV site in lower extremities and have internal medical problems to prevent or detect infiltration occurrence.

Keywords: decision tree analysis, intravenous infiltration, child, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Azrul Azlan Iskandar Mirza

Abstract:

The purpose of Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP) for Islamic Bank is to promote prudent liquidity risk-taking behavior of business units. The acquirer of stable deposits will be rewarded whilst a business unit that generates long-term assets will be charged for added liquidity funding risks. In the end, it promotes risk-adjusted pricing by incorporating profit rate risk and liquidity risk component in the product pricing. However, in the event of Shariah non-compliant (SNCE), FTP components will be examined in the rectification plan especially when Islamic banks need to purify the non-compliance income. The finding shows that the determination between actual and provision cost will defer the decision among Shariah committee in Islamic banks. This paper will review each of FTP components to ensure the classification of actual and provision costs reflect the decision on rectification process on SNCE. This will benefit future decision and its consistency of Islamic banks.

Keywords: fund transfer pricing, Islamic banking, Islamic finance, shariah non-compliant event

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Jieh-Jiuh Wang

Abstract:

Disasters happen frequently due to the global climate changes today. The cultural heritage conservation should be considered from the perspectives of surrounding environments and large-scale disasters. Most current thoughts about the disaster prevention of cultural heritages in Taiwan are single-point thoughts emphasizing firefighting, decay prevention, and construction reinforcement and ignoring the whole concept of the environment. The traditional conservation cannot defend against more and more tremendous and frequent natural disasters caused by climate changes. More and more cultural heritages are confronting the high risk of disasters. This study adopts the perspective of risk identification and takes flood as the main disaster category. It analyzes the amount and categories of cultural heritages that might suffer from disasters with the geographic information system integrating the latest flooding potential data from National Fire Agency and Water Resources Agency and the basic data of cultural heritages. It examines the actual risk of cultural heritages confronting floods and serves as the accordance for future considerations of risk measures and preparation for reducing disasters. The result of the study finds the positive relationship between the disaster affected situation of national cultural heritages and the rainfall intensity. The order of impacted level by floods is historical buildings, historical sites indicated by municipalities and counties, and national historical sites and relics. However, traditional settlements and cultural landscapes are not impacted. It might be related to the taboo space in the traditional culture of site selection (concepts of disaster avoidance). As for the regional distribution on the other hand, cultural heritages in central and northern Taiwan suffer from more shocking floods, while the heritages in northern and eastern Taiwan suffer from more serious flooding depth.

Keywords: cultural heritage, flood, preventive conservation, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Chi-Jung Chung, Chao-Hsiang Chang, Chiu-Shong Liu, Sheng-Wei Li, Mu-Chi Chung, Ting-Jie Wen, Hui-Ling Lee

Abstract:

Cigarette smoke contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as acrylamide, 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. This study aimed to explore the associations between the urinary levels of cotinine and VOC metabolites and the risk of urothelial carcinoma (UC). A hospital-based case–control study involving two groups matched on the basis of age ( ± 3 years) and gender was designed. UC was clinically diagnosed through urological examinations and pathologically verified. Smoking-related information was collected through questionnaires and face-to-face interviews with all study participants. Urine samples were collected for the analysis of the urinary levels of VOC metabolites, cotinine, and 8-hydroxydeoxygua- nosine (8-OHdG), which was selected as a proxy of oxidative stress. Multiple logistic regressions were applied to estimate the risk of UC. The urinary cotinine and 8-OHdG levels of the UC group were higher than those of the control group. The urinary levels of VOC metabolites, including N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl)-L-cysteine (AAMA), N- acetyl-S-(2-carbamoyl-2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine, N-acetyl-S- (4- hydroxy-2-buten-1-yl)-Lcysteine-3, trans, trans-muconic acid (t,t- MA), and S-phenylmercapturic acid (SPMA) increased as the urinary levels of cotinine increased. Relevant dose-response relationships between the risk of UC risk and the urinary levels of AAMA , t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were found after adjusting for potential risk factors. The UC risk of participants with high urinary levels of cotinine, AAMA, t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were 3.5–6-fold higher than those of other participants. Increased urinary levels of VOC metabolites were associated with smoking-related UC risk. The development of UC should be explored in large-scale in vitro or in vivo studies with the repeated measurement of VOC metabolites.

Keywords: volatile organic compound, urothelial carcinoma, cotinine, 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Dost Muhammad Halepoto, Laila AL-Ayadhi

Abstract:

Neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism can cause lifelong disability. Genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to the development of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but relatively few studies have considered potential environmental risks. Several industrial chemicals and other environmental exposures are recognized causes of neurodevelopmental disorders and subclinical brain dysfunction. The toxic effects of such chemicals in the developing human brain are not known. This review highlights the role of environmental risk factors including drugs, toxic chemicals, heavy metals, pesticides, vaccines, and other suspected neurotoxicants including persistent organic pollutants for ASD. It also provides information about the environmental toxins to yield new insights into factors that affect autism risk as well as an opportunity to investigate the relation between autism and environmental exposure.

Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder, ASD, environmental factors, neurodevelopmental disorder

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Patcharapa Thaweekul, Paskorn Sritipsukho

Abstract:

Background: During the training period of the 6-year medical curriculum, medical students seem to have many risk behaviors of developing obesity. This study aims to demonstrate the prevalence and risk behavior of obesity and related metabolic disorders among the final-year medical students of Thammasat University as well as the change in nutritional status during studying program. Methods: 123 participants were asked to complete the self-report questionnaires. Weight, height, waist circumference and blood pressure were obtained. Blood samples were drawn for total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and plasma glucose. Body weight and height of the medical students in the first year were obtained from the medical report at the entry. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity at the entry to medical school was 22.0% and increased to 30.1% in the final year. Two obese students (5.4%) was diagnosed as metabolic syndrome. During 6-year curriculum, the BMI gained in male medical students were more significant as compared to female students (1.76±1.74 and 0.43±1.82 kg/m2, respectively; p <.001). The current BMI is significantly correlated with the BMI at entry. Serum LDL-C in the overweight/obese students was significantly higher as compared to the normal weight and underweight group. Sleep deprivation was a significantly frequent behavior in the overweight/obese students. Conclusion: Medical students, as having high-risk behaviors, should be assessed for the nutritional status and metabolic parameters. Medical schools should promote the healthy behaviors to increase the healthy eating and exercise habits and reduced the risk behaviors among them.

Keywords: medical students, metabolic syndrome, obesity, risk behaviors

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Ruzanna Muradyan

Abstract:

Medical data mining is a crucial field in contemporary healthcare that offers cutting-edge tactics with enormous potential to transform patient care. This abstract examines how sophisticated data mining techniques could transform the healthcare industry, with a special focus on how they might improve patient outcomes. Healthcare data repositories have dynamically evolved, producing a rich tapestry of different, multi-dimensional information that includes genetic profiles, lifestyle markers, electronic health records, and more. By utilizing data mining techniques inside this vast library, a variety of prospects for precision medicine, predictive analytics, and insight production become visible. Predictive modeling for illness prediction, risk stratification, and therapy efficacy evaluations are important points of focus. Healthcare providers may use this abundance of data to tailor treatment plans, identify high-risk patient populations, and forecast disease trajectories by applying machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics. Better patient outcomes, more efficient use of resources, and early treatments are made possible by this proactive strategy. Furthermore, data mining techniques act as catalysts to reveal complex relationships between apparently unrelated data pieces, providing enhanced insights into the cause of disease, genetic susceptibilities, and environmental factors. Healthcare practitioners can get practical insights that guide disease prevention, customized patient counseling, and focused therapies by analyzing these associations. The abstract explores the problems and ethical issues that come with using data mining techniques in the healthcare industry. In order to properly use these approaches, it is essential to find a balance between data privacy, security issues, and the interpretability of complex models. Finally, this abstract demonstrates the revolutionary power of modern data mining methodologies in transforming the healthcare sector. Healthcare practitioners and researchers can uncover unique insights, enhance clinical decision-making, and ultimately elevate patient care to unprecedented levels of precision and efficacy by employing cutting-edge methodologies.

Keywords: data mining, healthcare, patient care, predictive analytics, precision medicine, electronic health records, machine learning, predictive modeling, disease prognosis, risk stratification, treatment efficacy, genetic profiles, precision health

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Saniya Ablatt, Matthew Jacobsson, Jamie Whisler, Austin Forbes

Abstract:

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a complication that occurs in up to 41% of patients after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Although certain characteristics such as individual patient anatomy are known risk factors for POPF, the effect of barbed suture techniques remains underexplored. This study examines whether the use of Stratafix barbed suture versus PDS impacts the risk of developing POPF. After obtaining IRB exemption, a retrospective chart review was initiated involving patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for the treatment of malignant or premalignant lesions of the pancreas at our institution between April 1st 2020 and April 30th 2022. Patients were stratified into 2 groups respective to the technique used to suture the pancreatico-jejunal anastomosis: Group 1 was composed to patients in which 4.0 Stratafix® suture was used n=41. Group 1 was composed to patients in which 4.0 PDS suture was used n=42. Data regarding patient age, sex, BMI, presence or absence of biochemical leak, presence or absence of grade B & C postoperative pancreatic fistulas, rate and type of in hospital complication, rate of reoperation, 30 day readmission rate, 90 day mortality, and total mortality were compared between groups. 83 patients were included in our study with 42 receiving Stratafix and 41 receiving PDS (50.6% vs 49.4%). Stratafix patients had less biochemical leaks (0.0% vs 4.8%, p=0.19) and higher rates of POPF but this was not statistically significant (7.2% vs 2.4%, p=0.26). Additionally, there was no difference between the use of stratafix versus PDS on the risk of clinically relevant grade B or C POPF (p=0.26, OR=3.25 [CI= 0.74-16.43]). Of the independent variables including age, race, sex, BMI, and ASA class, BMI greater than 25 increased the risk of clinically relevant POPF by 7.7 times compared to patients with BMI less than 25 (p=0.03, OR=7.79 [1.04-88.51]). Despite no significant difference in primary outcomes, the Stratafix group had lower rates of secondary outcomes including 90-day mortality; bleeding, cardiac, and infectious complications; reoperation; and 30-day readmission. On statistical analysis, Stratafix decreased the risk of 30-day readmission (p=0.04, OR=0.21, CI=0.04-0.97) and had a marginally significant effect on the risk of reoperation (p=0.08, OR=0.24, CI=0.04-1.26). There was no difference between the use of Stratafix versus PDS on the risk of POPF (p=0.26). However, Stratafix decreased the risk of 30-day readmission (p=0.04) and BMI greater than 25 increased the risk of clinically relevant POPF (p=0.03).

Keywords: pancreas, hepatobiliary surgery, hepatobiliary, pancreatic leak, biochemical leak, fistula, pancreatic fistula

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Rohin Rameswarapu, Sameer Valsangkar

Abstract:

Background: Globally, musculoskeletal disorders are the largest single cause of work-related illnesses accounting for over 33% of all newly reported occupational illnesses. Risk factors for MSD need to be delineated to suggest means for amelioration. Material and methods: In this current cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MSDs among workers in an electrical company assembly line, the socio-demographic and job characteristics associated with MSD were obtained through a semi-structured questionnaire. A quantitative assessment of the physical risk factors through the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) tool, and measurement of psychosocial risk factors through a Likert scale was obtained. Statistical analysis was conducted using Epi-info software and descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square and unpaired t test were obtained. Results: A total of 263 workers consented and participated in the study. Among these workers, 200 (76%) suffered from MSD. Most of the workers were aged between 18–27 years and majority of the workers were women with 198 (75.2%) of the 263 workers being women. A chi square test was significant for association between male gender and MSD with a P value of 0.007. Among the MSD positive group, 4 (2%) had a grand score of 5, 10 (5%) had a grand score of 6 and 186 (93%) had a grand score of 7 on RULA. There were significant differences between the non-MSD and MSD group on five out of the seven psychosocial domains, namely job demand, job monotony, co-worker support, decision control and family and environment domains. Discussion: The current cross-sectional study demonstrates a high prevalence of MSD among assembly line works with inherent physical and psychosocial risk factors and recommends that not only physical risk factors, addressing psychosocial risk factors through proper ergonomic means is also essential to the well-being of the employee.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, India, occupational health, Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Tinu Rose Francis, S. Wilkinson, Y. Chang-Richards, S. Mannakkara

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to assess the implementation of Build Back Better (BBB) propositions for disaster risk reduction in the natural environment with regard to greater Christchurch, New Zealand, after the 2010–2011 earthquakes in the region. A set of indicators was established to analyse the extent of recovery attained in Christchurch. Disaster recovery in the region is an ongoing process, which gives us the opportunity to rate the progress made so far. Disasters cause significant damage to the built, social and economic environments and also have severe consequences for the natural environment. Findings show that greater Christchurch has made important progress and implemented a comprehensive natural environment recovery plan. The plan addresses the restoration of biodiversity, natural resources, disaster waste management and amenity values in greater Christchurch. This paper also surveys the risk reduction actions being implemented with regard to the natural environment. The findings of this study will help governing bodies to identify and fill the gaps in their natural environment recovery plans.

Keywords: build back better (BBB), natural environment, planning, recovery, reconstruction, resilience, risk reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang

Abstract:

Background: Since students in high schools in Cameroon fall within the age group hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, it is assumed that these students might be exposed to sexual risk behaviours. Sexual risk behaviours include engaging in unprotected sexual intercourse, early sexual debut, multiple sexual partners and coerced or forced sex, and these behaviours might predispose youth to HIV transmission. However, little has been explored on the sexual risk behaviours of high school learners in Cameroon. This study aimed at examining the sexual risk behaviours of high school students in an urban town of Cameroon. Method: A quantitative cross sectional design was adopted, using a self-administered questionnaire to collect data from a disproportional stratified simple random sample of 480 (240 male and 240 female) grade 10 to grade 12 students from two participating secondary school in Limbe in the Southwest region of Cameroon August 2014. Descriptive and Chi square statistics were calculated using statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 software program at the level 0.05. Results: Majority of the respondents, 63.4% reported being sexually active, of whom only 33.2% used condoms consistently. Up to 37% of the sexually active respondents had multiple sexual partners in the past one year before the study, while 23% had multiple sexual partners during the study period. The mean age of first sex was 15.4 years. Among Christians, Pentecostals, 17 (58.6%) were more likely to have experienced sexual coercion than non-Pentecostals, 111 (42.2%) (p= 0.000). Christians, 41 (10.3%) were more likely to have been forced into first sex than Muslims, 0 (0.0%); while among the Christians, Pentecostals, 6 (15.0%) were more likely to have been forced into first sex than non-Pentecostals, 35 (10.9%) (p=0.004). Among the Christians, Pentecostals, 16 (66.7%) were more likely to have experienced sex by age 16 years than non-Pentecostals, 125 (64.1%) (p= 0.000). Students who lived in rented places, 32 (22.7%) were more likely to have had multiple sexual partners than those who lived in their parents’ houses, 35 (18.1%) (p= 0.000). Males, 36 (16.0%) were likely to have had multiple concurrent sexual partners than females, 14 (6.0%) (p=0.002). Students who used condoms consistently, 25 (33.3%) were more likely to have a higher perception of risk of contracting HIV than those who did not use condoms consistently, 38 (29.9%) (p=0.002). Students who lived in their parents’ houses, 35 (35.4%) were more likely to use condoms consistently during sex, than those who lived in rented places, 31 (29.8%) (p=0.021). Students who passed their examinations, 57 (30.9%) were more likely to have used condoms consistently than those with low academic profiles, 24 (27.9%) (p= 0.034). Conclusions and Recommendations: Gender, lack of parental control, religion, academic profile, poverty, place of residence and perception of risk of HIV infection were the main factors associated with sexual risk behaviours among students in urban Cameroon. The findings indicate that sexual risk behaviours exist among high school students in Limbe urban town of Cameroon. There is need for campaigns and interventions to bring about sexual behaviour change.

Keywords: Cameroon, high school students, HIV/AIDS, Limbe urban town, sexual risk behaviours

Procedia PDF Downloads 331