Search results for: water quality parameter

Authors: Marilyn S. Painagan, Willie Jones B. Saliling

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This paper reports an optimized cropping calendar and land suitability for maize in North Cotabato derived from modeling crop productivity over time and space. Using Quantum GIS, eight representative soil types and 0.3o x 0.3o climate grids shapefiles were intersected to form thirty two pedoclimatic zones within the boundaries of the province. Surveys were done to ascertain crop performance and phenological properties on field. Based on these surveys, crop parameters were calibrated specific for a variety of maize. Soil properties and climatic data (daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures) from pedoclimatic zones were loaded to the FAO Aquacrop Water Productivity Model along with the crop properties from field surveys to simulate yield from 1980 to 2010. The average yield per month was computed to come up with the month of planting having the highest and lowest probable yield in a year assuming that all lands were planted with maize. The yield attributes were visualized in the Quantum GIS environment. The study revealed that optimal cropping patterns varied across North Cotabato. Highest probable yield (8000 kg/ha) can be obtained when maize is planted on May and September (sandy clay-loam soils) in the northern part of the province while the lowest probable yield (1000 kg/ha) can be obtained when maize is planted on January, February and March (clay loam soils) at the northern part of the province. Yields are simulated on the basis of varieties currently planted by farmers of North Cotabato. The resulting maps suggest where and when maize is most suitable to achieve high yields. There is a need to ground truth and validate the cropping calendar on field.

Keywords: aquacrop, quantum GIS, maize, cropping calendar, water productivity

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Authors: O. Alelweet, S. Pavia

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In order to face current compelling environmental problems affecting the planet, the construction industry needs to adapt. It is widely acknowledged that there is a need for durable, high-performance, low-greenhouse gas emission binders that can be used as an alternative to Portland cement (PC) to lower the environmental impact of construction. Alkali activated materials (AAMs) are considered a more sustainable alternative to PC materials. The binders of AAMs result from the reaction of an alkali metal source and a silicate powder or precursor which can be a calcium silicate or an aluminosilicate-rich material. This paper evaluates the particle size, specific surface area, chemical and mineral composition and amorphousness of silicate materials (most industrial waste locally produced in Ireland and Saudi Arabia) to develop alkali-activated binders that can replace PC resources in specific applications. These include recycled ceramic brick, bauxite, illitic clay, fly ash and metallurgical slag. According to the results, the wastes are reactive and comply with building standards requirements. The study also evidenced that the reactivity of the Saudi bauxite (with significant kaolinite) can be enhanced on thermal activation; and high calcium in the slag will promote reaction; which should be possible with low alkalinity activators. The wastes evidenced variable water demands that will be taken into account for mixing with the activators. Finally, further research is proposed to further determine the reactive fraction of the clay-based precursors.

Keywords: alkali activated materials, alkali-activated binders, sustainable building materials, recycled ceramic brick, bauxite, red mud, clay, fly ash, metallurgical slags, particle size, chemical and mineral composition and amorphousness, water demand, particle density

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Cho Achidi

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Tomato is a crucial food crop significantly contributes to global food and nutrition security. However, postharvest losses severely limit its role. Therefore, it is necessary to develop sustainable strategies to minimize these losses and improve the shelf-life of tomato fruits. One of the major concerns is bacterial infections, particularly by faecal coliform bacteria, which can cause food poisoning and illnesses like diarrhoea and dysentery. This study seeks to identify the presence of coliform bacteria on tomato fruits in fields and markets in Muea, Buea Municipality. The study also evaluated different management strategies to reduce the bacterial incidence and load on tomato fruits. A total of 200 fruits were sampled for both the coliform survey and shelf-life analysis. Ten farmers and traders provided samples, including asymptomatic and symptomatic tomato fruits. The samples designated for shelf-life analysis were treated with Aquatab, warm water, lemon, and onion. The results indicated that out of the 80 symptomatic samples collected, 12.5% contained faecal and total coliform species. Among the ten farms sampled, 14% were infected with coliform bacteria, with the highest infestation rate of 60% recorded in field 4. Furthermore, 15% of the asymptomatic tomato fruits were found to be infected by coliform bacteria. Regarding the management strategies, Aquatabs exhibited the highest efficacy in reducing the incidence of coliform bacteria on tomato fruits, followed by onion and lemon extracts. Although hot water treatment effectively removed bacteria from the fruits, damaging the cell wall negatively affected their shelf-life. Overall, this study emphasizes the severity of coliform bacterial pathogens in the Muea area, particularly their occurrence on asymptomatic tomatoes, which poses a significant concern for plant quarantine services. It also demonstrates potential options for mitigating this bacterial challenge.

Keywords: tomato, shelf-life analysis, food and nutrition security, coliform bbacteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: T. Poyai, P. Painmanakul, N. Chawaloesphonsiya, P. Dhanasin, C. Getwech, P. Wattana

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Drilling is a key activity in oil and gas exploration and production. Drilling always requires the use of drilling mud for lubricating the drill bit and controlling the subsurface pressure. As drilling proceeds, a considerable amount of cuttings or rock fragments is generated. In general, water or Water Based Mud (WBM) serves as drilling fluid for the top hole section. The cuttings generated from this section is non-hazardous and normally applied as fill materials. On the other hand, drilling the bottom hole to reservoir section uses Synthetic Based Mud (SBM) of which synthetic oils are composed. The bottom-hole cuttings, SBM cuttings, is regarded as a hazardous waste, in accordance with the government regulations, due to the presence of hydrocarbons. Currently, the SBM cuttings are disposed of as an alternative fuel and raw material in cement kiln. Instead of burning, this work aims to propose an alternative for drill cuttings management under two ultimate goals: (1) reduction of hazardous waste volume; and (2) making use of the cleaned cuttings. Soil washing was selected as the major treatment process. The physiochemical properties of drill cuttings were analyzed, such as size fraction, pH, moisture content, and hydrocarbons. The particle size of cuttings was analyzed via light scattering method. Oil present in cuttings was quantified in terms of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) through gas chromatography equipped with flame ionization detector (GC-FID). Other components were measured by the standard methods for soil analysis. Effects of different washing agents, liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratio, washing time, mixing speed, rinse-to-solid (R/S) ratio, and rinsing time were also evaluated. It was found that drill cuttings held the electrical conductivity of 3.84 dS/m, pH of 9.1, and moisture content of 7.5%. The TPH in cuttings existed in the diesel range with the concentration ranging from 20,000 to 30,000 mg/kg dry cuttings. A majority of cuttings particles held a mean diameter of 50 µm, which represented silt fraction. The results also suggested that a green solvent was considered most promising for cuttings treatment regarding occupational health, safety, and environmental benefits. The optimal washing conditions were obtained at L/S of 5, washing time of 15 min, mixing speed of 60 rpm, R/S of 10, and rinsing time of 1 min. After washing process, three fractions including clean cuttings, spent solvent, and wastewater were considered and provided with recommendations. The residual TPH less than 5,000 mg/kg was detected in clean cuttings. The treated cuttings can be then used for various purposes. The spent solvent held the calorific value of higher than 3,000 cal/g, which can be used as an alternative fuel. Otherwise, the recovery of the used solvent can be conducted using distillation or chromatography techniques. Finally, the generated wastewater can be combined with the produced water and simultaneously managed by re-injection into the reservoir.

Keywords: drill cuttings, green solvent, soil washing, total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

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Authors: Hossein Anaraki-Ardakani

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A green and efficient one-pot synthesis of benzylamino coumarin derivatives by a three-component condensation of 4-hydroxycoumarin, cyclic secondary amine, and aromatic aldehyde in the presence of ZrO2 nanoparticles (NPs) as a heterogeneous catalyst in water at room temperature has been reported.

Keywords: 3-benzyl substituted coumarin derivative, ZrO2 nanoparticles (NPs), green synthesis, multicomponent reaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Getamesay Kassaye Dimru

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The cultivation of fruit tree in degraded areas has two-fold importance. Firstly, it improves food availability and income, and secondly, it promotes the conservation of soil and water improving, in turn, the productivity of the land. The main objectives of this study are to identify the determinant of farmer's fruit trees plantation decision and to major fruit production challenges and opportunities of the study area. The analysis was made using primary data collected from 60 sample household selected randomly from the study area in 2016. The primary data was supplemented by data collected from a key informant. In addition to the descriptive statistics and statistical tests (Chi-square test and t-test), a logit model was employed to identify the determinant of fruit tree plantation decision. Drought, pest incidence, land degradation, lack of input, lack of capital and irrigation schemes maintenance, lack of misuse of irrigation water and limited agricultural personnel are the major production constraints identified. The opportunities that need to further exploited are better access to irrigation, main road access, endowment of preferred guava variety, experience of farmers, and proximity of the study area to research center. The result of logit model shows that from different factors hypothesized to determine fruit tree plantation decision, age of the household head accesses to market and perception of farmers about fruits' disease and pest resistance are found to be significant. The result has revealed important implications for the promotion of fruit production for both land degradation control and rehabilitation and increasing the livelihood of farming households.

Keywords: degradation, fruit, irrigation, pest

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Authors: A. Feliczak Guzik, I. Nowak

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Zeolites, classified as microporous materials, are a large group of crystalline aluminosilicate materials commonly used in the chemical industry. These materials are characterized by large specific surface area, high adsorption capacity, hydrothermal and thermal stability. However, the micropores present in them impose strong mass transfer limitations, resulting in low catalytic performance. Consequently, mesoporous (hierarchical) zeolites have attracted considerable attention from researchers. These materials possess additional porosity in the mesopore size region (2-50 nm according to IUPAC). Mesoporous zeolites, based on commercial MFI-type zeolites modified with silver, were synthesized as follows: 0.5 g of zeolite was dispersed in a mixture containing CTABr (template), water, ethanol, and ammonia under ultrasound for 30 min at 65°C. The silicon source, which was tetraethyl orthosilicate, was then added and stirred for 4 h. After this time, silver(I) nitrate was added. In a further step, the whole mixture was filtered and washed with water: ethanol mixture. The template was removed by calcination at 550°C for 5h. All the materials obtained were characterized by the following techniques: X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), nitrogen adsorption/desorption isotherms, FTIR spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption/desorption isotherms revealed additional secondary porosity. Moreover, the structure of the commercial zeolite was preserved during most of the material syntheses. The aforementioned materials were used in the epoxidation reaction of cyclohexene using conventional heating and microwave radiation heating. The composition of the reaction mixture was analyzed every 1 h by gas chromatography. As a result, about 60% conversion of cyclohexene and high selectivity to the desired reaction products i.e., 1,2-epoxy cyclohexane and 1,2-cyclohexane diol, were obtained.

Keywords: catalytic application, characterization, epoxidation, hierarchical zeolites, synthesis

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Authors: Gergely Horváth

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The study presents the complexity of food safety dividing it into two layers. Beyond the basic layer of requirements, there is a more demanding higher level linked with quality and purity aspects. It would be important to give special prominence to both layers, given that massive illnesses are caused by foods even though officially licensed. Then the study discusses an exciting safety challenge stemming from the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Furthermore, it features legal case examples that illustrate how certain liability questions are solved or not yet decided in connection with the production of genetically modified crops. In addition, a special kind of land grabbing, more precisely land grabbing from non-GMO farming systems can also be noticed as well as a new phenomenon eroding food sovereignty. Coexistence, the state where organic, conventional, and GM farming systems are standing alongside each other is an unsuitable experiment that cannot be successful, because of biophysical reasons (such as cross-pollination). Agricultural and environmental lawyers both try to find the optimal solution. Agri-environmental measures are introduced as a special subfield of law maintaining also food safety. The important steps of agri-environmental legislation are aiming at the protection of natural values, the environmental media and strengthening food safety as well, practically the quality of agricultural products intended for human consumption. The major findings of the study focus on searching for the appropriate approach capable of solving the security and safety problems of food production. The most interesting concepts of the Hungarian national and EU food law legislation are analyzed in more detail with descriptive, analytic and comparative methods.

Keywords: food law, food safety, food security, GMO, Genetically Modified Organisms, agri-environmental measures

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Authors: Bianca Peterson, Tomasz J. Sańko, Carlos C. Bezuidenhout, Johnnie Van Den Berg

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Busseola fusca (Fuller) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), the maize stem borer, is a major pest in sub-Saharan Africa. It causes economic damage to maize and sorghum crops and has evolved non-recessive resistance to genetically modified (GM) maize expressing the Cry1Ab insecticidal toxin. Since B. fusca is a non-model organism, very little genomic information is publicly available, and is limited to some cytochrome c oxidase I, cytochrome b, and microsatellite data. The biology of B. fusca is well-described, but still poorly understood. This, in combination with its larval-specific behavior, may pose problems for limiting the spread of current resistant B. fusca populations or preventing resistance evolution in other susceptible populations. As part of on-going research into resistance evolution, B. fusca larvae were collected from Bt and non-Bt maize in South Africa, followed by RNA isolation (15 specimens) and sequencing on the Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. Quality of reads was assessed with FastQC, after which Trimmomatic was used to trim adapters and remove low quality, short reads. Trinity was used for the de novo assembly, whereas TransRate was used for assembly quality assessment. Transcript identification employed BLAST (BLASTn, BLASTp, and tBLASTx comparisons), for which two libraries (nucleotide and protein) were created from 3.27 million lepidopteran sequences. Several transcripts that have previously been implicated in Cry toxin resistance was identified for B. fusca. These included aminopeptidase N, cadherin, alkaline phosphatase, ATP-binding cassette transporter proteins, and mitogen-activated protein kinase. MEGA7 was used to align these transcripts to reference sequences from Lepidoptera to detect mutations that might potentially be contributing to Cry toxin resistance in this pest. RSEM and Bioconductor were used to perform differential gene expression analysis on groups of B. fusca larvae challenged and unchallenged with the Cry1Ab toxin. Pairwise expression comparisons of transcripts that were at least 16-fold expressed at a false-discovery corrected statistical significance (p) ≤ 0.001 were extracted and visualized in a hierarchically clustered heatmap using R. A total of 329,194 transcripts with an N50 of 1,019 bp were generated from the over 167.5 million high-quality paired-end reads. Furthermore, 110 transcripts were over 10 kbp long, of which the largest one was 29,395 bp. BLAST comparisons resulted in identification of 157,099 (47.72%) transcripts, among which only 3,718 (2.37%) were identified as Cry toxin receptors from lepidopteran insects. According to transcript expression profiles, transcripts were grouped into three subclusters according to the similarity of their expression patterns. Several immune-related transcripts (pathogen recognition receptors, antimicrobial peptides, and inhibitors) were up-regulated in the larvae feeding on Bt maize, indicating an enhanced immune status in response to toxin exposure. Above all, extremely up-regulated arylphorin genes suggest that enhanced epithelial healing is one of the resistance mechanisms employed by B. fusca larvae against the Cry1Ab toxin. This study is the first to provide a resource base and some insights into a potential mechanism of Cry1Ab toxin resistance in B. fusca. Transcriptomic data generated in this study allows identification of genes that can be targeted by biotechnological improvements of GM crops.

Keywords: epithelial healing, Lepidoptera, resistance, transcriptome

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Authors: Jackson Simon Lusagalika, Lai Hsin-Chih, Dai Yu-Tung

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Particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 meters or less are referred to as "fine particulate matter" (PM₂.₅) are easily inhaled and can go deeper into the lungs than other particles in the atmosphere, where it may have detrimental health consequences. In this study, we use a hybrid model that combined CMAQ and AERMOD as well as initial meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of power plant PM₂.₅ emissions in South Taiwan since it frequently experiences higher PM₂.₅ levels. A specific date of March 3, 2022, was chosen as a result of a power outage that prompted the bulk of power plants to shut down. In some way, it is not conceivable anywhere in the world to turn off the power for the sole purpose of doing research. Therefore, this catastrophe involving a power outage and the shutdown of power plants offers a great occasion to evaluate the impact of air pollution driven by this power sector. As a result, four numerical experiments were conducted in the study using the Continuous Emission Data System (CEMS), assuming that the power plants continued to function normally after the power outage. The hybrid model results revealed that power plants have a minor impact in the study region. However, we examined the accumulation of PM₂.₅ in the study and discovered that once the vortex at 925hPa was established and moved to the north of Taiwan's coast, the study region experienced higher observed PM₂.₅ concentrations influenced by meteorological factors. This study recommends that decision-makers take into account not only control techniques, specifically emission reductions, but also the atmospheric and meteorological implications for future investigations.

Keywords: PM₂.₅ concentration, powerplants, hybrid air quality model, CEMS, Vorticity

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Authors: Imran Hashmi, Sipkaduwa Arachchige Sashika Sureni Wickramasooriya

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Gene-drive technology has emerged as a promising tool for disease control by influencing the population dynamics of disease-carrying organisms. Various gene drive mechanisms, derived from global laboratory experiments, aim to strategically manage and prevent the spread of targeted diseases. One prominent strategy involves population replacement, wherein genetically modified mosquitoes are introduced to replace the existing local wild population. To enhance our understanding and aid in the design of effective release strategies, we employ a comprehensive mathematical model. The utilized approach employs agent-based modeling, enabling the consideration of individual mosquito attributes and flexibility in parameter manipulation. Through the integration of an agent-based model and a meta-population spatial approach, the dynamics of gene drive mosquito spreading in a released site are simulated. The model's outcomes offer valuable insights into future population dynamics, providing guidance for the development of informed release strategies. This research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on the responsible and effective implementation of gene drive technology for disease vector control.

Keywords: gene drive, agent-based modeling, disease-carrying organisms, malaria

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Authors: Alvaro Valera Sosa

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Background: In recent years, childhood overweight and obesity have become an increasing and challenging phenomenon in Berlin and Germany in general. The highest shares of childhood overweight in Berlin are district localities within the inner city ring with lowest socio-economic levels and the highest number of migration background populations. Most factors explaining overweight and obesity are linked to individual dispositions and nutrition balances. Among various strategies, to target drinking behaviors of children and adolescents has been proven to be effective. On the one hand, encouraging the intake of water – which does not contain energy and thus may support a healthy weight status – on the other hand, reducing the consumption of sugar-containing beverages – which are linked to weight gain and obesity. Anyhow, these preventive approaches have mostly developed into individual or educational interventions widely neglecting environmental modifications. Therefore, little is known on how urban physical environment patterns and features can act as influence factors for childhood overweight. Aiming the development of a physical environment intervention tackling children overweight, this study evaluated urban situations surrounding public playgrounds in Berlin where the issue is evident. It verified the presence and state of physical environmental conditions that can be conducive for children to engage physical activity and water intake. Methods: The study included public playgrounds for children from 0-12 y/o within district localities with the highest prevalence of childhood overweight, highest population density, and highest mixed uses. A systematic observation was realized to describe physical environment patterns and features that may affect children health behavior leading to overweight. Neighborhood walkability for all age groups was assessed using the Walkability for Health framework (TU-Berlin). Playground physical environment conditions were evaluated using Active Living Research assessment sheets. Finally, the food environment in the playground’s pedestrian catchment areas was reviewed focusing on: proximity to suppliers offering sugar-containing beverages, and physical access for 5 y/o children and up to drinking water following the Drinking Fountains and Public Health guidelines of the Pacific Institute. Findings: Out of 114 locations, only 7 had a child population over 3.000. Three with the lowest socio-economic index and highest percentage of migration background were selected. All three urban situations presented similar walkability: large trafficked avenues without buffer bordering at least one side of the playground, and important block to block disconnections for active travel. All three playgrounds rated equipment conditions from good to very good. None had water fountains at the reach of a 5 y/o. and all presented convenience stores and/or fast food outlets selling sugar-containing beverages nearby the perimeter. Conclusion: The three playground situations selected are representative of Berlin locations where most factors that influence children overweight are found. The results delivered urban and architectural design directives for an environmental intervention, used to study children health-related behavior. A post-intervention evaluation could prove associations between designed spaces and children overweight rate reduction creating a precedent in public health interventions and providing novel strategies for the health sector.

Keywords: children overweight, evaluation research, public playgrounds, urban design, urban health

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Authors: Urszula Stachewicz

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Surface properties of materials are the key parameter in many applications, especially in the biomedical field, to control cell-material interactions. In our work, we want to achieve the controllability of surface properties of polymer fibers via a single-step electrospinning process by alternating voltage polarities. Voltage polarity defines the charge accumulated on the surface of the liquid jet and the surface of the fibers. Positive polarity attracts negatively charged groups to fibers’ surface, whereas negative polarity moves the negatively charged functional groups away from the surface. This way, we can control the surface chemistry, wettability, and additionally surface potential of electrospun fibers. Within our research, we characterized surface chemistry using X-ray photoelectron microscopy (XPS) and surface potential with Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) on electrospun fibers of commonly used polymers such as PCL, PVDF, and PMMA, often used as biomaterials. We proved the significant effect of fibers' surface potential on cell integration with the scaffolds and further cells development for the regeneration processes based on the osteoblast and fibroblast culture studies. Acknowledgments: The study was conducted within ‘Nanofiber-based sponges for atopic skin treatment’ project, which is carried out within the First TEAM programme of the Foundation for Polish Science co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund, project no POIR.04.04.00-00- 4571/18-00.

Keywords: cell attachment, fibers, fibroblasts, osteoblast, proliferation, surface potential

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Authors: S. J. Shahidzadeh Tabatabaei, A. M. Fattahi

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Modal analysis of an FGM plate containing the ceramic phase of Al2O3 and metal phase of stainless steel 304 was performed using ABAQUS, with the assumptions that the material has an elastic mechanical behavior and its Young modulus and density are varying in thickness direction. For this purpose, a subroutine was written in FORTRAN and linked with ABAQUS. First, a simulation was performed in accordance to other researcher’s model, and then after comparing the obtained results, the accuracy of the present study was verified. The obtained results for natural frequency and mode shapes indicate good performance of user-written subroutine as well as FEM model used in present study. After verification of obtained results, the effect of clamping condition and the material type (i.e. the parameter n) was investigated. In this respect, finite element analysis was carried out in fully clamped condition for different values of n. The results indicate that the natural frequency decreases with increase of n, since with increase of n, the amount of ceramic phase in FGM plate decreases, while the amount of metal phase increases, leading to decrease of the plate stiffness and hence, natural frequency, as the Young modulus of Al2O3 is equal to 380 GPa and the Young modulus of stainless steel 304 is equal to 207 GPa.

Keywords: FGM plates, modal analysis, natural frequency, finite element method

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Authors: R. Kerbachi, S. Chikhi, M. Boughedaoui

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The study presents an analysis of the Algerian vehicle fleet and resultant emissions. The emission measurement of air pollutants emitted by road transportation (CO, THC, NOX and CO2) was conducted on 17 light duty vehicles in real traffic. This sample is representative of the Algerian light vehicles in terms of fuel quality (gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas) and the technology quality (injection system and emission control). The experimental measurement methodology of unit emission of vehicles in real traffic situation is based on the use of the mini-Constant Volume Sampler for gas sampling and a set of gas analyzers for CO2, CO, NOx and THC, with an instrumentation to measure kinematics, gas temperature and pressure. The apparatus is also equipped with data logging instrument and data transfer. The results were compared with the database of the European light vehicles (Artemis). It was shown that the technological injection liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has significant impact on air pollutants emission. Therefore, with the exception of nitrogen oxide compounds, uncatalyzed LPG vehicles are more effective in reducing emissions unit of air pollutants compared to uncatalyzed gasoline vehicles. LPG performance seems to be lower under real driving conditions than expected on chassis dynamometer. On the other hand, the results show that uncatalyzed gasoline vehicles emit high levels of carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides. Overall, and in the absence of standards in Algeria, unit emissions are much higher than Euro 3. The enforcement of pollutant emission standard in developing countries is an important step towards introducing cleaner technology and reducing vehicular emissions.

Keywords: on-board measurements of unit emissions of CO, HC, NOx and CO2, light vehicles, mini-CVS, LPG-fuel, artemis, Algeria

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Authors: C. C. Okafor, T. M. Ezeh

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The effect of addition of sweet potato leaves in replacement of wheat offal in the production of broiler chicks feed was studied. 72 day-old marshal strain chicks were used and brooded for two weeks with a normal commercial feed in Nigeria called top feed and weighed separately at the end of the two weeks, complete randomized design (CRD) was used. The weighed broiler chicks were randomly allocated to four dietary treatments. Each treatment was replicated to twice with eighteen birds per replicate. The four dietary treatment identified as T1, T2, T3 and T4. T1 served as control diet with 21% crude protein content, while T2 was prepared with Enzyme and in T3 and T4, wheat offal was replaced with sweet potato leaves and in T4 with inclusion of enzyme. Growth performance was studied using the following daily feed intake, daily weight gain and feed efficiency. The result in daily weight gain showed that chicks fed with T2 feed had the highest weight gain (93.75) while chicks fed with T3 had the least weight gain of (34.5 gm). In daily feed intake chicks fed with T4 fed more (53.06 gm) than chicks fed with T2 (51.08 gm). In feed efficiency T3 had the highest value of 30% while the T2 had the least efficiency of 22%. There was no significant difference (P≥ 0.05) in all the three parameter tested. Sweet potato leaves can replace wheat offal in broiler feed production without any adverse effect on the growth performance.

Keywords: broiler, diet, dietary, potato leaves, wheat offal

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Authors: N.Quaranta, M. Caligaris, R. Varoli, A. Cristobal, M. Unsen, H. López

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Corncobs are agricultural wastes and they can be used as fuel or as raw material in different industrial processes like cement manufacture, contaminant adsorption, chemical compound synthesis, etc. The aim of this work is to characterize this waste and analyze the feasibility of its use as a pore-forming material in the manufacture of lightweight ceramics for the civil construction industry. The characterization of raw materials is carried out by using various techniques: electron diffraction analysis X-ray, differential and gravimetric thermal analyses, FTIR spectroscopy, ecotoxicity evaluation, among others. The ground corncobs, particle size less than 2 mm, are mixed with clay up to 30% in volume and shaped by uniaxial pressure of 25 MPa, with 6% humidity, in moulds of 70mm x 40mm x 18mm. Then the green bodies are heat treated at 950°C for two hours following the treatment curves used in ceramic industry. The ceramic probes are characterized by several techniques: density, porosity and water absorption, permanent volumetric variation, loss on ignition, microscopies analysis, and mechanical properties. DTA-TGA analysis of corncobs shows in the range 20°-250°C a small loss in TGA curve and exothermic peaks at 250°-500°C. FTIR spectrum of the corncobs sample shows the characteristic pattern of this kind of organic matter with stretching vibration bands of adsorbed water, methyl groups, C–O and C–C bonds, and the complex form of the cellulose and hemicellulose glycosidic bonds. The obtained ceramic bodies present external good characteristics without loose edges and adequate properties for the market requirements. The porosity values of the sintered pieces are higher than those of the reference sample without waste addition. The results generally indicate that it is possible to use corncobs as porosity former in ceramic bodies without modifying the usual sintering temperatures employed in the industry.

Keywords: ceramic industry, biomass, recycling, hemicellulose glycosidic bonds

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Authors: P. Shahabi

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The increase in average human life expectancy has led to a growing elderly population. This demographic shift has brought forth various challenges related to the mental and physical well-being of the elderly, often resulting in a lack of dignity and respect for this valuable segment of society. These emerging social issues have cast a shadow on the lives of families, prompting the need for innovative solutions to enhance the lives of the elderly. In this study, within the context of architecture, we aim to create a pleasant and nurturing environment that combines traditional Iranian and modern architectural elements to cater to the unique needs of the elderly. Our primary research objectives encompass the following: Recognizing the societal demand for nursing homes due to the increasing elderly population, addressing the need for a conducive environment that promotes physical and mental well-being among the elderly, developing spatial designs that are specifically tailored to the elderly population, ensuring their comfort and convenience. To achieve these objectives, we have undertaken a comprehensive exploration of the challenges and issues faced by the elderly. We have also laid the groundwork for the architectural design of nursing homes, culminating in the presentation of an architectural plan aimed at minimizing the difficulties faced by the elderly and enhancing their quality of life. It is noteworthy that many of the existing nursing homes in Iran lack the necessary welfare and safety conditions required for the elderly. Hence, our research aims to establish comprehensive and suitable criteria for the optimal design of nursing homes. We believe that through optimal design, we can create spaces that are not only diverse, attractive, and dynamic but also significantly improve the quality of life for the elderly. We hold the hope that these homes will serve as beacons of hope and tranquility for all individuals in their later years.

Keywords: care home, elderly, optimum design, support

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Authors: Sarkawt M. Hama, Paul S. Monks, Rebecca L. Cordell

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Within the Joaquin project, ultrafine particles (UFP) are continuously measured at one urban background site in Leicester. The main aims are to examine the temporal and seasonal variations in UFP number concentration and size distribution in an urban environment, and to try to assess the added value of continuous UFP measurements. In addition, relations of UFP with more commonly monitored pollutants such as black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM2.5), and the lung deposited surface area(LDSA) were evaluated. The effects of meteorological conditions, particularly wind speed and direction, and also temperature on the observed distribution of ultrafine particles will be detailed. The study presents the results from an experimental investigation into the particle number concentration size distribution of UFP, BC, and NOX with measurements taken at the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) monitoring site in Leicester. The monitoring was performed as part of the EU project JOAQUIN (Joint Air Quality Initiative) supported by the INTERREG IVB NWE program. The total number concentrations (TNC) were measured by a water-based condensation particle counter (W-CPC) (TSI model 3783), the particle number concentrations (PNC) and size distributions were measured by an ultrafine particle monitor (UFP TSI model 3031), the BC by MAAP (Thermo-5012), the NOX by NO-NO2-NOx monitor (Thermos Scientific 42i), and a Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM, TSI 3550) was used to measure the LDSA (reported as μm2 cm−3) corresponding to the alveolar region of the lung between November 2013 and November 2015. The average concentrations of particle number concentrations were observed in summer with lower absolute values of PNC than in winter might be related mainly to particles directly emitted by traffic and to the more favorable conditions of atmospheric dispersion. Results showed a traffic-related diurnal variation of UFP, BC, NOX and LDSA with clear morning and evening rush hour peaks on weekdays, only an evening peak at the weekends. Correlation coefficients were calculated between UFP and other pollutants (BC and NOX). The highest correlation between them was found in winter months. Overall, the results support the notion that local traffic emissions were a major contributor of the atmospheric particles pollution and a clear seasonal pattern was found, with higher values during the cold season.

Keywords: size distribution, traffic emissions, UFP, urban area

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Authors: A. A. Purohit, A. Basu, K. A. Chavan, M. D. Kudale

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Many estuarine harbours in the world are facing the problem of siltation in docks, channel entrances, etc. The harbours in India are not an exception and require maintenance dredging to achieve navigable depths for keeping them operable. Hence, dredging is inevitable and is a costly affair. The heavy siltation in docks in well mixed tide dominated estuaries is mainly due to settlement of cohesive sediments in suspension. As such there is a need to have a permanent solution for minimising the siltation in such docks to alter the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation by constructing structures outside the dock. One of such docks on the west coast of India, wherein siltation of about 2.5-3 m/annum prevails, was considered to understand the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation. The dock is situated in such a region where macro type of semi-diurnal tide (range of about 5m) prevails. In order to change the flow field responsible for siltation inside the dock, suitability of Current Deflecting Wall (CDW) outside the dock was studied, which will minimise the sediment exchange rate and siltation in the dock. The well calibrated physical tidal model was used to understand the flow field during various phases of tide for the existing dock in Mumbai harbour. At the harbour entrance where the tidal flux exchanges in/out of the dock, measurements on water level and current were made to estimate the sediment transport capacity. The distorted scaled model (1:400 (H) & 1:80 (V)) of Mumbai area was used to study the tidal flow phenomenon, wherein tides are generated by automatic tide generator. Hydraulic model studies carried out under the existing condition (without CDW) reveal that, during initial hours of flood tide, flow hugs the docks breakwater and part of flow which enters the dock forms number of eddies of varying sizes inside the basin, while remaining part of flow bypasses the entrance of dock. During ebb, flow direction reverses, and part of the flow re-enters the dock from outside and creates eddies at its entrance. These eddies do not allow water/sediment-mass to come out and result in settlement of sediments in dock both due to eddies and more retention of sediment. At latter hours, current strength outside the dock entrance reduces and allows the water-mass of dock to come out. In order to improve flow field inside the dockyard, two CDWs of length 300 m and 40 m were proposed outside the dock breakwater and inline to Pier-wall at dock entrance. Model studies reveal that, during flood, major flow gets deflected away from the entrance and no eddies are formed inside the dock, while during ebb flow does not re-enter the dock, and sediment flux immediately starts emptying it during initial hours of ebb. This reduces not only the entry of sediment in dock by about 40% but also the deposition by about 42% due to less retention. Thus, CDW is a promising solution to significantly reduce siltation in dock.

Keywords: current deflecting wall, eddies, hydraulic model, macro tide, siltation

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Authors: Olha Mostova, Maciej Stolarski, Gerald Matthews

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The present paper explores and tests Gary Chapman’s claims that (1) people vary in the ways they prefer to receive and express affection and (2) romantic partners, who communicate their feelings correspondingly to their partner’s preferences, experience greater relationship quality. The author proposes five distinct preferences for and tendencies to express love, including acts of service, physical touch, words of affirmation, quality time, and gifts. In the present study, partners (N = 100 romantic, heterosexual couples) completed measures assessing their preferences and behavioral tendencies reflecting 1) how they a) tend to express and b) prefer to receive signs of affection in correspondence to the five proposed categories; 2) relationship satisfaction; 3) sexual satisfaction and 4) empathy, which was expected to be the factor that leads to a better understanding of and responding to the partner’s needs. The degree of the within-couple match was calculated separately for each individual based on the discrepancies between one’s felt (preferred) and their partner’s expressed love language. The joint discrepancy indicator was a sum of such discrepancies across the five love languages. Conducted analyses provided evidence for significant associations between matching on love languages and both relationship and sexual satisfaction. In particular, people who expressed their affection in the way their partners preferred to receive it experienced greater satisfaction with their relationships and were more sexually satisfied compared to those who met their partner’s needs to a lesser extent. Other results provide some support for mediating effects of certain domains of empathy in the said associations among male but not female participants.

Keywords: affection, empathy, love languages, relationship satisfaction, romantic couples, sexual satisfaction

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Authors: Raphaelle Guillou, Matthieu Le Saux, Jean-Christophe Brachet, Thomas Guilbert, Elodie Rouesne, Denis Menut, Caroline Toffolon-Masclet, Dominique Thiaudiere

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In some hypothetical accidental situations, such as during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in pressurized water reactors, fuel cladding tubes made of zirconium alloys can be exposed for a few minutes to steam at High Temperature (HT up to 1200°C) before being cooled and then quenched in water. Under LOCA-like conditions, the cladding undergoes a number of metallurgical changes (phase transformations, oxygen diffusion and growth of an oxide layer...) and is consequently submitted to internal stresses whose state evolves during the transient. These stresses can have an effect on the oxide structure and the oxidation kinetics of the material. They evolve during cooling, owing to differences between the thermal expansion coefficients of the various phases and phase transformations of the metal and the oxide. These stresses may result in the failure of the cladding during quenching, once the material is embrittled by oxidation. In order to progress in the evaluation of these internal stresses, X-ray diffraction experiments were performed in-situ under synchrotron radiation during HT oxidation and subsequent cooling on Zircaloy-4 sheet samples. First, structural evolutions, such as phase transformations, have been studied as a function of temperature for both the oxide layer and the metallic substrate. Then, internal stresses generated within the material oxidized at temperatures between 700 and 900°C have been evaluated thanks to the 2θ diffraction peak position shift measured during the in-situ experiments. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis was performed on the samples after cooling in order to characterize their crystallographic texture. Furthermore, macroscopic strains induced by oxidation in the conditions investigated during the in-situ X-ray diffraction experiments were measured in-situ in a dilatometer.

Keywords: APRP, stains measurements, synchrotron diffraction, zirconium allows

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Alparslan A. Balta, Hilmi Yurdakul, Orkun Tunckan, Servet Turan, Arife Yurdakul

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Si2N2O (Sinoite) is an inorganic-based oxynitride material that reveals promising phosphor candidates for white light-emitting diodes (WLEDs). However, there is now limited knowledge to explain the synthesis of Si2N2O for this purpose. Here, to the best of authors’ knowledge, we report the first time the production of Si2N2O based phosphors by CeO2, SiO2, Si3N4 from main starting powders, and Li2O sintering additive through spark plasma sintering (SPS) route. The processing parameters, e.g., pressure, temperature, and sintering time, were optimized to reach the monophase Si2N2O containing samples. The lattice parameter, crystallite size, and amount of formation phases were characterized in detail by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Grain morphology, particle size, and distribution were analyzed by scanning and transmission electron microscopes (SEM and TEM). Cathodoluminescence (CL) in SEM and photoluminescence (PL) analyses were conducted on the samples to determine the excitation, and emission characteristics of Ce3+ activated Si2N2O. Results showed that the Si2N2O phase in a maximum 90% ratio was obtained by sintering for 15 minutes at 1650oC under 30 MPa pressure. Based on the SEM-CL and PL measurements, Ce3+: Si2N2O phosphor shows a broad emission summit between 400-700 nm that corresponds to white light. The present research was supported by TUBITAK under project number 217M667.

Keywords: cerium, oxynitride, phosphors, sinoite, Si₂N₂O

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Authors: Calvin Rong, Regina Agassian, Mindy Engle-Friedman

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Climate changes, including rising sea levels and increases in global temperature, can have major effects on resource availability, leading to increased competition for resources and rising food prices. The abstract nature and often delayed consequences of many ecological problems cause people focus on immediate, specific, and personal events and circumstances that compel immediate and emotional involvement. This finding may be explained by the challenges humans have in imagining themselves in the future, a shortcoming that interferes with decision-making involving far-off rewards, and leads people to indicate a lower concern toward the future than to present circumstances. The present study sought to assess whether priming people to think of themselves in the future might strengthen the connection to their future selves and stimulate environmentally-protective behavior. We hypothesize that priming participants to think about themselves in the future would increase concern for the future environment. 45 control participants were primed to think about themselves in the present, and 42 participants were primed to think about themselves in the futures. After priming, the participants rated their concern over access to clean water, food, and energy on a scale of 1 to 10. They also rated their predicted care levels for the environment at age points 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 on a scale of 1(not at all) to 10 (very much). Predicted care levels at age 90 for the experimental group was significantly higher than for the control group. Overall the experimental group rated their concern for resources higher than the control. In comparison to the control group (M=7.60, SD=2.104) participants in the experimental group had greater concern for clean water (M=8.56, SD=1.534). In comparison to the control group (M=7.49, SD=2.041) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about food resources (M=8.41, SD=1.830). In comparison to the control group (M=7.22, SD=1.999) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about energy resources (M=8.07, SD=1.967). This study assessed whether a priming strategy could be used to encourage pro-environmental practices that protect limited resources. Future-self priming helped participants see past short term issues and focus on concern for the future environment.

Keywords: climate change, future, priming, global warming

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Authors: Ombir Singh

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In spite of the religious and cultural pre-dominance of the river Ganga in the Indian ethos, fragmentation and degradation of the river continued down the ages. Recognizing the national concern on environmental degradation of the river and its basin, Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR,RD&GR), Government of India has initiated a number of pilot schemes for the rejuvenation of river Ganga under the ‘Namami Gange’ Programme. Considering the diversity, complexity, and intricacies of forest ecosystems and pivotal multiple functions performed by them and their inter-connectedness with highly dynamic river ecosystems, forestry interventions all along the river Ganga from its origin at Gaumukh, Uttarakhand to its mouth at Ganga Sagar, West Bengal has been planned by the ministry. For that Forest Research Institute (FRI) in collaboration with National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) has prepared a Detailed Project Report (DPR) on Forestry Interventions for Ganga. The Institute has adopted an extensive consultative process at the national and state levels involving various stakeholders relevant in the context of river Ganga and employed a science-based methodology including use of remote sensing and GIS technologies for geo-spatial analysis, modeling and prioritization of sites for proposed forestation and conservation interventions. Four sets of field data formats were designed to obtain the field based information for forestry interventions, mainly plantations and conservation measures along the river course. In response, five stakeholder State Forest Departments had submitted more than 8,000 data sheets to the Institute. In order to analyze a voluminous field data received from five participating states, the Institute also developed a software to collate, analyze and generation of reports on proposed sites in Ganga basin. FRI has developed potential plantation and treatment models for the proposed forestry and other conservation measures in major three types of landscape components visualized in the Ganga riverscape. These are: (i) Natural, (ii) Agriculture, and (iii) Urban Landscapes. Suggested plantation models broadly varied for the Uttarakhand Himalayas and the Ganga Plains in five participating states. Besides extensive plantations in three type of landscapes within the riverscape, various conservation measures such as soil and water conservation, riparian wildlife management, wetland management, bioremediation and bio-filtration and supporting activities such as policy and law intervention, concurrent research, monitoring and evaluation, and mass awareness campaigns have been envisioned in the DPR. The DPR also incorporates the details of the implementation mechanism, budget provisioned for different components of the project besides allocation of budget state-wise to five implementing agencies, national partner organizations and the Nodal Ministry.

Keywords: conservation, Ganga, river, water, forestry interventions

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Authors: Man Chul Jeong, Hyoung Jin Lee, Sang Yoon Lee, Ji Hyun Park, Min Wook Chang, In-Seuck Jeung

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This study focus on the drag reduction effect of the base bleed at supersonic flow. Base bleed is the method which bleeds the gas on the tail of the flight vehicle and reduces the base drag, which occupies over 50% of the total drag in any flight speed. Thus base bleed can reduce the total drag significantly, and enhance the total flight range. Drag reduction ratio of the base bleed is strongly related to the mass flow rate of the bleeding gas. Thus selecting appropriate mass flow rate is important. However, since the flight vehicle has various flight speed, same mass flow rate of the base bleed can have different drag reduction effect during the flight. Thus, this study investigates the effect of the drag reduction depending on the flight speed by numerical analysis using STAR-CCM+. The analysis model is 155mm diameter projectile with boat-tailed shape base. Angle of the boat-tail is chosen previously for minimum drag coefficient. Numerical analysis is conducted for Mach 2 and Mach 3, with various mass flow rate, or the injection parameter I, of the bleeding gas and the temperature of the bleeding gas, is fixed to 300K. The results showed that I=0.025 has the minimum drag at Mach 2, and I=0.014 has the minimum drag at Mach 3. Thus as the Mach number is higher, the lower mass flow rate of the base bleed has more effect on drag reduction.

Keywords: base bleed, supersonic, drag reduction, recirculation

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Authors: Sasirin Srisomkiew, Sireewan Ratsadornasai, Tanomkwan Tipvong, Isariya Meesing

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Cassava is an important food source in the tropics and has recently gained attention as a potential source of biofuel that can replace limited fossil fuel sources. As a result, the demand for cassava production to support industries both within the country and abroad has increased. In Thailand, most farmers prefer to grow cassava in sandy and sandy loam areas where the soil has low natural fertility. Cassava is a tuber plant that has large roots to store food, resulting in the absorption of large amounts of nutrients from the soil, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Therefore, planting cassava in the same area for a long period causes soil erosion and decreases soil fertility. The loss of soil fertility affects the economy, society, and food and energy security of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to know the level of soil fertility and the amount of nutrients in the soil. To address this problem, this study applies geo-informatics technology and mathematical equations to assess erosion and soil fertility and to analyze factors affecting the amount of cassava production in Maha Sarakham Province. The results show that the area for cassava cultivation has increased in every district of Maha Sarakham Province between 2015-2022, with the total area increasing to 180,922 rai or 5.47% of the province’s total area during this period. Furthermore, it was found that it is possible to assess areas with soil erosion problems that had a moderate level of erosion in areas with high erosion rates ranging from 5-15 T/rai/year. Soil fertility assessment and information obtained from the soil nutrient map for 2015–2023 reveal that farmers in the area have improved the soil by adding chemical fertilizers along with organic fertilizers, such as manure and green manure, to increase the amount of nutrients in the soil. This is because the soil resources of Maha Sarakham Province mostly have relatively low agricultural potential due to the soil texture being sand and sandy loam. In this scenario, the ability to absorb nutrients is low, and the soil holds little water, so it is naturally low in fertility. Moreover, agricultural soil problems were found, including the presence of saline soil, sandy soil, and acidic soil, which is a serious restriction on land use because it affects the release of nutrients into the soil. The results of this study may be used as a guideline for managing soil resources and improving soil quality to prevent soil degradation problems that may occur in the future.

Keywords: Cassava, geoinformatics, soil erosion, soil fertility, land use change

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Authors: Y. Abdul Aziz, E. L. K. Osafo, S. O. Apori, A. Osman

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A sixteen week trial was conducted at the Research Farm (Technology Village) of the Department of Animal Science, School of Agriculture, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana. This study sought to investigate the effects of Probiotic (RE3) on growth performance, diarrhea incidence and blood parameters of N’dama calves. Sixteen N’dama calves aged 3 months of an average initial weight of 44.2 kg were randomly assigned to one of four dietary treatments according to their body weight, age, and sex. Treatment 1 (T1) serve as a control animal (No RE3 supplementation). Treatment 2 (T2) receives 0.03 ml RE3 per kg body weight. Treatment 3 (T3) receives 0.06 ml RE3 per kg body weight, and Treatment 4 (T4) also receives 0.09 ml RE3 per kg body weight in a Completely Randomize Design (CRD). There were 4 replicates per treatment. The calves were allowed access to feed and water ad libitum. The body weight of the calves was recorded at the start of the experiment and thereafter regularly at two weeks interval. Weighing was done early morning before the calves are allowed to access feed and water and were also observed in their pens for occurrence of diarrhea and faecal scores recorded. Blood samples were obtained from each calf at the end of the study through jugular vein puncture. Supplementation of RE3 to calves had showed a beneficial effect by reducing the incidence of diarrhea. The highest faecal score was recorded in T1 and the least faecal score was recorded in T3. There was significant difference (P < 0.05) in the faecal score between the treatment group and the control after two weeks of the experiment. There was no significant difference (P > 0.05) in the average daily gain of the animals. Hematological and biochemical indices of calves were all within the normal range except in treatments (1, 3 and 4) which recorded high White Blood Cell (WBC) count with no significant difference (P > 0.05).

Keywords: probiotics (RE3), diarrhea incidence, blood parameters, N’dama calves

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Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

Procedia PDF Downloads 119