Search results for: risk behaviors

Authors: Jirapan Khruesarn, Wimwipa Boonklin

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Background: Currently, Thailand has an aging population. In 2017, the elderly population was over 11.14 million. There will be an increase in the number of elderly people, 8.39 million, some people grumble to themselves and have conflicts with their offspring or those close to them. It is a source of stress. Mental health promotion should be given to the elderly in order to cope with these changes. Due to the family characteristics of Thai society, these family members will act as caregivers for the elderly. Therefore, a group-counseling program based on Personnel-Centered Theory for Elderly Caregivers in Mental Health Promotion for Older People in Na Kaeo Municipality, Kau Ka District, Lampang Province, has been developed to compare the elderly care behavior before and after the participation. Methods: This research was study for 20 elderly' caregiver: Those aimed to compare the before and after use of group program for caregiver to promoting for the elderly by the following methods: Step 1 Establish a framework for evaluating elderly care behaviors and develop a group counseling program for promote mental health for elderly on: 1) Body 2) Willpower 3) Social and community management and 4) Organizing learning process. Step 2 Assessing an Elderly Care Behaviors by using "The behavior assessment on caring for the elderly" and assessing the mental health power level of the elderly and follow the counseling program 9 times and compare of the elderly care behaviors before and after joined a group program, and compare of mental health level of caregiver attends a group program. Results: This study is developing a group counseling program to promoting for the resilience quotient in elderly people that the results of the study could be summarized as follows: 1) Before the elderly's caregivers join a group counseling program: Mental health promotion behaviors of the elderly were at the high level of (3.32), and after: were at the high level of (3.44). 2) Before the elderly's caregiver attends a group counseling program: the mental health level of the elderly the mean score was (47.85 percent), and the standard deviation was (0.21 percent) and after. The elderly had a higher score of (51.45 percent) In summary, after the elderly caregivers joined the group, the elderly are higher in all aspects promote mental health for elderly and the statistically significance at the 0.05, It shows that programs are fit for personal and community condition in promoting the mental health of the elderly because this theory has the idea that: Humans have the ability to use their intelligence to solve problems or make decisions effectively, And member of group counseling program have ventured and express grievances that the counselor is a facilitator who focuses on personal development by building relationships among people. In other words, the factors contributing to higher levels of elderly care behaviors is group counseling, that isn't a hypothetical process but focus on building relationships that are based on mutual trust and Unconditional acceptance.

Keywords: group counseling base on person-centered theory, elderly person, resilience quotient: RQ, caregiver

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Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

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Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, Retailer

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Authors: Shu-Hui Wen, Wei-Chuan Chang, Hsien-Chang Wu

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Background: Little is known about the benefits and risks of use of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in conditions related to hormone therapy (HT) use on the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study is to explore the risk of IS in menopausal women treated with HT and CHM. Materials and methods: A total of 32,441 menopausal women without surgical menopause aged 40- 65 years were selected from 2003 to 2010 using the 2-million random samples of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. According to the medication usage of HT and CHM, we divided the current and recent users into two groups: an HT use-only group (n = 4,989) and an HT/CHM group (n = 9,265). Propensity-score matching samples (4,079 pairs) were further created to deal with confounding by indication. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of IS during HT or CHM treatment were estimated by the robust Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The incidence rate of IS in the HT/CHM group was significantly lower than in the HT group (4.5 vs. 12.8 per 1000 person-year, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis results indicated that additional CHM use was significant with a lower risk of IS (HR = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.43). Further subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses had similar findings. Conclusion: We found that combined use of HT and CHM was associated with a lower risk for IS than HT use only. Further study is needed to examine possible mechanism underlying this association.

Keywords: Chinese herbal medicine, hormone therapy, ischemic stroke, menopause

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: S. Ali, M. Baccar

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In this work, numerical simulations were carried out using a specific CFD code in order to study the performance of an innovative Scraped Surface Heat Exchanger (SSHE) with helical ribbons for Bingham fluids (threshold fluids). The resolution of three-dimensional form of the conservation equations (continuity, momentum and energy equations) was carried out basing on the finite volume method (FVM). After studying the effect of dimensionless numbers (axial Reynolds, rotational Reynolds and Oldroyd numbers) on the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviors within SSHE, a parametric study was developed, by varying the width of the helical ribbon, the clearance between the stator wall and the tip of the ribbon and the number of turns of the helical ribbon, in order to improve the heat transfer inside the exchanger. The effect of these geometrical numbers on the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviors was discussed.

Keywords: heat transfer, helical ribbons, hydrodynamic behavior, parametric study, SSHE, thermal behavior

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Authors: Patrick Guggenberger

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Extant literature has highlighted the importance of individual employees in the entrepreneurial process, as they are those that come up with novel ideas and promote their implementation throughout the organization. However, research on antecedents of individual entrepreneurial behavior (IEB) is very limited. The present study takes an initial step to investigate the interplay between transformational leader behaviors of direct supervisors and employees’ ability and willingness to act entrepreneurial and sheds light on the moderating role of an individual’s hierarchical level. A theoretically derived research model is empirically tested, drawing on survey data of 450 individuals working in medium- and large-sized corporations in two countries. Findings indicate that various transformational leader behaviors have a strong positive impact on IEB, while the ability of direct supervisors to influence their followers’ entrepreneurial behavior depends strongly on their own hierarchical level. The study reveals that transformational leadership has most impact at lower hierarchical levels, where employees’ motivation to act entrepreneurial is the lowest.

Keywords: corporate entrepreneurship, hierarchy, individual entrepreneurial behavior, transformational leadership

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Authors: Xiping Guo, Jing Li

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The microstructure of an Si-Al-Y co-deposition coating prepared on an Nb-Si based ultra high temperature alloy by pack cementation process at 1250°C for eight hours was studied. The results showed that the coating was composed of a (Nb,X)Si₂ (X represents Ti, Cr and Hf elements) outer layer, a (Ti,Nb)₅Si₄ middle layer and an Al, Cr-rich inner layer. For comparison, the oxidation behaviors of the coating at 800, 1050 and 1350°C were investigated respectively. Linear oxidation kinetics was found with the parabolic rate constants of 5.29×10⁻², 9×10⁻²and 5.81 mg² cm⁻⁴ h⁻¹, respectively. Catastrophic pesting oxidation has not been found at 800°C even for 100 h. The surface of the scale was covered by compact glassy SiO₂ film. The coating was able to effectively protect the Nb-Si based alloy from oxidation at 1350°C for at least 100 h. The formation process of the scale was testified following an epitaxial growth mechanism. The mechanism responsible for the oxidation behavior of the Si-Al-Y co-deposition coating at 800, 1050 and 1350°C was proposed.

Keywords: Nb-Si based ultra high temperature alloy, oxidation resistance, pack cementation, silicide coating, Al and Y modified

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Weiyao Zhu, Bingbing Li, Yajing Liu, Zhiyong Song

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Branched-preformed particle gel (B-PPG) is a newly developed profile control and oil displacement agent for enhanced oil recovery in major oilfields. To provide a better understanding of the performance of B-PPG in high temperature reservoirs, a comprehensive experimental investigation was conducted by utilizing glass micromodel and synthetic core. The microscopic experimental results show that the B-PPG can selectively flow and plug in large pores. In terms of enhanced oil recovery, the decrease of residual oil in the margin regions (24.6%) was higher than that in the main stream (13.7%), which indicates it enlarged the sweep area. In addition, the effects of B-PPG injection concentration and injection rate on enhanced oil recovery were implemented by core flooding. The macroscopic experimental results indicate that the enhanced oil recovery increased with the increasing of injection concentration. However, the injection rate had a peak value. It is significant to get insight into the behaviors of B-PPG in reservoirs.

Keywords: branched-preformed particle gel, enhanced oil recovery, micromodel, core flooding

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Authors: Alejandro Arnaldo Barroso Martinez

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Unlike sex, which is constituted by anatomic-physiological differences, gender is a social construction. Our thoughts and behaviors as females and males are not etched in stone by our biology but rather from how society expects us to think and behave based on our sex assignment in the womb. Social expectations, values, and roles are taken on by individuals and shape the ways considered acceptable and linked to our bodies, feelings, and interpersonal relationships. Furthermore, these evolve into dire consequences for those who do not meet these disciplinary, economic, and cultural standards. Then, the social learning of gender identity implies the individual’s psychological sense of being, and it might be highly linked to a sense of life and suicide attempts. As a result, suicide has been considered a gender issue with differences in the rates and means used by men and women worldwide. Nevertheless, there has been a misunderstanding of the meaning of being male or female in a particular context and how it becomes a risk process for suicide attempts. For this reason, the general objective of the current research is to explain how this process occurs in Cuba. From a Critical Sociology and Social Psychology, a qualitative methodology was developed through six case studies and qualitative in-depth interviews. The analysis is focused on the sequence and interplay between two dimensions of meaning: signifiers and voices. Findings show that the risk process of suicide attempts in Cuba means some patriarchal beliefs and practices as part of informal educational models and some positivist practices in mental health attention. Findings also show that community relations create a sense of belonging, and it is a protection against suicide attempts in Cuba. Those frames of signifiers and voices explain in both males and females but differently when and how they are suffering from isolation, violence, the normalization of emotional awareness, and emotional distress expression. Suicide prevention programs should take gender learning into account as a cultural process.

Keywords: social constructions, gender identity, meanings, suicide attempt

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Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander

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Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.

Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP

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Authors: Binh Thanh Ta, Elizabeth Sturgiss

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Central to patient-centered care is the idea of treating a patient as a person and understanding their perspectives regarding their health conditions and care preferences. Surprisingly, little is known about how GPs can understand their patients’ perspectives. This paper addresses the challenge of understanding patient perspectives in behavior change consultations by adopting Conversation Analysis (CA), which is an empirical research approach that allows both researchers and the audience to examine patients’ perspectives as displayed in GP-patient interaction. To understand people’s perspectives, CA researchers do not rely on what they say but instead on how they demonstrate their endogenous orientations to social norms when they interact with each other. Underlying CA is the notion that social interaction is orderly by all means. (It is important to note that social orders should not be treated as exogenous sets of rules that predetermine human behaviors. Rather social orders are constructed and oriented by social members through their interactional practices. Also, note that these interactional practices are the resources shared by all social members). As CA offers tools to uncover the orderliness of interactional practices, it not only allows us to understand the perspective of a particular patient in a particular medical encounter but, more importantly, enables us to recognise the shared interactional practice for signifying a particular perspective. Drawing on the 10 video-recorded consultations on behavior change in primary care, we have discovered the orderliness of patient laughter when reporting health behaviors, which signifies their orientation to the problematic nature of the reported behaviors. Among 24 cases where patients reported their health behaviors, we found 19 cases in which they laughed while speaking. In the five cases where patients did not laugh, we found that they explicitly framed their behavior as unproblematic. This finding echoes the CA body research on laughter, which suggests that laughter produced by first speakers (as opposed to laughing in response to what has been said earlier) normally indicates some sort of problems oriented to the self (e.g. self-tease, self-depreciation, etc.). This finding points to the significance of understanding when and why patients laugh; such understanding would assist GPs to recognise whether patients treat their behavior as problematic or not, thereby producing responses sensitive to patient perspectives.

Keywords: patient centered care, laughter, conversation analysis, primary care, behaviour change consultations

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Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

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Authors: T. Lazzarini, M. Imbiki, P. E. Sutter, G. Borragan

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While several strategies, such as the development of more efficient appliances, the financing of insulation programs or the rolling out of smart meters represent promising tools to reduce future energy consumption, their implementation relies on people’s decisions-actions. Likewise, engaging with consumers to reshape their behavior has shown to be another important way to reduce energy usage. For these reasons, integrating the human factor in the energy transition has become a major objective for researchers and policymakers. Digital education programs based on tangible and gamified user interfaces have become a new tool with potential effects to reduce energy consumption4. The B2020 program, developed by the firm “Économie d’Énergie SAS”, proposes a digital platform to encourage pro-environmental behavior change among employees and citizens. The platform integrates 160 eco-behaviors to help saving energy and water and reducing waste and CO2 emissions. A total of 13,146 citizens have used the tool so far to declare the range of eco-behaviors they adopt in their daily lives. The present work seeks to build on this database to identify the potential impact of adopted energy-saving behaviors (n=62) to reduce the use of energy in buildings. To this end, behaviors were classified into three categories regarding the nature of its implementation (Eco-habits: e.g., turning-off the light, Eco-actions: e.g., installing low carbon technology such as led light-bulbs and Home-Refurbishments: e.g., such as wall-insulation or double-glazed energy efficient windows). General Linear Models (GLM) disclosed the existence of a significantly higher frequency of Eco-habits when compared to the number of home-refurbishments realized by the platform users. While this might be explained in part by the high financial costs that are associated with home renovation works, it also contrasts with the up to three times larger energy-savings that can be accomplished by these means. Furthermore, multiple regression models failed to disclose the expected relationship between energy-savings and frequency of adopted eco behaviors, suggesting that energy-related practices are not necessarily driven by the correspondent energy-savings. Finally, our results also suggested that people adopting more Eco-habits and Eco-actions were more likely to engage in Home-Refurbishments. Altogether, these results fit well with a growing body of scientific research, showing that energy-related practices do not necessarily maximize utility, as postulated by traditional economic models, and suggest that other variables might be triggering them. Promoting home refurbishments could benefit from the adoption of complementary energy-saving habits and actions.

Keywords: energy-saving behavior, human performance, behavioral change, energy efficiency

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Authors: Jimin Yun, Yebeen Ji, Kwonhoo Kim

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Magnesium and Mg-Ag system alloys are known to be promising biomaterials due to their high specific strengths and biocompatibility. Because the limited numbers of slip systems were activated in the HCP structure at room temperature, their formability was low. To solve these problems, much research about the improvement of room-temperature formability has been studied, but the microstructure development behaviors of Mg-Ag alloys were still limited. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the texture development behaviors of Mg-Ag alloy during high-temperature plane strain deformation. The Ag content of the Mg-Ag alloy used in this study was 3.0, 5.0, and 9.0 wt%. Hot rolling was performed at a temperature of 673K with a reduction ratio of 25%, and these specimens were annealed for 1H at 773K, followed by water quenching at room temperature. High-temperature plane strain deformation was performed under temperatures of 623K and 723K, with strain rates from 0.1/s to 0.05/s and strain from -0.4 to –1.0. As a result, it showed a microstructure and texture similar to the AZ61 alloy, which had been studied previously. It was confirmed that the basal texture became stronger with increasing strains at high-temperature plane strain deformation.

Keywords: Mg-Ag, texture, microstructure development behavior, AZ61

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Authors: Alev Atak

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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

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Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

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Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

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The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

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Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

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The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 208