Search results for: risk and return analysis

Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Anna Paola Micheli, Anna Maria Calce, Loris Di Nallo

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Sustainable finance identifies the process that leads, in the adoption of investment decisions, to take into account environmental and social factors, with the aim of orienting investments towards sustainable and long-term activities. Considering that the topic is at the center of the interest of national agendas, long-term investments will no longer be analyzed only by looking at financial data, but environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors will be increasingly important and will play a fundamental role in determining the risk and return of an investment. Although this perspective does not deny the orientation to profit, ESG mutual funds represent sustainable finance applied to the world of mutual funds. So the goal of this paper is to verify this attitude, in particular in the energy sector. The choice of the sector is not casual: ESG is the acronym for environmental, social, and governance, and energy companies are strictly related to the environmental theme. The methodology adopted leads to a comparison between a sample of ESG funds and a sample of ESG funds with similar characteristics, using the most important indicators of literature: yield, standard deviation, and Sharpe index. The analysis is focused on equity funds. Results that are partial, due to the lack of historicity, show a good performance of ESG funds, testifying how a sustainable approach does not necessarily mean lower profits. It is clear that these first findings do not involve an absolute preference for ESG funds in terms of performance because the persistence of results is requested. Furthermore, these findings are to be verified in other sectors and in bond funds.

Keywords: mutual funds, ESG, performance, energy

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

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Introduction: It is well known that patients with Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) are at increased risk of subsequent head and neck cancers due to various aetiologies. Aim: We sought to determine the factors contributing to an increased risk of subsequent HNC primaries, and also to evaluate whether Aboriginal patients are at increased risk. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 HNC patients from a single centre in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal patients and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by site, histology, rurality, and age. We collected patient data including smoking and alcohol consumption, tumour and treatment data, and data on subsequent HNC primaries. Results: A subsequent HNC primary was seen in 37 patients (11.6%) overall. There was no significant difference in the rate of second primary HNCs between Aboriginal patients (12.5%) and nonAboriginal patients (11.2%) (p=0.408). Subsequent HNCs, were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol consumption however, with 95% of patients with a second primary being ever-smokers, and 54% of patients with a second primary having a history of excessive alcohol consumption. In the 37 patients with multiple HNC primaries, there were a total of 57 HNCs, with 29 patients having two primaries, six patients having 3 HNC primaries, one patient with four, and one with six. 54 out of the 57 cancers were in ever smokers (94.7%). There were only two multiple HNC primaries in a never smoker, non-drinker, and these cases were of unknown etiology with HPV/p16 status unknown in both cases. In the whole study population, there were 32 HPV-positive HNCs, and 67 p16-positive HNCs, with only two 2 nd HNCs in a p16-positive case, giving a rate of 3% in the p16+ population, which is actually much lower than the rate of second primaries seen in the overall population (11.6%), and was highest in the p16-negative population (15.7%). This suggests that p16-positivity is not a strong risk factor for subsequent primaries, and in fact p16-negativity appeared to be associated with increased risk, however this data is limited by the large number of patients without documented p16 status (45.3% overall, 12% for oropharyngeal, and 59.6% for oral cavity primaries had unknown p16 status). Summary: Subsequent HNC primaries were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol excess. Second and later HNC primaries did not appear to occur at increased rates in Aboriginal patients compared with non-Aboriginal patients, and p16-positivity did not predict increased risk, however p16-negativity was associated with an increased risk of subsequent HNCs.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, multiple primaries, aboriginal, p16 status, smoking, alcohol

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Karlygash Tulendieva

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Presently vaccination is the most effective method of prevention of flu and its complications. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of the increase of coverage of the population of South Kazakhstan region with flu vaccination and decrease of the ARVI morbidity. The analysis was performed on the data of flu vaccination of risk groups, including children under one year and pregnant women. Data on ARVI morbidity during 2010-2015 and data on vaccination were taken from the reports of the Epidemiological Surveillance Unit of Department of Consumers’ Rights Protection of South Kazakhstan region. Coverage with flu vaccination of the risk groups was annually increasing and in 2015 it reached 16% (450,000/2,800,682) from the total population. The ARVI morbidity rate in the entire population in 2010 was 2,010.4 per 100,000 of the population and decreased 3.2 times to 609.9 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Annual growth was observed from 2010 to 2015 of specific weight of the vaccinated main risk groups: healthcare workers by 51% (from 17,331 in 2010 to 33,538 in 2015), children with chronic pulmonary and cardio-vascular diseases, immune deficiency, weak and sickly children above six months by 39% (from 63,122 in 2010 to 158,023 in 2015), adults with chronic co-morbidities by 27% (from 44,271 in 2010 to 162,595 in 2015), persons above 65 by 17% (from 10,276 in 2010 to 57,875 in 2015), and annual coverage of pregnant women on second or third trimester from 34,443 in 2010 to 37,969 in 2015. Starting from 2013 and until 2015 vaccination was performed in the region with coverage of at least 90% of children from 6 months to one year. The ARVI morbidity in this age group decreased 3.3 times from 8,687.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2010 to 2,585.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Vaccination of pregnant women on 2-3 trimester was started in the region in 2012. Annual increase of vaccination coverage of pregnant women from 86.1% (34,443/40,000) in 2012 to 95% (37,969/40,000) in 2015 decreased the morbidity 1.5 times from 4,828.8 per 100,000 of population in 2012 to 3,022.7 per 100,000 of population in 2015. Following the increase of vaccination coverage of the population in South Kazakhstan region, the trend was observed of decrease of ARVI morbidity rates among the population and main risk groups, among pregnant women and children under one year.

Keywords: acute respiratory viral infections, flu, risk groups, vaccination

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: Wilfred A. Abiaa, Chibundu N. Ezekiel, Benedikt Warth, Michael Sulyok, Paul C. Turner, Rudolf Krska, Paul F. Moundipa

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Mycotoxins are a wide range of toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate various food commodities worldwide especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such contamination seriously compromises food safety and quality posing a serious problem for human health as well as to trade and the economy. Their concentrations depend on various factors, such as the commodity itself, climatic conditions, storage conditions, seasonal variances, and processing methods. When humans consume foods contaminated by mycotoxins, they exert toxic effects to their health through various modes of actions. Rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa, are exposed to dietary mycotoxins, but it is supposed that exposure levels and health risks associated with mycotoxins between SSA countries may vary. Dietary exposures and health risk assessment studies have been limited by lack of equipment for the proper assessment of the associated health implications on consumer populations when they eat contaminated agricultural products. As such, mycotoxin research is premature in several SSA nations with product evaluation for mycotoxin loads below/above legislative limits being inadequate. Few nations have health risk assessment reports mainly based on direct quantification of the toxins in foods ('external exposure') and linking food levels with data from food frequency questionnaires. Nonetheless, the assessment of the exposure and health risk to mycotoxins requires more than the traditional approaches. Only a fraction of the mycotoxins in contaminated foods reaches the blood stream and exert toxicity ('internal exposure'). Also, internal exposure is usually smaller than external exposure thus dependence on external exposure alone may induce confounders in risk assessment. Some studies from SSA earlier focused on biomarker analysis mainly on aflatoxins while a few recent studies have concentrated on the multi-biomarker analysis of exposures in urine providing probable associations between observed disease occurrences and dietary mycotoxins levels. As a result, new techniques that could assess the levels of exposures directly in body tissue or fluid, and possibly link them to the disease state of individuals became urgent.

Keywords: mycotoxins, biomarkers, exposure assessment, health risk assessment, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Sania Sana, Afnan Nasim, Usman Malik, Maroof Tahir

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The aim of this research is to scrutinize the interdependent relationship between terrorism and behavioral changes in the tourism activities in Pakistan with the moderating impact of a unique variable titled 'Financial Risk Tolerance'. The article looks at the inter-reliant relationship with the alleged political and economic aspects and behavioral changes in the tourists and the consumers by these variables over time. The researchers used many underlying theories like the catastrophe theory by (Svyantek, Deshon and Siler 1991), information integration theory (Anderson 1981, 1982) and prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979) to shape the study’s framework as per tourist decision making model. A sample of around 110 locals was used for this purpose and the data was gathered by convenience sampling. The responses were analyzed using regression analysis. The results exhibited how terrorism along with the influence of financial risk tolerance had inclined a behavioral shift in the travelling patterns and vacation destination choice of the local tourists. Lastly, the paper proposes a number of suggestive measures for the tourism industry and the legislative bodies to ensure the safety of travelers and to boost the tourist activities in the vacation industry of Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, financial risk tolerance, tourist decision-making, destination choice

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Mrigakshi Das

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The private sector investments and quantum of money required in this sector critically hinges on the financial risk and returns the sector offers to providers of capital. Therefore, it becomes important to understand financial performance of hospitals. Financial Analysis is useful for decision makers in a variety of settings. Consider the small proprietary hospitals, say, Physicians Clinic. The managers of such clinic need the information that financial statements provide. Attention to Financial Statements of healthcare Organizations can provide answers to questions like: How are they doing? What is their rate of profit? What is their solvency and liquidity position? What are their sources and application of funds? What is their Operational Efficiency? The researcher has studied Financial Statements of 5 Private Healthcare Organizations in Guwahati City.

Keywords: not-for-profit organizations, financial analysis, ratio analysis, profitability analysis, liquidity analysis, operational efficiency, capital structure analysis

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Authors: Vramori Mitra, Bornali Sarma, Arun K. Sarma

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Recurrence is a ubiquitous feature of any real dynamical system. The states in phase space trajectory of a system have an inherent tendency to return to the same state or its close state after certain time laps. Recurrence quantification analysis technique, based on this fundamental feature of a dynamical system, detects evaluation of state under variation of control parameter of the system. The paper presents the investigation of nonlinear dynamical behavior of plasma floating potential fluctuations obtained by using a Langmuir probe in different magnetic field under the variation of discharge voltages. The main measures of recurrence quantification analysis are considered as determinism, linemax and entropy. The increment of the DET and linemax variables asserts that the predictability and periodicity of the system is increasing. The variable linemax indicates that the chaoticity is being diminished with the slump of magnetic field while increase of magnetic field enhancing the chaotic behavior. Fractal property of the plasma time series estimated by DFA technique (Detrended fluctuation analysis) reflects that long-range correlation of plasma fluctuations is decreasing while fractal dimension is increasing with the enhancement of magnetic field which corroborates the RQA analysis.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation analysis, chaos, phase space, recurrence

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Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

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Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Michelle Roesler, Ian Glendon, Francis O'Callaghan

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This study expands on recent findings and offers a new perspective on recovery from injury and return to work (RTW) after an acute traumatic occupational hand injury. Recovery is a complex medical and psychosocial process. A number of predictor variables were studied simultaneously to identify the bio-psychosocial variables that impede recovery. An unexpected phenomenon to emerge from this study was the high incidence of complications within the hand-injured patient sample. Twenty six percent (n = 71) of the total sample (N = 263) required a second operation due to complications. This warranted further investigation. Results confirmed that complications not only significantly delayed the RTW outcome but also had a profound psychological impact on the individuals affected. Research has found that surgical complications are usually the result of incorrect early assessment and management. A strategic plan needs to be implemented to ensure the optimal level of surgical care is provided for managing acute traumatic hand injuries to avoid such complications.

Keywords: occupational hand trauma, psychological recovery, return to work, psychology

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Maria De Cillis

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This paper addresses the subject of love in two of the most prominent Islamic philosophers: Ibn Sīnā (known in the Latin World as Avicenna d. 1037) Avicenna and al-Kirmānī (DC 1021). By surveying the connection that the concept of love entertains with the notions of divine providence and determinism in the luminaries’ theoretical systems, the present paper highlights differences and similarities in their respective approaches to the subjects. Through a thorough analysis of primary and secondary literature, it will be shown that Avicenna’s thought, which is mainly informed by the Aristotelian and Farābīan metaphysical and cosmological stances, is also integrated with mystical underpinnings. Particularly, in Avicenna’s Risāla fī’l-ʿishq love becomes the expression of the divine providence which operates through the intellectual striving the souls undertake in their desire to return to their First Cause. Love is also portrayed as an instrument helping the divine decree to remain unadulterated by way of keeping existing beings within their species and genera as well as an instrument which is employed by God to know and be known. This paper also discusses that if on the one hand, al-Kirmānī speaks of love as the Aristotelian and Farābian motive-force spurring existents to achieve perfection and as a tool which facilitates the status quo of divine creation, on the other hand, he remains steadily positioned within Ismā‘īlī and Neoplatonic paradigms: the return of all loving-beings to their Source is interrupted at the level of the first Intellect, whilst God remains inaccessible and ineffable. By investigating his opus magnum, the Rāḥat al-ʿaql, we shall highlight how al-Kirmānī also emphasizes the notion of divine providence which allows humans to attain their ultimate completeness by following the teachings of the Imams, repositories of the knowledge necessary to serve the unreachable deity.

Keywords: Avicenna, determinism, love, al-Kirmani, Ismaili philosophy

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Yıldırım I. Tosun, Halim Cevizci, Hakan Ceylan

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By GEO5 FEM program with four rockfill slope modeling and stability analysis was performed for S1, S2, S3 and S4 slopes where landslides of the shalefills were limited. Effective angle of internal friction (φ'°) 17°-22.5°, the effective cohesion (c') from 0.5 to 1.8 kPa, saturated unit weight 1.78-2.43 g/cm3, natural unit weight 1.9-2.35 g/cm3, dry unit weight 1.97-2.40 g/cm3, the permeability coefficient of 1x10-4 - 6.5x10-4 cm/s. In cross-sections of the slope, GEO 5 FEM program possible critical surface tension was examined. Rockfill dump design was made to prevent sliding slopes. Bulk material designated geotechnical properties using also GEO5 programs FEM and stability program via a safety factor determined and calculated according to the values S3 and S4 No. slopes are stable S1 and S2 No. slopes were close to stable state that has been found to be risk. GEO5 programs with limestone rock fill dump through FEM program was found to exhibit stability.

Keywords: slope stability, stability analysis, rockfills, sock stability

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Chia-Chun Wu, Yu-Hsien Sung

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This study aims to examine the consistency between students’ predictions and their actual observations on the bullying prevalence rate among different types of high-risk victims, thereby clarifying the reliability of students’ reports on the identification of bullying. A total of 1,732 Taiwanese students (734 males and 998 females) participated in this study. A Rasch model was adopted for data analysis. The results showed that students with “personality or behavioral issues” are more likely to be bullied in schools, based on both students’ predictions and actual observations. Moreover, the results differed significantly between genders and between various educational levels in students’ predictions and their actual observations on the bullying prevalence rate of different types of high-risk victims. To summarize, this study not only suggests that students’ reports on the identification of bullying are accurate and could be a valuable reference in terms of recognizing a bullying incident, but it also argues that more attention should be paid to students’ gender and educational level when taking their perspectives into consideration when it comes to identifying bullying behaviors.

Keywords: school bullying, student, bullying recognition, high-risk victims

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Mehdi Janbaz

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The global financial crisis and the credit crunch that followed magnified the importance of credit risk management and its crucial role in the stability of all financial sectors and the whole of the system. Many believe that risks faced by the sovereign sector are highly interconnected with banking risks and most likely to trigger and reinforce each other. This study aims to examine (1) the impact of banking and interbank risk factors on the sovereign credit risk of Eurozone, and (2) how the EU Credit Default Swaps spreads dynamics are affected by the Crude Oil price fluctuations. The hypothesizes are tested by employing fitting risk measures and through a four-staged linear modeling approach. The sovereign senior 5-year Credit Default Swap spreads are used as a core measure of the credit risk. The monthly time-series data of the variables used in the study are gathered from the DataStream database for a period of 2008-2019. First, a linear model test the impact of regional macroeconomic and market-based factors (STOXX, VSTOXX, Oil, Sovereign Debt, and Slope) on the CDS spreads dynamics. Second, the bank-specific factors, including LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3-month LIBOR rate and Euro 3-month overnight index swap rates) and Euribor, are added to the most significant factors of the previous model. Third, the global financial factors including EURO to USD Foreign Exchange Volatility, TED spread (the difference between 3-month T-bill and the 3-month LIBOR rate based in US dollars), and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Crude Oil Volatility Index are added to the major significant factors of the first two models. Finally, a model is generated by a combination of the major factor of each variable set in addition to the crisis dummy. The findings show that (1) the explanatory power of LIBOR-OIS on the sovereign CDS spread of Eurozone is very significant, and (2) there is a meaningful adverse co-movement between the Crude Oil price and CDS price of Eurozone. Surprisingly, adding TED spread (the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in US dollars.) to the analysis and beside the LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3M LIBOR and Euro 3M OIS) in third and fourth models has been increased the predicting power of LIBOR-OIS. Based on the results, LIBOR-OIS, Stoxx, TED spread, Slope, Oil price, OVX, FX volatility, and Euribor are the determinants of CDS spreads dynamics in Eurozone. Moreover, the positive impact of the crisis period on the creditworthiness of the Eurozone is meaningful.

Keywords: CDS, crude oil, interbank risk, LIBOR-OIS, OVX, sovereign credit risk, TED

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Authors: Y. Kamarulzaman, A. Madun, F. D. Yusop, N. Abdullah, N. K. Hoong

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In 2011, the Malaysian Government has initiated a nationwide project called 1BestariNet which will adopt the using of technology in teaching and learning, resulting in the construction of telecommunication towers inside the public schools’ premise. Using qualitative approach, this study investigated public perception of risks associated with the project, particularly the telecommunication towers. Data collection involved observation and in-depth interviews with 22 individuals consist of a segment of public that was anxious about the risks of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF) which include two employees of telecommunication companies (telcos) and five employees of Government agencies. Observation of the location of the towers at 10 public schools, a public forum, and media reports provide valuable information in our analysis. The study finds that the main concern is related to the health risks. This study also shows that it is not easy for the Government to manage public perception mainly because it involves public trust. We find that risk perception is related with public trust, as well as the perceived benefits and level of knowledge. Efficient communication and continuous engagement with the local communities help to build and maintain public trust, reduce public fear and anxiety, hence mitigating the risk perception among the public.

Keywords: risk perception, risk communication, trust, telecommunication tower, radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF)

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Tu Shuyang, Zhang Xu, Zhou Xiang

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The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of short-term heat exchange decay of ground heat exchanger (GHE) on the ground source heat pump (GSHP) energy efficiency and capacity. A resistance-capacitance (RC) model was developed and adopted to simulate the transient characteristics of the ground thermal condition and heat exchange. The capacity change of the GSHP was linked to the inlet and outlet water temperature by polynomial fitting according to measured parameters given by heat pump manufacturers. Thus, the model, which combined the heat exchange decay with the capacity change, reflected the energy efficiency decay of the whole system. A case of GSHP system was analyzed by the model, and the result showed that there was risk that the GSHP might not meet the load demand because of the efficiency decay in a short-term operation. The conclusion would provide some guidances for GSHP system design to overcome the risk.

Keywords: capacity, energy efficiency, GSHP, heat exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Fiona Tan, Cheryl Tan, Thomas Wong, Remesh

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Background: An increasing number of working adults undergo knee arthroplasty in Singapore. There is limited data concerning Southeast Asian patients returning to work (RTW) following knee replacement surgery. Our aim was to identify and study factors influencing patients' RTW following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) or unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Methods: Patients who underwent TKA or UKA between August 2017 to March 2020 in our center were included in this study. Outcomes include RTW and duration prior to RTW. Results: 441 patients underwent TKA (295 women, 146 men, mean age 67.3 years), and 69 underwent UKA (48 women, 21 men, mean age 61.1 years). Patients who underwent TKA returned to work earlier (mean 83.7 ± 27.1 days) compared to UKA (mean 94.4 ± 42.3 days). 90.0% of TKA patients RTW compared to 95.5% who underwent UKA. Of patients who RTW, 94.3% of the TKA group returned to employment of the same nature compared to 92.9% of UKA patients. Patients who RTW were of a younger age (p = 0.03), white-collared workers (p = 0.04), and had independent preoperative ambulatory status (p <0.01). Conclusion: Younger and independently ambulating patients may have a better capacity for rehabilitation and RTW post-arthroplasty surgery.

Keywords: return to work, total knee arthroplasty, unilateral knee arthroplasty, employment

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Ghita Benayad

Abstract:

Asset allocation, which affects the long-term profitability of portfolios by distributing assets to fulfill a range of investment objectives, is the cornerstone of investment management in the dynamic and complicated world of financial markets. This paper offers a technique for optimizing strategic asset allocation with the goal of improving portfolio performance by addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the market through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a multi-objective modeling framework. The study's first section starts with a critical evaluation of conventional asset allocation techniques, highlighting how poorly they are able to capture the intricate relationships between assets and the volatile nature of the market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project suggests a PCA-driven methodology that isolates important characteristics influencing asset returns by decreasing the dimensionality of the investment universe. This decrease provides a stronger basis for asset allocation decisions by facilitating a clearer understanding of market structures and behaviors. Using a multi-objective optimization model, the project builds on this foundation by taking into account a number of performance metrics at once, including risk minimization, return maximization, and the accomplishment of predetermined investment goals like regulatory compliance or sustainability standards. This model provides a more comprehensive understanding of investor preferences and portfolio performance in comparison to conventional single-objective optimization techniques. While applying the PCA-driven multi-objective optimization model to historical market data, aiming to construct portfolios better under different market situations. As compared to portfolios produced from conventional asset allocation methodologies, the results show that portfolios optimized using the proposed method display improved risk-adjusted returns, more resilience to market downturns, and better alignment with specified investment objectives. The study also looks at the implications of this PCA technique for portfolio management, including the prospect that it might give investors a more advanced framework for navigating financial markets. The findings suggest that by combining PCA with multi-objective optimization, investors may obtain a more strategic and informed asset allocation that is responsive to both market conditions and individual investment preferences. In conclusion, this capstone project improves the field of financial engineering by creating a sophisticated asset allocation optimization model that integrates PCA with multi-objective optimization. In addition to raising concerns about the condition of asset allocation today, the proposed method of portfolio management opens up new avenues for research and application in the area of investment techniques.

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio optimization, principle component analysis, multi-objective modelling, financial market

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

Procedia PDF Downloads 538