Search results for: mixed effects models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18272

Search results for: mixed effects models

11372 Bacteriological Culture Methods and its Uses in Clinical Pathology

Authors: Prachi Choudhary, Jai Gopal Sharma

Abstract:

Microbial cultures determine the type of organism, its abundance in the tested sample, or both. It is one of the primary diagnostic methods of microbiology. It is used to determine the cause of infectious disease by letting the agent multiply in a predetermined medium. Different bacteria produce colonies that may be very distinct from the bacterial species that produced them. To culture any pathogen or microorganism, we should first know about the types of media used in microbiology for culturing. Sometimes sub culturing is also done in various microorganisms if some mixed growth is seen in culture. Nearly 3 types of culture media based on consistency – solid, semi-solid, and liquid (broth) media; are further explained in the report. Then, The Five I's approach is a method for locating, growing, observing, and characterizing microorganisms, including inoculation and incubation. Isolation, inspection, and identification. For identification of bacteria, we have to culture the sample like urine, sputum, blood, etc., on suitable media; there are different methods of culturing the bacteria or microbe like pour plate method, streak plate method, swabbing by needle, pipetting, inoculation by loop, spreading by spreader, etc. After this, we see the bacterial growth after incubation of 24 hours, then according to the growth of bacteria antibiotics susceptibility test is conducted; this is done for sensitive antibiotics or resistance to that bacteria, and also for knowing the name of bacteria. Various methods like the dilution method, disk diffusion method, E test, etc., do antibiotics susceptibility tests. After that, various medicines are provided to the patients according to antibiotic sensitivity and resistance.

Keywords: inoculation, incubation, isolation, antibiotics suspectibility test, characterizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
11371 Effects of Ensiled Mulberry Leaves and Sun-Dried Mulberry Fruit Pomace on the Composition of Bacteria in Feces of Finishing Steers

Authors: Yan Li, Qingxiang Meng, Bo Zhou, Zhenming Zhou

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to compare the effects of ensiled mulberry leaves (EML), and sun-dried mulberry fruit pomace (SMFP) on fecal bacterial communities in Simmental crossbred finishing steers fed the following 3 diets: a standard TMR diet, standard diet containing EML and standard diet containing SMFP, and the diets had similar protein and energy levels. Bacterial communities in the fecal content were analyzed using Illumina Miseq sequencing of the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene amplification. Quantitative real-time PCR was used to detect the selected bacterial species in the feces. Most of the sequences were assigned to phyla Firmicutes (56.67%) and Bacteroidetes(35.90%), followed by Proteobacteria(1.86%), Verrucomicrobia(1.80%) and Tenericutes(1.37%). And the predominant genera included the 5-7N15 (5.91%), CF231 (2.49%), Oscillospira (2.33%), Paludibacter (1.23%) and Akkermansia(1.11%). As for the treatments, no significant differences were observed in Firmicutes (p = 0.28), Bacteroidetes (p = 0.63), Proteobacteria (p = 0.46), Verrucomicrobia (p = 0.17) and Tenericutes (p = 0.75). On the genus level, classified genera with high abundance (more than 0.1%) mainly came from two phyla: Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes. Also no differences were observed in most genera level, 5-7N15 (p = 0.21), CF231 (p = 0.62), Oscillospira (p = 0.9), Paludibacter (p = 0.33) and Akkermansia (p = 0.37), except that rc4-4 were lower in the CON and SMFP groups compared to the EML animals (p = 0.02). Additionally, there were no differences in richness estimate and diversity indices (p > 0.16), and treatments had no significant effect on most selected bacterial species in the fecal (p > 0.06), except that Ruminococcus albus were higher in the EML group (p < 0.01) and Streptococcus bovis were lower in the CON group (p < 0.01). In conclusion, diets supplemented with EML and SMFP have little influence on fecal bacterial community composition in finishing steers.

Keywords: fecal bacteria community composition, sequencing, ensiled mulberry leaves (EML), sun-dried mulberry fruit pomace (SMFP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
11370 Simulation of Wet Scrubbers for Flue Gas Desulfurization

Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Kim Sorensen, Thomas Condra

Abstract:

Wet scrubbers are used for flue gas desulfurization by injecting water directly into the flue gas stream from a set of sprayers. The water droplets will flow freely inside the scrubber, and flow down along the scrubber walls as a thin wall film while reacting with the gas phase to remove SO₂. This complex multiphase phenomenon can be divided into three main contributions: the continuous gas phase, the liquid droplet phase, and the liquid wall film phase. This study proposes a complete model, where all three main contributions are taken into account and resolved using OpenFOAM for the continuous gas phase, and MATLAB for the liquid droplet and wall film phases. The 3D continuous gas phase is composed of five species: CO₂, H₂O, O₂, SO₂, and N₂, which are resolved along with momentum, energy, and turbulence. Source terms are present for four species, energy and momentum, which are affecting the steady-state solution. The liquid droplet phase experiences breakup, collisions, dynamics, internal chemistry, evaporation and condensation, species mass transfer, energy transfer and wall film interactions. Numerous sub-models have been implemented and coupled to realise the above-mentioned phenomena. The liquid wall film experiences impingement, acceleration, atomization, separation, internal chemistry, evaporation and condensation, species mass transfer, and energy transfer, which have all been resolved using numerous sub-models as well. The continuous gas phase has been coupled with the liquid phases using source terms by an approach, where the two software packages are couples using a link-structure. The complete CFD model has been verified using 16 experimental tests from an existing scrubber installation, where a gradient-based pattern search optimization algorithm has been used to tune numerous model parameters to match the experimental results. The CFD model needed to be fast for evaluation in order to apply this optimization routine, where approximately 1000 simulations were needed. The results show that the complex multiphase phenomena governing wet scrubbers can be resolved in a single model. The optimization routine was able to tune the model to accurately predict the performance of an existing installation. Furthermore, the study shows that a coupling between OpenFOAM and MATLAB is realizable, where the data and source term exchange increases the computational requirements by approximately 5%. This allows for exploiting the benefits of both software programs.

Keywords: desulfurization, discrete phase, scrubber, wall film

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
11369 Cultural Tourism in Mexico as a Strategy to Attract Chinese Tourists

Authors: Ruben Molina, Melissa Ochoa

Abstract:

The rapid expansion and facilities that the Chinese government has granted to its inhabitants to travel abroad has brought benefits to the economies of the countries where these tourists travel. Due to the great economic spill that these tourists make in their travels and the great potential they possess, they become one of the most attractive segments in the world, causing countries to seek to attract them for the profits. The Chinese tourist is a tourist who seeks to know the culture, culinary experiences, traditions and folklore of the place where they travel, more than seeking sun and beach. Mexico is a country that has a great mix of tourist products and services, which favors that the tourism offer focuses on the satisfaction of the needs and preferences of the different segments of international tourists who arrive in Mexico: sun and beach tourism and also cultural tourism. Mexico has 51 sites inscribed on the World Heritage List, of which 12 are natural, 37 are cultural and 2 are mixed. Despite the great tourist attraction of the country and the strategic importance of the sector for the economy, Mexico has not managed to have a large number of tourists or income from international tourism for 15 years. One way to increase the travel industry is to attract the Chinese tourist to Mexico, which is considered a priority by countries like the United States, France and Spain due to the advantages they entail. Therefore, this article will describe the tastes, preferences and habits of Chinese tourists coming to the most popular destinations in Mexico through a Likert scale and it will be described which are the most attractive cultural factors in Mexico for the Chinese tourists and will be proposing strategies of attraction for Mexico and its destinations.

Keywords: attraction, Chinese tourist, cultural tourism, strategic, Mexico

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
11368 Behavioral Effects of Oxidant and Reduced Chemorepellent on Mutant and Wild-Type Tetrahymena thermophila

Authors: Ananya Govindarajan

Abstract:

Tetrahymena thermophila is a single-cell, eukaryotic organism that belongs to the Protozoa Kingdom. Tetrahymena thermophila is often used in signal transduction pathway studies because of its ability to model sensory input and the effects of environmental conditions such as chemicals and temperature. The recently discovered G37 chemorepellent receptor showed increased responsiveness to all chemorepellents. Investigating the mutant G37 Tetrahymena gene in various test solutions, including ferric chloride, ferrous sulfate, hydrogen peroxide, tetrazolium blue, potassium chloride, and dithiothreitol were performed to determine the role of oxidants and reducing agents with the mutant and wild-type cells (CU427) to assess the role of the receptor. Behavioral assays and recordings processed by ImageJ indicated that ferric chloride, hydrogen peroxide, and tetrazolium blue yielded little to no chemorepellent responses from G37 cells (<20% ARs). CU427 cells were over-responsive based on the mean percent of cells (>50% ARs). Reducing agents elicited chemorepellent responses from both G37 and CU427, in addition to potassium chloride. Cell responses were classified as over-responsive (>50% ARs). Dithiothreitol yielded unexpected results as G37 (37.0% ARs) and CU427 (38.1% ARs) had relatively similar responses and were only responsive and not over-responsive to the reducing agent test chemical solution. Ultimately, this indicates that the G37 receptor is more interactive with molecules that are reducing agents or non-oxidant compounds; G37 may be unable to sense and respond to oxidants effectively, further elucidating the pathways of the G37 strain and nature of this receptor. Results also indicate that the CSF most likely contained an oxidant, like ferric chloride. This research can be further applied to neuronal influences and how specific compounds may affect human neurons individually and their excitability as the responses model action potentials and membrane potential.

Keywords: tetrahymena thermophila, signal transduction, chemosensory, oxidant, reducing agent

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
11367 Effects of Aerobic Dance on Systolic Blood Pressure in Stage 1 Hypertensive Individuals in Uganda

Authors: Loyce Nahwera, Joy Wachira, Edwin Kiptolo, Constance Nsibambi, Mshilla Maghanga, Timothy Makubuya

Abstract:

Introduction: Hypertension is one of the most prominent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases globally, and it can be modified through lifestyle interventions such as exercise. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of a 12-week aerobic dance programme on systolic blood pressure (SBP) in stage 1 hypertensive individuals. Methods: This study employed an experimental research design. A total of 36 stage 1 hypertensive individuals who were randomly assigned into experimental and control groups completed the study. Systolic BP was measured using a mercury sphygmomanometer at baseline, mid-point and after the program. The experimental group participants trained 3 days a week, 45 minutes per session, at a moderate intensity of 40-60% of maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max) monitored by Garmin heart rate monitors. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. The significance level was set at p<0.05. A paired sample t-test was used to compare mean differences within the groups. Results: Data from the 36 participants (22 males and 14 females) (experimental; n=18, control; n=18) show that the experimental group had a mean SBP of 143.83±6.382 mmHg at baseline while the control had a mean of 137.61±6.400 mmHg. Following the end of a 6-week aerobic dance, the mean SBP of the experimental group reduced to 138.06±9.539 mmHg while that of the control marginally decreased to 137.00±8.073 mmHg. At the completion of a 12-week program, the mean SBP of the experimental group reduced to 136.33±9.191 mmHg, while that of the control marginally increased to 139.56±9.954 mmHg. This implies that both the 6-week and 12-week aerobic dance program reduced the SBP of the experimental group by 5.77±7.133 mmHg and 7.50±8.487 mmHg, respectively, while the control group fast reduced marginally by 0.61 before ultimately increasing by 1.95±7.974 mmHg at 12-weeks. The changes were statistically significant (p<0.05) at both 6 and 12 weeks of an aerobic dance program. Conclusion: The study concluded that aerobic dance is an effective non-pharmacological method for managing SBP of stage 1 hypertensive individuals both in the short-term (6 weeks) and long-term (12 weeks).

Keywords: aerobic dance, blood pressure, stage 1 hypertension, systolic blood pressure.

Procedia PDF Downloads 37
11366 Inter-Generational Benefits of Improving Access to Justice for Women: Evidence from Peru

Authors: Iva Trako, Maris Micaela Sviatschi, Guadalupe Kavanaugh

Abstract:

Domestic violence is a major concern in developing countries, with important social, economic and health consequences. However, institutions do not usually address the problems facing women or ethnic and religious minorities. For example, the police do very little to stop domestic violence in rural areas of developing countries. This paper exploits the introduction of women’s justice centers (WJCs) in Peru to provide causal estimates on the effects of improving access to justice for women and children. These centers offer a new integrated public service model for women by including medical, psychological and legal support in cases of violence against women. Our empirical approach uses a difference in difference estimation exploiting variation over time and space in the opening of WJC together with province-by-year fixed effects. Exploiting administrative data from health providers and district attorney offices, we find that after the opening of these centers, there are important improvements on women's welfare: a large reduction in femicides and female hospitalizations for assault. Moreover, using geo-coded household surveys we find evidence that the existence of these services reduces domestic violence, improves women's health, increases women's threat points and, therefore, lead to household decisions that are more aligned with their interests. Using administrative data on the universe of schools, we find large gains on human capital for their children: affected children are more likely to enroll, attend school and have better grades in national exams, instead of working for the family. In sum, the evidence in this paper shows that providing access to justice for women can be a powerful tool to reduce domestic violence and increase education of children, suggesting a positive inter-generational benefit.

Keywords: access to justice, domestic violence, education, household bargaining

Procedia PDF Downloads 170
11365 The Toxic Effects of Kynurenine Metabolites on SH-SY5Y Neuroblastoma Cells

Authors: Susan Hall, Gary D. Grant, Catherine McDermott, Devinder Arora

Abstract:

Introduction /Aim: The kynurenine pathway is thought to play an important role in the pathophysiology of numerous neurodegenerative diseases including depression, Alzheimer’s disease, and Parkinson’s disease. Numerous neuroactive compounds, including the neurotoxic 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid, 3-hydroxykynurenine and quinolinic acid and the neuroprotective kynurenic acid and picolinic acid, are produced through the metabolism of kynurenine and are thought to be the causative agents responsible for neurodegeneration. The toxicity of 3-hydroxykynurenine, 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid and quinolinic acid has been widely evaluated and demonstrated in primary cell cultures but to date only 3-hydroxykynurenine and 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid have been shown to cause toxicity in immortal tumour cells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the toxicity of kynurenine metabolites, both individually and in combination, on SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells after 24 and 72 h exposure in order to explore a cost-effective model to study their neurotoxic effects and potential protective agents. Methods: SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells were exposed to various concentrations of the neuroactive kynurenine metabolites, both individually and in combination, for 24 and 72 h, and viability was subsequently evaluated using the Resazurin (Alamar blue) proliferation assay. Furthermore, the effects of these compounds, alone and in combination, on specific death pathways including apoptosis, necrosis and free radical production was evaluated using various assays. Results: Consistent with literature, toxicity was shown with short-term 24-hour treatments at 1000 μM concentrations for both 3-hydroxykynurenine and 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid. Combinations of kynurenine metabolites showed modest toxicity towards SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells in a concentration-dependent manner. Specific cell death pathways, including apoptosis, necrosis and free radical production were shown to be increased after both 24 and 72 h exposure of SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells to 3-hydroxykynurenine and 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid and various combinations of neurotoxic kynurenine metabolites. Conclusion: It is well documented that neurotoxic kynurenine metabolites show toxicity towards primary human neurons in the nanomolar to low micromolar concentration range. Results show that the concentrations required to show significant cell death are in the range of 1000 µM for 3-hydroxykynurenine and 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid and toxicity of quinolinic acid towards SH-SY5Y was unable to be shown. This differs significantly from toxicities observed in primary human neurons. Combinations of the neurotoxic metabolites were shown to have modest toxicity towards these cells with increased toxicity and activation of cell death pathways observed after 72 h exposure. This study suggests that the 24 h model is unsuitable for use in neurotoxicity studies, however, the 72 h model better represents the observations of the studies using primary human neurons and may provide some benefit in providing a cost-effective model to assess possible protective agents against kynurenine metabolite toxicities.

Keywords: kynurenine metabolites, neurotoxicity, quinolinic acid, SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
11364 Attention Problems among Adolescents: Examining Educational Environments

Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

Abstract:

This study investigated the attention problems with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). Two thousand eight hundred and ninety-four adolescents were surveyed by using a stratified sampling method. We examined the relationships between relevant background variables and attention problems. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the data. Relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, age, grade and the number of close friends were included in this study as predictive variables. The analysis results indicated that educational environments and extracurricular activities are important factors which influence students’ attention problems.

Keywords: adolescents, ASEBA, attention problems, educational environments, stratified sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 263
11363 Evaluation of Anti-Typhoid Effects of Azadirachta indica L. Fractions

Authors: A. Adetutu, T. M. Awodugba, O. A. Owoade

Abstract:

The development of resistance to currently known conventional anti-typhoid drugs has necessitated search into cheap, more potent and less toxic anti-typhoid drugs of plant origin. Therefore, this study investigated the anti-typhoid activity of fractions of A. indica in Salmonella typhi infected rats. Leaves of A. indica were extracted in methanol and fractionated into n-hexane, chloroform, ethyl-acetate, and aqueous fractions. The anti-salmonella potentials of fractions of A. indica were assessed via in-vitro inhibition of S. typhi using agar well diffusion, Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC), Minimum Bactericidal Concentration (MBC) and biofilm assays. The biochemical and haematological parameters were determined by spectrophotometric methods. The histological analysis was performed using Haematoxylin and Eosin staining methods. Data analysis was performed by one-way ANOVA. Results of this study showed that S. typhi was sensitive to aqueous and chloroform fractions of A. indica, and the fractions showed biofilm inhibition at concentrations of 12.50, 1.562, and 0.39 mg/mL. In the in-vivo study, the extract and chloroform fraction had significant (p < 0.05) effects on the number of viable S. typhi recovered from the blood and stopped salmonellosis after 6 days of treatment of rats at 500 mg/kg b.w. Treatments of infected rats with chloroform and aqueous fractions of A. indica normalized the haematological parameters in the animals. Similarly, treatment with fractions of the plants sustained a normal antioxidant status when compared with the normal control group. Chloroform and ethyl-acetate fractions of A. indica reversed the liver and intestinal degeneration induced by S. typhi infection in rats. The present investigation indicated that the aqueous and chloroform fractions of A. indica showed the potential to provide an effective treatment for salmonellosis, including typhoid fever. The results of the study may justify the ethno-medicinal use of the extract in traditional medicine for the treatment of typhoid and salmonella infections.

Keywords: Azadirachta indica L, salmonella, typhoid, leave fractions

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
11362 Aerodynamic Analysis of a Frontal Deflector for Vehicles

Authors: C. Malça, N. Alves, A. Mateus

Abstract:

This work was one of the tasks of the Manufacturing2Client project, whose objective was to develop a frontal deflector to be commercialized in the automotive industry, using new project and manufacturing methods. In this task, in particular, it was proposed to develop the ability to predict computationally the aerodynamic influence of flow in vehicles, in an effort to reduce fuel consumption in vehicles from class 3 to 8. With this aim, two deflector models were developed and their aerodynamic performance analyzed. The aerodynamic study was done using the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software Ansys CFX and allowed the calculation of the drag coefficient caused by the vehicle motion for the different configurations considered. Moreover, the reduction of diesel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with the optimized deflector geometry could be assessed.

Keywords: erodynamic analysis, CFD, CO2 emissions, drag coefficient, frontal deflector, fuel consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 397
11361 Toxicological Effects of Heavy Metals; Copper, Lead and Chromium on Brain and Liver Tissue of Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella)

Authors: Ahsan Khan, Nazish Shah, Muhammad Salman

Abstract:

The present study deals with the toxicological effects of copper, lead and chromium on brain and liver tissues of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). The average length of experimental fish was 8.5 ± 5.5 cm and weighed 9.5 ± 6.5 g. Grass carp was exposed to lethal concentration (LC₁₅) of copper, lead and chromium for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours respectively. (LC₁₅) for copper was 1.5, 1.4, 1.2 and 1mgL⁻¹. Similarly, LC₁₅ of lead was 250, 235, 225 and 216mgL⁻¹ while (LC₁₅) for chromium was 25.5, 22.5, 20 and 18mgL⁻¹ respectively. During the time of exposure against various doses of heavy metals the grass carp showed some behavioral changes. In the initial stages of experiment, the rapid movements and gulping of air were observed. Several times the fish tried to jump to scat from the toxic median. In addition, the accumulation of heavy metals in different tissues of grass carp particularly in liver and brain tissues were observed. Lead was highly accumulated in brain tissue after the exposure of fish for 24 and 48 hours, while highly accumulated in liver tissues after the exposure of fish for 72 and 96 hours. Chromium was highly accumulated in the liver tissues after the exposure of fish for 24 hours while its accumulation was found highly in the brain tissues after the exposure of fish for 48, 72 and 96 hours. Similarly, accumulation of copper concentration was found highly in brain tissues after the exposure of 48 and 96 hours while its accumulation was high in liver tissues after the exposure of 24 and 72 hours. Comparatively maximum accumulation of lead was found in brain and liver tissues of grass carp followed by chromium and copper. Furthermore, accumulation of these metals caused many abnormalities like gliosis, destruction of cell, change in cell shape and shrinkage of cells in brain tissue while in liver tissues aggregation in hepatocytes, widen space between cells and also destruction of cell was observed. These experiments and observations can be useful to monitor the aquatic pollution and quality of aquatic environment system.

Keywords: brain, grass carp, liver, lethal concentration, toxicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
11360 Symbolic Computation for the Multi-Soliton Solutions of a Class of Fifth-Order Evolution Equations

Authors: Rafat Alshorman, Fadi Awawdeh

Abstract:

By employing a simplified bilinear method, a class of generalized fifth-order KdV (gfKdV) equations which arise in nonlinear lattice, plasma physics and ocean dynamics are investigated. With the aid of symbolic computation, both solitary wave solutions and multiple-soliton solutions are obtained. These new exact solutions will extend previous results and help us explain the properties of nonlinear solitary waves in many physical models in shallow water. Parametric analysis is carried out in order to illustrate that the soliton amplitude, width and velocity are affected by the coefficient parameters in the equation.

Keywords: multiple soliton solutions, fifth-order evolution equations, Cole-Hopf transformation, Hirota bilinear method

Procedia PDF Downloads 308
11359 Effects of Butea superba Roxb. on Skeletal Muscle Functions and Parvalbumin Levels of Orchidectomized Rat

Authors: Surapong Vongvatcharanon, Fardeela Binalee, Wandee Udomuksorn, Ekkasit Kumarnsit, Uraporn Vongvatcharanon

Abstract:

Hypogonadism is characterized by a decline in sex hormone levels, especially testosterone. It has been shown to be an important contributor to the decrease in muscle mass, muscle strength and performance, a condition known as sarcopenia. Preparations from Butea superba Roxb. (red Kwao Krua) have been reported to have androgenic properties. The active compounds are proposed to be flavonoids and flavonoid glycosides. Treatment with B. superba has been shown to improve erectile dysfunction in males. Parvalbumin (PV) is a relaxing factor and identified in fast twitch fibers. Alterations of the PV levels affects skeletal muscle functions. This study aimed to investigate the effects of orhchidectomy, testosterone replacement and different doses of Butea superba Roxb. on the structure, performance, levels of parvalbumin, parvalbumin and androgen receptor immunoreactivities in the extensor digitorum longus (EDL) and gastrocnemius muscles of orchidectomized rats. Twelve-week old male Wistar rats were randomly divided into 6 groups; sham-operated (SHAM), orchidectomized (BS-0), orchidectomized group that was treated with testosterone replacement of 6 µg/kg (TP) or an orchidectomized group that was treated with various doses of an extract from Butea superba Roxb.; 5 mg/kg (BS-5), 50 mg/kg (BS-50) and 500 mg/kg (BS-500) all for 90 days. The testosterone level, epididymis, seminal vesicle, prostate gland, vas deference weight, muscle fiber size, strength and endurance in both the EDL and gastrocnemius muscle were decreased in the BS-0 group but increased in the testosterone replacement group. Treatment with the B. superba Roxb. extract replacement group improved muscle fiber size, strength and endurance, but not total testosterone levels, or the epididymis, seminal vesicle, prostate gland, vas deference weight. Furthermore, the parvalbumin level, parvalbumin and androgen receptor immunoreactivities were reduced in the BS-0 group but increased in the testosterone replacement group and the B. superba Roxb. extract groups for both the EDL and gastrocnemius muscle. This study indicated that the reduction of testosterone level led to a decrease of the androgen receptor density resulting in a decline in the muscle mass and parvalbumin levels. The decrease of parvalbumin levels affected muscle performance. Testosterone replacement increased the androgen receptor density and led to an increase of muscle mass and parvalbumin levels. The increase in the parvalbumin levels may result in an improvement of muscle performance. This may explain one mechanism of testosterone on muscle mass and strength in the testosterone dependent sarcopenia. The B. superba Roxb. extract groups also had improved muscle mass, strength and endurance, parvalbumin level, parvalbumin and androgen immunoreactivities compared to the BS-O group . Butea superba Roxb. Extracts contains a flavonoid (3, 7, 3'-Trihydroxy-4'-methoxyflavone), flavonoiglycoside (3, 3'-dihydroxy-4'-methoxyflavone-7-O-β-D-glucopyranoside) and isoflavanolignans (butesuperins A and butesuperins B) all known to inhibit the cAMP phosphodiesterase enzyme. Therefore, cAMP signaling may have adaptive effects on skeletal muscle by increasing muscle mass, strength and endurance.

Keywords: Butea superba, parvalbumin, skeletal muscle, orchidectomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
11358 The Experimental and Modeling Adsorption Properties of Sr2+ on Raw and Purified Bentonite

Authors: A. A. Khodadadi, S. C. Ravaj, B. D. Tavildari, M. B. Abdolahi

Abstract:

The adsorption properties of local bentonite (Semnan Iran) and purified prepared from this bentonite towards Sr2+ adsorption, were investigated by batch equilibration. The influence of equilibration time, adsorption isotherms, kinetic adsorption, solution pH, and presence of EDTA and NaCl on these properties was studied and discussed. Kinetic data were found to be well fitted with a pseudo-second order kinetic model. Sr2+ is preferably adsorbed by bentonite and purified bentonite. The D-R isotherm model has the best fit with experimental data than other adsorption isotherm models. The maximum adsorption of Sr2+ representing the highest negative charge density on the surface of the adsorbent was seen at pH 12. Presence of EDTA and NaCl decreased the amount of Sr2+ adsorption.

Keywords: bentonite, purified bentonite, Sr2+, equilibrium isotherm, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 364
11357 Evaluation of Simulated Noise Levels through the Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall: A Case Study of Nairobi Central Business District

Authors: Emmanuel Yussuf, John Muthama, John Ng'ang'A

Abstract:

There has been increasing noise levels all over the world in the last decade. Many factors contribute to this increase, which is causing health related effects to humans. Developing countries are not left out of the whole picture as they are still growing and advancing their development. Motor vehicles are increasing on urban roads; there is an increase in infrastructure due to the rising population, increasing number of industries to provide goods and so many other activities. All this activities lead to the high noise levels in cities. This study was conducted in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) with the main objective of simulating noise levels in order to understand the noise exposed to the people within the urban area, in relation to weather parameters namely temperature, rainfall and wind field. The study was achieved using the Neighbourhood Proximity Model and Time Series Analysis, with data obtained from proxies/remotely-sensed from satellites, in order to establish the levels of noise exposed to which people of Nairobi CBD are exposed to. The findings showed that there is an increase in temperature (0.1°C per year) and a decrease in precipitation (40 mm per year), which in comparison to the noise levels in the area, are increasing. The study also found out that noise levels exposed to people in Nairobi CBD were roughly between 61 and 63 decibels and has been increasing, a level which is high and likely to cause adverse physical and psychological effects on the human body in which air temperature, precipitation and wind contribute so much in the spread of noise. As a noise reduction measure, the use of sound proof materials in buildings close to busy roads, implementation of strict laws to most emitting sources as well as further research on the study was recommended. The data used for this study ranged from the year 2000 to 2015, rainfall being in millimeters (mm), temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) and the urban form characteristics being in meters (m).

Keywords: simulation, noise exposure, weather, proxy

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
11356 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Market Liquidity: Evidence from Indian Stock Market

Authors: Byomakesh Debata, Jitendra Mahakud

Abstract:

The recent financial crisis has been characterized by massive monetary policy interventions by the Central bank, and it has amplified the importance of liquidity for the stability of the stock market. This paper empirically elucidates the actual impact of monetary policy interventions on stock market liquidity covering all National Stock Exchange (NSE) Stocks, which have been traded continuously from 2002 to 2015. The present study employs a multivariate VAR model along with VAR-granger causality test, impulse response functions, block exogeneity test, and variance decomposition to analyze the direction as well as the magnitude of the relationship between monetary policy and market liquidity. Our analysis posits a unidirectional relationship between monetary policy (call money rate, base money growth rate) and aggregate market liquidity (traded value, turnover ratio, Amihud illiquidity ratio, turnover price impact, high-low spread). The impulse response function analysis clearly depicts the influence of monetary policy on stock liquidity for every unit innovation in monetary policy variables. Our results suggest that an expansionary monetary policy increases aggregate stock market liquidity and the reverse is documented during the tightening of monetary policy. To ascertain whether our findings are consistent across all periods, we divided the period of study as pre-crisis (2002 to 2007) and post-crisis period (2007-2015) and ran the same set of models. Interestingly, all liquidity variables are highly significant in the post-crisis period. However, the pre-crisis period has witnessed a moderate predictability of monetary policy. To check the robustness of our results we ran the same set of VAR models with different monetary policy variables and found the similar results. Unlike previous studies, we found most of the liquidity variables are significant throughout the sample period. This reveals the predictability of monetary policy on aggregate market liquidity. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by documenting a strong predictability of monetary policy on stock liquidity in an emerging economy with an order driven market making system like India. Most of the previous studies have been carried out in developing economies with quote driven or hybrid market making system and their results are ambiguous across different periods. From an eclectic sense, this study may be considered as a baseline study to further find out the macroeconomic determinants of liquidity of stocks at individual as well as aggregate level.

Keywords: market liquidity, monetary policy, order driven market, VAR, vector autoregressive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 363
11355 U.S. Trade and Trade Balance with China: Testing for Marshall-Lerner Condition and the J-Curve Hypothesis

Authors: Anisul Islam

Abstract:

The U.S. has a very strong trade relationship with China but with a large and persistent trade deficit. Some has argued that the undervalued Chinese Yuan is to be blamed for the persistent trade deficit. The empirical results are mixed at best. This paper empirically estimates the U.S. export function along with the U.S. import function with its trade with China with the purpose of testing for the existence of the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition as well for the possible existence of the J-curve hypothesis. Annual export and import data will be utilized for as long as the time series data exists. The export and import functions will be estimated using advanced econometric techniques, along with appropriate diagnostic tests performed to examine the validity and reliability of the estimated results. The annual time-series data covers from 1975 to 2022 with a sample size of 48 years, the longest period ever utilized before in any previous study. The data is collected from several sources, such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, IMF Financial Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and several other sources. The paper is expected to shed important light on the ongoing debate regarding the persistent U.S. trade deficit with China and the policies that may be useful to reduce such deficits over time. As such, the paper will be of great interest for the academics, researchers, think tanks, global organizations, and policy makers in both China and the U.S.

Keywords: exports, imports, marshall-lerner condition, j-curve hypothesis, united states, china

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
11354 Nutritional Supplement Usage among Disabled Athletes

Authors: Aylin Hasbay Büyükkaragöz, Zehra Büyüktuncer, Tuğçe Nur Balcı, Nevin Ergun

Abstract:

Purpose: Nutritional supplement usage is widespread among athletes all over the world. However, the usage among disabled athletes is not well-known. This study aimed to evaluate dietary supplement use in disabled athletes, their motivation for consuming supplements, sources of information, and their side effect. Methods: A total of 75 Turkish National Team's disabled athletes (38 female, 37 male) from 5 sport branches (soccer, weight lifting, shooting, table tennis and basketball), aged 13- 55 years, were participated in the study. Nutritional supplement usage was inquired using a questionnaire by a dietitian at their preparation camps. Results: A total of 22.7% of the athletes (18.4% and 27% of, respectively females and males) used some type of dietary supplements. Protein (35.3%), amino acid (29.4%), carnitine (29.4%), creatine (23.5%) and glucosamine (23.5%) were mostly preferred nutritional supplements by all athletes. The most common supplements use was obtained among weightlifters (71.4%), followed by the athletes of soccer (23.5%), table tennis (15.4%), and basketball (6.7%). No nutritional supplement usage was observed among shooters. Total of 41.2% consumers declared more than one reason for taking nutritional supplements. The main motivation for supplement usage was improving athletic performance (63.5%). Other reasons were weight loss, weight gain, muscle development, health protection and nutritional support. Athletes were more likely to get recommendation about nutritional supplement usage from team coaches (48.9%). Of 35.6% athletes reported that they made their own decision about using supplements. Other information sources were health professional, family member, friend and sale manager of sport retail store. Only 3 of 17 athletes reported side effects which were increased urine output, weight gain, loss of appetite and intestinal gas. Conclusions: Nutritional supplement usage was not common among disabled athletes. However, getting information from incompetent sources is disquieting. Considering their health problems, accurate information from competent sources should be provided to disabled athletes. Moreover, long term effects of nutritional supplements among disabled athletes should be examined in further studies.

Keywords: disabled athletes, ergogenic aid, nutritional supplement, vitamin supplementation

Procedia PDF Downloads 313
11353 The Impact of CYP2C9 Gene Polymorphisms on Warfarin Dosing

Authors: Weaam Aldeeban, Majd Aljamali, Lama A. Youssef

Abstract:

Background & Objective: Warfarin is considered a problematic drug due to its narrow therapeutic window and wide inter-individual response variations, which are attributed to demographic, environmental, and genetic factors, particularly single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in the genes encoding VKORC1 and CYP2C9 involved in warfarin's mechanism of action and metabolism, respectively. CYP2C9*2rs1799853 and CYP2C9*3rs1057910 alleles are linked to reduced enzyme activity, as carriers of either or both alleles are classified as moderate or slow metabolizers, and therefore exhibit higher sensitivity of warfarin compared with wild type (CYP2C9*1*1). Our study aimed to assess the frequency of *1, *2, and *3 alleles in the CYP2C9 gene in a cohort of Syrian patients receiving a maintenance dose of warfarin for different indications, the impact of genotypes on warfarin dosing, and the frequency of adverse effects (i.e., bleedings). Subjects & Methods: This retrospective cohort study encompassed 94 patients treated with warfarin. Patients’ genotypes were identified by sequencing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) specific products of the gene encoding CYP2C9, and the effects on warfarin therapeutic outcomes were investigated. Results: Sequencing revealed that 43.6% of the study population has the *2 and/or *3 SNPs. The mean weekly maintenance dose of warfarin was 37.42 ± 15.5 mg for patients with the wild-type allele (CYP2C9*1*1), whereas patients with one or both variants (*2 and/or *3) demanded a significantly lower dose (28.59 ±11.58 mg) of warfarin, (P= 0.015). A higher percentage (40.7%) of patients with allele *2 and/or *3 experienced hemorrhagic accidents compared with only 17.9% of patients with the wild type *1*1, (P = 0.04). Conclusions: Our study proves an association between *2 and *3 genotypes and higher sensitivity to warfarin and a tendency to bleed, which necessitates lowering the dose. These findings emphasize the significance of CYP2C9 genotyping prior to commencing warfarin therapy in order to achieve optimal and faster dose control and to ensure effectiveness and safety.

Keywords: warfarin, CYP2C9, polymorphisms, Syrian, hemorrhage

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
11352 Simulation Study on Effects of Surfactant Properties on Surfactant Enhanced Oil Recovery from Fractured Reservoirs

Authors: Xiaoqian Cheng, Jon Kleppe, Ole Torsaeter

Abstract:

One objective of this work is to analyze the effects of surfactant properties (viscosity, concentration, and adsorption) on surfactant enhanced oil recovery at laboratory scale. The other objective is to obtain the functional relationships between surfactant properties and the ultimate oil recovery and oil recovery rate. A core is cut into two parts from the middle to imitate the matrix with a horizontal fracture. An injector and a producer are at the left and right sides of the fracture separately. The middle slice of the core is used as the model in this paper, whose size is 4cm x 0.1cm x 4.1cm, and the space of the fracture in the middle is 0.1 cm. The original properties of matrix, brine, oil in the base case are from Ekofisk Field. The properties of surfactant are from literature. Eclipse is used as the simulator. The results are followings: 1) The viscosity of surfactant solution has a positive linear relationship with surfactant oil recovery time. And the relationship between viscosity and oil production rate is an inverse function. The viscosity of surfactant solution has no obvious effect on ultimate oil recovery. Since most of the surfactant has no big effect on viscosity of brine, the viscosity of surfactant solution is not a key parameter of surfactant screening for surfactant flooding in fractured reservoirs. 2) The increase of surfactant concentration results a decrease of oil recovery rate and an increase of ultimate oil recovery. However, there are no functions could describe the relationships. Study on economy should be conducted because of the price of surfactant and oil. 3) In the study of surfactant adsorption, assume that the matrix wettability is changed to water-wet when the surfactant adsorption is to the maximum at all cases. And the ratio of surfactant adsorption and surfactant concentration (Cads/Csurf) is used to estimate the functional relationship. The results show that the relationship between ultimate oil recovery and Cads/Csurf is a logarithmic function. The oil production rate has a positive linear relationship with exp(Cads/Csurf). The work here could be used as a reference for the surfactant screening of surfactant enhanced oil recovery from fractured reservoirs. And the functional relationships between surfactant properties and the oil recovery rate and ultimate oil recovery help to improve upscaling methods.

Keywords: fractured reservoirs, surfactant adsorption, surfactant concentration, surfactant EOR, surfactant viscosity

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
11351 The Effects of Resident Fathers on the Children in South Africa: The Case of Selected Household in Golf View, Alice Town, Eastern Cape Province

Authors: Gabriel Acha Ekobi

Abstract:

Fathers play a crucial role in meeting family needs such as affection, protection, and socio-economic needs of children in the world in general and South Africa in particular. Fathers’ role in children’s lives is important in providing socialization, leadership skills, and teaching societal norms. Fathers influence is very significant for children’s well-being and development as it provides the child with moral lessons, guidance, and economic support. However, there is a paucity of information regarding the effects of fathers on children. In addition, despite legal frameworks such as the African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the child (1999) introduced by the African Union to promote child rights nevertheless, it appears maltreatment, abuse, and poor health care continue to face children. Also, the Constitution of 1996 of the Republic of South Africa (Section 28 of the Bill of Rights) and the Children’s Act 38 of 2005 were introduced by the South African government to foster the rights of children. Nevertheless, these legal frameworks remain ineffective as children’s rights are still neglected by resident fathers. This paper explores the impact of resident fathers on children in the Golf View, Alice town of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. A qualitative research method and an exploratory research design were utilized, and 30 participants took part in the study. The participants comprised of single mothers or caregivers of children, resident fathers and social workers. Eighteen (18) single mothers or caregivers, 10 resident fathers, and two (2) social workers participated in the study. Data was collected using semi-structured and unstructured interviews and analysed thematically. Two main themes were identified: the role of fathers on children and the effects of resident fathers on children. The study found that the presence of fathers in the lives of children prevented psychosocial issues such as stress, depression, violence, and substance abuse. A father’s presence in a household was crucial in instilling moral values in children. This allowed them to build positive characters such as respect, kindness, humility, and compassion. Children with more involved fathers tend to have fewer impulse control problems, longer attention spans, and a higher level of sociability. The study concludes that the fathers’ role prevented anxiety, depression, and stress and led to the improvement of children’s education performance. Nevertheless, the absence of a father as a role model to act as a leader by instilling moral values hinders positive behaviours in children. This study recommended that occupational training and life skills programmes should be introduced by the government and other stakeholders to empower the fathers as this might provide the platform for them to bring up their children properly.

Keywords: children, fathering, household, resident, single parent

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
11350 English Pashto Contact: Morphological Adaptation of Bilingual Compound Words in Pashto

Authors: Imran Ullah Imran

Abstract:

Language contact is a familiar concept in the present global world. Across the globe, languages get mixed up at different levels. Borrowing, code-switching are some of the means through which languages interact. This study examines Pashto-English contact at word and syllable levels. By recording the speech of 30 Pashto native speakers, selected via 'social network' sampling, the study located a number of Pashto-English compound words, which is a unique contact of its kind. In data analysis, tokens were categorized on the basis of their pattern and morphological structure. The study shows that Pashto-English Bilingual Compound words (BCWs) are very prevalent in the Pashto language. The study also found that the BCWs in Pashto are completely productive and have their own meanings. It also shows that the dominant pattern of hybrid words in Pashto is the conjugation of an independent English root word followed by a Pashto inflectional morpheme, which contributes to the core semantic content of the construction. The BCWs construction shows that how both the languages are closer to each other. Pashto-English contact results into bilingual compound and hybrid words, which forms a considerable number of tokens in the present-day spoken Pashto. On the basis of these findings, the study assumes that the same phenomenon may increase with the passage of time that would, in turn, result in the formation of more bilingual compound or hybrid words.

Keywords: code-mixing, bilingual compound words, pashto-english contact, hybrid words, inflectional lexical morpheme

Procedia PDF Downloads 236
11349 Garlic (Allium sativum) Extract Enhancing Protein Digestive Enzymes and Growth Performance in Marble Goby (Oxyleotris marmorata) Juvenile

Authors: Jaturong Matidtor, Krisna R. Torrissen, Saengtong Pongjareankit, Sudaporn Tongsiri, Jiraporn Rojtinnakorn

Abstract:

Low survival rate has being particular problem in nursery of marble goby juvenile. The aim of this study was to investigate effect of garlic extract on protein digestive pancreatic enzymes, trypsin (T) and chymotrypsin (C). The marble goby were reared with commercial feed mixed garlic extract at concentration of 0 (control), 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 3.0 and 5.0% (w/w) for 6 weeks. Analysis of the digestive enzymes at 2 and 6 weeks was performed. Growth parameters; weight gain (WG), specific growth rate (SGR) and feed efficiency (FE), were identified. For T, C and T/C at 2 weeks, values of T and T/C ratio of 0.3% (w/w) group showed significant difference (p < 0.05) with the highest values of 17685.64± 11981.77 U/mg protein and of 51.64 ± 27.46 U/mg protein, respectively. For C at 2 weeks, 0% (w/w) group showed the highest values of 16191.76± 2225.56 U/mg protein. Whereas value of T, C and T/C ratio at 6 weeks, there was no significant difference (p > 0.05). For growth performance, it significantly increased in all garlic extract fed groups (0.3-5.0%, w/w), both at 2 and 6 weeks. At 2 weeks, values of WG and SGR of 0.5% (w/w) group showed the highest values of 71.51 ± 1.60%, and 3.85 ± 0.07%, respectively. For FE, 0.3% (w/w) group showed the highest value of 60.21 ± 6.51%. At 6 weeks, it illustrated that all growth parameters of 5.0% (w/w) group were the highest values; WG = 35.06 ± 5.66%, SGR = 2.14 ± 0.30%, and FE = 5.86 ± 0.68%. We suggested that garlic extract could be available for protein digestive enzyme and growth enhancement in marble goby nursery with artificial feed. This result will be high benefit for commercial aquaculture of marble goby.

Keywords: marble goby, nursery, garlic extract, digestive enzyme, growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 310
11348 Adsorption Studies of Lead from Aqueos Solutions on Cocount Shell Activated Carbon

Authors: G. E. Sharaf El-Deen, S. E. A. Sharaf El-Deen

Abstract:

Activated carbon was prepared from coconut shell (ACS); a discarded agricultural waste was used to produce bioadsorbent through easy and environmental friendly processes. This activated carbon based biosorbent was evaluated for adsorptive removal of lead from water. The characterisation results showed this biosorbent had very high specific surface area and functional groups. The adsorption equilibrium data was well described by Langmuir, whilst kinetics data by pseudo-first order, pseudo-second order and Intraparticle diffusion models. The adsorption process could be described by the pseudo-second order kinetic.

Keywords: coconut shell, activated carbon, adsorption isotherm and kinetics, lead removal

Procedia PDF Downloads 291
11347 On Periodic Integer-Valued Moving Average Models

Authors: Aries Nawel, Bentarzi Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper deals with the study of some probabilistic and statistical properties of a Periodic Integer-Valued Moving Average Model (PINMA_{S}(q)). The closed forms of the mean, the second moment and the periodic autocovariance function are obtained. Furthermore, the time reversibility of the model is discussed in details. Moreover, the estimation of the underlying parameters are obtained by the Yule-Walker method, the Conditional Least Square method (CLS) and the Weighted Conditional Least Square method (WCLS). A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the estimation method. Moreover, an application on real data set is provided.

Keywords: periodic integer-valued moving average, periodically correlated process, time reversibility, count data

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
11346 Navigating Urban Childcare Challenges: Perspectives of Dhaka City Parents

Authors: Md. Shafiullah

Abstract:

This study delves into the evolving landscape of urban childcare in Bangladesh, focusing on the experiences and challenges faced by parents in Dhaka city. This paper argues that the traditional childcare arrangement of city families is inadequate to meet the development needs of children. The study aims to explore the childcare challenges faced by urban parents as they transition from traditional family-based childcare networks to alternative caregiving arrangements amidst urbanization, economic shifts, and social transformations. Utilizing a mixed-method research approach, combining quantitative surveys (n = 200) and four qualitative interviews, the research examines the parental viewpoints on childcare practices and the role of societal norms and values. The study finds childcare crises in both the family and daycare settings. In family care, caregiving suffers from the less availability of grandparents, a lack of skills of caregivers, and a lack of child interaction. As for the daycare, it is affected by the absence of appropriate policies, a lack of quality, health and safety concerns, affordability issues, and cultural concerns. Additionally, the study highlights inadequacies in childcare policies and regulatory frameworks, calling for comprehensive reforms to address the childcare vacuum in urban areas. By shifting the focus from developed to developing countries, this study contributes to the literature and suggests policy implications for Bangladesh and beyond.

Keywords: childcare, child development, childcare policy, daycare, Bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 42
11345 Rheological Evaluation of Various Indigenous Gums

Authors: Yogita Weikey, Shobha Lata Sinha, Satish Kumar Dewangan

Abstract:

In the present investigation, rheology of the three different natural gums has been evaluated experimentally using MCR 102 rheometer. Various samples based on the variation of the concentration of the solid gum powder have been prepared. Their non-Newtonian behavior has been observed by the consistency plots and viscosity variation plots with respect to different solid concentration. The viscosity-shear rate curves of gums are similar and the behavior is shear thinning. Gums are showing pseudoplastic behavior. The value of k and n are calculated by using various models. Results show that the Herschel–Bulkley rheological model is reliable to describe the relationship of shear stress as a function of shear rate. R² values are also calculated to support the choice of gum selection.

Keywords: bentonite, Indian gum, non-Newtonian model, rheology

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
11344 Closest Possible Neighbor of a Different Class: Explaining a Model Using a Neighbor Migrating Generator

Authors: Hassan Eshkiki, Benjamin Mora

Abstract:

The Neighbor Migrating Generator is a simple and efficient approach to finding the closest potential neighbor(s) with a different label for a given instance and so without the need to calibrate any kernel settings at all. This allows determining and explaining the most important features that will influence an AI model. It can be used to either migrate a specific sample to the class decision boundary of the original model within a close neighborhood of that sample or identify global features that can help localising neighbor classes. The proposed technique works by minimizing a loss function that is divided into two components which are independently weighted according to three parameters α, β, and ω, α being self-adjusting. Results show that this approach is superior to past techniques when detecting the smallest changes in the feature space and may also point out issues in models like over-fitting.

Keywords: explainable AI, EX AI, feature importance, counterfactual explanations

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
11343 Forecasting Market Share of Electric Vehicles in Taiwan Using Conjoint Models and Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

Abstract:

Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 54