Search results for: forest wastes

Authors: Saeid Gharechelou, Stuart Green, Fiona Cawkwell

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Hedgerow has an important role for a wide range of ecological habitats, landscape, agriculture management, carbon sequestration, wood production. Hedgerow detection accurately using satellite imagery is a challenging problem in remote sensing techniques, because in the special approach it is very similar to line object like a road, from a spectral viewpoint, a hedge is very similar to a forest. Remote sensors with very high spatial resolution (VHR) recently enable the automatic detection of hedges by the acquisition of images with enough spectral and spatial resolution. Indeed, recently VHR remote sensing data provided the opportunity to detect the hedgerow as line feature but still remain difficulties in monitoring the characterization in landscape scale. In this research is used the TerraSAR-x Spotlight and Staring mode with 3-5 m resolution in wet and dry season in the test site of Fermoy County, Ireland to detect the hedgerow by acquisition time of 2014-2015. Both dual polarization of Spotlight data in HH/VV is using for detection of hedgerow. The varied method of SAR image technique with try and error way by integration of classification algorithm like texture analysis, support vector machine, k-means and random forest are using to detect hedgerow and its characterization. We are applying the Shannon entropy (ShE) and backscattering analysis in single and double bounce in polarimetric analysis for processing the object-oriented classification and finally extracting the hedgerow network. The result still is in progress and need to apply the other method as well to find the best method in study area. Finally, this research is under way to ahead to get the best result and here just present the preliminary work that polarimetric image of TSX potentially can detect the hedgerow.

Keywords: TerraSAR-X, hedgerow detection, high resolution SAR image, dual polarization, polarimetric analysis

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Authors: Samuel O. Alamu, Seong W. Lee, Blaise Kalmia, Marc J. Louise Caballes, Xuejun Qian

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The application of combustion technologies for thermal conversion of biomass and solid wastes to energy has been a major solution to the effective handling of wastes over a long period of time. Lab-scale biomass combustion systems have been observed to be economically viable and socially acceptable, but major concerns are the environmental impacts of the process and deviation of temperature distribution within the combustion chamber. Both high and low combustion chamber temperature may affect the overall combustion efficiency and gaseous emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a control system which measures the deviations of chamber temperature from set target values, sends these deviations (which generates disturbances in the system) in the form of feedback signal (as input), and control operating conditions for correcting the errors. In this research study, major components of the feedback control system were determined, assembled, and tested. In addition, control algorithms were developed to actuate operating conditions (e.g., air velocity, fuel feeding rate) using ladder logic functions embedded in the Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). The developed control algorithm having chamber temperature as a feedback signal is integrated into the lab-scale swirling fluidized bed combustor (SFBC) to investigate the temperature distribution at different heights of the combustion chamber based on various operating conditions. The air blower rates and the fuel feeding rates obtained from automatic control operations were correlated with manual inputs. There was no observable difference in the correlated results, thus indicating that the written PLC program functions were adequate in designing the experimental study of the lab-scale SFBC. The experimental results were analyzed to study the effect of air velocity operating at 222-273 ft/min and fuel feeding rate of 60-90 rpm on the chamber temperature. The developed temperature-based feedback control system was shown to be adequate in controlling the airflow and the fuel feeding rate for the overall biomass combustion process as it helps to minimize the steady-state error.

Keywords: air flow, biomass combustion, feedback control signal, fuel feeding, ladder logic, programmable logic controller, temperature

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Authors: Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya Oxana, Fedosov Ivan, Blokhina Inna, Terskov Andrey, Evsukova Arina, Elovenko Daria, Adushkina Viktoria, Dubrovsky Alexander, Jürgen Kurths

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In modern neurobiology, sleep is considered a novel biomarker and a promising therapeutic target for brain diseases. This is due to recent discoveries of the nighttime activation of the brain lymphatic system (BLS), playing an important role in the removal of wastes and toxins from the brain and contributes neuroprotection of the central nervous system (CNS). In our review, we discuss that night stimulation of BLS might be a breakthrough strategy in a new treatment of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease, stroke, brain trauma, and oncology. Although this research is in its infancy, however, there are pioneering and promising results suggesting that night transcranial photostimulation (tPBM) stimulates more effectively lymphatic removal of amyloid-beta from mouse brain than daily tPBM that is associated with a greater improvement of the neurological status and recognition memory of animals. In our previous study, we discovered that tPBM modulates the tone and permeability of the lymphatic endothelium by stimulating NO formation, promoting lymphatic clearance of wastes and toxins from the brain tissues. We also demonstrate that tPBM can also lead to angio- and lymphangiogenesis, which is another mechanism underlying tPBM-mediated stimulation of BLS. Thus, photo-augmentation of BLS might be a promising therapeutic target for preventing or delaying brain diseases associated with BLS dysfunction. Here we present pioneering technology for simultaneous tPBM in humans and sleep monitoring for stimulation of BLS to remove toxins from CNS and modulation of brain immunity. The wireless-controlled gadget includes a flexible organic light-emitting diode (LED) source that is controlled directly by a sleep-tracking device via a mobile application. The designed autonomous LED source is capable of providing the required therapeutic dose of light radiation at a certain region of the patient’s head without disturbing of sleeping patient. To minimize patients' discomfort, advanced materials like flexible organic LEDs were used. Acknowledgment: This study was supported by RSF project No. 23-75-30001.

Keywords: brain diseases, brain lymphatic system, phototherapy, sleep

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Authors: Ombir Singh

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In spite of the religious and cultural pre-dominance of the river Ganga in the Indian ethos, fragmentation and degradation of the river continued down the ages. Recognizing the national concern on environmental degradation of the river and its basin, Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR,RD&GR), Government of India has initiated a number of pilot schemes for the rejuvenation of river Ganga under the ‘Namami Gange’ Programme. Considering the diversity, complexity, and intricacies of forest ecosystems and pivotal multiple functions performed by them and their inter-connectedness with highly dynamic river ecosystems, forestry interventions all along the river Ganga from its origin at Gaumukh, Uttarakhand to its mouth at Ganga Sagar, West Bengal has been planned by the ministry. For that Forest Research Institute (FRI) in collaboration with National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) has prepared a Detailed Project Report (DPR) on Forestry Interventions for Ganga. The Institute has adopted an extensive consultative process at the national and state levels involving various stakeholders relevant in the context of river Ganga and employed a science-based methodology including use of remote sensing and GIS technologies for geo-spatial analysis, modeling and prioritization of sites for proposed forestation and conservation interventions. Four sets of field data formats were designed to obtain the field based information for forestry interventions, mainly plantations and conservation measures along the river course. In response, five stakeholder State Forest Departments had submitted more than 8,000 data sheets to the Institute. In order to analyze a voluminous field data received from five participating states, the Institute also developed a software to collate, analyze and generation of reports on proposed sites in Ganga basin. FRI has developed potential plantation and treatment models for the proposed forestry and other conservation measures in major three types of landscape components visualized in the Ganga riverscape. These are: (i) Natural, (ii) Agriculture, and (iii) Urban Landscapes. Suggested plantation models broadly varied for the Uttarakhand Himalayas and the Ganga Plains in five participating states. Besides extensive plantations in three type of landscapes within the riverscape, various conservation measures such as soil and water conservation, riparian wildlife management, wetland management, bioremediation and bio-filtration and supporting activities such as policy and law intervention, concurrent research, monitoring and evaluation, and mass awareness campaigns have been envisioned in the DPR. The DPR also incorporates the details of the implementation mechanism, budget provisioned for different components of the project besides allocation of budget state-wise to five implementing agencies, national partner organizations and the Nodal Ministry.

Keywords: conservation, Ganga, river, water, forestry interventions

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Authors: Ambali Alade Odebowale, Andargachew Mekonnen Berhe, Haroldo T. Hattori, Andrey E. Miroshnichenko

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Solar thermophotovoltaic systems (STPV) have emerged as a promising solution to overcome the Shockley-Queisser limit, a significant impediment in the direct conversion of solar radiation into electricity using conventional solar cells. The STPV system comprises essential components such as an optical concentrator, selective emitter, and a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) cell. The pivotal element in achieving high efficiency in an STPV system lies in the design of a spectrally selective emitter or absorber. Traditional methods for designing and optimizing selective emitters are often time-consuming and may not yield highly selective emitters, posing a challenge to the overall system performance. In recent years, the application of machine learning techniques in various scientific disciplines has demonstrated significant advantages. This paper proposes a novel nanostructure composed of four-layered materials (SiC/W/SiO2/W) to function as a selective emitter in the energy conversion process of an STPV system. Unlike conventional approaches widely adopted by researchers, this study employs a machine learning-based approach for the design and optimization of the selective emitter. Specifically, a random forest algorithm (RFA) is employed for the design of the selective emitter, while the optimization process is executed using genetic algorithms. This innovative methodology holds promise in addressing the challenges posed by traditional methods, offering a more efficient and streamlined approach to selective emitter design. The utilization of a machine learning approach brings several advantages to the design and optimization of a selective emitter within the STPV system. Machine learning algorithms, such as the random forest algorithm, have the capability to analyze complex datasets and identify intricate patterns that may not be apparent through traditional methods. This allows for a more comprehensive exploration of the design space, potentially leading to highly efficient emitter configurations. Moreover, the application of genetic algorithms in the optimization process enhances the adaptability and efficiency of the overall system. Genetic algorithms mimic the principles of natural selection, enabling the exploration of a diverse range of emitter configurations and facilitating the identification of optimal solutions. This not only accelerates the design and optimization process but also increases the likelihood of discovering configurations that exhibit superior performance compared to traditional methods. In conclusion, the integration of machine learning techniques in the design and optimization of a selective emitter for solar thermophotovoltaic systems represents a groundbreaking approach. This innovative methodology not only addresses the limitations of traditional methods but also holds the potential to significantly improve the overall performance of STPV systems, paving the way for enhanced solar energy conversion efficiency.

Keywords: emitter, genetic algorithm, radiation, random forest, thermophotovoltaic

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Authors: Shafiq Alam, Manjunathan Ulaganathan

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Water/wastewater often contains heavy/toxic metals, such as lead, copper, zinc and arsenic as well as harmful elements, such as antimony, selenium and fluoride. It may also contains radioactive elements, such as cesium and strontium. If they are not removed from water/wastewater then the environment and human health can be negatively impacted. Extensive research has been carried out to remove such harmful metals/elements from water/wastewater through biosorption using biomaterials (bioadsorbents). This presentation will give an overview of the research on preparation of bioadsorbents from biomass wastes and their use for the removal of harmful metals/elements from aqueous media.

Keywords: biosorption, environmental, toxic metals, wastewater

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Authors: Luis M. Ribeiro, Jorge Raposo, Ricardo Oliveira, David Caballero, Domingos X. Viegas

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Under the scope of European project WUIWATCH a set of experimental tests on house vulnerability was performed in order to assess the resistance of selected house components during the passage of a forest fire. Among the individual elements most affected by the passage of a wildfire the windows are the ones with greater exposure. In this sense, a set of exploratory experimental tests was designed to assess some particular aspects related to the vulnerability of windows and blinds. At the same time, the importance of leaving them closed (as well as the doors inside a house) during a wild fire was explored in order to give some scientific background to guidelines for homeowners. Three sets of tests were performed: 1. Windows and blinds resistance to heat. Three types of protective blinds were tested (aluminium, PVC and wood) on 2 types of windows (single and double pane). The objective was to assess the structures resistance. 2. The influence of air flow on the transport of burning embers inside a house. A room was built to scale, and placed inside a wind tunnel, with one window and one door on opposite sides. The objective was to assess the importance of leaving an inside door opened on the probability of burning embers entering the room. 3. The influence of the dimension of openings on a window or door related to the probability of ignition inside a house. The objective was to assess the influence of different window openings in relation to the amount of burning particles that can enter a house. The main results were: 1. The purely radiative heat source provides 1.5 KW/m2 of heat impact in the structure, while the real fire generates 10 Kw/m2. When protected by the blind, the single pane window reaches 30ºC on both sides, and the double pane window has a differential of 10º from the side facing the heat (30ºC) and the opposite side (40ºC). Unprotected window constantly increases temperature until the end of the test. Window blinds reach considerably higher temperatures. PVC loses its consistency above 150ºC and melts. 2. Leaving the inside door closed results in a positive pressure differential of +1Pa from the outside to the inside, inhibiting the air flow. Opening the door in half or full reverts the pressure differential to -6 and -8 times respectively, favouring the air flow from the outside to the inside. The number of particles entering the house follows the same tendency. 3. As the bottom opening in a window increases from 0,5 cm to 4 cm the number of particles that enter the house per second also increases greatly. From 5 cm until 80cm there is no substantial increase in the number of entering particles. This set of exploratory tests proved to be an added value in supporting guidelines for home owners, regarding self-protection in WUI areas.

Keywords: forest fire, wildland urban interface, house vulnerability, house protective elements

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Authors: Tamirat Solomon, Aberash Yohannis, Efrem Gulfo

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The plantation of trees, which harmonizes the agroecology of the environment, has been implemented in Ethiopia with great concern for a noticeably degraded environment. This study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of green legacy, species selection and, the rate of survival, and the management status in the study areas. A systematic sampling method was employed to collect the required data from 144 quadrants measuring a 15m radius with an interval of 40m apart. Additionally, 244 sample households were selected for the socioeconomic study in addition to secondary data collected from office recordings. The data collected was analyzed using multivariate analysis, considering exposure and outcome variables. The findings of this study indicated that four exotic tree species, namely; A. salgina, C. fistula, A. indica, and G. robusta, were commonly selected tree species for degraded land restoration in the study areas. Among the seedlings planted at the four study sites, a total of 79.9% survived, and A. salgina was the dominant and best performed species, A. indica was the least survived species in the entire study area. The age of the seedling before planting significantly (p = 0.05) affected the survival potential of most seedlings of species, and the majority (82%) of local communities expressed their positive attitudes and willingness to manage the restoration works in the study areas. It was recommended to consider the inclusion of native species in the restoration effort and evaluate the co-existence of native flora with exotic and its competition for nutrients, water, and light in addition to the invading potentials in the ecosystem. In general, before embarking on degraded land restoration, species selection, adequate preparation of seedlings, and species diversity composition that exactly fit the socioeconomic and ecological demands of the areas must get the attention for the success of the restoration.

Keywords: plantation forest, degraded land, forest restoration, plantation survival, species selection

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Authors: Mohamed H. Sorour, Hayam F. Shaalan, Heba A. Hani, Eman S. Sayed, Amany A. El-Mansoup

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Heavy metals (HMs) present an increasing threat to aquatic and soil environment. Thus, techniques should be developed for the removal and/or recovery of those HMs from point sources in the generating industries. This paper reports our endeavors concerning the development of in-house developed weak cation exchange polyacrylate hydrogel kaolin composites for heavy metals removal. This type of composite enables desirable characteristics and functions including mechanical strength, bed porosity and cost advantages. This paper emphasizes the effect of varying crosslinker (methylenebis(acrylamide)) concentration. The prepared cation exchanger has been subjected to intensive characterization using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and Brunauer Emmett and Teller (BET) method. Moreover, the performance was investigated using synthetic and real wastewater for an industrial complex east of Cairo. Simulated and real wastewater compositions addressed; Cr, Co, Ni, and Pb are in the range of (92-115), (91-103), (86-88) and (99-125), respectively. Adsorption experiments have been conducted in both batch and column modes. In general, batch tests revealed enhanced cation exchange capacities of 70, 72, 78.2 and 99.9 mg/g from single synthetic wastes while, removal efficiencies of 82.2, 86.4, 44.4 and 96% were obtained for Cr, Co, Ni and Pb, respectively from mixed synthetic wastes. It is concluded that the mixed synthetic and real wastewaters have lower adsorption capacities than single solutions. It is worth mentioned that Pb attained higher adsorption capacities with comparable results in all tested concentrations of synthetic and real wastewaters. Pilot scale experiments were also conducted for mixed synthetic waste in a fluidized bed column for 48 hour cycle time which revealed 86.4%, 58.5%, 66.8% and 96.9% removal efficiency for Cr, Co, Ni, and Pb, respectively with maximum regeneration was also conducted using saline and acid regenerants. Maximum regeneration efficiencies for the column studies higher than the batch ones about by about 30% to 60%. Studies are currently under way to enhance the regeneration efficiency to enable successful scaling up of the adsorption column.

Keywords: polyacrylate hydrogel kaolin, ultrasonic irradiation, heavy metals, adsorption and regeneration

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Authors: Allaw Kamel, Bazzi Hasan

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Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is among the most significant sources which threaten the global environmental health. Solid Waste Management has been an important environmental problem in developing countries because of the difficulties in finding sustainable solutions for solid wastes. Therefore, more efforts are needed to be implemented to overcome this problem. Lebanon has suffered a severe solid waste management problem in 2015, and a new landfill site was proposed to solve the existing problem. The study aims to identify and locate the most suitable area to construct a landfill taking into consideration the sustainable development to overcome the present situation and protect the future demands. Throughout the article, a landfill site selection methodology was discussed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Several environmental, economic and social factors were taken as criterion for selection of a landfill. Soil, geology, and LUC (Land Use and Land Cover) indices with the Sustainable Development Index were main inputs to create the final map of Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) for landfill site. Different factors were determined to define each index. Input data of each factor was managed, visualized and analyzed using GIS. GIS was used as an important tool to identify suitable areas for landfill. Spatial Analysis (SA), Analysis and Management GIS tools were implemented to produce input maps capable of identifying suitable areas related to each index. Weight has been assigned to each factor in the same index, and the main weights were assigned to each index used. The combination of the different indices map generates the final output map of ESA. The output map was reclassified into three suitability classes of low, moderate, and high suitability. Results showed different locations suitable for the construction of a landfill. Results also reflected the importance of GIS and MCDA in helping decision makers finding a solution of solid wastes by a sanitary landfill.

Keywords: sustainable development, landfill, municipal solid waste (MSW), geographic information system (GIS), multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA), environmentally sensitive area (ESA)

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Authors: Debit Datta, Jeffrey J. Coleman, Scott A. Enebak, Lori G. Eckhardt

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Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) is a leading productive timber species in the southeastern USA. Over the past three years, an emerging threat is expressed by successive needle defoliation followed by stunted growth and tree mortality in loblolly pine plantations. Considering economic significance, it has now become a rising concern among landowners, forest managers, and forest health state cooperators. However, the symptoms of the disease were perplexed somewhat with root disease(s) and recurrently attributed to invasive Phytophthora species due to the similarity of disease nature and devastation. Therefore, the study investigated the potential causal agent of this disease and characterized the fungi associated with loblolly pine needle defoliation in the southeastern USA. Besides, 70 trees were selected at seven long-term monitoring plots at Chatom, Alabama, to monitor and record the annual disease incidence and severity. Based on colony morphology and ITS-rDNA sequence data, a total of 28 species of fungi representing 17 families have been recovered from diseased loblolly pine needles. The native brown-spot pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, was the species most frequently recovered from unhealthy loblolly pine needles in combination with some other common needle cast and rust pathogen(s). Identification was confirmed using morphological similarity and amplification of translation elongation factor 1-alpha gene region of interest. Tagged trees were consistently found chlorotic and defoliated from 2019 to 2020. The current emergence of the brown-spot pathogen causing loblolly pine mortality necessitates the investigation of the role of changing climatic conditions, which might be associated with increased pathogen pressure to loblolly pines in the southeastern USA.

Keywords: brown-spot needle blight, loblolly pine, needle defoliation, plantation forestry

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Authors: Surachart Koyadun

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Currently, Plasmodium knowlesi malaria has spread to almost all countries in Southeast Asia. This research aimed to 1) describe the epidemiology of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria, 2) examine the clinical symptoms of P. knowlesi malaria patients 3) analyze the ecology, animal reservoir and entomology of P. knowlesi malaria. 4) summarize the diagnosis, blood parasites, and treatment of P. knowlesi malaria. The study design was a case report combined with retrospective descriptive survey research. A total of 34 study subjects were patients with a confirmed diagnosis of P. knowlesi malaria who received treatment at hospitals and vector-borne disease control units in Songkhla Province during 2021 – 2022. The results of the epidemiological study unveiled the majority of the samples were male, had a history of staying overnight in the forest before becoming sick, the source of the infection was in the forest, and the season during which they were sick was mostly summer. The average length of time from the onset of illness until receiving a blood test was 3.8 days. The average length of hospital stay was 4 days. Patients were treated with Chloroquine Phosphate, Primaquine, Artesunate, Quinine, and Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (40 mg DHA-320 mg PPQ). One death was seen in 34 P. knowlesi malaria patients. All remaining patients recovered and responded to treatment. All symptoms improved after drug administration. No treatment failures were found. Analyses of ecological, zoonotic and entomological data revealed an association between infected patients and forested, monkey-hosted and mosquito-transmitted areas. The recommendation from this study was that the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) method should be used in conjunction with the Thick/Thin Film test and blood parasite test (Parasitaemia) for the specificity of the infection, accuracy of diagnosis, leading to treatment of disease in a timely manner and be effective in disease control.

Keywords: human malaria, Plasmodium knowlesi, zoonotic disease, diagnosis and treatment, epidemiology, ecology

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Authors: Lydia Murugi Mugendi

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The promotion of tree growing as a lucrative enterprise is the focus of this paper as management practices have shifted focus from protection of natural forest resources to community/government partnerships with the aim of resource conservation, management and increase of on-farm tree growing. Using KEFRI as (the source) of information pertaining Melia volkensii (the medium or message) being transferred, this paper investigates the current perception towards forestry and the behavioural attitudes of recipients of forest intervention activities. The two objectives explored in this paper are to find out the level of adoption of Mukau in Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru and secondly, to find out the characteristics of the adoption process between Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru. The methodologies used during data collection were participatory rural appraisal tools in conjunction with the social survey questionnaires. Simple random sampling and snowball sampling were used to identify respondents within the three target sites and analysis was done using SPSS. Results of the study of indicating that adoption rates of the Mukau in Samburu/Taru, where forestry-related activities were introduced within the past one decade had significantly increase despite initial resistance. The other areas, which had benefited from numerous decades of intense forestry extension projects and activities, indicated a decline in re-adoption rates of Mukau as an enterprise. This study has brought out the reality of adoption trends and state of Mukau population within the three counties while providing a glimpse towards the communities’ perception in regards to adoption of forestry and other environmental innovations. The outcome of the study is to provide a guideline for extension/ dissemination officers in KEFRI and related stakeholders to promote seamless cohesive interaction between the recipient communities of the proposed interventions.

Keywords: adoption, innovation, enterprise, extension, DOI Theory

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Authors: Stephen Dankwa, Zheng Wenfeng, Xiaolu Li

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Climate change is recently gaining the attention of many countries across the world. Climate change, which is also known as global warming, referring to the increasing in average surface temperature has been a concern to the Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Recently, Ghana has become vulnerable to the effect of the climate change as a result of the dependence of the majority of the population on agriculture. The clearing down of trees to grow crops and burning of charcoal in the country has been a contributing factor to the rise in temperature nowadays in the country as a result of releasing of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases into the air. Recently, petroleum stations across the cities have been on fire due to this climate changes and which have position Ghana in a way not able to withstand this climate event. As a result, the significant of this research paper is to project how the rise in the average surface temperature will be like at the end of the mid-21st century when agriculture and deforestation are allowed to continue for some time in the country. This study uses the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment RCP 8.5 model output data to monitor the future climate changes from 2041-2050, at the end of the mid-21st century over the ten (10) major cities (Accra, Bolgatanga, Cape Coast, Koforidua, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, Sunyani, Ho, Tamale, Wa) in Ghana. In the models, Support Vector Machine and Random forest, where the cities as a function of heat wave metrics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, heat wave duration and number of heat waves) assisted to provide more than 50% accuracy to predict and monitor the pattern of the surface air temperature. The findings identified were that the near-surface air temperature will rise between 1°C-2°C (degrees Celsius) over the coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi). The temperature over Kumasi, Ho and Sunyani by the end of 2050 will rise by 1°C. In Koforidua, it will rise between 1°C-2°C. The temperature will rise in Bolgatanga, Tamale and Wa by 0.5°C by 2050. This indicates how the coastal and the southern part of the country are becoming hotter compared with the north, even though the northern part is the hottest. During heat waves from 2041-2050, Bolgatanga, Tamale, and Wa will experience the highest mean daily air temperature between 34°C-36°C. Kumasi, Koforidua, and Sunyani will experience about 34°C. The coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi) will experience below 32°C. Even though, the coastal cities will experience the lowest mean temperature, they will have the highest number of heat waves about 62. Majority of the heat waves will last between 2 to 10 days with the maximum 30 days. The surface temperature will continue to rise by the end of the mid-21st century (2041-2050) over the major cities in Ghana and so needs to be addressed to the Environmental Protection Agency in Ghana in order to mitigate this problem.

Keywords: climate changes, CMIP5, Ghana, heat waves, random forest, SVM

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Authors: Saloni Khandelwal

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The Aravalli hills are one of the oldest and most distinctive mountain chains of peninsular India spanning in around 692 Km. More than 60% of it falls in the state of Rajasthan and influences ecological equilibrium in about 30% of the state. Because of natural and human-induced activities, physical gaps in the Aravallis are increasing, new gaps are coming up, and its physical structure is changing. There are no strict regulations to protect and monitor the Aravallis and no comprehensive research and study has been done for the enhancement of ecosystem functions of these ranges. Through this study, various factors leading to Aravalli’s degradation are identified and its impacts on selected areas are analyzed. A literature study is done to identify factors responsible for the degradation. To understand the severity of the problem at the lowest level, two tehsils from different districts in Rajasthan, which are the most affected due to illegal mining and increasing physical gaps are selected for the study. Case-1 of three-gram panchayats in Kishangarh Tehsil of Ajmer district focuses on the expanding physical gaps in the Aravalli range, and case-2 of three-gram panchayats in Tijara Tehsil of Alwar district focuses on increasing illegal mining in the Aravalli range. For measuring the degradation, physical, biological and social indicators are identified through literature review and for both the cases analysis is done on the basis of these indicators. Primary survey and focus group discussions are done with villagers, mining owners, illegal miners, and various government officials to understand dependency of people on the Aravalli and its importance to them along with the impact of degradation on their livelihood and environment. From the analysis, it has been found that green cover is continuously decreasing in both cases, dense forest areas do not exist now, the groundwater table is depleting at a very fast rate, soil is losing its moisture resulting in low yield and shift in agriculture. Wild animals which were easily seen earlier are now extinct. Cattles of villagers are dependent on the forest area in the Aravalli range for food, but with a decrease in fodder, their cattle numbers are decreasing. There is a decrease in agricultural land and an increase in scrub and salt-affected land. Analysis of various national and state programmes, acts which were passed to conserve biodiversity has been done showing that none of them is helping much to protect the Aravalli. For conserving the Aravalli and its forest areas, regional level and local level initiatives are required and are proposed in this study. This study is an attempt to formulate conservation and management strategies for the Aravalli range. These strategies will help in improving biodiversity which can lead to the revival of its ecosystem functions. It will also help in curbing the pollution at the regional and local level. All this will lead to the sustainable development of the region.

Keywords: Aravalli, ecosystem, LULC, Rajasthan

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Authors: Danica Maljkovic, Igor Balen, Bojana Dalbelo Basic

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Following the regulation of EU Directive on Energy Efficiency, specifically Article 9, individual metering in district heating systems has to be introduced by the end of 2016. These directions have been implemented in member state’s legal framework, Croatia is one of these states. The directive allows installation of both heat metering devices and heat cost allocators. Mainly due to bad communication and PR, the general public false image was created that the heat cost allocators are devices that save energy. Although this notion is wrong, the aim of this work is to develop a model that would precisely express the influence of installation heat cost allocators on potential energy savings in each unit within multifamily buildings. At the same time, in recent years, a science of machine learning has gain larger application in various fields, as it is proven to give good results in cases where large amounts of data are to be processed with an aim to recognize a pattern and correlation of each of the relevant parameter as well as in the cases where the problem is too complex for a human intelligence to solve. A special method of machine learning, decision tree method, has proven an accuracy of over 92% in prediction general building consumption. In this paper, a machine learning algorithms will be used to isolate the sole impact of installation of heat cost allocators on a single building in multifamily houses connected to district heating systems. Special emphasises will be given regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method.

Keywords: district heating, heat cost allocator, energy efficiency, machine learning, decision tree model, regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method

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Authors: Stellina Jolly

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July 18th to August 19th 2013 has gone down in the history of India for undertaking the country’s first environment referendum. The Supreme Court had ruled that the Vedanta Group's bauxite mining project in the Niyamgiri Hills of Orissa will have to get clearance from the gram sabha, which will consider the cultural and religious rights of the tribals and forest dwellers living in Rayagada and Kalahandi districts. In the Niyamgiri hills, people of small tribal hamlets were asked to voice their opinion on bauxite mining in their habitat. The ministry has reiterated its stand that mining cannot be allowed on the Niyamgiri hills because it will affect the rights of the Dongria Kondhs. The tribal person who occupies the Niyamgiri Hills in Eastern India accomplished their first success in 2010 in their struggle to protect and preserve their existence, culture and land against Vedanta a London-based mining giant. In August, 2010 Government of India revoked permission for Vedanta Resources to mine bauxite from hills in Orissa State where the Dongria Kondh live as forest dwellers. This came after various protests and reports including amnesty report wherein it highlighted that an alumina refinery in eastern India operated by a subsidiary of mining company. Vedanta was accused of causing air and water pollution that threatens the health of local people and their access to water. The abuse of human rights by corporate is not a new issue it has occurred in Africa, Asia and other parts of the world. Paper focuses on the instances and extent of human right especially in terms of environment violations by corporations. Further Paper details on corporations and sustainable development. Paper finally comes up with certain recommendation including call for a declaration by United Nations on Corporate environment Human Rights Liability.

Keywords: environment, corporate, human rights, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: S. Kızıltas Demir, A. S. Kipcak, E. Moroydor Derun, N. Tugrul, S. Piskin

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Flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FGD) is a waste material arouse from coal power plants. Hydroxyapatite (HAP) is a biomaterial with porous structure. In this study, FGD gypsum which retrieved from coal power plant in Turkey was characterized and HAP particles which can be used as an adsorbent in wastewater treatment application were synthesized from the FGD gypsum. The raw materials are characterized by using X Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) techniques and produced HAP are characterized by using XRD. As a result, HAP particles were synthesized at the molar ratio of 5:10, 5:15, 5:20, 5:24, at room temperature, in alkaline medium (pH=11) and in 1 hour-reaction time. Among these conditions, 5:20 had the best result.

Keywords: FGD wastes, HAP, phosphogypsum, waste water

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Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R, Bhamidipati Naga Shrikarti

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In the realm of cricket, particularly within the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the ability to predict team scores accurately holds significant importance for both cricket enthusiasts and stakeholders alike. This paper presents a comprehensive study on IPL score prediction utilizing various machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), XGBoost, Multiple Regression, Linear Regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest. Through meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model selection, we aimed to develop a robust predictive framework capable of forecasting team scores with high precision. Our experimentation involved the analysis of historical IPL match data encompassing diverse match and player statistics. Leveraging this data, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to train and evaluate the performance of each model. Notably, Multiple Regression emerged as the top-performing algorithm, achieving an impressive accuracy of 77.19% and a precision of 54.05% (within a threshold of +/- 10 runs). This research contributes to the advancement of sports analytics by demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting IPL team scores. The findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive modeling techniques to provide valuable insights for cricket enthusiasts, team management, and betting agencies. Additionally, this study serves as a benchmark for future research endeavors aimed at enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of IPL score prediction models.

Keywords: indian premier league (IPL), cricket, score prediction, machine learning, support vector machines (SVM), xgboost, multiple regression, linear regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest, sports analytics

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Authors: Mercedes Del Rio Merino, Jaime Santacruz Astorqui, Paola Villoria Saez, Carmen Viñas Arrebola

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The lack of treatment of the waste from construction and demolition waste (CDW) is a problem that must be solved immediately. It is estimated that in the world not to use CDW generates an increase in the use of new materials close to 20% of the total value of the materials used. The problem is even greater in case these wastes are considered hazardous because the final deposition of them may also generate significant contamination. Therefore, the possibility of including CDW in the manufacturing of building materials, represents an interesting alternative to ensure their use and to reduce their possible risk. In this context and in the last years, many researches are being carried out in order to analyze the viability of using CDW as a substitute for the traditional raw material of high environmental impact. Even though it is true, much remains to be done, because these works generally characterize materials but not specific applications that allow the agents of the construction to have the guarantees required by the projects. Therefore, it is necessary the involvement of all the actors included in the life cycle of these new construction materials, and also to promote its use for, for example, definition of standards, tax advantages or market intervention is necessary. This paper presents the main findings reached in "Waste to resources (W2R)" project since it began in October 2014. The main goal of the project is to develop new materials, elements and construction systems, manufactured from CDW, to be used in improving the energy efficiency of buildings. Other objectives of the project are: to quantify the CDW generated in the energy rehabilitation works, specifically wastes from the building envelope; and to study the traceability of CDW generated and promote CDW reuse and recycle in order to get close to the life cycle of buildings, generating zero waste and reducing the ecological footprint of the construction sector. This paper determines the most important aspects to consider during the design of new constructive solutions, which improve the energy efficiency of buildings and what materials made with CDW would be the most suitable for that. Also, a survey to select best practices for reducing "close to zero waste" in refurbishment was done. Finally, several pilot rehabilitation works conform the parameters analyzed in the project were selected, in order to apply the results and thus compare the theoretical with reality. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by the Spanish State Secretariat for Research, Development and Innovation of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under "Waste 2 Resources" Project (BIA2013-43061-R).

Keywords: building waste, construction and demolition waste, recycling, resources

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Authors: Raheleh Farzanmanesh, Christopher J. Weston

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Mangroves are forest ecosystems located in the inter-tidal regions of tropical and subtropical coastlines that provide many valuable economic and ecological benefits for millions of people, such as preventing coastal erosion, providing breeding, and feeding grounds, improving water quality, and supporting the well-being of local communities. In addition, mangroves capture and store high amounts of carbon in biomass and soils that play an important role in combating climate change. The decline in mangrove area has prompted government and private sector interest in mangrove conservation and restoration projects to achieve multiple Sustainable Development Goals, from reducing poverty to improving life on land. Mangrove aboveground biomass plays an essential role in the global carbon cycle, climate change mitigation and adaptation by reducing CO2 emissions. However, little information is available about the effectiveness of mangrove sustainable management on mangrove change area and aboveground biomass (AGB). Here, we proposed a method for mapping, modeling, and assessing mangrove area and AGB in two Global Environment Facility (GEF) blue forests projects based on Sentinel-2 Level 1C imagery during their conservation lifetime. The SVR regression model was used to estimate AGB in Tahiry Honko project in Madagascar and the Abu Dhabi Blue Carbon Demonstration Project (Abu Dhabi Emirates. The results showed that mangrove forests and AGB declined in the Tahiry Honko project, while in the Abu Dhabi project increased after the conservation initiative was established. The results provide important information on the impact of mangrove conservation activities and contribute to the development of remote sensing applications for mapping and assessing mangrove forests in blue carbon initiatives.

Keywords: blue carbon, mangrove forest, REDD+, aboveground biomass, Sentinel-2

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Authors: Tuğrul Varol, Halil Barış Özel

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In this study which has been conducted in Akçasu Forest Range District of Devrek Forest Directorate; 3 methods (cover removal with human force, cover removal with Hitachi F20 Excavator, and cover removal with agricultural equipment mounted on a Ferguson 240S agriculture tractor) utilized in weed control efforts in regeneration of degraded oriental beech forests have been compared. In this respect, 3 methods have been compared by determining certain work hours and standard durations of unit areas (1 hectare). For this purpose, evaluating the tasks made with human and machine force from the aspects of duration, productivity and costs, it has been aimed to determine the most productive method in accordance with the actual ecological conditions of research field. Within the scope of the study, the time studies have been conducted for 3 methods used in weed control efforts. While carrying out those studies, the performed implementations have been evaluated by dividing them into business stages. Also, the actual data have been used while calculating the cost accounts. In those calculations, the latest formulas and equations which are also used in developed countries have been utilized. The variance of analysis (ANOVA) was used in order to determine whether there is any statistically significant difference among obtained results, and the Duncan test was used for grouping if there is significant difference. According to the measurements and findings carried out within the scope of this study, it has been found during living cover removal efforts in regeneration efforts in demolished oriental beech forests that the removal of weed layer in 1 hectare of field has taken 920 hours with human force, 15.1 hours with excavator and 60 hours with an equipment mounted on a tractor. On the other hand, it has been determined that the cost of removal of living cover in unit area (1 hectare) was 3220.00 TL for man power, 788.70 TL for excavator and 2227.20 TL for equipment mounted on a tractor. According to the obtained results, it has been found that the utilization of excavator in weed control effort in regeneration of degraded oriental beech regions under actual ecological conditions of research field has been found to be more productive from both of aspects of duration and costs. These determinations carried out should be repeated in weed control efforts in degraded forest fields with different ecological conditions, it is compulsory for finding the most efficient weed control method. These findings will light the way of technical staff of forestry directorate in determination of the most effective and economic weed contol method. Thus, the more actual data will be used while preparing the weed control budgets, and there will be significant contributions to national economy. Also the results of this and similar studies are very important for developing the policies for our forestry in short and long term.

Keywords: artificial regeneration, weed control, oriental beech, productivity, mechanization, man power, cost analysis

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Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad, Chutchai Ditchareon, Suwaree Yordchim

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This research was to study on background and social and cultural context of Kamchanoad community for sustainable tourism management. All data was collected through in-depth interview with village headmen, community committees, teacher, monks, Kamchanoad forest field officers and respected senior citizen above 60 years old in the community who have lived there for more than 40 years. Altogether there were 30 participants for this research. After analyzing the data, content from interview and discussion, Kamchanoad has both high land and low land in the region as well as swamps that are very capable of freshwater animals’ conservation. Kamchanoad is also good for agriculture and animal farming. 80% of Kamchanoad’s land are forest, freshwater and rice farms. Kamchanoad was officially set up as community in 1994 as “Baan Nonmuang”. Inhabitants in Kamchanoad make a living by farming based on sufficiency economy. They have rice farm, eucalyptus farm, cassava farm and rubber tree farm. Local people in Kamchanoad still believe in the myth of Srisutto Naga. They are still religious and love to preserve their traditional way of life. In order to understand how to create successful tourism business in Kamchanoad, we have to study closely on local culture and traditions. Outstanding event in Kamchanoad is the worship of Grand Srisutto, which is on the full-moon day of 6th month or Visakhabucha Day. Other big events are also celebration at the end of Buddhist lent, Naga firework, New Year celebration, Boon Mahachart, Songkran, Buddhist Lent, Boon Katin and Loy Kratong. Buddhism is the main religion in Kamchanoad. The promotion of tourism in Kamchanoad is expected to help spreading more income for this region. More infrastructures will be provided for local people as well as funding for youth support and people activities.

Keywords: social and culture area, tourism management, Kamchanoad Community, Udon Thani Province

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Gul Jan

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It is the first quantitative ethno-botanical analysis and conservation issues of medicinal flora of Alpine and Sub-alpine, Hindikush region of Pakistan. The objective of the study aims to report, compare the uses and highlight the ethno-Botanical significance of medicinal plants for treatment of various diseases. A total of 250 (242 males and 8 females) local informants including 10 Local Traditional Healers were interviewed. Information was collected through semi-structured interviews, analyzed and compared by quantitative ethno-botanical indices such as Jaccard index (JI), Informant Consensus Factor (ICF), use value (UV) and Relative frequency of citation (RFC).Thorough survey indicated that 57 medicinal plants belongs to 43 families were investigated to treat various illnesses. The highest ICF is recorded for digestive system (0.69%), Circolatory system (0.61%), urinary tract system, (0.53%) and respiratory system (0.52%). Used value indicated that, Achillea mellefolium (UV = 0.68), Aconitum violaceum (UV = 0.69), Valeriana jatamansi (UV = 0.63), Berberis lyceum (UV = 0.65) and are exceedingly medicinal plant species used in the region. In comparison, highest similarity index is recorded in these studies with JI 17.72 followed by 16.41. According to DMR output, Pinus williciana ranked first due to multipurpose uses among all species and was found most threatened with higher market value. Unwise used of natural assets pooled with unsuitable harvesting practices have exaggerated pressure on plant species of the research region. The main issues causative to natural variety loss found were over grazing of animals, forest violation, wild animal hunting, fodder, plant collection as medicine, fuel wood, forest fire, and invasive species negatively affect the natural resources. For viable utilization, in situ and ex situ conservation, skillful collecting, and reforestation project may be the resolution. Further wide field management research is required.

Keywords: quantitative analysis, conservations issues, medicinal flora, alpine and sub-alpine, Hindukush region

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Authors: M. Varin, A. M. Dubois, R. Gadbois-Langevin, B. Chalghaf

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Good knowledge of the physical environment is essential for an integrated forest planning. This information enables better forecasting of operating costs, determination of cutting volumes, and preservation of ecologically sensitive areas. The use of satellite images in stereoscopic pairs gives the capacity to generate high precision 3D models, which are scale-adapted for harvesting operations. These models could represent an alternative to 3D LiDAR data, thanks to their advantageous cost of acquisition. The objective of the study was to assess the quality of stereo-derived canopy height models (CHM) in comparison to a traditional LiDAR CHM and ground tree-height samples. Two study sites harboring two different forest stand types (broadleaf and conifer) were analyzed using stereo pairs and tri-stereo images from the WorldView-3 satellite to calculate CHM. Acquisition of multispectral images from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was also realized on a smaller part of the broadleaf study site. Different algorithms using two softwares (PCI Geomatica and Correlator3D) with various spatial resolutions and band selections were tested to select the 3D modeling technique, which offered the best performance when compared with LiDAR. In the conifer study site, the CHM produced with Corelator3D using only the 50-cm resolution panchromatic band was the one with the smallest Root-mean-square deviation (RMSE: 1.31 m). In the broadleaf study site, the tri-stereo model provided slightly better performance, with an RMSE of 1.2 m. The tri-stereo model was also compared to the UAV, which resulted in an RMSE of 1.3 m. At individual tree level, when ground samples were compared to satellite, lidar, and UAV CHM, RMSE were 2.8, 2.0, and 2.0 m, respectively. Advanced analysis was done for all of these cases, and it has been noted that RMSE is reduced when the canopy cover is higher when shadow and slopes are lower and when clouds are distant from the analyzed site.

Keywords: very high spatial resolution, satellite imagery, WorlView-3, canopy height models, CHM, LiDAR, unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV

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Authors: G. Henini, Y. Laidani, F. Souahi, A. Labbaci, S. Hanini

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Environmental contamination is a major problem being faced by the society today. Industrial, agricultural, and domestic wastes, due to the rapid development in the technology, are discharged in the several receivers. Generally, this discharge is directed to the nearest water sources such as rivers, lakes, and seas. While the rates of development and waste production are not likely to diminish, efforts to control and dispose of wastes are appropriately rising. Wastewaters from textile industries represent a serious problem all over the world. They contain different types of synthetic dyes which are known to be a major source of environmental pollution in terms of both the volume of dye discharged and the effluent composition. From an environmental point of view, the removal of synthetic dyes is of great concern. Among several chemical and physical methods, adsorption is a promising technique due to the ease of use and low cost compared to other applications in the process of discoloration, especially if the adsorbent is inexpensive and readily available. The focus of the present study was to assess the potentiality of Brahea edulis (BE) for the removal of synthetic dye Yellow bemacid (YB) from aqueous solutions. The results obtained here may transfer to other dyes with a similar chemical structure. Biosorption studies were carried out under various parameters such as mass adsorbent particle, pH, contact time, initial dye concentration, and temperature. The biosorption kinetic data of the material (BE) was tested by the pseudo first-order and the pseudo-second-order kinetic models. Thermodynamic parameters including the Gibbs free energy ΔG, enthalpy ΔH, and entropy ΔS have revealed that the adsorption of YB on the BE is feasible, spontaneous, and endothermic. The equilibrium data were analyzed by using Langmuir, Freundlich, Elovich, and Temkin isotherm models. The experimental results show that the percentage of biosorption increases with an increase in the biosorbent mass (0.25 g: 12 mg/g; 1.5 g: 47.44 mg/g). The maximum biosorption occurred at around pH value of 2 for the YB. The equilibrium uptake was increased with an increase in the initial dye concentration in solution (C_o = 120 mg/l; q = 35.97 mg/g). Biosorption kinetic data were properly fitted with the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. The best fit was obtained by the Langmuir model with high correlation coefficient (R² > 0.998) and a maximum monolayer adsorption capacity of 35.97 mg/g for YB.

Keywords: adsorption, Brahea edulis, isotherm, yellow Bemacid

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Authors: Miroslava Markovic, Snezana Rajkovic, Ljubinko Rakonjac, Aleksandar Lucic

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Oak powdery mildew is a serious problem on seedlings in nurseries as well as on naturally and artificially introduced progeny. The experiments were set on oak seedlings in two nurseries located in Central Serbia, where control of oak powdery mildew Microsphaera alphitoides Griff. et Maubl. had been conducted through alternative protection measures by means of various dosages of AQ-10 biofungicide, with and without added polymer (which has so far never been used in this country for control of oak powdery mildew). Simultaneous testing was conducted on the efficiency of a chemical sulphur-based preparation (used in this area for many years as a measure of suppression of powdery mildews, without the possibility of developing resistance of the pathogen to the active matter). To date, the Republic of Serbia has registered no fungicides for suppression of pathogens in the forest ecosystems. In order to introduce proper use of new disease-fighting agents into a country, certain relevant principles, requirements and criteria prescribed by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) must be observed, primarily with respect to measures of assessment and mitigation of risks, the list of dangerous and highly dangerous pesticides with the possibility of alternative protection. One of the main goals of the research was adjustment of the protective measures to the FSC policy through selection of eco-toxicologically favourable fungicides, given the fact that only preparations named on the list of permitted active matters are approved for use in certified forests. The results of the research have demonstrated that AQ-10 biofungicide can be used as a part of integrated disease management programmes as an alternative, through application of several treatments during vegetation and combination with other active matters registered for these purposes, so as to curtail the use of standard fungicides for control of powdery mildews on oak seedlings in nurseries. The best results in suppression of oak powdery mildew were attained through use of AQ-10 biofungicide (dose 50 or 70g/ha) with added polymer Nu Film-17 (dose 1.0 or 1.5 l/ha). If the treatment is applied at the appropriate time, even fewer number of treatments and smaller doses will be just as efficient.

Keywords: oak powdery mildew, biofungicides, polymers, Microsphaera alphitoides

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar

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The largest issue in the current situation is managing solid waste since it pollutes the ecosystem. When considering how to manage waste, even the disposal of mixed waste is a challenge. The Saksham Yuva Project, which is managed by the Haryana government, highlights the consequences and drivers of managing the solid waste of urban areas in the municipal committee pundri in the present study. The overall goal of the Saksham Yuva project is to mobilise the public and educate them about the dangers associated with garbage management. There has been a 20% reduction in waste, according to the study's impacts, and the cost of waste management has also gone down. Further, the study also reported the alternative use of wastes in revenue generation by generating Khaad for agricultural purposes.

Keywords: solid waste management, people awareness, dry and wet waste disposal, material recover facility

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Authors: Pei Yi Lin

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Objective: The objective of this study is to use machine learning methods to build an early prediction classifier model for acute delirium to improve the quality of medical care for intensive care patients. Background: Delirium is a common acute and sudden disturbance of consciousness in critically ill patients. After the occurrence, it is easy to prolong the length of hospital stay and increase medical costs and mortality. In 2021, the incidence of delirium in the intensive care unit of internal medicine was as high as 59.78%, which indirectly prolonged the average length of hospital stay by 8.28 days, and the mortality rate is about 2.22% in the past three years. Therefore, it is expected to build a delirium prediction classifier through big data analysis and machine learning methods to detect delirium early. Method: This study is a retrospective study, using the artificial intelligence big data database to extract the characteristic factors related to delirium in intensive care unit patients and let the machine learn. The study included patients aged over 20 years old who were admitted to the intensive care unit between May 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, excluding GCS assessment <4 points, admission to ICU for less than 24 hours, and CAM-ICU evaluation. The CAMICU delirium assessment results every 8 hours within 30 days of hospitalization are regarded as an event, and the cumulative data from ICU admission to the prediction time point are extracted to predict the possibility of delirium occurring in the next 8 hours, and collect a total of 63,754 research case data, extract 12 feature selections to train the model, including age, sex, average ICU stay hours, visual and auditory abnormalities, RASS assessment score, APACHE-II Score score, number of invasive catheters indwelling, restraint and sedative and hypnotic drugs. Through feature data cleaning, processing and KNN interpolation method supplementation, a total of 54595 research case events were extracted to provide machine learning model analysis, using the research events from May 01 to November 30, 2022, as the model training data, 80% of which is the training set for model training, and 20% for the internal verification of the verification set, and then from December 01 to December 2022 The CU research event on the 31st is an external verification set data, and finally the model inference and performance evaluation are performed, and then the model has trained again by adjusting the model parameters. Results: In this study, XG Boost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree were used to analyze and compare four machine learning models. The average accuracy rate of internal verification was highest in Random Forest (AUC=0.86), and the average accuracy rate of external verification was in Random Forest and XG Boost was the highest, AUC was 0.86, and the average accuracy of cross-validation was the highest in Random Forest (ACC=0.77). Conclusion: Clinically, medical staff usually conduct CAM-ICU assessments at the bedside of critically ill patients in clinical practice, but there is a lack of machine learning classification methods to assist ICU patients in real-time assessment, resulting in the inability to provide more objective and continuous monitoring data to assist Clinical staff can more accurately identify and predict the occurrence of delirium in patients. It is hoped that the development and construction of predictive models through machine learning can predict delirium early and immediately, make clinical decisions at the best time, and cooperate with PADIS delirium care measures to provide individualized non-drug interventional care measures to maintain patient safety, and then Improve the quality of care.

Keywords: critically ill patients, machine learning methods, delirium prediction, classifier model

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Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva

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This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.

Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 130