Search results for: ergonomic risk level

Authors: Selim M. Khan, Dustin D. Pearson, Tryggve Rönnqvist, Markus E. Nielsen, Joshua M. Taron, Aaron A. Goodarzi

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Accumulation of radioactive radon gas in indoor air poses a serious risk to human health by increasing the lifetime risk of lung cancer and is classified by IARC as a category one carcinogen. Radon exposure risks are a function of geologic, geographic, design, and human behavioural variables and can change over time. Using time series and deep machine learning modelling, we analyzed long-term radon test outcomes as a function of building metrics from 25,489 Canadian and 38,596 Swedish residential properties constructed between 1945 to 2020. While Canadian and Swedish properties built between 1970 and 1980 are comparable (96–103 Bq/m³), innate radon risks subsequently diverge, rising in Canada and falling in Sweden such that 21st Century Canadian houses show 467% greater average radon (131 Bq/m³) relative to Swedish equivalents (28 Bq/m³). These trends are consistent across housing types and regions within each country. The introduction of energy efficiency measures within Canadian and Swedish building codes coincided with opposing radon level trajectories in each nation. Deep machine learning modelling predicts that, without intervention, average Canadian residential radon levels will increase to 176 Bq/m³ by 2050, emphasizing the importance and urgency of future building code intervention to achieve systemic radon reduction in Canada.

Keywords: radon health risk, time-series, deep machine learning, lung cancer, Canada, Sweden

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Du Kim, Nelson Baro

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According to a report of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there are approximately 437 nuclear power stations are in operation in the present around the world in order to meet increasing energy demands. Indeed, nearly, a third of the world’s energy demands are met through nuclear power because it is one of the most efficient and long-lasting sources of energy. However, there are also consequences when a major event takes place at a nuclear power station. Over the past years, a few major nuclear accidents have occurred around the world. According to a report of International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES), there are six nuclear accidents that are considered to be high level (risk) of the events: Fukushima Dai-chi (Level 7), Chernobyl (Level 7), Three Mile Island (Level 5), Windscale (Level 5), Kyshtym (Level 6) and Chalk River (Level 5). Today, many people still have doubt about using nuclear power. There is growing number of people who are against nuclear power after the serious accident occurred at the Fukushima Dai-chi nuclear power plant in Japan. In other words, there are public concerns about radiation impacts which emphasize Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) Issues, Radiation Health Effects, Radiation Protection and Social Impacts. This paper will address those keywords by looking back at the history of these major nuclear accidents worldwide, based on INES. This paper concludes that all major mistake from nuclear accidents are preventable due to the fact that most of them are caused by human error. In other words, the human factor has played a huge role in the malfunction and occurrence of most of those events. The correct handle of a crisis is determined, by having a good radiation protection program in place, it’s what has a big impact on society and determines how acceptable people are of nuclear.

Keywords: linear-no-threshold (LNT) issues, radiation health effects, radiation protection, social impacts

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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Authors: Marcelo Jesus Kato Avila, Joao Da Costa Pantoja

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Differential settlement of foundations is a serious pathology in buildings that put at risk lives and property. A common reason for the occurrence of this specific pathology in central Brazil is the presence of collapsible clay, a typical soil in the region. In this study, the foundation of a condemned building erected above this soil is analyzed. The aim is to prevent problems in new constructions, to predict which buildings may be subjected to damages, and to make possible a more precise treatment in less advanced differential settlements observed in the buildings of the vicinity, which includes a hospital, a Military School, an indoor sporting arena, the Police Academy, and the Military Police Headquarters. The methodology consists of visual inspection, photographic report of the main pathologies, analysis of the existing foundations, determination of the soil properties, the study of the cracking level and assessment of structural failure risk of the building. The findings show that the presence of water weaken the soil structure on which the foundation rest, being the main cause of the pathologic settlement, indicating that even in a one store building it was necessary to consider deeper digging, other categories of foundations, and more elaborated and detailed foundation plans when the soil presents this behavior.

Keywords: building cracks, collapsible clay, differential settlement, structural failure risk

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Authors: Aly Kassem, Eman Sapet, Eman Abdelbaset, Hosam Mahmoud

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Objective: Hypertension is an important public health challenge being one of the most common worldwide disease-affecting human. Our aim is to study the clinical characteristics, therapeutic regimens, treatment compliance, and risk factors in a sector of of hypertensive patients at Sohag City. Subject and Methods: A cross sectional study; conducted in Sohag city; it involved 520 patients; males (45.7 %) and females (54.3 %). Their ages ranged between 35-85 years. BP measurements, BMI, blood glucose, Serum creatinine, urine analysis, serum Lipids, blood picture and ECG were done all the studied patients. Results: Hypertension presented more between non-smokers (72.55%), females (54.3%), educated patients (50.99%) and patients with low SES (54.9%). CAD presented in (51.63%) of patients, while laboratory investigations showed hyperglycaemia in (28.7%), anemia in (18.3%), high serum creatinine level in (8.49%) and proteinuria in (10.45%) of patient. Adequate BP control was achieved in (49.67%); older patients had lower adequacy of BP control in spite of the extensive use of multiple-drug therapy. Most hypertensive patients had more than one coexistent CV risk factor. Aging, being a female (54.3%), DM (32.3%), family history of hypertension (28.7%), family history of CAD (25.4%), and obesity (10%) were the common contributing risk factors. ACE-inhibitors were prescribed in (58.16%), Beta-blockers in (34.64%) of the patients. Monotherapy was prescribed for (41.17%) of the patients. (75.81%) of patients had regular use of their drug regimens. (49.67%) only of patients had their condition under control, the number of drugs was inversely related to BP control. Conclusion: Hypertensive patients in Sohag city had a profile of high CV risks, and poor blood pressure control particularly in the elderly. A multidisciplinary approach for routine clinical check-up, follow-up, physicians and patients training, prescribing simple once-daily regimens and encouraging life style modifications are recommended. Anti hypertensives, hypertension, elderly patients, risk factors, treatment compliance.

Keywords: anti hypertensives, hypertension, elderly patients, risk factors, treatment compliance

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Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

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The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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For an operator in a nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. The possibility of human errors may be low, but the risk of them would be unimaginably enormous. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze the influence of any factors which may raise the possibility of human errors. During the past decades, not a few research results showed that performance of human operators may vary over time due to lots of factors. Among them, stress is known to be an indirect factor that may cause human errors and result in mental illness. Until now, not a few assessment tools have been developed to assess stress level of human workers. However, it still is questionable to utilize them for human performance anticipation which is related with human error possibility, because they were mainly developed from the viewpoint of mental health rather than industrial safety. Stress level of a person may go up or down with work time. In that sense, if they would be applicable in the safety aspect, they should be able to assess the variation resulted from work time at least. Therefore, this study aimed to compare their applicability for safety purpose. More than 10 kinds of work stress tools were analyzed with reference to assessment items, assessment and analysis methods, and follow-up measures which are known to close related factors with work stress. The results showed that most tools mainly focused their weights on some common organizational factors such as demands, supports, and relationships, in sequence. Their weights were broadly similar. However, they failed to recommend practical solutions. Instead, they merely advised to set up overall counterplans in PDCA cycle or risk management activities which would be far from practical human error prevention. Thus, it was concluded that application of stress assessment tools mainly developed for mental health seemed to be impractical for safety purpose with respect to human performance anticipation, and that development of a new assessment tools would be inevitable if anyone wants to assess stress level in the aspect of human performance variation and accident prevention. As a consequence, as practical counterplans, this study proposed a new scheme for assessment of work stress level of a human operator that may vary over work time which is closely related with the possibility of human errors.

Keywords: human error, human performance, work stress, assessment tool, time-variant, accident prevention

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Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin

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Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.

Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making

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Authors: Aline M. Dantas, Alexander T. Sack, Elisabeth Bruggen, Peiran Jiao, Teresa Schuhmann

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Risk-taking behavior has been associated with the activity of specific prefrontal regions of the brain, namely the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). While the deactivation of the rDLPFC has been shown to lead to increased risk-taking behavior, the functional relationship between VMPFC activity and risk-taking behavior is yet to be clarified. Correlational evidence suggests that the VMPFC is involved in valuation processes that involve risky choices, but evidence on the functional relationship is lacking. Therefore, this study uses brain stimulation to investigate the role of the VMPFC during risk-taking behavior and replicate the current findings regarding the role of the rDLPFC in this same phenomenon. We used continuous theta-burst stimulation (cTBS) to inhibit either the VMPFC or DLPFC during the execution of the computerized Maastricht Gambling Task (MGT) in a within-subject design with 30 participants. We analyzed the effects of such stimulation on risk-taking behavior, participants’ choices of probabilities and average values, and response time. We hypothesized that, compared to sham stimulation, VMPFC inhibition leads to a reduction in risk-taking behavior by reducing the appeal to higher-value options and, consequently, the attractiveness of riskier options. Right DLPFC (rDLPFC) inhibition, on the other hand, should lead to an increase in risk-taking due to a reduction in cognitive control, confirming existent findings. Stimulation of both the rDLPFC and the VMPFC led to an increase in risk-taking behavior and an increase in the average value chosen after both rDLPFC and VMPFC stimulation compared to sham. No significant effect on chosen probabilities was found. A significant increase in response time was observed exclusively after rDLPFC stimulation. Our results indicate that inhibiting DLPFC and VMPFC separately leads to similar effects, increasing both risk-taking behavior and average value choices, which is likely due to the strong anatomical and functional interconnection of the VMPFC and rDLPFC.

Keywords: decision-making, risk-taking behavior, brain stimulation, TMS

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

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The objective of the present study is to investigate the regional and lobar deposition of size-segregated PM in respiratory tract of human body. PM in different fractions is monitored using the Grimm portable environmental dust monitor during winter season in Firozabad; a Glass city of India. PM10 concentration (200.817g/m³) was 4.46 and 2.0 times higher than the limits prescribed by WHO (45g/m⁻³) and NAAQS (100g/m⁻³) government agencies. PM2.5 concentration (83.538 g/m3) was 5.56 and 1.39 times higher from WHO (15g/m-3) and NAAQS (60g/m⁻³) limits. Results inferred that PM10 and PM2.5 was highest deposited in head region (0.3477-0.5622 & 0.366-0.4704) followed by pulmonary region, especially in the 9-21year old persons. The variation in deposition percentage in our study is mainly due to the airway geometry, PM size, and its deposition mechanisms. The coarse fraction, due to its large size, cannot follow the airway path and mostly gets deposited by inertial impaction in the head region and its bifurcations. The present study results inferred that Coarse and fine PM deposition was highly visualized in 9 (8.45610⁻⁴ g, 2.91110⁻⁴g) year and 3 (1.49610⁻⁴ g, 8.59310⁻⁵g) month age category. So, the 9year children and 3month infants category have high level of health risk.

Keywords: particulate matter, MPPD model, regional deposition, lobar deposition, health risk

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Authors: Hashem A. Alsamadani

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Identifying the level of job satisfaction has many positive benefits for both the worker and employer. The purpose of the study was to examine the overall level of job satisfaction among English as a Foreign Language (EFL) instructors. During the past years, multiple methods were utilized to collect data to determine the level of job satisfaction among teachers. This study was conducted using survey research method. A questionnaire was coded and analyzed using the SPSS. The findings revealed that the overall level of job satisfaction among EFL instructors is high. The study recommended improving conditions of instructors working at public universities so as to gain a high level of job satisfaction and improve outcomes of the teaching-learning process.

Keywords: job satisfaction, EFL teachers, Saudi Arabia, instruction

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Authors: Arej Alhemimah

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This study investigates the influence of tourists’ perceptions of destination image on their intention to use a tourism app. It examines the roles played by tourists’ perceptions of app/website usability, information quality, and risk in shaping tourism destination image and, subsequently, their app use intention. Using an online questionnaire, the study surveyed 194 international tourists in Saudi Arabia. Results were analysed using PLS-SEM. All the proposed hypotheses were supported and significant. Perceived risk had the strongest influence, followed by the influence of tourists’ perceptions of information quality, then app usability. Additionally, perceived risk was found to have a strong effect on the application use intention. The study makes a significant contribution to the tourism website/application literature; its implications provide practical insights and recommendations for destination marketers and managers to improve their online and social media presence in terms of enhancing e-platform usability, quality of provided information, and most importantly, to create a destination strategy to manage tourists’ risk perceptions.

Keywords: destination image, perceived risk, use intention, tourism app, information quality

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Authors: Mohammad Lutfur Rahman

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School students of Dhaka are in extreme risk of natural disasters. However, the study on assessment of the real scenario of high school students about perceptions of earthquake is very little. The purpose of this cross-sectional study is to assess the seismic risk perception and preparedness levels about earthquake among high school students in Shavar, Dhaka. A questionnaire was developed, and data collection was done about a group of high school students in seven classrooms. The author uses a method of surveying high school students to identify and describe the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions about earthquake. This study examines gender and grade differences in perceived risk and communication behavior in response to the earthquake. Female students’ preparation, participation, and communication with family are more frequent than that of male students. Female students have been found to be more likely to learn about a disaster than male students. Higher grade students have more awareness but less preparedness about earthquake than that of the younger one. This research concludes that irrespective of grades, high school students are vulnerable to earthquake due to the lack of a seismic education program.

Keywords: awareness, earthquake, risk perception, seismic

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Gunilla Dahlgren, Per Liv, Fredrik Öhberg, Lisbeth Slunga Järvholm, Mikael Forsman, Börje Rehn

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Background: Accuracy of risk assessment tools in hand-repetitive work is important. This can support precision in the risk management process and for a sustainable working life for women and men equally. Musculoskeletal disorders, MSDs, from the hand, wrist, and forearm, are common in the working population. Women report a higher prevalence of MSDs in these regions. Objective: The objective of this study was to compare if women and men who performed the identical hand-intensive work task were rated equally using the Hand Activity Threshold Limit Value® (HA-TLV) when self-rated and observer-rated. Method: Fifty-six workers from eight companies participated, with various intensities in hand-repetitive work tasks. In total, 18 unique identical hand-intensive work tasks were executed in 28 pairs of a woman and a man. Hand activity and force levels were assessed. Each worker executed the work task for 15 minutes, which was also video recorded. Data was collected on workers who self-rated directly after the execution of the work task. Also, experienced observers performed ratings from videos of the same work tasks. For comparing means between women and men, paired samples t-tests were used. Results: The main results showed that there was no difference in self-ratings of hand activity level and force by women and men who executed the same work task. Further, there was no difference between observer ratings of hand activity level. However, the observer force ratings of women and men differed significantly (p=0.01). Conclusion: Hand activity and force levels are rated equally in women and men when self-rated, also by observers for hand activity. However, it is an observandum that observer force rating is rated higher for women and lower for men. This indicates the need of comparing force ratings with technical measures.

Keywords: gender, equity, sex differences, repetitive strain injury, cumulative trauma disorders, upper extremity, exposure assessment, workload, health risk assessment, observation, psychophysics

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Authors: Sarah Holdren, Laura Crook, Anne Drapkin Lyerly

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Objective: The COVID-19 Pandemic has drawn new attention to long-existing bioethical questions around pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood. Due to the increased risk of severe COVID-19, pregnant individuals may experience anxiety regarding medical decision-making. Especially in the case of hospital births, questions around the ethics of bringing healthy pregnant individuals into a high-risk environment for viral transmission illuminate gaps in the American maternal and child healthcare system. Limited research has sought to understand the experiences of those who gave birth outside hospitals during this time. This study aims to understand pregnant individuals’ conceptualization of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individuals who gave birth after March 2020 were recruited through advertisements on social media. Participants completed a 1-hour semi-structured interview and a demographic questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed and coded by members of the research team using thematic narrative analysis. Results: A total of 18 participants were interviewed and completed the demographic questionnaire. The language of risk was utilized in birth narratives in three different ways, which highlighted the multileveled and nuanced ways in which risk is understood and mitigated by pregnant and birthing individuals. These included: 1. The risk of contracting COVID-19 before, during, and after birth, 2. The risk of birth complications requiring medical interventions dependent on selected birthing space (home, birthing center, hospital), and 3. The overall risk of creating life in the middle of a pandemic. The risk of contracting COVID-19 and risk of birth complications were often weighed in paradoxical ways throughout each individual’s pregnancy, while phrases such as “pandemic baby” and “apocalypse” appeared throughout narratives and highlighted the broader implications of pregnancy and childbirth during this momentous time. Conclusions: Healthcare professionals should consider the variety of ways that pregnant and birthing individuals understand the risk when counseling patients on healthcare decisions, especially during times of healthcare crisis such as COVID-19. Future work should look to understand how the language of risk fits into a broader understanding of the human experience of growing life in times of crisis.

Keywords: maternal and child health, thematic narrative analysis, COVID-19, risk mitigation

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Authors: Md. Rashed Aalm, Md. Nuruzzaman Khan, Yothin Sawangdee

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Background: Around 47% of the total pregnancies are unintended in Bangladesh, which lead to several adverse consequences, including maternal and child mortality. Use of menstrual regulation (MR) can help women to reduce unintended pregnancy related adverse consequences. We explored the prevalence and determinants of MR services among ever-married women in Bangladesh. Methods: Total of 14,346 ever-married women data were analysed from the 2017 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Our study variable was use or non-use of MR services. Individual, household, and community level factors were the explanatory factors. Multilevel mixed-effect Poisson regression model was used to determine the factors associated with MR services in Bangladesh. Results: Nearly 7% of the total women in Bangladesh use MR services. Use of MR services was found higher among women who were aged 20-30 ages (IRR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.17–2.17), who were overweight (IRR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.13–1.81), had at least 1 child (IRR 2.97, 95% CI: 2.34– 3.77) or > 2 children (IRR 3.22, 95% CI: 2.45–4.20), and the birth preceding birth interval was(2 – 4) years (IRR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.13–2.15). Around 1.39 times (95% CI: 1.11–1.73) higher likelihood of MR was found among women whose husbands were engage with business. At the community level, MR service was found lower among the women who resided in the community with higherilliteracy (IRR 0.67, 95% CI: 0.42–0.96) and the Mymensingh division (IRR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.31–0.91). Conclusion: Use of MR service is comparatively low, which indicate a significant proportion of unintended pregnancy continued toward life-birth. This could be responsible for higher adverse maternal and child health outcomes in Bangladesh. Initiatives should be taken to ensure MR services is available when women need this service.

Keywords: menstrual regulation, pattern, risk, maternal health, Bangladesh

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Authors: Omar Amoudi, Latifa Al Brashdi

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Construction projects are always subject to risks and uncertainties due to its unique and dynamic nature, outdoor work environment, the wide range of skills employed, various parties involved in addition to situation of construction business environment at large. Altogether, these risks and uncertainties affect projects objectives and lead to cost overruns, delay, and poor quality. Construction projects in Oman often experience cost overruns and delay. Managing these risks and reducing their impacts on construction cost requires firstly identifying these risks, and then analyzing their severity on project cost to obtain deep understanding about these risks. This in turn will assist construction managers in managing and tacking these risks. This paper aims to investigate the main risk factors that affect construction projects cost in the Sultanate of Oman. In order to achieve the main aim, literature review was carried out to identify the main risk factors affecting construction cost. Thirty-three risk factors were identified from the literature. Then, a questionnaire survey was designed and distributed among construction professionals (i.e., client, contractor and consultant) to obtain their opinion toward the probability of occurrence for each risk factor and its possible impact on construction project cost. The collected data was analyzed based on qualitative aspects and in several ways. The severity of each risk factor was obtained by multiplying the probability occurrence of a risk factor with its impact. The findings of this study reveal that the most significant risk factors that have high severity impact on construction project cost are: Change of Oil Price, Delay of Materials and Equipment Delivery, Changes in Laws and Regulations, Improper Budgeting, and Contingencies, Lack of Skilled Workforce and Personnel, Delays Caused by Contractor, Delays of Owner Payments, Delays Caused by Client, and Funding Risk. The results can be used as a basis for construction managers to make informed decisions and produce risk response procedures and strategies to tackle these risks and reduce their negative impacts on construction project cost.

Keywords: construction cost, construction projects, Oman, risk factors, risk management

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Authors: Emmanuel Carlo Belara, Albert John Dela Merced, Mark Anthony Dominguez, Diomari Erasga, Jerome Ferrer, Bernard Ombrog

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Social distancing errors are a common prevalence between vaccinated and unvaccinated in the Filipino community. This study aims to identify and relate the factors on how they affect our daily lives. Observed factors include memory, attention, anxiety, decision-making, and stress. Upon applying the ergonomic tools and statistical treatment such as t-test and multiple linear regression, stress and attention turned out to have the most impact to the errors of social distancing.

Keywords: vaccinated, unvaccinated, socoal distancing, filipinos

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Authors: Abhijit Trailokya

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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD’s) are the major cause of morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Many clinical trials have demonstrated that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering, reduces the incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events across a broad spectrum of patients at risk. Guidelines for the management of patients at risk have been established in Europe and North America. The guidelines have advocated progressively lower LDL-C targets and more aggressive use of statin therapy. In Indian patients, comprehensive data on dyslipidemia management and its treatment outcomes are inadequate. There is lack of information on existing treatment patterns, the patient’s profile being treated, and factors that determine treatment success or failure in achieving desired goals. Purpose: The present study was planned to determine the lipid control status in high-risk dyslipidemic patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy in India. Methods: This cross-sectional, non-interventional, single visit program was conducted across 483 sites in India where male and female patients with high-risk dyslipidemia aged 18 to 65 years who had visited for a routine health check-up to their respective physician at hospital or a healthcare center. Percentage of high-risk dyslipidemic patients achieving adequate LDL-C level (< 70 mg/dL) on lipid-lowering therapy and the association of lipid parameters with patient characteristics, comorbid conditions, and lipid lowering drugs were analysed. Results: 3089 patients were enrolled in the study; of which 64% were males. LDL-C data was available for 95.2% of the patients; only 7.7% of these patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid-lowering therapy, which may be due to inability to follow therapeutic plans, poor compliance, or inadequate counselling by physician. The physician’s lack of awareness about recent treatment guidelines also might contribute to patients’ poor adherence, not explaining adequately the benefit and risks of a medication, not giving consideration to the patient’s life style and the cost of medication. Statin was the most commonly used anti-dyslipidemic drug across population. The higher proportion of patients had the comorbid condition of CVD and diabetes mellitus across all dyslipidemic patients. Conclusion: As per the European Society of Cardiology guidelines the ideal LDL-C levels in high risk dyslipidemic patients should be less than 70%. In the present study, 7.7% of the patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid lowering therapy which is very less. Most of high risk dyslipidemic patients in India are on suboptimal dosage of statin. So more aggressive and high dosage statin therapy may be required to achieve target LDLC levels in high risk Indian dyslipidemic patients.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, LDL-C, lipid lowering drug, statins

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Authors: El Khaddam Safaa, Soulaymani Abdelmajid, Mokhtari Abdelghani, Ouammi Lahcen, Rachida Soulaymani-Beincheikh

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The poisonings represent a problem of health in the world and Morocco, The exact dimensions of this phenomenon are still poorly recorded that we see the lack of exhaustive statistical data. The objective of this retrospective study of a series of cases of the poisonings declared at the level of the region of Tadla-Azilal and collected by the Moroccan Poison Control and Pharmacovigilance Center. An epidemiological profile of the poisonings was to raise, to determine the risk factors influencing the vital preview of the poisoned And to follow the evolution of the incidence, the lethality, and the mortality. During the period of study, we collected and analyzed 9303 cases of poisonings by different incriminated toxic products with the exception of the scorpion poisonings. These poisonings drove to 99 deaths. The epidemiological profile which we raised, showed that the poisoned were of any age with an average of 24.62±16.61 years, The sex-ratio (woman/man) was 1.36 in favor of the women. The difference between both sexes is highly significant (χ2 = 210.5; p<0,001). Most of the poisoned which declared to be of urban origin (60.5 %) (χ2=210.5; p<0,001). Carbon monoxide was the most incriminated among the cases of poisonings (24.15 %), them putting in head, followed by some pesticides and farm produces (21.44 %) and food (19.95 %). The analysis of the risk factors showed that the grown-up patients whose age is between 20 and 74 years have twice more risk of evolving towards the death (RR=1,57; IC95 % = 1,03-2,38) than the other age brackets, so the male genital organ was the most exposed (explained) to the death that the female genital organ (RR=1,59; IC95 % = 1,07-2,38) The patients of rural origin had presented 5 times more risk (RR=4,713; IC95 % = 2,543-8,742). Poisoned by the mineral products had presented the maximum of risk on the vital preview death (RR=23,19, IC95 % = 2,39-224,1). The poisonings by pesticides produce a risk of 9 (RR=9,31; IC95 % = 6,10-14,18). The incidence was 3,3 cases of 10000 inhabitants, and the mortality was 0,004 cases of 1000 inhabitants (that is 4 cases by 1000 000 inhabitants). The rate of lethality registered annually was 10.6 %. The evolution of the indicators of health according to the years showed that the rate of statement measured by the incidence increased by a significant way. We also noted an improvement in the coverage which (who) ended up with a decrease in the rate of the lethality and the mortality during last years. The fight anti-toxic is a work of length time. He asks for a lot of work various levels. It is necessary to attack the delay accumulated by our country on the various legal, institutional and technical aspects. The ideal solution is to develop and to set up a national strategy.

Keywords: epidemiology, poisoning, risk factors, indicators of health, Tadla-Azilal grated by anti-toxic fight

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Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

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Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: M. Sulieman, H. Arabiyat, H. Ali, K. Potiszil, I. Abbas, R. English, P. King, I. Brown, P. Drew

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Introduction: The incidence of breast ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) has been increasing; it currently represents up 20-25% of all breast carcinomas. Some aspects of DCIS management are still controversial, mainly due to the heterogeneity of its clinical presentation and of its biological and pathological characteristics. In DCIS, histological diagnosis obtained preoperatively, carries the risk of sampling error if the presence of invasive cancer is subsequently diagnosed. The mammographic extent over than 4–5 cm and the presence of architectural distortion, focal asymmetric density or mass on mammography are proven important risk factors of preoperative histological under staging. Intracystic papillary cancer (IPC) is a rare form of breast carcinoma. Despite being previously compared to DCIS it has been shown to present histologically with invasion of the basement membrane and even metastasis. SLNB – Carries the risk of associated comorbidity that should be considered when planning surgery for DCIS and IPC. Objectives: The aim of this Audit was to better define a ‘high risk’ group of patients with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing breast conserving surgery, who would benefit from sentinel node biopsy. Method: Retrospective data collection of all patients with ductal carcinoma in situ over 5 years. 636 patients identified, and after exclusion criteria applied: 394 patients were included. High risk defined as: Extensive micro-calcification >40mm OR any mass forming DCIS. IPC: Winpath search from for the term ‘papillary carcinoma’ in any breast specimen for 5 years duration;.29 patients were included in this group. Results: DCIS: 188 deemed high risk due to >40mm calcification or a mass forming (radiological or palpable) 61% of those had a mastectomy and 32% BCS. Overall, in that high-risk group - the number with invasive disease was 38%. Of those high-risk DCIS pts 85% had a SLN - 80% at the time of surgery and 5% at a second operation. For the BCS patients - 42% had SLN at time of surgery and 13% (8 patients) at a second operation. 15 (7.9%) pts in the high-risk group had a positive SLNB, 11 having a mastectomy and 4 having BCS. IPC: The provisional diagnosis of encysted papillary carcinoma is upgraded to an invasive carcinoma on final histology in around a third of cases. This has may have implications when deciding whether to offer sentinel node removal at the time of therapeutic surgery. Conclusions: We have defined a ‘high risk’ group of pts with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing BCS, who would benefit from SLNB at the time of the surgery. In patients with high-risk features; the risk of invasive disease is up to 40% but the risk of nodal involvement is approximately 8%. The risk of morbidity from SLN is up to about 5% especially the risk of lymphedema.

Keywords: breast ductal carcinoma in Situ (DCIS), intracystic papillary carcinoma (IPC), sentinel node biopsy (SLNB), high-risk, non-invasive, cancer disease

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Authors: Linda Fellag, Arlene Caney

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E-learning has earned an essential place in academia because it promotes learner autonomy, student engagement, and technological aptitude, and allows for flexible learning. However, despite advantages, educators have been slower to embrace e-learning for ESL and other non-traditional students for fear that such students will not succeed without the direct faculty contact and academic support of face-to-face classrooms. This study aims to determine if a non-traditional student-friendly online course can produce student retention and performance rates that compare favorably with those of students in standard online sections of the same course aimed at traditional college-level students. One Music faculty member is currently collaborating with an English instructor to redesign an online college-level Music Appreciation course for non-traditional college students. At Community College of Philadelphia, Introduction to Music Appreciation was recently designated as one of the few college-level courses that advanced ESL, and developmental English students can take while completing their language studies. Beginning in Fall 2017, the course will be critical for international students who must maintain full-time student status under visa requirements. In its current online format, however, Music Appreciation is designed for traditional college students, and faculty who teach these sections have been reluctant to revise the course to address the needs of non-traditional students. Interestingly, presenters maintain that the online platform is the ideal place to develop language and college readiness skills in at-risk students while maintaining the course's curricular integrity. The two faculty presenters describe how curriculum rather than technology drives the redesign of the digitized music course, and self-study materials, guided assignments, and periodic assessments promote independent learning and comprehension of material. The 'scaffolded' modules allow ESL and developmental English students to build on prior knowledge, preview key vocabulary, discuss content, and complete graded tasks that demonstrate comprehension. Activities and assignments, in turn, enhance college success by allowing students to practice academic reading strategies, writing, speaking, and student-faculty and peer-peer communication and collaboration. The course components facilitate a comparison of student performance and retention in sections of the redesigned and existing online sections of Music Appreciation as well as in previous sections with at-risk students. Indirect, qualitative measures include student attitudinal surveys and evaluations. Direct, quantitative measures include withdrawal rates, tests of disciplinary knowledge, and final grades. The study will compare the outcomes of three cohorts in the two versions of the online course: ESL students, at-risk developmental students, and college-level students. These data will also be compared with retention and student outcomes data of the three cohorts in f2f Music Appreciation, which permitted non-traditional student enrollment from 1998-2005. During this eight-year period, the presenter addressed the problems of at-risk students by adding language and college success support, which resulted in strong retention and outcomes. The presenters contend that the redesigned course will produce favorable outcomes among all three cohorts because it contains components which proved successful with at-risk learners in f2f sections of the course. Results of their study will be published in 2019 after the redesigned online course has met for two semesters.

Keywords: college readiness, e-learning, music appreciation, online courses

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