Search results for: calculation of risk factor

Authors: Majid Khan

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Introduction: In this era of microsurgery, free flap holds a remarkable spot in reconstructive surgery. A free flap is well suited for composite defects as it provides sufficient and well-vascularized tissue for coverage. We report our experience with the use of the free flaps for the reconstruction of composite defects. Methods: This is a retrospective case series (chart review) of patients who underwent reconstruction of composite defects with a free flap at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi (Pakistan) from January 01, 2015, to December 31, 2019. Data were collected for patient demographics, size of the defect, size of flap, recipient vessels, postoperative complications, and outcome of the free flap. Results: Over this period, 532 free flaps are included in this study. The overall success rate is 95.5%. The mean age of the patient was 44.86 years. In 532 procedures, there were 448 defects from tumor ablation of head and neck cancer. The most frequent free flap was the anterolateral thigh flap in 232 procedures. In this study, the risk factor hypertension (p=0.004) was found significant for wound dehiscence, preop radiation/chemotherapy (p=0.003), and malnutrition (p=0.005) were found significant for fistula formation. Malnutrition (p=0.02) and use of vein grafts (p=0.025) were significant factors for flap failure. Conclusion: Free tissue transfer is a reliable option for the reconstruction of large and composite defects. Hypertension, malnutrition, and preoperative radiotherapy can cause significant morbidity.

Keywords: free flap, free flap failure, risk factors for flap failure, free flap outcome

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Pahirangan Sivapatham, , Esser Barbara

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The impacts of the asphalt mix design, the properties of aggregates and quality differences in the same type of bitumen, as well as the dosage rate of reclaimed asphalt on the relevant material parameter of the analytical pavement design method are not known. Due to that, in this study, the influence of the above mentioned characteristics on relevant material parameters has been determined and analyzed by means of the analytical pavement calculations method. Therefore, material parameters for several asphalt mixes for asphalt wearing course, asphalt binder course and asphalt base course have been determined. Thereby several bitumens of the same type from different producer’s have been used. In addition, asphalt base course materials with three different dosages of reclaimed asphalt have been produced and tested. As material parameter according to the German analytical pavement design guide(RDO Asphalt), the stiffness’s at different temperatures and fatigue behavior have been determined. The findings of asphalt base course materials produced with several pen graded bitumen from different producers and different dosages of reclaimed asphalt indicate the distinct impact on fatigue behaviors and mechanical properties. The calculated test results of the analytical pavement design method show significant differences in the lifetimes. The pavement design calculation is to carry out by means of the actual material parameter. The calculated lifetime of the asphalt base course materials differentiates by the factor 3.2. The determining test results of bitumen characteristics meet the requirement according to the German Standards. But, further investigations of bitumen in different aging conditions show significant differences in their quality. The fatigue behavior and stiffness of asphalt pavement improves with increasing dosage of reclaimed asphalt. Furthermore, the type of aggregates used shows no significant influences.

Keywords: reclaimed asphalt pavement, quality differences in the bitumen, life time calculation, Asphalt mix with RAP

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: S. Burgalat, L. Teilhac, A. Brand, E. Chastel, M. Jumeline

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The paper presents actual benefits and drawbacks of a multidirectional autonomous hovercraft conceived with limited resources and designed for indoor exploration. Recent developments in the field have led to the apparition of very powerful automotive systems capable of very high calculation and exploration in complex unknown environments. They usually propose very complex algorithms, high precision/cost sensors and sometimes have heavy calculation consumption with complex data fusion. These systems are usually powerful but have a certain price, and the benefits may not be worth the cost, especially considering their hardware limitations and their power consumption. The present approach is to build a compromise between cost, power consumption and results preciseness.

Keywords: hovercraft, indoor exploration, autonomous, multidirectional, wireless control

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Diana Pombo, Maria Loaiza, Mauricio Quijano, Alberto Cadena, Juan Pablo Tello

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In this paper, we present a semi-automatic tool for calculating ejection fraction from an echocardiographic video signal which is derived from a database in DICOM format, of Clinica de la Costa - Barranquilla. Described in this paper are each of the steps and methods used to find the respective calculation that includes acquisition and formation of the test samples, processing and finally the calculation of the parameters to obtain the ejection fraction. Two imaging segmentation methods were compared following a methodological framework that is similar only in the initial stages of processing (process of filtering and image enhancement) and differ in the end when algorithms are implemented (Active Contour and Region Growing Algorithms). The results were compared with the measurements obtained by two different medical specialists in cardiology who calculated the ejection fraction of the study samples using the traditional method, which consists of drawing the region of interest directly from the computer using echocardiography equipment and a simple equation to calculate the desired value. The results showed that if the quality of video samples are good (i.e., after the pre-processing there is evidence of an improvement in the contrast), the values provided by the tool are substantially close to those reported by physicians; also the correlation between physicians does not vary significantly.

Keywords: echocardiography, DICOM, processing, segmentation, EDV, ESV, ejection fraction

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Authors: Park, Yoon Hong, Wang, Jung Kab, Choi Seong-Won, Kim, Hong Kyu

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Itaewon-Ro is a special place where the Seoul Metropolitan city designated as the fist are of tourism, specially with the commercial supremacy that foreigners may like. It is the place that grew with regional specialty. Study on the vitalization factors of commercialist were analyzed on consumer shop choice factor, Physical environment based on commercial supremacy vitalization, Functional side of the road and regional specialty. However, since Itaewon seemed to take great place in the cultural factor, Because of its regional specialty, Research was processed. This study is the analysis on the vitalization of Itaewon commercialist that looked for important factors with AHP analysis on consumers use as commercialist. Based on the field study and preceded study, top three factors were distinguished with physical factor, cultural factor, landscape factor, and thirteen detail contents were found. This study focused on the choice of the consumer and with a consumer-based questionnaire, we analyzed the importance of vitalization factors. Results of the research are shown in the following paragraphs. In the Itaewon commercial market, mostly women in the 20~30s were the main consumers for meeting and hopping. Vitalization category that the consumer thinks it most importantly was 'attraction', 'various businesses', and 'convenience of transportation'. 'Attraction that cannot be seen in other places', Which was chosen as the most important factor was judged that Itaewon holds cultural identity that is shown in the process of development, Instead of showing artificial and physical composition.

Keywords: commercialist, vitalization factor, regional specialty, cultural factor, AHP analysis

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Authors: Aruha Khan, Brynn E. Kankel, Paraskevi Papadopoulou

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In recent years, extensive research upon ‘stress’ has provided insight into its two distinct guises, namely the short–term (fight–or–flight) response versus the long–term (chronic) response. Specifically, the long–term or chronic response is associated with the suppression or dysregulation of immune function. It is also widely noted that the occurrence of cancer is greatly correlated to the suppression of the immune system. It is thus necessary to explore the impact of long–term or chronic stress upon the prevalence and risk of cancer. To what extent can the dysregulation of immune function caused by long–term exposure to stress be controlled or minimized? This study focuses explicitly upon immunosuppression due to its ability to increase disease susceptibility, including cancer itself. Based upon an analysis of the literature relating to the fundamental structure of the immune system alongside the prospective linkage of chronic stress and the development of cancer, immunosuppression may not necessarily correlate directly to the acquisition of cancer—although it remains a contributing factor. A cross-sectional analysis of the survey data from the University of Tennessee Medical Center (UTMC) and Harvard Medical School (HMS) will provide additional supporting evidence (or otherwise) for the hypothesis of the study about whether immunosuppression (caused by the chronic stress response) notably impacts the prevalence of cancer. Finally, a multidimensional framework related to education on chronic stress and its effects is proposed.

Keywords: immune system, immunosuppression, long–term (chronic) stress, risk of cancer

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Authors: Cuneyt Yucelbas, Seral Ozsen, Sule Yucelbas, Gulay Tezel

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Due to the fact that there exist only a small number of complex systems in artificial immune system (AIS) that work out nonlinear problems, nonlinear AIS approaches, among the well-known solution techniques, need to be developed. Gaussian function is usually used as similarity estimation in classification problems and pattern recognition. In this study, diagnosis of breast cancer, the second type of the most widespread cancer in women, was performed with different distance calculation functions that euclidean, gaussian and gaussian-euclidean hybrid function in the clonal selection model of classical AIS on Wisconsin Breast Cancer Dataset (WBCD), which was taken from the University of California, Irvine Machine-Learning Repository. We used 3-fold cross validation method to train and test the dataset. According to the results, the maximum test classification accuracy was reported as 97.35% by using of gaussian-euclidean hybrid function for fold-3. Also, mean of test classification accuracies for all of functions were obtained as 94.78%, 94.45% and 95.31% with use of euclidean, gaussian and gaussian-euclidean, respectively. With these results, gaussian-euclidean hybrid function seems to be a potential distance calculation method, and it may be considered as an alternative distance calculation method for hard nonlinear classification problems.

Keywords: artificial immune system, breast cancer diagnosis, Euclidean function, Gaussian function

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Hannes Koester

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Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Seyed Bahman Ghaderian, Homeira Rashidi, Mahmoud Mapar

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Background and Objective The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is considered the most important public health threat of the 21st century. This syndrome is characterized by a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including increased central abdominal obesity, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein, high blood pressure, increased fasting glucose, and hyperinsulinemia. MetS has been associated with hypogonadism and erectile dysfunction (ED), and MetS may be considered a risk factor for ED. The aim of this study was finding an association between metabolic syndrome and hypogonadism in Khouzestan, Iran. Subjects and Methods: In this study, 60 patients divided into two groups consisted of 30 cases (with metabolic syndrome) and 30 controls. Total and free Serum Testosterone and FBS in all of them were measured. Data was analyzed with SPSS20 program. Results: There was a significant difference between two groups about free Testosterone (P=0.01), FBS (P=0.002) and LH (P=0.03). Conclusion: According to this finding, it is thought the prevalence of hypogonadism in men with metabolic syndrome is more than the general population.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, fasting blood sugar, hypogonadism, testosterone

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Authors: Quang Dung Le, Kentaro Tanaka, Viet Dung Luu, Kotaro Shirai

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Mercury pollutant is great concerns in globe due to its toxicity and biomagnification through the food web. Recently increasing approaches of stable isotope analyses which have applied in food-web structure are enabled to elucidate more insight trophic transfer of pollutants in ecosystems. In this study, the integration of total mercury (Hg) and stable isotopic analyses (δ13C and δ15N) were measured from basal food sources to invertebrates and fishes in order to determine Hg transfer in Setiu lagoon food webs. The average Hg concentrations showed the increasing trend from low to high trophic levels. The result also indicated that potential Hg exposure from inside mangrove could be higher than that from the tidal flat of mangrove creek. Fish Hg concentrations are highly variable, and many factors driving this variability need further examinations. A positive correlation found between Hg concentrations and δ15N values (the trophic magnification factor was 3.02), suggesting Hg biomagnification through the lagoon food web. Almost all Hg concentrations in fishes and mud crabs did not present a risk for human consumption, however, the Hg concentrations of Caranx ignobilis exceed the permitted level could raise a concern of the potential risk for the marine system. Further investigations should be done to elucidate whether trophic relay relates to high Hg concentrations of some fish species in coastal systems.

Keywords: mercury, transfer, stable isotopes, health risk, mangrove, food web

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Mehdi Janbaz

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The global financial crisis and the credit crunch that followed magnified the importance of credit risk management and its crucial role in the stability of all financial sectors and the whole of the system. Many believe that risks faced by the sovereign sector are highly interconnected with banking risks and most likely to trigger and reinforce each other. This study aims to examine (1) the impact of banking and interbank risk factors on the sovereign credit risk of Eurozone, and (2) how the EU Credit Default Swaps spreads dynamics are affected by the Crude Oil price fluctuations. The hypothesizes are tested by employing fitting risk measures and through a four-staged linear modeling approach. The sovereign senior 5-year Credit Default Swap spreads are used as a core measure of the credit risk. The monthly time-series data of the variables used in the study are gathered from the DataStream database for a period of 2008-2019. First, a linear model test the impact of regional macroeconomic and market-based factors (STOXX, VSTOXX, Oil, Sovereign Debt, and Slope) on the CDS spreads dynamics. Second, the bank-specific factors, including LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3-month LIBOR rate and Euro 3-month overnight index swap rates) and Euribor, are added to the most significant factors of the previous model. Third, the global financial factors including EURO to USD Foreign Exchange Volatility, TED spread (the difference between 3-month T-bill and the 3-month LIBOR rate based in US dollars), and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Crude Oil Volatility Index are added to the major significant factors of the first two models. Finally, a model is generated by a combination of the major factor of each variable set in addition to the crisis dummy. The findings show that (1) the explanatory power of LIBOR-OIS on the sovereign CDS spread of Eurozone is very significant, and (2) there is a meaningful adverse co-movement between the Crude Oil price and CDS price of Eurozone. Surprisingly, adding TED spread (the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in US dollars.) to the analysis and beside the LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3M LIBOR and Euro 3M OIS) in third and fourth models has been increased the predicting power of LIBOR-OIS. Based on the results, LIBOR-OIS, Stoxx, TED spread, Slope, Oil price, OVX, FX volatility, and Euribor are the determinants of CDS spreads dynamics in Eurozone. Moreover, the positive impact of the crisis period on the creditworthiness of the Eurozone is meaningful.

Keywords: CDS, crude oil, interbank risk, LIBOR-OIS, OVX, sovereign credit risk, TED

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: R. Bensaada, M. Almansba, M. Ould Ouali, R. Ferhoum, N. E. Hannachi

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The aim of this work is to simulate the ductile fracture of SEN specimens in aluminium alloy. The assessment of fracture toughness is performed with the calculation of Jc (the critical value of J-Integral) through the resistance curves. The study is done using finite element code calculation ABAQUSTM including an elastic plastic with damage model of material’s behaviour. The procedure involves specimens of four different thicknesses and four ligament sizes for every thickness. The material of study is an aluminium alloy 6061-T6 for which the necessary parameters to complete the study are given. We found the same results for the same specimen’s thickness and for different ligament sizes when the fracture criterion is evaluated.

Keywords: j-integral, critical-j, damage, fracture toughness

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Authors: G. Balakrishnan

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Stereo Correspondence plays a major role in estimation of distance of an object from the stereo camera pair for various applications. In this paper, a stereo correspondence algorithm based on block-matching technique is presented. Initially, an energy matrix is calculated for every disparity obtained using modified Sum of Absolute Difference (SAD). Higher energy matrix errors are removed by using threshold value in order to reduce the mismatch errors. A smoothening filter is applied to eliminate unreliable disparity estimate across the object boundaries. The purpose is to improve the reliability of calculation of disparity map. The experimental results obtained shows that the final depth map produce better results and can be used to all the applications using stereo cameras.

Keywords: stereo matching, filters, energy matrix, disparity

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim

Abstract:

Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.

Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk

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Authors: G. S. Walia, H. P. Singh, D. Padma

Abstract:

The integration of wide variety of communication services is made possible with invention of 3G technology. Code Division Multiple Access 2000 operates on various RF channel bandwidths 1.2288 or 3.6864 Mcps (1x or 3x systems). It is a 3G system which offers high bandwidth and wireless broadband services but its efficiency is lowered due to various factors like fading, interference, scattering, absorption etc. This paper investigates the effect of diversity (MRC), roll off factor in Root Raised Cosine (RRC) filter for the BPSK and QPSK modulation schemes. It is possible to transmit data with minimum Inter symbol Interference and within limited bandwidth with proper pulse shaping technique. Bit error rate (BER) performance is analyzed by applying diversity technique by varying the roll off factor for BPSK and QPSK. Roll off factor reduces the ISI and diversity reduces the Fading.

Keywords: CDMA2000, root raised cosine, roll-off factor, ISI, diversity, interference, fading

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Junji Kaneko, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Siti Ruhana Omar, Oke Oktavianty

Abstract:

This study is used as a definition method to the value and function in manufacturing sector. In concurrence of discussion about present condition of modeling method, until now definition of 1D-CAE is ambiguity and not conceptual. Across all the physics fields, those methods are defined with the formulation of differential algebraic equation which only applied time derivation and simulation. At the same time, we propose semi-acausal modeling concept and differential algebraic equation method as a newly modeling method which the efficiency has been verified through the comparison of numerical analysis result between the semi-acausal modeling calculation and FEM theory calculation.

Keywords: system model, physical models, empirical models, conservation law, differential algebraic equation, object-oriented

Procedia PDF Downloads 470

Authors: Lejla Sunagic

Abstract:

The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Michel A. Thomet

Abstract:

A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

Procedia PDF Downloads 202