Search results for: statistics and probability

Authors: Davod Ahmadi, Narges Ebadi, Ethan Wang, Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez

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Compared to the other Least Developed Countries (LDCs), major countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have limited access to the clean water. People in this region, and more specifically females, suffer from acute water scarcity problems. They are compelled to spend too much of their time bringing water for domestic use like drinking and washing. Apart from domestic use, water through affecting agriculture and livestock contributes to the food security status of people in vulnerable regions like SSA. Livestock needs water to grow, and agriculture requires enormous quantities of water for irrigation. The main objective of this study is to explore the association between access to water and individuals’ food security status. Data from 2017 Gallup World Poll (GWP) for SSA were analyzed (n=35,000). The target population in GWP is the entire civilian, non-institutionalized, aged 15 and older population. All samples selection is probability based and nationally representative. The Gallup surveys an average of 1,000 samples of individuals per country. Three questions related to water (i.e., water quality, availability of water for crops and availability of water for livestock) were used as the exposure variables. Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) was used as the outcome variable. FIES measures individuals’ food security status, and it is composed of eight questions with simple dichotomous responses (1=Yes and 0=No). Different statistical analyses such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression, form the basis of this study. Results from descriptive analyses showed that more than 50% of the respondents had no access to enough water for crops and livestock. More than 85% of respondents were categorized as “food insecure”. Findings from cross-tabulation analyses showed that food security status was significantly associated with water quality (0.135; P=0.000), water for crops (0.106; P=0.000) and water for livestock (0.112; P=0.000). In regression analyses, the probability of being food insecure increased among people who expressed no satisfaction with water quality (OR=1.884 (OR=1.768-2.008)), not enough water for crops (OR=1.721 (1.616-1.834)) and not enough water for livestock (OR=1.706 (1.819)). In conclusion, it should note that water access affects food security status in SSA.

Keywords: water access, agriculture, livestock, FIES

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Aqeela Mir, Akhtar Nawaz Malik, Javaid Iqbal

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The paper presents a survey based approach in order to observe the level of awareness regarding Mechatronics in society of Pakistan and the factors affecting the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan. With the help of these surveys a new direction for making a Mathematical model for the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan is also suggested.

Keywords: mechatronics society survey, future development trend of mechatronics in pakistan, probability estimation, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Dheyaa W. Abbood, Rafa H. AL-Suhaili, May S. Saleh

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A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs length sand their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy.The optimization carried out subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure against the uplift pressure force and sufficient protection length at the downstream side of the structure to overcome an excessive exit gradient. The Geo-studios oft ware, was used to analyze 1200 different cases. For each case the length of protection and volume of structure required to satisfy the safety factors mentioned previously were estimated. An ANN model was developed and verified using these cases input-output sets as its data base. A MatLAB code was written to perform a genetic algorithm optimization modeling coupled with this ANN model using a formulated optimization model. A sensitivity analysis was done for selecting the cross-over probability, the mutation probability and level ,the number of population, the position of the crossover and the weights distribution for all the terms of the objective function. Results indicate that the most factor that affects the optimum solution is the number of population required. The minimum value that gives stable global optimum solution of this parameters is (30000) while other variables have little effect on the optimum solution.

Keywords: inclined cutoff, optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks, geo-studio, uplift pressure, exit gradient, factor of safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Khin Mar Yee, Mu Mu Than, Kyi Lint, Aye Aye Oo, Chan Mya Hmway, Khin Zar Chi Winn

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The dynamic changes of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in Yangon have generally resulted the improvement of human welfare and economic development since the last twenty years. Making map of LULC is crucially important for the sustainable development of the environment. However, the exactly data on how environmental factors influence the LULC situation at the various scales because the nature of the natural environment is naturally composed of non-homogeneous surface features, so the features in the satellite data also have the mixed pixels. The main objective of this study is to the calculation of accuracy based on change detection of LULC changes by Support Vector Machines (SVMs). For this research work, the main data was satellite images of 1996, 2006 and 2015. Computing change detection statistics use change detection statistics to compile a detailed tabulation of changes between two classification images and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) process was applied with a soft approach at allocation as well as at a testing stage and to higher accuracy. The results of this paper showed that vegetation and cultivated area were decreased (average total 29 % from 1996 to 2015) because of conversion to the replacing over double of the built up area (average total 30 % from 1996 to 2015). The error matrix and confidence limits led to the validation of the result for LULC mapping.

Keywords: land use and land cover change, change detection, image processing, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Kamaljit Pati, Manas Kumar Mohanty, Sanjib Sadhu

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A heuristic has been designed to generate a random simple monotone polygon from a given set of ‘n’ points lying on a 2-Dimensional plane. Our heuristic generates a random monotone polygon in O(n) time after O(nℓogn) preprocessing time which is improved over the previous work where a random monotone polygon is produced in the same O(n) time but the preprocessing time is O(k) for n < k < n2. However, our heuristic does not generate all possible random polygons with uniform probability. The space complexity of our proposed heuristic is O(n).

Keywords: sorting, monotone polygon, visibility, chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Sadaf Moeez, Madiha Khalid, Zoya Khalid, Sania Shaheen, Sumbul Khalid

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Background: Inter-individual variation in response to metformin, which has been considered as a first line therapy for T2DM treatment is considerable. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the impact of two genetic variants Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) in gene SLC47A1 on the clinical efficacy of metformin in T2DM Pakistani patients. Methods: The study included 800 T2DM patients (400 metformin responders and 400 metformin non-responders) along with 400 ethnically matched healthy individuals. The genotypes were determined by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. In-silico analysis was done to confirm the effect of the two SNPs on the structure of genes. Association was statistically determined using SPSS software. Results: Minor allele frequency for rs77474263 and rs77630697 was 0.13 and 0.12. For SLC47A1 rs77474263 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘T’ (CT) of rs77474263 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (29.2% vs. 35.5 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (7.2% vs. 4.0 %) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘T’ allele (TT). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘C’ (CC) had 2.11 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. For SLC47A1 rs77630697 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘A’ (GA) of rs77630697 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (33.5% vs. 43.0 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (8.5% vs. 4.5%) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘A’ allele (AA). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘G’ (GG) had 2.41 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. In-silico analysis revealed that these two variants affect the structure and stability of their corresponding proteins. Conclusion: The present data suggest that SLC47A1 Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) polymorphisms were associated with the therapeutic response of metformin in T2DM patients of Pakistan.

Keywords: diabetes, T2DM, SLC47A1, Pakistan, polymorphism

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: R. Henry, J-B. Paulin, St. Fauchille, Ph. Delord, K. Benkirane, A. Brunel

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In this paper, the CVA computation of interest rate swap is presented based on its rating. Rating and probability default given by Moody’s Investors Service are used to calculate our CVA for a specific swap with different maturities. With this computation, the influence of rating variation can be shown on CVA. The application is made to the analysis of Greek CDS variation during the period of Greek crisis between 2008 and 2011. The main point is the determination of correlation between the fluctuation of Greek CDS cumulative value and the variation of swap CVA due to change of rating

Keywords: CDS, computation, CVA, Greek crisis, interest rate swap, maturity, rating, swap

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Zhijie Li, Wenhui Peng, Zelong Yuan, Jianchun Wang

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Turbulence is a complex phenomenon that plays a crucial role in various fields, such as engineering, atmospheric science, and fluid dynamics. Predicting and understanding its behavior over long time scales have been challenging tasks. Traditional methods, such as large-eddy simulation (LES), have provided valuable insights but are computationally expensive. In the past few years, machine learning methods have experienced rapid development, leading to significant improvements in computational speed. However, ensuring stable and accurate long-term predictions remains a challenging task for these methods. In this study, we introduce the implicit U-net enhanced Fourier neural operator (IU-FNO) as a solution for stable and efficient long-term predictions of the nonlinear dynamics in three-dimensional (3D) turbulence. The IU-FNO model combines implicit re-current Fourier layers to deepen the network and incorporates the U-Net architecture to accurately capture small-scale flow structures. We evaluate the performance of the IU-FNO model through extensive large-eddy simulations of three types of 3D turbulence: forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT), temporally evolving turbulent mixing layer, and decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The results demonstrate that the IU-FNO model outperforms other FNO-based models, including vanilla FNO, implicit FNO (IFNO), and U-net enhanced FNO (U-FNO), as well as the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), in predicting various turbulence statistics. Specifically, the IU-FNO model exhibits improved accuracy in predicting the velocity spectrum, probability density functions (PDFs) of vorticity and velocity increments, and instantaneous spatial structures of the flow field. Furthermore, the IU-FNO model addresses the stability issues encountered in long-term predictions, which were limitations of previous FNO models. In addition to its superior performance, the IU-FNO model offers faster computational speed compared to traditional large-eddy simulations using the DSM model. It also demonstrates generalization capabilities to higher Taylor-Reynolds numbers and unseen flow regimes, such as decaying turbulence. Overall, the IU-FNO model presents a promising approach for long-term dynamics prediction in 3D turbulence, providing improved accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.

Keywords: data-driven, Fourier neural operator, large eddy simulation, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Abhinav Pandey

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Teleportation is the transfer of information between two particles without physically being in contact with each other. It has been around in Quantum computation and has been used in theoretical physics. Using the Entangled pair we can achieve teleportation up to 100% out of probable measurements. We introduce a 5-qubit general entanglement system using W-BELL and BELL-GHZ channel pairs and show its usefulness in teleportation. In this paper, we use these channels to achieve teleportation probabilistically conventionally through nonteleporting channels, which has never been achieved before. In this paper, we compare and determine which channel is better in terms of probabilistic results of teleportation of single qubits using W-Bell and Bell-GHZ channels.

Keywords: entanglement, teleportation, no cloning theorem, quantum mechanics, probability

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Authors: Moses Mwangi, Geert Verbeke, Geert Molenberghs

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Cross-over designs are commonly used in randomized clinical trials to estimate efficacy of a new treatment with respect to a reference treatment (placebo or standard). The main advantage of using cross-over design over conventional parallel design is its flexibility, where every subject become its own control, thereby reducing confounding effect. Jones & Kenward, discuss in detail more recent developments in the analysis of cross-over trials. We revisit the simple piecewise linear mixed-effects model, proposed by Mwangi et. al, (in press) for its first application in the analysis of cross-over trials. We compared performance of the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model with two commonly cited statistical models namely, (1) Grizzle model; and (2) Jones & Kenward model, used in estimation of the treatment effect, in the analysis of randomized cross-over trial. We estimate two performance measurements (mean square error (MSE) and coverage probability) for the three methods, using data simulated from the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model. Piecewise linear mixed-effects model yielded lowest MSE estimates compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small (Nobs=20) and large (Nobs=600) sample sizes. It’s coverage probability were highest compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small and large sample sizes. A piecewise linear mixed-effects model is a better estimator of treatment effect than its two competing estimators (Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models) in the analysis of cross-over trials. The data generating mechanism used in this paper captures two time periods for a simple 2-Treatments x 2-Periods cross-over design. Its application is extendible to more complex cross-over designs with multiple treatments and periods. In addition, it is important to note that, even for single response models, adding more random effects increases the complexity of the model and thus may be difficult or impossible to fit in some cases.

Keywords: Evaluation, Grizzle model, Jones & Kenward model, Performance measures, Simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Lu Zhao, Yanrong Kang, Lili Guo, Yuan Long, Guidong Xing

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Smart watches, as a handy device with rich functionality, has become one of the most popular wearable devices all over the world. Among the various function, the most basic is health monitoring. The monitoring data can be provided as an effective evidence or a clue for the detection of crime cases. For instance, the step counting data can help to determine whether the watch wearer was quiet or moving during the given time period. There is, however, still quite few research on the analysis of human character based on these data. The purpose of this research is to analyze the health monitoring data to distinguish the drinking state from normal state. The analysis result may play a role in cases involving drinking, such as drunk driving. The experiment mainly focused on finding the figures of smart watch health monitoring data that change with drinking and figuring up the change scope. The chosen subjects are mostly in their 20s, each of whom had been wearing the same smart watch for a week. Each subject drank for several times during the week, and noted down the begin and end time point of the drinking. The researcher, then, extracted and analyzed the health monitoring data from the watch. According to the descriptive statistics analysis, it can be found that the heart rate change when drinking. The average heart rate is about 10% higher than normal, the coefficient of variation is less than about 30% of the normal state. Though more research is needed to be carried out, this experiment and analysis provide a thought of the application of the data from smart watches.

Keywords: character analysis, descriptive statistics analysis, drink state, heart rate, smart watch

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Nino Damenia

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The paper discusses the risks arising in agriculture in Georgia, the possibilities of their acceptance and prevention, the threat created by the pandemic crisis, and the state programs for overcoming them. The share of agriculture in the country's GDP is 8.3%. Over the past five years, Georgia has imported $ 5.9 billion worth of agri-food products. Despite these figures, agriculture has become an important sector for the Georgian government since 2012, as evidenced by the more than 1.5 billion GEL spent from the 2012-2020 budget for agricultural development. Any field of agriculture, be it poultry, livestock, cereals, fruits, or vegetables, is very sensitive to various climatic and viral risks. Avoiding these risks requires additional investment. It is noteworthy that small farms are mainly affected by the risks, while relatively large farms face fewer problems because they are relatively prepared to face the problems and can avoid them more easily. An example of viral risk in the article is the export of hazelnuts, which has quite a lot of potential. Due to the spoilage of the crop caused by Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), hazelnut exports have declined considerably over the years. If the volume of hazelnuts exported in 2016 was 179 378 thousand USD, due to the deficit caused by Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) in 2018, it became 57 124 thousand USD. And after the situation was relatively settled, hazelnut seedlings were poisoned. By 2020, this figure improved to 91,088 thousand US dollars. The development of the agricultural sector and the reduction of risks require technological development, investor interest, and even more state support to enable more small farms to have the potential for greater production and sustainable development. The aim of the study is to identify the risks arising in the agricultural sector of Georgia before and after the pandemic, to evaluate them, compare them with the agriculture of some European countries, and to develop the necessary recommendations to avoid the emerging risks. The research uses methods of analysis and synthesis, observation, induction, deduction, and analysis of statistics. The paper is based on both Georgian and foreign scientific research, as well as state-published documentation on agricultural assistance programs. The research is based on the analysis of data published by the European Statistics Office, the National Statistics Office of Georgia, and many other organizations. The results of the study and the recommendations will help reduce the risks in agriculture in Georgia and, in general, to identify the existing potential and the development of the sector as a whole.

Keywords: risk, agriculture, pandemi, brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB)

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Sayan Munshi, Subrajit Banerjee, Indrani Chakraborty

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Tourism is a prime sector in the economic development of many countries in particular the Indian sub-continent. Tourism is considered an integral pillar in the Make in India Program under the Government of India. The statistics of tourism in India had evolved from a past with the formation of History. The sector had shown dynamic changes in the statistics since 1980. With the evolving tourism along with destinations, this sector has been converted into the prime industry, as it not only impacts the destination but on the other hand supports the periphery of the destination. Tourism boost revenue and creates varied economic possibilities for the residents. Due to the influx of tourism in the cities, a load on the infrastructure and services can be observed, specifically in the Physical Infrastructure sectors. Due to the floating population in the designated tourism core of the Urban / Peri-Urban area, issues pertaining to Solid waste management and Transportation are highly observed. Thus, a need for capacity building arises for the infrastructure impacted by tourism, which may result in the upgradation of the lifestyle of the city and its permanent users. As tourism of a region has a dependency on the infrastructure, the paper here focuses on the relationship between tourism potential of a region and the infrastructural determinants of the city or region and hence to derive a structural equation supporting the relationship, further determine a coefficient and suggest the domain of in need of upgradation or retrofitting possibilities. The outcome of the paper is to suggest possible recommendations towards the formation of policies on an urban level to support the tourism potential of the region.

Keywords: urban planning, tourism planning, infrastructure, transportation, solid waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: O. B. Oriolowo, O. J. John

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Empirical findings have shown insects to be nutritious and good source of food for man. However, human food preferences are not only determined by nutritional values of food consumed but, more importantly, by sociology and economic pressure. This study examined the interrelation between science and sociology in sustaining the acceptance of entomophagy among college students to combat food insecurity. A twenty items five Likert scale, College Students Entomophagy Questionnaire (CSEQ), was used to elucidate information from the respondents. The reliability coefficient was obtained to be 0.91 using Spearman-Brown Prophecy formula. Three research questions and three hypotheses were raised. Also, quantitative nutritional analysis of few insects and some established conventional protein sources were undertaking in order to compare their nutritional status. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics of percentages and inferential statistics of correlation and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The results obtained showed that entomophagy has cultural heritage among different tribes in Nigeria and is an acceptable practice; it cuts across every social stratum and is practiced among both major religions. Moreover, insects compared favourably in term of nutrient contents when compared with the conventional animal protein sources analyzed. However, there is a gradual decline in the practice of entomophagy among students, which may be attributed to the influence of western civilization. This study, therefore, recommended an intensification of research and enlightenment of people on the usefulness of entomophagy so as to preserve its cultural heritage as well as boost human food security.

Keywords: entomophagy, food security, malnutrition, poverty alleviation, sociology

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

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Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

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In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique, author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 488

Authors: Thapa M., J.P. Dutta, K.R. Pandey, R.R. Kattel

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Nepal is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. To mitigate the climate change effects on agricultural production and productivity a range of adaptive strategies needs to be considered. The study was conducted to assess organic paddy production as a coping strategy to the adverse impact of climate change in Phulbari, VDC of Chitwan district. Altogether, 120 respondents (60 adopters of organic farming and 60 from non adopter) were selected using snowball technique of sampling. Pre- tested interview schedule, direct observation, focus group discussion, key informant interview as well as secondary data were used to collect the required information. Factors determining the adoption of organic farming were found to be age, year of schooling, training, frequency of extension contact, perception about climate change, economically active members and poor. A unit increase in these factors except poor would increase the probability of adoption by 4.1%, 7.5%, 7.8%, 43.1%, 41.8% and 7% respectively. However, for poor, it would decrease the probability of adoption of organic farming by 5.1%. Average organic matter content in the adopters' field was higher (2.7%) than the non-adopters' field (2.5%). The regression result showed that type of farmer, price and area under rice cultivation had positive and significant relationship with income; however dependency ratio had negative relationship. As the year of adoption of organic farming increases, the production of rice decline in the first two years then after goes on increasing but the cost of production goes on decreasing with the year of adoption. The respondents adapted to the changing climate through diversification of crops, use of resistance varieties and following good cropping pattern. Gradually growing consumers' awareness about health, preference towards quality food products are the strong points behind organic farming, whereas lacks of bio-fertilizers, lack of effective extension services, no price differentiation between organic and inorganic products were the weak points. There is need for more training and education to change the attitude of farmers and enhance their confidence about the role of organic farming to cope with climate change impact.

Keywords: Organic farming, climate change, sustainable development

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Authors: Omar Amoudi, Latifa Al Brashdi

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Construction projects are always subject to risks and uncertainties due to its unique and dynamic nature, outdoor work environment, the wide range of skills employed, various parties involved in addition to situation of construction business environment at large. Altogether, these risks and uncertainties affect projects objectives and lead to cost overruns, delay, and poor quality. Construction projects in Oman often experience cost overruns and delay. Managing these risks and reducing their impacts on construction cost requires firstly identifying these risks, and then analyzing their severity on project cost to obtain deep understanding about these risks. This in turn will assist construction managers in managing and tacking these risks. This paper aims to investigate the main risk factors that affect construction projects cost in the Sultanate of Oman. In order to achieve the main aim, literature review was carried out to identify the main risk factors affecting construction cost. Thirty-three risk factors were identified from the literature. Then, a questionnaire survey was designed and distributed among construction professionals (i.e., client, contractor and consultant) to obtain their opinion toward the probability of occurrence for each risk factor and its possible impact on construction project cost. The collected data was analyzed based on qualitative aspects and in several ways. The severity of each risk factor was obtained by multiplying the probability occurrence of a risk factor with its impact. The findings of this study reveal that the most significant risk factors that have high severity impact on construction project cost are: Change of Oil Price, Delay of Materials and Equipment Delivery, Changes in Laws and Regulations, Improper Budgeting, and Contingencies, Lack of Skilled Workforce and Personnel, Delays Caused by Contractor, Delays of Owner Payments, Delays Caused by Client, and Funding Risk. The results can be used as a basis for construction managers to make informed decisions and produce risk response procedures and strategies to tackle these risks and reduce their negative impacts on construction project cost.

Keywords: construction cost, construction projects, Oman, risk factors, risk management

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Authors: Linda Smail, Zineb Azouz

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Given a Bayesian network relative to a set I of discrete random variables, we are interested in computing the probability distribution P(S) where S is a subset of I. The general idea is to write the expression of P(S) in the form of a product of factors where each factor is easy to compute. More importantly, it will be very useful to give an interpretation of each of the factors in terms of conditional probabilities. This paper considers a semantic interpretation of the factors involved in computing marginal probabilities in Bayesian networks. Establishing such a semantic interpretations is indeed interesting and relevant in the case of large Bayesian networks.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, D-Separation, level two Bayesian networks, factorization of computation

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Authors: Itsaree Padphai, Jiranan Pakpeian, Suksun Niponchai

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This study is a descriptive research which aims to: 1) Compare the difference of knowledge before and after using the e-Learning program entitled “Basic Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation for Students in an Emergency Medical Technician Diploma Program”, and 2) Assess the students’ satisfaction after using the said program. This research is a kind of teaching and learning management supplemented with the e-Learning system; therefore, the purposively selected samples are 44 first-year and class-16 students of an emergency medical technician diploma program who attend the class in a second semester of academic year 2012 in Sirindhorn College of Public Health, Khon Kaen province. The research tools include 1) the questionnaire for general information of the respondents, 2) the knowledge tests before and after using the e-Learning program, and 3) an assessment of satisfaction in using the e-Learning program. The statistics used in data analysis percentage, include mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics: paired t-test. 1. The general information of the respondents was mostly 37 females representing 84.09 percent. The average age was 19.5 years (standard deviation was 0.81), the maximum age was 21 years, and the minimum age was 19 years respectively. Students (35 subjects) admitted that they preferred the methods of teaching and learning by using the e-Learning systems. This was totally 79.95 percent. 2. A comparison on the difference of knowledge before and after using the e-Learning program showed that the mean before an application was 6.64 (standard deviation was 1.94) and after was 18.84 (standard deviation 1.03), which was higher than the knowledge of students before using the e-Learning program with the statistical significance (P value < 0.001). 3. For the satisfaction after using the e-Learning program, it was found that students’ satisfaction was at a very good level with the mean of 4.93 (standard deviation was 0.11).

Keywords: e-Learning, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, diploma program, Khon Kaen Province

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Authors: Myonghwa Park, Eun Jeong Choi

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Persons with dementia living at home have complex caregiving demands, which can be significant sources of stress for the family caregivers. Thus, the dementia family support program facilitators struggle to provide various health and social services, facing diverse challenges. The purpose of this study was to research the effects of training program for the dementia family support program facilitators on self-efficacy, competence, and target complaints concerning operating their program. We created a training program with systematic contents, which was composed of 10 sessions and we provided the program for the facilitators. The participants were 32 people at 28 community dementia support centers who manage dementia family support programs and they completed quantitative and qualitative self-report questionnaire before and after participating in the training program. For analyzing the data, descriptive statistics were used and with a paired t-test, pretest and posttest scores of self-efficacy, competence, and target complaints were analyzed. We used Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) statistics (Version 21) to analyze the data. The average age of the participants was 39.6 years old and the 84.4% of participants were nurses. There were statistically meaningful increases in facilitators’ self-efficacy scores (t = -4.45, p < .001) and competence scores (t = -2.133, p = 0.041) after participating in training program and operating their own dementia family support program. Also, the facilitators’ difficulties in conducting their dementia family support program were decreased which was assessed with target complaints. Especially, the facilitators’ lack of dementia expertise and experience was decreased statistically significantly (t = 3.520, p = 0.002). Findings provided evidence of the benefits of the training program for facilitators to enhance managing dementia family support program by improving the facilitators’ self-efficacy and competence and decreasing their difficulties regarding operating their program.

Keywords: competence, dementia, facilitator, family, self-efficacy, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Bouchemha Amel, Chachoui Takieddine, H. Maalem

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Automatic detection of targets in a modern communication system RADAR is based primarily on the concept of adaptive CFAR detector. To have an effective detection, we must minimize the influence of disturbances due to the clutter. The detection algorithm adapts the CFAR detection threshold which is proportional to the average power of the clutter, maintaining a constant probability of false alarm. In this article, we analyze the performance of two variants of adaptive algorithms CA-CFAR and OS-CFAR and we compare the thresholds of these detectors in the marine environment (no-Gaussian) with a Weibull distribution.

Keywords: CFAR, threshold, clutter, distribution, Weibull, detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 566

Authors: Vernie C. Convicto, Henry P. Aringa, Wilson I. Barredo

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This study presents a conformational model of the helical structures of globular protein particularly ferritin in the framework of white noise path integral formulation by using Associated Legendre functions, Bessel and convolution of Bessel and trigonometric functions as modulating functions. The model incorporates chirality features of proteins and their helix-turn-helix sequence structural motif.

Keywords: globular protein, modulating function, white noise, winding probability

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Authors: Ian Christopher Rocha

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This study aimed to determine the association of the quality of life (QOL) of the caregivers of children in need of special protection (CNSP) in child-caring institutions in Metro Manila with the levels of their role overload (RO) and role distress (RD). The CNSP in this study covered the orphaned, abandoned, abused, neglected, exploited, and mentally-challenged children. In this study, the domains of QOL included physical health (PH), psychological health, social health (SH), and living conditions (LC). It also intended to ascertain the association of their personal and work-related characteristics with their RO and RD levels. The respondents of this study were 130 CNSP caregivers in 17 residential child-rearing institutions in Metro Manila. A purposive non-probability sampling was used. Using a quantitative methodological approach, the survey method was utilized to gather data with the use of a self-administered structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Results revealed that the level of RO, the level of RD, and the QOL of the CNSP caregivers were all moderate. Data also suggested that there were significant positive relationships between the RO level and the caregivers’ characteristics, such as age, the number of training, and years of service in the institution. At the same time, the findings revealed that there were significant positive relationships between the RD level and the caregivers’ characteristics, such as age and hours of care rendered to their care recipients. In addition, the findings suggested that all domains of their QOL obtained significant relationships with their RO level. For the correlations of their level of RO and their QOL domains, the PH and the LC obtained a moderate negative correlation with the RO level while the rest of the domains obtained weak negative correlations with RO level. For the correlations of their level of RD and the QOL domains, all domains, except SH, obtained strong negative correlations with the level of RD. The SH revealed to have a moderate negative correlation with RD level. In conclusion, caregivers who are older experience higher levels of RO and RD; caregivers who have more training and years of service experience the higher level of RO; and caregivers who have longer hours of rendered care experience the higher level of RD. In addition, the study affirmed that if the levels of RO and RD are high, the QOL is low, and vice versa. Therefore, the RO and RD levels are reliable predictors of the caregivers’ QOL. In relation, the caregiving situation in the Philippines revealed to be unique and distinct from other countries because the levels of RO and RD and the QOL of Filipino CNSP caregivers were all moderate in contrast with their foreign counterparts who experience high caregiving RO and RD leading to low QOL.

Keywords: quality of life, caregivers, children in need of special protection, physical health, psychological health, social health, living conditions, role overload, role distress

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu, E. A. Okebanjo

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Children in today’s world need attention and care even with their physique as obesity is also at the increased. Several factors can be responsible for obesity in children and adequate attention is paramount in other not to accommodate it into adolescent period. This study investigated perceived determinants of obesity among primary school pupils in Eti Osa Local Government area of Lagos State. Descriptive survey research design was used and population was all obese pupils in Eti Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State. 92 pupils were selected from randomly picked 12 primary schools while purposive sampling technique was used to pick primary 4-6 pupils. With the aid of body mass index (BMI) and age percentile chart the obese pupils were selected. The instrument for the study was a self-developed and structured questionnaire on perceived determinant of obesity. The questionnaire was divided into three sections. The Cronbach’s Alpha reliability coefficient of 0.74 was obtained. The hypotheses were tested at 0.05 significant levels. The completed questionnaire was collated coded and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts and percentage and inferential statistics of chi-square (X²). Findings of this study revealed that physical activities and parental influences were determinant of obesity. Physical activity is essential in reducing the rate of obesity in Eti Osa Local Government Area both at home and within the school environment. Primary schools need to create more playing ground for pupils to exercise themselves. Parents need to cater for their children diet ensuring not just the quantity but the quality as well.

Keywords: feeding pattern, obese pupils, parental influence, physical activities

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Authors: T. K. Dutta, K. K. Das, N. Dutta

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The salient feature of this paper is primarily concerned with Ricker’s population model: f(x)=x e^(r(1-x/k)), where r is the control parameter and k is the carrying capacity, and some fruitful results are obtained with the following objectives: 1) Determination of bifurcation values leading to a chaotic region, 2) Development of Statistical Methods and Analysis required for the measure of Fractal dimensions, 3) Calculation of various fractal dimensions. These results also help that the invariant probability distribution on the attractor, when it exists, provides detailed information about the long-term behavior of a dynamical system. At the end, some open problems are posed for further research.

Keywords: Feigenbaum universality, chaos, Lyapunov exponent, fractal dimensions

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Authors: Kayode A. Olaniyi, Tola. M. Osifeko, Adeola A. Ogunleye

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Text line segmentation is an important step in document image processing. It represents a labeling process that assigns the same label using distance metric probability to spatially aligned units. Text line detection techniques have successfully been implemented mainly in printed documents. However, processing of the handwritten texts especially unconstrained documents has remained a key problem. This is because the unconstrained hand-written text lines are often not uniformly skewed. The spaces between text lines may not be obvious, complicated by the nature of handwriting and, overlapping ascenders and/or descenders of some characters. Hence, text lines detection and segmentation represents a leading challenge in handwritten document image processing. Text line detection methods that rely on the traditional global projection profile of the text document cannot efficiently confront with the problem of variable skew angles between different text lines. Hence, the formulation of a horizontal line as a separator is often not efficient. This paper presents a technique to segment a handwritten document into distinct lines of text. The proposed algorithm starts, by partitioning the initial text image into columns, across its width into chunks of about 5% each. At each vertical strip of 5%, the histogram of horizontal runs is projected. We have worked with the assumption that text appearing in a single strip is almost parallel to each other. The algorithm developed provides a sliding window through the first vertical strip on the left side of the page. It runs through to identify the new minimum corresponding to a valley in the projection profile. Each valley would represent the starting point of the orientation line and the ending point is the minimum point on the projection profile of the next vertical strip. The derived text-lines traverse around any obstructing handwritten vertical strips of connected component by associating it to either the line above or below. A decision of associating such connected component is made by the probability obtained from a distance metric decision. The technique outperforms the global projection profile for text line segmentation and it is robust to handle skewed documents and those with lines running into each other.

Keywords: connected-component, projection-profile, segmentation, text-line

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Authors: Alina Muradyan, Lina Babayan, Arsen Nanyan, Gohar Galstyan, Vigen Khachatryan

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We present a photometric method for identifying stars, galaxies and quasars in multi-color surveys, which uses a library of ∼> 65000 color templates for comparison with observed objects. The method aims for extracting the information content of object colors in a statistically correct way, and performs a classification as well as a redshift estimation for galaxies and quasars in a unified approach based on the same probability density functions. For the redshift estimation, we employ an advanced version of the Minimum Error Variance estimator which determines the redshift error from the redshift dependent probability density function itself. The method was originally developed for the Calar Alto Deep Imaging Survey (CADIS), but is now used in a wide variety of survey projects. We checked its performance by spectroscopy of CADIS objects, where the method provides high reliability (6 errors among 151 objects with R < 24), especially for the quasar selection, and redshifts accurate within σz ≈ 0.03 for galaxies and σz ≈ 0.1 for quasars. For an optimization of future survey efforts, a few model surveys are compared, which are designed to use the same total amount of telescope time but different sets of broad-band and medium-band filters. Their performance is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations as well as by analytic evaluation in terms of classification and redshift estimation. If photon noise were the only error source, broad-band surveys and medium-band surveys should perform equally well, as long as they provide the same spectral coverage. In practice, medium-band surveys show superior performance due to their higher tolerance for calibration errors and cosmic variance. Finally, we discuss the relevance of color calibration and derive important conclusions for the issues of library design and choice of filters. The calibration accuracy poses strong constraints on an accurate classification, which are most critical for surveys with few, broad and deeply exposed filters, but less severe for surveys with many, narrow and less deep filters.

Keywords: VO, ArVO, DFBS, FITS, image processing, data analysis

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Authors: Mahsa Kallhor Mohammadi, Hamideh Reshadatjoo

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This study verified the relationship between in-service training and employees’ feeling of psychological ownership. This research applied a descriptive survey that investigated a correlation between variables. The target population was 140 employees of a Drilling Fluid and Waste Management Service Company, and the sample was 123 employees who were selected randomly and encouraged to complete an electronic questionnaire which was designed based on standard questionnaires for research variables covering 62 questions. The face validity of the questionnaire was supported by an experimental test, and its content validity was approved by the thesis supervisor and consulting advisor. For the descriptive statistics frequency tables and diagrams, measures of central tendency such as mode, median, and mean and measures of variability such as variance, standards deviation, and quartile deviation were used. In the inferential statistics section, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to verify the relationship between the variables of the research. According to the results, all of the research hypotheses were supported. According to hypothesis 1, there was a positive and significant relationship between training policy-making and employees’ psychological ownership (r=0/408, α=0/05). According to hypothesis 2, there was a positive and significant relationship between training planning and employees’ psychological ownership (r=0/446, α=0/05). According to hypothesis 3, there was a positive and significant relationship between providing the training and employees’ psychological ownership (r=0/512, α=0/05). According to hypothesis 4, there was a positive and significant relationship between training performance management and employees’ psychological ownership (r=0/462, α=0/05). According to hypothesis 5, there was a positive and significant relationship between employees’ motivation and psychological ownership (r=0/694, α=0/05). Therefore, through systematic in-service training, which is in the same line with the strategic goals of an organization and is based on scientific needs analysis, design, implementation, and evaluation, it is possible to improve employees’ sense of psychological ownership toward an organization.

Keywords: in-service training, motivation, organizational behavior, psychological ownership

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Authors: A. Aloga, A. S. Aloga

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The study examined the influence of instructional supervision on teachers’ performance in secondary schools in Otukpo LGA of Benue State. The study was guided by four research questions and four hypotheses. The study employed a descriptive research design. The population of the study comprised of 579 teachers in 26 public secondary schools out of which 236 respondents were sampled and used as the studied population. The instrument used for data collection was a structured questionnaire, titled ‘Instructional Supervision and Teachers Performance Questionnaire (ISTPQ)’ The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics of mean and standard deviation to answer the research questions. And Chi-Square Statistics was used to test the hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance. The study found that instructional supervision has a significant influence on teachers’ lesson planning, effective teaching, teachers’ class attendance and teachers’ classroom management. The study concluded that instructional supervision influences teachers’ performance. It was recommended that; instructional supervisors should always give useful suggestions as regards the best instructional practices needed by teachers in enhancing lesson planning. The government should recruit more trained and qualified instructional supervisors to be able to meet the intending demands of instructional supervision. This will relieve the existing few qualified instructional supervisors from work overload which may result to ineffectiveness and poor performance of their duties. Conferences and seminars should be organized for instructional supervisors from time to time to cater for the professional assistance needed by teachers. The state government should always provide adequate funding for these conferences and seminars since it provides an avenue for acquiring new knowledge in educational development by teachers among others.

Keywords: influence, instructional supervision, teachers’ performance, secondary schools

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