Search results for: one year follow-up
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4777

Search results for: one year follow-up

4297 Effect of Forests and Forest Cover Change on Rainfall in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Authors: Alemayehu Muluneh, Saskia Keesstra, Leo Stroosnijder, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ashenafi Burka

Abstract:

There are some scientific evidences and a belief by many that forests attract rain and deforestation contributes to a decline of rainfall. However, there is still a lack of concrete scientific evidence on the role of forests in rainfall amount. In this paper, we investigate the forest-rainfall relationships in the environmentally hot spot area of the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Specifically, we evaluate long term (1970-2009) rainfall variability and its relationship with historical forest cover and the relationship between existing forest cover and topographical variables and rainfall distribution. The study used 16 long term and 15 short term rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test, bi variate and multiple regression models were used. The results show forest and wood land cover continuously declined over the 40 years period (1970-2009), but annual rainfall in the rift valley floor increased by 6.42 mm/year. But, on the escarpment and highlands, annual rainfall decreased by 2.48 mm/year. The increase in annual rainfall in the rift valley floor is partly attributable to the increase in evaporation as a result of increasing temperatures from the 4 existing lakes in the rift valley floor. Though, annual rainfall is decreasing on the escarpment and highlands, there was no significant correlation between this rainfall decrease and forest and wood land decline and also rainfall variability in the region was not explained by forest cover. Hence, the decrease in annual rainfall on the escarpment and highlands is likely related to the global warming of the atmosphere and the surface waters of the Indian Ocean. Spatial variability of number of rainy days from systematically observed two-year’s rainfall data (2012-2013) was significantly (R2=-0.63) explained by forest cover (distance from forest). But, forest cover was not a significant variable (R2=-0.40) in explaining annual rainfall amount. Generally, past deforestation and existing forest cover showed very little effect on long term and short term rainfall distribution, but a significant effect on number of rainy days in the CRV of Ethiopia.

Keywords: elevation, forest cover, rainfall, slope

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4296 Development and Validation of an Electronic Module in Linear Motion for First Year College Students of Iloilo City

Authors: Donna H. Gabor

Abstract:

This study aimed to develop and validate an electronic module in physics for first-year college students of Iloilo and find out if there would be a significant difference in the performance of students before and after using the electronic module. The e-module was composed of one topic with two sub-lessons in linear motion (kinematics). The participants of the study were classified into three groups: the subject matter experts who are physics instructors who suggested the content, physical appearance, and limitations of the e-module; the IT experts who are active both in teaching and developing computer programs; and 28 students divided into two groups, 15 in the pilot group and 13 in the final test group. A researcher created 30 items checklist form (difficulty of a sample problem, comprehension, application, and definition of terms) was prepared and validated by the experts in subject matter for gathering data. To test the difference in student performance in physics, the researcher prepared an achievement test containing 25 items, multiple choices. The findings revealed that there was an increase in the performance of students in the pretest and post-test. T-test results revealed that there was a significant difference in the test scores of the students before and after using the module which can be used as a future reference for linear motion as an additional teaching tool in physics.

Keywords: electronic module, kinematics, linear motion, physics

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4295 Determinants of Quality of Life in Patients with Atypical Prarkinsonian Syndromes: 1-Year Follow-Up Study

Authors: Tatjana Pekmezovic, Milica Jecmenica-Lukic, Igor Petrovic, Vladimir Kostic

Abstract:

Background: A group of atypical parkinsonian syndromes (APS) includes a variety of rare neurodegenerative disorders characterized by reduced life expectancy, increasing disability, and considerable impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Aim: In this study we wanted to answer two questions: a) which demographic and clinical factors are main contributors of HRQoL in our cohort of patients with APS, and b) how does quality of life of these patients change over 1-year follow-up period. Patients and Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study in hospital settings. The initial study comprised all consecutive patients who were referred to the Department of Movement Disorders, Clinic of Neurology, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade (Serbia), from January 31, 2000 to July 31, 2013, with the initial diagnoses of ‘Parkinson’s disease’, ‘parkinsonism’, ‘atypical parkinsonism’ and ‘parkinsonism plus’ during the first 8 months from the appearance of first symptom(s). The patients were afterwards regularly followed in 4-6 month intervals and eventually the diagnoses were established for 46 patients fulfilling the criteria for clinically probable progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and 36 patients for probable multiple system atrophy (MSA). The health-related quality of life was assessed by using the SF-36 questionnaire (Serbian translation). Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify predictors of composite scores of SF-36. The importance of changes in quality of life scores of patients with APS between baseline and follow-up time-point were quantified using Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test. The magnitude of any differences for the quality of life changes was calculated as an effect size (ES). Results: The final models of hierarchical regression analysis showed that apathy measured by the Apathy evaluation scale (AES) score accounted for 59% of the variance in the Physical Health Composite Score of SF-36 and 14% of the variance in the Mental Health Composite Score of SF-36 (p<0.01). The changes in HRQoL were assessed in 52 patients with APS who completed 1-year follow-up period. The analysis of magnitude for changes in HRQoL during one-year follow-up period have shown sustained medium ES (0.50-0.79) for both Physical and Mental health composite scores, total quality of life as well as for the Physical Health, Vitality, Role Emotional and Social Functioning. Conclusion: This study provides insight into new potential predictors of HRQoL and its changes over time in patients with APS. Additionally, identification of both prognostic markers of a poor HRQoL and magnitude of its changes should be considered when developing comprehensive treatment-related strategies and health care programs aimed at improving HRQoL and well-being in patients with APS.

Keywords: atypical parkinsonian syndromes, follow-up study, quality of life, APS

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4294 Childhood Obesity in Japan: Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Japanese Kids under 17 Years Old from 2007 to 2016

Authors: Houda Mnif Sellami, Toshi Umehara, Yuriko Yamazaki, Reie Matoba, Anna Sakashita, Yoshimi Abe, Hiroyuki Otake, Satoko Morita, Yoshitaka Akiyama, Chieko Morisawa, Eiji Omura, Masako Yazawa, Yoshie Koike, Mitsugu Tokunaga, Seiki Wada, Shinya Minagawa, Masafumi Matsuda

Abstract:

Childhood obesity has been, for decades, a very serious public health problem worldwide. Some Asian countries have already reached alarming rates, as lifestyle changed dramatically in this part of the world. In many concerned countries, strategies including educational, promotional and awareness-raising activities have been established to combat obesity within kids. Objective: To estimate the obesity and also the underweight trends of Japanese kids from 5 to 17 years, by single year of age and by gender, over the last decade. Methods We used the data from the cross-sectional annual Nationwide surveys (National Nutrition Survey, Japan, Ministry of education, culture, sports, science and technology) conducted from 2007 to 2016. We compared trajectories of obesity prevalence, with the data on sex and age groups. We also analyzed energy and macronutrients intakes of Japanese kids using Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare-Japan annual data, from 2007 to 2014. Results: From 2007 to 2016, Boys obesity was higher than Girls obesity for the over 6 YO participants. Both Boys and Girls obesity trends had 2 peaks of prevalence at (11-13 YO) and then at (15-16 YO). From 2007 to 2012, Kids obesity decreased considerably in both sex and all year of age; then obesity decline was more modest till 2016.On the other side, Kids underweight prevalence increased in both sexes. The macronutrients analyze couldn’t show an evident association between obesity trends and foods intake. Conclusion: Japanese kids’ obesity has been decreased since 2007, in opposition to some other countries reports. We didn’t find an observed association with food intake using Health Ministry data; we need further investigation to estimate energy intake, lifestyle and physical activity by year of age to know whether there is any possible relation.

Keywords: childhood, Japan, obesity, underweight

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4293 An Appraisal of Revenue Collection in Local Government: A Case Study of Boripe Local Government Iragbiji Osun State

Authors: Olanike O. Akinwale, Isiaka S. Adedoyin

Abstract:

Revenue is a fund realized by the government to meet both current and capital expenditures. The study found out the various ways through which local governments in Nigeria generate revenue or obtain funds and determined whether the people of Boripe local government are paying tax as at when due and also evaluated how the revenue generated is being used by the local government. During the course of this study, research questionnaires were drafted and distributed to respondents in the local government secretariat who supplied the information needed to carry out the research work. Data were collected by using simple random sampling technique where members of the population have been given equal chance of being picked as a member of the sample. Data were analysed using chart table; the chart analyzed the figure of the past two years revenue and expenditure of the local government. It was deduced from the result that revenue generated but this was not up to what one expected for this local government to finance the projected expenditure when the size was considered, its location as well as its natural endowment of this local government. This was due to lack of cooperation of the people and staffs within the local government in the local government jurisdiction as well as fraudulent activities the revenue collectors engaged in. Revenue generation is a fuel for development in any organization whether public or private. The ability of revenue drive of Boripe was not strong enough since the targeted revenue from taxation was not enough to meet the projected expenditure for a particular year as in 2016, the difference was carried forward to the next year.

Keywords: appraisal, expenditure, local government, questionnaire, revenue

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4292 The Effect of Proper Drainage on the Cost of Building and Repairing Roads

Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Saeid Amini, Hamid Reza Ghafouri

Abstract:

One of the most important factors in flexible pavement failure is the lack of proper drainage along the roads. Water on the Paving Systems is one of the main parameters of pavement failure. Though, if water is discharged without delay and prior to discharge in order to prevent damaging the pavement the lifetime of the pavement will be considerably increased. In this study, duration of water stay and materials properties in pavement systems and the effects of aggregate gradation, and hydraulic conductivity of the drainage rate and Effects of subsurface drainage systems, drainage and reduction in the lifetime of the pavement have been studied. The study conducted in accordance with the terms offered can be concluded as under. The more hydraulic conductivity the less drainage time and the use of sub-surface drainage system causes two to three times of the pavement lifetime. In this research it has been tried by study and calculate the drained and undrained pavements lifetime by considering the effectiveness of water and drainage coefficient on flexible materials modulus and by using KENLAYER software to compare the present value cost of these pavements has been paid for a 20 year lifetime design. In this study, 14 pavement sections have been considered, of which 7 sections have been drained and 7 other not. Results show that drained pavements have more initial costs but the failure severity is so little in them and have longer lifetime for a 20 year lifetime design, the drained pavements seem so economic.

Keywords: drainage, base and sub-base, elasticity modulus, aggregation

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4291 The Position of Space weather in Africa-Education and Outreach

Authors: Babagana Abubakar, Alhaji Kuya

Abstract:

Although the field of Space weather science is a young field among the space sciences, but yet history has it that activities related to this science began since the year 1859 when the great solar storm happened which resulted in the disruptions of telegraphs operations around the World at that particular time subsequently making it possible for the scientist Richard Carrington to be able to connect the Solar flare observed a day earlier before the great storm and the great deflection of the Earth’s Magnetic field (geometric storm) simultaneous with the telegraph disruption. However years later as at today with the advent of and the coming into existence of the Explorer 1, the Luna 1 and the establishments of the United States International Space Weather Program, International Geophysical Year (IGY) as well as the International Center for Space Weather Sciences and Education (ICSWSE) have made us understand the Space weather better and enable us well define the field of Space weather science. Despite the successes recorded in the development of Space sciences as a whole over the last century and the coming onboard of specialized bodies/programs on space weather like the International Space Weather Program and the ICSWSE, the majority of Africans including institutions, research organizations and even some governments are still ignorant about the existence of theSpace weather science,because apart from some very few countries like South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt among some few others the majority of the African nations and their academic institutions have no knowledge or idea about the existence of this field of Space science (Space weather).

Keywords: Africa, space, weather, education, science

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4290 Assessment and Prediction of Vehicular Emissions in Commonwealth Avenue, Quezon City at Various Policy and Technology Scenarios Using Simple Interactive Model (SIM-Air)

Authors: Ria M. Caramoan, Analiza P. Rollon, Karl N. Vergel

Abstract:

The Simple Interactive Models for Better Air Quality (SIM-air) is an integrated approach model that allows the available information to support the integrated urban air quality management. This study utilized the vehicular air pollution information system module of SIM-air for the assessment of vehicular emissions in Commonwealth Avenue, Quezon City, Philippines. The main objective of the study is to assess and predict the contribution of different types of vehicles to the vehicular emissions in terms of PM₁₀, SOₓ, and NOₓ at different policy and technology scenarios. For the base year 2017, the results show vehicular emissions of 735.46 tons of PM₁₀, 108.90 tons of SOₓ, and 2,101.11 tons of NOₓ. Motorcycle is the major source of particulates contributing about 52% of the PM₁₀ emissions. Meanwhile, Public Utility Jeepneys contribute 27% of SOₓ emissions and private cars using gasoline contribute 39% of NOₓ emissions. Ambient air quality monitoring was also conducted in the study area for the standard parameters of PM₁₀, S0₂, and NO₂. Results show an average of 88.11 µg/Ncm, 47.41 µg/Ncm and 22.54 µg/Ncm for PM₁₀, N0₂, and SO₂, respectively, all were within the DENR National Ambient Air Quality Guideline Values. Future emissions of PM₁₀, NOₓ, and SOₓ are estimated at different scenarios. Results show that in the year 2030, PM₁₀ emissions will be increased by 186.2%. NOₓ emissions and SOₓ emissions will also be increased by 38.9% and 5.5%, without the implementation of the scenarios.

Keywords: ambient air quality, emissions inventory, mobile air pollution, vehicular emissions

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4289 Mass Flux and Forensic Assessment: Informed Remediation Decision Making at One of Canada’s Most Polluted Sites

Authors: Tony R. Walker, N. Devin MacAskill, Andrew Thalhiemer

Abstract:

Sydney Harbour, Nova Scotia, Canada has long been subject to effluent and atmospheric inputs of contaminants, including thousands of tons of PAHs from a large coking and steel plant which operated in Sydney for nearly a century. Contaminants comprised of coal tar residues which were discharged from coking ovens into a small tidal tributary, which became known as the Sydney Tar Ponds (STPs), and subsequently discharged into Sydney Harbour. An Environmental Impact Statement concluded that mobilization of contaminated sediments posed unacceptable ecological risks, therefore immobilizing contaminants in the STPs using solidification and stabilization was identified as a primary source control remediation option to mitigate against continued transport of contaminated sediments from the STPs into Sydney Harbour. Recent developments in contaminant mass flux techniques focus on understanding “mobile” vs. “immobile” contaminants at remediation sites. Forensic source evaluations are also increasingly used for understanding origins of PAH contaminants in soils or sediments. Flux and forensic source evaluation-informed remediation decision-making uses this information to develop remediation end point goals aimed at reducing off-site exposure and managing potential ecological risk. This study included reviews of previous flux studies, calculating current mass flux estimates and a forensic assessment using PAH fingerprint techniques, during remediation of one of Canada’s most polluted sites at the STPs. Historically, the STPs was thought to be the major source of PAH contamination in Sydney Harbour with estimated discharges of nearly 800 kg/year of PAHs. However, during three years of remediation monitoring only 17-97 kg/year of PAHs were discharged from the STPs, which was also corroborated by an independent PAH flux study during the first year of remediation which estimated 119 kg/year. The estimated mass efflux of PAHs from the STPs during remediation was in stark contrast to ~2000 kg loading thought necessary to cause a short term increase in harbour sediment PAH concentrations. These mass flux estimates during remediation were also between three to eight times lower than PAHs discharged from the STPs a decade prior to remediation, when at the same time, government studies demonstrated on-going reduction in PAH concentrations in harbour sediments. Flux results were also corroborated using forensic source evaluations using PAH fingerprint techniques which found a common source of PAHs for urban soils, marine and aquatic sediments in and around Sydney. Coal combustion (from historical coking) and coal dust transshipment (from current coal transshipment facilities), are likely the principal source of PAHs in these media and not migration of PAH laden sediments from the STPs during a large scale remediation project.

Keywords: contaminated sediment, mass flux, forensic source evaluations, remediation

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4288 Interannual Variations in Snowfall and Continuous Snow Cover Duration in Pelso, Central Finland, Linked to Teleconnection Patterns, 1944-2010

Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, S. Mohammadighavam, M. Zarrini, B. Kløve

Abstract:

Climate warming would increase rainfall by shifting precipitation falling form from snow to rain, and would accelerate snow cover disappearing by increasing snowpack. Using temperature and precipitation data in the temperature-index snowmelt model, we evaluated variability of snowfall and continuous snow cover duration(CSCD) during 1944-2010 over Pelso, central Finland. MannKendall non-parametric test determined that annual precipitation increased by 2.69 (mm/year, p<0.05) during the study period, but no clear trend in annual temperature. Both annual rainfall and snowfall increased by 1.67 and 0.78 (mm/year, p<0.05), respectively. CSCD was generally about 205 days from 14 October to 6 May. No clear trend was found in CSCD over Pelso. Spearman’s rank correlation showed most significant relationships of annual snowfall with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and CSCD with the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) pattern. Increased precipitation with no warming temperature caused the rainfall and snowfall to increase, while no effects on CSCD.

Keywords: variations, snowfall, snow cover duration, temperature-index snowmelt model, teleconnection patterns

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4287 Biodegradation Study of a Biocomposite Material Based on Sunflower Oil and Alfa Fibers as Natural Resources

Authors: Sihem Kadem, Ratiba Irinislimane, Naima Belhaneche

Abstract:

The natural resistance to biodegradation of polymeric materials prepared from petroleum-based source and the management of their wastes in the environment are the driving forces to replace them by other biodegradable materials from renewable resources. For that, in this work new biocomposites materials have been synthesis from sunflower oil (Helianthus annuus) and alfa plants (Stipatenacissima) as natural based resources. The sunflower oil (SFO) was chemically modified via epoxidation then acrylation reactions to obtain acrylated epoxidized sunflower oil resin (AESFO). The AESFO resin was then copolymerized with styrene as co-monomer in the presence of boron trifluoride (BF3) as cationic initiator and cobalt octoate (Co) as catalyst. The alfa fibers were treated with alkali treatment (5% NaOH) before been used as bio-reinforcement. Biocomposites were prepared by mixing the resin with untreated and treated alfa fibers at different percentages. A biodegradation study was carried out for the synthesized biocomposites in a solid medium (burial in the soil) by evaluated, first, the loss of mass, the results obtained were reached between 7.8% and 11% during one year. Then an observation under an optical microscope was carried out, after one year of burial in the soil, microcracks, brown and black spots were appeared on the samples surface. This results shows that the synthesized biocomposites have a great aptitude for biodegradation.

Keywords: alfa fiber, biocomposite, biodegradation, soil, sunflower oil

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4286 The Internal Migration in Jiangxi Province, China after the Migrating Decision

Authors: Gourida Siham

Abstract:

Chinese society has witnessed a continuing trend of nationwide rural to urban migration since the 1970's. Before that age, under restricted hukou systems, peasants were kept still and fixed in the farm land. The year 1978 and later years saw the control of migration in China was relaxed gradually, freeing peasants to start their own businesses and reach out to work also in urban areas. Since then the “floating population” (migrants without local hukou) took great momentum and drew great attention from both the media and academia. The scale of such internal migration is enormous –the floating population has reached to a number of 79 million in 2000, and as of 2010, the number of migrant workers from rural China amounts to over 221 million and according to the annual survey results projections by National Bureau of Statistics; the total migrant workers in china in 2012 amounted to 262.61 million, which refers to an increase of 9.83 million compared with the previous year with increase percentage by 3.9%. Using China’s Jiangxi Province as a case, this paper examines patterns of internal migration as a response of emigrations in the context of high emigration communities. Our findings suggest that emigration of individuals initially deterred both inter-provincial and intra- provincial migration of other family members, and yet, overtime they had an increasing propensity to migrate internally at both scales.

Keywords: internal migration, jiangxi, nanchang, remittances

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4285 Hydrothermal Energy Application Technology Using Dam Deep Water

Authors: Yooseo Pang, Jongwoong Choi, Yong Cho, Yongchae Jeong

Abstract:

Climate crisis, such as environmental problems related to energy supply, is getting emerged issues, so the use of renewable energy is essentially required to solve these problems, which are mainly managed by the Paris Agreement, the international treaty on climate change. The government of the Republic of Korea announced that the key long-term goal for a low-carbon strategy is “Carbon neutrality by 2050”. It is focused on the role of the internet data centers (IDC) in which large amounts of data, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and big data as an impact of the 4th industrial revolution, are managed. The demand for the cooling system market for IDC was about 9 billion US dollars in 2020, and 15.6% growth a year is expected in Korea. It is important to control the temperature in IDC with an efficient air conditioning system, so hydrothermal energy is one of the best options for saving energy in the cooling system. In order to save energy and optimize the operating conditions, it has been considered to apply ‘the dam deep water air conditioning system. Deep water at a specific level from the dam can supply constant water temperature year-round. It will be tested & analyzed the amount of energy saving with a pilot plant that has 100RT cooling capacity. Also, a target of this project is 1.2 PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) which is the key parameter to check the efficiency of the cooling system.

Keywords: hydrothermal energy, HVAC, internet data center, free-cooling

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4284 Synergy Effect of Energy and Water Saving in China's Energy Sectors: A Multi-Objective Optimization Analysis

Authors: Yi Jin, Xu Tang, Cuiyang Feng

Abstract:

The ‘11th five-year’ and ‘12th five-year’ plans have clearly put forward to strictly control the total amount and intensity of energy and water consumption. The synergy effect of energy and water has rarely been considered in the process of energy and water saving in China, where its contribution cannot be maximized. Energy sectors consume large amounts of energy and water when producing massive energy, which makes them both energy and water intensive. Therefore, the synergy effect in these sectors is significant. This paper assesses and optimizes the synergy effect in three energy sectors under the background of promoting energy and water saving. Results show that: From the perspective of critical path, chemical industry, mining and processing of non-metal ores and smelting and pressing of metals are coupling points in the process of energy and water flowing to energy sectors, in which the implementation of energy and water saving policies can bring significant synergy effect. Multi-objective optimization shows that increasing efforts on input restructuring can effectively improve synergy effects; relatively large synergetic energy saving and little water saving are obtained after solely reducing the energy and water intensity of coupling sectors. By optimizing the input structure of sectors, especially the coupling sectors, the synergy effect of energy and water saving can be improved in energy sectors under the premise of keeping economy running stably.

Keywords: critical path, energy sector, multi-objective optimization, synergy effect, water

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4283 Developing Leadership and Teamwork Skills of Pre-Service Teachers through Learning Camp

Authors: Sirimanee Banjong

Abstract:

This study aimed to 1) develop pre-service teachers’ leadership skills through camp-based learning, and 2) develop pre-service teachers’ teamwork skills through camp-based learning. An applied research methodology was used. The target group was derived from a purposive selection. It involved 32 fourth-year students in Early Childhood Education Program enrolling in a course entitled Seminar in Early Childhood Education provided during the second semester of the academic year 2013. The treatment was camp-based learning activities which applied a PDCA process including four stages: 1) plan, 2) do, 3) check, and 4) act. Research instruments were a learning camp program, a camp-based learning management plan, a 5-level assessment form for leadership skills and a 5-level assessment form for assessing teamwork skills. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results were: 1) pre-service teachers’ leadership skills yielded the before treatment average score at ¯("x" )=3.4, S.D.= 0.62 and the after-treatment average score at ¯("x" ) 4.29, S.D.=0.66 pre-service teachers’ teamwork skills yielded the before-treatment average score at ¯("x" )=3.31, S.D.= 0.60 and the after-treatment average score at ¯("x" )=4.42, S.D.= 0.66. Both differences were statistically significant at the .05 level. Thus, the pre-service teachers’ leadership and teamwork skills were significantly improved through the camp-based learning approach.

Keywords: learning camp, leadership skills, teamwork skills, pre-service teachers

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4282 Residual Affects of Humic Matter from Sub-Bituminous in Binding Aluminium at Oxisol to Increase Production of Upland Rice

Authors: Herviyanti, Gusnidar, M. Harianti

Abstract:

The objective of this research were: a) using low-rank coal (subbituminous) as main humate material sources because this material will not be anthracite, and cannot using to be an energy sources b) to examine residual effects of humic matter from subbituminous which was combined with P fertilizers to adsorp Al and Fe metal, improving soil fertility, and increasing P fertilizing efficiency and Oxisol productivity. Therefore, optimalization crop productivity of upland rice can be achieved. The experiment was designed using a 3 x 4 factorial with 3 replications in randomly groups design. The 1st factor was 3 ways incubating humate material with P-fertilizer, which are: I1 = Incubation of humate material 1 week, then incubation P-fertilizers 1 week; I2 = Incubation of humate materials and P fertilizers directly into the soil for 2 weeks; and I3 = humate material and P fertilizer mixed for 1 week, then incubation to the soil for 1 week. The 2nd factor was residual effects of humate material and P-fertilizer combination which are 4 doses H1 = 400 ppm (0.8 Mg/ha) + 100% R; H2 = 400 ppm + 75% R; H3 = 800 ppm (1.6 Mg/ha) + 100% R,; and H4 = 800 ppm + 75% R. The 2nd year research results showed that the best treatment was founded residue effect of 800 ppm humate material and 100% R P-fertilizer doses in I3 way incubation that is equal to 6.19 t ha-1 upland rice yield. However, this result is almost the same as residual effects of 800 ppm humate material + 75% R P-fertilizer doses and upland rice yield the 1st year. It was concluded that addition of humate material can given the efficiency of P-fertilizer using up to 25% until the 2nd season planted.

Keywords: humate materials, P-fertilizer, subbituminous, upland rice

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4281 Effect of the pH on the Degradation Kinetics of Biodegradable Mg-0.8Ca Orthopedic Implants

Authors: A. Mohamed, A. El-Aziz

Abstract:

The pH of the body plays a great role in the degradation kinetics of biodegradable Mg-Ca orthopedic implants. At the location of fracture, the pH of the body becomes no longer neutral which draws the attention towards studying a range of different pH values of the body fluid. In this study, the pH of Hank’s balanced salt solution (HBSS) was modified by phosphate buffers into an aggressive acidic pH 1.8, a slightly acidic pH 5.3 and an alkaline pH 8.1. The biodegradation of Mg-0.8Ca implant was tested in those three different media using immersion test and electrochemical polarization means. It was proposed that the degradation rate has increased with decreasing the pH of HBSS. The immersion test revealed weight gain for all the samples followed by weight loss as the immersion time increased. The highest weight gain was pronounced for the acidic pH 1.8 and the least weight gain was observed for the alkaline pH 8.1. This was in agreement with the electrochemical polarization test results where the degradation rate was found to be high (7.29 ± 2.2 mm/year) in the aggressive acidic solution of pH 1.8 and relatively minimum (0.31 ± 0.06 mm/year) in the alkaline medium of pH 8.1. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the pH of HBSS has reached a steady state of an alkaline pH (~pH 11) at the end of the two-month immersion period regardless of the initial pH of the solution. Finally, the corrosion products formed on the samples’ surface were investigated by SEM, EDX and XRD analyses that revealed the formation of magnesium and calcium phosphates with different morphologies according to the pH.

Keywords: biodegradable, electrochemical polarization means, orthopedics, immersion test, simulated body fluid

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4280 The Mediating Effect of Taxpayers’ Compliance on Internal Business Process-Tax Revenue Relationship: A Case Study at the Directorate General of Taxation in Indonesia

Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

Abstract:

Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

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4279 The Provision of a Safe Face-to-Face Teaching Program for Final Year Medical Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Rachel Byrne

Abstract:

Background: Due to patient and student safety concerns, combined with clinical teachers being redeployed to clinical practice, COVID-19 has resulted in a reduction in face-to-face teaching sessions for medical students. Traditionally such sessions are particularly important for final year medical students, especially in preparing for their final practical exams. A reduced student presence on the wards has also resulted in fewer opportunities for junior doctors to provide teaching sessions. This has implications for junior doctors achieving their own curriculum outcomes for teaching, as well as potentially hindering the development of a future interest in medical education. Aims: The aims of the study are 1) To create a safe face-to-face teaching environment during COVID-19 which focussed on exam preparation for final year medical students, 2) To provide a platform for doctors to gain teaching experience, 3 ) to enable doctors to gain feedback or assessments on their teaching, 4) To create beginners guide to designing a new teaching program for future junior doctors. Methods: We created a program of timed clinical stations consisting of four sessions every five weeks during the student’s medicine attachment. Each session could be attended by 6 students and consisted of 6 stations ran by junior doctors, with each station following social distancing and personal protective equipment requirements. Junior doctors were asked to design their own stations. The sessions ran out-of-hours on weekday evenings and were optional for the students. Results: 95/95 students and 20/40 doctors involved in the programme completed feedback. 100% (n=95) of students strongly agreed/agreed that sessions were aimed at an appropriate level and provided constructive feedback. 100% (n=95) of students stated they felt more confident in their abilities and would recommend the session to peers. 90% (n=18) of the teachers strongly agreed/agreed that they felt more confident in their teaching abilities and that the sessions had improved their own medical knowledge. 85% (n=17) of doctors had a teaching assessment completed, and 83% (n=16) said the program had made them consider a career in medical education. The difficulties of creating such a program were highlighted throughout, and a beginner’s guide was created with the hopes of helping future doctors who are interested in teaching address the common obstacles.

Keywords: COVID-19, education, safety, medical

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4278 Monitoring Large-Coverage Forest Canopy Height by Integrating LiDAR and Sentinel-2 Images

Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

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Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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4277 Success of Trabeculectomy: May Not Always Depend on Mitomycin C

Authors: Sushma Tejwani, Shoruba Dinakaran, Rupa Rokhade, K. Bhujang Shetty

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Introduction and aim: One of the major causes for failure of trabeculectomy is fibrosis and scarring of subconjunctival tissue around the bleb, and hence intra operative usage of anti-fibrotic agents like Mitomycin C (MMC) has become very popular. However, the long term effects of MMC like thin, avascular bleb, hypotony, bleb leaks and late onset endophthalmitis cannot be ignored, and may preclude its usage in routine trabeculectomy. In this particular study we aim to study the outcomes of trabeculectomy with and without MMC in uncomplicated glaucoma patients. Methods: Retrospective study of series of patients that underwent trabeculectomy with or without cataract surgery in glaucoma department of a tertiary eye care centre by a single surgeon for primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), angle closure glaucoma (PACG), Pseudoexfoliation glaucoma (PXF glaucoma). Patients with secondary glaucoma, juvenile and congenital glaucoma were excluded; also patients undergoing second trabeculectomy were excluded. The outcomes were studied in terms of IOP control at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year and were analyzed separately for surgical outcomes with and without MMC. Success was considered if IOP was < 16 mmHg on applanation tonometry. Further, the necessity of medication, 5 fluorouracil (5FU) postoperative injections, needling post operatively was noted. Results: Eighty nine patient’s medical records were reviewed, of which 58 patients had undergone trabeculectomy without MMC and 31 with MMC. Mean age was 62.4 (95%CI 61- 64), 34 were females and 55 males. MMC group (n=31): Preoperative mean IOP was 21.1mmHg (95% CI: 17.6 -24.6), and 22 patients had IOP > 16. Three out of 33 patients were on single medication and rests were on multiple drugs. At 1 month (n=27) mean IOP was 12.4 mmHg (CI: 10.7-14), and 31/33 had success. At 6 months (n=18) mean IOP was 13mmHg (CI: 10.3-14.6) and 16/18 had good outcome, however at 1 year only 11 patients were available for follow up and 91% (10/11) had success. Overall, 3 patients required medication and one patient required postoperative injection of 5 FU. No MMC group (n=58): Preoperative mean IOP was 21.9 mmHg (CI: 19.8-24.2), and 42 had IOP > 16 mmHg. 12 out of 58 patients were on single medication and rests were on multiple drugs. At 1 month (n=52) mean IOP was14.6mmHg (CI: 13.2-15.9), and 45/ 58 had IOP < 16mmHg. At 6 months (n=31) mean IOP was 13.5 mmHg (CI: 11.9-15.2) and 26/31 had success, however at 1 year only 23 patients came for follow up and of these 87% (20/23) patients had success. Overall, 1 patient required needling, 5 required 5 FU injections and 5 patients required medication. The success rates at each follow up visit were not significantly different in both the groups. Conclusion: Intra-operative MMC usage may not be required in all patients undergoing trabeculectomy, and the ones without MMC also have fairly good outcomes in primary glaucoma.

Keywords: glaucoma filtration surgery, mitomycin C, outcomes of trabeculectomy, wound modulation

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4276 Improving Perceptual Reasoning in School Children through Chess Training

Authors: Ebenezer Joseph, Veena Easvaradoss, S. Sundar Manoharan, David Chandran, Sumathi Chandrasekaran, T. R. Uma

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Perceptual reasoning is the ability that incorporates fluid reasoning, spatial processing, and visual motor integration. Several theories of cognitive functioning emphasize the importance of fluid reasoning. The ability to manipulate abstractions and rules and to generalize is required for reasoning tasks. This study, funded by the Cognitive Science Research Initiative, Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, analyzed the effect of 1-year chess training on the perceptual reasoning of children. A pretest–posttest with control group design was used, with 43 (28 boys, 15 girls) children in the experimental group and 42 (26 boys, 16 girls) children in the control group. The sample was selected from children studying in two private schools from South India (grades 3 to 9), which included both the genders. The experimental group underwent weekly 1-hour chess training for 1 year. Perceptual reasoning was measured by three subtests of WISC-IV INDIA. Pre-equivalence of means was established. Further statistical analyses revealed that the experimental group had shown statistically significant improvement in perceptual reasoning compared to the control group. The present study clearly establishes a correlation between chess learning and perceptual reasoning. If perceptual reasoning can be enhanced in children, it could possibly result in the improvement of executive functions as well as the scholastic performance of the child.

Keywords: chess, cognition, intelligence, perceptual reasoning

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4275 The Mirage of Progress? a Longitudinal Study of Japanese Students’ L2 Oral Grammar

Authors: Robert Long, Hiroaki Watanabe

Abstract:

This longitudinal study examines the grammatical errors of Japanese university students’ dialogues with a native speaker over an academic year. The L2 interactions of 15 Japanese speakers were taken from the JUSFC2018 corpus (April/May 2018) and the JUSFC2019 corpus (January/February). The corpora were based on a self-introduction monologue and a three-question dialogue; however, this study examines the grammatical accuracy found in the dialogues. Research questions focused on a possible significant difference in grammatical accuracy from the first interview session in 2018 and the second one the following year, specifically regarding errors in clauses per 100 words, global errors and local errors, and with specific errors related to parts of speech. The investigation also focused on which forms showed the least improvement or had worsened? Descriptive statistics showed that error-free clauses/errors per 100 words decreased slightly while clauses with errors/100 words increased by one clause. Global errors showed a significant decline, while local errors increased from 97 to 158 errors. For errors related to parts of speech, a t-test confirmed there was a significant difference between the two speech corpora with more error frequency occurring in the 2019 corpus. This data highlights the difficulty in having students self-edit themselves.

Keywords: clause analysis, global vs. local errors, grammatical accuracy, L2 output, longitudinal study

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4274 The Correlation between Education, Food Intake, Exercise, and Medication Obedience with the Average of Blood Sugar in Indonesia

Authors: Aisyah Rahmatul Laily

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Indonesia Ministry of Health is increasing their awareness on non communicable diseases. From the top ten causes of death, two of them are non communicable diseases. Diabetes Mellitus is one of the two non communicable diseases above that have the increasing number of patient from year to year. From that problem, this research is made to determine the correlation between education, food intake, exercise, and the medication obedience with the average of blood sugar. In this research, the researchers used observational and cross-sectional studies. The sample that used in this research were 50 patients in Puskesmas Gamping I Yogyakarta who have suffered from Diabetes Mellitus in long period. The researcher doing anamnesis by using questionnaire to collect the data, then analyzed it with Chi Square to determine the correlation between each variable. The dependent variable in this research is the average of blood sugar, whereas the independent variables are education, food intake, do exercise, and the obedience of medication. The result shows a relation between education and average blood sugar level (p=0.029), a relation between food intake and average blood sugar level (p=0.009), and a relation between exercise and average blood sugar level (p=0.023). There is also a relation between the medication obedience with the average of blood sugar (p=0,002). The conclusion is that the positive correlations exist between education and average blood sugar level, between food intake and average blood sugar level, and between medication obedience and average blood sugar level.

Keywords: average of blood sugar, education, exercise, food intake, medication obedience

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4273 Extreme Heat and Workforce Health in Southern Nevada

Authors: Erick R. Bandala, Kebret Kebede, Nicole Johnson, Rebecca Murray, Destiny Green, John Mejia, Polioptro Martinez-Austria

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Summertemperature data from Clark County was collected and used to estimate two different heat-related indexes: the heat index (HI) and excess heat factor (EHF). These two indexes were used jointly with data of health-related deaths in Clark County to assess the effect of extreme heat on the exposed population. The trends of the heat indexes were then analyzed for the 2007-2016 decadeandthe correlation between heat wave episodes and the number of heat-related deaths in the area was estimated. The HI showed that this value has increased significantly in June, July, and August over the last ten years. The same trend was found for the EHF, which showed a clear increase in the severity and number of these events per year. The number of heat wave episodes increased from 1.4 per year during the 1980-2016 period to 1.66 per yearduring the 2007-2016 period. However, a different trend was found for heat-wave-event duration, which decreasedfrom an average of 20.4 days during the trans-decadal period (1980-2016) to 18.1 days during the most recent decade(2007-2016). The number of heat-related deaths was also found to increase from 2007 to 2016, with 2016 with the highest number of heat-related deaths. Both HI and the number of deaths showeda normal-like distribution for June, July, and August, with the peak values reached in late July and early August. The average maximum HI values better correlated with the number of deaths registered in Clark County than the EHF, probably because HI uses the maximum temperature and humidity in its estimation,whereas EHF uses the average medium temperature. However, it is worth testing the EHF of the study zone because it was reported to fit properly in the case of heat-related morbidity. For the overall period, 437 heat-related deaths were registered in Clark County, with 20% of the deaths occurring in June, 52% occurring in July, 18% occurring in August,and the remaining 10% occurring in the other months of the year. The most vulnerable subpopulation was people over 50 years old, for which 76% of the heat-related deaths were registered.Most of the cases were associated with heart disease preconditions. The second most vulnerable subpopulation was young adults (20-50), which accounted for 23% of the heat-related deaths. These deathswere associated with alcoholic/illegal drug intoxication.

Keywords: heat, health, hazards, workforce

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4272 Uncloaking Priceless Pieces of Evidence: Psychotherapy with an Older New Zealand Man; Contributions to Understanding Hidden Historical Phenomena and the Trans-Generation Transmission of Silent and Un-Witnessed Trauma

Authors: Joanne M. Emmens

Abstract:

This paper makes use of the case notes of a single psychoanalytically informed psychotherapy of a now 72-year-old man over a four-year period to explore the potential of qualitative data to be incorporated into a research methodology that can contribute theory and knowledge to the wider professional community involved in mental health care. The clinical material arising out of any psychoanalysis provides a potentially rich source of clinical data that could contribute valuably to our historical understanding of both individual and societal traumata. As psychoanalysis is primarily an investigation, it is argued that clinical case material is a rich source of qualitative data which has relevance for sociological and historical understandings and that it can potentially aluminate important ‘gaps’ and collective blind spots that manifest unconsciously and are a contributing factor in the transmission of trauma, silently across generations. By attending to this case material the hope is to illustrate the value of using a psychoanalytic centred methodology. It is argued that the study of individual defences and the manner in which they come into consciousness, allows an insight into group defences and the unconscious forces that contribute to the silencing or un-noticing of important sources (or originators) of mental suffering.

Keywords: dream furniture (Bion) and psychotic functioning, reverie, screen memories, selected fact

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4271 Early Outcomes and Lessons from the Implementation of a Geriatric Hip Fracture Protocol at a Level 1 Trauma Center

Authors: Peter Park, Alfonso Ayala, Douglas Saeks, Jordan Miller, Carmen Flores, Karen Nelson

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Introduction Hip fractures account for more than 300,000 hospital admissions every year. Many present as fragility fractures in geriatric patients with multiple medical comorbidities. Standardized protocols for the multidisciplinary management of this patient population have been shown to improve patient outcomes. A hip fracture protocol was implemented at a Level I Trauma center with a focus on pre-operative medical optimization and early surgical care. This study evaluates the efficacy of that protocol, including the early transition period. Methods A retrospective review was performed of all patients ages 60 and older with isolated hip fractures who were managed surgically between 2020 and 2022. This included patients 1 year prior and 1 year following the implementation of a hip fracture protocol at a Level I Trauma center. Results 530 patients were identified: 249 patients were treated before, and 281 patients were treated after the protocol was instituted. There was no difference in mean age (p=0.35), gender (p=0.3), or Charlson Comorbidity Index (p=0.38) between the cohorts. Following the implementation of the protocol, there were observed increases in time to surgery (27.5h vs. 33.8h, p=0.01), hospital length of stay (6.3d vs. 9.7d, p<0.001), and ED LOS (5.1h vs. 6.2h, p<0.001). There were no differences in in-hospital mortality (2.01% pre vs. 3.20% post, p=0.39) and complication rates (25% pre vs 26% post, p=0.76). A trend towards improved outcomes was seen after the early transition period but failed to yield statistical significance. Conclusion Early medical management and surgical intervention are key determining factors affecting outcomes following fragility hip fractures. The implementation of a hip fracture protocol at this institution has not yet significantly affected these parameters. This could in part be due to the restrictions placed at this institution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, the time to OR pre-and post-implementation was quicker than figures reported elsewhere in literature. Further longitudinal data will be collected to determine the final influence of this protocol. Significance/Clinical Relevance Given the increasing number of elderly people and the high morbidity and mortality associated with hip fractures in this population finding cost effective ways to improve outcomes in the management of these injuries has the potential to have enormous positive impact for both patients and hospital systems.

Keywords: hip fracture, geriatric, treatment algorithm, preoperative optimization

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4270 Adaptive Training Methods Designed to Improve a Shorter Resident Curriculum in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Authors: Philippe Judlin, Olivier Morel

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Background: In France, the resident curriculum (RC) in Obstetrics and Gynecology (OBGYN) takes five years. In the course of the last 15 years, this RC has undergone major changes, characterized mainly by successive reductions of work hours. The program used to comprise long and frequent shifts, huge workload, poor supervision and erratic theoretical teaching. A decade ago, the French Ministry of Heath recommended a limitation of shift duration up to 24 hours and a minimum of 11 hours off duty between shifts. Last year, in order to comply with European Union directives, new recommendations have further limited residents’ work hours to 48 hours per week. Methods: Assessment of the residency program adjustments recently made to accommodate the recommendations while improving the training quality in resorting to new methods. Results: The challenge facing program directors was to provide an all-encompassing curriculum to OBGYN residents despite fewer work hours. Program has been dramatically redesigned, and several measures have been put in place: -The resident rotation system has been redesigned. Residents used to make 6-month rotations between 10-12 Departments of OBGYN or Surgery. Fewer Departments, those providing the best teaching, have been kept in the new RC. -Extensive inhouse supervision has been implemented for all kinds of clinical activities. Effectual supervision of residents has proved to be an effective tool to improve the quality of training. -The tutorship system, with academic members individually overseeing residents during their curriculum, has been perfected. It allows a better follow-up of residents’ progresses during the 5-year program. -The set up of an extensive program of lectures encompassing all maters in Obstetrics & Gynecology. These mandatory lectures are available online in a dedicated website. Therefore, face-to-face lectures have been limited in order to fit in the 48-hour limit. -The use of simulation has been significantly increased in obstetrics, materno-fetal medicine and surgery (stressing especially laparoscopic training). -Residents’ feedback has been taken into account in the setup of the new RC. Conclusion: This extensive overhaul of the Obstetrics and Gynecology RC has been in place since last year only. Nevertheless, the new program seems to adequately take into account the new recommendations while providing a better and more consistent teaching to the OBGYN residents.

Keywords: education, laparoscopy, residency, simulation

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4269 Changing Trends in the Use of Induction Agents for General Anesthesia for Cesarean Section

Authors: Mahmoud Hassanin, Amita Gupta

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Background: During current practice, Thiopentone is not cost-effectively added to resources wastage, risk of drug error with antibiotics, short shelf life, infection risk, and risk of delay while preparing during category one cesarean section. There is no significant difference or preference to the other alternative as per current use. Aims and Objectives: Patient safety, Cost-effective use of trust resources, problem awareness, Consider improvising on the current practice. Methods: In conjunction with the local department survey results, many studies support the change. Results: More than 50%(15 from 29) are already using Propofol, more than 75% of the participant are willing to shift to Propofol if it becomes standard, and the cost analysis also revealed that Thiopentone 10 X500=£60 Propofol 10X200= £5.20, Cost of Thiopentone/year =£2190. Approximately GA in a year =35-40 could cost approximately £20 Propofol, given it is a well-established practice. We could save not only money, but it will be environmentally friendly also to avoid adding any carbon footprints. Recommendation: Thiopentone is rarely used as an induction agent for the category one Caesarean section in our obstetric emergency theatres. Most obstetric anesthetists are using Propofol. Keep both Propofol and thiopentone(powder not withdrawn) in the cat one cesarean section emergency drugs tray ready until the department completely changes the practice protocol. A further retrospective study is required to compare the outcomes for these induction agents through the local database.

Keywords: thiopentone, propofol, category 1 caesarean, induction agents

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4268 Economic Evaluation of an Advanced Bioethanol Manufacturing Technology Using Maize as a Feedstock in South Africa

Authors: Ayanda Ndokwana, Stanley Fore

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Industrial prosperity and rapid expansion of human population in South Africa over the past two decades, have increased the use of conventional fossil fuels such as crude oil, coal and natural gas to meet the country’s energy demands. However, the inevitable depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global volatile oil price and large carbon footprint are some of the crucial reasons the South African Government needs to make a considerable investment in the development of the biofuel industry. In South Africa, this industry is still at the introductory stage with no large scale manufacturing plant that has been commissioned yet. Bioethanol is a potential replacement of gasoline which is a fossil fuel that is used in motor vehicles. Using bioethanol for the transport sector as a source of fuel will help Government to save heavy foreign exchange incurred during importation of oil and create many job opportunities in rural farming. In 2007, the South African Government developed the National Biofuels Industrial Strategy in an effort to make provision for support and attract investment in bioethanol production. However, capital investment in the production of bioethanol on a large scale, depends on the sound economic assessment of the available manufacturing technologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the profitability of an advanced bioethanol manufacturing technology which uses maize as a feedstock in South Africa. The impact of fiber or bran fractionation in this technology causes it to possess a number of merits such as energy efficiency, low capital expenditure, and profitability compared to a conventional dry-mill bioethanol technology. Quantitative techniques will be used to collect and analyze numerical data from suitable organisations in South Africa. The dependence of three profitability indicators such as the Discounted Payback Period (DPP), Net Present Value (NPV) and Return On Investment (ROI) on plant capacity will be evaluated. Profitability analysis will be done on the following plant capacities: 100 000 ton/year, 150 000 ton/year and 200 000 ton/year. The plant capacity with the shortest Discounted Payback Period, positive Net Present Value and highest Return On Investment implies that a further consideration in terms of capital investment is warranted.

Keywords: bioethanol, economic evaluation, maize, profitability indicators

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