Search results for: geopolitical crisis

Authors: Sarah Holdren, Laura Crook, Anne Drapkin Lyerly

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Objective: The COVID-19 Pandemic has drawn new attention to long-existing bioethical questions around pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood. Due to the increased risk of severe COVID-19, pregnant individuals may experience anxiety regarding medical decision-making. Especially in the case of hospital births, questions around the ethics of bringing healthy pregnant individuals into a high-risk environment for viral transmission illuminate gaps in the American maternal and child healthcare system. Limited research has sought to understand the experiences of those who gave birth outside hospitals during this time. This study aims to understand pregnant individuals’ conceptualization of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individuals who gave birth after March 2020 were recruited through advertisements on social media. Participants completed a 1-hour semi-structured interview and a demographic questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed and coded by members of the research team using thematic narrative analysis. Results: A total of 18 participants were interviewed and completed the demographic questionnaire. The language of risk was utilized in birth narratives in three different ways, which highlighted the multileveled and nuanced ways in which risk is understood and mitigated by pregnant and birthing individuals. These included: 1. The risk of contracting COVID-19 before, during, and after birth, 2. The risk of birth complications requiring medical interventions dependent on selected birthing space (home, birthing center, hospital), and 3. The overall risk of creating life in the middle of a pandemic. The risk of contracting COVID-19 and risk of birth complications were often weighed in paradoxical ways throughout each individual’s pregnancy, while phrases such as “pandemic baby” and “apocalypse” appeared throughout narratives and highlighted the broader implications of pregnancy and childbirth during this momentous time. Conclusions: Healthcare professionals should consider the variety of ways that pregnant and birthing individuals understand the risk when counseling patients on healthcare decisions, especially during times of healthcare crisis such as COVID-19. Future work should look to understand how the language of risk fits into a broader understanding of the human experience of growing life in times of crisis.

Keywords: maternal and child health, thematic narrative analysis, COVID-19, risk mitigation

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Authors: Mubashra Shaheen

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The conflict over the South China Sea (SCS) is a complex imbroglio spanning over several territorial and maritime claims involving two major island groups, the Paracels and the Spratlys. It has become a major source of geopolitical competition between the United States and China. The study's overall objective is to understand China's land reclamations and assertive behavior in the South China Sea, which lies between both the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Over half of global commerce passes through these waterways, which host a great amount of marine life and hydrocarbon deposits. China's sand-filling and island-building strategy in the South China Sea is motivated by its goal of privatizing all these riches as well as the routes. It would raise China to the pinnacle of world power status as well as allow it to threaten the dominance of the U.S. The study will examine China's assertive behavior and modernization plans as well as the United States' quest for supremacy through the lens of realists. While using a qualitative method of analysis, the study will examine China's nine-dash line claims and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), UNCLOS, and U.S.-China divergence over international law considerations to pacify the tensions in the South China Sea. This paper is intended to explore the possible answers to the following questions: (1) Why does China’s rise necessitate the US's efforts to contain and encircle it through the lending of a hand to strategic partners and allies in the South China Sea? (2) Why South China Sea dispute is so complex imbroglio? (3) What are US-China international law considerations regarding the South China Sea? The study will further follow the bellow research procedure: 1: Comparative Legal Method: This method simply chalk-outs the follow of few steps that discarnate the positive and negative effects of the great power competitions. 2: Conceptualization: The conceptualization of the policies of containment defines and differentiates two different problems behind the persuasive means of hegemony and dominance in the strategic milieu.

Keywords: us, china, south china sea, unclos

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Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

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Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

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Authors: Rigas Kotsakis, Nikolaos Tsigilis, Vasilis Grammatikopoulos, Evridiki Zachopoulou

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During the last decade, Greece has faced an unprecedented financial crisis, affecting various aspects and functionalities of Higher Education. Besides the restricted funding of academic institutions, the students and their families encountered economical difficulties that undoubtedly influenced the effective completion of their studies. In this context, a fairly large number of students in Alexander campus of International Hellenic University (IHU) delay, interrupt, or even abandon their studies, especially when they come from low-income families, belong to sensitive social or special needs groups, they have different cultural origins, etc. For this reason, a European project, named “Umbrella”, was initiated aiming at providing the necessary psychological support and counseling, especially to disadvantaged students, towards the completion of their studies. To this end, a network of various academic members (academic staff and students) from IHU, namely iMentor, were implicated in different roles. Specifically, experienced academic staff trained students to serve as intermediate links for the integration and educational support of students that fall into the aforementioned sensitive social groups and face problems for the completion of their studies. The main idea of the project is held upon its person-centered character, which facilitates direct student-to-student communication without the intervention of the teaching staff. The backbone of the iMentors network are senior students that face no problem in their academic life and volunteered for this project. It should be noted that there is a provision from the Umbrella structure for substantial and ethical rewards for their engagement. In this context, a well-defined, stringent methodology was implemented for the evaluation of the extent of the problem in IHU and the detection of the profile of the “candidate” disadvantaged students. The first phase included two steps, (a) data collection and (b) data cleansing/ preprocessing. The first step involved the data collection process from the Secretary Services of all Schools in IHU, from 1980 to 2019, which resulted in 96.418 records. The data set included the School name, the semester of studies, a student enrolling criteria, the nationality, the graduation year or the current, up-to-date academic state (still studying, delayed, dropped off, etc.). The second step of the employed methodology involved the data cleansing/preprocessing because of the existence of “noisy” data, missing and erroneous values, etc. Furthermore, several assumptions and grouping actions were imposed to achieve data homogeneity and an easy-to-interpret subsequent statistical analysis. Specifically, the duration of 40 years recording was limited to the last 15 years (2004-2019). In 2004 the Greek Technological Institutions were evolved into Higher Education Universities, leading into a stable and unified frame of graduate studies. In addition, the data concerning active students were excluded from the analysis since the initial processing effort was focused on the detection of factors/variables that differentiated graduate and deleted students. The final working dataset included 21.432 records with only two categories of students, those that have a degree and those who abandoned their studies. Findings of the first phase are presented across faculties and further discussed.

Keywords: higher education, students support, economic crisis, mentoring

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Authors: Mohamed Aljarallah, Mohamed Nurullah, George Saridakis

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This paper aims and objectives are to investigate how the structural change of the financial regulatory bodies affect the financial supervision and how the regulators can design such a structure with taking into account; the Central Bank, the conduct of business and the prudential regulators, it will also consider looking at the structure of the international regulatory bodies and what barriers are found. There will be five questions to be answered; should conduct of business and prudential regulation be separated? Should the financial supervision and financial stability be separated? Should the financial supervision be under the Central Bank? To what extent the politician should intervene in changing the regulatory and supervisory structure? What should be the regulatory and supervisory structure when there is financial conglomerate? Semi structure interview design will be applied. This research sample selection contains a collective of financial regulators and supervisors from the emerged and emerging countries. Moreover, financial regulators and supervisors must be at a senior level at their organisations. Additionally, senior financial regulators and supervisors would come from different authorities and from around the world. For instance, one of the participants comes from the International Bank Settlements, others come from European Central Bank, and an additional one will come from Hong Kong Monetary Authority and others. Such a variety aims to fulfil the aims and objectives of the research and cover the research questions. The analysis process starts with transcription of the interview, using Nvivo software for coding, applying thematic interview to generate the main themes. The major findings of the study are as follow. First, organisational structure changes quite frequently if the mandates are not clear. Second, measuring structural change is difficult, which makes the whole process unclear. Third, effective coordination and communication are what regulators looking for when they change the structure and that requires; openness, trust, and incentive. In addition to that, issues appear during the event of crisis tend to be the reason why the structure change. Also, the development of the market sometime causes a change in the regulatory structure. And, some structural change occurs simply because of the international trend, fashion, or other countries' experiences. Furthermore, when the top management change the structure tends to change. Moreover, the structure change due to the political change, or politicians try to show they are doing something. Finally, fear of being blamed can be a driver of structural change. In conclusion, this research aims to provide an insight from the senior regulators and supervisors from fifty different countries to have a clear understanding of why the regulatory structure keeps changing from time to time through a qualitative approach, namely, semi-structure interview.

Keywords: financial regulation bodies, financial regulatory structure, global financial regulation, financial crisis

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Authors: Saraswati Kerketta

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Tea industry is one of the oldest organised sector of India. It employs roughly 1.5 million people directly. Since the last decade Indian tea industry, especially in the northern region is experiencing worst crisis in the post-independence period. Due to many reason the prices of tea show steady decline. The workers are paid one of the lowest wage in tea industry in the world (1.5$ a day) below the UN's $2 a day for extreme poverty. The workers rely on addition benefits from plantation which includes food, housing and medical facilities. These have been effective means of enslavement of generations of labourers by the owners. There is hardly any change in the tea estates where the owners determine the fate of workers. When the tea garden is abandoned or is closed all the facilities disappear immediately. The workers are the descendants of tribes from central India also known as 'tea tribes'. Alienated from their native place, the geographical and social isolation compounded their vulnerability of these people. The economy of the region being totally dependent on tea has resulted in absolute unemployment for the workers of these tea gardens. With no other livelihood and no land to grow food, thousands of workers faced hunger and starvation. The Plantation Labour Act which ensures the decent working and living condition is violated continuously. The labours are forced to migrate and are also exposed to the risk of human trafficking. Those who are left behind suffers from starvation, malnutrition and disease. The condition in the sick tea plantation is no better. Wage are not paid regularly, subsidised food, fuel are also not supplied properly. Health care facilities are in very bad shape. Objectives: • To study the socio-cultural and demographic characteristics of the tea garden labourers in the study area. • To examine the social situation of workers in sick estates in dooars region. • To assess the magnitude of deprivation the impact of economic crisis on abandoned and closed tea estates in the region. Data Base: The study is based on data collected from field survey. Methods: Quantative: Cross-Tabulation, Regression analysis. Qualitative: Household Survey, Focussed Group Discussion, In-depth interview of key informants. Findings: Purchasing power parity has declined since in last three decades. There has been many fold increase in migration. Males migrates long distance towards central and west and south India. Females and children migrates both long and short distance. No one has reported to migrate back to the place of origin of their ancestors. Migrant males work mostly as construction labourers and as factory workers whereas females and children work as domestic help and construction labourers. In about 37 cases either they haven't contacted their families in last six months or are not traceable. The families with single earning members are more likely to migrate. Burden of disease and the duration of sickness, abandonment and closure of plantation are closely related. Death tolls are likely to rise 1.5 times in sick tea gardens and three times in closed tea estates. Sixty percent of the people are malnourished in the sick tea gardens and more than eighty five per cent in abandoned and sick tea gardens.

Keywords: migration, trafficking, starvation death, tea garden workers

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Authors: Kudrat-E-Khuda Babu

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Rohingya refugees are the most marginalized and persecuted section of people in the world. The heinous brutality of Myanmar has forced the Muslim minority community to flee themselves to their neighboring country, Bangladesh for quite a few times now. The recent atrocity of the Buddhist country has added insult to injury on the existing crisis. In lieu of protection, the rights of the Rohingya community in Myanmar are being violated through exclusion from citizenship and steamroller of persecution. The mass influx of Rohingya refugees to Bangladesh basically took place in 1978, 1992, 2012, and 2017. At present, there are around one million Rohingyas staying at Teknaf, Ukhiya of Cox’s Bazar, the southern part of Bangladesh. The country, despite being a poverty-stricken one, has shown unprecedented generosity in sheltering the Rohingya people. For sheltering half of the total refugees in 2017, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina is now being regarded as the lighthouse of humanity or the mother of humanity. Though Bangladesh is not a ratifying state of the UN Refugee Convention, 1951 and its Additional Protocol, 1967, the country cannot escape its obligation under international human rights jurisprudence. Bangladesh is a party to eight human rights instruments out of nine core instruments, and thus, the country has an indirect obligation to protect and promote the rights of the refugees. Pressure from international bodies has also made Bangladesh bound to provide refuge to Rohingya people. Even though the demographic vulnerability and socio-economic condition of the country do not suggest taking over extra responsibility, the principle of non-refoulment as a part of customary international law reminds us to stay beside those persecuted or believed to have well-founded fear of persecution. In the case of HM Ershad v. Bangladesh and Others, 7 BLC (AD) 67, it was held that any international treaty or document after signing or ratification is not directly enforceable unless and until the parliament enacts a similar statute howsoever sweet the document is. As per Article 33(2) of the 1951 Refugee Convention, there are even exceptions for a state party in case of serious consequences like threat to national security, apprehension of serious crime and danger to safeguard state population. Bangladesh is now at a cross-road of human rights and national interest. The world community should come forward to resolve the crisis of the persecuted Rohingya people through repatriation, resettlement, and reintegration.

Keywords: Rohingya refugees, human rights, Bangladesh, Myanmar

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Authors: Drago Jakovčević, Maja Mihelja Žaja

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This paper provides an analysis of the insurance cycle in the Republic of Croatia and whether they are affected by catastrophic losses on a global level. In general, it is considered that insurance cycles are particularly pronounced in periods of financial crisis, but are also affected by the growing number of catastrophic losses. They cause the change of insurance cycle and premium growth and intensification and narrowing of the coverage conditions, so these variables move in the same direction and these phenomena point to a new cycle. The main goal of this paper is to determine the existence of insurance cycle in the Republic of Croatia and investigate whether catastrophic losses have an influence on insurance cycles.

Keywords: catastrophic loss, insurance cycle, premium, Republic of Croatia

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Authors: Ioannis N. Sergentanis, Stavroula Papadodima, Maria Tsellou, Dimitrios Vlachodimitropoulos, Sotirios Athanaselis, Chara Spiliopoulou

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Introduction: The aim of this study is the investigation of characteristics of suicide, as documented in autopsies during a five-year interval in the greater area of Attica, including the city of Athens. This could reveal possible protective or aggravating factors for suicide risk during a period strongly associated with the Greek debt crisis. Materials and Methods: Data was obtained following registration of suicide cases among autopsies performed in the Forensic Medicine and Toxicology Department, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece, during the time interval from January 2011 to December 2015. Anonymity and medical secret were respected. A series of demographic and social factors in addition to special characteristics of suicide were entered into a specially established pre-coded database. These factors include social data as well as psychiatric background and certain autopsy characteristics. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and Fisher’s exact test. The software used was STATA/SE 13 (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA). Results: A total of 162 cases were studied, 128 men and 34 women. Age ranged from 14 to 97 years old with an average of 53 years, presenting two peaks around 40 and 60 years. A 56% of cases were single/ divorced/ widowed. 25% of cases occurred during the weekend, and 66% of cases occurred in the house. A predominance of hanging as the leading method of suicide (41.4%) followed by jumping from a height (22.8%) and firearms (19.1%) was noted. Statistical analysis showed an association was found between suicide method and gender (P < 0.001, Fisher’s exact test); specifically, no woman used a firearm while only one man used medication overdose (against four women). Discussion: Greece has historically been one of the countries with the lowest suicide rates in Europe. Given a possible change in suicide trends during the financial crisis, further research seems necessary in order to establish risk factors. According to our study, suicide is more frequent in men who are not married, inside their house. Gender seems to be a factor affecting the method of suicide. These results seem in accordance with the international literature. Stronger than expected predominance in male suicide can be associated with failure to live up to social and family expectations for financial reasons.

Keywords: autopsy, Greece, risk factors, suicide

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Authors: Shorena Tsiklauri, Avtandil Sulaberidze, Nino Gomelauri

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In the years followed independence, an economic crisis and some conflicts led to the displacement of many people inside Georgia. The growing poverty, unemployment, low income and its unequal distribution limited access to basic social service have had a clear direct impact on Georgian population dynamics and its age-sex structure. Factors influencing the changing population age structure and urbanization include mortality, fertility, migration and expansion of urban. In this paper presents the main factors of changing the distribution by urban and rural areas. How different are the urban and rural age and sex structures? Does Georgia have the same age-sex structure among their urban and rural populations since 1950s?

Keywords: age and sex structure of population, georgia, migration, urban-rural population

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Authors: D. van der Merwe

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As the environment and associated media in which creativity is expressed transitions towards digital spaces, that same creativity undergoes a transition from individual to social forms of expression. This paper explores how the emerging social construction collectively called ‘The Metaverse’ will fundamentally alter creativity: by examining creativity as a social rather than individual process, as well as the mimetic logic underlying the platforms in which this creativity is expressed, a crisis in identity, commodification and social programming is revealed wherein the artist is more a commodity than their creations, resulting in prosthetic personalities pandering to an economic logic driven by biased algorithms. Consequently the very aura of the art and creative media produced within the digital domain must be re-assessed in terms of its cultural and exhibition value.

Keywords: aura, commodification, creativity, metaverse, mimesis, social programming

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Authors: Glenn A. Palmer, Lorenzo Bowman, Juanita Johnson-Bailey

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The ubiquitous economic upheaval that has gripped the global environment in the past few years displaced many workers through unemployment or underemployment. Globally, this disruption has caused many adult workers to seek additional education or skills to remain competitive, and acquire the ability and options to find gainful employment. While many learners have availed themselves of some opportunities to be retrained and retooled at locations within their communities, others have explored those options through the online learning environment. This paper examines the empirical research that explores the various strategies that are used in the adult online learning community that could also foster transformative learning.

Keywords: online learning, transformational learning, adult education, economic crisis, unemployment

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Authors: Mawong R., Bussracumpakorn C.

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Millions of young people around the world have been affected by COVID-19 to their psychological and social effects. Millennials’ stresses have been shaped by a few global issues, including climate change, political instability, and financial crisis. In particular, the spread of COVID-19 has become laying psychological and socioeconomic scars on them. When end-of-life planning turns into more widely discussed, the stigma and taboos around this issue are greatly lessened. End-of-life planning is defined as a future life plan, such as financial, legacy, funeral, and memorial planning. This plan would help millennials to discover the value and meaning of life. This study explores the attitudes of Thai Millennials toward end-of-life planning as a new normal awareness of life in order to initiate an innovative service concept to fit with their value and meaning. The study conducts an in-depth interview with 12 potential participants who have awareness or action on the plan. The framework of the customer journey map is used to analyze the responses to examine trigger points, barriers, beliefs, and expectations. The findings pointed to a service concept that is suggested for a new end-of-life planning service that is suited to Thai Millennials in 4 different groups, which are 1. Social -Conscious as a socially aware who to donate time and riches to make the world and society a better place, their end-of-life planning value is inspired by the social impact of giving something or some action that they will be able to do after life or during life which provides a variety of choice based on their preference to give to society, 2. Life Fulfillment who make a life goal for themselves and attempt to achieve it before the time comes to their value will be to inspire life value with a customized plan and provide guidance to suggest, 3. Prevention of the After-Death Effect who want to plan to avoid the effects of their death as patriarch, head of the family, and anchor of someone, so they want to have a plan that brings confidence and feel relief while they are still alive and they want to find some reliable service that they can leave the death will or asset, and 4. No Guilty Planning who plan for when they wish to be worry-free as a self-responsible they want to have the plan which is easy to understand and easy to access. The overall finding of the study is to understand the new service concept of end-of-life planning which to improve knowledge of significant life worth rather than death planning, encouraging people to reassess their lives in a positive way, leading to higher self-esteem and intrinsic motivation for this generation in this time of global crisis.

Keywords: design management, end-of-life planning, millennial generation, service design solution

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Authors: Jayanta Bora, Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

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Background: It is important for targeted interventions to consider vulnerabilities of female sex workers (FSWs) such as poverty, work-related mobility and literacy for effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. This paper examines the association between vulnerability and behavioural outcomes among FSWs in Thane district, Maharashtra under USAID PHFI-PIPPSE project. Methods: Data were used from the Behavioural Tracking Survey, a cross-sectional behavioural study conducted in 2015 with 503 FSWs randomly selected from 12 TI-NGOs which were functioning and providing services to FSWs in Thane district prior to April 2014 in Thane district of Maharashtra. We have created the “vulnerability index”, a composite index of literacy, factors of dependence (alternative livelihood options, current debt), and aspects of sex work (mobility and duration in sex work) as a dependent variable. The key independent measures used were program exposure to intervention, service uptake, self-confidence, and self-identity. Bi-variate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the study objectives. Results: A higher proportion of FSWs who were in the age-group 18–25 years from brothel/street /home/ lodge-based were categorized as highly vulnerable to HIV risk as compared to bar-based sex worker (74.1% versus 59.8%, P,0.002); regression analysis highlighted lower odds of vulnerability among FSWs who were aware of services and visited NGO clinic for medical check-up and counselling for STI [AOR= 0.092, 95% CI 0.018-0.460; P,0.004], However, lower odds of vulnerability on confident in supporting fellow sex worker in crisis [AOR= 0.601, 95% CI 0.476-0.758; P, 0.000] and were able to turn away clients when they refused to use a condom during sex [AOR= 0.524, 95% CI 0.342-0.802; P, 0.003]. Conclusion: The results highlight that FSWs associated with TIs and getting services are less vulnerable and highly empowered. As a result of behavioural change communication and other services provided by TIs, FSWs were able to successfully negotiate about condom use with their clients and manage solidarity in the crisis situation for fellow FSWs. Therefore, it is evident from study paper that TI prevention programs may transform the lives of masses considerably and may open a window of opportunity to infuse the information and awareness about HIV risk.

Keywords: female sex worker, HIV prevention, HIV service uptake, vulnerability

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Authors: Michaela Vašková

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The paper is focused on the application of the security audit method on the selected objects of the critical infrastructure. The emphasis is put on security audit method to find gaps in the critical infrastructure security. The theoretical part describes objects of the critical infrastructure. The practical part describes using the security audit method. The main emphasis was put on the protection of the critical infrastructure in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: crisis management, critical infrastructure, object of critical infrastructure, security audit, extraordinary event

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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In terms of its geopolitical position, Iran has been one of the main centers of migration movements in the world in recent decades. However, the policy makers' lack of preparation in completing the cycle of social integration of these immigrants, especially the second and third generation, has caused these people to always be prone to leave the country and immigrate to developed and industrialized countries. In this research, the issue of integration of immigrants in Iran from the perspective of four indicators, "Identity Documents", "Access to Banking Services", "Access to Health and Treatment Services" and "Obtaining a Driver's License" will be analyzed. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws and regulations related to immigrants' rights in Iran, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. The investigations of this study show that none of the residence documents of immigrants in Iran guarantee the full enjoyment of basic citizenship rights for them. In fact, the function of many of these identity documents, such as the census card, educational support card, etc., is only to prevent crossing the border, and none of them guarantee the basic rights of citizenship. Therefore, for many immigrants, the difference between legality and illegality is only in the risk of crossing the border, and this has led to the spread of the habit of illegal presence for them. Despite this, it seems that there is no clear and coherent policy framework around the issue of foreign immigrants in the country. This policy incoherence can be clearly seen in the diversity and plurality of identity and legal documents of the citizens present in the country and the policy maker's lack of planning to integrate and organize the identity of this huge group. Examining the differences and socioeconomic inequalities between immigrants and the native Iranian population shows that immigrants have been poorly integrated into the structures of Iranian society from an economic and social point of view.

Keywords: immigrants, social integration, citizen services, structural inequality

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Authors: Ben Tappin, Ryan McKay

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The political left and right appear to disagree not only over questions of value but, also, over questions of fact—over what is true “out there” in society and the world. Alarmingly, a large body of survey data collected during the past decade suggests that this disagreement tends to be greatest among the most educated and most cognitively sophisticated opposing partisans. In other words, the data show that these individuals display the widest political polarization in their reported factual beliefs. Explanations of this polarization pattern draw heavily on cultural and political factors; yet, the large majority of the evidence originates from one cultural and political context—the United States, a country with a rather unique cultural and political history. One consequence is that widening political polarization conditional on education and cognitive sophistication may be due to idiosyncratic cultural, political or historical factors endogenous to US society—rather than a more general, international phenomenon. We examined widening political polarization conditional on education across Europe, over a topic that is culturally and politically contested; immigration. To do so, we analyzed data from the European Social Survey, a premier survey of countries in and around the European area conducted biennially since 2002. Our main results are threefold. First, we see widening political polarization conditional on education over beliefs about the economic impact of immigration. The foremost countries showing this pattern are the most influential in Europe: Germany and France. However, we also see heterogeneity across countries, with some—such as Belgium—showing no evidence of such polarization. Second, we find that widening political polarization conditional on education is a product of sorting. That is, highly educated partisans exhibit stronger within-group consensus in their beliefs about immigration—the data do not support the view that the more educated partisans are more polarized simply because the less educated fail to adopt a position on the question. Third, and finally, we find some evidence that shocks to the political climate of countries in the European area—for example, the “refugee crisis” of summer 2015—were associated with a subsequent increase in political polarization over immigration conditional on education. The largest increase was observed in Germany, which was at the centre of the so-called refugee crisis in 2015. These results reveal numerous insights: they show that widening political polarization conditional on education is not restricted to the US or native English-speaking culture; that such polarization emerges in the domain of immigration; that it is a product of within-group consensus among the more educated; and, finally, that exogenous shocks to the political climate may be associated with subsequent increases in political polarization conditional on education.

Keywords: beliefs, Europe, immigration, political polarization

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Authors: S. Amanpour, F. Mohamadian, S. A. Tabatabai

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With the number of accidents and fatalities in recent years can be concluded that Iran is the status of road accidents, remains in a crisis. Investigate the causes of such incidents in all countries is a necessity. By doing this research, the results of the number and type of accidents and the location of the crash will be available. It is possible to prioritize economic and rational solutions to fix the flaws in the way of short-term the results are all the more strict rules about the desire to have black spots and cursory glance at the change of but results in long-term are desired to change the system or increase the width of the path or add extra track. In general, the relationship between the analysis of the accidents and near police statistics is the number of accidents in one year. This could prove the accuracy of the analysis done.

Keywords: traffic, IHSDM, crash, modeling, Khuzestan

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Authors: Talal Alqahtani

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For all institutions, either public or private, communication is important now more than ever. This is because the importance of communication has grown over the years, and it has the ability to either break or make an organization. With globalization, the changing technology, and other emergent issues that affect organizations, the communication given out has had to be better, sharper, and both proactive and reactive. This is the reason why the importance of public relations has been on the increase. Institutions realize the importance of having a good image and having public relations experts who can effectively manage communication in an institution easily in times of crisis. Public relations itself is not, however, effective, and this has led to the adoption of rhetoric in communication. Rhetoric use has had a long transformation because, in the past, it was only used in politics. Rhetoric in communication has come to be appreciated and adopted by many diverse fields and sectors. This study looks at the job of rhetoric in public relations practice and how it can identify with the administration of an institution's notoriety.

Keywords: communication, notoriety, rhetoric, public relation

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Authors: Mark Andrew

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Geopolitical tensions are at a thirty-year high, and the pace of technological innovation is driving asymmetry in force capabilities between nation states and between non-state actors. Technology futures are a vital component of defence capability growth, and investments in technology futures need to be informed by accurate and reliable forecasts of the options for ‘systems of systems’ innovation, development, and deployment. This paper describes a method for forecasting technology futures developed through an analysis of four key systems’ development stages, namely: technology domain categorisation, scanning results examining novel systems’ signals and signs, potential system-of systems’ implications in warfare theatres, and political ramifications in terms of funding and development priorities. The method has been applied to several technology domains, including physical systems (e.g., nano weapons, loitering munitions, inflight charging, and hypersonic missiles), biological systems (e.g., molecular virus weaponry, genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces, and trans-human augmentation), and information systems (e.g., sensor technologies supporting situation awareness, cyber-driven social attacks, and goal-specification challenges to proliferation and alliance testing). Although the current application of the method has been team-centred using paper-based rapid prototyping and iteration, the application of autonomous language models (such as GPT-3) is anticipated as a next-stage operating platform. The importance of forecasting accuracy and reliability is considered a vital element in guiding technology development to afford stronger contingencies as ideological changes are forecast to expand threats to ecology and earth systems, possibly eclipsing the traditional vulnerabilities of nation states. The early results from the method will be subjected to ground truthing using longitudinal investigation.

Keywords: forecasting, technology futures, uncertainty, complexity

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Authors: Edwin Dankano

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Evident by incessant and sporadic attacks on Nigerians poise a serious threat to the unity of Nigeria, and secondly, the single biggest security nightmare to confront Nigeria since after amalgamation of the Southern and Northern protectorates by the British colonialist in 1914 is “Boko Haram” a terrorist organization also known as “Jama’atul Ahli Sunnah Lidda’wati wal Jihad”, or “people committed to the propagation of the Prophet’s teachings and jihad”. The sect also upholds an ideology translated as “Western Education is forbidden”, or rejection of Western civilization and institutions. By some estimates, more than 5,500 people were killed in Boko Haram attacks in 2014, and Boko Haram attacks have already claimed hundreds of lives and territories {caliphates}in early 2015. In total, the group may have killed more than 10,000 people since its emergence in the early 2000s. More than 1 million Nigerians have been displaced internally by the violence, and Nigerian refugee figures in neighboring countries continue to rise. This paper is predicated on secondary sources of data and anchored on the Huntington’s theory of clash of civilization. As such, the paper argued that the rise of Boko Haram with its violent disposition against Western values is a counter response to Western civilization that is fast eclipsing other civilizations. The paper posits that the Boko Haram insurrection going by its teachings, and destruction of churches is a validation of the propagation of the sect as a religious revolt which has resulted in dire humanitarian situation in Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe states all in north eastern Nigeria as evident in human casualties, human right abuses, population displacement, refugee debacle, livelihood crisis, and public insecurity. The paper submits that the Nigerian state should muster the needed political will in terms of a viable anti-terrorism measures and build strong legitimate institutions that can adequately curb the menace of corruption that has engulfed the military hierarchy, respond proactively to the challenge of terrorism in Nigeria and should embrace a strategic paradigm shift from anti-terrorism to counter-terrorism as a strategy for containing the crisis that today threatens the secular status of Nigeria.

Keywords: Boko Haram, civilization, fundamentalism, Islam, religion revolt, terror

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Authors: Ilona Copik

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The aim of this study is to analyze the representation of memories of the forced displacement of Poles and Germans from the eastern territories in 1945 as depicted by Polish and German feature films between the years 1945-1960. The aftermath of World War II and the Allied agreements concluded at Yalta and Potsdam (1945) resulted in changes in national borders in Central and Eastern Europe and the large-scale transfer of civilians. The westward migration became a symbol of the new post-war division of Europe, new spheres of influence separated by the Iron Curtain. For years it was a controversial topic in both Poland and Germany due to the geopolitical alignment (the socialist East and capitalist West of Europe), as well as the unfinished debate between the victims and perpetrators of the war. The research premise is to take a comparative view of the conflicted cultures of Polish and German memory, to reflect on the possibility of an international dialogue about the past recorded in film images, and to discover the potential of film as a narrative warning against totalitarian inclinations. Until now, films made between 1945 and 1960 in Poland and the German occupation zones have been analyzed mainly in the context of artistic strategies subordinated to ideology and historical politics. In this study, the intention is to take a critical approach leading to the recognition of how films work as collective memory media, how they reveal the mechanisms of memory/forgetting, and what settlement topoi and migration myths they contain. The main hypothesis is that feature films about forced displacement, in addition to the politics of history - separate in each country - reveal comparable transnational individual experiences: the chaos of migration, the trauma of losing one's home, the conflicts accompanying the familiar/foreign, the difficulty of cultural adaptation, the problem of lost identity, etc.

Keywords: forced displacement, Polish and German cinema, war victims, World War II

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Authors: Samuel O. Oduyela

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Over the last ten years, many studies have examined the media coverage of terrorism across the world. Nevertheless, most of these studies have been inclined to the western narrative, more so in relation to the international media. This study departs from that partiality to explore the Nigerian press and its coverage of the Boko Haram. The study intends to illustrate how the Nigerian press has reported its homegrown terrorism within its borders. On 14 April 2014, the Shekau-led Boko Haram kidnapped over 200 female students from Chibok in the Borno State. This study analyses a structured sample of news stories, feature articles, editorial comments, and opinions from the Nation newspaper. The study examined the representation of the Chibok girls kidnaps by concentrating on four main viewpoints. The news framing of the Chibok girls’ kidnap under Presidents Goodluck Jonathan (2014) and Mohammadu Buhari (2016-2018), the sourcing model present in the news reporting of the kidnap and the challenges Nation reporters face in reporting Boko Haram. The study adopted the use of qualitative news framing analysis to provide further insights into significant developments established from the examination of news contents. The study found that the news reportage mainly focused on the government response to Chibok girls kidnap, international press and Boko Haram. Boko Haram was also framed, as a political conspiracy, as prevailing, and as instilling fear. Political, and economic influence appeared to be a significant determinant of the reportage. The study found that the Nation newspaper's portrayal of the crisis under President Jonathan differed significantly from under President Buhari. While the newspaper framed the action of President Jonathan as lacklustre, dismissive, and confusing, it was less critical of President Buhari's government's handling of the crisis. The Nation newspaper failed to promote or explore non-violent approaches. News reports of the kidnap, thus, were presented mainly from a political and ethnoreligious perspective. The study also raised questions of what roles should journalists play in covering conflicts? Should they merely report comments on and interpret it, or should they be actors in the resolution or, more importantly, the prevention of conflicts? The study underlined the need for the independence of the media, more training for journalists to advance a more nuanced and conflict-sensitive news coverage in the Nigerian context.

Keywords: boko haram, chibok girls kidnap, conflict in nigeria, media framing

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Authors: Shougi Suliman Abosuliman, Arun Kumar, Firoz Alam

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Disaster preparedness is a key success factor for any effective disaster management practices. This paper evaluates the disaster preparedness and management in Saudi Arabia using an empirical investigation approach. It presents the results of the survey conducted by interviewing representatives of the Saudi decision-makers and administrators responsible for disaster control in Jeddah before, during and after flooding in 2009 and 2010. First, demographics of the respondents are presented, followed by quantitative analysis of their views and experiences regarding the Kingdom’s readiness before and after each flood. This is shown as a series of dependent and independent variables. Following this is a list of respondents’ priorities for disaster preparation in the Kingdom.

Keywords: disaster response policy, crisis management, effective service delivery, Jeddah

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Authors: Andrea Knezevic, Padmini Pai, Julaine Allan, Katarzyna Olcoń, Louisa Smith

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Healthcare staff are on the frontline during times of disaster and are required to support the health and wellbeing of communities despite any personal adversity and trauma they are experiencing as a result of the disaster. This study explored the experiences of healthcare staff trained as ‘Wellness Warriors’ following the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires. The findings indicated that healthcare staff developed interpersonal skills around deep listening and connecting with others which allowed them to feel differently about work and restored their faith in healthcare leadership.

Keywords: Australian bushfires, burnout, health care providers, mental health, occupational trauma, post-disaster, wellbeing, workplace wellness

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Authors: Amira Kaddour

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To curb the problem of liquidity in times of financial crises, two cases arise; the Bailout or Bailin, two opposite choices that elicit the analysis of their effect on moral hazard. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the effect of these two types of events on the behavior of investors. For this end, we use the Emerging Market Bonds Index (EMBI-JP Morgan), and its excess of return, to detect the change in the risk premia through a Markov switching model. The results showed the transition to two types of regime and an effect on moral hazard; Bailout is an incentive of moral hazard, Bailin effectiveness remains subject of credibility.

Keywords: Bailout, Bailin, Moral hazard, financial crisis, Markov switching

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Authors: Kurt Willems

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The right to education is a fundamental human right, which has been entrenched in many international and regional treaties and national constitutions. Nevertheless, practice shows that many obstacles impede easy access to quality education for refugees. Overall, the material effects of international human rights legislation on improving (irregular) migrants’ access to social rights in the European countries have remained limited due to the lack of guarantees on effective incorporation in the municipal legal order and due to the lack of effective enforcement mechanisms. After the recent refugee crisis in Europe, this issue has grown in importance. The presentation aims to give a brief overview of the most important issues impeding the effective enforceability of the right to education for refugees. I. Do refugees fall within the scope of application of the relevant human rights treaties and to which extent can they invoke human rights treaties in domestic courts to set aside domestic legislation? II. How is the justiciability of the right to education organized in those treaties? III. What is the legal answer to questions raised in practice when dealing with the influx of refugees in Europe: (i) can refugees be placed in separate schools or classes until they can follow the regular curriculum?; (ii) can higher school fees be asked from pupils without legal documents?; (iii) do refugees have a right to be taught in their own native language until they learn to speak the national language? To answer the above questions, the doctrinal and comparative legal method will be used. The normative framework, as interpreted within Europe, will be distilled from the recent and relevant international treaties and European law instruments (in particular the Convention on the Rights of the Child, the European Convention on human rights, the European Social Charter and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights) and their underlying policy documents, the legal literature, the (limited) European jurisprudence, and the general comments to those treaties. The article is mainly descriptive in nature. Its aim is to serve as a summary of the legal provisions, case law and legal literature on the topic of the right to education for refugees. The research shows that the reasons for the delicate enforceability of the rights to and the rights in education are multifold. The research will categorize the different contributing factors under the following headings: (i) problems related to the justiciability of international law as such; (ii) problems specifically related to the educational field; (iii) problems related to policy issues in the refugee debate. By categorizing the reasons contributing to the difficult enforceability of the right to education and the rights in education for refugees, this research hopes to facilitate the search for solutions to this delicate problem.

Keywords: right to education, refugees, discrimination, enforceability of human rights

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Authors: Riddhi Chopra

Abstract:

While China’s friendship with a number of countries has waxed and waned over the decades, Sino-Pak relationship is said to have withstood the vicissitudes of larger international politics as well as changes in regional and domestic currents. Pakistan, one of the first countries to recognize the People’s Republic of China, thus providing China with a corridor into the energy rich Muslim states which was reciprocated with a continual stream of no-strings-attached military hardware and defense-related assistance from Beijing. The joint enmity towards India also provided the initial thrust to a burgeoning Sino-Pak friendship. This paper intends to provide a profound analysis of the strategic relation between China-Pakistan and examine India as a determining factor. The Pakistan-China strategic relationship has been conventionally viewed by India as a zero sum game, wherein any gains accrued by Pakistan or China through their partnership is seen as a direct detriment to the evolution of India-Pakistan or India-China relation. The paper evaluates various factors which were crucial for the synthesis of such a strong relation and presents a comprehensive study of the various policies and programs that have been undertaken by the two countries to tie India to South Asia and reduce its sphere of influence. The geographic dynamics is said to breed a natural coalition, dominating the strategic ambitions of both Beijing and Islamabad hence directing their relationship. In addition to the obvious geopolitical factors, there are several dense collaborations between the two nations knitting a relatively close partnership. Moreover, an attempt has been made to assess the irritants in China-Pak relations and the initiatives taken by the two to further strengthen it. Current trends in diplomatic, economic and defense cooperation – along with the staunch affinity rooted in history and consistent geo-strategic interests – points to a strong and strengthening relationship, significant in directing India’s foreign and security policies. This paper seeks to analyze the changing power dynamics of the China-Pak nexus with external actors such as US and India with an ulterior motive of their own and predict the change in power dynamics between the four countries.

Keywords: China, Pakistan, India, strategy

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Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

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This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

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Authors: Víctor Manuel Muñoz-Sánchez, Antonio Manuel Pérez-Flores

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This paper analyzes the institutionalization of social protest in Spain. In the current crisis Podemos party seems to represent the political positions of the most affected citizens by the economic situation. It studies using quantitative techniques (statistical bivariate analysis), focusing on the exploitation of several bases of statistics data from the Center for Sociological and Research of Spanish Government, 15M movement characterization to its institutionalization in the Podemos party. Making a comparison between the participant's profile by the 15M and the social bases of Podemos votes. Data on the transformation of the socio-demographic profile of the fans, connoisseurs and 15M participants and voters are given.

Keywords: collective action, emerging parties, political parties, social protest

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