Search results for: crime rates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3218

Search results for: crime rates

2738 Empirical Prediction of the Effect of Rain Drops on Dbs System Operating in Ku-Band (Case Study of Abuja)

Authors: Tonga Agadi Danladi, Ajao Wasiu Bamidele, Terdue Dyeko

Abstract:

Recent advancement in microwave communications technologies especially in telecommunications and broadcasting have resulted in congestion on the frequencies below 10GHz. This has forced microwave designers to look for high frequencies. Unfortunately for frequencies greater than 10GHz rain becomes one of the main factors of attenuation in signal strength. At frequencies from 10GHz upwards, rain drop sizes leads to outages that compromises the availability and quality of service this making it a critical factor in satellite link budget design. Rain rate and rain attenuation predictions are vital steps to be considered when designing microwave satellite communication link operating at Ku-band frequencies (112-18GHz). Unreliable rain rates data in the tropical regions of the world like Nigeria from radio communication group of the international Telecommunication Union (ITU-R) makes it difficult for microwave engineers to determine a realistic rain margin that needs to be accommodated in satellite link budget design in such region. This work presents an empirical tool for predicting the amount of signal due to rain on DBS signal operating at the Ku-band.

Keywords: attenuation, Ku-Band, microwave communication, rain rates

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2737 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries

Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

Abstract:

Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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2736 Exploring the Potential of Chatbots in Higher Education: A Preliminary Study

Authors: S. Studente, S. Ellis, S. F. Garivaldis

Abstract:

We report upon a study introducing a chatbot to develop learning communities at a London University, with a largely international student base. The focus of the chatbot was twofold; to ease the transition for students into their first year of university study, and to increase study engagement. Four learning communities were created using the chatbot; level 3 foundation, level 4 undergraduate, level 6 undergraduate and level 7 post-graduate. Students and programme leaders were provided with access to the chat bot via mobile app prior to their study induction and throughout the autumn term of 2019. At the end of the term, data were collected via questionnaires and focus groups with students and teaching staff to allow for identification of benefits and challenges. Findings indicated a positive correlation between study engagement and engagement with peers. Students reported that the chatbot enabled them to obtain support and connect to their programme leader. Both staff and students also made recommendation on how engagement could be further enhanced using the bot in terms of; clearly specified purpose, integration with existing university systems, leading by example and connectivity. Extending upon these recommendations, a second pilot study is planned for September 2020, for which the focus will be upon improving attendance rates, student satisfaction and module pass rates.

Keywords: chatbot, e-learning, learning communities, student engagement

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2735 Enhanced Decolourization and Biodegradation of Textile Azo and Xanthene Dyes by Using Bacterial Isolates

Authors: Gimhani Madhushika Hewayalage, Thilini Ariyadasa, Sanja Gunawardena

Abstract:

In Sri Lanka, the largest contribution for the industrial export earnings is governed by textile and apparel industry. However, this industry generates huge quantities of effluent consists of unfixed dyes which enhance the effluent colour and toxicity thereby leading towards environmental pollution. Therefore, the effluent should properly be treated prior to the release into the environment. The biological technique has now captured much attention as an environmental-friendly and cost-competitive effluent decolourization method due to the drawbacks of physical and chemical treatment techniques. The present study has focused on identifying dye decolourizing potential of several bacterial isolates obtained from the effluent of the local textile industry. Yellow EXF, Red EXF, Blue EXF, Nova Black WNN and Nylosan-Rhodamine-EB dyes have been selected for the study to represent different chromophore groups such as Azo and Xanthene. The rates of decolorization of each dye have been investigated by employing distinct bacterial isolates. Bacterial isolate which exhibited effective dye decolorizing potential was identified as Proteus mirabilis using 16S rRNA gene sequencing analysis. The high decolorizing rates of identified bacterial strain indicate its potential applicability in the treatment of dye-containing wastewaters.

Keywords: azo, bacterial, biological, decolourization, xanthene

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2734 Human Resource Development and Social Entrepreneurship: A Pan-African Perspective

Authors: Leon C. Prieto, Simone T. A. Phipps

Abstract:

There is a need to promote social entrepreneurship in order to solve some of the complex problems facing various countries in Africa (poverty, unemployment, crime, HIV, etc.). For example, one possible consequence of the HIV/AIDS crisis in Zimbabwe and elsewhere is a deterioration in the educational opportunities for orphans and other vulnerable children. Given that high returns are associated with education, the loss of education for a large segment of the population would likely worsen the already dire economic consequences of the HIV/AIDS crisis. Using a systems approach, this paper argues that social entrepreneurship can be used as a vehicle to promote national human resource development, which will assist in the alleviation of societal ills on the national level as well as throughout Africa.

Keywords: human resource development, pan-african, social entrepreneurship, social enterprise

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2733 Understanding Strategic Engagement on the Conversation Table: Countering Terrorism in Nigeria

Authors: Anisah Ari

Abstract:

Effects of organized crime permeate all facets of life, including public health, socio-economic endeavors, and human security. If any element of this is affected, it impacts large-scale national and global interest. Seeking to address terrorist networks through technical thinking is like trying to kill a weed by just cutting off its branches. It will re-develop and expand in proportions beyond one’s imagination, even in horrific ways that threaten human security. The continent of Africa has been bedeviled by this menace, with little or no solution to the problem. Nigeria is dealing with a protracted insurgency that is perpetrated by a sect against any form of westernization. Reimagining approaches to dealing with pressing issues like terrorism may require engaging the right set of people in the conversation for any sustainable change. These are people who have lived through the daily effects of the violence that ensues from the activities of terrorist activities. Effective leadership is required for an inclusive process, where spaces are created for diverse voices to be heard, and multiple perspectives are listened to, and not just heard, that supports a determination of the realistic outcome. Addressing insurgency in Nigeria has experienced a lot of disinformation and uncertainty. This may be in part due to poor leadership or an iteration of technical solutions to adaptive challenge peacemaking efforts in Nigeria has focused on behaviors, attitudes and practices that contribute to violence. However, it is important to consider the underlying issues that build-up, ignite and fan the flames of violence—looking at conflict as a complex system, issues like climate change, low employment rates, corruption and the impunity of discrimination due to ethnicity and religion. This article will be looking at an option of the more relational way of addressing insurgency through adaptive approaches that embody engagement and solutions with the people rather than for the people. The construction of a local turn in peacebuilding is informed by the need to create a locally driven and sustained peace process that embodies the culture and practices of the people in enacting an everyday peace beyond just a perennial and universalist outlook. A critical analysis that explores the socially identified individuals and situations will be made, considering the more adaptive approach to a complex existential challenge rather than a universalist frame. Case Study and Ethnographic research approach to understand what other scholars have documented on the matter and also a first-hand understanding of the experiences and viewpoints of the participants.

Keywords: terrorism, adaptive, peace, culture

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2732 Effects of School Facilities’ Mechanical and Plumbing Characteristics and Conditions on Student Attendance, Academic Performance and Health

Authors: Erica Cochran Hameen, Bobuchi Ken-Opurum, Shalini Priyadarshini, Berangere Lartigue, Sadhana Anath-Pisipati

Abstract:

School districts throughout the United States are constantly seeking measures to improve test scores, reduce school absenteeism and improve indoor environmental quality. It is imperative to identify key building investments which will provide the largest benefits to schools in terms of improving the aforementioned factors. This study uses Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tests to statistically evaluate the impact of a school building’s mechanical and plumbing characteristics on a child’s educational performance. The educational performance is measured via three indicators, i.e. test scores, suspensions, and absenteeism. The study investigated 125 New York City school facilities to determine the potential correlations between 50 mechanical and plumbing variables and the performance indicators. Key findings from the tests revealed that elementary schools with pneumatic systems in “good” condition have 48.8% lower percentages of students scoring at the minimum English Language Arts (ELA) competency level compared with those with no pneumatic system. Additionally, elementary schools with “unit heaters/cabinet heaters” in “good to fair” conditions have 1.1% higher attendance rates compared to schools with no “unit heaters/cabinet heaters” or those in inferior condition. Furthermore, elementary schools with air conditioning have 0.6% higher attendance rates compared to schools with no air conditioning, and those with interior floor drains in “good” condition have 1.8% higher attendance rates compared to schools with interior drains in inferior condition.

Keywords: academic attendance and performance, mechanical and plumbing systems, schools, student health

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2731 Comparison between Torsional Ultrasonic Assisted Drilling and Conventional Drilling of Bone: An in vitro Study

Authors: Nikoo Soleimani

Abstract:

Background: Reducing torque during bone drilling is one of the effective factors in reaching to an optimal drilling process. Methods: 15 bovine femurs were drilled in vitro with a drill bit with a diameter of 4 mm using two methods of torsional ultrasonic assisted drilling (T-UAD) and convent conventional drilling (CD) and the effects of changing the feed rate and rotational speed on the torque were compared in both methods. Results: There was no significant difference in the thrust force measured in both methods due to the direction of vibrations. Results showed that using T-UAD method for bone drilling at feed rates of 0.16, 0.24 and 0.32 mm/rev led for all rotational speeds to a decrease of at least 16.3% in torque compared to the CD method. Further, using T-UAD at rotational speeds of 355~1000 rpm with various feed rates resulted in a torque reduction of 16.3~50.5% compared to CD method. Conclusions: Reducing the feed rate and increasing the rotational speed, except for the rotational speed of 500 rpm and a feed rate of 0.32 mm/rev, resulted generally in torque reduction in both methods. However, T-UAD is a more effective and desirable option for bone drilling considering its significant torque reduction.

Keywords: torsional ultrasonic assisted drilling, torque, bone drilling, rotational speed, feed rate

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2730 Trends in All-Cause Mortality and Inpatient and Outpatient Visits for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Population-Based Study

Authors: Tetyana Kendzerska, David T. Zhu, Michael Pugliese, Douglas Manuel, Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Marcus Povitz, Therese A. Stukel, Teresa To, Shawn D. Aaron, Sunita Mulpuru, Melanie Chin, Claire E. Kendall, Kednapa Thavorn, Rebecca Robillard, Andrea S. Gershon

Abstract:

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) remains unknown. To compare observed and expected (projected based on previous years) trends in all-cause mortality and healthcare use for ACSCs in the first year of the pandemic (March 2020 - March 2021). A population-based study using provincial health administrative data.General adult population (Ontario, Canada). Monthly all-cause mortality, and hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) and outpatient visit rates (per 100,000 people at-risk) for seven combined ACSCs (asthma, COPD, angina, congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy) during the first year were compared with similar periods in previous years (2016-2019) by fitting monthly time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models. Compared to previous years, all-cause mortality rates increased at the beginning of the pandemic (observed rate in March-May 2020 of 79.98 vs. projected of 71.24 [66.35-76.50]) and then returned to expected in June 2020—except among immigrants and people with mental health conditions where they remained elevated. Hospitalization and ED visit rates for ACSCs remained lower than projected throughout the first year: observed hospitalization rate of 37.29 vs. projected of 52.07 (47.84-56.68); observed ED visit rate of 92.55 vs. projected of 134.72 (124.89-145.33). ACSC outpatient visit rates decreased initially (observed rate of 4,299.57 vs. projected of 5,060.23 [4,712.64-5,433.46]) and then returned to expected in June 2020. Reductions in outpatient visits for ACSCs at the beginning of the pandemic combined with reduced hospital admissions may have been associated with temporally increased mortality—disproportionately experienced by immigrants and those with mental health conditions. The Ottawa Hospital Academic Medical Organization

Keywords: COVID-19, chronic disease, all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, outpatient visits, modelling, population-based study, asthma, COPD, angina, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, epilepsy

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2729 Change of Endocrine and Exocrine Insufficiency on Non-Diabetes Patients after Distal Pancreatectomy: A Nationwide Database Study

Authors: Jin-Ming Wu, Te-Wei Ho, Yu-Wen Tien

Abstract:

Background: The aim of this population-based study was to determine the occurrence of diabetes and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies (EPI) on non-diabetes subjects receiving distal pancreatectomy (DP). Method: A nationwide cohort study between 2000 and 2010 was collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Among 3264 DP patients, we identified 1410 non-diabetes and 966 non-diabetes non-EPI. Results. Of 1410 non-diabetes DP subjects, 312 patients (22.1%) developed newly-diagnosed diabetes after PD. On a multiple logistic regression model, co-morbid hyperlipidemia (odds ratio, 1.640; 95% CI, 1.362–2.763; P < 0.001) and pancreatitis (odds ratio, 2.428; 95% CI, 1.889–3.121; P < 0.001) significantly contributed to higher incidences of diabetes after DP. Moreover, 380 subjects (39.3%) developed EPI, and pancreatic cancer is the statistically significant risk factor (odds ratio, 4.663; 95% CI, 2.108–6.085; P < 0.001). Conclusion: The patients with co-morbid hyperlipidemia and chronic pancreatitis had higher rates of newly-diagnosed diabetes after DP, moreover, pancreatic cancer subjects had higher rates of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency after DP. The clinicians should be alert to follow up glucose metabolism and clinical symptoms of fat intolerance for DP patients.

Keywords: distal pancreatectomy, National database, diabetes, exocrine insufficiency

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2728 On Cold Roll Bonding of Polymeric Films

Authors: Nikhil Padhye

Abstract:

Recently a new phenomenon for bonding of polymeric films in solid-state, at ambient temperatures well below the glass transition temperature of the polymer, has been reported. This is achieved by bulk plastic compression of polymeric films held in contact. Here we analyze the process of cold-rolling of polymeric films via finite element simulations and illustrate a flexible and modular experimental rolling-apparatus that can achieve bonding of polymeric films through cold-rolling. Firstly, the classical theory of rolling a rigid-plastic thin-strip is utilized to estimate various deformation fields such as strain-rates, velocities, loads etc. in rolling the polymeric films at the specified feed-rates and desired levels of thickness-reduction(s). Predicted magnitudes of slow strain-rates, particularly at ambient temperatures during rolling, and moderate levels of plastic deformation (at which Bauschinger effect can be neglected for the particular class of polymeric materials studied here), greatly simplifies the task of material modeling and allows us to deploy a computationally efficient, yet accurate, finite deformation rate-independent elastic-plastic material behavior model (with inclusion of isotropic-hardening) for analyzing the rolling of these polymeric films. The interfacial behavior between the roller and polymer surfaces is modeled using Coulombic friction; consistent with the rate-independent behavior. The finite deformation elastic-plastic material behavior based on (i) the additive decomposition of stretching tensor (D = De + Dp, i.e. a hypoelastic formulation) with incrementally objective time integration and, (ii) multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient (F = FeFp) into elastic and plastic parts, are programmed and carried out for cold-rolling within ABAQUS Explicit. Predictions from both the formulations, i.e., hypoelastic and multiplicative decomposition, exhibit a close match. We find that no specialized hyperlastic/visco-plastic model is required to describe the behavior of the blend of polymeric films, under the conditions described here, thereby speeding up the computation process .

Keywords: Polymer Plasticity, Bonding, Deformation Induced Mobility, Rolling

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2727 Competition and Cooperation of Prosumers in Cournot Games with Uncertainty

Authors: Yong-Heng Shi, Peng Hao, Bai-Chen Xie

Abstract:

Solar prosumers are playing increasingly prominent roles in the power system. However, its uncertainty affects the outcomes and functions of the power market, especially in the asymmetric information environment. Therefore, an important issue is how to take effective measures to reduce the impact of uncertainty on market equilibrium. We propose a two-level stochastic differential game model to explore the Cournot decision problem of prosumers. In particular, we study the impact of punishment and cooperation mechanisms on the efficiency of the Cournot game in which prosumers face uncertainty. The results show that under the penalty mechanism of fixed and variable rates, producers and consumers tend to take conservative actions to hedge risks, and the variable rates mechanism is more reasonable. Compared with non-cooperative situations, prosumers can improve the efficiency of the game through cooperation, which we attribute to the superposition of market power and uncertainty reduction. In addition, the market environment of asymmetric information intensifies the role of uncertainty. It reduces social welfare but increases the income of prosumers. For regulators, promoting alliances is an effective measure to realize the integration, optimization, and stable grid connection of producers and consumers.

Keywords: Cournot games, power market, uncertainty, prosumer cooperation

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2726 Impact of Nitrogen Fertilization on Soil Respiration and Net Ecosystem Production in Maize

Authors: Shirley Lamptey, Lingling Li, Junhong Xie

Abstract:

Agriculture in the semi-arid is often challenged by overuse of N, inadequate soil water, and heavy carbon emissions thereby threatening sustainability. Field experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of nitrogen fertilization levels (0-N₀, 100-N₁₀₀, 200-N₂₀₀, and 300 kg ha⁻¹-N₃₀₀) on soil water dynamics, soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP), and biomass yield. Zero nitrogen soils decreased Rs by 23% and 16% compared to N₃₀₀ and N₂₀₀ soils, respectively. However, biomass yield was greatest under N₃₀₀ compared with N₀, which therefore translated into increased net primary production (NPP) by 89% and NEP by 101% compared to N₀. To a lesser extent, N₂₀₀ increased net primary production by 69% and net ecosystem production by 79% compared to N₀. Grain yields were greatest under N₃₀₀ compared with N₁₀₀ and N₀, which therefore translated into increased carbon emission efficiency (CEE) by 53%, 39% and 3% under N₃₀₀ compared to N₀, N₁₀₀, and N₂₀₀ treatments respectively. Under the conditions of this study, crop yield and CEE may be optimized at nitrogen application rates in the range of 200-300 kg ha⁻¹. Based on these results, there appears potential for 200 kg N ha⁻¹ to be used to improve yield and increase CEE in the context of the rainfall-limiting environment.

Keywords: carbon emission, carbon emission efficiency, C sequestration, N rates, semi-arid

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2725 The Effects of Microstructure of Directionally Solidified Al-Si-Fe Alloys on Micro Hardness, Tensile Strength, and Electrical Resistivity

Authors: Sevda Engin, Ugur Buyuk, Necmettin Marasli

Abstract:

Directional solidification of eutectic alloys attracts considerable attention because of microhardness, tensile strength, and electrical resistivity influenced by eutectic structures. In this research, we examined processing of Al–Si–Fe (Al–11.7wt.%Si–1wt.%Fe) eutectic by directional solidification. The alloy was prepared by vacuum furnace and directionally solidified in Bridgman-type equipment. During the directional solidification process, the growth rates utilized varied from 8.25 m/s to 164.80 m/s. The Al–Si–Fe system showed an eutectic transformation, which resulted in the matrix Al, Si and Al5SiFe plate phases. The eutectic spacing between (λ_Si-λ_Si, λ_(Al_5 SiFe)-λ_(Al_5 SiFe)) was measured. Additionally, the microhardness, tensile strength, and electrical resistivity of the alloy were determined using directionally solidified samples. The effects of growth rates on microhardness, tensile strength, and electrical resistivity for directionally solidified Al–Si–Fe eutectic alloy were investigated, and the relationships between them were experimentally obtained. It was found that the microhardness, tensile strength, and electrical resistivity were affected by both eutectic spacing and the solidification parameter.

Keywords: directional solidification, aluminum alloy, microstructure, electrical properties, tensile test, hardness test

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2724 Criminal Law and Internet of Things: Challenges and Threats

Authors: Celina Nowak

Abstract:

The development of information and communication technologies (ICT) and a consequent growth of cyberspace have become a reality of modern societies. The newest addition to this complex structure has been Internet of Things which is due to the appearance of smart devices. IoT creates a new dimension of the network, as the communication is no longer the domain of just humans, but has also become possible between devices themselves. The possibility of communication between devices, devoid of human intervention and real-time supervision, generated new societal and legal challenges. Some of them may and certainly will eventually be connected to criminal law. Legislators both on national and international level have been struggling to cope with this technologically evolving environment in order to address new threats created by the ICT. There are legal instruments on cybercrime, however imperfect and not of universal scope, sometimes referring to specific types of prohibited behaviors undertaken by criminals, such as money laundering, sex offences. However, the criminal law seems largely not prepared to the challenges which may arise because of the development of IoT. This is largely due to the fact that criminal law, both on national and international level, is still based on the concept of perpetration of an offence by a human being. This is a traditional approach, historically and factually justified. Over time, some legal systems have developed or accepted the possibility of commission of an offence by a corporation, a legal person. This is in fact a legal fiction, as a legal person cannot commit an offence as such, it needs humans to actually behave in a certain way on its behalf. Yet, the legislators have come to understand that corporations have their own interests and may benefit from crime – and therefore need to be penalized. This realization however has not been welcome by all states and still give rise to doubts of ontological and theoretical nature in many legal systems. For this reason, in many legislations the liability of legal persons for commission of an offence has not been recognized as criminal responsibility. With the technological progress and the growing use of IoT the discussions referring to criminal responsibility of corporations seem rather inadequate. The world is now facing new challenges and new threats related to the ‘smart’ things. They will have to be eventually addressed by legislators if they want to, as they should, to keep up with the pace of technological and societal evolution. This will however require a reevaluation and possibly restructuring of the most fundamental notions of modern criminal law, such as perpetration, guilt, participation in crime. It remains unclear at this point what norms and legal concepts will be and may be established. The main goal of the research is to point out to the challenges ahead of the national and international legislators in the said context and to attempt to formulate some indications as to the directions of changes, having in mind serious threats related to privacy and security related to the use of IoT.

Keywords: criminal law, internet of things, privacy, security threats

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2723 Prediction of Metals Available to Maize Seedlings in Crude Oil Contaminated Soil

Authors: Stella O. Olubodun, George E. Eriyamremu

Abstract:

The study assessed the effect of crude oil applied at rates, 0, 2, 5, and 10% on the fractional chemical forms and availability of some metals in soils from Usen, Edo State, with no known crude oil contamination and soil from a crude oil spill site in Ubeji, Delta State, Nigeria. Three methods were used to determine the bioavailability of metals in the soils: maize (Zea mays) plant, EDTA and BCR sequential extraction. The sequential extract acid soluble fraction of the BCR extraction (most labile fraction of the soils, normally associated with bioavailability) were compared with total metal concentration in maize seedlings as a means to compare the chemical and biological measures of bioavailability. Total Fe was higher in comparison to other metals for the crude oil contaminated soils. The metal concentrations were below the limits of 4.7% Fe, 190mg/kg Cu and 720mg/kg Zn intervention values and 36mg/kg Cu and 140mg/kg Zn target values for soils provided by the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) guidelines. The concentration of the metals in maize seedlings increased with increasing rates of crude oil contamination. Comparison of the metal concentrations in maize seedlings with EDTA extractable concentrations showed that EDTA extracted more metals than maize plant.

Keywords: availability, crude oil contamination, EDTA, maize, metals

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2722 Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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2721 Effect of Demineralized Water Purity on the Corrosion Behavior of Steel Alloys

Authors: A. M. El-Aziz, M. Elsehamy, H. Hussein

Abstract:

Steel or stainless steel have reasonable corrosion behavior in water, their corrosion resistance is significantly dependent on the water purity. It was not expected that demineralized water has an aggressive effect on steel alloys, in this study, the effect of water with different purity on steel X52 and stainless steel 316L was investigated. Weight loss and electrochemical measurements were employed to measure the corrosion behavior. Samples were microscopically investigated after test. It was observed that the higher the water purity the more reactive it is. Comparative analysis of the potentiodynamic curves for different water purity showed the aggressiveness of the demineralised water (conductivity of 0.05 microSiemens per cm) over the distilled water. Whereas, the corrosion rates of stainless steel 858 and 623 nm/y for demi and distilled water respectively. On the other hand, the corrosion rates of carbon steel x52 were estimated about 4.8 and 3.6 µm/y for demi and distilled water, respectively. Open circuit potential (OCP) recorded more positive potentials in case of stainless steel than carbon steel in different water purities. Generally, stainless steel illustrated high pitting resistance than carbon steel alloy, the surface film was investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). This behavior was explained based on that demi and distilled water might be considered as ‘hungry water’ in which it wants to be in equilibrium and will pull ions out of the surrounding metals trying to satisfy its ‘hunger’.

Keywords: corrosion, demineralized water, distilled water, steel alloys

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2720 Enquiry into Psychological and Psychosocial Aspects in Cancer Care: Cancer Diseases Hospital, Zambia

Authors: Mubita Namuyamba

Abstract:

Despite an increase in the number of cancer programs and partnerships in cancer care provision, the burden of cancer in Zambia is increasingly having a significant impact on morbidity and mortality rates. The increase in cancer morbidity and mortality rates has given rise to psychological and psycho social implications (PPsI) in cancer care. Cancer patients, care givers and health care providers are faced with a multitude of PPsIs in cancer care that mainly impact negatively on the management of cancer patients. The study adopted a case study design and was purposively conducted at the Cancer Diseases Hospital in Lusaka (Zambia) after obtaining ethical clearance from the Ethics committee. The sample for this study included 70 cancer patients, 20 care givers and 5 hospital staff (4 nurses and 1 doctor). Data was collected using interviews guides, focus group discussion guides and questionnaires respectively. The qualitative data was analysed thematically. The various psychological and psychosocial challenges that conspire to deter the provision of effective cancer care nursing and improved methods of minimizing the psychological and psychosocial implications in cancer care are the products of this study.

Keywords: case study, enquiry, psychological and psycho social aspects, Zambia

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2719 Child Mortality in Portuguese Speaking Africa Countries: Levels and Trends, 1975-2021

Authors: Alcino Panguana

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All Portuguese-speaking African countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has high infant mortality rates, being responsible for 49.6% of deaths in Portuguese-speaking African countries, Angola has levels of infant mortality among children, where 2017, 156 children who died before reaching 1 year of life in 1000 live births. Although there is an increase in studies that document trends and specific causes of infant mortality in each country, historical-comparative studies of infant mortality among these countries remain rare. Understanding the trend of this indicator is important for policymakers and planners in order to improve access to successful child survival operations. Lusophone Africa continues with high infant mortality rates in the order of 64 deaths per thousand births. Assuming heterogeneities that can characterize these countries, raise an analysis investigated indicator at the country level to understand the pattern and historical trend of infant mortality within Lusophone Africa from the year 2021. The result is to understand the levels and evolution of infant mortality in Portuguese-speaking African countries.

Keywords: child mortality, levels, trends, lusophone African countries

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2718 Field Deployment of Corrosion Inhibitor Developed for Sour Oil and Gas Carbon Steel Pipelines

Authors: Jeremy Moloney

Abstract:

A major oil and gas operator in western Canada producing approximately 50,000 BOE per day of sour fluids was experiencing increased water production along with decreased oil production over several years. The higher water volumes being produced meant an increase in the operator’s incumbent corrosion inhibitor (CI) chemical requirements but with reduced oil production revenues. Thus, a cost-effective corrosion inhibitor solution was sought to deliver enhanced corrosion mitigation of the carbon steel pipeline infrastructure but at reduced chemical injection dose rates. This paper presents the laboratory work conducted on the development of a corrosion inhibitor under the operator’s simulated sour operating conditions and then subsequent field testing of the product. The new CI not only provided extremely good levels of general and localized corrosion inhibition and outperformed the incumbent CI under the laboratory test conditions but did so at vastly lower concentrations. In turn, the novel CI product facilitated field chemical injection rates to be optimized and reduced by 40% compared with the incumbent whilst maintaining superior corrosion protection resulting in significant cost savings and associated sustainability benefits for the operator.

Keywords: carbon steel, sour gas, hydrogen sulphide, localized corrosion, pitting, corrosion inhibitor

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2717 Asset Liability Modelling for Pension Funds by Introducing Leslie Model for Population Dynamics

Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

Abstract:

The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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2716 The Effectiveness of Online Learning in the Wisconsin Technical College System

Authors: Julie Furst-Bowe

Abstract:

Over the past decade, there has been significant growth in online courses and programs at all levels of education in the United States. This study explores the growth of online and blended (or hybrid) programs offered by the sixteen technical colleges in the Wisconsin Technical College System (WTCS). The WTCS provides education and training programs to more than 300,000 students each year in career clusters including agriculture, business, energy, information technology, healthcare, human services, manufacturing, and transportation. These programs range from short-term training programs that may lead to a certificate to two-year programs that lead to an associate degree. Students vary in age from high school students who are exploring career interests to employees who are seeking to gain additional skills or enter a new career. Because there is currently a shortage of skilled workers in nearly all sectors in the state of Wisconsin, it is critical that the WTCS is providing fully educated and trained graduates to fill workforce needs in a timely manner. For this study, information on online and blended programs for the past five years was collected from the WTCS, including types of programs, course and program enrollments, course completion rates, program completion rates, time to completion and graduate employment rates. The results of this study indicate that the number of online and blended courses and programs is continuing to increase each year. Online and blended programs are most commonly found in the business, human services, and information technology areas, and they are less commonly found in agriculture, healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation programs. Overall, course and program completion rates were higher for blended programs when compared to fully online programs. Students preferred the blended programs over the fully online programs. Overall, graduates were placed into related jobs at a rate of approximately 90 percent, although there was some variation in graduate placement rates by programs and by colleges. Differences in graduate employment rate appeared to be based on geography and sector as employers did not distinguish between graduates who had completed their programs via traditional, blended or fully online instruction. Recommendations include further exploration as to the reasons that blended courses and programs appear to be more effective than fully online courses and programs. It is also recommended that those program areas that are not using blended or online delivery methods, including agriculture, health, manufacturing and transportation, explore the use of these methods to make their courses and programs more accessible to students, particularly working adults. In some instances, colleges were partnering with specific companies to ensure that groups of employees were completing online coursework leading to a certificate or a degree. Those partnerships are to be encouraged in order for the state to continue to improve the skills of its workforce. Finally, it is recommended that specific colleges specialize in the delivery of specific programs using online technology since it is not bound by geographic considerations. This approach would take advantage of the strengths of the individual colleges and avoid unnecessary duplication.

Keywords: career and technical education, online learning, skills shortage, technical colleges

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
2715 Reliability of Swine Estrous Detector Probe in Dairy Cattle Breeding

Authors: O. O. Leigh, L. C. Agbugba, A. O. Oyewunmi, A. E. Ibiam, A. Hassan

Abstract:

Accuracy of insemination timing is a key determinant of high pregnancy rates in livestock breeding stations. The estrous detector probes are a recent introduction into the Nigerian livestock farming sector. Many of these probes are species-labeled and they measure changes in the vaginal mucus resistivity (VMR) during the stages of the estrous cycle. With respect to size and shaft conformation, the Draminski® swine estrous detector probe (sEDP) is quite similar to the bovine estrous detector probe. We investigated the reliability of the sEDP at insemination time on two farms designated as FM A and FM B. Cows (Bunaji, n=20 per farm) were evaluated for VMR at 16th h post standard OvSynch protocol, with concurrent insemination on FM B only. The difference in the mean VMR between FM A (221 ± 24.36) Ohms and FM B (254 ± 35.59) Ohms was not significant (p > 0.05). Sixteen cows (80%) at FM B were later (day 70) confirmed pregnant via rectal palpation and calved at term. These findings suggest consistency in VMR evaluated with sEDP at insemination as well as a high predictability for VMR associated with good pregnancy rates in dairy cattle. We conclude that Draminski® swine estrous detector probe is reliable in determining time of insemination in cattle breeding stations.

Keywords: dairy cattle, insemination, swine estrous probe, vaginal mucus resistivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
2714 Cyber-Bullying Beyond Parental Control in High Schools

Authors: Eke Chidi Idi

Abstract:

School violence is a global phenomenon that affects one of the core institutions of modern society to some degree across many countries, and on a global scale. Within this context, this study explores the impact of parental control on perpetrators of cyber bullying as a form of school-based violence in high schools in uMgungundlovu district of KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa. Insights for this study were drawn from 18 in-depth interviews and two (2) focus group forums. The key themes that emerged from the findings include: (1) Parents are ignorant of their children involvement in cyber-crimes (2) Parents cannot adequately monitor what their children do on their cell phones (3) Female learners are the most affected as victims of cyber-crime.

Keywords: school, violence, parental control, cyber bullying

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2713 Towards a Proof Acceptance by Overcoming Challenges in Collecting Digital Evidence

Authors: Lilian Noronha Nassif

Abstract:

Cybercrime investigation demands an appropriated evidence collection mechanism. If the investigator does not acquire digital proofs in a forensic sound, some important information can be lost, and judges can discard case evidence because the acquisition was inadequate. The correct digital forensic seizing involves preparation of professionals from fields of law, police, and computer science. This paper presents important challenges faced during evidence collection in different perspectives of places. The crime scene can be virtual or real, and technical obstacles and privacy concerns must be considered. All pointed challenges here highlight the precautions to be taken in the digital evidence collection and the suggested procedures contribute to the best practices in the digital forensics field.

Keywords: digital evidence, digital forensics process and procedures, mobile forensics, cloud forensics

Procedia PDF Downloads 386
2712 Investigating the Dynamics of Knowledge Acquisition in Learning Using Differential Equations

Authors: Gilbert Makanda, Roelf Sypkens

Abstract:

A mathematical model for knowledge acquisition in teaching and learning is proposed. In this study we adopt the mathematical model that is normally used for disease modelling into teaching and learning. We derive mathematical conditions which facilitate knowledge acquisition. This study compares the effects of dropping out of the course at early stages with later stages of learning. The study also investigates effect of individual interaction and learning from other sources to facilitate learning. The study fits actual data to a general mathematical model using Matlab ODE45 and lsqnonlin to obtain a unique mathematical model that can be used to predict knowledge acquisition. The data used in this study was obtained from the tutorial test results for mathematics 2 students from the Central University of Technology, Free State, South Africa in the department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. The study confirms already known results that increasing dropout rates and forgetting taught concepts reduce the population of knowledgeable students. Increasing teaching contacts and access to other learning materials facilitate knowledge acquisition. The effect of increasing dropout rates is more enhanced in the later stages of learning than earlier stages. The study opens up a new direction in further investigations in teaching and learning using differential equations.

Keywords: differential equations, knowledge acquisition, least squares nonlinear, dynamical systems

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2711 Efficacy of Defender 2% WS (Tebuconazole) and Imidal 70 WS (Imidacloprid) to Control Damping-Off Diseases and Early Insect Pests in Sesame in Rain Fed Areas, Sudan

Authors: Anas Fadlelmula, Elsafi M. M. Ahmed

Abstract:

The efficacy of Defender 2% WS (tebuconazole) and Imidal 70 WS (imidacloprid) to control damping-off diseases and early insect pests in sesame crop under rain fed conditions at Damazine and Gedarif areas was evaluated. Defender 2% WS with dosage rates 0.5, 0.75, 1.0 and 1.25 g/kg of seeds and Imidal 70 WS at 2.25, 3.0, and 3.75 g/ kg of seeds were tested singly and as a mixture during 2010/2011 and 2012/013. Sesame seeds treated with Defender at the rates of 0.5 g and 0.75 g/ kg of seeds gave a high significant increase in percent seedlings emergence (84% and 85%) respectively. Imidal 70 WS at rate of 3g/kg seed showed the least percent damaged leaves by sesame webworm (1.7%). However, the mixed Defender at rate 0.75g with Imidal at 3 g/kg seed, significantly gave a highest percentage of sesame seedling emergence (85.1%) and reduced the incidence of post-emergence damping off and percent damaged leaves to the least per cent (2.1% and 0.4% ) respectively, compared to other treatments. Consequently, the mixed treatment of 0.75 g of Defender + 3 g of Imidal improved the crop stand and significantly gave the highest yield (405.2 kg and 418.8 kg/fed) respectively in both sites compared to the other treatments.

Keywords: seed dressers, damage, daming off, insects

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2710 Contemporary Mexican Shadow Politics: The War on Drugs and the Issue of Security

Authors: Lisdey Espinoza Pedraza

Abstract:

Organised crime in Mexico evolves faster that our capacity to understand and explain it. Organised gangs have become successful entrepreneurs in many ways ad they have somehow mimicked the working ways of the authorities and in many cases, they have successfully infiltrated the governmental spheres. This business model is only possible under a clear scheme of rampant impunity. Impunity, however, is not exclusive to the PRI. Nor the PRI, PAN, or PRD can claim the monopoly of corruption, but what is worse is that none can claim full honesty in their acts either. The current security crisis in Mexico shows a crisis in the Mexican political party system. Corruption today is not only a problem of dishonesty and the correct use of public resources. It is the principal threat to Mexican democracy, governance, and national security.

Keywords: security, war on drugs, drug trafficking, Mexico, Latin America, United States

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2709 Analysis of Endogenous Sirevirus in Germinating Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)

Authors: Nermin Gozukirmizi, Buket Cakmak, Sevgi Marakli

Abstract:

Sireviruses are genera of copia LTR retrotransposons with a unique genome structure among retrotransposons. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is an economically important plant and has been studied as a model plant regarding its short annual life cycle and seven chromosome pairs. In this study, we used mature barley embryos, 10-day-old roots and 10-day-old leaves derived from the same barley plant to investigate SIRE1 retrotransposon movements by Inter-Retrotransposon Amplified Polymorphism (IRAP) technique. We found polymorphism rates between 0-64% among embryos, roots and leaves. Polymorphism rates were detected to be 0-27% among embryos, 8-60% among roots, and 11-50% among leaves. Polymorphisms were observed not only among the parts of different individuals, but also on the parts of the same plant (23-64%). The internal domains of SIRE1 (gag, env and rt) were also analyzed in the embryos, roots and leaves. Analysis of band profiles showed no polymorphism for gag, however, different band patterns were observed among samples for rt and env. The sequencing of SIRE1 gag, env and rt domains revealed 79% similarity for gag, 95% for env and 84% for rt to Ty1-copia retrotransposons. SIRE1 retrotransposon was identified in the soybean genome and has been studied on other plants (maize, rice, tomatoe etc.). This study is the first detailed investigation of SIRE1 in barley genome. The obtained findings are expected to contribute to the comprehension of SIRE1 retrotransposon and its role in barley genome.

Keywords: barley, polymorphism, retrotransposon, SIRE1 virus

Procedia PDF Downloads 286