Search results for: random intercepts model

Authors: Yakubu Suleiman, S. A. Musa

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The research was conducted to determine the physical characteristics of banana fruits that influenced consumer preferences for the fruit in Northern Nigeria. Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents were also identified. Simple descriptive statistics and Hedonic prices model were used to analyze the data collected for socio-economic and consumer preference respectively with the aid of 1000 structured questionnaires. The result revealed the value of R2 to be 0.633, meaning that, 63.3% of the variation in the banana price was brought about by the explanatory variables included in the model and the variables are: colour, size, degree of ripeness, softness, surface blemish, cleanliness of the fruits, weight, length, and cluster size of fruits. However, the remaining 36.7% could be attributed to the error term or random disturbance in the model. It could also be seen from the calculated result that the intercept was 1886.5 and was statistically significant (P < 0.01), meaning that about N1886.5 worth of banana fruits could be bought by consumers without considering the variables of banana included in the model. Moreover, consumers showed that they have significant preference for colours, size, degree of ripeness, softness, weight, length and cluster size of banana fruits and they were tested to be significant at either P < 0.01, P < 0.05, and P < 0.1 . Moreover, the result also shows that consumers did not show significance preferences to surface blemish, cleanliness and variety of the banana fruit as all of them showed non-significance level with negative signs. Based on the findings of the research, it is hereby recommended that plant breeders and research institutes should concentrate on the production of banana fruits that have those physical characteristics that were found to be statistically significance like cluster size, degree of ripeness,’ softness, length, size, and skin colour.

Keywords: analysis, consumers, preference, variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Amreth Chandrasehar

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Machine Learning (ML) Models are developed and run in production to solve various use cases that help organizations to be more efficient and help drive the business. But this comes at a massive development cost and lost business opportunities. According to the Gartner report, 85% of data science projects fail, and one of the factors impacting this is not paying attention to Model Observability. Model Observability helps the developers and operators to pinpoint the model performance issues data drift and help identify root cause of issues. This paper focuses on providing insights into incorporating model observability in model development and operationalizing it in production.

Keywords: model observability, monitoring, drift detection, ML observability platform

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Authors: S. A. Sadegh Zadeh, C. Kambhampati

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Mathematical and computational modellings are the necessary tools for reviewing, analysing, and predicting processes and events in the wide spectrum range of scientific fields. Therefore, in a field as rapidly developing as neuroscience, the combination of these two modellings can have a significant role in helping to guide the direction the field takes. The paper combined mathematical and computational modelling to prove a weakness in a very precious model in neuroscience. This paper is intended to analyse all-or-none principle in Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical model. By implementation the computational model of Hodgkin-Huxley model and applying the concept of all-or-none principle, an investigation on this mathematical model has been performed. The results clearly showed that the mathematical model of Hodgkin-Huxley does not observe this fundamental law in neurophysiology to generating action potentials. This study shows that further mathematical studies on the Hodgkin-Huxley model are needed in order to create a model without this weakness.

Keywords: all-or-none, computational modelling, mathematical model, transmembrane voltage, action potential

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Authors: Wanida Suwunniponth

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This research paper aimed to developing a causal relationship model of success factors of customer relationship management of tourism in Thailand and to investigating relationships among the potential factors that facilitate the success of customer relationship management (CRM). The research was conducted in both quantitative and qualitative methods, by utilizing both questionnaire and in-depth interview. The questionnaire was used in collecting the data from 250 management staff in the hotels located within Bangkok area. Sampling techniques used in this research included cluster sampling according to the service quality and simple random sampling. The data input was analyzed by use of descriptive analysis and System Equation Model (SEM). The research findings demonstrated important factors accentuated by most respondents towards the success of CRM, which were organization, people, information technology and the process of CRM. Moreover, the customer relationship management of tourism business in Thailand was found to be successful at a very significant level. The hypothesis testing showed that the hypothesis was accepted, as the factors concerning with organization, people and information technology played an influence on the process and the success of customer relationship management, whereas the process of customer relationship management factor manipulated its success. The findings suggested that tourism business in Thailand with the implementation of customer relationship management should opt in improvement approach in terms of managerial structure, corporate culture building with customer- centralized approach accentuated, and investment of information technology and customer analysis, in order to capacitate higher efficiency of customer relationship management process that would result in customer satisfaction and retention of service.

Keywords: customer relationship management, casual relationship model, tourism, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Mohsen Bahrami, Banafsheh Nikmehr, Yueqiang Song, Anuradha Koduru, Ayse K. Vuruskan, Hongkun Lu, Tamer M. Yalcinkaya

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In recent years, we have witnessed an explosion of studies aimed at using a combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and time-lapse imaging data on embryos to improve IVF outcomes. However, despite promising results, no study has used a matched cohort of transferred embryos which only differ in pregnancy outcome, i.e., embryos from a single clinic which are similar in parameters, such as: morphokinetic condition, patient age, and overall clinic and lab performance. Here, we used time-lapse data on embryos with known pregnancy outcomes to see if the rich spatiotemporal information embedded in this data would allow the prediction of the pregnancy outcome regardless of such critical parameters. Methodology—We did a retrospective analysis of time-lapse data from our IVF clinic utilizing Embryoscope 100% of the time for embryo culture to blastocyst stage with known clinical outcomes, including live birth vs nonpregnant (embryos with spontaneous abortion outcomes were excluded). We used time-lapse data from 200 elective single transfer embryos randomly selected from January 2019 to June 2021. Our sample included 100 embryos in each group with no significant difference in patient age (P=0.9550) and morphokinetic scores (P=0.4032). Data from all patients were combined to make a 4th order tensor, and feature extraction were subsequently carried out by a tensor decomposition methodology. The features were then used in a machine learning classifier to classify the two groups. Major Findings—The performance of the model was evaluated using 100 random subsampling cross validation (train (80%) - test (20%)). The prediction accuracy, averaged across 100 permutations, exceeded 80%. We also did a random grouping analysis, in which labels (live birth, nonpregnant) were randomly assigned to embryos, which yielded 50% accuracy. Conclusion—The high accuracy in the main analysis and the low accuracy in random grouping analysis suggest a consistent spatiotemporal pattern which is associated with pregnancy outcomes, regardless of patient age and embryo morphokinetic condition, and beyond already known parameters, such as: early cleavage or early blastulation. Despite small samples size, this ongoing analysis is the first to show the potential of AI methods in capturing the complex morphokinetic changes embedded in embryo time-lapse data, which contribute to successful pregnancy outcomes, regardless of already known parameters. The results on a larger sample size with complementary analysis on prediction of other key outcomes, such as: euploidy and aneuploidy of embryos will be presented at the meeting.

Keywords: IVF, embryo, machine learning, time-lapse imaging data

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Authors: Zayar Phyo, Ei Chaw Htoon

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In a New-LSB based Steganography method, the Fisher-Yates algorithm is used to permute an existing array randomly. However, that algorithm performance became slower and occurred memory overflow problem while processing the large dimension of images. Therefore, the Text-Based Shuffling algorithm aimed to select only necessary pixels as hiding characters at the specific position of an image according to the length of the input text. In this paper, the enhanced text-based shuffling algorithm is presented with the powered of GPU to improve more excellent performance. The proposed algorithm employs the OpenCL Aparapi framework, along with XORShift Kernel including the Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG) Kernel. PRNG is applied to produce random numbers inside the kernel of OpenCL. The experiment of the proposed algorithm is carried out by practicing GPU that it can perform faster-processing speed and better efficiency without getting the disruption of unnecessary operating system tasks.

Keywords: LSB based steganography, Fisher-Yates algorithm, text-based shuffling algorithm, OpenCL, XORShiftKernel

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Authors: Prasanna Ramachandran, Kareem Graham, Helena Kiefel, Sunit Jain, Todd DeSantis

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Microbes that reside inside the mammalian GI tract, commonly referred to as the gut microbiome, have been shown to have therapeutic effects in animal models of disease. We hypothesize that specific proteins produced by these microbes are responsible for this activity and may be used directly as therapeutics. To speed up the discovery of these key proteins from the big-data metagenomics, we have applied machine learning techniques. Using amino acid sequences of known epitopes and their corresponding binding partners, protein interaction descriptors (PID) were calculated, making a positive interaction set. A negative interaction dataset was calculated using sequences of proteins known not to interact with these same binding partners. Using Random Forest and positive and negative PID, a machine learning model was trained and used to predict interacting versus non-interacting proteins. Furthermore, the continuous variable, cosine similarity in the interaction descriptors was used to rank bacterial therapeutic candidates. Laboratory binding assays were conducted to test the candidates for their potential as therapeutics. Results from binding assays reveal the accuracy of the machine learning prediction and are subsequently used to further improve the model.

Keywords: protein-interactions, machine-learning, metagenomics, microbiome

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Authors: Newton Muhury, Armando A. Apan, Tek N. Marasani, Gebiaw T. Ayele

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The changing climate has degraded freshwater availability in Australia that influencing vegetation growth to a great extent. This study assessed the vegetation responses to groundwater using Terra’s moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and soil water content (SWC). A hydrological model, SWAT, has been set up in a southeast Australian river catchment for groundwater analysis. The model was calibrated and validated against monthly streamflow from 2001 to 2006 and 2007 to 2010, respectively. The SWAT simulated soil water content for 43 sub-basins and monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) were applied in the machine learning tool, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), using two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The assessment shows that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet seasons. The WEKA model generated high positive relationships (r = 0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between NDVI values of all vegetation in the sub-basins against soil water content (SWC), the groundwater flow (GW), and the combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these responses were reduced by 36.8% (r = 0.48) and 13.6% (r = 0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. Although the rainfall pattern is highly variable in the study area, the summer rainfall is very effective for the growth of the grass vegetation type. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, machine learning, floodplain vegetation, MODIS NDVI, groundwater

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Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

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We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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Authors: Timur Zhukov, Yuko Yamashita

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Music as a product of hedonic consumption has been researched at least since the early 20th century, but little light has been shed on how language affects its consumption process. At the intersection of music consumption, language impact, and consumer behavior, this research explores the influence of language on music consumption in Japan. Its aim is to clarify how listening to music in different languages affects the listener’s purchase intention and sharing intention by conducting a survey where respondents listen to three versions of the same song in different languages in random order. It uses an existing framework that views the flow of music consumption as a combination of responses (emotional response, sensory response, imaginal response, analytical responses) affecting the experiential response, which then affects the overall affective response, followed by the need to reexperience and lastly the purchase intention. In this research, the sharing intention has been added to the model to better fit the modern consumption model (e.g., AISAS). This research shows how positive and negative emotions and imaginal and analytical responses change depending on the language and what impact it has on consumer behavior. It concludes by proposing how modern music businesses can learn from the language differences and cater to the needs of the audiences who speak different languages.

Keywords: AISAS, consumer behavior, first language, music consumption, second language

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Authors: Mozhgan Mohammadi, Arezoo Ghadi

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Arsenic is known as a potential threat to the environment. Therefore, the aim of this research is to assess the arsenic removal efficiency from an aqueous solution, with a new biosorbent composed of a black seed pulp (BSP). To treat BSP, the combination of two methods (i.e. treating with mineral acids and use at high temperature) was used and designed bio-sorbent called BSP-activated/carbonized. The BSP-activated and BSP-carbonized were also prepared using HCL and 400°C temperature, respectively, to compare the results of each three methods. Followed by, adsorption parameters such as pH, initial ion concentration, biosorbent dosage, contact time, and temperature were assessed. It was found that the combination method has provided higher adsorption capacity so that up to ~99% arsenic removal was observed with BSP-activated/carbonized at pH of 7.0 and 40°C. The adsorption capacity for BSP-carbonized and BSP-activated were 87.92% (pH: 7, 60°C) and 78.50% (pH: 6, 90°C), respectively. Moreover, adsorption kinetics data indicated the best fit with the pseudo-second-order model. The maximum biosorption capacity, by the Langmuir isotherm model, was also recorded for BSP-activated/carbonized (53.47 mg/g). It is notable that arsenic adsorption on studied bio sorbents takes place as spontaneous and through chemisorption along with the endothermic nature of the biosorption process and reduction of random collision in the solid-liquid phase.

Keywords: black seed pulp, bio-sorbents, treatment of sorbents, adsorption isotherms

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Authors: Mário Ernesto Sitoe, Orlando Zacarias

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University education is influenced by several factors that range from the adoption of strategies to strengthen the whole process to the academic performance improvement of the students themselves. This work uses data mining techniques to develop a predictive model to identify students with a tendency to evasion and retention. To this end, a database of real students’ data from the Department of University Admission (DAU) and the Department of Mathematics and Informatics (DMI) was used. The data comprised 388 undergraduate students admitted in the years 2009 to 2014. The Weka tool was used for model building, using three different techniques, namely: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and logistic regression. To allow for training on multiple train-test splits, a cross-validation approach was employed with a varying number of folds. To reduce bias variance and improve the performance of the models, ensemble methods of Bagging and Stacking were used. After comparing the results obtained by the three classifiers, Logistic Regression using Bagging with seven folds obtained the best performance, showing results above 90% in all evaluated metrics: accuracy, rate of true positives, and precision. Retention is the most common tendency.

Keywords: evasion and retention, cross-validation, bagging, stacking

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Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Ching-Wei Liao, Kun-Che Lee

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This paper deals with the problem of using antenna sensors for adaptive beamforming in the presence of random steering mismatch. We present an efficient adaptive array beamformer with robustness to deal with the considered problem. The robustness of the proposed beamformer comes from the efficient designation of the steering vector. Using the received array data vector, we construct an appropriate correlation matrix associated with the received array data vector and a correlation matrix associated with signal sources. Then, the eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of the constructed signal correlation matrix is designated as an appropriate estimate of the steering vector. Finally, the adaptive weight vector required for adaptive beamforming is obtained by using the estimated steering vector and the constructed correlation matrix of the array data vector. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive beamforming, antenna array, linearly constrained minimum variance, robustness, steering vector

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Authors: L. Melzerová, T. Janda, M. Šejnoha, J. Šejnoha

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Two finite element (FEM) models are presented in this paper to address the random nature of the response of glued timber structures made of wood segments with variable elastic moduli evaluated from 3600 indentation measurements. This total database served to create the same number of ensembles as was the number of segments in the tested beam. Statistics of these ensembles were then assigned to given segments of beams and the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was called to perform 100 simulations resulting into the ensemble of 100 deflections subjected to statistical evaluation. Here, a detailed geometrical arrangement of individual segments in the laminated beam was considered in the construction of two-dimensional FEM model subjected to in four-point bending to comply with the laboratory tests. Since laboratory measurements of local elastic moduli may in general suffer from a significant experimental error, it appears advantageous to exploit the full scale measurements of timber beams, i.e. deflections, to improve their prior distributions with the help of the Bayesian statistical method. This, however, requires an efficient computational model when simulating the laboratory tests numerically. To this end, a simplified model based on Mindlin’s beam theory was established. The improved posterior distributions show that the most significant change of the Young’s modulus distribution takes place in laminae in the most strained zones, i.e. in the top and bottom layers within the beam center region. Posterior distributions of moduli of elasticity were subsequently utilized in the 2D FEM model and compared with the original simulations.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, FEM, four point bending test, laminated timber, parameter estimation, prior and posterior distribution, Young’s modulus

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Authors: Ravi Verma

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Cryosorption pump is the best solution to achieve clean, vibration free ultra-high vacuum. Furthermore, the operation of cryosorption pump is free from the influence of electric and magnetic fields. Due to these attributes, this pump is used in the space simulation chamber to create the ultra-high vacuum. The cryosorption pump comprises of three parts (a) panel which is cooled with the help of cryogen or cryocooler, (b) an adsorbent which is used to adsorb the gas molecules, (c) an epoxy which holds the adsorbent and the panel together thereby aiding in heat transfer from adsorbent to the panel. The performance of cryosorption pump depends on the temperature of the adsorbent and hence, on the thermal conductivity of the epoxy. Therefore we have made an attempt to increase the thermal conductivity of epoxy adhesive by mixing nano-sized graphene filler particles. The thermal conductivity of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive is measured with the help of indigenously developed experimental setup in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K, which is generally the operating temperature range of cryosorption pump for efficiently pumping of hydrogen and helium gas. In this article, we have presented the experimental results of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. We have also proposed an analytical heat conduction model to find the thermal conductivity of the composite. In this case, the filler particles, such as graphene, are randomly distributed in a base matrix of epoxy. The developed model considers the complete spatial random distribution of filler particles and this distribution is explained by Binomial distribution. The results obtained by the model have been compared with the experimental results as well as with the other established models. The developed model is able to predict the thermal conductivity in both isotropic regions as well as in anisotropic region over the required temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. Due to the non-empirical nature of the proposed model, it will be useful for the prediction of other properties of composite materials involving the filler in a base matrix. The present studies will aid in the understanding of low temperature heat transfer which in turn will be useful towards the development of high performance cryosorption pump.

Keywords: composite adhesive, computational modelling, cryosorption pump, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Jaouadi Imen, Ben Djemaa Raoudha, Ben Abdallah Hanene

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The access to relevant information that is adapted to users’ needs, preferences and environment is a challenge in many applications running. That causes an appearance of context-aware systems. To facilitate the development of this class of applications, it is necessary that these applications share a common context meta-model. In this article, we will present our context meta-model that is defined using the OMG Meta Object facility (MOF). This meta-model is based on the analysis and synthesis of context concepts proposed in literature.

Keywords: context, meta-model, MOF, awareness system

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Authors: Amadou Darboe, Kuo Hsien-Wen

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Background/Objective: The Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model by Siegrist et al (1986) have been widely used to examine the relationship between psychosocial factors at work and health. It claimed that failed reciprocity in terms of high efforts and low rewards elicits strong negative emotions in combination with sustained autonomic activation and is hazardous to health. The aim of this study is to identify the association between Self-rated Health and Effort-reward Imbalance (ERI) among Nurses and Environmental Health officers in the Gambia. Method: a cross-sectional study was conducted using a multi-stage random sampling of 296 healthcare professionals (206 nurses and 90 environmental health officers) working in public health facilities. The 22 items Effort-reward imbalance questionnaire (ERI-L version 22.11.2012) will be used to collect data on the psychosocial factors defined by the model. In addition, self-rated health will be assessed by using structured questionnaires containing Likert scale items. Results: We found that self-rated health among environmental health officers has a significant negative correlation with extrinsic effort and a positive significant correlations with occupational reward and job satisfaction. However, among the nurses only job satisfaction was significantly correlated with self-rated health and was positive. Overall, Extrinsic effort has a significant negative correlation with reward and job satisfaction but a positive correlation with over-commitment. Conclusion: Because low reward and high over-commitment among the nursing group, It is necessary to modify working conditions through improving psychosocial factors, such as reasonable allocation of resources to increase pay or rewards from government.

Keywords: effort-reward imbalance model, healthcare professionals, self-rated health

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Authors: Tuleshova Gulnara, Abduldayeva Aigul

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The goal is based on the studying the prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies among children and women of reproductive age to develop evidence-based recommendations aimed at improving the effectiveness of programs to prevent micronutrient deficiency. Subject: In our study we used a representative, random sample, carried out with the cluster method in the precinct of the principle areas of medical care for children 5 years of old. If the site has at least 60 children under 5 years of old, each second child was sampled, and if more than 60 children - each third child (first child selected by random sampling). The total number of investigated persons was within 80-86 women of reproductive age and children - within 80-92 people. Results: The studies found that the average prevalence of anemia among children aged 6-59 months was 35.2%, with the most susceptible to iron deficiency anemia in infants aged 6-23 months (53.3%). The prevalence of anemia among non-pregnant women was 39.0% among pregnant women - 43.8%. In children, the prevalence of folate deficiency was the highest (27.6%). Among non-pregnant women, frequent prevalence of folic acid deficiency was 37.0%. The prevalence of vitamin A deficiency was higher among children living in Astana (37.4%) compared with the medium-republican level (23.2%).

Keywords: nutrition, pregnant women, micronutrients, macronutrients

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Authors: Agustinus Rudatyo Himamunanto, Anastasia Rita Widiarti

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Transliteration using Javanese manuscripts is one of methods to preserve and legate the wealth of literature in the past for the present generation in Indonesia. The transliteration manual process commonly requires philologists and takes a relatively long time. The automatic transliteration process is expected to shorten the time so as to help the works of philologists. The preprocessing and segmentation stage firstly done is used to manage the document images, thus obtaining image script units that will compile input document images free from noise and have the similarity in properties in the thickness, size, and slope. The next stage of characteristic extraction is used to find unique characteristics that will distinguish each Javanese script image. One of characteristics that is used in this research is the number of black pixels in each image units. Each image of Java scripts contained in the data training will undergo the same process similar to the input characters. The system testing was performed with the data of the book Hamong Tani. The book Hamong Tani was selected due to its content, age and number of pages. Those were considered sufficient as a model experimental input. Based on the results of random page automatic transliteration process testing, it was determined that the maximum percentage correctness obtained was 81.53%. The percentage of success was obtained in 32x32 pixel input image size with the 5x5 image window. With regard to the results, it can be concluded that the automatic transliteration model offered is relatively good.

Keywords: Javanese script, character recognition, statistical, automatic transliteration

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Keywords: ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors

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Authors: Anthony Usoro

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In this paper, two classes of bilinear time series model are obtained under certain conditions from the general bilinear autoregressive moving average model. Bilinear Autoregressive (BAR) and Bilinear Moving Average (BMA) Models have been identified. From the general bilinear model, BAR and BMA models have been proved to exist for q = Q = 0, => j = 0, and p = P = 0, => i = 0 respectively. These models are found useful in modelling most of the economic and financial data.

Keywords: autoregressive model, bilinear autoregressive model, bilinear moving average model, moving average model

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Authors: Jiawen Wang, Qijun Chen

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The performance of most machine-learning methods for image inpainting depends on the quantity and quality of the training samples. However, it is very expensive or even impossible to obtain a great number of training samples in many scenarios. In this paper, an image inpainting model based on a generative adversary network (GAN) is constructed for the cases when the number of training samples is small. Firstly, a feature extraction network (F-net) is incorporated into the GAN network to utilize the available information of the inpainting image. The weighted sum of the extracted feature and the random noise acts as the input to the generative network (G-net). The proposed network can be trained well even when the sample size is very small. Secondly, in the phase of the completion for each damaged image, a genetic algorithm is designed to search an optimized noise input for G-net; based on this optimized input, the parameters of the G-net and F-net are further learned (Once the completion for a certain damaged image ends, the parameters restore to its original values obtained in the training phase) to generate an image patch that not only can fill the missing part of the damaged image smoothly but also has visual semantics.

Keywords: image inpainting, generative adversary nets, genetic algorithm, small-sample size

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Authors: Zhi Hao Chow, Cian Mulligan, Jack Walsh, Antonio Garzon Vico, Dimitar Krastev

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Drug development is resource-intensive, time-consuming, and increasingly expensive with each developmental stage. The success rates of drug development are also relatively low, and the resources committed are wasted with each failed candidate. As such, a reliable method of predicting the success of drug development is in demand. The hypothesis was that some examples of failed drug candidates are pushed through developmental pipelines based on false confidence and may possess common linguistic features identifiable through sentiment analysis. Here, the concept of using text analysis to discover such features in research publications and investor reports as predictors of success was explored. R studios were used to perform text mining and lexicon-based sentiment analysis to identify affective phrases and determine their frequency in each document, then using SPSS to determine the relationship between our defined variables and the accuracy of predicting outcomes. A total of 161 publications were collected and categorised into 4 groups: (i) Cancer treatment, (ii) Neurodegenerative disease treatment, (iii) Vaccines, and (iv) Others (containing all other drugs that do not fit into the 3 categories). Text analysis was then performed on each document using 2 separate datasets (BING and AFINN) in R within the category of drugs to determine the frequency of positive or negative phrases in each document. A relative positivity and negativity value were then calculated by dividing the frequency of phrases with the word count of each document. Regression analysis was then performed with SPSS statistical software on each dataset (values from using BING or AFINN dataset during text analysis) using a random selection of 61 documents to construct a model. The remaining documents were then used to determine the predictive power of the models. Model constructed from BING predicts the outcome of drug performance in clinical trials with an overall percentage of 65.3%. AFINN model had a lower accuracy at predicting outcomes compared to the BING model at 62.5% but was not effective at predicting the failure of drugs in clinical trials. Overall, the study did not show significant efficacy of the model at predicting outcomes of drugs in development. Many improvements may need to be made to later iterations of the model to sufficiently increase the accuracy.

Keywords: data analysis, drug development, sentiment analysis, text-mining

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Authors: Abeer M. Algeblawi

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Fifteen isolates of Agrobacterium tumefaciens were obtained from crown gall samples collected from six locations (Tripoli, Alzahra, Ain-Zara, Alzawia, Alazezia in Libya) from Grape (Vitis vinifera L.), Pear (Pyrus communis L.), Peach (Prunus persica L.) and Alexandria in Egypt from Guava (Psidium guajava L.) trees, Artichoke (Cynara cardunculus L.) and Sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.). Total DNA was extracted from the eight isolates as well as the identification of six isolates used into Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) analysis and Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique were used. High similarity (55.5%) was observed among the eight A. tumefaciens isolates (Agro1, Agro2, Agro3, Agro4, Agro5, Agro6, Agro7, and Agro8). The PCR amplification products were resulting from the use of two specific primers (virD2A-virD2C). Analysis induction six isolates of A. tumefaciens obtained from different hosts. A visible band was specific to A. tumefaciens of (220 bp, 224 bp) and 338 bp produced with total DNA extracted from bacterial cells.

Keywords: Agrobacterium tumefaciens, crown gall, identification, molecular characterization, PCR, RAPD

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Authors: Shank Kulkarni, Alireza Tabarraei

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The fantastic properties of polyurea such as flexibility, durability, and chemical resistance have brought it a wide range of application in various industries. Effective prediction of the response of polyurea under different loading and environmental conditions necessitates the development of an accurate constitutive model. Similar to most polymers, the behavior of polyurea depends on both strain and strain rate. Therefore, the constitutive model should be able to capture both these effects on the response of polyurea. To achieve this objective, in this paper, a nonlinear hyper-viscoelastic constitutive model is developed by the superposition of a hyperelastic and a viscoelastic model. The proposed constitutive model can capture the behavior of polyurea under compressive loading conditions at various strain rates. Four parameter Ogden model and Mooney Rivlin model are used to modeling the hyperelastic behavior of polyurea. The viscoelastic behavior is modeled using both a three-parameter standard linear solid (SLS) model and a K-BKZ model. Comparison of the modeling results with experiments shows that Odgen and SLS model can more accurately predict the behavior of polyurea. The material parameters of the model are found by curve fitting of the proposed model to the uniaxial compression test data. The proposed model can closely reproduce the stress-strain behavior of polyurea for strain rates up to 6500 /s.

Keywords: constitutive modelling, ogden model, polyurea, SLS model, uniaxial compression test

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

Abstract:

The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

Abstract:

Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: reliability approach, storage tanks, monte carlo simulation, seismic acceleration

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Hussein Altartouri

Abstract:

In this paper the kinematic and kinetic models of an omnidirectional holonomic mobile robot is presented. The kinematic and kinetic models form the OmniDrive model. Therefore, a mathematical model for the robot equipped with three- omnidirectional wheels is derived. This model which takes into consideration the kinematics and kinetics of the robot, is developed to state space representation. Relative analysis of the velocities and displacements is used for the kinematics of the robot. Lagrange’s approach is considered in this study for deriving the equation of motion. The drive train and the mechanical assembly only of the Festo Robotino® is considered in this model. Mainly the model is developed for motion control. Furthermore, the model can be used for simulation purposes in different virtual environments not only Robotino® View. Further use of the model is in the mechatronics research fields with the aim of teaching and learning the advanced control theories.

Keywords: mobile robot, omni-direction wheel, mathematical model, holonomic mobile robot

Procedia PDF Downloads 608

Authors: Kunthida Kulprateepunya, Napat Boontiam, Bunthita Phuasa, Chatsuda Kankayant, Bantoeng Polsawat, Sumran Poontong

Abstract:

Frailty is the thin line between good health and illness. The syndrome is more common in the elderly who transition from strong to weak. (Vulnerability). Fragility can prevent and promote healthy recovery before it goes into disability. This research and development aim to analyze the situation analysis of frailty of the elderly, develop a program, and evaluate the effect of a health promotion program to prevent and solve the problem of frailty among the elderly. The research consisted of 3 phases: 1) analysis of the frailty situation, 2) development of a model, 3) evaluation of the effectiveness of the model. Samples were 328, 122 elderlies using the multi-stage random sampling method. The research instrument was a frailty questionnaire use of the five symptoms, the main characteristics were muscle weakness, slow walking, low physical activity. Fatigue and unintentional weight loss, criteria frailty use more than or equal to three or more symptoms are frailty. Data were analyzed by descriptive and t-test dependent test statistics. The findings showed three parts. First, frailty in the elderly was 23.05 percentage and 56.70% pre-frailty. Second, it was development of a health promotion program to prevent and solve the problem of frailty the elderly with a combination of Nine-Square Exercise, Elastic Band Exercise, Elastic Coconut Shell. Third, evaluation of the effectiveness of the model by comparison of the elderly's get up and go test, the average time before using the program was 14.42 and after using the program was 8.57. It was statistically significant at the .05 level. In conclusion, the findings can used to develop guidelines to promote the health of the frailty elderly.

Keywords: elderly, fragile, nine-square exercise, elastic coconut shell

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Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

Abstract:

A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity

Procedia PDF Downloads 492