Search results for: Fisher criterion

Authors: Khosro Barkhordari, Fateme Sadr, Mina Pashang

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Back ground: Blood transfusion is one of the major issues in cardiac surgery patients. Transfusing patients based on fixed cut-off points of hemoglobin is the current protocol in most institutions. The hemoglobin level of 7- 10 has been suggested for blood transfusion in cardiac surgery patients. We aimed to evaluate if blood transfusion based on change in percentage of hematocrit has different outcomes. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated the early postoperative outcome of cardiac surgery patients who received blood transfusions at Tehran Heart Center Hospital, IRAN. We reviewed and analyzed the basic characteristics and clinical data of 700 patients who met our exclusion and inclusion criteria. The two groups of blood transfused patients were compared, those who have 30-50 percent decrease in basal hematocrit versus those with 10 -29 percent decrease. Results: This is ongoing study, and the results would be completed in two weeks after analysis of the date. Conclusion: Early analysis has shown no difference in early post-operative outcomes between the two groups, but final analysis will be completed in two weeks. 1-Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IRAN 2- Department of Research, Tehran Heart Center, Tehran, IRAN Quantitative variables were compared using the Student t-test or the Mann‐Whitney U test, as appropriate, while categorical variables were compared using the χ2 or the Fisher exact test, as required. Our intention was to compare the early postoperative outcomes between the two groups, which include 30 days mortality, Length of ICU stay, Length of hospital stay, Intubation time, Infection rate, acute kidney injury, and respiratory complications. The main goal was to find if transfusing blood based on changes in hematocrit from a basal level was better than to fixed cut-off point regarding early post-operative outcomes. This has not been studied enough and may need randomized control trials.

Keywords: post-operative, cardiac surgery, outcomes, blood transfusion

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Authors: Min-Woo Kim, Ok-Kyun Na, Jun-Ho Byun, Jong-Hwan Park, Seung-Hwa Yang, Joon-Hong Park, Young-Chul Park

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This study is focused on the comparative analysis and improvement to grasp the flow characteristic of the Anti-Splash Device located under the P/V Valve and new concept design models using the CFD analysis and Artificial Neural Network. The P/V valve located upper deck to solve the pressure rising and vacuum condition of inner tank of the liquid cargo ships occurred oil outflow accident by transverse and longitudinal sloshing force. Anti-Splash Device is fitted to improve and prevent this problem in the shipbuilding industry. But the oil outflow accidents are still reported by ship owners. Thus, four types of new design model are presented by study. Then, comparative analysis is conducted with new models and existing model. Mostly the key criterion of this problem is flux in the outlet of the Anti-Splash Device. Therefore, the flow and velocity are grasped by transient analysis. And then it decided optimum model and design parameters to develop model. Later, it needs to develop an Anti-Splash Device by Flow Test to get certification and verification using experiment equipment.

Keywords: anti-splash device, P/V valve, sloshing, artificial neural network

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Alan Luo, Hunter N. B. Moseley

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Many macromolecular structure entries in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) have a range of regional (localized) quality issues, be it derived from x-ray crystallography, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, or other experimental approaches. However, most PDB entries are judged by global quality metrics like R-factor, R-free, and resolution for x-ray crystallography or backbone phi-psi distribution statistics and average restraint violations for NMR. Regional quality is often ignored when PDB entries are re-used for a variety of structurally based analyses. The binding of ligands, especially ligands involved in energy metabolism, is of particular interest in many structurally focused protein studies. Using a regional quality metric that provides chemically interpretable information from electron density maps, a significant number of outliers in regional structural quality was detected across x-ray crystallographic PDB entries for proteins bound to biochemically critical ligands. In this study, a series of analyses was performed to evaluate both specific and general potential factors that could promote these outliers. In particular, these potential factors were the minimum distance to a metal ion, the minimum distance to a crystal contact, and the isotropic atomic b-factor. To evaluate these potential factors, Fisher’s exact tests were performed, using regional quality criteria of outlier (top 1%, 2.5%, 5%, or 10%) versus non-outlier compared to a potential factor metric above versus below a certain outlier cutoff. The results revealed a consistent general effect from region-specific normalized b-factors but no specific effect from metal ion contact distances and only a very weak effect from crystal contact distance as compared to the b-factor results. These findings indicate that no single specific potential factor explains a majority of the outlier ligand-bound regions, implying that human error is likely as important as these other factors. Thus, all factors, including human error, should be considered when regions of low structural quality are detected. Also, the downstream re-use of protein structures for studying ligand-bound conformations should screen the regional quality of the binding sites. Doing so prevents misinterpretation due to the presence of structural uncertainty or flaws in regions of interest.

Keywords: biomacromolecular structure, coenzyme, electron density discrepancy analysis, x-ray crystallography

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Authors: Iulia Crisan

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Objective: The present study investigates the cross-cultural validity of three North-American performance validity indicators (PVTs) by comparing base rates of failure (BRF) in Romanian and Canadian disability applicants. Methods: Three PVTs (Test of Memory Malingering Trial 1 [TOMM-1], Rey Fifteen Item Test free recall [Rey-15 FR], and Rey FR+Recognition [Rey COMB]) were administered to a heterogeneous Romanian clinical sample (N Ro =54) and a similar Canadian sample (N Can = 52). Patients were referred for assessment to determine the severity of their cognitive deficits. Results: We compared the BRF in both samples at various cutoffs. BRF on TOMM-1 at ≤ 43 was similar (Ro = 33.3% vs. Can = 40.4%); at ≤40, Ro = 22.2% vs. Can = 25.0%. Likewise, comparable BRF were observed on Rey-15 FR at ≤ 8 (Ro = 7.4% vs. Can = 11.5%) and ≤ 11 (Ro = 27.8% vs. Can = 23.1%). However, the Romanian sample produced significantly higher failure rates on the Rey COMB at variable cutoffs (p <.05), possibly because Romanian patients were significantly older than the Canadian sample. Conclusion: Our findings offer proof of concept for the cross-cultural validity of the TOMM and Rey-15 FR. At the same time, they serve as a reminder that the generalizability of PVT cutoffs to different populations should not be assumed but verified empirically. Employing the TOMM as a criterion measure for newly developed PVTs is discussed.

Keywords: performance validity indicators, cross-cultural validity, failure base rates, clinical samples, cognitive dysfunction, TOMM-1, Rey-15, Rey COMB

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Authors: Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ahmadur Rahman, Ariful Islam

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The major assumption in accelerated life tests (ALT) is that the mathematical model relating the lifetime of a test unit and the stress are known or can be assumed. In some cases, such life–stress relationships are not known and cannot be assumed, i.e. ALT data cannot be extrapolated to use condition. So, in such cases, partially accelerated life test (PALT) is a more suitable test to be performed for which tested units are subjected to both normal and accelerated conditions. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests using progressive failure-censored hybrid data with random removals. The life data of the units under test is considered to follow exponential life distribution. The removals from the test are assumed to have binomial distributions. The point and interval maximum likelihood estimations are obtained for unknown distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. An optimum test plan is developed using the D-optimality criterion. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: binomial distribution, d-optimality, multiple censoring, optimal design, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: S. Valarmathi, P. B. Harathi, R. Sridhar, S. Balasubramanian

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Machine learning tools in medical diagnosis is increasing due to the improved effectiveness of classification and recognition systems to help medical experts in diagnosing breast cancer. In this study, ID3 chooses the splitting attribute with the highest gain in information, where gain is defined as the difference between before the split versus after the split. It is applied for age, location, taluk, stage, year, period, martial status, treatment, heredity, sex, and habitat against Very Serious (VS), Very Serious Moderate (VSM), Serious (S) and Not Serious (NS) to calculate the gain of information. The ranked histogram gives the gain of each field for the breast cancer data. The doctors use TNM staging which will decide the risk level of the breast cancer and play an important decision making field in fuzzy logic for perception based measurement. Spatial risk area (taluk) of the breast cancer is calculated. Result clearly states that Coimbatore (North and South) was found to be risk region to the breast cancer than other areas at 20% criteria. Weighted value of taluk was compared with criterion value and integrated with Map Object to visualize the results. ID3 algorithm shows the high breast cancer risk regions in the study area. The study has outlined, discussed and resolved the algorithms, techniques / methods adopted through soft computing methodology like ID3 algorithm for prognostic decision making in the seriousness of the breast cancer.

Keywords: ID3 algorithm, breast cancer, fuzzy logic, MATLAB

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: S. I. Nwadioha, M. S. Odimayo, G. T. A. Jombo, E. O. P. Nwokedi

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Aims and Objectives: To determine the baseline CD4 positive T lymphocytes count of HIV/AIDS treatment naïve adults clients presenting for the first time treatment in Benue State University Teaching Hospital. Subjects and Methods: A total of 700 subjects age between 18 years to 70 years, were recruited for the study, comprising 600 HIV sero-positive patients and 100 healthy controls in Benue State University Teaching Hospital, Makurdi from 2013 to 2014. The CD4 counts of the subjects were evaluated using a Partec flow cytometer. Results: CD4 count of 200-299 cells/μl peaked with 25% (n=150/600)[control; 0%( n= 0/100)]. The study also showed that 44% (266/600) of HIV subjects had acquired immunodeficiency syndrome as defined by low CD4 counts below 200 cells/μl. Seventy-five per cent (n=451/600)of our patients would require to be placed on antiretroviral therapy with CD4 count of less than 350 cells/μl. At CD4 350 baseline criterion, age group 20-29 years had the highest demand 35%(160/451) for ARV followed by age groups 30-39 and 40-49 years with 28%(128/451) and 22%(98/451) respectively. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome as defined by CD4 counts below 200 cells/μl, among the young active productive age group. The strict adopting of the ART WHO 2010 scale- up criteria doubles the number of the HIV clients that would qualify for ART with its attendant health benefits on the long run.

Keywords: CD4 counts, HIV patients, young age group, Nigeria

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Authors: Enoch F. Sam, Kris Brijs, Stijn Daniels, Tom Brijs, Geert Wets

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Notwithstanding the growing body of literature that recognises the importance of personal safety to public transport (PT) users, it remains unclear what PT users consider regarding their safety. In this study, we explore the criteria PT users in Ghana use to assess bus safety. This knowledge will afford a better understanding of PT users’ risk perceptions and assessments which may contribute to theoretical models of PT risk perceptions. We utilised phenomenological research methodology, with data drawn from 61 purposively sampled participants. Data collection (through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews) and analyses were done concurrently to the point of saturation. Our inductive data coding and analyses through the constant comparison and content analytic techniques resulted in 4 code categories (conceptual dimensions), 27 codes (safety items/criteria), and 100 quotations (data segments). Of the number of safety criteria participants use to assess bus safety, vehicle condition, driver’s marital status, and transport operator’s safety records were the most considered. With each criterion, participants rightly demonstrated its respective relevance to bus safety. These findings imply that investment in and maintenance of safer vehicles, and responsible and safety-conscious drivers, and prioritization of passengers’ safety are key-targets for public bus/minibus operators in Ghana.

Keywords: safety evaluations, public bus/minibus, passengers, phenomenology, Ghana

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Authors: Jaleh Mohammad Aliha, Rezvan Razazi, Nasim Naderi

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Introduction: Despite the progress in new effective drugs in the treatment of heart failure, the disease still accompanied with frequent hospitalization, impaired quality of life, early mortality and significant economic burden. Patients with chronic disease and consequently patients with heart failure need the knowledge and optimal health literacy to improve the quality of life and minimize the rate of rehopitalizatio. So, considering to importance of knowledge and health literacy in this patients as well as contradictory literature, this study conducted to investigate the relationship between health literacy and Knowledge of heart failure with rehospitalization in patients with heart failure admitted to heart failure clinic in Rajai Heart center in 1394. Methods: The cross-sectional method with convenience sampling method was used in this study. After obtaining the necessary permissions from the ethics committee and the Shahid Rajai Heart center, 238 patients who were older than 18 years and had ejection fraction 35% or less with the ability to read and write and lack of psychiatric, neurological and cognitive disorders and signed the informed consent were recruited. Data collection were perfomed through demographic data questionnaire, short standard health literacy questionnaire 'Short-TOFHLA-16' and Vanderwall (2005) knowledge of heart failure questionnaire. Reliability was assessed by internal consistency method and Cronbach's alpha for both questionnaires was more than 0.7. Then data were analysed by SPSS-20 with descriptive statistic and analytical statistic such as T-test, Chi-square and ANOVA. Results: The majority of patients were male (66%), married (80%) and had age between 50 to 70 years old (42%). The majority of studied men and women have good health literacy and About half of them have adequate knowledge about heart failure. Fisher's exact test showed that there was a significant statistical correlation between health literacy and knowlegh about heart failure. In other words, higher health literacy associated with more knowledge about their condition. Also findings showed that there was no significant statistical correlation between health literacy and knowledge about heart failure and frequency of CCU and emergency admissions. Conclusion: The study results showed that the higher health literacy, associated with the greater knowledge about heart failure and patients' perception about caring recommendations and disease outcomes. Therefore, the knowledge about heart failure and factors which related to severity of the disease, is the important issue to problem identification and treatment and reduction of rehospitalization.

Keywords: health literacy, heart failure, knowlegde, rehospitalization

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Authors: Ugo Rovigatti

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Neuroblastoma (NBL) has epitomized for at least 40 years our understanding of cancer cellular and molecular biology and its potential applications to novel therapeutic strategies. This includes the discovery of the very first oncogene aberrations and tumorigenesis suppression by differentiation in the 80s; the potential role of suppressor genes in the 90s; the relevance of immunotherapy in the millennium first, and the discovery of additional mutations by NGS technology in the millennium second decade. Similar discoveries were achieved in the majority of human cancers, and similar therapeutic interventions were obtained subsequently to NBL discoveries. Unfortunately, targeted therapies suggested by specific mutations (such as MYCN amplification –MNA- present in ¼ or 1/5 of cases) have not elicited therapeutic successes in aggressive NBL, where the prognosis is still dismal. The reasons appear to be linked to Tumor Heterogeneity, which is particularly evident in NBL but also a clear hallmark of aggressive human cancers generally. The new avenue of cancer immunotherapy (CIT) provided new hopes for cancer patients, but we still ignore the cellular or molecular targets. CIT is emblematic of high-risk disease (HR-NBL) since the mentioned GD2 passive immunotherapy is still providing better survival. We recently critically reviewed and evaluated the literature depicting the genomic landscapes of HR-NBL, coming to the qualified conclusion that among hundreds of affected genes, potential targets, or chromosomal sites, none correlated with anti-GD2 sensitivity. A better explanation is provided by the Micro-Foci inducing Virus (MFV) model, which predicts that neuroblasts infection with the MFV, an RNA virus isolated from a cancer-cluster (space-time association) of HR-NBL cases, elicits the appearance of MNA and additional genomic aberrations with mechanisms resembling chromothripsis. Neuroblasts infected with low titers of MFV amplified MYCN up to 100 folds and became highly transformed and malignant, thus causing neuroblastoma in young rat pups of strains SD and Fisher-344 and larger tumor masses in nu/nu mice. An association was discovered with GD2 since this glycosphingolipid is also the receptor for the family of MFV virus (dsRNA viruses). It is concluded that a dsRNA virus, MFV, appears to provide better explicatory mechanisms for the genesis of i) specific genomic aberrations such as MNA; ii) extensive tumor heterogeneity and chromothripsis; iii) the effects of passive immunotherapy with anti-GD2 monoclonals and that this and similar models should be further investigated in both pediatric and adult cancers.

Keywords: neuroblastoma, MYCN, amplification, viruses, GD2

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Authors: Rahman Mofidi, Sina Rahimi, Farnoosh Darban

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Communication plays a key role in today’s world, and to support it, the quality of service has the highest priority. It is very important to differentiate between traffic based on priority level. Some traffic classes should be a higher priority than other classes. It is also necessary to give high priority to customers who have more payment for better service, however, without influence on other customers. So to realize that, we will require effective quality of service methods. To ensure the optimal performance of the network in accordance with the quality of service is an important goal for all operators in the mobile network. In this work, we propose an algorithm based on control parameters which it’s based on user feedback that aims at minimizing the access to system transmit power and thus improving the network key performance indicators and increasing the quality of service. This feedback that is known as channel quality indicator (CQI) indicates the received signal level of the user. We aim at proposing an algorithm in control parameter criterion to study improving the quality of service and throughput in a cellular network at the simulated environment. In this work we tried to parameter values have close to their actual level. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm improves the system throughput and thus satisfies users' throughput and improves service to set up a successful call.

Keywords: quality of service, key performance indicators, control parameter, channel quality indicator

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Authors: Shahad Alkhalifah, Jonh Wright

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Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a pervasive developmental disorder associated, for 42% to 88% of people with ASD, with sensory processing disorders. Sensory processing disorders (SPD) impact daily functioning, and it is, therefore, essential to be able to diagnose them accurately. Currently, however, there is no assessment tool available for the Saudi Arabia (SA) population that would cover a wider enough age range. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the psychometric properties of the Sensory Processing Measure Preschool-Home Form (SPM-P) when used in English, with a population of English-speaking Saudi participants. This was chosen due to time limitations and the urgency in providing practitioners with appropriate tools. Using a convenience sampling approach group of caregivers of typically developing (TD) children and a group of caregivers for children with ASD were recruited (N = 40 and N = 16, respectively), and completed the SPM-P Home Form. Participants were also invited to complete it again after two weeks for test-retest reliability, and respectively, nine and five agreed. Reliability analyses suggested some issues with a few items when used in the Saudi culture, and, along with interscale correlations, it highlighted concerns with the factor structure. However, it was also found that the SPM-P Home has good criterion-based validity, and it is, therefore, suggested that it can be used until a tool is developed through translation and cultural adaptation. It is also suggested that the current factor structure of SPM-P Home is reassessed using a large sample.

Keywords: autism, sensory, assessment, reliability, sensory processing dysfunction, preschool, validity

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Authors: Maryam Beiranvand

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Multi-drug resistance in various microorganisms has increased globally in many healthcare facilities. Less effective antimicrobial activity of drug therapies for infection control becomes trouble. Since 1980, no new type of antimicrobial drug has been identified, even though combinations of antibiotic drugs have been discovered almost every decade. Between 1981 and 2006, over 70% of novel pharmaceuticals and chemical agents came from natural sources. Microorganisms have yielded almost 22,000 natural compounds. The identification of antimicrobial components from endophytes bacteria could help overcome the threat posed by multi-drug resistant strains. The project aims to analyze and identify antimicrobial peptides isolated from entophytic bacteria and their activity against multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria in South Korea. Endophytic Paenibacillus polymyxa. 4G3 isolated from the plant, Gynura procumbery exhibited considerable antimicrobial activity against Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli. The Rapid Annotations using Subsystems Technology showed that the total size of the draft genome was 5,739,603bp, containing 5178 genes with 45.8% G+C content. Genome annotation using antiSMASH version 6.0.0 was performed, which predicted the most common types of non-ribosomal peptide synthetase (NRPS) and polyketide synthase (PKS). In this study, diethyl aminoethyl cellulose (DEAEC) resin was used as the first step in purifying for unknown peptides, and then the target protein was identified using hydrophilic and hydrophobic solutions, optimal pH, and step-by-step tests for antimicrobial activity. This crude was subjected to C18 chromatography and elution with 0, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, and 100% methanol, respectively. Only the fraction eluted with 20% -60% methanol demonstrated good antimicrobial activity against MDR E. coli. The concentration of the active fragment was measured by the Brad-ford test, and Protein A280 - Thermo Fisher Scientific at the end by examining the SDS PAGE Resolving Gel, 10% Acrylamide and purity were confirmed. Our study showed that, based on the combined results of the analysis and purification. P polymyxa. 4G3 has a high potential exists for producing novel functions of polymyxin E and bacitracin against bacterial pathogens.

Keywords: endophytic bacteria, antimicrobial activity, antimicrobial peptide, whole genome sequencing analysis, multi -drug resistance gram negative bacteria

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Authors: Luís Miguel Cabeça Marques, Alberto Manuel Martinho Vale, José Pedro Miragaia Trancoso Vaz, Ana Sofia Baptista Fernandes, Rui Alexandre de Barros Coito, Tiago Miguel Prates da Costa

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The detection and localization of hidden radioactive sources are of significant importance in countering the illicit traffic of Special Nuclear Materials and other radioactive sources and materials. Radiation portal monitors are commonly used at airports, seaports, and international land borders for inspecting cargo and vehicles. However, these equipment can be expensive and are not available at all checkpoints. Consequently, the localization of SNM and other radioactive sources often relies on handheld equipment, which can be time-consuming. The current study presents the advantages of real-time analysis of gamma-ray count rate data from a mobile radiation detection system based on simulated data and field tests. The incorporation of profit functions and decision criteria to optimize the detection system's path significantly enhances the radiation field information and reduces survey time during cargo inspection. For source position estimation, a maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is employed, and confidence intervals are derived using the Fisher information. The study also explores the impact of uncertainties, baselines, and thresholds on the performance of the profit function. The proposed detection system, utilizing a plastic scintillator with silicon photomultiplier sensors, boasts several benefits, including cost-effectiveness, high geometric efficiency, compactness, and lightweight design. This versatility allows for seamless integration into any mobile platform, be it air, land, maritime, or hybrid, and it can also serve as a handheld device. Furthermore, integration of the detection system into drones, particularly multirotors, and its affordability enable the automation of source search and substantial reduction in survey time, particularly when deploying a fleet of drones. While the primary focus is on inspecting maritime container cargo, the methodologies explored in this research can be applied to the inspection of other infrastructures, such as nuclear facilities or vehicles.

Keywords: plastic scintillators, profit functions, path planning, gamma-ray detection, source localization, mobile radiation detection system, security scenario

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Authors: Hummad Ch. Umar

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Most of the developing economies, including Pakistan, are confronted with high level of external debt which is adversely affecting their economic performance. The hypothesis of debt overhang is often used to assess the negative relationship between foreign debt and the economic growth of the indebted country. As first objective of the present study, this hypothesis is tested by using Pooled OLS (POLS), Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), Random Effect (RE), and Fixed effect (FE) techniques. As second objective, the study uses the concept of debt Laffer Curve to determine the eligibility condition of the indebted countries for the relief programs. According to this approach, countries lying on the right side of the Laffer Curve are stated to be trapped in the strong debt overhang making them unable to come out of the vicious circle of low growth and high foreign debt. The empirical analysis confirms that only two countries out of twenty two completely fulfill the conditions of being eligible for the debt relief. All other countries continue to face debt burden of different magnitudes. The study further confirms that the debt relief alone is not sufficient for overcoming the debt problem. Instead, sound economic policies and conducive investment decisions are required to lay the foundations of long-term growth and development. Debt relief should be the option for only those countries that meet a minimum measurable criterion of good governance, economic freedom, and consistency of policies.

Keywords: external debt, debt burden, debt overhang, debt laffer curve, debt relief, investment decisions

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Authors: Michael Dreyfuss, Yahel Giat

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Limited battery range and long recharging times are the greatest obstacles to the successful adoption of electric cars. One of the suggestions to overcome these problems is that carmakers retain ownership of batteries and provide battery swapping service so that customers exchange their depleted batteries for recharged batteries. Motivated by this example, we consider the problem of optimal spares allocation in an exchangeable-item, multi-location repair system. We generalize the standard service measures of fill rate and average waiting time to reflect the fact that customers penalize the service provider only if they have to wait more than a ‘tolerable’ time window. These measures are denoted as the window fill rate and the truncated waiting time, respectively. We find that the truncated waiting time is convex and therefore a greedy algorithm solves the spares allocation problem efficiently. We show that the window fill rate is generally S-shaped and describe an efficient algorithm to find a near-optimal solution and detail a priori and a posteriori upper bounds to the distance from optimum. The theory is complemented with a large scale numerical example demonstrating the spare battery allocation in battery swapping stations.

Keywords: convex-concave optimization, exchangeable item, M/G/infinity, multiple location, repair system, spares allocation, window fill rate

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Andrey V. Malyshev, Anna B. Petrova, Anatoly P. Surzhikov

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The article presents the results of the influence of diamagnetic additives on the defects level of ferrite ceramics. For this purpose, we use a previously developed method based on the mathematical analysis of experimental temperature dependences of the initial permeability. A phenomenological expression for the description of such dependence was suggested and an interpretation of its main parameters was given. It was shown, that the main criterion of the integral defects level of ferrite ceramics is the relation of two parameters correlating with elastic stress value in a material. Model samples containing a controlled number of intergranular phase inclusions served to prove the validity of the proposed method, as well as to assess its sensitivity in comparison with the traditional XRD (X-ray diffraction) analysis. The broadening data of diffraction reflexes of model samples have served for such comparison. The defects level data obtained by the proposed method are in good agreement with the X-ray data. The method showed high sensitivity. Therefore, the legitimacy of the selection relationship β/α parameters of phenomenological expression as a characteristic of the elastic state of the ferrite ceramics confirmed. In addition, the obtained data can be used in the detection of non-magnetic phases and testing the optimal sintering production technology of soft magnetic ferrites.

Keywords: cure point, initial permeability, integral defects level, homogeneity

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Keiko Sakai

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In Japan, all stages of public education aim to foster a zest for life. ‘Zest’ implies solving problems by oneself, using acquired knowledge and skills. It is related to the self-regulation of metacognition. To enhance this, establishing good learning habits is important. Tardiness in undergraduate students should be examined based on self-regulation. Accordingly, we focussed on self-monitoring and self-planning strategies among self-regulated learning factors to examine the causes of tardiness. This study examines the impact of self-monitoring and self-planning learning skills on the degree and reason for tardiness in undergraduate students. A questionnaire survey was conducted, targeted to undergraduate students in University X in the autumn semester of 2018. Participants were 247 (average age 19.7, SD 1.9; 144 males, 101 females, 2 no answers). The survey contained the following items and measures: school year, the number of classes in the semester, degree of tardiness in the semester (subjective degree and objective times), active participation in and action toward schoolwork, self-planning and self-monitoring learning skills, and reason for tardiness (open-ended question). First, the relation between strategies and tardiness was examined by multiple regressions. A statistically significant relationship between a self-monitoring learning strategy and the degree of subjective and objective tardiness was revealed, after statistically controlling the school year and the number of classes. There was no significant relationship between a self-planning learning strategy and the degree of tardiness. These results suggest that self-monitoring skills reduce tardiness. Secondly, the relation between a self-monitoring learning strategy and the reason of tardiness was analysed, after classifying the reason for tardiness into one of seven categories: ‘overslept’, ‘illness’, ‘poor time management’, ‘traffic delays’, ‘carelessness’, ‘low motivation’, and ‘stuff to do’. Chi-square tests and Fisher’s exact tests showed a statistically significant relationship between a self-monitoring learning strategy and the frequency of ‘traffic delays’. This result implies that self-monitoring skills prevent tardiness because of traffic delays. Furthermore, there was a weak relationship between a self-monitoring learning strategy score and the reason-for-tardiness categories. When self-monitoring skill is higher, a decrease in ‘overslept’ and ‘illness’, and an increase in ‘poor time management’, ‘carelessness’, and ‘low motivation’ are indicated. It is suggested that a self-monitoring learning strategy is related to an internal causal attribution of failure and self-management for how to prevent tardiness. From these findings, the effectiveness of a self-monitoring learning skill strategy for reducing tardiness in undergraduate students is indicated.

Keywords: higher-education, self-monitoring, self-regulation, tardiness

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Authors: Franklin Chu Buh, Irene Ule Ngole Sumbele, Andrew I. R. Maas, Mathieu Motah, Jogi V. Pattisapu, Eric Youm, Basil Kum Meh, Firas H. Kobeissy, Kevin W. Wang, Peter J. A. Hutchinson, Germain Sotoing Taiwe

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Introduction: Studying TBI characteristics and their relation to outcomes can identify initiatives to improve TBI prevention and care. The objective of this study was to define the features and outcomes of TBI patients seen over a 1-year period in a level-I trauma center in Cameroon. Methods: Data on demographics, causes, injury mechanisms, clinical aspects, and discharge status were prospectively collected over a period of 12 months. The Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) and the Quality of Life Questionnaire after Brain Injury (QoLIBRI) were used to evaluate outcomes 6-months after TBI. Categorical variables were described as frequencies and percentages. Comparisons between 2 categorical variables were done using Pearson's Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. Results: A total of 160 TBI patients participated in the study. The age group 15-45 years (78%; 125) was most represented. Males were more affected (90%; 144). Low educational level was recorded in 122 (76%) cases. Road traffic incidents (RTI) were the main cause of TBI (85%), with professional bike riders being frequently involved (27%, 43/160). Assaults (7.5%) and falls (2.5%) represent the second and third most common causes of TBI in Cameroon, respectively. Only 15 patients were transported to the hospital by ambulance, and 14 of these were from a referring hospital. CT-imaging was performed in 78% (125/160) of cases intracranial traumatic abnormality was identified in 77/125 (64%) cases. Financial constraints were the main reason for not performing a CT scan on 35 patients. A total of 46 (33%) patients were discharged against medical advice (DAMA) due to financial constraints. Mortality was 14% (22/160) but disproportionately high in patients with severe TBI (46%). DAMA had poor outcomes with QoLIBRI. Only 4 patients received post-injury physiotherapy services. Conclusion: TBI in Cameroon mainly results from RTIs and commonly affects young adult males, and low educational or socioeconomic status and commercial bike riding appear to be predisposing factors. Lack of pre-hospital care, financial constraints limiting both CT-scanning and medical care, and lack of acute physiotherapy services likely influenced care and outcomes adversely.

Keywords: characteristics, traumatic brain injury, outcome, disparities in care, prospective study

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: Yun-Ru Tsai, Jo-Hui Lin

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The cultural interactions between tourists and destination communities have received increased attention. Tourists play an important role in constructing a rewarding intercultural experience and cultural understanding. Cultural literacy is the ability for tourists to negotiate different cultures, this research aimed to develop a measurement of Tourist Cultural Literacy (TCL), the result provides a theoretical framework to assess how tourists interact with different cultural destinations. A pilot qualitative research was conducted in order to generate the initial items. In this study, the procedure of developing the TCL scale was divided into two parts. First, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted, a 25-item TCL scale was developed and six factors were identified: cultural sensitivity, appreciation of the culture, respect for the culture, knowledge of the culture, participate in the culture, and empathy for the culture. Second, confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation modeling were employed, the six-factor model was verified, and was proven to have good fit, reliability, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and criterion-related validity. The study provides managerial implications for tourist management and education, the popularization of TCL might increase the respect and understanding between tourists and local societies as well as decrease the cultural shocks and negative social-cultural impacts derived from tourism activities, thereby reducing the maintenance cost of management and allowing tourists to obtain a better cultural experience. Future research suggestions are also provided.

Keywords: cultural literacy, cultural tourism, scale development, tourism contact

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Authors: Hsu Kuo-Wei, Tan Roon Fang, Chao Jen-chih

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Cities face environmental challenges, including over-urbanization issues, air and water quality issues, lack of green space, excess heat capture, polluted storm water runoff and lack of ecological biodiversity. The vertical farming holds the condition of technology addressing these issues by enabling more food to be produced with finite less resources use and space. Most of the existing research regarding to technology Industry of agriculture between plant factory and vertical greening, which with high costs and high-technology. Relative research developed a sustainable model for construction and operation of the vertical farm in urban housing which aims to revolutionize our daily life of food production and urban development. However, those researches focused on quantitative analysis. This study utilized relative research for key variables of benefits of vertical farming. In the second stage, utilizes Fuzzy Delphi Method to obtain the critical factors of benefits of vertical farming using in Urban Renewal by interviewing the foregoing experts. Then, Analytic Hierarchy Process is applied to find the importance degree of each criterion as the measurable indices of the vertical farming method in urban renewal within the older city of Taichung.

Keywords: urban renewal, vertical farming, urban agriculture, benefit analysis, the older city of Taichung

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Authors: Nurullah Ekmekci, Omer Akkaya, Vural Cagliyan

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Increased use of the Internet has resulted in the emergence of a new retail types called online shopping or electronic retail (e-retail). The rapid growth of the Internet has enabled customers to search information about the product and buy these products or services from e-retailers. Although this new form of shopping has grown in a remarkable way because of offering easiness to people, it is not an easy task to capture the success by distinguishing from competitors in this environment which millions of players takes place. For the success, e-retailers should determine the factors which the customers take notice while they are buying from e-retailers. This paper aims to identify the factors that provide preferability for the online shopping websites and the importance levels of these factors. These main criteria which have taken notice are Customer Service Performance (CSP), Website Performance (WSP), Criteria Related to Product (CRP), Ease of Payment (EP), Security/Privacy (SP), Ease of Return (ER), Delivery Service Performance (DSP) and Order Fulfillment Performance (OFP). It has benefited from Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the priority of the criteria. Based on analysis, Security/Privacy (SP) criteria seems to be most important criterion with 22 % weight. Companies should attach importance to the security and privacy for making their online website more preferable among the online shoppers.

Keywords: AHP (analytical hierarchy process), multi-criteria decision making, online shopping, shopping

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Authors: Nagaletchumi Balasubramaniam, A. Mohd Isa

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Engineers have a leading role in planning, designing, building and ensuring a sustainable future. Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN) acknowledges this role by assigning sustainable development as one of the expected traits that a UNITEN student should have upon graduation, formalized as the Programme Outcomes 7 (PO7): Students graduating from the Bachelor of Electrical and Electronics (BEEE) program will have the ability to demonstrate knowledge of the impact of professional engineering solutions in environmental contexts and the need for sustainable development. This paper explores how PO7 is integrated within the BEEE (Hons) program in UNITEN under the framework of Outcome Base Education (OBE). Five technical core courses were specifically assigned by UNITEN to reflect attainment of PO7. Under UNITEN’s definition, the attainment criterion of a PO is set as 70/40. This means that 70% of the students taking the course achieve at least 40% of the full marks. The paper first gives an overview of the overall OBE system as applied in UNITEN, particularly describing the key and supporting courses approach adopted for each PO. Then, the paper reviews the mechanism in which PO7 is taught and assessed in the five assigned courses. Data on PO7 attainment from four of the five courses are collected and analyzed for two student cohorts to investigate the interrelationship between the courses assigned to PO7. It was found that the five courses have different mechanisms for assessing PO7, and that generally PO7 is attained for the assigned courses. This reflects positively on the UNITEN method for integrating sustainable development within the engineering undergraduate programme.

Keywords: direct assessment, engineering education, outcome base education, programme outcome, sustainable development

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Authors: Elham Zabetian Targhi, Niusha Fardnava, Saba Saghafi

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Urban resilience to Corona Virus has become a major concern for cities these days. Our country also has not been safe from the destructive effects of this virus in social, economic, physical, governance, and management dimensions; and according to official statistics, hundreds of thousands of people in Iran have been infected with this virus and tens of thousands have died so far. Therefore, to measure urban resilience to this pandemic, some criteria and sub-criteria were developed based on the authors’ documentary and field studies, and their significance or weights were determined using analytical-comparative research method using a questionnaire of paired or L-Saati comparisons from the viewpoint of experts in urban sciences and urban development using AHP hierarchical analysis in EXPERT CHOICE software. Then, designing a questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale, the satisfaction of Tehran residents with the extracted criteria and sub-criteria was measured and the correlation between the important criteria in each dimension was assessed using correlation tests in SPSS16 software. According to the obtained results of AHP analysis and the scores of each sub-criterion, the weight of all criteria was normal. In the next stage, according to the pairwise correlation tests between the important criteria in each dimension from the viewpoint of urban science experts and Tehran residents, it was concluded that the reliability of the correlation between the criteria is 99%. In all the cases, the P-value or the same significance level was less than 0.05, which indicated the significance of the pairwise relations between the variables.

Keywords: Urban Resilience, Pandemics, Corona Virus (Covid-19), Criteria.

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Authors: Tania Bose, Minto Rattan, Neeraj Chamoli

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In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the effect of thermal gradation on the steady-state creep behavior of rotating isotropic disc made of functionally graded material using threshold stress based Sherby’s creep law. The composite discs made of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon carbide particulate have been taken for analysis. The stress and strain rate distributions have been calculated for the discs rotating at elevated temperatures having thermal gradation. The material parameters of creep vary radially and have been estimated by regression fit of the available experimental data. Investigations for discs made up of linearly increasing particle content operating under linearly decreasing temperature from inner to outer radii have been done using von Mises’ yield criterion. The results are displayed and compared graphically in designer friendly format for the above said disc profile with the disc made of particle reinforced composite operating under uniform temperature profile. It is observed that radial and tangential stresses show minor variation and the strain rates vary significantly in the presence of thermal gradation as compared to disc having uniform temperature.

Keywords: creep, isotropic, steady-state, thermal gradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 218