Search results for: monthly rainfall

Authors: Carolina S. Monteiro, Eugénia Pinto, Miguel A. Faria, Sara C. Cunha

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Rice (Oryza sativa) production plays a vital role in reducing hunger and poverty and assumes particular importance in low-income and developing countries. Rice is a sensitive plant, and production occurs strictly where suitable temperature and water conditions are found. Climatic changes are likely to affect worldwide, and some models have predicted increased temperatures, variations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and modification in precipitation patterns. Therefore, the ongoing climatic changes threaten rice production by increasing biotic and abiotic stress factors, and crops will grow in different environmental conditions in the following years. Around the world, the effects will be regional and can be detrimental or advantageous depending on the region. Mediterranean zones have been identified as possible hot spots, where dramatic temperature changes, modifications of CO₂ levels, and rainfall patterns are predicted. The actual estimated atmospheric CO₂ concentration is around 400 ppm, and it is predicted that it can reach up to 1000–1200 ppm, which can lead to a temperature increase of 2–4 °C. Alongside, rainfall patterns are also expected to change, with more extreme wet/dry episodes taking place. As a result, it could increase the migration of pathogens, and a shift in the occurrence of mycotoxins, concerning their types and concentrations, is expected. Mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi can colonize the crops and be present in all rice food chain supplies, especially Penicillium species, mainly resulting in ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination. In this scenario, the objectives of the present study are evaluating the effect of temperature (20 vs. 25 °C), CO₂ (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.93 vs 0.95 water activity) on growth and OTA production by a Penicillium nordicum strain in vitro on rice-based media and when colonizing layers of raw rice. Results demonstrate the effect of temperature, CO₂ and drought on the OTA production in a rice-based environment, thus contributing to the development of mycotoxins predictive models in climate change scenarios. As a result, improving mycotoxins' surveillance and monitoring systems, whose occurrence can be more frequent due to climatic changes, seems relevant and necessary. The development of prediction models for hazard contaminants presents in foods highly sensitive to climatic changes, such as mycotoxins, in the highly probable new agricultural scenarios is of paramount importance.

Keywords: climate changes, ochratoxin A, penicillium, rice

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Authors: Tahri Toufik, Bouchachia Mohamed, Braikia Oussama

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The objective of this work is the design and optimization of a hybrid PV-Diesel-Wind power system with storage in order to power a relay antenna telecommunication isolated in Chlef region. The aim of the simulation of this hybrid system by the HOMER software is to determine the size and the number of each element of the system and to determine the optimal technical and economic configuration using monthly average values per year for a fixed charge antenna relay telecommunication of 22kWh/d.

Keywords: HOMER, hybrid, PV-diesel-wind system, relay antenna telecommunication

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Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

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This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

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Authors: Adedayo Adeleke, Dineo Pule

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The ongoing load-shedding in most parts of South Africa, combined with climate change causing severe drought conditions in Cape Town, has left electricity consumers seeking alternative sources of power and water. Solar energy, which is abundant in most parts of South Africa and is regarded as a clean and renewable source of energy, allows for the generation of electricity via solar photovoltaic systems. Rainwater harvesting is the collection and storage of rainwater from building rooftops, allowing people without access to water to collect it. The lack of dependable energy and water source must be addressed by shifting to solar energy via solar photovoltaic systems and rainwater harvesting. Before this can be done, the potential of building rooftops must be assessed to determine whether solar energy and rainwater harvesting will be able to meet or significantly contribute to Atlantis industrial areas' electricity and water demands. This research project presents methods and approaches for automatically extracting building rooftops in Atlantis industrial areas and evaluating their potential for solar photovoltaics and rainwater harvesting systems using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and aerial imagery. The four objectives were to: (1) identify an optimal method of extracting building rooftops from aerial imagery and LiDAR data; (2) identify a suitable solar radiation model that can provide a global solar radiation estimate of the study area; (3) estimate solar photovoltaic potential overbuilding rooftop; and (4) estimate the amount of rainwater that can be harvested from the building rooftop in the study area. Mapflow, a plugin found in Quantum Geographic Information System(GIS) was used to automatically extract building rooftops using aerial imagery. The mean annual rainfall in Cape Town was obtained from a 29-year rainfall period (1991- 2020) and used to calculate the amount of rainwater that can be harvested from building rooftops. The potential for rainwater harvesting and solar photovoltaic systems was assessed, and it can be concluded that there is potential for these systems but only to supplement the existing resource supply and offer relief in times of drought and load-shedding.

Keywords: roof potential, rainwater harvesting, urban plan, roof extraction

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Authors: Razaq A. Olaitan, Ayansina Ayanlade

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Understanding aerosol properties is the main goal of global research in order to lower the uncertainty associated with climate change in the trends and magnitude of aerosol particles. In order to identify aerosol particle types, optical properties, and the relationship between aerosol properties and particle concentration between 2019 and 2021, a study conducted in Ilorin, Nigeria, examined the aerosol robotic network's ground-based sun/sky scanning radiometer. The AERONET algorithm version 2 was utilized to retrieve monthly data on aerosol optical depth and angstrom exponent. The version 3 algorithm, which is an almucantar level 2 inversion, was employed to retrieve daily data on single scattering albedo and aerosol size distribution. Excel 2016 was used to analyze the data's monthly, seasonal, and annual mean averages. The distribution of different types of aerosols was analyzed using scatterplots, and the optical properties of the aerosol were investigated using pertinent mathematical theorems. To comprehend the relationships between particle concentration and properties, correlation statistics were employed. Based on the premise that aerosol characteristics must remain constant in both magnitude and trend across time and space, the study's findings indicate that the types of aerosols identified between 2019 and 2021 are as follows: 29.22% urban industrial (UI) aerosol type, 37.08% desert (D) aerosol type, 10.67% biomass burning (BB), and 23.03% urban mix (Um) aerosol type. Convective wind systems, which frequently carry particles as they blow over long distances in the atmosphere, have been responsible for the peak-of-the-columnar aerosol loadings, which were observed during August of the study period. The study has shown that while coarse mode particles dominate, fine particles are increasing in seasonal and annual trends. Burning biomass and human activities in the city are linked to these trends. The study found that the majority of particles are highly absorbing black carbon, with the fine mode having a volume median radius of 0.08 to 0.12 meters. The investigation also revealed that there is a positive coefficient of correlation (r = 0.57) between changes in aerosol particle concentration and changes in aerosol properties. Human activity is rapidly increasing in Ilorin, causing changes in aerosol properties, indicating potential health risks from climate change and human influence on geological and environmental systems.

Keywords: aerosol loading, aerosol types, health risks, optical properties

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Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

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Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

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Authors: Akinwumi Omotayo, Badu-B Apraku, Joseph Olobasola, Petra Abdul Saghir, Yinka Sobowale

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In southwestern Nigeria, climate change has led to loss of at least two months of rainfall. Consequently, only one cycle of maize can now be grown because of the shorter duration of rainy season as against two cycles in the past. The Early and Extra-early maturing varieties of maize were originally developed for the semi-arid and arid zones of West and Central Africa where there are seasonal challenges of water threatening optimum performance of the traditional maize grown, which are commonly late in maturity (115 to 120 days). The early varieties of maize mature in 90 to 95 days; while the Extra-Early maize varieties reach physiological maturity in less than 90 days. It was broadly hypothesized that the extra early varieties of maize could mitigate the effects of climate change in southwestern Nigeria with higher levels of rainfall by reinstating the original two cycles of rain-fed maize crop. Trials were therefore carried out in southwestern Nigeria on the possibility of adapting the extra early maize to mitigate the effects of climate change. The trial was the Mother/Baby design. The mother trial involves the evaluation of extra-early varieties following ideal recommendations and closely supervised centrally at the University research farm and the Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPs). This requires farmers to observe and evaluate the technology and the management regime meant to precede the second stage of evaluation at several satellite farmers field managed by selected farmers. The Baby Trial is expected to provide a realistic assessment of the technology by farmers in their own environment. A stratified selection of thirty farmers for the Baby Trial ensured appropriate representation across the different categories of the farming population by age and gender. Data from the trials indicate that extra early maize can be grown in two cycles rain fed in south west Nigeria and a third and fourth cycle could be obtained with irrigation. However the long duration varieties outyielded the extra early maize in both the mother and baby trials. When harvested green, the extra early maize served as source of food between March and May when there was scarcity of food. This represents a major advantage. The study recommends that further work needs to be done to improve the yield of extra early maize to encourage farmers to adopt.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, extra early, maize varieties, mitigation

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Authors: Houcine Naim, Abdelatif Hassini, Noureddine Benabadji, Alex Van Den Bossche

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In this paper, two models to estimate the overall monthly average daily radiation on a horizontal surface were applied to the site of Oran (35.38 ° N, 0.37 °W). We present a comparison between the first one is a regression equation of the Angstrom type and the second model is developed by the present authors some modifications were suggested using as input parameters: the astronomical parameters as (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and meteorological parameters as (relative humidity). The comparisons are made using the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean absolute bias error (MABE). This comparison shows that the second model is closer to the experimental values that the model of Angstrom.

Keywords: meteorology, global radiation, Angstrom model, Oran

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Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva

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In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: export, import, innovation, patents

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Authors: Mahesh Kothari, K. D. Gharde

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The ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) models were developed to predict the runoff and sediment yield for catchment of Kal river, India using 21 years (1991 to 2011) rainfall and other hydrological data (evaporation, temperature and streamflow lag by one and two day) and 7 years data for sediment yield modelling. The ANN model performance improved with increasing the input vectors. The fuzzy logic model was performing with R value more than 0.95 during developmental stage and validation stage. The comparatively FL model found to be performing well to ANN in prediction of runoff and sediment yield for Kal river.

Keywords: transferred function, sigmoid, backpropagation, membership function, defuzzification

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Authors: Tetyana Kendzerska, David T. Zhu, Michael Pugliese, Douglas Manuel, Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Marcus Povitz, Therese A. Stukel, Teresa To, Shawn D. Aaron, Sunita Mulpuru, Melanie Chin, Claire E. Kendall, Kednapa Thavorn, Rebecca Robillard, Andrea S. Gershon

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) remains unknown. To compare observed and expected (projected based on previous years) trends in all-cause mortality and healthcare use for ACSCs in the first year of the pandemic (March 2020 - March 2021). A population-based study using provincial health administrative data.General adult population (Ontario, Canada). Monthly all-cause mortality, and hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) and outpatient visit rates (per 100,000 people at-risk) for seven combined ACSCs (asthma, COPD, angina, congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy) during the first year were compared with similar periods in previous years (2016-2019) by fitting monthly time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models. Compared to previous years, all-cause mortality rates increased at the beginning of the pandemic (observed rate in March-May 2020 of 79.98 vs. projected of 71.24 [66.35-76.50]) and then returned to expected in June 2020—except among immigrants and people with mental health conditions where they remained elevated. Hospitalization and ED visit rates for ACSCs remained lower than projected throughout the first year: observed hospitalization rate of 37.29 vs. projected of 52.07 (47.84-56.68); observed ED visit rate of 92.55 vs. projected of 134.72 (124.89-145.33). ACSC outpatient visit rates decreased initially (observed rate of 4,299.57 vs. projected of 5,060.23 [4,712.64-5,433.46]) and then returned to expected in June 2020. Reductions in outpatient visits for ACSCs at the beginning of the pandemic combined with reduced hospital admissions may have been associated with temporally increased mortality—disproportionately experienced by immigrants and those with mental health conditions. The Ottawa Hospital Academic Medical Organization

Keywords: COVID-19, chronic disease, all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, outpatient visits, modelling, population-based study, asthma, COPD, angina, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, epilepsy

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Authors: K. C. R.Perera, V. P. C Dassanayake, B. M. Hapuwatte, B. G. Smapath

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This paper presents a methodology to harvest the kinetic energy of the raindrops using piezoelectric devices. In the study 1m×1m PVDF (Polyvinylidene fluoride) piezoelectric membrane, which is fixed by the four edges, is considered for the numerical simulation on deformation of the membrane due to the impact of the raindrops. Then according to the drop size of the rain, the simulation is performed classifying the rainfall types into three categories as light stratiform rain, moderate stratiform rain and heavy thundershower. The impact force of the raindrop is dependent on the terminal velocity of the raindrop, which is a function of raindrop diameter. The results were then analyzed to calculate the harvestable energy from the deformation of the piezoelectric membrane.

Keywords: raindrop, piezoelectricity, deformation, terminal velocity

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Authors: Oindrila Nath, S. Sridharan

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Long-term (2002-2012) temperature and ozone measurements by Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite zonally averaged over 10°N-15°N are used to study their long-term changes and their responses to solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation and El Nino Southern Oscillation. The region is selected to provide more accurate long-term trends and variabilities, which were not possible earlier with lidar measurements over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), which are limited to cloud-free nights, whereas continuous data sets of SABER temperature and ozone are available. Regression analysis of temperature shows a cooling trend of 0.5K/decade in the stratosphere and that of 3K/decade in the mesosphere. Ozone shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of 1.3 ppmv per decade in the mesosphere although there is a small positive trend in stratosphere at 25 km. Other than this no significant ozone trend is observed in stratosphere. Negative ozone-QBO response (0.02ppmv/QBO), positive ozone-solar cycle (0.91ppmv/100SFU) and negative response to ENSO (0.51ppmv/SOI) have been found more in mesosphere whereas positive ozone response to ENSO (0.23ppmv/SOI) is pronounced in stratosphere (20-30 km). The temperature response to solar cycle is more positive (3.74K/100SFU) in the upper mesosphere and its response to ENSO is negative around 80 km and positive around 90-100 km and its response to QBO is insignificant at most of the heights. Composite monthly mean of ozone volume mixing ratio shows maximum values during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season in middle stratosphere (25-30 km) and in upper mesosphere (85-95 km) around 10 ppmv. Composite monthly mean of temperature shows semi-annual variation with large values (~250-260 K) in equinox months and less values in solstice months in upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (40-55 km) whereas the SAO becomes weaker above 55 km. The semi-annual variation again appears at 80-90 km, with large values in spring equinox and winter months. In the upper mesosphere (90-100 km), less temperature (~170-190 K) prevails in all the months except during September, when the temperature is slightly more. The height profiles of amplitudes of semi-annual and annual oscillations in ozone show maximum values of 6 ppmv and 2.5 ppmv respectively in upper mesosphere (80-100 km), whereas SAO and AO in temperature show maximum values of 5.8 K and 4.6 K in lower and middle mesosphere around 60-85 km. The phase profiles of both SAO and AO show downward progressions. These results are being compared with long-term lidar temperature measurements over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and the results obtained will be presented during the meeting.

Keywords: trends, QBO, solar cycle, ENSO, ozone, temperature

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Authors: Temitayo Abayomi Ewemoje, Isaac Olugbemiga Afolayan, Badmus Alao Tayo

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Researchers in developing countries have worked on improving cassava resistance to diseases and pests, high yielding and early maturity However, water management has received little or no attention as cassava cultivation in Sub-Saharan Africa depended on available precipitation (rain-fed condition). Therefore the need for water management in Agricultural crop production cannot be overemphasized. As other sectors compete with agricultural sector for fresh water (which is not readily available), there is need to increase water productivity in agricultural production. Experimentation was conducted to examine water use, growth and yield of improved cassava varieties under rain fed condition using Latin- square design with four replications. Four improved disease free stem cassava varieties TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) were planted and growth parameters of the varieties were monitored for 90 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Effective rainfall useful for the plant growth was calculated using CROPWAT8 for Windows. Results indicated TMS090581 was having the highest tuber yield and plant height while TMS30572 had highest number of nodes. Tuber stem and leaf water productivities at 90 and 120 DAP of TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) are (1.27 and 3.58, 1.44 and 2.35, 0.89 and 1.86, 1.64 and 3.77) kg/m3 (1.56 and 2.59, 1.95 and 2.02, 1.98 and 2.05, 1.95 and 2.18) kg/m3, and (1.34 and 2.32, 1.94 and 2.16, 1.57 and 1.40, 1.27 and 1.80) kg/m3 respectively. Based on tuber water productivity TMS090581 are recommended while TMS30572 are recommended based on leaf and stem productivity in water scarce regions.Experimentation was conducted to examine water use, growth and yield of improved cassava varieties under rain fed condition using Latin- square design with four replications. Four improved disease free stem cassava varieties TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) were planted and growth parameters of the varieties were monitored for 90 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Effective rainfall useful for the plant growth was calculated using CROPWAT8 for Windows. Results indicated TMS090581 was having the highest tuber yield and plant height while TMS30572 had the highest number of nodes. Tuber, stem and leaf water productivities at 90 and 120 DAP of TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) are (1.27 and 3.58, 1.44 and 2.35, 0.89 and 1.86, 1.64 and 3.77) kg/m3 (1.56 and 2.59, 1.95 and 2.02, 1.98 and 2.05, 1.95 and 2.18) kg/m3, and (1.34 and 2.32, 1.94 and 2.16, 1.57 and 1.40, 1.27 and 1.80) kg/m3 respectively. Based on tuber water productivity TMS090581 are recommended while TMS30572 are recommended based on leaf and stem productivity in water scarce regions

Keywords: improved TMS varieties, leaf productivity, rain-fed cassava production, stem productivity, tuber productivity

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Authors: Harshan Tee Pee

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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.

Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact

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Authors: Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Chaotic analysis has been performed on the river flow time series before and after applying the wavelet based de-noising techniques in order to investigate the noise content effects on chaotic nature of flow series. In this study, 38 years of monthly runoff data of three gauging stations were used. Gauging stations were located in Ghar-e-Aghaj river basin, Fars province, Iran. The noise level of time series was estimated with the aid of Gaussian kernel algorithm. This step was found to be crucial in preventing removal of the vital data such as memory, correlation and trend from the time series in addition to the noise during de-noising process.

Keywords: chaotic behavior, wavelet, noise reduction, river flow

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Authors: Sofiane Bourchak, Sébastien Bridier

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The objective of this study is to show how to calculate and map solar energy’s quantity (instantaneous and accumulated global solar radiation during the year) available on roofs in the city Aix-en-Provence which has a population of 140,000 inhabitants. The result is a geographic information system (GIS) layer, which represents hourly and monthly the production of solar energy on roofs throughout the year. Solar energy professionals can use it to optimize implementations and to size energy production systems. The results are presented as a set of maps, tables and histograms in order to determine the most effective costs in Aix-en-Provence in terms of photovoltaic power (electricity) and thermal power (hot water).

Keywords: geographic information system, photovoltaic, thermal, solar potential, solar radiation

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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Landslide is the major geo-environmental problem of Himalaya because of high ridges, steep slopes, deep valleys, and complex system of streams. They are mainly triggered by rainfall and earthquake and causing severe damage to life and property. In Uttarakhand, the Tehri reservoir rim area, which is situated in the lesser Himalaya of Garhwal hills, was selected for landslide hazard zonation (LHZ). The study utilized different types of data, including geological maps, topographic maps from the survey of India, Landsat 8, and Cartosat DEM data. This paper presents the use of a weighted overlay method in LHZ using fourteen causative factors. The various data layers generated and co-registered were slope, aspect, relative relief, soil cover, intensity of rainfall, seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, lithology, land use/land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), drainage buffer and reservoir buffer. Seismic analysis is performed using peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) intensity and amplification factors in the evaluation of the landslide hazard index (LHI). Several digital image processing techniques such as topographic correction, NDVI, and supervised classification were widely used in the process of terrain factor extraction. Lithological features, LULC, drainage pattern, lineaments, and structural features are extracted using digital image processing techniques. Colour, tones, topography, and stream drainage pattern from the imageries are used to analyse geological features. Slope map, aspect map, relative relief are created by using Cartosat DEM data. DEM data is also used for the detailed drainage analysis, which includes TWI, SPI, drainage buffer, and reservoir buffer. In the weighted overlay method, the comparative importance of several causative factors obtained from experience. In this method, after multiplying the influence factor with the corresponding rating of a particular class, it is reclassified, and the LHZ map is prepared. Further, based on the land-use map developed from remote sensing images, a landslide vulnerability study for the study area is carried out and presented in this paper.

Keywords: weighted overlay method, GIS, landslide hazard zonation, remote sensing

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Authors: Lahcen Daoudi, Fatima Zahra Omdi, Abldelali Gourfi

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In Morocco, as in most Mediterranean countries, water scarcity is a common situation because of low and unevenly distributed rainfall. The expansions of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas and tourist resorts, contribute to an increase of water demand. Therefore in the 1960s Morocco embarked on an ambitious program to increase the number of dams to boost water retention capacity. However, the decrease in the capacity of these reservoirs caused by sedimentation is a major problem; it is estimated at 75 million m3/year. Dams and reservoirs became unusable for their intended purposes due to sedimentation in large rivers that result from soil erosion. Soil erosion presents an important driving force in the process affecting the landscape. It has become one of the most serious environmental problems that raised much interest throughout the world. Monitoring soil erosion risk is an important part of soil conservation practices. The estimation of soil loss risk is the first step for a successful control of water erosion. The aim of this study is to estimate the soil loss risk and its spatial distribution in the different fields of Morocco and to prioritize areas for soil conservation interventions. The approach followed is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using remote sensing and GIS, which is the most popular empirically based model used globally for erosion prediction and control. This model has been tested in many agricultural watersheds in the world, particularly for large-scale basins due to the simplicity of the model formulation and easy availability of the dataset. The spatial distribution of the annual soil loss was elaborated by the combination of several factors: rainfall erosivity, soil erodability, topography, and land cover. The average annual soil loss estimated in several basins watershed of Morocco varies from 0 to 50t/ha/year. Watersheds characterized by high-erosion-vulnerability are located in the North (Rif Mountains) and more particularly in the Central part of Morocco (High Atlas Mountains). This variation of vulnerability is highly correlated to slope variation which indicates that the topography factor is the main agent of soil erosion within these basin catchments. These results could be helpful for the planning of natural resources management and for implementing sustainable long-term management strategies which are necessary for soil conservation and for increasing over the projected economic life of the dam implemented.

Keywords: soil loss, RUSLE, GIS-remote sensing, watershed, Morocco

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Authors: Linta Rose, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Water-level information along the coast is very important for disaster management, navigation, planning shoreline management, coastal engineering and protection works, port and harbour activities, and for a better understanding of near-shore ocean dynamics. The water-level variation along a coast attributes from various factors like astronomical tides, meteorological and hydrological forcing. The study area is the Head Bay of Bengal which is highly vulnerable to flooding events caused by monsoons, cyclones and sea-level rise. The study aims to explore the extent to which wind and surface pressure can influence water-level elevation, in view of the low-lying topography of the coastal zones in the region. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been customized for the Head Bay of Bengal, discretized using flexible finite elements and validated against tide gauge observations. Monthly mean climatological wind and mean sea level pressure fields of ERA Interim reanalysis data was used as input forcing to simulate water-level variation in the Head Bay of Bengal, in addition to tidal forcing. The output water-level was compared against that produced using tidal forcing alone, so as to quantify the contribution of meteorological forcing to water-level. The average contribution of meteorological fields to water-level in January is 5.5% at a deep-water location and 13.3% at a coastal location. During the month of July, when the monsoon winds are strongest in this region, this increases to 10.7% and 43.1% respectively at the deep-water and coastal locations. The model output was tested by varying the input conditions of the meteorological fields in an attempt to quantify the relative significance of wind speed and wind direction on water-level. Under uniform wind conditions, the results showed a higher contribution of meteorological fields for south-west winds than north-east winds, when the wind speed was higher. A comparison of the spectral characteristics of output water-level with that generated due to tidal forcing alone showed additional modes with seasonal and annual signatures. Moreover, non-linear monthly mode was found to be weaker than during tidal simulation, all of which point out that meteorological fields do not cause much effect on the water-level at periods less than a day and that it induces non-linear interactions between existing modes of oscillations. The study signifies the role of meteorological forcing under fair weather conditions and points out that a combination of multiple forcing fields including tides, wind, atmospheric pressure, waves, precipitation and river discharge is essential for efficient and effective forecast modelling, especially during extreme weather events.

Keywords: ADCIRC, head Bay of Bengal, mean sea level pressure, meteorological forcing, water-level, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Mahmoud M. S. Farrag, Alaa A. K. Elhaweet, El-Sayed Kh. A. Akel, Mohsen A. Moustafa

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The present work aimed to study the reproductive strategy of the common lessepsian puffer fish Lagocephalus sceleratus (Gmelin, 1879) from the Egyptian Mediterranean Waters. It is a famous migratory species plays an important role in the field of fisheries and ecology of aquatic ecosystem. The specimens were collected monthly from the landing centers along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast during 2012. Six maturity stages were recorded: (I) Thread like stage, (II) Immature stage (Virgin stage), (III) Maturing stage (Developing Virgin and recovering spent), (IV) Nearly ripe stage, (V) Fully ripe, (VI) Spawning stage, (VII) Spent stage. According to sex ratio, males exhibited higher number than females representing 52.44 % of the total fishes with sex ratio 1: 0.91. Fish length corresponding to 50% maturation was 38.5 cm for males and 41 cm for females. The corresponding ages (age at first maturity) are equal to 2.14 and 2.27 years for male and female respectively. The ova diameter ranged from 0.02mm to 0.85mm, the mature ova ranged from 0.16mm to 0.85mm and showed progressive increase from April towards September. Also, the presences of ova diameter in one peak of mature and ripe eggs in the ovaries were observed during spawning period. The relationship between gutted weight and absolute fecundity indicated that that fecundity increased as the fish grew in weight. The absolute fecundity ranged from 260288 to 2372931 for fish weight ranged from 698 to 3285 cm with an average of 1449522±720975. The relative fecundity ranged from 373 to 722 for fish weight ranged from 698 to 3285 cm with an average of 776±231. The spawning season of L. sceleratus was investigated from the data of gonado-somatic index and monthly distribution of maturity stages along the year as well as sequence of ova diameter for mature stages and exhibited a relatively prolong spawning season extending from April for both sexes and ends in August for male while ends in September for female. Fish releases its ripe ova in one batch during the spawning season. Histologically, the ovarian cycle of L. sceleratus was classified into six stages and the testicular cycle into five stages. Histological characters of gonads of L. sceleratus during the year of study had confirmed the previous results of distribution of maturity stages, gonado-somatic index and ova diameter, indicating this fish species has prolonged spawning season from April to September. This species is considered totally or uni spawner with synchronous group as it contained one to two developmental stages at the same gonad.

Keywords: Lagocephalus sceleratus, reproductive biology, oogenesis, histology

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Liaqat Ali, Ehsan, Muhammad Shahzad, Nasir Orakzai

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Introduction: Internal optical urethrotomy is the main stay treatment modality in management of urethral stricture. Being minimal invasive with less morbidity, it is commonly performed and favored procedure by urologists across the globe. Although short-term success rate of optical urethrotomy is promising but long-term efficacy of IOU is questionable with high recurrence rate in different studies. Numerous techniques had been adopted to reduce the recurrence after IOU like prolong catheterization and self-clean intermittent catheterization with varying success. Mitomycin C has anti-fibroblast and anti-collagen properties and has been used in trabeculectomy, myringotomy and after keloid scar excision in contemporary surgical practice. Present study according to the best of our knowledge is a pioneer pilot study in Pakistan to determine the efficacy of Mitomycin C in preventing recurrence of urethral stricture after internal optical urethrotomy. Objective: To determine the efficacy of Mitomycin C in reducing the recurrence of anterior urethral stricture after internal optical urethrotomy. Methods: It is a randomized control trial conducted in department of urology, Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Medical Complex Peshawar from March 2011 till December 2013. After approval of hospital ethical committee, we included maximum of 2 cm anterior urethral stricture irrespective of etiology. Total of 140 patients were equally divided into two groups by lottery method. Group A (Case) comprising of 70 patients in whom Mitomycin C 0.1% was injected sub mucosal in stricture area at 1,11,6 and 12 O clock position using straight working channel paediatric cystoscope after conventional optical urethrotomy. Group B (Control) 70 patients in whom only optical urethrotomy was performed. SCIC was not offered in both the groups. All the patients were regularly followed on a monthly basis for 3 months then three monthly for remaining 9 months. Recurrence was diagnosed by using diagnostic tools of retrograde urethrogram and flexible urethroscopy in selected cased. Data was collected on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS. Result: The mean age in Group A was 33 ±1.5 years and Group B was 35 years. External trauma was leading cause of urethral stricture in both groups 46 (65%) Group A and 50 (71.4%) Group B. In Group A. Iatrogenic urethral trauma was 2nd etiological factor in both groups. 18(25%) Group A while 15( 21.4%) in Group B. At the end of 1 year, At the end of one year, recurrence of urethral stricture was recorded in 11 (15.71%) patient in Mitomycin C Group A and it was recorded in 27 (38.5 %) patients in group B. Significant difference p=0.001 was found in favour of group A Mitomycin group. Conclusion: Recurrence of urethral stricture is high after optical urethrotomy. Mitomycin C is found highly effective in preventing recurrence of urethral stricture after IOU.

Keywords: urethral stricture, mitomycine, internal optical urethrotomy, medical and health sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Benukar Biswas, S. Banerjee, P. K. Bandhyopadhyaya, S. K. Patra, S. Sarkar

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Jute can be sown as relay crop in between the lines of 15-20 days old green gram for additional pulse yield without reducing the yield of jute. The main problem of this system is water use efficiency (WUE). The increase in water productivity and reduction in production cost were reported in the zero-tilled crop. The hydrogel can hold water up to 400 times of its weight and can release 95 % of the retained water. The present field study was carried out during 2015-16 at BCKV (tropical sub-humid, 1560 mm annual rainfall, 22058/ N, 88051/ E, 9.75 m AMSL, sandy loam soil, aeric Haplaquept, pH 6.75, organic carbon 5.4 g kg-1, available N 85 kg ha-1, P2O5 15.3 kg ha-1 and K2O 40 kg ha-1) with four levels of irrigation regimes: no irrigation - RF, cumulative pan evaporation 250mm (CPE250), CPE125 and CPE83 and three levels of hydrogel: no hydrogel (H0), 2.5 kg ha-1 (H2.5) and 5 kg ha-1 (H5). Throughout the crop growing period a linear positive relationship remained between Leaf Area Index (LAI) and evapotranspiration rate. The strength of the relationship between ETa and LAI started increasing and reached its peak at 7 WAS (R2=0.78) when green gram was at its maturity, and both the crops covered the nearly entire base area. This relation starts weakening from 13 WAS due to jute leaf shading. A linear relationship between system yield and ET was also obtained in the present study. The variation in system yield might be predicted 75% with ET alone. Effective rainfall was reduced with increasing irrigation frequency due to enhanced water supply in contrast to hydrogel application due to the difference in water storage capacity. Irrigation contributed a major source of variability of ET. Higher irrigation frequency resulted in higher ET loss ranging from 574 mm in RF to 764 mm in CPE83. Hydrogel application also increased water storage on a sustained basis and supplied to crops resulting higher ET from 639 mm in H0 to 671mm in H5. WUE ranged between 0.4 kg m-3 (RF) to 0.63 kg m-3 (CPE83 H5). WUE increased with increased application of irrigation water from 0.42 kg m-3 in RF to 0.57 kg m-3 in CPE 83. Hydrogel application significantly improves the WUE from 0.45 kg m-3 in H0 to 0.50 in H2.5 and 0.54 in H5. Under relatively dry root zone (RF), both evaporation and transpiration remain at suboptimal level resulting in lower ET as well as lower system yield. Green gram – jute relay system can be water use efficient with 38% higher yield with application of hydrogel @ 2.5 kg ha-1 under deficit irrigation regime of CPE 125 over rainfed system without application of the gel. Application of gel conditioner improved water storage, checked excess water loss from the system, and mitigated ET demand of the relay system for a longer time. Hence, irrigation frequency was reduced from five times at CPE 83 to only three times in CPE 125.

Keywords: zero tillage, deficit irrigation, hydrogel, relay system

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: O. A. Akinsanya

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This paper presents the emerging trends in household energy usage in Nigeria for sustainable development. The paper relied on a direct appraisal of energy use in the residential sector and the use of a structured questionnaire to establish the usage pattern, energy management measures and emerging advances. The use of efficient appliances, retrofitting, smart building and smart attitude are some of the benefitting measures. The paper also identified smart building, prosumer activities, hybrid energy use, improved awareness, and solar stand-alone street/security lights as the trend and concluded that energy management strategies would result in a significant reduction in the monthly bills and peak loads as well as the total electricity consumption in Nigeria and therefore it is good for sustainable development.

Keywords: household, energy, trends, strategy, sustainable, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

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This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Francesco La Torre, Angela Di Cesare, Donato Traversa

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The mosquito-transmitted nematode Dirofilaria repens is the causative agent of subcutaneous filariosis in dogs, other animals and humans. Adults and circulating microfilariae may cause different forms of skin conditions, and various allergic reactions. The infection is distributed in several countries and spreading in several areas of Europe. The control of D. repens is pivotal to reduce the transmission in dogs and to minimize the risk of infection in humans, but only few information is available for the chemoprevention of subcutaneous filariosis of dogs. A recent clinical field study showed the efficacy and safety of a monthly administration of an oral formulation containing milbemycin oxime (Milbemax®, Novartis Animal Health) in the chemoprevention of D. repens infection in dogs. Most recent and focused insights into epidemiology and control of zoonotic canine subcutaneous filariosis are here discussed.

Keywords: Dirofilaria repens, epidemiology, zoonosis, control

Procedia PDF Downloads 721

Authors: U. F. Mammadova

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Natural resources is the main self-supplying way which is being studied in the paper. Ecologically clean and independent clean energy stock is wind one. This potential is first studied by applying remote sensing way. In any coordinate of the district, wind energy potential has been determined by measuring the potential by applying radar technique which gives a possibility to reveal 2 D view. At several heights, including 10,50,100,150,200 ms, the measurements have been realized. The achievable power generation for m2 in the district was calculated. Daily, hourly, and monthly wind energy potential data were graphed and schemed in the paper. The energy, environmental, and economic advantages of wind energy for the Agsu district were investigated by analyzing radar spectral measurements after the remote sensing process.

Keywords: wind potential, spectral radar analysis, ecological clean energy, ecological safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

Procedia PDF Downloads 471

Authors: Ramli Nazir, Hossein Moayedi

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Soil confinement systems serve as effective solutions to any erosion control project. Various confinements systems, namely triangular, circular and rectangular with the size of 50, 100, and 150 mm, and with a depth of 10 mm, were embedded in soil samples at slope angle of 60°. The observed soil mass losses for the confined soil systems were much smaller than those from unconfined system. As a result, the size of confinement and rainfall intensity have a direct effect on the soil mass loss. The triangular and rectangular confinement systems showed the lowest and highest soil loss masses, respectively. The slopes also failed much faster in the unconfined system than in the confined slope.

Keywords: erosion control, soil confinement, soil erosion, slope stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 813