Search results for: generalized additive model

Authors: Nthabiseng Portia Mahumapelo, Andre van Niekerk, Ndabenhle Sosibo, Nirdesh Singh

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The foundry industry generates large quantities of solid waste in the form of waste foundry sand. The ever-increasing quantities of this type of industrial waste put pressure on land-filling space and its proper management has become a global concern. The South African foundry industry is not different when it comes to this solid waste generation. Utilizing the foundry waste sand in other applications has become an attractive avenue to deal with this waste stream. In the present paper, an evaluation was done on the suitability of foundry waste sand as an additive in clay masonry products. Purchased clay was added to the foundry waste sand sample in a 50/50 ratio. The mixture was named FC sample. The FC sample was mixed with water in a pan mixer until the mixture was consistent and suitable for extrusion. The FC sample was extruded and cut into briquettes. Water absorption, shrinkage and modulus of rupture tests were conducted on the resultant briquettes. Foundry waste sand and FC samples were respectively characterized mineralogically using X-Ray Diffraction, and the major and trace elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy. Adding purchased clay to the foundry waste sand positively influenced the workability of the test sample. Another positive characteristic was the low linear shrinkage, which indicated that products manufactured from the FC sample would not be susceptible to cracking. The water absorption values were acceptable and the unfired and fired strength values of the briquette’s samples were acceptable. In conclusion, tests showed that foundry waste sand can be used as an additive in masonry clay bricks, provided it is blended with good quality clay.

Keywords: foundry waste sand, masonry clay bricks, modulus of rupture, shrinkage

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Authors: Birhanu Betela Warssamo

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Background: There is limited evidence on the prevalence and risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among waste handlers in the Sidama region, Ethiopia; however, this knowledge is necessary for the effective prevention of HCV infection in the region. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected waste collectors from October 2021 to 30 July 2022 in different public hospitals in the Sidama region of Ethiopia. Serum samples were collected from participants and screened for anti-HCV using a rapid immunochromatography assay. Socio-demographic and risk factor information of waste handlers was gathered by pretested and well-structured questionnaires. The generalized linear model (GLM) was conducted using R software, and P-value < 0.05 was declared statistically significant. Results: From a total of 282 participating waste handlers, 16 (5.7%) (95% CI, 4.2 – 8.7) were infected with the hepatitis C virus. The educational status of waste handlers was the significant demographic variable that was associated with the hepatitis C virus (AOR = 0.055; 95% CI = 0.012 – 0.248; P = 0.000). More married waste handlers, 12 (75%), were HCV positive than unmarried, 4 (25%) and married waste handlers were 2.051 times (OR = 2.051, 95%CI = 0.644 –6.527, P = 0.295) more prone to HCV infection, compared to unmarried, which was statistically insignificant. The GLM showed that exposure to blood (OR = 8.26; 95% CI = 1.878–10.925; P = 0.037), multiple sexual partners (AOR = 3.63; 95% CI = 2.751–5.808; P = 0.001), sharp injury (AOR = 2.77; 95% CI = 2.327–3.173; P = 0.036), not using PPE (AOR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.032–0.937; P = 0.001), contact with jaundiced patient (AOR = 3.65; 95% CI = 1.093–4.368; P = 0 .0048) and unprotected sex (AOR = 11.91; 95% CI = 5.847–16.854; P = 0.001) remained statistically significantly associated with HCV positivity. Conclusions: The study revealed that there was a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection among waste handlers in the Sidama region, Ethiopia. This demonstrated that there is an urgent need to increase preventative efforts and strategic policy orientations to control the spread of the hepatitis C virus.

Keywords: Hepatitis C virus, risk factors, waste handlers, prevalence, Sidama Ethiopia

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Authors: Bryce R. Jolley, Michael Uchic

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This study presents initial results toward the correlative characterization of inherent defects of Ti-6Al-4V additive manufacture (AM). X-Ray Computed Tomography (CT) defect data are compared and correlated with microscopic photographs obtained via automated serial sectioning. The metal AM specimen was manufactured out of Ti-6Al-4V virgin powder to specified dimensions. A post-contour was applied during the fabrication process with a speed of 1050 mm/s, power of 260 W, and a width of 140 µm. The specimen was stress relief heat-treated at 16°F for 3 hours. Microfocus CT imaging was accomplished on the specimen within a predetermined region of the build. Microfocus CT imaging was conducted with parameters optimized for Ti-6Al-4V additive manufacture. After CT imaging, a modified RoboMet. 3D version 2 was employed for serial sectioning and optical microscopy characterization of the same predetermined region. Automated montage capture with sub-micron resolution, bright-field reflection, 12-bit monochrome optical images were performed in an automated fashion. These optical images were post-processed to produce 2D and 3D data sets. This processing included thresholding and segmentation to improve visualization of defect features. The defects observed from optical imaging were compared and correlated with the defects observed from CT imaging over the same predetermined region of the specimen. Quantitative results of area fraction and equivalent pore diameters obtained via each method are presented for this correlation. It is shown that Microfocus CT imaging does not capture all inherent defects within this Ti-6Al-4V AM sample. Best practices for this correlative effort are also presented as well as the future direction of research resultant from this current study.

Keywords: additive manufacture, automated serial sectioning, computed tomography, nondestructive evaluation

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Authors: Ahmed Nouainia, Mohamed Hajji, Taoufik Aguili

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In this paper, an electromagnetic analysis is presented for describing the influence of shielding in a rectangular waveguide. A hybridization based on the method of moments combined to the generalized equivalent circuit MoM-GEC is used to model the problem. This is validated by applying the MoM-GEC hybridization to investigate a diffraction structure. It consists of electromagnetic diffraction by an iris in a rectangular waveguide. Numerical results are shown and discussed and a comparison with FEM and Marcuvitz methods is achieved.

Keywords: method MoM-GEC, waveguide, shielding, equivalent circuit

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Authors: Jun Li, Wenze Wang, Zhanggui Hu, Yongwei Zhu, Dunwen Zuo

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Non-water based fixed abrasive polishing was adopted to manufacture LBO crystal for nano precision surface quality because of its deliquescent. Ethyl alcohol was selected as the non-water based slurry solvent and ethanediamine, lactic acid, hydrogen peroxide were add in the slurry as a chemical additive, respectively. Effect of different additives with non-water based slurry on material removal rate, surface topography, microscopic appearances and surface roughness were investigated in fixed abrasive polishing of LBO crystal. The results show the best surface quality of LBO crystal with surface roughness Sa 8.2 nm and small damages was obtained by non-water based slurry with lactic acid. Non-water based fixed abrasive polishing can achieve nano precision surface quality of LBO crystal with high material removal.

Keywords: non-water based slurry, LBO crystal, fixed abrasive polishing, surface roughness

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Authors: Mansour H. Alkmim, Adriano T. Fabro, Marcus V. G. De Morais

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In this paper, a global direct search optimization algorithm to reduce vibration of a tuned liquid column damper (TLCD), a class of passive structural control device, is presented. The objective is to find optimized parameters for the TLCD under stochastic load from different wind power spectral density. A verification is made considering the analytical solution of an undamped primary system under white noise excitation. Finally, a numerical example considering a simplified wind turbine model is given to illustrate the efficacy of the TLCD. Results from the random vibration analysis are shown for four types of random excitation wind model where the response PSDs obtained showed good vibration attenuation.

Keywords: generalized pattern search, parameter optimization, random vibration analysis, vibration suppression

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

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Authors: Hany Elsaid Fawaz Abdallah

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This study presents a new artificial neural network(ANN) model to predict the Nusselt Number and pressure drop for the turbulent flow in a triangular corrugated plate heat exchanger for forced air and turbulent water flow. An experimental investigation was performed to create a new dataset for the Nusselt Number and pressure drop values in the following range of dimensionless parameters: The plate corrugation angles (from 0° to 60°), the Reynolds number (from 10000 to 40000), pitch to height ratio (from 1 to 4), and Prandtl number (from 0.7 to 200). Based on the ANN performance graph, the three-layer structure with {12-8-6} hidden neurons has been chosen. The training procedure includes back-propagation with the biases and weight adjustment, the evaluation of the loss function for the training and validation dataset and feed-forward propagation of the input parameters. The linear function was used at the output layer as the activation function, while for the hidden layers, the rectified linear unit activation function was utilized. In order to accelerate the ANN training, the loss function minimization may be achieved by the adaptive moment estimation algorithm (ADAM). The ‘‘MinMax’’ normalization approach was utilized to avoid the increase in the training time due to drastic differences in the loss function gradients with respect to the values of weights. Since the test dataset is not being used for the ANN training, a cross-validation technique is applied to the ANN network using the new data. Such procedure was repeated until loss function convergence was achieved or for 4000 epochs with a batch size of 200 points. The program code was written in Python 3.0 using open-source ANN libraries such as Scikit learn, TensorFlow and Keras libraries. The mean average percent error values of 9.4% for the Nusselt number and 8.2% for pressure drop for the ANN model have been achieved. Therefore, higher accuracy compared to the generalized correlations was achieved. The performance validation of the obtained model was based on a comparison of predicted data with the experimental results yielding excellent accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, corrugated channel, heat transfer enhancement, Nusselt number, pressure drop, generalized correlations

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Authors: Song Zhang, Hui Wang, Johannes Henrich Schleifenbaum

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Due to the increasing demand for quality assurance and reliability for additive manufacturing, the development of an advanced in-situ monitoring system is required to monitor the process anomalies as input for further process control. Optical-based monitoring systems, such as CMOS cameras and NIR cameras, are proved as effective ways to monitor the geometrical distortion and exceptional thermal distribution. Therefore, many studies and applications are focusing on the availability of the optical-based monitoring system for detecting varied types of defects. However, the capability of the monitoring setup is not quantified. In this study, a quantification model to evaluate the capability of the monitoring setups for the LPBF machine based on acquired monitoring data of a designed test artifact is presented, while the design of the relevant test artifacts is discussed. The monitoring setup is evaluated based on its hardware properties, location of the integration, and light condition. Methodology of data processing to quantify the capacity for each aspect is discussed. The minimal capability of the detectable size of the monitoring set up in the application is estimated by quantifying its resolution and accuracy. The quantification model is validated using a CCD camera-based monitoring system for LPBF machines in the laboratory with different setups. The result shows the model to quantify the monitoring system's performance, which makes the evaluation of monitoring systems with the same concept but different setups possible for the LPBF process and provides the direction to improve the setups.

Keywords: data processing, in-situ monitoring, LPBF process, optical system, quantization model, test artifact

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Authors: Niki Hayatgheib, SéGolèNe Calvez, Catherine Fournel, Lionel Pineau, Herve Pouliquen, Emmanuelle Moreau

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Furunculosis caused by infection with Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida has been a known disease found principally in salmonid aquaculture. Vaccination has been partly successful in preventing this disease, but outbreaks still occur. The application of functional feed additive found to be a promising yield to improve fish health against diseases. In this study, we tested the efficacy of prebiotics and plant essential oils-enriched diet on immune response and disease resistance in vaccinated and non-vaccinated rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) against furunculosis. A total of 600 fish were fed with the basal diet or supplement. On 4th week of feeding, fish were vaccinated with an autovaccine. Following 8 weeks, fish were challenged with Aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida and mortalities were recorded for 3 weeks. Lysozyme activity and antibody titer in serum were measured in different groups. The results of this study showed that lysozyme and circulatory antibody titer in plasma elevated significantly in vaccinated fish fed with additive. The best growth rate and relative percentage survival (62%) were in fish fed with a supplement, while 15% in control fish. Overall, prebiotics and essential oils association can be considered as a potential component for enhancing vaccine efficacy against furunculosis by increasing the growth performance, immune responses and disease resistance in rainbow trout.

Keywords: aeromonas salmonicida subsp. salmonicida, aquaculture, disease resistance, fish, immune response, prebiotics-essential oils feed additive, rainbow trout, vaccination

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Authors: Muhammad Nouman Qureshi, Muhammad Hanif

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Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is specifically developed for the estimation of highly clumped populations and applied to a wide range of situations like animals of rare and endangered species, uneven minerals, HIV patients and drug users. In this paper, we proposed a generalized semi-exponential estimator with two auxiliary variables under the framework of ACS design. The expressions of approximate bias and mean square error (MSE) of the proposed estimator are derived. Theoretical comparisons of the proposed estimator have been made with existing estimators. A numerical study is conducted on real and artificial populations to demonstrate and compare the efficiencies of the proposed estimator. The results indicate that the proposed generalized semi-exponential estimator performed considerably better than all the adaptive and non-adaptive estimators considered in this paper.

Keywords: auxiliary information, adaptive cluster sampling, clustered populations, Hansen-Hurwitz estimation

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Lingju Wu, Hao Hua

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This paper presents a digital fashion production methodology and workflow based on fused deposition modeling additive manufacturing technology, as demonstrated through a 3D printed fashion show held at Southeast University in Nanjing, China. Unlike traditional fashion, 3D printed fashion allows for the creation of complex geometric shapes and unique structural designs, facilitating diverse reconfiguration and sustainable production of textile fabrics. The proposed methodology includes two components: morphogenesis and the 3D printing process. The morphogenesis part comprises digital design methods such as mesh deformation, structural reorganization, particle flow stretching, sheet partitioning, and spreading methods. The 3D printing process section includes three types of methods: sculptural objects, multi-material composite fabric, and self-forming composite fabrics. This paper focuses on multi-material composite fabrics and self-forming composite fabrics, both of which involve weaving fabrics with 3D-printed material sandwiches. Multi-material composite fabrics create specially tailored fabric from the original properties of the printing path and multiple materials, while self-forming fabrics apply pre-stress to the flat fabric and then print the sandwich, allowing the fabric's own elasticity to interact with the printed components and shape into a 3D state. The digital design method and workflow enable the integration of abstract sensual aesthetics and rational thinking, showcasing a digital aesthetic that challenges conventional handicraft workshops. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive framework for the production of 3D-printed fashion, from concept to final product.

Keywords: digital fashion, composite fabric, self-forming structure, additive manufacturing, generating design

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Authors: Fawzi Srairi, Abderrahmane Dib

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Recently, the desire for a self-powered micro and nanodevices has attracted a great interest of using sustainable energy sources. Further, the ultimate goal of nanogenerator is to harvest energy from the ambient environment in which a self-powered device based on these generators is needed. With the development of nanogenerator-based circuits design and optimization, the building of new device simulator is necessary for the study and the synthesis of electromechanical parameters of this type of models. In the present article, both numerical modeling and optimization of piezoelectric nanogenerator based on zinc oxide have been carried out. They aim to improve the electromechanical performances, robustness, and synthesis process for nanogenerator. The proposed model has been developed for a systematic study of the nanowire morphology parameters in stretching mode. In addition, heuristic optimization technique, namely, particle swarm optimization has been implemented for an analytic modeling and an optimization of nanogenerator-based process in stretching mode. Moreover, the obtained results have been tested and compared with conventional model where a good agreement has been obtained for excitation mode. The developed nanogenerator model can be generalized, extended and integrated into simulators devices to study nanogenerator-based circuits.

Keywords: electrical potential, heuristic algorithms, numerical modeling, nanogenerator

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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Authors: Aziz Sezgin

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We consider the problem of stabilization of an unstable heat equation in a 2-D, 3-D and generally n-D domain by deriving a generalized backstepping boundary control design methodology. To stabilize the systems, we design boundary backstepping controllers inspired by the 1-D unstable heat equation stabilization procedure. We assume that one side of the boundary is hinged and the other side is controlled for each direction of the domain. Thus, controllers act on two boundaries for 2-D domain, three boundaries for 3-D domain and ”n” boundaries for n-D domain. The main idea of the design is to derive ”n” controllers for each of the dimensions by using ”n” kernel functions. Thus, we obtain ”n” controllers for the ”n” dimensional case. We use a transformation to change the system into an exponentially stable ”n” dimensional heat equation. The transformation used in this paper is a generalized Volterra/Fredholm type with ”n” kernel functions for n-D domain instead of the one kernel function of 1-D design.

Keywords: backstepping, boundary control, 2-D, 3-D, n-D heat equation, distributed parameter systems

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Authors: Michael Anton Kraus, Miriam Schuster, Geralt Siebert, Jens Schneider

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Polymers increasingly gained interest in construction materials over the last years in civil engineering applications. As polymeric materials typically show time- and temperature dependent material behavior, which is accounted for in the context of the theory of linear viscoelasticity. Within the context of this paper, the authors show, that some polymeric interlayers for laminated glass can not be considered as thermorheologically simple as they do not follow a simple TTSP, thus a methodology of identifying the thermorheologically complex constitutive bahavioir is needed. ‘Dynamical-Mechanical-Thermal-Analysis’ (DMTA) in tensile and shear mode as well as ‘Differential Scanning Caliometry’ (DSC) tests are carried out on the interlayer material ‘Ethylene-vinyl acetate’ (EVA). A navoel Bayesian framework for the Master Curving Process as well as the detection and parameter identification of the TTSPs along with their associated Prony-series is derived and applied to the EVA material data. To our best knowledge, this is the first time, an uncertainty quantification of the Prony-series in a Bayesian context is shown. Within this paper, we could successfully apply the derived Bayesian methodology to the EVA material data to gather meaningful Master Curves and TTSPs. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified. We found, that EVA needs two TTSPs with two associated Generalized Maxwell Models. As the methodology is kept general, the derived framework could be also applied to other thermorheologically complex polymers for parameter identification purposes.

Keywords: bayesian parameter identification, generalized Maxwell model, linear viscoelasticity, thermorheological complex

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Authors: Milica Ž. Karadžić, Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Anamarija I. Mandić, Katarina Penov-Gaši, Andrea R. Nikolić, Aleksandar M. Oklješa

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This study considered selection of the in silico molecular descriptors and the models for newly synthesized steroid derivatives description and their characterization using chemometric techniques. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were established and gave the best molecular descriptors for quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) modeling of the retention of the investigated molecules. MLR models were without multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors according to the variance inflation factor (VIF) values. Used molecular descriptors were ranked using generalized pair correlation method (GPCM). In this method, the significant difference between independent variables can be noticed regardless almost equal correlation between dependent variable. Generated MLR models were statistically and cross-validated and the best models were kept. Models were ranked using sum of ranking differences (SRD) method. According to this method, the most consistent QSRR model can be found and similarity or dissimilarity between the models could be noticed. In this study, SRD was performed using average values of experimentally observed data as a golden standard. Chemometric analysis was conducted in order to characterize newly synthesized steroid derivatives for further investigation regarding their potential biological activity and further synthesis. This article is based upon work from COST Action (CM1105), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: generalized pair correlation method, molecular descriptors, regression analysis, steroids, sum of ranking differences

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Authors: I. Toumi, Y. Abed, A. Bouafia

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This paper presents a methodology for identifying the cohesive soil parameters that takes into account different constitutive equations. The procedure, applied to identify the parameters of generalized Prager model associated to the Drucker & Prager failure criterion from a pressuremeter expansion curve, is based on an inverse analysis approach, which consists of minimizing the function representing the difference between the experimental curve and the simulated curve using a simplex algorithm. The model response on pressuremeter path and its identification from experimental data lead to the determination of the friction angle, the cohesion and the Young modulus. Some parameters effects on the simulated curves and stresses path around pressuremeter probe are presented. Comparisons between the parameters determined with the proposed method and those obtained by other means are also presented.

Keywords: cohesive soils, cavity expansion, pressuremeter test, finite element method, optimization procedure, simplex algorithm

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Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

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This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

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Authors: Olga I. Moskalenko, Vladislav A. Khanadeev, Anastasya D. Koloskova, Alexey A. Koronovskii, Anatoly A. Pivovarov

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Generalized synchronization is one of the most intricate phenomena in nonlinear science. It can be observed both in systems with a unidirectional and mutual type of coupling including the complex networks. Such a phenomenon has a number of practical applications, for example, for the secure information transmission through the communication channel with a high level of noise. Known methods for the secure information transmission needs in the increase of the privacy of data transmission that arises a question about the observation of such phenomenon in systems with a complex topology of chaotic attractor possessing two or more positive Lyapunov exponents. The present report is devoted to the study of such phenomenon in two unidirectionally and mutually coupled dynamical systems being in chaotic (with one positive Lyapunov exponent) and hyperchaotic (with two or more positive Lyapunov exponents) regimes, respectively. As the systems under study, we have used two mutually coupled modified Lorenz oscillators and two unidirectionally coupled time-delayed generators. We have shown that in both cases the generalized synchronization regime can be detected by means of the calculation of Lyapunov exponents and phase tube approach whereas due to the complex topology of attractor the nearest neighbor method is misleading. Moreover, the auxiliary system approaches being the standard method for the synchronous regime observation, for the mutual type of coupling results in incorrect results. To calculate the Lyapunov exponents in time-delayed systems we have proposed an approach based on the modification of Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization procedure in the context of the time-delayed system. We have studied in detail the mechanisms resulting in the generalized synchronization regime onset paying a great attention to the field where one positive Lyapunov exponent has already been become negative whereas the second one is a positive yet. We have found the intermittency here and studied its characteristics. To detect the laminar phase lengths the method based on a calculation of local Lyapunov exponents has been proposed. The efficiency of the method has been verified using the example of two unidirectionally coupled Rössler systems being in the band chaos regime. We have revealed the main characteristics of intermittency, i.e. the distribution of the laminar phase lengths and dependence of the mean length of the laminar phases on the criticality parameter, for all systems studied in the report. This work has been supported by the Russian President's Council grant for the state support of young Russian scientists (project MK-531.2018.2).

Keywords: complex topology of attractor, generalized synchronization, hyperchaos, Lyapunov exponents

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Authors: Mihai Rebenciuc, Simona Mihaela Bibic

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Branch of modern mathematics, graphs represent instruments for optimization and solving practical applications in various fields such as economic networks, engineering, network optimization, the geometry of social action, generally, complex systems including contemporary urban problems (path or transport efficiencies, biourbanism, & c.). In this paper is studied the interconnection of some urban network, which can lead to a simulation problem of a digraph through another digraph. The simulation is made univoc or more general multivoc. The concepts of fragment and atom are very useful in the study of connectivity in the digraph that is simulation - including an alternative evaluation of k- connectivity. Rough set approach in (bi)digraph which is proposed in premier in this paper contribute to improved significantly the evaluation of k-connectivity. This rough set approach is based on generalized rough sets - basic facts are presented in this paper.

Keywords: (bi)digraphs, rough set theory, systems of interacting agents, complex systems

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Authors: V. Karamzadeh, J. Adhvaryu, A. Chandrasekaran, M. Packirisamy

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In Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) microfluidics, the throughput of particle sorting is dependent on the complex interplay between the geometric configuration of the channel, the size of the particles, and the properties of the fluid medium, which therefore calls for a detailed modeling and understanding of the fluid-particle interaction dynamics under an acoustic field, prior to designing the system. In this work, we propose a simplified Bulk acoustophoretic system that can be used for size dependent particle sorting. A Finite Element Method (FEM) based analytical model has been developed to study the dependence of particle sizes on channel parameters, and the sorting efficiency in a given fluid medium. Based on the results, the microfluidic system has been designed to take into account all the variables involved with the underlying physics, and has been fabricated using an additive manufacturing technique employing a commercial 3D printer, to generate a simple, cost-effective system that can be used for size sensitive particle sorting.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D microfluidic chip, acoustophoresis, cell separation, MEMS (Microelectromechanical Systems), microfluidics

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Authors: Gholamreza Ghodrati Amiri, Mojtaba Jafarian Abyaneh, Ali Zare Hosseinzadeh

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This paper presents an effective model updating strategy for damage localization and quantification in frames by defining damage detection problem as an optimization issue. A generalized version of the Modal Residual Force (MRF) is employed for presenting a new damage-sensitive cost function. Then, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm is utilized for solving suggested inverse problem and the global extremums are reported as damage detection results. The applicability of the presented method is investigated by studying different damage patterns on the benchmark problem of the IASC-ASCE, as well as a planar shear frame structure. The obtained results emphasize good performance of the method not only in free-noise cases, but also when the input data are contaminated with different levels of noises.

Keywords: frame, grey wolf optimization algorithm, modal residual force, structural damage detection

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Authors: R. Pilafkan, M. Kaffash Irzarahimi, S. F. Asbaghian Namin

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The biaxial buckling behavior of single-layered graphene sheets (SLGSs) is studied in the present work. To consider the size-effects in the analysis, Eringen’s nonlocal elasticity equations are incorporated into classical plate theory (CLPT). A Generalized Differential Quadrature Method (GDQM) approach is utilized and numerical solutions for the critical buckling loads are obtained. Then, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed for a series of zigzag SLGSs with different side-lengths and with various boundary conditions, the results of which are matched with those obtained by the nonlocal plate model to numerical the appropriate values of nonlocal parameter relevant to each type of boundary conditions.

Keywords: biaxial buckling, single-layered graphene sheets, nonlocal elasticity, molecular dynamics simulation, classical plate theory

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Peng Hao Wang, Garam Kim, Ronald Sterkenburg

Abstract:

The applications of composite materials within the aviation industry has been increasing at a rapid pace.  However, the growing applications of composite materials have also led to growing demand for more tooling to support its manufacturing processes. Tooling and tooling maintenance represents a large portion of the composite manufacturing process and cost. Therefore, the industry’s adaptability to new techniques for fabricating high quality tools quickly and inexpensively will play a crucial role in composite material’s growing popularity in the aviation industry. One popular tool fabrication technique currently being developed involves additive manufacturing such as 3D printing. Although additive manufacturing and 3D printing are not entirely new concepts, the technique has been gaining popularity due to its ability to quickly fabricate components, maintain low material waste, and low cost. In this study, a team of Purdue University School of Aviation and Transportation Technology (SATT) faculty and students investigated the effectiveness of a 3D printed composite compression mold. A 3D printed composite compression mold was fabricated by 3D scanning a steel valve cover of an aircraft reciprocating engine. The 3D printed composite compression mold was used to fabricate carbon fiber versions of the aircraft reciprocating engine valve cover. The 3D printed composite compression mold was evaluated for its performance, durability, and dimensional stability while the fabricated carbon fiber valve covers were evaluated for its accuracy and quality. The results and data gathered from this study will determine the effectiveness of the 3D printed composite compression mold in a mass production environment and provide valuable information for future understanding, improvements, and design considerations of 3D printed composite molds.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, carbon fiber, composite tooling, molds

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Authors: Sergio Haram Sarmiento, Arcady Ponosov

Abstract:

Based on appropriate multivariate statistical methodology, we suggest a generic framework for efficient parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations and the corresponding nonlinear models. In this framework classical linear regression strategies is refined into a nonlinear regression by a locally linear modelling technique (known as metamodelling). The approach identifies those latent variables of the given model that accumulate most information about it among all approximations of the same dimension. The method is applied to several benchmark problems, in particular, to the so-called ”power-law systems”, being non-linear differential equations typically used in Biochemical System Theory.

Keywords: principal component analysis, generalized law of mass action, parameter estimation, metamodels

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Authors: Hiba Naccache, Rima Hleiss

Abstract:

Additive manufacturing AM or 3D printing is one of the pillars of Industry 4.0. Compared to traditional manufacturing, AM provides a prototype before production in order to optimize the design and avoid the stock market and uses strictly necessary material which can be recyclable, for the benefit of leaning towards local production, saving money, time and resources. Different types of AM exist and it has a broad range of applications across several industries like aerospace, automotive, medicine, education and else. The Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) is a metal AM technique that uses a laser to liquefy metal powder, layer by layer, to build a three-dimensional (3D) object. In industry 4.0 and aligned with the numbers 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) and 12 (Responsible Production and Consumption) of the Sustainable Development Goals of the UNESCO 2030 Agenda, the AM’s manufacturers committed to minimizing the environmental impact by being sustainable in every production. The LPBF has several environmental advantages, like reduced waste production, lower energy consumption, and greater flexibility in creating components with lightweight and complex geometries. However, LPBF also have environmental drawbacks, like energy consumption, gas consumption and emissions. It is critical to recognize the environmental impacts of LPBF in order to mitigate them. To increase awareness and promote sustainable practices regarding LPBF, the researchers use the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) theory where people from multiple universities in France and Qatar process information in two ways: peripherally and centrally. The peripheral campaigns use superficial cues to get attention, and the central campaigns provide clear and concise information. The authors created a seminar including a video showing LPBF production and a website with educational resources. The data is collected using questionnaire to test attitude about the public awareness before and after the seminar. The results reflected a great shift on the awareness toward LPBF and its impact on the environment. With no presence of similar research, to our best knowledge, this study will add to the literature on the sustainability of the LPBF production technique.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, laser powder bed fusion, elaboration likelihood model theory, sustainable development goals, education-awareness, France, Qatar, specific energy consumption, environmental impact, lightweight components

Procedia PDF Downloads 88