Search results for: risk and reliability analysis

Authors: Jinyong Yao, Hongzhi Li, Chao Du, Jiao Li

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Reliability of long-term storage products is related to the availability of the whole system, and the evaluation of storage life is of great necessity. These products are usually highly reliable and little failure information can be collected. In this paper, an analytical method based on data from accelerated storage life test is proposed to evaluate the reliability index of the long-term storage products. Firstly, singularities are eliminated by data normalization and residual analysis. Secondly, with the pre-processed data, the degradation path model is built to obtain the pseudo life values. Then by life distribution hypothesis, we can get the estimator of parameters in high stress levels and verify failure mechanisms consistency. Finally, the life distribution under the normal stress level is extrapolated via the acceleration model and evaluation of the true average life available. An application example with the camera stabilization device is provided to illustrate the methodology we proposed.

Keywords: accelerated storage life test, failure mechanisms consistency, life distribution, reliability

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Authors: Yasin Ghasemi-Zadeh, Yousef Kavian

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Wireless body area networks (WBANs) technology has achieved lots of popularity over the last decade with a wide range of medical applications. This paper presents an asynchronous media access control (MAC) protocol based on B-MAC protocol by giving an application for medical issues. In WBAN applications, there are some serious problems such as energy, latency, link reliability (quality of wireless link) and throughput which are mainly due to size of sensor networks and human body specifications. To overcome these problems and improving link reliability, we concentrated on MAC layer that supports mobility models for medical applications. In the presented protocol, preamble frames are divided into some sub-frames considering the threshold level. Actually, the main reason for creating shorter preambles is the link reliability where due to some reasons such as water, the body signals are affected on some frequency bands and causes fading and shadowing on signals, therefore by increasing the link reliability, these effects are reduced. In case of mobility model, we use MoBAN model and modify that for some more areas. The presented asynchronous MAC protocol is modeled by OMNeT++ simulator. The results demonstrate increasing the link reliability comparing to B-MAC protocol where the packet reception ratio (PRR) is 92% also covers more mobility areas than MoBAN protocol.

Keywords: wireless body area networks (WBANs), MAC protocol, link reliability, mobility, biomedical

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Soofia Malik

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The purpose of this study is to develop an instrument to measure undergraduate students’ attitudes toward mathematics (MAT) and to assess the data collected from the instrument for validity and reliability. The instrument is developed using five subscales: anxiety, enjoyment, self-confidence, value, and technology. The technology dimension is added as the fifth subscale of attitude toward mathematics because of the recent trend of incorporating online homework in mathematics courses as well as due to heavy reliance of higher education on using online learning management systems, such as Blackboard and Moodle. The sample consists of 163 (M = 82, F = 81) undergraduates enrolled in College Algebra course in the summer 2017 semester at a university in the USA. The data is analyzed to answer the research question: if and how do undergraduate students’ attitudes toward mathematics load using Principal Components Analysis (PCA)? As a result of PCA, three subscales emerged namely: anxiety/self-confidence scale, enjoyment, and value scale. After deleting the last five items or the last two subscales from the initial MAT scale, the Cronbach’s alpha was recalculated using the scores from 20 items and was found to be α = .95. It is important to note that the reliability of the initial MAT form was α = .93. This means that employing the final MAT survey form would yield consistent results in repeated uses. The final MAT form is, therefore, more reliable as compared to the initial MAT form.

Keywords: college algebra, Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient, Principal Components Analysis, PCA, technology in mathematics

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Authors: Christopher G. Harris, Guy D. Eslick

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Purpose: Lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is a known risk factor for breast cancer of unclear significance when detected in association with invasive carcinoma. This meta-analysis aims to determine the impact of LCIS on local recurrence risk for individuals with breast cancer treated with breast conservation therapy to help guide appropriate treatment strategies. Methods: We identified relevant studies from five electronic databases. Studies were deemed suitable for inclusion where they compared patients with invasive breast cancer and concurrent LCIS to those with breast cancer alone, all patients underwent breast conservation therapy (lumpectomy with adjuvant radiation therapy), and local recurrence was evaluated. Recurrence data were pooled by use of a random effects model. Results: From 1488 citations screened by our search, 8 studies were deemed suitable for inclusion. These studies comprised of 908 cases and 10638 controls. Median follow-up time was 90 months. There was a significantly increased overall risk of local breast cancer recurrence for individuals with LCIS in association with breast cancer following breast conservation therapy [pOR 1.87; 95% CI 1.14-3.04; p = 0.012]. The risk of local recurrence was non-significantly increased at 5 [pOR 1.09; 95% CI 0.48-2.48; p = 0.828] and 10 years [pOR 1.90; 95% CI 0.89-4.06; p = 0.096]. Conclusions: Individuals with LCIS in association with invasive breast cancer have an increased risk of local recurrence following breast conservation therapy. This supports consideration of aggressive local control of LCIS by way of completion mastectomy or re-excision for certain high-risk patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, breast conservation therapy, lobular carcinoma in situ, lobular neoplasia, local recurrence, meta-analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

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the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: J. Balaraju, M. Govinda Raj, C. S. N. Murthy

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Every industry is constantly looking for enhancement of its day to day production and productivity. This can be possible only by maintaining the men and machinery at its adequate level. Prediction of performance characteristics plays an important role in performance evaluation of the equipment. Analytical and statistical approaches will take a bit more time to solve complex problems such as performance estimations as compared with software-based approaches. Keeping this in view the present study deals with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling of a Load-Haul-Dump (LHD) machine to predict the performance characteristics such as reliability, availability and preventive maintenance (PM). A feed-forward-back-propagation ANN technique has been used to model the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. The performance characteristics were computed using Isograph Reliability Workbench 13.0 software. These computed values were validated using predicted output responses of ANN models. Further, recommendations are given to the industry based on the performed analysis for improvement of equipment performance.

Keywords: load-haul-dump, LHD, artificial neural network, ANN, performance, reliability, availability, preventive maintenance

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Genesis F. Dela Cruz, Liza C. Costa

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The study is concerned with the Risk factors of dropping out among Grade VII students for SY 2012-2013. A total of 87 Grade VII Students-At-Risk-of-Dropping Out (SARDOs) were involved in this study. The descriptive survey method was used in this study. A 50-item questionnaire was used in data gathering. Expert validation was done to determine the validity and reliability of the instrument. The study used Chi Square, Kruskal Wallis Test and Mann Whitney Test in the statistical treatment of data. The study revealed that the respondents are within the standard age limit for Grade VII students in the Philippines which is 13 years old. Males more than females usually becomes SARDOs. SARDOs come from low economic status and complete families contrary to the common belief that they came from single-parent families. The study also showed that parent’s involvement in educating their children on family-related factors contributed to the very good perception on the family related factors. Based on age, there are no significant differences in their perception of the four major recognized risk factors for dropping out among all ages. There are no significant differences in their perception of the family, individual and community related factors for dropping out based on sex. However, females have a more favorable perception when it comes to school related factors. No significant differences in their perception of dropping out were also noted when they are classified according to distance of school from home. The respondents do not differ in their perception on family, individual and community related factors when they are classified according to type of family. When surveyed regarding the respondents’ reason for being absent, it was found out that laziness and being late are the two major reasons. Respondents also perceived remedial and tutorial classes as school-initiated intervention measure to prevent school disengagement or dropping out.

Keywords: drop-out, guidance and counseling, school initiated intervention, students at risk of dropping out

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

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Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

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Authors: Andrey Matyukhin

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Russian official statistics have been showing a steady decline in residential real estate prices for several consecutive years. Price risk in real estate markets is thus affecting various groups of economic agents, namely, individuals, construction companies and financial institutions. Potential use of property derivatives might help mitigate adverse consequences of negative price dynamics. Unless a sustainable price indicator is developed, settlement of such instruments imposes constraints on counterparties involved while imposing restrictions on real estate market development. The study addresses geographical and classification heterogeneity in real estate prices by means of variance analysis in various groups of real estate properties. In conclusion, we determine optimal sample structure of representative real estate assets with sufficient level of price homogeneity. The composite price indicator based on the sample would have a higher level of robustness and reliability and hence improving liquidity in the market for property derivatives through underlying standardization. Unlike the majority of existing real estate price indices, calculated on country-wide basis, the optimal indices for Russian market shall be constructed on the city-level.

Keywords: price homogeneity, property derivatives, real estate price index, real estate price risk

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Authors: Yu-Chien Huang, Shu-Chen Yang

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Introduction: Parenting style, non-attachment, and inferiority are important topics in psychology, but the related research on nonattachment is still lacking. Therefore, the purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between parenting style, nonattachment, and inferiority. Methods: We conducted a correlational study, and three instruments were utilized to collect data: parenting style scale, nonattachment scale, and inferiority scale. The inter-reliability Cronbach's α used in this research indicated good inter item reliability and the test-retest reliability that showed a good consistency. The data were analyzed using the descriptive statistics, Chi-square test, one way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and regression analysis. Results: A total of 200 participators were tested in this research. As a result of the study, inferiority had a positive correlation with authoritarian parenting style; nonattachment had a negative correlation with authoritarian parenting style; and with inferiority, the hypothesis was supported. In the linear mediation models, nonattachment was found to be partially mediated the relationship between authoritarian parenting style and inferiority. Conclusion: These findings imply that interventions aimed at enhancing nonattachment as a way to improve inferiority are a good strategy.

Keywords: inferiority, nonattachment, parenting style, psychology

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Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

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It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

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Authors: Ramesh Nagarajappa, Upasana Mohapatra

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Considered a modern phobia, Nomophobia (NO MObile PHOne PhoBIA) is a term that describes the irrational fear or anxiety of being unable to access one’s own mobile phone. Objectives: To develop and validate the nomophobia questionnaire, administering it to a sample of adolescents representing undergraduate dental students. To assess the prevalence of Nomophobia, determine the usage pattern of mobile phones, and evaluate the impact due to lack of access to mobile phones among undergraduate dental students. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 302 undergraduate students at Bhubaneswar through a self-administered questionnaire via Google Forms consisting of 19 items evaluating the pattern and anxiety related to usage of mobile phones. Responses were recorded on a 5-point Likert scale. Kruskal Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, and Chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: Test-Retest reliability showed kappa of k=0.86 and Internal consistency Chronbach’s-Alpha to be α=0.82. Prevalence of nomophobia (score ≥ 58) was 32.1%, and students at risk of being nomophobic (score 39-57) was 61.9%. It was highest in males (32.6%) and amongst the interns (41.9%) and lowest (25.5%) amongst the second-year students. Participants felt nervous/insecure if their phones were away from them because of the fear that somebody might have accessed their data (3.07±1.93) and or tried to contact them (3.09±1.13), which were not statistically significant (p>0.05). Conclusions: Effect of mobile phone on dental students and the fear of not having their phones with them is increasing elaborately, that needs to be controlled, which if not achieved, would negatively hamper their academic performance and their being in the society.

Keywords: addiction, dental students, mobile phone, nomophobia

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Authors: B. Zerouali, M. Kara, B. Hamaidi, H. Mahdjoub, S. Rouabhia

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In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios.

Keywords: bayesian networks, crude oil tank, fault tree, prediction, safety

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Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system

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Authors: Ali Abdullah Albezaghi

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This article aims to introduce a conceptual framework that can facilitate investigations concerning the role of risk management practices in the relationship between construction risks and the construction project's performance. This article is structured based on the extant literature; it reviews theoretical perspectives, highlights the gaps, and illustrates the significance of developing a framework of suggested relationships. Despite growing interest in the role of risks in construction project performance, previous studies have paid little attention to investigating the moderating role of risk management practices on the risk-performance link. This has left researchers and construction project managers with minimal information to explain the conditions under which risk management practices can reduce the impact of project-related risks and improve performance. In this context, this article suggests a viable research model with propositions that assess risk-performance relationships and discusses the potential moderating effects on the domain relationship. This paper adds to the risk management literature by focusing on risk variables that directly impact performance. Further, it also considers the moderating role of risk management practices in such relationships.

Keywords: risk management practices, external risks, internal risks, project risks, project performance

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Authors: Miky Lee, K. Kim, D. Lim, D. Cho

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This paper presents the planning, rationale for test specification derivation, sampling requirements, test facilities, and result analysis used to conduct lifetime expectancy endurance tests on power window switches (PWS) considering thermally induced mechanical stress under diurnal cyclic temperatures during normal operation (power cycling). The detail process of analysis and test results on the selected PWS set were discussed in this paper. A statistical approach to ‘life time expectancy’ was given to the measurement standards dealing with PWS lifetime determination through endurance tests. The approach choice, within the framework of the task, was explained. The present task was dedicated to voltage drop measurement to derive lifetime expectancy while others mostly consider contact or surface resistance. The measurements to perform and the main instruments to measure were fully described accordingly. The failure data from tests were analyzed to conclude lifetime expectancy through statistical method using Weibull cumulative distribution function. The first goal of this task is to develop realistic worst case lifetime endurance test specification because existing large number of switch test standards cannot induce degradation mechanism which makes the switches less reliable. 2nd goal is to assess quantitative reliability status of PWS currently manufactured based on test specification newly developed thru this project. The last and most important goal is to satisfy customer’ requirement regarding product reliability.

Keywords: power window switch, endurance test, Weibull function, reliability, degradation mechanism

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Authors: Maha Mourad

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Higher education in any competitive European economy should serve the new information society by increasing the supply of good quality education services and by creating good international brands in the international higher education market. Hence, continuous risk management techniques through higher educational reforms programs became one of the top priorities within the European Union to control the quality of higher education. Risk is higher education is studies by several researchers who agreed that the risk in higher education has a direct influence on continuity of quality education and research contribution. The focus of this research is to highlights the Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) activities in the Polish higher education system as a risk management tool used to control the quality of education. This paper presents a qualitative empirical analysis in 5 different universities in Poland. In addition, it aims to help in finding global practical and create benchmark for policy makers concerning the risk management techniques based on the Polish experience.

Keywords: education development, quality assurance, sustainability, european higher education

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Authors: H. Falsafi Falsafizadeh, R. Zeinali Zeinali

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This paper focuses on determination of total Operating Reserve (OR) level, consisting of spinning and non-spinning reserves, in two small real power systems, in such a way that the system reliability indicator would comply with typical industry standards. For this purpose, the standard used by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) – i.e., 1 day outage in 10 years or 0.1 days/year is relied. The simulation of system operation for these systems that was used for the determination of total operating reserve level was performed by industry standard production simulation software in this field, named PLEXOS. In this paper, the operating reserve which meets an annual Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of approximately 0.1 days per year is determined in the study year. This reserve is the minimum amount of reserve required in a power system and generally defined as a percentage of the annual peak.

Keywords: frequency control, LOLE, operating reserve, system reliability

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Authors: Sarah Holdren, Laura Crook, Anne Drapkin Lyerly

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Objective: The COVID-19 Pandemic has drawn new attention to long-existing bioethical questions around pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood. Due to the increased risk of severe COVID-19, pregnant individuals may experience anxiety regarding medical decision-making. Especially in the case of hospital births, questions around the ethics of bringing healthy pregnant individuals into a high-risk environment for viral transmission illuminate gaps in the American maternal and child healthcare system. Limited research has sought to understand the experiences of those who gave birth outside hospitals during this time. This study aims to understand pregnant individuals’ conceptualization of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individuals who gave birth after March 2020 were recruited through advertisements on social media. Participants completed a 1-hour semi-structured interview and a demographic questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed and coded by members of the research team using thematic narrative analysis. Results: A total of 18 participants were interviewed and completed the demographic questionnaire. The language of risk was utilized in birth narratives in three different ways, which highlighted the multileveled and nuanced ways in which risk is understood and mitigated by pregnant and birthing individuals. These included: 1. The risk of contracting COVID-19 before, during, and after birth, 2. The risk of birth complications requiring medical interventions dependent on selected birthing space (home, birthing center, hospital), and 3. The overall risk of creating life in the middle of a pandemic. The risk of contracting COVID-19 and risk of birth complications were often weighed in paradoxical ways throughout each individual’s pregnancy, while phrases such as “pandemic baby” and “apocalypse” appeared throughout narratives and highlighted the broader implications of pregnancy and childbirth during this momentous time. Conclusions: Healthcare professionals should consider the variety of ways that pregnant and birthing individuals understand the risk when counseling patients on healthcare decisions, especially during times of healthcare crisis such as COVID-19. Future work should look to understand how the language of risk fits into a broader understanding of the human experience of growing life in times of crisis.

Keywords: maternal and child health, thematic narrative analysis, COVID-19, risk mitigation

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: R. R. Dewi Rahmawaty Aktyani Putri, Earmporn Thongkrajai, Dedy Purwito

Abstract:

There were many instruments have been developed to assess social support which has the different dimension in breast cancer patients. The Issue of measurement is a challenge to determining the component of dimensional concept, defining the unit of measurement, and establishing the validity and reliability of the measurement. However, the instruments where need to know how much support which obtained and perceived among women with breast cancer who undergone chemotherapy which it can help nurses to prevent of non-adherence in chemotherapy. This study aimed to measure the reliability of BC-SSAS instrument among 30 Indonesian women with breast cancer aged 18 years and above who undergone chemotherapy for six cycles in the oncological unit of Outpatient Department (OPD), Margono Soekardjo Hospital, Central Java, Indonesia. Data were collected during October to December 2015 by using modified the Breast Cancer Social Support Assessment (BC-SSAS). The Cronbach’s alpha analysis was carried out to measure internal consistency for reliability test of BC-SSAS instrument. This study used five experts for content validity index. The results showed that for content validity, I-CVI was 0.98 and S-CVI was 0.98; Cronbach’s alpha value was 0.971 and the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the subscales were high, with 0.903 for emotional support, 0.865 for informational support, 0.901 for tangible support, 0.897 for appraisal support and 0.884 for positive interaction support. The results confirmed that the BC-SSAS instrument has high reliability. BC-SSAS instruments were reliable and can be used in health care services to measure the social support received and perceived among women with breast cancer who undergone chemotherapy so that preventive interventions can be developed and the quality of health services can be improved.

Keywords: BC-SSAS, women with breast cancer, chemotherapy, Indonesia

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Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

Abstract:

Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

Abstract:

The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

Abstract:

Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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