Search results for: negative binomial model
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 20704

Search results for: negative binomial model

17254 Urban Growth Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks in Athens, Greece

Authors: Dimitrios Triantakonstantis, Demetris Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modeling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modeling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, CORINE, urban atlas, urban growth prediction

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17253 Mathematical Model of the Spread of Herpes Simplex Virus Type-2 in Heterosexual Relations with and without Condom Usage in a College Population

Authors: Jacob A. Braun

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This paper uses mathematical modeling to show the spread of Herpes Simplex type-2 with and without the usage of condoms in a college population. The model uses four differential equations to calculate the data for the simulation. The dt increment used is one week. It also runs based on a fixated period. The period chosen was five years to represent time spent in college. The average age of the individual is 21, once again to represent the age of someone in college. In the total population, there are almost two times as many women who have Herpes Simplex Type-2 as men. Additionally, Herpes Simplex Type-2 does not have a known cure. The goal of the model is to show how condom usage affects women’s chances of receiving the virus in the hope of being able to reduce the number of women infected. In the end, the model demonstrates that condoms offer significant protection to women from the virus. Since fewer women are infected with the virus when condoms are used, in turn, fewer males are infected. Since Herpes Simplex Type-2 affects the carrier for their whole life, a small decrease of infections could lead to large ramifications over time. Specifically, a small decrease of infections at a young age, such as college, could have a very big effect on the long-term number of people infected with the virus.

Keywords: college, condom, Herpes, mathematical modelling

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17252 Optimistic Expectations and Satisfaction with Life as Antecedents of Emigration Attitudes among Bulgarian Millennials and Zoomers

Authors: Diana Ivanova Bakalova, Ekaterina Evtimova Dimitrova

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictive power of optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in the country of origin and residence – Bulgaria, over the attitudes towards emigration among young Bulgarians with regard to their generational belonging and differences (i.e. Generation Y or Millennials, born between 1981-1995/6, and Generation Z or Zoomers, born between 1996/7-2012). Although the correlation between satisfaction with life and migration (attitudes) has been studied in some countries, it has neither been examined to date in Bulgaria – a sending rather than receiving Eastern European country, nor scrutinized in the light of generational differences. Within a national survey(N=1200), representative of young Bulgarians aged 18-35 years – Zoomers aged 18-25years (N=444) and Millennials aged 26-35 years (N=756), carried out in September-October 2021, optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in Bulgaria were respectively measured by a 5-item and4-item scales. The scales were designed to measure optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in the country, as both general constructs and in terms of specific areas of life (education, profession, career, and income). The findings suggest that the higher satisfaction with life in Bulgaria is associated with more optimistic expectations about one’s further professional, financial, and career growth in the country and reasonably, with more negative attitudes towards emigration of young Bulgarians. Although no significant differences were found between Millennials and Zoomers in their optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in Bulgaria, Millennials are still significantly less likely to emigrate than Zoomers. Positively, the population of young Bulgarians demonstrates higher than average satisfaction with life and optimism for their prospects in the country combined with neutral to negative overall attitudes towards emigration. These findings have some important interdisciplinary psychological and demographic theoretical, applied, and policy implications. The survey is carried out under Project КП-06-Н35/4 “Psychological determinants of young people's attitudes to emigration and life planning in the context of demographic challenges in Bulgaria,” funded by the NSF - MES, Bulgaria.

Keywords: optimistic expectations, life satisfaction, emigration attitudes, young bulgerians

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17251 The Study of Implications on Modern Businesses Performances by Digital Communities: Case of Data Leak

Authors: Asim Majeed, Anwar Ul Haq, Ayesha Asim, Mike Lloyd-Williams, Arshad Jamal, Usman Butt

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This study aims to investigate the impact of data leak of M&S customers on digital communities. Modern businesses are using digital communities as an important public relations tool for marketing purposes. This form of communication helps companies to build better relationship with their customers which also act as another source of information. The communication between the customers and the organizations is not regulated so users may post positive and negative comments. There are new platforms being developed on a daily basis and it is very crucial for the businesses to not only get themselves familiar with those but also know how to reach their existing and perspective consumers. The driving force of marketing and communication in modern businesses is the digital communities and these are continuously increasing and developing. This phenomenon is changing the way marketing is conducted. The current research has discussed the implications on M&S business performance since the data was exploited on digital communities; users contacted M&S and raised the security concerns. M&S closed down its website for few hours to try to resolve the issue. The next day M&S made a public apology about this incidence. This information was proliferated on various digital communities and it has impacted negatively on M&S brand name, sales and customers. The content analysis approach is being used to collect qualitative data from 100 digital bloggers including social media communities such as Facebook and Twitter. The results and finding provide useful new insights into the nature and form of security concerns of digital users. Findings have theoretical and practical implications. This research will showcase a large corporation utilizing various digital community platforms and can serve as a model for future organizations.

Keywords: Digital, communities, performance, dissemination, implications, data, exploitation

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17250 The Curse of Oil: Unpacking the Challenges to Food Security in the Nigeria's Niger Delta

Authors: Abosede Omowumi Babatunde

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While the Niger Delta region satisfies the global thirst for oil, the inhabitants have not been adequately compensated for the use of their ancestral land. Besides, the ruthless exploitation and destruction of the natural environment upon which the inhabitants of the Niger Delta depend for their livelihood and sustenance by the activities of oil multinationals, pose major threats to food security in the region and by implication, Nigeria in general, Africa, and the world, given the present global emphasis on food security. This paper examines the effect of oil exploitation on household food security, identify key gaps in measures put in place to address the changes to livelihoods and food security and explore what should be done to improve the local people access to sufficient, safe and culturally acceptable food in the Niger Delta. Data is derived through interviews with key informants and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) conducted with respondents in the local communities in the Niger Delta states of Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers as well as relevant extant studies. The threat to food security is one important aspect of the human security challenges in the Niger Delta which has received limited scholarly attention. In addition, successive Nigerian governments have not meaningfully addressed the negative impacts of oil-induced environmental degradation on traditional livelihoods given the significant linkages between environmental sustainability, livelihood security, and food security. The destructive impact of oil pollution on the farmlands, crops, economic trees, creeks, lakes, and fishing equipment is so devastating that the people can no longer engage in productive farming and fishing. Also important is the limited access to modern agricultural methods for fishing and subsistence farming as fishing and farming are done using mostly crude implements and traditional methods. It is imperative and urgent to take stock of the negative implications of the activities of oil multinationals for environmental and livelihood sustainability, and household food security in the Niger Delta.

Keywords: challenges, food security, Nigeria's Niger delta, oil

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17249 The Effects of the Interaction between Prenatal Stress and Diet on Maternal Insulin Resistance and Inflammatory Profile

Authors: Karen L. Lindsay, Sonja Entringer, Claudia Buss, Pathik D. Wadhwa

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Maternal nutrition and stress are independently recognized as among the most important factors that influence prenatal biology, with implications for fetal development and poor pregnancy outcomes. While there is substantial evidence from non-pregnancy human and animal studies that a complex, bi-directional relationship exists between nutrition and stress, to the author’s best knowledge, their interaction in the context of pregnancy has been significantly understudied. The aim of this study is to assess the interaction between maternal psychological stress and diet quality across pregnancy and its effects on biomarkers of prenatal insulin resistance and inflammation. This is a prospective longitudinal study of N=235 women carrying a healthy, singleton pregnancy, recruited from prenatal clinics of the University of California, Irvine Medical Center. Participants completed a 4-day ambulatory assessment in early, middle and late pregnancy, which included multiple daily electronic diary entries using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) technology on a dedicated study smartphone. The EMA diaries gathered moment-level data on maternal perceived stress, negative mood, positive mood and quality of social interactions. The numerical scores for these variables were averaged across each study time-point and converted to Z-scores. A single composite variable for 'STRESS' was computed as follows: (Negative mood+Perceived stress)–(Positive mood+Social interaction quality). Dietary intakes were assessed by three 24-hour dietary recalls conducted within two weeks of each 4-day assessment. Daily nutrient and food group intakes were averaged across each study time-point. The Alternative Healthy Eating Index adapted for pregnancy (AHEI-P) was computed for early, middle and late pregnancy as a validated summary measure of diet quality. At the end of each 4-day ambulatory assessment, women provided a fasting blood sample, which was assayed for levels of glucose, insulin, Interleukin (IL)-6 and Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-α. Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) was computed. Pearson’s correlation was used to explore the relationship between maternal STRESS and AHEI-P within and between each study time-point. Linear regression was employed to test the association of the stress-diet interaction (STRESS*AHEI-P) with the biological markers HOMA-IR, IL-6 and TNF-α at each study time-point, adjusting for key covariates (pre-pregnancy body mass index, maternal education level, race/ethnicity). Maternal STRESS and AHEI-P were significantly inversely correlated in early (r=-0.164, p=0.018) and mid-pregnancy (-0.160, p=0.019), and AHEI-P from earlier gestational time-points correlated with later STRESS (early AHEI-P x mid STRESS: r=-0.168, p=0.017; mid AHEI-P x late STRESS: r=-0.142, p=0.041). In regression models, the interaction term was not associated with HOMA-IR or IL-6 at any gestational time-point. The stress-diet interaction term was significantly associated with TNF-α according to the following patterns: early AHEI-P*early STRESS vs early TNF-α (p=0.005); early AHEI-P*early STRESS vs mid TNF-α (p=0.002); early AHEI-P*mid STRESS vs mid TNF-α (p=0.005); mid AHEI-P*mid STRESS vs mid TNF-α (p=0.070); mid AHEI-P*late STRESS vs late TNF-α (p=0.011). Poor diet quality is significantly related to higher psychosocial stress levels in pregnant women across gestation, which may promote inflammation via TNF-α. Future prenatal studies should consider the combined effects of maternal stress and diet when evaluating either one of these factors on pregnancy or infant outcomes.

Keywords: diet quality, inflammation, insulin resistance, nutrition, pregnancy, stress, tumor necrosis factor-alpha

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17248 Research on Supply Chain Coordination Based on Lateral Transshipment in the Background of New Retail

Authors: Yue Meng, Lingyun Wei

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In this paper, the coordination problem of a supply chain system composed of multiple retailers and manufacturers is studied under the background of the new retail supply chain. Taking a system composed of two retailers and one manufacturer as an example, this paper introduces an online store owned by the manufacturer to reflect the characteristics of the combination of online and offline new retail. Then, this paper gives the conditions that need to be satisfied to realize the coordination between retailers and manufacturers, such as the revenue sharing coefficient. The supply chain coordination model is compared with the newsboy model through a specific example. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the profits of the coordinated supply chain and its members are better than the corresponding profits under the newsboy model; that is, the coordination of the supply chain is realized by using the revenue sharing contract and the transshipment fund mechanism.

Keywords: transshipment, coordination, multi-retailer, revenue-sharing contract

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17247 Marosok Tradition in the Process of Buying and Selling Cattle in Payakumbuh: A Comparative Study between Adat Law and Positive Law of Indonesia

Authors: Mhd. Zakiul Fikri, M. Agus Maulidi

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Indonesia is a constitutional state. As the constitutional state, Indonesia is not only using a single legal system, but also adopting three legal systems consist of: The European continental legal system or positive law of Indonesia, adat law system, and legal system of religion. This study will discuss Marosok tradition in the process of buying and selling cattle in Payakumbuh: a comparative study between adat law and positive law of Indonesia. The objectives of this research are: First, to find the meaning of the philosophical of Marosok tradition in Payakumbuh. Second, to find the legal implications of the Marosok tradition reviewed aspects of adat law and positive law of Indonesia. Third, to find legal procedure in arbitrating the dispute wich is potentially appear in the post-process of buying and selling cattle based on positive law and adat law adopted in Indonesia. This research is empirical legal research that using two model approaches which are statute approach and conceptual approach. Data was obtained through interviews, observations, and documents or books. Then a method of data analysis used is inductive analysis. Finally, this study found that: First, tradition of Marosok contains the meaning of harmonization of social life that keep people from negative debate, envy, and arrogant. Second, Marosok tradition is one of the adat law in Indonesia; it is one of contract law in the process of buying and selling. If the comparison between the practice Marosok tradition as adat law with the provisions of Article 1320 book of civil code about the terms of the validity of a contract, the elements contained in the provisions of these regulations are met in practice Marosok. Thus, the practice of Marosok in buying and selling cattle process in Payakumbuh justified in view of the positive law of Indonesia. Last of all, all kinds of disputes arising due to contracts made by Marosok tradition can be resolved by positive law and adat law of Indonesia.

Keywords: Adat law, contract, Indonesia, Marosok

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17246 Image Instance Segmentation Using Modified Mask R-CNN

Authors: Avatharam Ganivada, Krishna Shah

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The Mask R-CNN is recently introduced by the team of Facebook AI Research (FAIR), which is mainly concerned with instance segmentation in images. Here, the Mask R-CNN is based on ResNet and feature pyramid network (FPN), where a single dropout method is employed. This paper provides a modified Mask R-CNN by adding multiple dropout methods into the Mask R-CNN. The proposed model has also utilized the concepts of Resnet and FPN to extract stage-wise network feature maps, wherein a top-down network path having lateral connections is used to obtain semantically strong features. The proposed model produces three outputs for each object in the image: class label, bounding box coordinates, and object mask. The performance of the proposed network is evaluated in the segmentation of every instance in images using COCO and cityscape datasets. The proposed model achieves better performance than the state-of-the-networks for the datasets.

Keywords: instance segmentation, object detection, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, computer vision

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17245 Measuring Strategic Management Maturity: An Empirical Study in Turkish Public and Private Sector Organizations

Authors: F. Demir

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Strategic Management is highly critical for all types of organizations. This paper examines maturity level of strategic management practices of public and private sector organizations in Turkey, and presents a conceptual model for assessing the maturity of strategic management in any organization. This research focuses on R&D intensive organizations (RDO) because it is claimed that such organizations are more innovative and innovation is a critical part of the model. The Strategic management maturity model (S-3M) is basically composed of six maturity levels with five different dimensions. Based on 63 organizations, the findings reveal that the average maturity of all organizations in the sample group is three out of five. It corresponds to the stage of ‘performed’. Results simply show that the majority of organizations from various industries and sectors implement strategic management activities; however, they experience multiple challenges to optimize strategic management processes and integrate organizational components with business strategies. Briefly, they struggle to become an innovative organization.

Keywords: strategic management maturity, innovation, developing countries, research and development

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17244 Effects of Changes in LULC on Hydrological Response in Upper Indus Basin

Authors: Ahmad Ammar, Umar Khan Khattak, Muhammad Majid

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Empirically based lumped hydrologic models have an extensive track record of use for various watershed managements and flood related studies. This study focuses on the impacts of LULC change for 10 year period on the discharge in watershed using lumped model HEC-HMS. The Indus above Tarbela region acts as a source of the main flood events in the middle and lower portions of Indus because of the amount of rainfall and topographic setting of the region. The discharge pattern of the region is influenced by the LULC associated with it. In this study the Landsat TM images were used to do LULC analysis of the watershed. Satellite daily precipitation TRMM data was used as input rainfall. The input variables for model building in HEC-HMS were then calculated based on the GIS data collected and pre-processed in HEC-GeoHMS. SCS-CN was used as transform model, SCS unit hydrograph method was used as loss model and Muskingum was used as routing model. For discharge simulation years 2000 and 2010 were taken. HEC-HMS was calibrated for the year 2000 and then validated for 2010.The performance of the model was assessed through calibration and validation process and resulted R2=0.92 during calibration and validation. Relative Bias for the years 2000 was -9% and for2010 was -14%. The result shows that in 10 years the impact of LULC change on discharge has been negligible in the study area overall. One reason is that, the proportion of built-up area in the watershed, which is the main causative factor of change in discharge, is less than 1% of the total area. However, locally, the impact of development was found significant in built up area of Mansehra city. The analysis was done on Mansehra city sub-watershed with an area of about 16 km2 and has more than 13% built up area in 2010. The results showed that with an increase of 40% built-up area in the city from 2000 to 2010 the discharge values increased about 33 percent, indicating the impact of LULC change on discharge value.

Keywords: LULC change, HEC-HMS, Indus Above Tarbela, SCS-CN

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17243 Constructing a Semi-Supervised Model for Network Intrusion Detection

Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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17242 Analyzing the Impact of Board Diversity on Firm Performance: Case Study of the Nigerian Banking Sector

Authors: Data Collete Bob-Manuel

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In light of global financial crisis in 2007-2008 various factors including board diversity, succession planning and board evaluation have been identified as essential ingredients in ensuring board effectiveness. The composition and structure of the board is of outmost importance in assessing a board’s ability and success in achieving its objectives. Following the corporate frauds and accounting scandals such as Enron, WorldCom, Parmalat, Oceanic Bank Nigeria and AfriBank Nigeria, there has been a notable amount of research about the effectiveness of the board of directors in the corporate governance of firms. The need to have an effective board cannot be over emphasized as it results in a more stable and thriving company. There has been an overarching need in the business world for a more diverse workforce and board of directors. Big corporations like Texaco, Ford Motors and DuPont have stated how diversity at every level of the workforce including the board of directors has been cited as a vital element for a company to succeed. Developed countries are also seeking for companies to have a more diverse board. For instance Norway has implemented a 60:40 board ratio to all companies. In West Africa, particularly Nigeria, the topic of diversity has received little attention as most studies conducted have focused on the gender aspect of diversity, which results found to have a negative impact on firm performance. This paper seeks to examine four variables of diversity; age, ethnicity, gender and skills to weigh the positive or negative impact the variables have on firm performance, based on evidence from the Nigerian Financial sector. Information used for this study will be gathered from financial statements and annual reports so as to enable the researcher to reflect on past years to know what is being done differently today. The findings of this study will help the researcher to develop a working definition for ethnicity with regards to the West African context where the issue of “tribe” is a sensitive topic.

Keywords: Board of Directors, Board Diversity, Firm Performance, Nigeria

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17241 We Are Thriving: Increasing the Number of Women in Engineering

Authors: Kathryn Redmond, Mojdeh Asadollahi Pajouh, Grace Panther, Rick Evans, Stacey Kulesza, Jia Liang

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An on-going focus in engineering education research is on increasing the number of women in engineering. While the number of women participating in engineering project teams has increased over the past five years, the number of women enrolled in engineering colleges remains stagnant. Previous studies have explored why the number of women enrolled in engineering colleges remains small. In doing so, researchers focused primarily on negative experiences women encountered. Instead of looking at negative experiences, which can further deter women from entering the field, the aim of this study is to explore the personal and institutional factors that allow women to succeed and thrive in undergraduate engineering programs. There are two research questions addressed in this paper. The first is: what are the personal traits and characteristics that allow women to thrive in engineering? The other is: what are the institutional policies and culture, as well as micro-level behaviors on project teams, that influence the environment for women to thrive in engineering? Two women studying engineering at an R1 university were interviewed. Each woman was interviewed three times for a total of six interviews. The phenomenographic interviews focused on the lived experiences of the participants to better understand thriving in engineering. The first interview focused on the women’s personal life and background, the second on their learning journey and project team experiences, and the third focused on videos the women took through a method called Photovoice. Interviews were transcribed, and an inductive thematic analysis was conducted. Four themes were identified. Multiple coders were utilized to ensure trustworthiness and increase interrater reliability. Results indicate that thriving women have supportive families, experienced gender biases, and enjoy hands-on engineering and creating a final product. These traits and experiences may help inspire younger women to pursue engineering degrees and can help inform institutions as they make policy changes to support women. Additional women will be recruited from four different universities to further develop a theoretical framework to help inform institutions in how they can support women to thrive in engineering.

Keywords: diversity, inclusion, project teams, women in engineering

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17240 A New Realization of Multidimensional System for Grid Sensor Network

Authors: Yang Xiong, Hua Cheng

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In this paper, for the basic problem of wireless sensor network topology control and deployment, the Roesser model in rectangular grid sensor networks is presented. In addition, a general constructive realization procedure will be proposed. The procedure enables a distributed implementation of linear systems on a sensor network. A non-trivial example is illustrated.

Keywords: grid sensor networks, Roesser model, state-space realization, multidimensional systems

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17239 Estimation of PM2.5 Emissions and Source Apportionment Using Receptor and Dispersion Models

Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

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Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM₂.₅, fugitive, emission inventory

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17238 Temperature Control Improvement of Membrane Reactor

Authors: Pornsiri Kaewpradit, Chalisa Pourneaw

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Temperature control improvement of a membrane reactor with exothermic and reversible esterification reaction is studied in this work. It is well known that a batch membrane reactor requires different control strategies from a continuous one due to the fact that it is operated dynamically. Due to the effect of the operating temperature, the suitable control scheme has to be designed based reliable predictive model to achieve a desired objective. In the study, the optimization framework has been preliminary formulated in order to determine an optimal temperature trajectory for maximizing a desired product. In model predictive control scheme, a set of predictive models have been initially developed corresponding to the possible operating points of the system. The multiple predictive control moves have been further calculated on-line using the developed models corresponding to current operating point. It is obviously seen in the simulation results that the temperature control has been improved compared to the performance obtained by the conventional predictive controller. Further robustness tests have also been investigated in this study.

Keywords: model predictive control, batch reactor, temperature control, membrane reactor

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17237 Self-Reported Health Status and Its Consistency: Evidence from India

Authors: Dona Ghosh, Zakir Husain

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In India, the increase in share of aged has generated many social and economic issues, of which health concerns is a major challenge that society must confront in coming years. Self-reported health (SRH) is a popular health measure in this regard but has been questioned in recent years due to its heavy dependence on the socioeconomic status. So, the validity of SRH, as a measure of health status during old age, is needed to be verified. This paper emphasizes on the self-reported health and related inconsistent responses among elderly in India. The objective of the study is bifurcated into two parts: firstly, to identify the socioeconomic determinants of subjective health status and its change over time; and secondly, to analyse the role of the socioeconomic components in providing inconsistent responses regarding the health status of elderly. Inconsistency in response can rise in two ways: positive response bias (if an individual has a health problem but reports his/her health as good) and negative response bias (if bad health is reported even if there is no health problem). However, in the present study, we focus only on the negative response bias of elderly individuals. To measure the inconsistencies in responses, self-reported health is compared with two types of physical health conditions – existence of chronicle ailment and physical immobility. Using NSS dataset of 60th and 71st rounds, the study found that subjective health has worsened over time in both rural and urban areas. Findings suggest that inconsistency in responses, related to chronic ailment, vary across social classes, living environments, geographical regions, age groups and education levels. On the contrary, variation in inconsistent responses regarding physical mobility is quite rare and difficult to explain by socioeconomic characteristics because most of the indicators are found to be insignificant in this regard. The findings indicate that in case of chronicle ailment, inconsistency between objective and subjective health status largely depends on socioeconomic conditions but the importance of such factors disappears for physical immobility.

Keywords: India, aging, self-reported health, inconsistent responses

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17236 The Negative Effects of Controlled Motivation on Mathematics Achievement

Authors: John E. Boberg, Steven J. Bourgeois

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The decline in student engagement and motivation through the middle years is well documented and clearly associated with a decline in mathematics achievement that persists through high school. To combat this trend and, very often, to meet high-stakes accountability standards, a growing number of parents, teachers, and schools have implemented various methods to incentivize learning. However, according to Self-Determination Theory, forms of incentivized learning such as public praise, tangible rewards, or threats of punishment tend to undermine intrinsic motivation and learning. By focusing on external forms of motivation that thwart autonomy in children, adults also potentially threaten relatedness measures such as trust and emotional engagement. Furthermore, these controlling motivational techniques tend to promote shallow forms of cognitive engagement at the expense of more effective deep processing strategies. Therefore, any short-term gains in apparent engagement or test scores are overshadowed by long-term diminished motivation, resulting in inauthentic approaches to learning and lower achievement. The current study focuses on the relationships between student trust, engagement, and motivation during these crucial years as students transition from elementary to middle school. In order to test the effects of controlled motivational techniques on achievement in mathematics, this quantitative study was conducted on a convenience sample of 22 elementary and middle schools from a single public charter school district in the south-central United States. The study employed multi-source data from students (N = 1,054), parents (N = 7,166), and teachers (N = 356), along with student achievement data and contextual campus variables. Cross-sectional questionnaires were used to measure the students’ self-regulated learning, emotional and cognitive engagement, and trust in teachers. Parents responded to a single item on incentivizing the academic performance of their child, and teachers responded to a series of questions about their acceptance of various incentive strategies. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to evaluate model fit and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the predictor variables on achievement. Although a student’s trust in teacher positively predicted both emotional and cognitive engagement, none of these three predictors accounted for any variance in achievement in mathematics. The parents’ use of incentives, on the other hand, predicted a student’s perception of his or her controlled motivation, and these two variables had significant negative effects on achievement. While controlled motivation had the greatest effects on achievement, parental incentives demonstrated both direct and indirect effects on achievement through the students’ self-reported controlled motivation. Comparing upper elementary student data with middle-school student data revealed that controlling forms of motivation may be taking their toll on student trust and engagement over time. While parental incentives positively predicted both cognitive and emotional engagement in the younger sub-group, such forms of controlling motivation negatively predicted both trust in teachers and emotional engagement in the middle-school sub-group. These findings support the claims, posited by Self-Determination Theory, about the dangers of incentivizing learning. Short-term gains belie the underlying damage to motivational processes that lead to decreased intrinsic motivation and achievement. Such practices also appear to thwart basic human needs such as relatedness.

Keywords: controlled motivation, student engagement, incentivized learning, mathematics achievement, self-determination theory, student trust

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17235 A Predator-Prey Model with Competitive Interaction amongst the Preys

Authors: Titus G. Kassem, Izang A. Nyam

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A mathematical model is constructed to study the effect of predation on two competing species in which one of the competing species is a prey to the predator whilst the other species are not under predation. Conditions for the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions were determined. Numerical simulation results indicate the possibility of a stable coexistence of the three interacting species in form of stable oscillations under certain parameter values. We also noticed that under some certain parameter values, species under predation go into extinction.

Keywords: competition, predator-prey, species, ecology

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17234 Matching Law in Autoshaped Choice in Neural Networks

Authors: Giselle Maggie Fer Castañeda, Diego Iván González

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The objective of this work was to study the autoshaped choice behavior in the Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) neural network model and analyze it under the matching law. Autoshaped choice can be viewed as a form of economic behavior defined as the preference between alternatives according to their relative outcomes. The Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) model is a connectionist proposal that unifies operant and Pavlovian conditioning. This model has been used for more than three decades as a neurobehavioral explanation of conditioning phenomena, as well as a generator of predictions suitable for experimental testing with non-human animals and humans. The study consisted of different simulations in which, in each one, a ratio of reinforcement was established for two alternatives, and the responses (i.e., activations) in each of them were measured. Choice studies with animals have demonstrated that the data generally conform closely to the generalized matching law equation, which states that the response ratio equals proportionally to the reinforcement ratio; therefore, it was expected to find similar results with the neural networks of the Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) model since these networks have simulated and predicted various conditioning phenomena. The results were analyzed by the generalized matching law equation, and it was observed that under some contingencies, the data from the networks adjusted approximately to what was established by the equation. Implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: matching law, neural networks, computational models, behavioral sciences

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17233 Numerical Modeling of Waves and Currents by Using a Hydro-Sedimentary Model

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, mike21, sediment

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17232 Knowledge Decision of Food Waste and Loss Reduction in Supply Chain System: A Case Study of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Nadia Adnan, Muhammad Mohsin Raza, Latha Ravindran

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Based on the principles above, the study presents an economic model of food waste for consumers, intermediaries, and producers. We discriminate between purchasing and selling, purchases versus customers consumption, and gross output versus sales for each intermediary. To compensate for waste at each level of the supply chain, agents must charge higher sales prices. The research model can produce more accurate predictions about how actions (public regulations or private efforts) to reduce food waste impact markets, including indirect (cascading) effects. With a formal model, researchers demonstrate the uniqueness of these interaction effects and simulate an empirical model calibrated to market characteristics and waste rates in Saudi Arabia. Researchers demonstrate that the effects of waste reduction differ per commodity, depending on supply and demand elasticities, degree of openness to international commerce, and the beginning rates of food loss and waste at each level of the value chain. Because of the consequential effects related to the supply chain, initiatives to minimize food waste will be strengthened in some circumstances and partially countered in others.

Keywords: food loss, food waste, supply chain management, Saudi Arabia, food supply

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17231 Effect of Humic Acids on Agricultural Soil Structure and Stability and Its Implication on Soil Quality

Authors: Omkar Gaonkar, Indumathi Nambi, Suresh G. Kumar

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The functional and morphological aspects of soil structure determine the soil quality. The dispersion of colloidal soil particles, especially the clay fraction and rupture of soil aggregates, both of which play an important role in soil structure development, lead to degradation of soil quality. The main objective of this work was to determine the effect of the behaviour of soil colloids on the agricultural soil structure and quality. The effect of commercial humic acid and soil natural organic matter on the electrical and structural properties of the soil colloids was also studied. Agricultural soil, belonging to the sandy loam texture class from northern part of India was considered in this study. In order to understand the changes in the soil quality in the presence and absence of humic acids, the soil fabric and structure was analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Electrical properties of natural soil colloids in aqueous suspensions were assessed by zeta potential measurements at varying pH values with and without the presence of humic acids. The influence of natural organic matter was analyzed by oxidizing the natural soil organic matter with hydrogen peroxide. The zeta potential of the soil colloids was found to be negative in the pH range studied. The results indicated that hydrogen peroxide treatment leads to deflocculation of colloidal soil particles. In addition, the humic acids undergoes effective adsorption onto the soil surface imparting more negative zeta potential to the colloidal soil particles. The soil hydrophilicity decreased in the presence of humic acids which was confirmed by surface free energy determination. Thus, it can be concluded that the presence of humic acids altered the soil fabric and structure, thereby affecting the soil quality. This study assumes significance in understanding soil aggregation and the interactions at soil solid-liquid interface.

Keywords: humic acids, natural organic matter, zeta potential, soil quality

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17230 The Promotion Effects for a Supply Chain System with a Dominant Retailer

Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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17229 Analytical Solution of the Boundary Value Problem of Delaminated Doubly-Curved Composite Shells

Authors: András Szekrényes

Abstract:

Delamination is one of the major failure modes in laminated composite structures. Delamination tips are mostly captured by spatial numerical models in order to predict crack growth. This paper presents some mechanical models of delaminated composite shells based on shallow shell theories. The mechanical fields are based on a third-order displacement field in terms of the through-thickness coordinate of the laminated shell. The undelaminated and delaminated parts are captured by separate models and the continuity and boundary conditions are also formulated in a general way providing a large size boundary value problem. The system of differential equations is solved by the state space method for an elliptic delaminated shell having simply supported edges. The comparison of the proposed and a numerical model indicates that the primary indicator of the model is the deflection, the secondary is the widthwise distribution of the energy release rate. The model is promising and suitable to determine accurately the J-integral distribution along the delamination front. Based on the proposed model it is also possible to develop finite elements which are able to replace the computationally expensive spatial models of delaminated structures.

Keywords: J-integral, levy method, third-order shell theory, state space solution

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17228 Parameter Estimation of Additive Genetic and Unique Environment (AE) Model on Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 Using Bayesian Method

Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

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17227 Modeling of Tool Flank Wear in Finish Hard Turning of AISI D2 Using Genetic Programming

Authors: V. Pourmostaghimi, M. Zadshakoyan

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Efficiency and productivity of the finish hard turning can be enhanced impressively by utilizing accurate predictive models for cutting tool wear. However, the ability of genetic programming in presenting an accurate analytical model is a notable characteristic which makes it more applicable than other predictive modeling methods. In this paper, the genetic equation for modeling of tool flank wear is developed with the use of the experimentally measured flank wear values and genetic programming during finish turning of hardened AISI D2. Series of tests were conducted over a range of cutting parameters and the values of tool flank wear were measured. On the basis of obtained results, genetic model presenting connection between cutting parameters and tool flank wear were extracted. The accuracy of the genetically obtained model was assessed by using two statistical measures, which were root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). Evaluation results revealed that presented genetic model predicted flank wear over the study area accurately (R² = 0.9902 and RMSE = 0.0102). These results allow concluding that the proposed genetic equation corresponds well with experimental data and can be implemented in real industrial applications.

Keywords: cutting parameters, flank wear, genetic programming, hard turning

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
17226 A New Index for the Differential Diagnosis of Morbid Obese Children with and without Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a severe health problem which is common among obese individuals. The components of MetS are rather stable in adults compared to the components discussed for children. Due to the ambiguity in this group of the population, how to diagnose MetS in morbid obese (MO) children still constitutes a matter of discussion. For this purpose, a formula, which facilitates the diagnosis of MetS in MO children, was investigated. The aim of this study was to develop a formula which was capable of discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings. Study population comprised MO children. Age and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles of the children were above 99. Metabolic syndrome components were also determined. Elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP), elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), elevated triglycerides (TRG), and/or depressed high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS components for each child. Presence of at least two of these components confirmed that the case was MetS. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, there were forty-two MO children without MetS components. Second group was composed of forty-four MO children with at least two MetS components. Anthropometric measurements, including weight, height, waist, and hip circumferences, were performed following physical examination. Body mass index and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance values were calculated. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Institutional Non-Interventional Ethics Committee approved the study design. Blood pressure values were recorded. Routine biochemical analysis, including FBG, insulin (INS), TRG, HDL-C were performed. The performance and the clinical utility of the Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Metabolic Syndrome Index (DONMA MetS index) [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)*100] was tested. Appropriate statistical tests were applied to the study data. p value smaller than 0.05 was defined as significant. Metabolic syndrome index values were 41.6±5.1 in MO group and 104.4±12.8 in MetS group. Corresponding values for HDL-C values were 54.5±13.2 mg/dl and 44.2±11.5 mg/dl. There were statistically significant differences between the groups (p<0.001). Upon evaluation of the correlations between MetS index and HDL-C values, a much stronger negative correlation was found in MetS group (r=-0.515; p=0.001) in comparison with the correlation detected in MO group (r=-0.371; p=0.016). From these findings, it was concluded that the statistical significance degree of the difference between MO and MetS groups was highly acceptable for this recently introduced MetS index as expected. This was due to the involvement of all of the biochemically defined MetS components into the index. This is particularly important because each of these four parameters used in the formula is cardiac risk factor. Aside from discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings, MetS index introduced in this study is important from the cardiovascular risk point of view in MetS group of children.

Keywords: children, fasting blood glucose, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, index, insulin, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, triglycerides.

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17225 The Effect of Material Properties and Volumetric Changes in Phase Transformation to the Final Residual Stress of Welding Process

Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

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The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

Procedia PDF Downloads 270