Search results for: estimation purposes
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 3469

Search results for: estimation purposes

139 Teaching Linguistic Humour Research Theories: Egyptian Higher Education EFL Literature Classes

Authors: O. F. Elkommos

Abstract:

“Humour studies” is an interdisciplinary research area that is relatively recent. It interests researchers from the disciplines of psychology, sociology, medicine, nursing, in the work place, gender studies, among others, and certainly teaching, language learning, linguistics, and literature. Linguistic theories of humour research are numerous; some of which are of interest to the present study. In spite of the fact that humour courses are now taught in universities around the world in the Egyptian context it is not included. The purpose of the present study is two-fold: to review the state of arts and to show how linguistic theories of humour can be possibly used as an art and craft of teaching and of learning in EFL literature classes. In the present study linguistic theories of humour were applied to selected literary texts to interpret humour as an intrinsic artistic communicative competence challenge. Humour in the area of linguistics was seen as a fifth component of communicative competence of the second language leaner. In literature it was studied as satire, irony, wit, or comedy. Linguistic theories of humour now describe its linguistic structure, mechanism, function, and linguistic deviance. Semantic Script Theory of Verbal Humor (SSTH), General Theory of Verbal Humor (GTVH), Audience Based Theory of Humor (ABTH), and their extensions and subcategories as well as the pragmatic perspective were employed in the analyses. This research analysed the linguistic semantic structure of humour, its mechanism, and how the audience reader (teacher or learner) becomes an interactive interpreter of the humour. This promotes humour competence together with the linguistic, social, cultural, and discourse communicative competence. Studying humour as part of the literary texts and the perception of its function in the work also brings its positive association in class for educational purposes. Humour is by default a provoking/laughter-generated device. Incongruity recognition, perception and resolving it, is a cognitive mastery. This cognitive process involves a humour experience that lightens up the classroom and the mind. It establishes connections necessary for the learning process. In this context the study examined selected narratives to exemplify the application of the theories. It is, therefore, recommended that the theories would be taught and applied to literary texts for a better understanding of the language. Students will then develop their language competence. Teachers in EFL/ESL classes will teach the theories, assist students apply them and interpret text and in the process will also use humour. This is thus easing students' acquisition of the second language, making the classroom an enjoyable, cheerful, self-assuring, and self-illuminating experience for both themselves and their students. It is further recommended that courses of humour research studies should become an integral part of higher education curricula in Egypt.

Keywords: ABTH, deviance, disjuncture, episodic, GTVH, humour competence, humour comprehension, humour in the classroom, humour in the literary texts, humour research linguistic theories, incongruity-resolution, isotopy-disjunction, jab line, longer text joke, narrative story line (macro-micro), punch line, six knowledge resource, SSTH, stacks, strands, teaching linguistics, teaching literature, TEFL, TESL

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138 Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the Retina Clinic at a Tertiary Center in Makkah Province, Saudi Arabia: A Retrospective Record Review

Authors: Rahaf Mandura, Fatmah Abusharkh, Layan Kurdi, Rahaf Shigdar, Khadijah Alattas

Abstract:

Introduction: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in older individuals are serious health issues that severely impact the quality of life of millions globally. In 2020, the fourth leading cause of blindness worldwide was AMD. The global prevalence of AMD is estimated to be around 8.7%. AMD is a progressive disease involving the macular region of the retina, and it has a complex pathophysiology. RPE cell dysfunction plays a crucial step in the pathway leading to irreversible degeneration of photoreceptors with yellowish lipid-rich, protein-containing drusen deposits accumulating between Bruch's membrane and the RPE. Furthermore, lipofuscinogenesis, drusogenesis, inflammation, and neovascularization are four main processes responsible for the formation of the two types of AMD: the wet (exudative, neovascular) and dry (non-exudative, geographic atrophy) types. We retrospectively evaluated the prevalence of AMD among patients visiting the retina clinic at King Abdulaziz University Hospital (Jeddah, Makkah Province, Saudi Arabia) to identify the commonly associated risk factors of AMD. Methods: The records of 3,067 individuals from 2017 to 2021 were reviewed. Of these, 1,935 satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in this study. We excluded all patient below 18 years, and those who did not undergo fundus imaging or attend their booked appointments, follow-ups, treatments, and referrals were excluded. Results: The prevalence of AMD among the patients was 4%. The age of patients with AMD was significantly greater than those without AMD (72.4 ± 9.8 years vs. 57.2 ± 15.5 years; p < 0.001). Participants with a family history of AMD tended to have the disease more than those without such a history (85.7% vs. 45%; p = 0.043). Ex- and current smokers were more likely to have AMD than non-smokers (34% and 18.6% vs. 7.2%; p < 0.001). Patients with hypertension and those without type 1 diabetes were at a higher risk of developing AMD than those without hypertension (5.5% vs. 2.8%; p = 0.002) and those with type 1 diabetes (4.2% vs. 0.8%; p = 0.040). In contrast, sex, nationality, type 2 diabetes, and abnormal lipid profile were not significantly associated with AMD. Regarding the clinical characteristics of AMD cases, most cases (70.4%) were of the dry type and affected both eyes (77.2%). The disease duration was ≥5 years in 43.1% of the patients. The most frequent chronic diseases associated with AMD were type 2 diabetes (69.1%), hypertension (61.7%), and dyslipidemia (18.5%). Conclusion: In summary, our single tertiary center study showed that AMD is widely prevalent in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (4%) and linked to a wide range of risk factors. Some of these are modifiable risk factors that can be adjusted to help reduce AMD occurrence. Furthermore, this study has shown the importance of screening and follow-up of family members of patients with AMD to promote early detection and intervention of AMD. We recommend conducting further research on AMD in Saudi Arabia. Concerning the study design, a community-based cross-sectional study would be more helpful for assessing the disease's prevalence. Finally, recruiting a larger sample size is required for more accurate estimation.

Keywords: age related macular degeneration, prevelence, risk factor, dry AMD

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137 Qualitative Research on German Household Practices to Ease the Risk of Poverty

Authors: Marie Boost

Abstract:

Despite activation policies, forced personal initiative to step out of unemployment and a general prosper economic situation, poverty and financial hardship constitute a crucial role in the daily lives of many families in Germany. In 2015, ~16 million persons (20.2%) of the German population are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. This is illustrated by an unemployment rate of 13.3% in the research area, located in East Germany. Despite this high amount of persons living in vulnerable households, we know little about how they manage to stabilize their lives or even overcome poverty – apart from solely relying on welfare state benefits or entering in a stable, well-paid job. Most of them are struggling in precarious living circumstances, switching from one or several short-term, low-paid jobs into self-employment or unemployment, sometimes accompanied by welfare state benefits. Hence, insecurity and uncertain future expectation form a crucial part of their lives. Within the EU-funded project “RESCuE”, resilient practices of vulnerable households were investigated in nine European countries. Approximately, 15 expert interviews with policy makers, representatives from welfare state agencies, NGOs and charity organizations and 25 household interviews have been conducted within each country. It aims to find out more about the chances and conditions of social resilience. The research is based on the triangulation of biographical narrative interviews, followed by participatory photo interviews, asking the household members to portray their typical everyday life. The presentation is focusing on the explanatory strength of this mixed-methods approach in order to show the potential of household practices to overcome financial hardship. The methodological combination allows an in-depth analysis of the families and households everyday living circumstances, including their poverty and employment situation, whether formal and informal. Active household budgeting practices, such as saving and consumption practices are based on subsistence or Do-It-Yourself work. Especially due to the photo-interviews, the importance of inherent cultural and tacit knowledge becomes obvious as it pictures their typical practices, like cultivation and gathering fruits and vegetables or going fishing. One of the central findings is the multiple purposes of these practices. They contribute to ease financial burden through consumption reduction and strengthen social ties, as they are mostly conducted with close friends or family members. In general, non-commodified practices are found to be re-commodified and to contribute to ease financial hardship, e.g. by the use of commons, barter trade or simple mutual exchange (gift exchange). These practices can substitute external purchases and reduce expenses or even generate a small income. Mixing different income sources are found to be the most likely way out of poverty within the context of a precarious labor market. But these resilient household practices take its toll as they are highly preconditioned, and many persons put themselves into risk of overstressing themselves. Thus, the potentials and risks of resilient household practices are reflected in the presentation.

Keywords: consumption practices, labor market, qualitative research, resilience

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136 Characterization of Alloyed Grey Cast Iron Quenched and Tempered for a Smooth Roll Application

Authors: Mohamed Habireche, Nacer E. Bacha, Mohamed Djeghdjough

Abstract:

In the brick industry, smooth double roll crusher is used for medium and fine crushing of soft to medium hard material. Due to opposite inward rotation of the rolls, the feed material is nipped between the rolls and crushed by compression. They are subject to intense wear, known as three-body abrasion, due to the action of abrasive products. The production downtime affecting productivity stems from two sources: the bi-monthly rectification of the roll crushers and their replacement when they are completely worn out. Choosing the right material for the roll crushers should result in longer machine cycles, and reduced repair and maintenance costs. All roll crushers are imported from outside Algeria. This results in sometimes very long delivery times which handicap the brickyards, in particular in respecting delivery times and honored the orders made by customers. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of alloying additions on microstructure and wear behavior of grey lamellar cast iron for smooth roll crushers in brick industry. The base gray iron was melted in an induction furnace with low frequency at a temperature of 1500 °C, in which return cast iron scrap, new cast iron ingot, and steel scrap were added to the melt to generate the desired composition. The chemical analysis of the bar samples was carried out using Emission Spectrometer Systems PV 8050 Series (Philips) except for the carbon, for which a carbon/sulphur analyser Elementrac CS-i was used. Unetched microstructure was used to evaluate the graphite flake morphology using the image comparison measurement method. At least five different fields were selected for quantitative estimation of phase constituents. The samples were observed under X100 magnification with a Zeiss Axiover T40 MAT optical microscope equipped with a digital camera. SEM microscope equipped with EDS was used to characterize the phases present in the microstructure. The hardness (750 kg load, 5mm diameter ball) was measured with a Brinell testing machine for both treated and as-solidified condition test pieces. The test bars were used for tensile strength and metallographic evaluations. Mechanical properties were evaluated using tensile specimens made as per ASTM E8 standards. Two specimens were tested for each alloy. From each rod, a test piece was made for the tensile test. The results showed that the quenched and tempered alloys had best wear resistance at 400 °C for alloyed grey cast iron (containing 0.62%Mn, 0.68%Cr, and 1.09% Cu) due to fine carbides in the tempered matrix. In quenched and tempered condition, increasing Cu content in cast irons improved its wear resistance moderately. Combined addition of Cu and Cr increases hardness and wear resistance for a quenched and tempered hypoeutectic grey cast iron.

Keywords: casting, cast iron, microstructure, heat treating

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135 A Mainstream Aesthetic for African American Female Filmmakers

Authors: Tracy L. F. Worley

Abstract:

This presentation explores the environment that has limited leadership opportunities for Black women in cinema and advocates for autonomy among Black women filmmakers that is facilitated by strong internal and external networks and cooperative opportunities. Early images of African Americans in motion pictures were often conceptualized from the viewpoint of a White male director and depicted by White actors. The black film evolved in opposition to this context, leading to a Black film aesthetic. The oppositional context created in response to racist, misogynistic, and sexist representations in motion pictures sets the tone for female filmmakers of every hue – but especially for African American women. For them, the context of a male gaze, and for all intents and purposes, a White male gaze, forces them to create their own aesthetic. Theoretically, men and women, filmmakers and spectators have different perspectives across race, ethnicity, and gender. Two feminist theorists, bell hooks and Mary Ann Doane, suggest that female filmmakers are perceived as disparate from male filmmakers and that women, in general, are defined by what men see. Mary Ann Doane, a White feminist film theorist, has focused extensively on female spectatorship and women (White) in general as the object of the male gaze. Her discussion of the female body, male perception of it, and feminism in the motion picture industry support the suggestion that comprehending the organization and composition of Hollywood is critical to understanding women’s roles in the industry. Although much of her research addresses the silent film era and women’s roles then, Doane suggests that across cinematic periods, the theory assigned to “cinematic apparatus” is formulated within a context of sexuality. Men and women are viewed and treated differently in cinema (in front of and behind the camera), with women’s attractiveness and allure photographed specifically for the benefit of the “spectatorial desire” of the male gaze. Bell Hooks, an African American feminist writer and theorist with more than 30 published books and articles on race, gender, class, and culture in feminism and education, suggests that women can overcome the male gaze by using their “oppositional gaze” to transform reality and establish their own truth. She addresses gender within the context of race by acknowledging the realities faced by African American women and the fact that the feminist movement was never intended to include Black women. A grounded theory study led to the development of a leadership theory that explains why African American women are disproportionately represented in a mainstream motion picture leadership. The study helped to reveal the barriers to entry and illuminated potential strategies that African American female motion picture directors might pursue to reduce this inequity. Using semi-structured interviews as the primary means for data collection, the lived experiences of African American female directors and organizational leadership’s perceived role in the perpetuation of negative female imagery in major motion pictures led to the identification of support strategies for African American female motion picture directors that counter social stereotyping and validate the need for social networking in the mainstream.

Keywords: African American, cinema, directors, filmmaking, leadership, women

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134 Case-Based Reasoning for Modelling Random Variables in the Reliability Assessment of Existing Structures

Authors: Francesca Marsili

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The reliability assessment of existing structures with probabilistic methods is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. However probabilistic reliability methods are based on an exhaustive knowledge of the stochastic modeling of the variables involved in the assessment; at the moment standards for the modeling of variables are absent, representing an obstacle to the dissemination of probabilistic methods. The framework according to probability distribution functions (PDFs) are established is represented by the Bayesian statistics, which uses Bayes Theorem: a prior PDF for the considered parameter is established based on information derived from the design stage and qualitative judgments based on the engineer past experience; then, the prior model is updated with the results of investigation carried out on the considered structure, such as material testing, determination of action and structural properties. The application of Bayesian statistics arises two different kind of problems: 1. The results of the updating depend on the engineer previous experience; 2. The updating of the prior PDF can be performed only if the structure has been tested, and quantitative data that can be statistically manipulated have been collected; performing tests is always an expensive and time consuming operation; furthermore, if the considered structure is an ancient building, destructive tests could compromise its cultural value and therefore should be avoided. In order to solve those problems, an interesting research path is represented by investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques that can be useful for the automation of the modeling of variables and for the updating of material parameters without performing destructive tests. Among the others, one that raises particular attention in relation to the object of this study is constituted by Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). In this application, cases will be represented by existing buildings where material tests have already been carried out and an updated PDFs for the material mechanical parameters has been computed through a Bayesian analysis. Then each case will be composed by a qualitative description of the material under assessment and the posterior PDFs that describe its material properties. The problem that will be solved is the definition of PDFs for material parameters involved in the reliability assessment of the considered structure. A CBR system represent a good candi¬date in automating the modelling of variables because: 1. Engineers already draw an estimation of the material properties based on the experience collected during the assessment of similar structures, or based on similar cases collected in literature or in data-bases; 2. Material tests carried out on structure can be easily collected from laboratory database or from literature; 3. The system will provide the user of a reliable probabilistic description of the variables involved in the assessment that will also serve as a tool in support of the engineer’s qualitative judgments. Automated modeling of variables can help in spreading probabilistic reliability assessment of existing buildings in the common engineering practice, and target at the best intervention and further tests on the structure; CBR represents a technique which may help to achieve this.

Keywords: reliability assessment of existing buildings, Bayesian analysis, case-based reasoning, historical structures

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133 Long-Term Exposure Assessments for Cooking Workers Exposed to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Aldehydes Containing in Cooking Fumes

Authors: Chun-Yu Chen, Kua-Rong Wu, Yu-Cheng Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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Cooking fumes are known containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and aldehydes, and some of them have been proven carcinogenic or possibly carcinogenic to humans. Considering their chronic health effects, long-term exposure data is required for assessing cooking workers’ lifetime health risks. Previous exposure assessment studies, due to both time and cost constraints, mostly were based on the cross-sectional data. Therefore, establishing a long-term exposure data has become an important issue for conducting health risk assessment for cooking workers. An approach was proposed in this study. Here, the generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes from a cooking process were determined by placing a sampling train exactly under the under the exhaust fan under the both the total enclosure condition and normal operating condition, respectively. Subtracting the concentration collected by the former (representing the total emitted concentration) from that of the latter (representing the hood collected concentration), the fugitive emitted concentration was determined. The above data was further converted to determine the generation rates based on the flow rates specified for the exhaust fan. The determinations of the above generation rates were conducted in a testing chamber with a selected cooking process (deep-frying chicken nuggets under 3 L peanut oil at 200°C). The sampling train installed under the exhaust fan consisted respectively an IOM inhalable sampler with a glass fiber filter for collecting particle-phase PAHs, followed by a XAD-2 tube for gas-phase PAHs. The above was also used to sample aldehydes, however, installed with a filter pre-coated with DNPH, and followed by a 2,4-DNPH-cartridge for collecting particle-phase and gas-phase aldehydes, respectively. PAHs and aldehydes samples were analyzed by GC/MS-MS (Agilent 7890B), and HPLC-UV (HITACHI L-7100), respectively. The obtained generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes were applied to the near-field/ far-field exposure model to estimate the exposures of cooks (the estimated near-field concentration), and helpers (the estimated far-field concentration). For validating purposes, both PAHs and aldehydes samplings were conducted simultaneously using the same sampling train at both near-field and far-field sites of the testing chamber. The sampling results, together with the use of the mixed-effect model, were used to calibrate the estimated near-field/ far-field exposures. In the present study, the obtained emission rates were further converted to emission factor of both PAHs and aldehydes according to the amount of food oil consumed. Applying the long-term food oil consumption records, the emission rates for both PAHs and aldehydes were determined, and the long-term exposure databanks for cooks (the estimated near-field concentration), and helpers (the estimated far-field concentration) were then determined. Results show that the proposed approach was adequate to determine the generation rates of both PAHs and aldehydes under various fan exhaust flow rate conditions. The estimated near-field/ far-field exposures, though were significantly different from that obtained from the field, can be calibrated using the mixed effect model. Finally, the established long-term data bank could provide a useful basis for conducting long-term exposure assessments for cooking workers exposed to PAHs and aldehydes.

Keywords: aldehydes, cooking oil fumes, long-term exposure assessment, modeling, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

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132 Numerical Simulation of Hydraulic Fracture Propagation in Marine-continental Transitional Tight Sandstone Reservoirs by Boundary Element Method: A Case Study of Shanxi Formation in China

Authors: Jiujie Cai, Fengxia LI, Haibo Wang

Abstract:

After years of research, offshore oil and gas development now are shifted to unconventional reservoirs, where multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technology has been widely used. However, the simulation of complex hydraulic fractures in tight reservoirs is faced with geological and engineering difficulties, such as large burial depths, sand-shale interbeds, and complex stress barriers. The objective of this work is to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation in the tight sandstone matrix of the marine-continental transitional reservoirs, where the Shanxi Formation in Tianhuan syncline of the Dongsheng gas field was used as the research target. The characteristic parameters of the vertical rock samples with rich beddings were clarified through rock mechanics experiments. The influence of rock mechanical parameters, vertical stress difference of pay-zone and bedding layer, and fracturing parameters (such as injection rates, fracturing fluid viscosity, and number of perforation clusters within single stage) on fracture initiation and propagation were investigated. In this paper, a 3-D fracture propagation model was built to investigate the complex fracture propagation morphology by boundary element method, considering the strength of bonding surface between layers, vertical stress difference and fracturing parameters (such as injection rates, fluid volume and viscosity). The research results indicate that on the condition of vertical stress difference (3 MPa), the fracture height can break through and enter the upper interlayer when the thickness of the overlying bedding layer is 6-9 m, considering effect of the weak bonding surface between layers. The fracture propagates within the pay zone when overlying interlayer is greater than 13 m. Difference in fluid volume distribution between clusters could be more than 20% when the stress difference of each cluster in the segment exceeds 2MPa. Fracture cluster in high stress zones cannot initiate when the stress difference in the segment exceeds 5MPa. The simulation results of fracture height are much higher if the effect of weak bonding surface between layers is not involved. By increasing the injection rates, increasing fracturing fluid viscosity, and reducing the number of clusters within single stage can promote the fracture height propagation through layers. Optimizing the perforation position and reducing the number of perforations can promote the uniform expansion of fractures. Typical curves of fracture height estimation were established for the tight sandstone of the Lower Permian Shanxi Formation. The model results have good consistency with micro-seismic monitoring results of hydraulic fracturing in Well 1HF.

Keywords: fracture propagation, boundary element method, fracture height, offshore oil and gas, marine-continental transitional reservoirs, rock mechanics experiment

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131 Coming Closer to Communities of Practice through Situated Learning: The Case Study of Polish-English, English-Polish Undergraduate BA Level Language for Specific Purposes of Translation Class

Authors: Marta Lisowska

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The growing trend of market specialization imposes upon translators the need for proficiency in the working knowledge of specialist discourse. The notion of specialization differs from a broad general category to a highly specialized narrow field. The specialised discourse is used in the channel of communication based upon distinctive features typical for communities of practice whose co-existence is codified and hermetically locked against outsiders. Consequently, any translator deprived of professional discourse competence and social skills is incapable of providing competent translation product from source language into target language. In this paper, we report on research that explores the pedagogical practices aiming to bridge the dichotomy between the professionals and the specialist translators, while accounting for the reality of the world of professional communities entered by undergraduates on two levels: the text-based generic, and the social one. Drawing from the functional social constructivist approach, seen here as situated learning, this paper reports on the case of English-Polish, Polish-English undergraduate BA Level LSP of law translation class run in line with the simulated classroom-based and the reality-based (apprenticeship) approach. This blended method serves the purpose of introducing the young trainees to the professional world. The research provides new insights into how the LSP translation undergraduates become legitimized through discursive and social participation and engagement. The undergraduates, situated peripherally at the outset, experience their own transformation towards becoming members of these professional groups. With subjective evaluation, the trainees take a stance on this dual mode class and development of their skills. Comparing and contrasting their own work done in line with two models of translation teaching: authentic and near-authentic, the undergraduates answer research questions devised by a questionnaire survey The responses take us closer to how students feel about their LSP translation competence development. The major findings show how the trainees perceive the benefits and hardships of their functional translation class. In terms of skills, they related to communication as the most enhanced one; they highly valued the fact of being ‘exposed’ to a variety of texts (cf. multi literalism), team work, learning how to schedule work, IT skills boost and the ability to learn how to work individually. Another finding indicates that students struggled most with specialized language, and co-working with other students. The short-term research shows the momentum when the undergraduate LSP translation trainees entered the path of transformation i.e. gained consciousness of ‘how it is’ to be a participant-translator of real-life communities of practice, gaining pragmatic dint of the social and linguistic skills understood here as discursive competence (text > genre > discourse > professional practice). The undergraduates need to be aware of the work they have to do and challenges they are to face before arriving at the expert level of professional translation competence.

Keywords: communities of practice in LSP translation teaching, learning LSP translation as situated experience, peripheral participation, professional discourse for LSP translation teaching, professional translation competence

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130 Assessing Moisture Adequacy over Semi-arid and Arid Indian Agricultural Farms using High-Resolution Thermography

Authors: Devansh Desai, Rahul Nigam

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Crop water stress (W) at a given growth stage starts to set in as moisture availability (M) to roots falls below 75% of maximum. It has been found that ratio of crop evapotranspiration (ET) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an indicator of moisture adequacy and is strongly correlated with ‘M’ and ‘W’. The spatial variability of ET0 is generally less over an agricultural farm of 1-5 ha than ET, which depends on both surface and atmospheric conditions, while the former depends only on atmospheric conditions. Solutions from surface energy balance (SEB) and thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing are now known to estimate latent heat flux of ET. In the present study, ET and moisture adequacy index (MAI) (=ET/ET0) have been estimated over two contrasting western India agricultural farms having rice-wheat system in semi-arid climate and arid grassland system, limited by moisture availability. High-resolution multi-band TIR sensing observations at 65m from ECOSTRESS (ECOsystemSpaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station) instrument on-board International Space Station (ISS) were used in an analytical SEB model, STIC (Surface Temperature Initiated Closure) to estimate ET and MAI. The ancillary variables used in the ET modeling and MAI estimation were land surface albedo, NDVI from close-by LANDSAT data at 30m spatial resolution, ET0 product at 4km spatial resolution from INSAT 3D, meteorological forcing variables from short-range weather forecast on air temperature and relative humidity from NWP model. Farm-scale ET estimates at 65m spatial resolution were found to show low RMSE of 16.6% to 17.5% with R2 >0.8 from 18 datasets as compared to reported errors (25 – 30%) from coarser-scale ET at 1 to 8 km spatial resolution when compared to in situ measurements from eddy covariance systems. The MAI was found to show lower (<0.25) and higher (>0.5) magnitudes in the contrasting agricultural farms. The study showed the potential need of high-resolution high-repeat spaceborne multi-band TIR payloads alongwith optical payload in estimating farm-scale ET and MAI for estimating consumptive water use and water stress. A set of future high-resolution multi-band TIR sensors are planned on-board Indo-French TRISHNA, ESA’s LSTM, NASA’s SBG space-borne missions to address sustainable irrigation water management at farm-scale to improve crop water productivity. These will provide precise and fundamental variables of surface energy balance such as LST (Land Surface Temperature), surface emissivity, albedo and NDVI. A synchronization among these missions is needed in terms of observations, algorithms, product definitions, calibration-validation experiments and downstream applications to maximize the potential benefits.

Keywords: thermal remote sensing, land surface temperature, crop water stress, evapotranspiration

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129 Effects of the In-Situ Upgrading Project in Afghanistan: A Case Study on the Formally and Informally Developed Areas in Kabul

Authors: Maisam Rafiee, Chikashi Deguchi, Akio Odake, Minoru Matsui, Takanori Sata

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Cities in Afghanistan have been rapidly urbanized; however, many parts of these cities have been developed with no detailed land use plan or infrastructure. In other words, they have been informally developed without any government leadership. The new government started the In-situ Upgrading Project in Kabul to upgrade roads, the water supply network system, and the surface water drainage system on the existing street layout in 2002, with the financial support of international agencies. This project is an appropriate emergency improvement for living life, but not an essential improvement of living conditions and infrastructure problems because the life expectancies of the improved facilities are as short as 10–15 years, and residents cannot obtain land tenure in the unplanned areas. The Land Readjustment System (LRS) conducted in Japan has good advantages that rearrange irregularly shaped land lots and develop the infrastructure effectively. This study investigates the effects of the In-situ Upgrading Project on private investment, land prices, and residents’ satisfaction with projects in Kart-e-Char, where properties are registered, and in Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, where properties are unregistered. These projects are located 5 km and 7 km from the CBD area of Kabul, respectively. This study discusses whether LRS should be applied to the unplanned area based on the questionnaire and interview responses of experts experienced in the In-situ Upgrading Project who have knowledge of LRS. The analysis results reveal that, in Kart-e-Char, a lot of private investment has been made in the construction of medium-rise (five- to nine-story) buildings for commercial and residential purposes. Land values have also incrementally increased since the project, and residents are commonly satisfied with the road pavement, drainage systems, and water supplies, but dissatisfied with the poor delivery of electricity as well as the lack of public facilities (e.g., parks and sport facilities). In Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, basic infrastructures like paved roads and surface water drainage systems have improved from the project. After the project, a few four- and five-story residential buildings were built with very low-level private investments, but significant increases in land prices were not evident. The residents are satisfied with the contribution ratio, drainage system, and small increase in land price, but there is still no drinking water supply system or tenure security; moreover, there are substandard paved roads and a lack of public facilities, such as parks, sport facilities, mosques, and schools. The results of the questionnaire and interviews with the four engineers highlight the problems that remain to be solved in the unplanned areas if LRS is applied—namely, land use differences, types and conditions of the infrastructure still to be installed by the project, and time spent for positive consensus building among the residents, given the project’s budget limitation.

Keywords: in-situ upgrading, Kabul city, land readjustment, land value, planned area, private investment, residents' satisfaction, unplanned area

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128 Use of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Efficient Irrigation Management

Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro

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This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.

Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 27
127 Sorbitol Galactoside Synthesis Using β-Galactosidase Immobilized on Functionalized Silica Nanoparticles

Authors: Milica Carević, Katarina Banjanac, Marija ĆOrović, Ana Milivojević, Nevena Prlainović, Aleksandar Marinković, Dejan Bezbradica

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Nowadays, considering the growing awareness of functional food beneficial effects on human health, due attention is dedicated to the research in the field of obtaining new prominent products exhibiting improved physiological and physicochemical characteristics. Therefore, different approaches to valuable bioactive compounds synthesis have been proposed. β-Galactosidase, for example, although mainly utilized as hydrolytic enzyme, proved to be a promising tool for these purposes. Namely, under the particular conditions, such as high lactose concentration, elevated temperatures and low water activities, reaction of galactose moiety transfer to free hydroxyl group of the alternative acceptor (e.g. different sugars, alcohols or aromatic compounds) can generate a wide range of potentially interesting products. Up to now, galacto-oligosaccharides and lactulose have attracted the most attention due to their inherent prebiotic properties. The goal of this study was to obtain a novel product sorbitol galactoside, using the similar reaction mechanism, namely transgalactosylation reaction catalyzed by β-galactosidase from Aspergillus oryzae. By using sugar alcohol (sorbitol) as alternative acceptor, a diverse mixture of potential prebiotics is produced, enabling its more favorable functional features. Nevertheless, an introduction of alternative acceptor into the reaction mixture contributed to the complexity of reaction scheme, since several potential reaction pathways were introduced. Therefore, the thorough optimization using response surface method (RSM), in order to get an insight into different parameter (lactose concentration, sorbitol to lactose molar ratio, enzyme concentration, NaCl concentration and reaction time) influences, as well as their mutual interactions on product yield and productivity, was performed. In view of product yield maximization, the obtained model predicted optimal lactose concentration 500 mM, the molar ratio of sobitol to lactose 9, enzyme concentration 0.76 mg/ml, concentration of NaCl 0.8M, and the reaction time 7h. From the aspect of productivity, the optimum substrate molar ratio was found to be 1, while the values for other factors coincide. In order to additionally, improve enzyme efficiency and enable its reuse and potential continual application, immobilization of β-galactosidase onto tailored silica nanoparticles was performed. These non-porous fumed silica nanoparticles (FNS)were chosen on the basis of their biocompatibility and non-toxicity, as well as their advantageous mechanical and hydrodinamical properties. However, in order to achieve better compatibility between enzymes and the carrier, modifications of the silica surface using amino functional organosilane (3-aminopropyltrimethoxysilane, APTMS) were made. Obtained support with amino functional groups (AFNS) enabled high enzyme loadings and, more importantly, extremely high expressed activities, approximately 230 mg proteins/g and 2100 IU/g, respectively. Moreover, this immobilized preparation showed high affinity towards sorbitol galactoside synthesis. Therefore, the findings of this study could provided a valuable contribution to the efficient production of physiologically active galactosides in immobilized enzyme reactors.

Keywords: β-galactosidase, immobilization, silica nanoparticles, transgalactosylation

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
126 Partnering With Key Stakeholders for Successful Implementation of Inhaled Analgesia for Specific Emergency Department Presentations

Authors: Sarah Hazelwood, Janice Hay

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Methoxyflurane is an inhaled analgesic administered via a disposable inhaler, which has been used in Australia for 40 years for the management of pain in children & adults. However, there is a lack of data for methoxyflurane as a frontline analgesic medication within the emergency department (ED). This study will investigate the usefulness of methoxyflurane in a private inner-city ED. The study concluded that the inclusion of all key stakeholders in the prescribing, administering & use of this new process led to comprehensive uptake & vastly positive outcomes for consumer & health professionals. Method: A 12-week prospective pilot study was completed utilizing patients presenting to the ED in pain (numeric pain rating score > 4) that fit the requirement of methoxyflurane use (as outlined in the Australian Prescriber information package). Nurses completed a formatted spreadsheet for each interaction where methoxyflurane was used. Patient demographics, day, time, initial numeric pain score, analgesic response time, the reason for use, staff concern (free text), & patient feedback (free text), & discharge time was documented. When clinical concern was raised, the researcher retrieved & reviewed patient notes. Results: 140 methoxyflurane inhalers were used. 60% of patients were 31 years of age & over (n=82) with 16% aged 70+. The gender split; 51% male: 49% female. Trauma-related pain (57%) saw the highest use of administration, with the evening hours (1500-2259) seeing the greatest numbers used (39%). Tuesday, Thursday & Sunday shared the highest daily use throughout the study. A minimum numerical pain score of 4/10 (n=13, 9%), with the ranges of 5 - 7/10 (moderate pain) being given by almost 50% of patients. Only 3 instances of pain scores increased post use of methoxyflurane (all other entries showed pain score < initial rating). Patients & staff noted obvious analgesic response within 3 minutes (n= 96, 81%, of administration). Nurses documented a change in patient vital signs for 4 of the 15 patient-related concerns; the remaining concerns were due to “gagging” on the taste, or “having a coughing episode”; one patient tried to leave the department before the procedure was attended (very euphoric state). Upon review of the staff concerns – no adverse events occurred & return to therapeutic vitals occurred within 10 minutes. Length of stay for patients was compared with similar presentations (such as dislocated shoulder or ankle fracture) & saw an average 40-minute decrease in time to discharge. Methoxyflurane treatment was rated “positively” by > 80% of patients – with remaining feedback related to mild & transient concerns. Staff similarly noted a positive response to methoxyflurane as an analgesic & as an added tool for frontline analgesic purposes. Conclusion: Methoxyflurane should be used on suitable patient presentations requiring immediate, short term pain relief. As a highly portable, non-narcotic avenue to treat pain this study showed obvious therapeutic benefit, positive feedback, & a shorter length of stay in the ED. By partnering with key stake holders, this study determined methoxyflurane use decreased work load, decreased wait time to analgesia, and increased patient satisfaction.

Keywords: analgesia, benefits, emergency, methoxyflurane

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
125 A Hardware-in-the-loop Simulation for the Development of Advanced Control System Design for a Spinal Joint Wear Simulator

Authors: Kaushikk Iyer, Richard M Hall, David Keeling

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Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation is an advanced technique for developing and testing complex real-time control systems. This paper presents the benefits of HIL simulation and how it can be implemented and used effectively to develop, test, and validate advanced control algorithms used in a spinal joint Wear simulator for the Tribological testing of spinal disc prostheses. spinal wear simulator is technologically the most advanced machine currently employed For the in-vitro testing of newly developed spinal Discimplants. However, the existing control techniques, such as a simple position control Does not allow the simulator to test non-sinusoidal waveforms. Thus, there is a need for better and advanced control methods that can be developed and tested Rigorouslybut safely before deploying it into the real simulator. A benchtop HILsetupis was created for experimentation, controller verification, and validation purposes, allowing different control strategies to be tested rapidly in a safe environment. The HIL simulation aspect in this setup attempts to replicate similar spinal motion and loading conditions. The spinal joint wear simulator containsa four-Barlinkpowered by electromechanical actuators. LabVIEW software is used to design a kinematic model of the spinal wear Simulator to Validatehow each link contributes towards the final motion of the implant under test. As a result, the implant articulates with an angular motion specified in the international standards, ISO-18192-1, that define fixed, simplified, and sinusoid motion and load profiles for wear testing of cervical disc implants. Using a PID controller, a velocity-based position control algorithm was developed to interface with the benchtop setup that performs HIL simulation. In addition to PID, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) was also developed that acts as a supervisory controller. FLC provides intelligence to the PID controller by By automatically tuning the controller for profiles that vary in amplitude, shape, and frequency. This combination of the fuzzy-PID controller is novel to the wear testing application for spinal simulators and demonstrated superior performance against PIDwhen tested for a spectrum of frequency. Kaushikk Iyer is a Ph.D. Student at the University of Leeds and an employee at Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom, (e-mail: [email protected], phone: +44 740 541 5502). Richard M Hall is with the University of Leeds, the United Kingdom as a professor in the Mechanical Engineering Department (e-mail: [email protected]). David Keeling is the managing director of Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom (e-mail: [email protected]). Results obtained are successfully validated against the load and motion tolerances specified by the ISO18192-1 standard and fall within limits, that is, ±0.5° at the maxima and minima of the motion and ±2 % of the complete cycle for phasing. The simulation results prove the efficacy of the test setup using HIL simulation to verify and validate the accuracy and robustness of the prospective controller before its deployment into the spinal wear simulator. This method of testing controllers enables a wide range of possibilities to test advanced control algorithms that can potentially test even profiles of patients performing various dailyliving activities.

Keywords: Fuzzy-PID controller, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), real-time simulation, spinal wear simulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
124 OASIS: An Alternative Access to Potable Water, Renewable Energy and Organic Food

Authors: Julien G. Chenet, Mario A. Hernandez, U. Leonardo Rodriguez

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The tropical areas are places where there is scarcity of access to potable water and where renewable energies need further development. They also display high undernourishment levels, even though they are one of the resources-richest areas in the world. In these areas, it is common to count on great extension of soils, high solar radiation and raw water from rain, groundwater, surface water or even saltwater. Even though resources are available, access to them is limited, and the low-density habitat makes central solutions expensive and investments not worthy. In response to this lack of investment, rural inhabitants use fossil fuels and timber as an energy source and import agrochemical for soils fertilization, which increase GHG emissions. The OASIS project brings an answer to this situation. It supplies renewable energy, potable water and organic food. The first step is the determination of the needs of the communities in terms of energy, water quantity and quality, food requirements and soil characteristics. Second step is the determination of the available resources, such as solar energy, raw water and organic residues on site. The pilot OASIS project is located in the Vichada department, Colombia, and ensures the sustainable use of natural resources to meet the community needs. The department has roughly 70% of indigenous people. They live in a very scattered landscape, with no access to clean water and energy. They use polluted surface water for direct consumption and diesel for energy purposes. OASIS pilot will ensure basic needs for a 400-students education center. In this case, OASIS will provide 20 kW of solar energy potential and 40 liters per student per day. Water will be treated form groundwater, with two qualities. A conventional one with chlorine, and as the indigenous people are not used to chlorine for direct consumption, second train is with reverse osmosis to bring conservable safe water without taste. OASIS offers a solution to supply basic needs, shifting from fossil fuels, timber, to a no-GHG-emission solution. This solution is part of the mitigation strategy against Climate Change for the communities in low-density areas of the tropics. OASIS is a learning center to teach how to convert natural resources into utilizable ones. It is also a meeting point for the community with high pedagogic impact that promotes the efficient and sustainable use of resources. OASIS system is adaptable to any tropical area and competes technically and economically with any conventional solution, that needs transport of energy, treated water and food. It is a fully automatic, replicable and sustainable solution to sort out the issue of access to basic needs in rural areas. OASIS is also a solution to undernourishment, ensuring a responsible use of resources, to prevent long-term pollution of soils and groundwater. It promotes the closure of the nutrient cycle, and the optimal use of the land whilst ensuring food security in depressed low-density regions of the tropics. OASIS is under optimization to Vichada conditions, and will be available to any other tropical area in the following months.

Keywords: climate change adaptation and mitigation, rural development, sustainable access to clean and renewable resources, social inclusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
123 The Efficacy of Government Strategies to Control COVID 19: Evidence from 22 High Covid Fatality Rated Countries

Authors: Imalka Wasana Rathnayaka, Rasheda Khanam, Mohammad Mafizur Rahman

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TheCOVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges to both the health and economic states in countries around the world. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of governments' decisions to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 through proposing policy directions to reduce its magnitude. The study is motivated by the ongoing coronavirus outbreaks and comprehensive policy responses taken by countries to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and reduce death rates. This study contributes to filling the knowledge by exploiting the long-term efficacy of extensive plans of governments. This study employs a Panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The panels incorporate both a significant number of variables and fortnightly observations from22 countries. The dependent variables adopted in this study are the fortnightly death rates and the rates of the spread of COVID-19. Mortality rate and the rate of infection data were computed based on the number of deaths and the number of new cases per 10000 people.The explanatory variables are fortnightly values of indexes taken to investigate the efficacy of government interventions to control COVID-19. Overall government response index, Stringency index, Containment and health index, and Economic support index were selected as explanatory variables. The study relies on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Measure Tracker (OxCGRT). According to the procedures of ARDL, the study employs (i) the unit root test to check stationarity, (ii) panel cointegration, and (iii) PMG and ARDL estimation techniques. The study shows that the COVID-19 pandemic forced immediate responses from policymakers across the world to mitigate the risks of COVID-19. Of the four types of government policy interventions: (i) Stringency and (ii) Economic Support have been most effective and reveal that facilitating Stringency and financial measures has resulted in a reduction in infection and fatality rates, while (iii) Government responses are positively associated with deaths but negatively with infected cases. Even though this positive relationship is unexpected to some extent in the long run, social distancing norms of the governments have been broken by the public in some countries, and population age demographics would be a possible reason for that result. (iv) Containment and healthcare improvements reduce death rates but increase the infection rates, although the effect has been lower (in absolute value). The model implies that implementation of containment health practices without association with tracing and individual-level quarantine does not work well. The policy implication based on containment health measures must be applied together with targeted, aggressive, and rapid containment to extensively reduce the number of people infected with COVID 19. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that economic support for income and debt relief has been the key to suppressing the rate of COVID-19 infections and fatality rates.

Keywords: COVID-19, infection rate, deaths rate, government response, panel data

Procedia PDF Downloads 58
122 Ruminal Fermentation of Biologically Active Nitrate- and Nitro-Containing Forages

Authors: Robin Anderson, David Nisbet

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Nitrate, 3-nitro-1-propionic acid (NPA) and 3-nitro-1-propanol (NPOH) are biologically active chemicals that can accumulate naturally in rangeland grasses forages consumed by grazing cattle, sheep and goats. While toxic to livestock if accumulations and amounts consumed are high enough, particularly in animals having no recent exposure to the forages, these chemicals are known to be potent inhibitors of methane-producing bacteria inhabiting the rumen. Consequently, there is interest in examining their potential use as anti-methanogenic compounds to decrease methane emissions by grazing ruminants. Presently, rumen microbes, collected freshly from a cannulated Holstein cow maintained on 50:50 corn based concentrate:alfalfa diet were mixed (10 mL fluid) in 18 x 150 mm crimp top tubes with 0.5 of high nitrate-containing barley (Hordeum vulgare; containing 272 µmol nitrate per g forage dry matter), and NPA- or NPOH- containing milkvetch forages (Astragalus canadensis and Astragalus miser containing 80 and 174 soluble µmol NPA or NPOH/g forage dry matter respectively). Incubations containing 0.5 g alfalfa (Medicago sativa) were used as controls. Tubes (3 per each respective forage) were capped and incubated anaerobically (using oxygen free carbon dioxide) for 24 h at 39oC after which time amounts of total gas produced were measured via volume displacement and headspace samples were analyzed by gas chromatography to determine concentrations of hydrogen and methane. Fluid samples were analyzed by gas chromatography to measure accumulations of fermentation acids. A completely randomized analysis of variance revealed that the nitrate-containing barley and both the NPA- and the NPOH-containing milkvetches significantly decreased methane production, by > 50%, when compared to methane produced by populations incubated similarly with alfalfa (70.4 ± 3.6 µmol/ml incubation fluid). Accumulations of hydrogen, which are typically increased when methane production is inhibited, by incubations with the nitrate-containing barley and the NPA- and NPOH-containing milkvetches did not differ from accumulations observed in the alfalfa controls (0.09 ± 0.04 µmol/mL incubation fluid). Accumulations of fermentation acids produced in the incubations containing the high-nitrate barley and the NPA- and NPOH-containing milkvetches likewise did not differ from accumulations observed in incubations containing alfalfa (123.5 ± 10.8, 36.0 ± 3.0, 17.1 ± 1.5, 3.5 ± 0.3, 2.3 ± 0.2, 2.2 ± 0.2 µmol/mL incubation fluid for acetate, propionate, butyrate, valerate, isobutyrate, and isovalerate, respectively). This finding indicates the microbial populations did not compensate for the decreased methane production via compensatory changes in production of fermentative acids. Stoichiometric estimation of fermentation balance revealed that > 77% of reducing equivalents generated during fermentation of the forages were recovered in fermentation products and the recoveries did not differ between the alfalfa incubations and those with the high-nitrate barley or the NPA- or NPOH-containing milkvetches. Stoichiometric estimates of amounts of hexose fermented similarly did not differ between the nitrate-, NPA and NPOH-containing incubations and those with the alfalfa, averaging 99.6 ± 37.2 µmol hexose consumed/mL of incubation fluid. These results suggest that forages containing nitrate, NPA or NPOH may be useful to reduce methane emissions of grazing ruminants provided risks of toxicity can be effectively managed.

Keywords: nitrate, nitropropanol, nitropropionic acid, rumen methane emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
121 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
120 Economic Valuation of Emissions from Mobile Sources in the Urban Environment of Bogotá

Authors: Dayron Camilo Bermudez Mendoza

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Road transportation is a significant source of externalities, notably in terms of environmental degradation and the emission of pollutants. These emissions adversely affect public health, attributable to criteria pollutants like particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and carbon monoxide (CO), and also contribute to climate change through the release of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2). It is, therefore, crucial to quantify the emissions from mobile sources and develop a methodological framework for their economic valuation, aiding in the assessment of associated costs and informing policy decisions. The forthcoming congress will shed light on the externalities of transportation in Bogotá, showcasing methodologies and findings from the construction of emission inventories and their spatial analysis within the city. This research focuses on the economic valuation of emissions from mobile sources in Bogotá, employing methods like hedonic pricing and contingent valuation. Conducted within the urban confines of Bogotá, the study leverages demographic, transportation, and emission data sourced from the Mobility Survey, official emission inventories, and tailored estimates and measurements. The use of hedonic pricing and contingent valuation methodologies facilitates the estimation of the influence of transportation emissions on real estate values and gauges the willingness of Bogotá's residents to invest in reducing these emissions. The findings are anticipated to be instrumental in the formulation and execution of public policies aimed at emission reduction and air quality enhancement. In compiling the emission inventory, innovative data sources were identified to determine activity factors, including information from automotive diagnostic centers and used vehicle sales websites. The COPERT model was utilized to ascertain emission factors, requiring diverse inputs such as data from the national transit registry (RUNT), OpenStreetMap road network details, climatological data from the IDEAM portal, and Google API for speed analysis. Spatial disaggregation employed GIS tools and publicly available official spatial data. The development of the valuation methodology involved an exhaustive systematic review, utilizing platforms like the EVRI (Environmental Valuation Reference Inventory) portal and other relevant sources. The contingent valuation method was implemented via surveys in various public settings across the city, using a referendum-style approach for a sample of 400 residents. For the hedonic price valuation, an extensive database was developed, integrating data from several official sources and basing analyses on the per-square meter property values in each city block. The upcoming conference anticipates the presentation and publication of these results, embodying a multidisciplinary knowledge integration and culminating in a master's thesis.

Keywords: economic valuation, transport economics, pollutant emissions, urban transportation, sustainable mobility

Procedia PDF Downloads 39
119 Smart Mobility Planning Applications in Meeting the Needs of the Urbanization Growth

Authors: Caroline Atef Shoukry Tadros

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Massive Urbanization growth threatens the sustainability of cities and the quality of city life. This raised the need for an alternate model of sustainability, so we need to plan the future cities in a smarter way with smarter mobility. Smart Mobility planning applications are solutions that use digital technologies and infrastructure advances to improve the efficiency, sustainability, and inclusiveness of urban transportation systems. They can contribute to meeting the needs of Urbanization growth by addressing the challenges of traffic congestion, pollution, accessibility, and safety in cities. Some example of a Smart Mobility planning application are Mobility-as-a-service: This is a service that integrates different transport modes, such as public transport, shared mobility, and active mobility, into a single platform that allows users to plan, book, and pay for their trips. This can reduce the reliance on private cars, optimize the use of existing infrastructure, and provide more choices and convenience for travelers. MaaS Global is a company that offers mobility-as-a-service solutions in several cities around the world. Traffic flow optimization: This is a solution that uses data analytics, artificial intelligence, and sensors to monitor and manage traffic conditions in real-time. This can reduce congestion, emissions, and travel time, as well as improve road safety and user satisfaction. Waycare is a platform that leverages data from various sources, such as connected vehicles, mobile applications, and road cameras, to provide traffic management agencies with insights and recommendations to optimize traffic flow. Logistics optimization: This is a solution that uses smart algorithms, blockchain, and IoT to improve the efficiency and transparency of the delivery of goods and services in urban areas. This can reduce the costs, emissions, and delays associated with logistics, as well as enhance the customer experience and trust. ShipChain is a blockchain-based platform that connects shippers, carriers, and customers and provides end-to-end visibility and traceability of the shipments. Autonomous vehicles: This is a solution that uses advanced sensors, software, and communication systems to enable vehicles to operate without human intervention. This can improve the safety, accessibility, and productivity of transportation, as well as reduce the need for parking space and infrastructure maintenance. Waymo is a company that develops and operates autonomous vehicles for various purposes, such as ride-hailing, delivery, and trucking. These are some of the ways that Smart Mobility planning applications can contribute to meeting the needs of the Urbanization growth. However, there are also various opportunities and challenges related to the implementation and adoption of these solutions, such as the regulatory, ethical, social, and technical aspects. Therefore, it is important to consider the specific context and needs of each city and its stakeholders when designing and deploying Smart Mobility planning applications.

Keywords: smart mobility planning, smart mobility applications, smart mobility techniques, smart mobility tools, smart transportation, smart cities, urbanization growth, future smart cities, intelligent cities, ICT information and communications technologies, IoT internet of things, sensors, lidar, digital twin, ai artificial intelligence, AR augmented reality, VR virtual reality, robotics, cps cyber physical systems, citizens design science

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
118 Assessment of Rooftop Rainwater Harvesting in Gomti Nagar, Lucknow

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Water scarcity is a pressing issue in urban areas, even in smart cities where efficient resource management is a priority. This scarcity is mainly caused by factors such as lifestyle changes, excessive groundwater extraction, over-usage of water, rapid urbanization, and uncontrolled population growth. In the specific case of Gomti Nagar, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, the depletion of groundwater resources is particularly severe, leading to a water imbalance and posing a significant challenge for the region's sustainable development. The aim of this study is to address the water shortage in the Gomti Nagar region by focusing on the implementation of artificial groundwater recharge methods. Specifically, the research aims to investigate the effectiveness of rainwater collection through rooftop rainwater harvesting systems (RTRWHs) as a sustainable approach to reduce aquifer depletion and bridge the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction. The research methodology for this study involves the utilization of RTRWHs as the main method for collecting rainwater. This approach is considered effective in managing and conserving water resources in a sustainable manner. The focus is on implementing RTRWHs in residential and commercial buildings to maximize the collection of rainwater and its subsequent utilization for various purposes in the Gomti Nagar region. The study reveals that the installation of RTRWHs in the Gomti Nagar region has a positive impact on addressing the water scarcity issue. Currently, RTRWHs cover only a small percentage (0.04%) of the total rainfall collected in the region. However, when RTRWHs are installed in all buildings, their influence on increasing water availability and reducing aquifer depletion will be significantly greater. The study also highlights the significant water imbalance of 24519 ML/yr in the region, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable water management practices. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of sustainable water management systems in smart cities. By highlighting the effectiveness of RTRWHs in reducing aquifer depletion, it emphasizes the importance of implementing such systems in urban areas. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for policymakers, urban planners, and developers to prioritize and incentivize the installation of RTRWHs as a potential solution to the water shortage crisis. The data for this study were collected through various sources such as government reports, surveys, and existing groundwater abstraction patterns. The collected data were then analysed to assess the current water situation, groundwater depletion rate, and the potential impact of implementing RTRWHs. Statistical analysis and modelling techniques were employed to quantify the water imbalance and evaluate the effectiveness of RTRWHs. The findings of this study demonstrate that the implementation of RTRWHs can effectively mitigate the water scarcity crisis in Gomti Nagar. By reducing aquifer depletion and bridging the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction, RTRWHs offer a sustainable solution to the region's water scarcity challenges. The study highlights the need for widespread adoption of RTRWHs in all buildings and emphasizes the importance of integrating such systems into the urban planning and development process. By doing so, smart cities like Gomti Nagar can achieve efficient water management, ensuring a better future with improved water availability for its residents.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, rainwater, water management, aquifer

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
117 Evaluation of Physical Parameters and in-Vitro and in-Vivo Antidiabetic Activity of a Selected Combined Medicinal Plant Extracts Mixture

Authors: S. N. T. I. Sampath, J. M. S. Jayasinghe, A. P. Attanayake, V. Karunaratne

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Diabetes mellitus is one of the major public health posers throughout the world today that incidence and associated with increasing mortality. Insufficient regulation of the blood glucose level might be serious effects for health and its necessity to identify new therapeutics that have ability to reduce hyperglycaemic condition in the human body. Even though synthetic antidiabetic drugs are more effective to control diabetes mellitus, there are considerable side effects have been reported. Thus, there is an increasing demand for searching new natural products having high antidiabetic activity with lesser side effects. The purposes of the present study were to evaluate different physical parameters and in-vitro and in-vivo antidiabetic potential of the selected combined medicinal plant extracts mixture composed of leaves of Murraya koenigii, cloves of Allium sativum, fruits of Garcinia queasita and seeds of Piper nigrum. The selected plants parts were mixed and ground together and extracted sequentially into the hexane, ethyl acetate and methanol. Solvents were evaporated and they were further dried by freeze-drying to obtain a fine powder of each extract. Various physical parameters such as moisture, total ash, acid insoluble ash and water soluble ash were evaluated using standard test procedures. In-vitro antidiabetic activity of combined plant extracts mixture was screened using enzyme assays such as α-amylase inhibition assay and α-glucosidase inhibition assay. The acute anti-hyperglycaemic activity was performed using oral glucose tolerance test for the streptozotocin induced diabetic Wistar rats to find out in-vivo antidiabetic activity of combined plant extracts mixture and it was assessed through total oral glucose tolerance curve (TAUC) values. The percentage of moisture content, total ash content, acid insoluble ash content and water soluble ash content were ranged of 7.6-17.8, 8.1-11.78, 0.019-0.134 and 6.2-9.2 respectively for the plant extracts and those values were less than standard values except the methanol extract. The hexane and ethyl acetate extracts exhibited highest α-amylase (IC50 = 25.7 ±0.6; 27.1 ±1.2 ppm) and α-glucosidase (IC50 = 22.4 ±0.1; 33.7 ±0.2 ppm) inhibitory activities than methanol extract (IC50 = 360.2 ±0.6; 179.6 ±0.9 ppm) when compared with the acarbose positive control (IC50 = 5.7 ±0.4; 17.1 ±0.6 ppm). The TAUC values for hexane, ethyl acetate, and methanol extracts and glibenclamide (positive control) treated rats were 8.01 ±0.66; 8.05 ±1.07; 8.40±0.50; 5.87 ±0.93 mmol/L.h respectively, whereas in diabetic control rats the TAUC value was 13.22 ±1.07 mmol/L.h. Administration of plant extracts treated rats significantly suppressed (p<0.05) the rise in plasma blood glucose levels compared to control rats but less significant than glibenclamide. The obtained results from in-vivo and in-vitro antidiabetic study showed that the hexane and ethyl acetate extracts of selected combined plant mixture might be considered as a potential source to isolate natural antidiabetic agents and physical parameters of hexane and ethyl acetate extracts will helpful to develop antidiabetic drug with further standardize properties.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, in-vitro antidiabetic assays, medicinal plants, standardization

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116 Application of 3D Apparel CAD for Costume Reproduction

Authors: Zi Y. Kang, Tracy D. Cassidy, Tom Cassidy

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3D apparel CAD is one of the remarkable products in advanced technology which enables intuitive design, visualisation and evaluation of garments through stereoscopic drape simulation. The progressive improvements of 3D apparel CAD have led to the creation of more realistic clothing simulation which is used not only in design development but also in presentation, promotion and communication for fashion as well as other industries such as film, game and social network services. As a result, 3D clothing technology is becoming more ubiquitous in human culture and lives today. This study considers that such phenomenon implies that the technology has reached maturity and it is time to inspect the status of current technology and to explore its potential uses in ways to create cultural values to further move forward. For this reason, this study aims to generate virtual costumes as culturally significant objects using 3D apparel CAD and to assess its capability, applicability and attitudes of the audience towards clothing simulation through comparison with physical counterparts. Since the access to costume collection is often limited due to the conservative issues, the technology may make valuable contribution by democratization of culture and knowledge for museums and its audience. This study is expected to provide foundation knowledge for development of clothing technology and for expanding its boundary of practical uses. To prevent any potential damage, two replicas of the costumes in the 1860s and 1920s at the Museum of London were chosen as samples. Their structural, visual and physical characteristics were measured and collected using patterns, scanned images of fabrics and objective fabric measurements with scale, KES-F (Kawabata Evaluation System of Fabrics) and Titan. Commercial software, DC Suite 5.0 was utilised to create virtual costumes applying collected data and the following outcomes were produced for the evaluation: Images of virtual costumes and video clips showing static and dynamic simulation. Focus groups were arranged with fashion design students and the public for evaluation which exposed the outcomes together with physical samples, fabrics swatches and photographs. The similarities, application and acceptance of virtual costumes were estimated through discussion and a questionnaire. The findings show that the technology has the capability to produce realistic or plausible simulation but expression of some factors such as details and capability of light material requires improvements. While the use of virtual costumes was viewed as more interesting and futuristic replacements to physical objects by the public group, the fashion student group noted more differences in detail and preferred physical garments highlighting the absence of tangibility. However, the advantages and potential of virtual costumes as effective and useful visual references for educational and exhibitory purposes were underlined by both groups. Although 3D apparel CAD has sufficient capacity to assist garment design process, it has limits in identical replication and more study on accurate reproduction of details and drape is needed for its technical improvements. Nevertheless, the virtual costumes in this study demonstrated the possibility of the technology to contribute to cultural and knowledgeable value creation through its applicability and as an interesting way to offer 3D visual information.

Keywords: digital clothing technology, garment simulation, 3D Apparel CAD, virtual costume

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115 The Bidirectional Effect between Parental Burnout and the Child’s Internalized and/or Externalized Behaviors

Authors: Aline Woine, Moïra Mikolajczak, Virginie Dardier, Isabelle Roskam

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Background information: Becoming a parent is said to be the happiest event one can ever experience in one’s life. This popular (and almost absolute) truth–which no reasonable and decent human being would ever dare question on pain of being singled out as a bad parent–contrasts with the nuances that reality offers. Indeed, while many parents do thrive in their parenting role, some others falter and become progressively overwhelmed by their parenting role, ineluctably caught in a spiral of exhaustion. Parental burnout (henceforth PB) sets in when parental demands (stressors) exceed parental resources. While it is now generally acknowledged that PB affects the parent’s behavior in terms of neglect and violence toward their offspring, little is known about the impact that the syndrome might have on the children’s internalized (anxious and depressive symptoms, somatic complaints, etc.) and/or externalized (irritability, violence, aggressiveness, conduct disorder, oppositional disorder, etc.) behaviors. Furthermore, at the time of writing, to our best knowledge, no research has yet tested the reverse effect, namely, that of the child's internalized and/or externalized behaviors on the onset and/or maintenance of parental burnout symptoms. Goals and hypotheses: The present pioneering research proposes to fill an important gap in the existing literature related to PB by investigating the bidirectional effect between PB and the child’s internalized and/or externalized behaviors. Relying on a cross-lagged longitudinal study with three waves of data collection (4 months apart), our study tests a transactional model with bidirectional and recursive relations between observed variables and at the three waves, as well as autoregressive paths and cross-sectional correlations. Methods: As we write this, wave-two data are being collected via Qualtrics, and we expect a final sample of about 600 participants composed of French-speaking (snowball sample) and English-speaking (Prolific sample) parents. Structural equation modeling is employed using Stata version 17. In order to retain as much statistical power as possible, we use all available data and therefore apply the maximum likelihood with a missing value (mlmv) as the method of estimation to compute the parameter estimates. To limit (in so far is possible) the shared method variance bias in the evaluation of the child’s behavior, the study relies on a multi-informant evaluation approach. Expected results: We expect our three-wave longitudinal study to show that PB symptoms (measured at T1) raise the occurrence/intensity of the child’s externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T2 and T3). We further expect the child’s occurrence/intensity of externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T1) to augment the risk for PB (measured at T2 and T3). Conclusion: Should our hypotheses be confirmed, our results will make an important contribution to the understanding of both PB and children’s behavioral issues, thereby opening interesting theoretical and clinical avenues.

Keywords: exhaustion, structural equation modeling, cross-lagged longitudinal study, violence and neglect, child-parent relationship

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114 Microfungi on Sandy Beaches: Potential Threats for People Enjoying Lakeside Recreation

Authors: Tomasz Balabanski, Anna Biedunkiewicz

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Research on basic bacteriological and physicochemical parameters conducted by state institutions (Provincial Sanitary and Epidemiological Station and District Sanitary and Epidemiological Station) are limited to bathing waters under constant sanitary and epidemiological supervision. Unfortunately, no routine or monitoring tests are carried out for the presence of microfungi. This also applies to beach sand used for recreational purposes. The purpose of the planned own research was to determine the diversity of the mycobiota present on supervised and unsupervised sandy beaches, on the shores of lakes, of municipal baths used for recreation. The research material consisted of microfungi isolated from April to October 2019 from sandy beaches of supervised and unsupervised lakes located within the administrative boundaries of the city of Olsztyn (North-Eastern Poland, Europe). Four lakes, out of the fifteen available (Tyrsko, Kortowskie, Skanda, and Ukiel), whose bathing waters are subjected to routine bacteriological tests, were selected for testing. To compare the diversity of the mycobiota composition on the surface and below the sand mixing layer, samples were taken from two depths (10 cm and 50 cm), using a soil auger. Micro-fungi from sand samples were obtained by surface inoculation on an RBC medium from the 1st dilution (1:10). After incubation at 25°C for 96-144 h, the average number of CFU/dm³ was counted. Morphologically differing yeast colonies were passaged into Sabouraud agar slants with gentamicin and incubated again. For detailed laboratory analyses, culture methods (macro- and micro-cultures) and identification methods recommended in diagnostic mycological laboratories were used. The conducted research allowed obtaining 140 yeast isolates. The total average population ranged from 1.37 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ before the bathing season (April 2019), 1.64 × 10⁻³ CFU/dm³ in the season (May-September 2019), and 1.60 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ after the end of the season (October 2019). More microfungi were obtained from the surface layer of sand (100 isolates) than from the deeper layer (40 isolates). Reported microfungi may circulate seasonally between individual elements of the lake ecosystem. From the sand/soil from the catchment area beaches, they can get into bathing waters, stopping periodically on the coastal phyllosphere. The sand of the beaches and the phyllosphere are a kind of filter for the water reservoir. The presence of microfungi with various pathogenicity potential in these places is of major epidemiological importance. Therefore, full monitoring of not only recreational waters but also sandy beaches should be treated as an element of constant control by appropriate supervisory institutions, allowing recreational areas for public use so that the use of these places does not involve the risk of infection. Acknowledgment: 'Development Program of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn', POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17, co-financed by the European Union under the European Social Fund from the Operational Program Knowledge Education Development. Tomasz Bałabański is a recipient of a scholarship from the Programme Interdisciplinary Doctoral Studies in Biology and Biotechnology (POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17), which is funded by the 'European Social Fund'.

Keywords: beach, microfungi, sand, yeasts

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113 Foregrounding Events in Modern Sundanese: The Pragmatics of Particle-to-Active Voice Marking Shift

Authors: Rama Munajat

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Discourse information levels may be viewed from either a background-foreground distinction or a multi-level perspective, and cross-linguistic studies on this area suggest that each information level is marked by a specific linguistic device. In this sense, Sundanese, spoken in Indonesia’s West Javanese Province, further differentiates the background and foreground information into ordinary and significant types. This paper will report an ongoing shift from particle-to-active voice marking in the way Sundanese signals foregrounding events. The shift relates to decades of contact with Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesia’s official language) and linguistic compatibility between the two surface marking strategies. Representative data analyzed include three groups of short stories in both Sundanese and Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian) published in three periods: before 1945, 1965-2006, and 2016-2019. In the first group of Sundanese data, forward-moving events dominantly appear in particle KA (Kecap Anteuran, word-accompanying) constructions, where the KA represents different particles that co-occur with a special group of verbs. The second group, however, shows that the foregrounded events are more frequently described in active-voice forms with a subject-predicate (SP) order. Subsequently, the third offers stronger evidence for the use of the SP structure. As for the Indonesian data, the foregrounding events in the first group occur in verb-initial and passive-voice constructions, while in the second and third, the events more frequently appear in active-voice structures (subject-predicate sequence). The marking shift above suggests a structural influence from Indonesian, stemmed from generational differences among authors of the Sundanese short stories, particularly related to their education and language backgrounds. The first group of short stories – published before 1945 or before Indonesia's independence from Dutch – were written by native speakers of Sundanese who spoke Indonesian as a foreign language and went through the Dutch education system. The second group of authors, on the other hand, represents a generation of Sundanese native speakers who spoke Indonesian as a second language. Finally, the third group consists of authors who are bilingual speakers of both Sundanese and Indonesian. The data suggest that the last two groups of authors completed the Indonesian education system. With these, the use of subject-predicate sequences to denote foregrounding events began to appear more frequently in the second group and then became more dominant in those of the third. The coded data also signify that cohesion, coherence, and pragmatic purposes in Particle KA constructions are intact in their respective active-voice structure counterparts. For instance, the foregrounding events in Particle KA constructions occur in Sentence-initial KA and Pre-verbal KA forms, whereas those in the active-voice are described in Subject-Predicate (SP) and Zero-Subject active-voice patterns. Cross-language data further demonstrate that the Sentence-initial KA and the SP active-voice structures each contain an overt noun phrase (NP) co-referential with one of the entities introduced in a preceding context. Similarly, the pre-verbal KA and Zero-Subject active-voice patterns have a deleted noun phrase unambiguously referable to the only one entity previously mentioned. The presence and absence of an NP inform a pragmatic strategy to place prominence on topic/given and comment/new information, respectively.

Keywords: discourse analysis, foregrounding marking, pragmatics, language contact

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
112 Educational Audit and Curricular Reforms in the Arabian Context

Authors: Irum Naz

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In the Arabian higher education context, linguistic proficiency in the English language is considered crucial for the developmental sustainability, economic growth, and stability of communities and societies. Qatar’s educational reforms package, through the 2030 vision, identifies the acquisition of English at K-12 as an essential survival communication tool for globalization, believing that Qatari students need better preparation to take on the responsibilities of leadership and to participate effectively in the country’s surging economy. The idea of introducing Qatari students to modern curricula benchmarked to high-student-performance curricula in developed countries is one of the components of reformatory design principles of Education for New Era reform project that is mutually consented to and supported by the Office of Shared Services, Communications Office, and Supreme Education Council. In appreciation of the government’s vision, the English Language Centre (ELC) at the Community College of Qatar ran an internal educational audit and conducted evaluative research to understand and appraise the value, impact, and practicality of the existing ELC language development program. This study sought to identify the type of change that could identify and improve the quality of Foundation Program courses and the manners in which second language learners could be assisted to transit smoothly between (ELC) levels. Following the interpretivist paradigm and mixed research method, the data was gathered through a bicyclic research model and a triangular design. The analyses of the data suggested that there was a need for improvement in the ELC program as a whole, and particularly in terms of curriculum, student learning outcomes, and the general learning environment in the department. Key findings suggest that the target program would benefit from significant revisions, which would include narrowing the focus of the courses, providing sets of specific learning objectives, and preventing repetition between levels. Another promising finding was about the assessment tools and process. The data suggested that a set of standardized assessments that more closely suited the programs of study should be devised. It was also recommended that students undergo a more comprehensive placement process to ensure that they begin the program at an appropriate level and get the maximum benefit from their learning experience. Although this ties into the idea of curriculum revamp, it was expected that students could leave the ELC having had exposure to courses in English for specific purposes. The idea of a more reliable exit assessment for students was raised frequently so ELC could regulate itself and ensure optimum learning outcomes. Another important recommendation was the provision of a Student Learning Center for students that would help them to receive personalized tuition, differentiated instruction, and self-driven and self-evaluated learning experience. In addition, an extra study level was recommended to be added to the program to accommodate the different levels of English language proficiency represented among ELC students. The evidence collected in the course of conducting the study suggests that significant change is needed in the structure of the ELC program, specifically about curriculum, the program learning outcomes, and the learning environment in general.

Keywords: educational audit, ESL, optimum learning outcomes, Qatar’s educational reforms, self-driven and self-evaluated learning experience, Student Learning Center

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111 Measurement and Modelling of HIV Epidemic among High Risk Groups and Migrants in Two Districts of Maharashtra, India: An Application of Forecasting Software-Spectrum

Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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110 Mineralized Nanoparticles as a Contrast Agent for Ultrasound and Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Authors: Jae Won Lee, Kyung Hyun Min, Hong Jae Lee, Sang Cheon Lee

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To date, imaging techniques have attracted much attention in medicine because the detection of diseases at an early stage provides greater opportunities for successful treatment. Consequently, over the past few decades, diverse imaging modalities including magnetic resonance (MR), positron emission tomography, computed tomography, and ultrasound (US) have been developed and applied widely in the field of clinical diagnosis. However, each of the above-mentioned imaging modalities possesses unique strengths and intrinsic weaknesses, which limit their abilities to provide accurate information. Therefore, multimodal imaging systems may be a solution that can provide improved diagnostic performance. Among the current medical imaging modalities, US is a widely available real-time imaging modality. It has many advantages including safety, low cost and easy access for patients. However, its low spatial resolution precludes accurate discrimination of diseased region such as cancer sites. In contrast, MR has no tissue-penetrating limit and can provide images possessing exquisite soft tissue contrast and high spatial resolution. However, it cannot offer real-time images and needs a comparatively long imaging time. The characteristics of these imaging modalities may be considered complementary, and the modalities have been frequently combined for the clinical diagnostic process. Biominerals such as calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and calcium phosphate (CaP) exhibit pH-dependent dissolution behavior. They demonstrate pH-controlled drug release due to the dissolution of minerals in acidic pH conditions. In particular, the application of this mineralization technique to a US contrast agent has been reported recently. The CaCO3 mineral reacts with acids and decomposes to generate calcium dioxide (CO2) gas in an acidic environment. These gas-generating mineralized nanoparticles generated CO2 bubbles in the acidic environment of the tumor, thereby allowing for strong echogenic US imaging of tumor tissues. On the basis of this previous work, it was hypothesized that the loading of MR contrast agents into the CaCO3 mineralized nanoparticles may be a novel strategy in designing a contrast agent for dual imaging. Herein, CaCO3 mineralized nanoparticles that were capable of generating CO2 bubbles to trigger the release of entrapped MR contrast agents in response to tumoral acidic pH were developed for the purposes of US and MR dual-modality imaging of tumors. Gd2O3 nanoparticles were selected as an MR contrast agent. A key strategy employed in this study was to prepare Gd2O3 nanoparticle-loaded mineralized nanoparticles (Gd2O3-MNPs) using block copolymer-templated CaCO3 mineralization in the presence of calcium cations (Ca2+), carbonate anions (CO32-) and positively charged Gd2O3 nanoparticles. The CaCO3 core was considered suitable because it may effectively shield Gd2O3 nanoparticles from water molecules in the blood (pH 7.4) before decomposing to generate CO2 gas, triggering the release of Gd2O3 nanoparticles in tumor tissues (pH 6.4~7.4). The kinetics of CaCO3 dissolution and CO2 generation from the Gd2O3-MNPs were examined as a function of pH and pH-dependent in vitro magnetic relaxation; additionally, the echogenic properties were estimated to demonstrate the potential of the particles for the tumor-specific US and MR imaging.

Keywords: calcium carbonate, mineralization, ultrasound imaging, magnetic resonance imaging

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