Search results for: Bayesian hierarchical models

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

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The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology

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Authors: Sahar Jami, Iman Valizadeh

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Today banks not only should seek for new customers but also should consider previous maintenance and retention and establish a stable relationship with them. In this term, relationship-manner marketing seeks to make, maintain, and promote the relationship between customers and other stakeholders in benefits to fulfill all involved parties. This fact is possible just by interactive transaction and promises fulfillment. According to the importance of relationship-manner marketing in banks, making context to make relationship-manner marketing has high importance. Therefore, the present study aims at exploring intention condition to relationship-manner marketing in Iran Province Iran Limited bank, and also prioritizing its variables using hierarchical analysis (AHP). There is questionnaire designed in this research to paired comparison of relationship-manner marketing elements. After distributing this questionnaire among statistical society members who are 20 of Iran Limited bank experts, data analysis has been done by Expert Choice software.

Keywords: relationship marketing, relationship market orientation, Saderat Bank of Iran, hierarchical analysis

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Authors: Zouhour Neji Ben Salem

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Microscopic evacuation focuses on the evacuee behavior and way of search of safety place in an egress situation. In recent years, several models handled microscopic evacuation problem. Among them, we have proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as an alternative to mathematical models that can deal with such problem. In this paper, we present two ANN models: SOM map and Hopfield Network used to predict the evacuee behavior in a disaster situation. These models are tested in a real case, the second floor of Tunisian children hospital evacuation in case of fire. The two models are studied and compared in order to evaluate their performance.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, self-organization map, hopfield network, microscopic evacuation, fire building evacuation

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Authors: Osariyekemwen, Daniel Nosakhare

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Some ceramic wastes, such as discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) in Auchi Polytechnic, Edo State, constitute environmental hazards. This study, therefore, bridges the forgoing gaps by undertaking the use of these discarded (POP) moulds to produced ceramic models for making casting moulds for mass production. This is in line with the possibility of using this medium to properly manage the discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) that littered our immediate environment. Presently these are major wastes disposal in the department. Hence, the study has been made to fabricate sanitary miniature models and contract fuse models, respectively. Findings arising from this study show that discarded (condemn) Plaster of Paris (POP) can be carved when to set it neither shrink nor expand; hence warping is quite unusual. Above all, it also gives good finishing with little deterioration with time when compared to clay models.

Keywords: plaster of Paris, condemn, moulds, models, production

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Authors: Tiberiu Socaciu, Tudor Colomeischi, Eugenia Iancu

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Business failure affects in various proportions shareholders, managers, lenders (banks), suppliers, customers, the financial community, government and society as a whole. In the era in which we have telecommunications networks, exists an interdependence of markets, the effect of a failure of a company is relatively instant. To effectively manage risk exposure is thus require sophisticated support systems, supported by analytical tools to measure, monitor, manage and control operational risks that may arise. As we know, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that managers do not want no matter what stage of life is the company they direct / lead. In the analysis made by us, by the nature of economic models that are reviewed (Altman, Conan-Holder etc.), estimating the risk of bankruptcy of a company corresponds to some extent with its own business cycle tracing of the company. Various models for predicting bankruptcy take into account direct / indirect aspects such as market position, company growth trend, competition structure, characteristics and customer retention, organization and distribution, location etc. From the perspective of our research we will now review the economic models known in theory and practice for estimating the risk of bankruptcy; such models are based on indicators drawn from major accounting firms.

Keywords: Anglo-Saxon models, continental models, national models, statistical models

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

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Authors: Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

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This paper presents a Hierarchical Piecewise Linear Approximation (HPLA) for the representation of time series data in which the time series is treated as a curve in the time-amplitude image space. The curve is partitioned into segments by choosing perceptually important points as break points. Each segment between adjacent break points is recursively partitioned into two segments at the best point or midpoint until the error between the approximating line and the original curve becomes less than a pre-specified threshold. The HPLA representation achieves dimensionality reduction while preserving prominent local features and general shape of time series. The representation permits course-fine processing at different levels of details, allows flexible definition of similarity based on mathematical measures or general time series shape, and supports time series data mining operations including query by content, clustering and classification based on whole or subsequence similarity.

Keywords: data mining, dimensionality reduction, piecewise linear representation, time series representation

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Authors: Svetlana Pushkar, Oleg Verbitsky

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An energy-conscious design for a classroom in a hot-humid climate is reanalyzed. The hypothesis of this study is that use of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation in building operation energy consumption will lead to re-analysis of the energy-conscious design. Therefore, the objective of this study is to reanalyze the energy-conscious design by evaluating the environmental impact of operational energy with PV electrical generation. Using the hierarchical design structure of Eco-indicator 99, the alternatives for energy-conscious variables are statistically evaluated by applying a two-stage nested (hierarchical) ANOVA. The recommendations for the preferred solutions for application of glazing types, wall insulation, roof insulation, window size, roof mass, and window shading design alternatives were changed (for example, glazing type recommendations were changed from low-emissivity glazing, green, and double- glazed windows to low-emissivity glazing only), whereas the applications for the lighting control system and infiltration are not changed. Such analysis of operational energy can be defined as environment-conscious analysis.

Keywords: ANOVA, Eco-Indicator 99, energy-conscious design, hot–humid climate, photovoltaic

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

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Authors: Elvira Mustikawati P.H., Iis Dewi Ratih, Dita Amelia

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Bojonegoro has proclaimed a policy of zero malnutrition. Therefore, as an effort to solve the cases of malnutrition children in Bojonegoro, this study used the approach geographically Mixed Weighted Regression (MGWR) to determine the factors that influence the percentage of malnourished children under five in which factors can be divided into locally influential factor in each district and global factors that influence throughout the district. Based on the test of goodness of fit models, R2 and AIC values in GWR models are better than MGWR models. R2 and AIC values in MGWR models are 84.37% and 14.28, while the GWR models respectively are 91.04% and -62.04. Based on the analysis with GWR models, District Sekar, Bubulan, Gondang, and Dander is a district with three predictor variables (percentage of vitamin A, the percentage of births assisted health personnel, and the percentage of clean water) that significantly influence the percentage of malnourished children under five.

Keywords: GWR, MGWR, R2, AIC

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Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz, María C. García-Barranco, Jesús Hernández-Rubio

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The situation in which firms engage in simultaneous cooperation and competition with each other is a phenomenon known as co-opetition. This scenario has received increasing attention in business economics and management analyses. In the domain of supply chain networks and for small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, these strategies are of greater relevance given the complex environment of globalization and competition in open markets. These firms face greater challenges regarding technology and access to specific resources due to their limited capabilities and limited market presence. Consequently, alliances and collaborations with both buyers and suppliers prove to be key elements in overcoming these constraints. However, rivalry and competition are also regarded as major factors in successful internationalization processes, as they are drivers for firms to attain a greater degree of specialization and to improve efficiency, for example enabling them to allocate scarce resources optimally and providing incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship. The present work aims to contribute to the literature on SMEs’ internationalization strategies. The sample is constituted by a panel data of marketing firms from the Andalusian food sector and a multivariate regression analysis is developed, measuring variables of co-opetition and international activity. The hierarchical regression equations method has been followed, thus resulting in three estimated models: the first one excluding the variables indicative of channel type, while the latter two include the international retailer chain and wholesaler variable. The findings show that the combination of several factors leads to a complex scenario of inter-organizational relationships of cooperation and competition. In supply chain management analyses, these relationships tend to be classified as either buyer-supplier (vertical level) or supplier-supplier relationships (horizontal level). Several buyers and suppliers tend to participate in supply chain networks, and in which the form of governance (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) influences cooperation and competition strategies. For instance, due to their market power and/or their closeness to the end consumer, some buyers (e.g. large retailers in food markets) can exert an influence on the selection and interaction of several of their intermediate suppliers, thus endowing certain networks in the supply chain with greater stability. This hierarchical influence may in turn allow these suppliers to develop their capabilities (e.g. specialization) to a greater extent. On the other hand, for those suppliers that are outside these networks, this environment of hierarchy, characterized by a “hub firm” or “channel master”, may provide an incentive for developing their co-opetition relationships. These results prove that the analyzed firms have experienced considerable growth in sales to new foreign markets, mainly in Europe, dealing with large retail chains and wholesalers as main buyers. This supply industry is predominantly made up of numerous SMEs, which has implied a certain disadvantage when dealing with the buyers, as negotiations have traditionally been held on an individual basis and in the face of high competition among suppliers. Over recent years, however, cooperation among these marketing firms has become more common, for example regarding R&D, promotion, scheduling of production and sales.

Keywords: co-petition networks, international supply chain, maketing agrifood firms, SMEs strategies

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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Many quality models have been used to measure e-government portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: e-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126

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Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez

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In this paper, we briefly introduce the concept of Poisson attacks in the case of defense/attack strategies where attacks are assumed to be continuous. We suggest a game model in which the attacker will combine both criteria of a sufficient confidence level of a successful attack and a reasonably small size of the estimation error in order to launch an attack. Here, estimation error arises from assessing the system failure upon attack using aggregate data at the system level. The corresponding error is referred to as aggregation error. On the other hand, the defender will attempt to deter attack by making one or both criteria inapplicable. The defender will build his/her strategy by both strengthening the targeted system and increasing the size of error. We will formulate the defender problem based on appropriate optimization models. The attacker will opt for a Bayesian updating in assessing the impact on the improvement made by the defender. Then, the attacker will evaluate the feasibility of the attack before making the decision of whether or not to launch it. We will provide illustrations to better explain the process.

Keywords: attacker, defender, game theory, information

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Authors: Ayman Aboelkassem, Mahmoud Ali

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Introduction: The models of soul houses have appeared in the prehistory, old kingdom and middle kingdom period. These soul houses represented the imagination of the deceased about his house in the afterlife, some of these soul houses were two floors and the study will examine five models of soul houses which were discovered near Saqqara site by an Egyptian mission. These models had been transferred to The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be ready to display at the new museum. We focus on models of soul houses (GEM Numbers, 1276, 1280, 1281, 1282, 8711) these models of soul houses were related to the old kingdom period. These models were all made of pottery, the five models have an oval shape and were decorated with relief. Methodology: The study will focus on the development of soul houses during the different periods in ancient Egypt, the function of soul houses, the kind of offerings which were put in it and the symbolism of the offerings colors in ancient Egyptian believe. Conclusion: This study is useful for the heritage and ancient civilizations especially when we talk about opening new museums like The Grand Egyptian Museum which will display a new collection of soul houses. The study of soul houses and The kinds of offerings which put in it reflect the economic situation in the Egyptian society and kinds of oils which were famous in ancient Egypt.

Keywords: archaeology study, Grand Egyptian Museum, relief, soul houses

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Authors: Fayyaz Rasool, Naureen Aziz Qureshi, Shakeela Parveen

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Labeo rohita populations from five geographical locations from the hatchery and riverine system of Punjab-Pakistan were studied for the clustering on the basis of similarities and differences based on morphometric parameters within the species. Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) was done by using Pearson Correlation Coefficient and Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA) as Agglomeration method by XLSTAT 2012 version 1.02. A dendrogram with the data on the morphometrics of the representative samples of each site divided the populations of Labeo rohita in to five major clusters or classes. The variance decomposition for the optimal classification values remained as 19.24% for within class variation, while 80.76% for the between class differences. The representative central objects of the each class, the distances between the class centroids and also the distance between the central objects of the classes were generated by the analysis. A measurable distinction between the classes of the populations of the Labeo rohita was indicated in this study which determined the impacts of changing environment and other possible factors influencing the variation level among the populations of the same species.

Keywords: AHC, Labeo rohita, hatchery, riverine, morphometric

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Authors: Lidija Jevrić, Denis Kučević, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Milica Karadžić

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In the present study, the Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was applied in order to determine the differences between the milk samples originating from a conventional dairy farm (CF) and an organic dairy farm (OF) in AP Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia. The clustering was based on the basis of the average values of saturated fatty acids (SFA) content and unsaturated fatty acids (UFA) content obtained for every season. Therefore, the HCA included the annual SFA and UFA content values. The clustering procedure was carried out on the basis of Euclidean distances and Single linkage algorithm. The obtained dendrograms indicated that the clustering of UFA in OF was much more uniform compared to clustering of UFA in CF. In OF, spring stands out from the other months of the year. The same case can be noticed for CF, where winter is separated from the other months. The results could be expected because the composition of fatty acids content is greatly influenced by the season and nutrition of dairy cows during the year.

Keywords: chemometrics, clustering, food engineering, milk quality

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Authors: Wanqing You, Kai Qian, Ying Qian

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The concepts of Cloud Computing provide users with infrastructure, platform and software as service, which make those services more accessible for people via Internet. To better analysis the performance of Cloud Computing provisioning policies as well as resources allocation strategies, a toolkit named CloudSim proposed. With CloudSim, the Cloud Computing environment can be easily constructed by modelling and simulating cloud computing components, such as datacenter, host, and virtual machine. A good scheduling strategy is the key to achieve the load balancing among different machines as well as to improve the utilization of basic resources. Recently, the existing scheduling algorithms may work well in some presumptive cases in a single machine; however they are unable to make the best decision for the unforeseen future. In real world scenario, there would be numbers of tasks as well as several virtual machines working in parallel. Based on the concepts of multi-queue, this paper presents a new scheduling algorithm to schedule tasks with CloudSim by taking into account several parameters, the machines’ capacity, the priority of tasks and the history log.

Keywords: hierarchical queue, load balancing, CloudSim, information technology

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Authors: Elena Valeryevna Pozhidaeva

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This linguistic case study is based on an interaction between the social position and foodways. In every culture there is a social hierarchical system in which there can be means to express and to identify the social status of a person. Food serves as a class indicator. The British being a verbal nation use the words as a preferred medium for signalling and recognising the social status. The linguistic analysis reflects a symbolic hierarchy determined by social groups in the UK. The linguistic class indicators of a British hierarchical system are detectable directly – in speech acts. They are articulated in every aspect of a national identity’s life from preferences of the food and the choice to call it to the names of the meals. The linguistic class indicators can as well be detected indirectly – through symbolic meaning or via the choice of the mealtime, its class (e.g the classes of tea or marmalade), the place to buy food (the class of the supermarket) and consume it (the places for eating out and the frequency of such practices). Under analysis of this study are not only food items and their names but also such categories as cutlery as a class indicator and the act of eating together as a practice of social significance and a class indicator. Current social changes and economic developments are considered and their influence on the class indicators appearance and transformation.

Keywords: linguistic, class, social indicator, English, food class

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Authors: Yu-Kuei Hsu, Ying-Chu Chen, Yan-Gu Lin

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The hierarchical Cu2S nano structural film is successfully fabricated via an electroplated ZnO nanorod array as a template and subsequently chemical solution process for the growth of Cu2S in the application of surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) detection. The as-grown Cu2S nano structures were thermally treated at temperature of 150-300 oC under nitrogen atmosphere to improve the crystal quality and unexpectedly induce the Cu nano particles on surface of Cu2S. The structure and composition of thermally treated Cu2S nano structures were carefully analyzed by SEM, XRD, XPS, and XAS. Using 4-aminothiophenol (4-ATP) as probing molecules, the SERS experiments showed that the thermally treated Cu2S nano structures exhibit excellent detecting performance, which could be used as active and cost-effective SERS substrate for ultra sensitive detecting. Additionally, this novel hierarchical SERS substrates show good reproducibility and a linear dependence between analyte concentrations and intensities, revealing the advantage of this method for easily scale-up production.

Keywords: cuprous sulfide, copper, nanostructures, surface-enhanced raman scattering

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Authors: Po-Jen Chen, Jian-Jiun Ding, Hung-Wei Hsu, Chien-Yao Wang, Jia-Ching Wang

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A more accurate scene classification algorithm using label relations and the hierarchy neural network was developed in this work. In many classification algorithms, it is assumed that the labels are mutually exclusive. This assumption is true in some specific problems, however, for scene classification, the assumption is not reasonable. Because there are a variety of objects with a photo image, it is more practical to assign multiple labels for an image. In this paper, two label relations, which are exclusive relation and hierarchical relation, were adopted in the classification process to achieve more accurate multiple label classification results. Moreover, the hierarchy neural network (hierarchy NN) is applied to classify the image and the directed acyclic graph structure is used for predicting a more reasonable result which obey exclusive and hierarchical relations. Simulations show that, with these techniques, a much more accurate scene classification result can be achieved.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, label relation, hierarchy neural network, scene classification

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Authors: I. Behroyan, P. Ganesan, S. He, S. Sivasankaran

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This study compares the predictions of five types of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, including two single-phase models (i.e. Newtonian and non-Newtonian) and three two-phase models (Eulerian-Eulerian, mixture and Eulerian-Lagrangian), to investigate turbulent forced convection of Cu-water nanofluid in a tube with a constant heat flux on the tube wall. The Reynolds (Re) number of the flow is between 10,000 and 25,000, while the volume fraction of Cu particles used is in the range of 0 to 2%. The commercial CFD package of ANSYS-Fluent is used. The results from the CFD models are compared with results from experimental investigations from literature. According to the results of this study, non-Newtonian single-phase model, in general, does not show a good agreement with Xuan and Li correlation in prediction of Nu number. Eulerian-Eulerian model gives inaccurate results expect for φ=0.5%. Mixture model gives a maximum error of 15%. Newtonian single-phase model and Eulerian-Lagrangian model, in overall, are the recommended models. This work can be used as a reference for selecting an appreciate model for future investigation. The study also gives a proper insight about the important factors such as Brownian motion, fluid behavior parameters and effective nanoparticle conductivity which should be considered or changed by the each model.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, single-phase models, two-phase models

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Authors: Megha Gupta, Nupur Prakash

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Identification of plant diseases has been performed using machine learning and deep learning models on the datasets containing images of healthy and diseased plant leaves. The current study carries out an evaluation of some of the deep learning models based on convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures for identification of plant diseases. For this purpose, the publicly available New Plant Diseases Dataset, an augmented version of PlantVillage dataset, available on Kaggle platform, containing 87,900 images has been used. The dataset contained images of 26 diseases of 14 different plants and images of 12 healthy plants. The CNN models selected for the study presented in this paper are AlexNet, ZFNet, VGGNet (four models), GoogLeNet, and ResNet (three models). The selected models are trained using PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, on Google Colaboratory. A comparative study has been carried out to analyze the high degree of accuracy achieved using these models. The highest test accuracy and F1-score of 99.59% and 0.996, respectively, were achieved by using GoogLeNet with Mini-batch momentum based gradient descent learning algorithm.

Keywords: comparative analysis, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, plant disease identification

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Authors: A. Feliczak Guzik, I. Nowak

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Zeolites, classified as microporous materials, are a large group of crystalline aluminosilicate materials commonly used in the chemical industry. These materials are characterized by large specific surface area, high adsorption capacity, hydrothermal and thermal stability. However, the micropores present in them impose strong mass transfer limitations, resulting in low catalytic performance. Consequently, mesoporous (hierarchical) zeolites have attracted considerable attention from researchers. These materials possess additional porosity in the mesopore size region (2-50 nm according to IUPAC). Mesoporous zeolites, based on commercial MFI-type zeolites modified with silver, were synthesized as follows: 0.5 g of zeolite was dispersed in a mixture containing CTABr (template), water, ethanol, and ammonia under ultrasound for 30 min at 65°C. The silicon source, which was tetraethyl orthosilicate, was then added and stirred for 4 h. After this time, silver(I) nitrate was added. In a further step, the whole mixture was filtered and washed with water: ethanol mixture. The template was removed by calcination at 550°C for 5h. All the materials obtained were characterized by the following techniques: X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), nitrogen adsorption/desorption isotherms, FTIR spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction and low-temperature nitrogen adsorption/desorption isotherms revealed additional secondary porosity. Moreover, the structure of the commercial zeolite was preserved during most of the material syntheses. The aforementioned materials were used in the epoxidation reaction of cyclohexene using conventional heating and microwave radiation heating. The composition of the reaction mixture was analyzed every 1 h by gas chromatography. As a result, about 60% conversion of cyclohexene and high selectivity to the desired reaction products i.e., 1,2-epoxy cyclohexane and 1,2-cyclohexane diol, were obtained.

Keywords: catalytic application, characterization, epoxidation, hierarchical zeolites, synthesis

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Authors: Graham Hancox, Saydia Razak, Sue Hignett, Jo Barnes, Jyri Silmari, Florian Kading

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In the event of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) incident rapidly gaining, situational awareness is of paramount importance and advanced technologies have an important role to play in improving detection, identification, monitoring (DIM) and patient tracking. Understanding how these advanced technologies can fit into current response systems is essential to ensure they are optimally designed, usable and meet end-users’ needs. For this reason, Human Factors (Ergonomics) methods have been used within an EU Horizon 2020 project (TOXI-Triage) to firstly describe (map) the hierarchical structure in a CBRN response with adapted Accident Map (AcciMap) methodology. Secondly, Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA) has been used to describe and review the sequence of steps (sub-tasks) in a CBRN scenario response as a task system. HTA methodology was then used to map one advanced technology, ‘Tag and Trace’, which tags an element (people, sample and equipment) with a Near Field Communication (NFC) chip in the Hot Zone to allow tracing of (monitoring), for example casualty progress through the response. This HTA mapping of the Tag and Trace system showed how the provider envisaged the technology being used, allowing for review and fit with the current CBRN response systems. These methodologies have been found to be very effective in promoting and supporting a dialogue between end-users and technology providers. The Human Factors methods have given clear diagrammatic (visual) representations of how providers see their technology being used and how end users would actually use it in the field; allowing for a more user centered approach to the design process. For CBRN events usability is critical as sub-optimum design of technology could add to a responders’ workload in what is already a chaotic, ambiguous and safety critical environment.

Keywords: AcciMap, CBRN, ergonomics, hierarchical task analysis, human factors

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Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

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In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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Authors: Yalong Jiang, Zheru Chi

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In this paper, we study the factors which determine the capacity of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model and propose the ways to evaluate and adjust the capacity of a CNN model for best matching to a specific pattern recognition task. Firstly, a scheme is proposed to adjust the number of independent functional units within a CNN model to make it be better fitted to a task. Secondly, the number of independent functional units in the capsule network is adjusted to fit it to the training dataset. Thirdly, a method based on Bayesian GAN is proposed to enrich the variances in the current dataset to increase its complexity. Experimental results on the PASCAL VOC 2010 Person Part dataset and the MNIST dataset show that, in both conventional CNN models and capsule networks, the number of independent functional units is an important factor that determines the capacity of a network model. By adjusting the number of functional units, the capacity of a model can better match the complexity of a dataset.

Keywords: CNN, convolutional neural network, capsule network, capacity optimization, character recognition, data augmentation, semantic segmentation

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Authors: Svetlana Pushkar, Oleg Verbitsky

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The goal of the present study is to evaluate environmental damage from four wall technologies under the following conditions: four climate zones in Israel, two building (conventional vs. low-energy) types, and two types of fuel source [natural gas vs. photovoltaic (PV)]. The hierarchical ReCiPe method with a two-stage nested (hierarchical) ANOVA test is applied. It was revealed that in a hot climate in Israel in a conventional building fueled by natural gas, OE is dominant (90 %) over the P&C stage (10 %); in a mild climate in Israel in a low-energy building with PV, the P&C stage is dominant (85 %) over the OE stage (15 %). It is concluded that if PV is used in the building sector in Israel, (i) the P&C stage becomes a significant factor that influences the environment, (ii) autoclaved aerated block is the best external wall technology, and (iii) a two-stage nested mixed ANOVA can be used to evaluate environmental damage via ReCiPe when wall technologies are compared.

Keywords: life cycle assessment (LCA), photovoltaic, ReCiPe method, residential buildings

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Authors: Alam Ali, Ashok Kumar Pathak

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Path analysis is a statistical technique used to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of variables in path models. One or more structural regression equations are used to estimate a series of parameters in path models to find the better fit of data. However, sometimes the assumptions of classical regression models, such as ordinary least squares (OLS), are violated by the nature of the data, resulting in insignificant direct and indirect effects of exogenous variables. This article aims to explore the effectiveness of a copula-based regression approach as an alternative to classical regression, specifically when variables are linked through an elliptical copula.

Keywords: path analysis, copula-based regression models, direct and indirect effects, k-fold cross validation technique

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Authors: Sekkal Nawel

Abstract:

The Web of Things (WoT), integration of smart technologies from the Internet or network to Web architecture or application, is becoming more complex, larger, and dynamic. The WoT is associated with various elements such as sensors, devices, networks, protocols, data, functionalities, and architectures to perform services for stakeholders. These services operate in the context of the interaction of stakeholders and the WoT elements. Such context is becoming a key information source from which data are of various nature and uncertain, thus leading to complex situations. In this paper, we take interest in the development of intelligent Web services. The key ingredients of this “intelligent” notion are the context diversity, the necessity of a semantic representation to manage complex situations and the capacity to reason with uncertain data. In this perspective, we introduce a multi-layered architecture based on a generic intelligent Web service model dealing with various contexts, which proactively predict future situations and reactively respond to real-time situations in order to support decision-making. For semantic context data representation, we use PR-OWL, which is a probabilistic ontology based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks (MEBN). PR-OWL is flexible enough to represent complex, dynamic, and uncertain contexts, the key requirements of the development for the intelligent Web services. A case study was carried out using the proposed architecture for intelligent plant watering to show the role of proactive and reactive contextual reasoning in terms of WoT.

Keywords: smart web service, the web of things, context reasoning, proactive, reactive, multi-entity bayesian networks, PR-OWL

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Authors: Hadjer Sadoune, Liza Lamini, Scherazade Krim, Amel Djouadi, Rachida Rihani

Abstract:

Deep neural networks are highly regarded for their accuracy in predicting intricate fermentation processes. Their ability to learn from a large amount of datasets through artificial intelligence makes them particularly effective models. The primary obstacle in improving the performance of these models is to carefully choose the suitable hyperparameters, including the neural network architecture (number of hidden layers and hidden units), activation function, optimizer, learning rate, and other relevant factors. This study predicts biogas production from real wastewater treatment plant data using a sophisticated approach: hybrid Bayesian optimization with a tree-structured Parzen estimator (BO-TPE) for an optimised deep neural network (DNN) model. The plant utilizes an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) digester that treats industrial wastewater from soft drinks and breweries. The digester has a working volume of 1574 m3 and a total volume of 1914 m3. Its internal diameter and height were 19 and 7.14 m, respectively. The data preprocessing was conducted with meticulous attention to preserving data quality while avoiding data reduction. Three normalization techniques were applied to the pre-processed data (MinMaxScaler, RobustScaler and StandardScaler) and compared with the Non-Normalized data. The RobustScaler approach has strong predictive ability for estimating the volume of biogas produced. The highest predicted biogas volume was 2236.105 Nm³/d, with coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.712, 164.610, and 223.429, respectively.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas production, deep neural network, hybrid bo-tpe, hyperparameters tuning

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