Search results for: transportation modelling

Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn, Li-Chia Tai

Abstract:

With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, low-power built-in sensors on Internet of Things devices, and communication technologies, location-aware services have become increasingly popular and have permeated every aspect of people’s lives. Global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) are the default method of providing continuous positioning services for ground and aerial vehicles, as well as consumer devices (smartphones, watches, notepads, etc.). However, the environment affects satellite positioning systems, particularly indoors, in dense urban and suburban cities enclosed by skyscrapers, or when deep shadows obscure satellite signals. This is because (1) indoor environments are more complicated due to the presence of many objects surrounding them; (2) reflection within the building is highly dependent on the surrounding environment, including the positions of objects and human activity; and (3) satellite signals cannot be reached in an indoor environment, and GNSS doesn't have enough power to penetrate building walls. GPS is also highly power-hungry, which poses a severe challenge for battery-powered IoT devices. Due to these challenges, IoT applications are limited. Consequently, precise, seamless, and ubiquitous Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) systems are crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarms, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 0.39 m, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 0.82 m. According to numerical results, SRCLoc improves positioning performance and reduces radio map construction costs significantly compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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Authors: Desere Kokt

Abstract:

Hospitality establishments worldwide are bearing the brunt of the effects of Covid-19. As the hospitality industry is looking to recover, emphasis is placed on rejuvenating the industry. This is especially pertinent for economic development in areas of high unemployment, such as the Free State province of South Africa. The province is not a main tourist area and thus depends on the influx of tourists. The province has great scenic beauty with many accommodation establishments that provide job opportunities to the local population. The two main economic hubs of the Free State province namely Bloemfontein and Clarens, were the focus of the investigation. The emphasis was on graded accommodation establishments as they must adhere to the quality principles of the Tourism Grading Council of South Africa (TGCSA) to obtain star grading. The hospitality industry is known for being labour intensive, and employees need to be available to cater for the needs of paying customers. This is referred to as ‘emotional labour’ and implies that employees need to manage their feelings and emotions as part of performing their jobs. The focus of this study was thus on psychological factors related to working in the hospitality industry – specifically psychological contract and psychological capital and its impact on the commitment of employees in graded accommodation establishments. Employee commitment can be explained as a psychological state that binds the individual to the organisation and involves a set of psychological relationships that include affective (emotions), normative (perceived obligation) and continuance (staying with the organisation) dimensions. Psychological contract refers to the reciprocal beliefs and expectations between the employer and the employee and consists of transactional and rational contracts. Transactional contracts are associated with the economic exchange, and contractional issues related to the employment contract and rational contracts relate to the social exchange between the employee and the organisation. Psychological capital refers to an individual’s positive psychology state of development that is characterised by self-efficiency (having confidence in doing one’s job), optimism (being positive and persevering towards achieving one’s goals), hope (expectations for goals to succeed) and resilience (bouncing back to attain success when beset by problems and adversity). The study employed a quantitative research approach, and a structured questionnaire was used to gather data from respondents. The study was conducted during the Covid-19 pandemic, which hampered the data gathering efforts of the researchers. Many accommodation establishments were either closed or temporarily closed, which meant that data gathering was an intensive and laborious process. The main researcher travelled to the various establishments to collect the data. Nine hospitality establishments participated in the study, and around 150 employees were targeted for data collection. Ninety-two (92) questionnaires were completed, which represents a response rate of 61%. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was applied to examine the relationship between the variables.

Keywords: employee commitment, hospitality industry, psychological contract, psychological capital

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Authors: Alexander Norbach

Abstract:

The script in this paper describes the use of advanced simulation environment using electronic systems (Microcontroller, Operational Amplifiers, and FPGA). The simulation may be used for all dynamic systems with the diffusion and the ionisation behaviour also. By additionally required observer structure, the system works with parallel real-time simulation based on diffusion model and the state-space representation for other dynamics. The proposed deposited model may be used for electrodynamic effects, including ionising effects and eddy current distribution also. With the script and proposed method, it is possible to calculate the spatial distribution of the electromagnetic fields in real-time. For further purpose, the spatial temperature distribution may be used also. With upon system, the uncertainties, unknown initial states and disturbances may be determined. This provides the estimation of the more precise system states for the required system, and additionally, the estimation of the ionising disturbances that occur due to radiation effects. The results have shown that a system can be also developed and adopted specifically for space systems with the real-time calculation of the radiation effects only. Electronic systems can take damage caused by impacts with charged particle flux in space or radiation environment. In order to be able to react to these processes, it must be calculated within a shorter time that ionising radiation and dose is present. All available sensors shall be used to observe the spatial distributions. By measured value of size and known location of the sensors, the entire distribution can be calculated retroactively or more accurately. With the formation, the type of ionisation and the direct effect to the systems and thus possible prevent processes can be activated up to the shutdown. The results show possibilities to perform more qualitative and faster simulations independent of kind of systems space-systems and radiation environment also. The paper gives additionally an overview of the diffusion effects and their mechanisms. For the modelling and derivation of equations, the extended current equation is used. The size K represents the proposed charge density drifting vector. The extended diffusion equation was derived and shows the quantising character and has similar law like the Klein-Gordon equation. These kinds of PDE's (Partial Differential Equations) are analytically solvable by giving initial distribution conditions (Cauchy problem) and boundary conditions (Dirichlet boundary condition). For a simpler structure, a transfer function for B- and E- fields was analytically calculated. With known discretised responses g₁(k·Ts) and g₂(k·Ts), the electric current or voltage may be calculated using a convolution; g₁ is the direct function and g₂ is a recursive function. The analytical results are good enough for calculation of fields with diffusion effects. Within the scope of this work, a proposed model of the consideration of the electromagnetic diffusion effects of arbitrary current 'waveforms' has been developed. The advantage of the proposed calculation of diffusion is the real-time capability, which is not really possible with the FEM programs available today. It makes sense in the further course of research to use these methods and to investigate them thoroughly.

Keywords: advanced observer, electrodynamics, systems, diffusion, partial differential equations, solver

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: A.H.Y. Lai, C. Teyra

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In Taiwan, there are 16 official indigenous groups, accounting for 2.3% of the total population. Like other indigenous populations worldwide, indigenous peoples in Taiwan have poorer mental health because of their history of oppression and colonisation. Amid the negative narratives, the ethnic identity of cultural minorities is their unique psychological and cultural asset. Moreover, positive socialisation is found to be related to strong ethnic identity. Based on Phinney’s theory on ethnic identity development and social support theory, this study adopted a strength-based approach conceptualising ethnic identity as the central organising principle that linked perceived social support and mental health among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Aims. Overall aim is to examine the effect of ethnic identity and social support on mental health. Specific aims were to examine : (1) the association between ethnic identity and mental health; (2) the association between perceived social support and mental health ; (3) the indirect effect of ethnic identity linking perceived social support and mental health. Methods. Participants were indigenous adults in Taiwan (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Respondent-driven sampling was used. Standardised measurements were: Ethnic Identity Scale(6-item); Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender and economic satisfaction. A four-stage structural equation modelling (SEM) with robust maximin likelihood estimation was employed using Mplus8.0. Step 1: A measurement model was built and tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Step 2: Factor covariates were re-specified as direct effects in the SEM. Covariates were added. The direct effects of (1) ethnic identity and social support on depression and anxiety and (2) social support on ethnic identity were tested. The indirect effect of ethnic identity was examined with the bootstrapping technique. Results. The CFA model showed satisfactory fit statistics: x^2(df)=869.69(608), p<.05; Comparative ft index (CFI)/ Tucker-Lewis fit index (TLI)=0.95/0.94; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.05; Standardized Root Mean Squared Residual (SRMR)=0.05. Ethnic identity is represented by two latent factors: ethnic identity-commitment and ethnic identity-exploration. Depression, anxiety and social support are single-factor latent variables. For the SEM, model fit statistics were: x^2(df)=779.26(527), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.94/0.93; RMSEA=0.05; SRMR=0.05. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.30) and social support (b=-0.33) had direct negative effects on depression, but ethnic identity-exploration did not. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.43) and social support (b=-0.31) had direct negative effects on anxiety, while identity-exploration (b=0.24) demonstrated a positive effect. Social support had direct positive effects on ethnic identity-exploration (b=0.26) and ethnic identity-commitment (b=0.31). Mediation analysis demonstrated the indirect effect of ethnic identity-commitment linking social support and depression (b=0.22). Implications: Results underscore the role of social support in preventing depression via ethnic identity commitment among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Adopting the strength-based approach, mental health practitioners can mobilise indigenous peoples’ commitment to their group to promote their well-being.

Keywords: ethnic identity, indigenous population, mental health, perceived social support

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Kadri-Ann Kertsmik, Martin Talvik, Kimmo Lylykangas, Simo Ilomets, Targo Kalamees

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This study compares the building carbon footprint (CF) values for a case study of a private house located in a cold climate, using the Level(s) methodology. It provides a framework for measuring the environmental performance of buildings throughout their life cycle, taking into account various factors. The study presents the results of the three scenarios, comparing their carbon emissions and highlighting the benefits of circular material usage. The construction process was thoroughly documented, and all materials and components (including minuscule mechanical fasteners, each meter of cable, a kilogram of mortar, and the component of HVAC systems, among other things) delivered to the construction site were noted. Transportation distances of each delivery, the fuel consumption of construction machines, and electricity consumption for temporary heating and electrical tools were also monitored. Using the detailed data on material and energy resources, the CF was calculated for two scenarios: one where circular material usage was applied and another where virgin materials were used instead of reused ones. The results were compared with the CF calculated based on the building permit design model using the Level(s) methodology. To study the range of possible results in the early stage of CF assessment, the same building permit design was given to several experts. Results showed that embodied carbon values for a built scenario were significantly lower than the values predicted by the building permit stage as a result of more precise material quantities, as the calculation methodology is designed to overestimate the CF. Moreover, designers made an effort to reduce the building's CF by reusing certain materials such as ceramic tiles, lightweight concrete blocks, and timber during the construction process. However, in a cold climate context where operational energy (B6) continues to dominate, the total building CF value changes between the three scenarios were less significant. The calculation for the building permit project was performed by several experts, and CF results were in the same range. It alludes that, for the first estimation of preliminary building CF, using average values proves to be an appropriate method for the Estonian national carbon footprint estimation phase during building permit application. The study also identified several opportunities for reducing the carbon footprint of the building, such as reusing materials from other construction sites, preferring local material producers, and reducing wastage on site. The findings suggest that using circular materials can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of buildings. Overall, the study highlights the importance of using a comprehensive approach to measure the environmental performance of buildings, taking into account both the project and the actually built house. It also emphasises the need for ongoing monitoring for designing the building and construction site waste. The study also gives some examples of how to enable future circularity of building components and materials, e.g., building in layers, using wood as untreated, etc.

Keywords: carbon footprint, circular economy, sustainable construction, level(s) methodology

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn, Li-Chia Tai

Abstract:

With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, low-power built-in sensors on Internet of Things devices, and communication technologies, location-aware services have become increasingly popular and have permeated every aspect of people’s lives. Global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) are the default method of providing continuous positioning services for ground and aerial vehicles, as well as consumer devices (smartphones, watches, notepads, etc.). However, the environment affects satellite positioning systems, particularly indoors, in dense urban and suburban cities enclosed by skyscrapers, or when deep shadows obscure satellite signals. This is because (1) indoor environments are more complicated due to the presence of many objects surrounding them; (2) reflection within the building is highly dependent on the surrounding environment, including the positions of objects and human activity; and (3) satellite signals cannot be reached in an indoor environment, and GNSS doesn't have enough power to penetrate building walls. GPS is also highly power-hungry, which poses a severe challenge for battery-powered IoT devices. Due to these challenges, IoT applications are limited. Consequently, precise, seamless, and ubiquitous Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) systems are crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 0.39 m, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 0.82 m. According to numerical results, SRCLoc improves positioning performance and reduces radio map construction costs significantly compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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Authors: Emre Basturk, Memet Vezir Kahraman

Abstract:

In many developing countries, with the rapid economic improvements, energy shortage and environmental issues have become a serious problem. Therefore, it has become a very critical issue to improve energy usage efficiency and also protect the environment. Thermal energy storage system is an essential approach to match the thermal energy claim and supply. Thermal energy can be stored by heating, cooling or melting a material with the energy and then enhancing accessible when the procedure is reversed. The overall thermal energy storage techniques are sorted as; latent heat or sensible heat thermal energy storage technology segments. Among these methods, latent heat storage is the most effective method of collecting thermal energy. Latent heat thermal energy storage depend on the storage material, emitting or discharging heat as it undergoes a solid to liquid, solid to solid or liquid to gas phase change or vice versa. Phase change materials (PCMs) are promising materials for latent heat storage applications due to their capacities to accumulate high latent heat storage per unit volume by phase change at an almost constant temperature. Phase change materials (PCMs) are being utilized to absorb, collect and discharge thermal energy during the cycle of melting and freezing, converting from one phase to another. Phase Change Materials (PCMs) can generally be arranged into three classes: organic materials, salt hydrates and eutectics. Many kinds of organic and inorganic PCMs and their blends have been examined as latent heat storage materials. Organic PCMs are rather expensive and they have average latent heat storage per unit volume and also have low density. Most organic PCMs are combustible in nature and also have a wide range of melting point. Organic PCMs can be categorized into two major categories: non-paraffinic and paraffin materials. Paraffin materials have been extensively used, due to their high latent heat and right thermal characteristics, such as minimal super cooling, varying phase change temperature, low vapor pressure while melting, good chemical and thermal stability, and self-nucleating behavior. Ultraviolet (UV)-curing technology has been generally used because it has many advantages, such as low energy consumption , high speed, high chemical stability, room-temperature operation, low processing costs and environmental friendly. For many years, PCMs have been used for heating and cooling industrial applications including textiles, refrigerators, construction, transportation packaging for temperature-sensitive products, a few solar energy based systems, biomedical and electronic materials. In this study, UV-curable, fatty alcohol containing soybean oil based phase change materials (PCMs) were obtained and characterized. The phase transition behaviors and thermal stability of the prepared UV-cured biobased PCMs were analyzed by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The heating process phase change enthalpy is measured between 30 and 68 J/g, and the freezing process phase change enthalpy is found between 18 and 70 J/g. The decomposition of UVcured PCMs started at 260 ºC and reached a maximum of 430 ºC.

Keywords: fatty alcohol, phase change material, thermal energy storage, UV curing

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Muzaffar Shaikh, Shoaib Shaikh, Mark Moyou, Gaby Hawat

Abstract:

This paper presents the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in evaluating the site selection of a new plant by a corporation. Due to intense competition at a global level, multinational corporations are continuously striving to minimize production and shipping costs of their products. One key factor that plays significant role in cost minimization is where the production plant is located. In the U.S. for example, labor and land costs continue to be very high while they are much cheaper in countries such as India, China, Indonesia, etc. This is why many multinational U.S. corporations (e.g. General Electric, Caterpillar Inc., Ford, General Motors, etc.), have shifted their manufacturing plants outside. The continued expansion of the Internet and its availability along with technological advances in computer hardware and software all around the globe have facilitated U.S. corporations to expand abroad as they seek to reduce production cost. In particular, management of multinational corporations is constantly engaged in concentrating on countries at a broad level, or cities within specific countries where certain or all parts of their end products or the end products themselves can be manufactured cheaper than in the U.S. AHP is based on preference ratings of a specific decision maker who can be the Chief Operating Officer of a company or his/her designated data analytics engineer. It serves as a tool to first evaluate the plant site selection criteria and second, alternate plant sites themselves against these criteria in a systematic manner. Examples of site selection criteria are: Transportation Modes, Taxes, Energy Modes, Labor Force Availability, Labor Rates, Raw Material Availability, Political Stability, Land Costs, etc. As a necessary first step under AHP, evaluation criteria and alternate plant site countries are identified. Depending upon the fidelity of analysis, specific cities within a country can also be chosen as alternative facility locations. AHP experience in this type of analysis indicates that the initial analysis can be performed at the Country-level. Once a specific country is chosen via AHP, secondary analyses can be performed by selecting specific cities or counties within a country. AHP analysis is usually based on preferred ratings of a decision-maker (e.g., 1 to 5, 1 to 7, or 1 to 9, etc., where 1 means least preferred and a 5 means most preferred). The decision-maker assigns preferred ratings first, criterion vs. criterion and creates a Criteria Matrix. Next, he/she assigns preference ratings by alternative vs. alternative against each criterion. Once this data is collected, AHP is applied to first get the rank-ordering of criteria. Next, rank-ordering of alternatives is done against each criterion resulting in an Alternative Matrix. Finally, overall rank ordering of alternative facility locations is obtained by matrix multiplication of Alternative Matrix and Criteria Matrix. The most practical aspect of AHP is the ‘what if’ analysis that the decision-maker can conduct after the initial results to provide valuable sensitivity information of specific criteria to other criteria and alternatives.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multinational corporations, plant site selection, preference ratings

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: M. Saard, A. Kolk, K. Sepp, L. Pertens, L. Reinart, C. Kööp

Abstract:

Introduction: Social competence is often impaired in children with acquired brain injury (ABI), but evidence-based rehabilitation for social skills has remained undeveloped. Modern technology-based methods create effective and safe learning environments for pediatric social skills remediation. The aim of the study was to implement our structured model of neuro rehab for socio-cognitive deficit using multitouch-multiuser tabletop (MMT) computer-based platforms and virtual reality (VR) technology. Methods: 40 children aged 8-13 years (yrs) have participated in the pilot study: 30 with ABI -epilepsy, traumatic brain injury and/or tic disorder- and 10 healthy age-matched controls. From the patients, 12 have completed the training (M = 11.10 yrs, SD = 1.543) and 20 are still in training or in the waiting-list group (M = 10.69 yrs, SD = 1.704). All children performed the first individual and paired assessments. For patients, second evaluations were performed after the intervention period. Two interactive applications were implemented into rehabilitation design: Snowflake software on MMT tabletop and NoProblem on DiamondTouch Table (DTT), which allowed paired training (2 children at once). Also, in individual training sessions, HTC Vive VR device was used with VR metaphors of difficult social situations to treat social anxiety and train social skills. Results: At baseline (B) evaluations, patients had higher deficits in executive functions on the BRIEF parents’ questionnaire (M = 117, SD = 23.594) compared to healthy controls (M = 22, SD = 18.385). The most impaired components of social competence were emotion recognition, Theory of Mind skills (ToM), cooperation, verbal/non-verbal communication, and pragmatics (Friendship Observation Scale scores only 25-50% out of 100% for patients). In Sentence Completion Task and Spence Anxiety Scale, the patients reported a lack of friends, behavioral problems, bullying in school, and social anxiety. Outcome evaluations: Snowflake on MMT improved executive and cooperation skills and DTT developed communication skills, metacognitive skills, and coping. VR, video modelling and role-plays improved social attention, emotional attitude, gestural behaviors, and decreased social anxiety. NEPSY-II showed improvement in Affect Recognition [B = 7, SD = 5.01 vs outcome (O) = 10, SD = 5.85], Verbal ToM (B = 8, SD = 3.06 vs O = 10, SD = 4.08), Contextual ToM (B = 8, SD = 3.15 vs O = 11, SD = 2.87). ToM Stories test showed an improved understanding of Intentional Lying (B = 7, SD = 2.20 vs O = 10, SD = 0.50), and Sarcasm (B=6, SD = 2.20 vs O = 7, SD = 2.50). Conclusion: Neurorehabilitation based on the Structured Model of Neurorehab for Socio-Cognitive Deficit in children with ABI were effective in social skills remediation. The model helps to understand theoretical connections between components of social competence and modern interactive computerized platforms. We encourage therapists to implement these next-generation devices into the rehabilitation process as MMT and VR interfaces are motivating for children, thus ensuring good compliance. Improving children’s social skills is important for their and their families’ quality of life and social capital.

Keywords: acquired brain injury, children, social skills deficit, technology-based neurorehabilitation

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Authors: Timur S. Zaripov, Artur K. Gilfanov, Sergei S. Sazhin, Steven M. Begg, Morgan R. Heikal

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The calculation of the concentration of inertial droplets in complex flows is encountered in the modelling of numerous engineering and environmental phenomena; for example, fuel droplets in internal combustion engines and airborne pollutant particles. The results of recent research, focused on the development of methods for calculating concentration and their implementation in the commercial CFD code, ANSYS Fluent, is presented here. The study is motivated by the investigation of the mixture preparation processes in internal combustion engines with direct injection of fuel sprays. Two methods are used in our analysis; the Fully Lagrangian method (also known as the Osiptsov method) and the Eulerian approach. The Osiptsov method predicts droplet concentrations along path lines by solving the equations for the components of the Jacobian of the Eulerian-Lagrangian transformation. This method significantly decreases the computational requirements as it does not require counting of large numbers of tracked droplets as in the case of the conventional Lagrangian approach. In the Eulerian approach the average droplet velocity is expressed as a function of the carrier phase velocity as an expansion over the droplet response time and transport equation can be solved in the Eulerian form. The advantage of the method is that droplet velocity can be found without solving additional partial differential equations for the droplet velocity field. The predictions from the two approaches were compared in the analysis of the problem of a dilute gas-droplet flow around an infinitely long, circular cylinder. The concentrations of inertial droplets, with Stokes numbers of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, in steady-state and transient laminar flow conditions, were determined at various Reynolds numbers. In the steady-state case, flows with Reynolds numbers of 1, 10, and 100 were investigated. It has been shown that the results predicted using both methods are almost identical at small Reynolds and Stokes numbers. For larger values of these numbers (Stokes — 0.1, 0.2; Reynolds — 10, 100) the Eulerian approach predicted a wider spread in concentration in the perturbations caused by the cylinder that can be attributed to the averaged droplet velocity field. The transient droplet flow case was investigated for a Reynolds number of 200. Both methods predicted a high droplet concentration in the zones of high strain rate and low concentrations in zones of high vorticity. The maxima of droplet concentration predicted by the Osiptsov method was up to two orders of magnitude greater than that predicted by the Eulerian method; a significant variation for an approach widely used in engineering applications. Based on the results of these comparisons, the Osiptsov method has resulted in a more precise description of the local properties of the inertial droplet flow. The method has been applied to the analysis of the results of experimental observations of a liquid gasoline spray at representative fuel injection pressure conditions. The preliminary results show good qualitative agreement between the predictions of the model and experimental data.

Keywords: internal combustion engines, Eulerian approach, fully Lagrangian approach, gasoline fuel sprays, droplets and particle concentrations

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Authors: Serdar Yaman, Hanzade Haykiri-Acma

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Biomass is a CO₂-neutral fuel that is renewable and sustainable along with having very huge global potential. Efficient use of biomass in power generation and production of biomass-based biofuels can mitigate the greenhouse gasses (GHG) and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. There are also other beneficial effects of biomass energy use such as employment creation and pollutant reduction. However, most of the biomass materials are not capable of competing with fossil fuels in terms of energy content. High moisture content and high volatile matter yields of biomass make it low calorific fuel, and it is very significant concern over fossil fuels. Besides, the density of biomass is generally low, and it brings difficulty in transportation and storage. These negative aspects of biomass can be overcome by thermal pretreatments that upgrade the fuel property of biomass. That is, torrefaction is such a thermal process in which biomass is heated up to 300ºC under non-oxidizing conditions to avoid burning of the material. The treated biomass is called as biochar that has considerably lower contents of moisture, volatile matter, and oxygen compared to the parent biomass. Accordingly, carbon content and the calorific value of biochar increase to the level which is comparable with that of coal. Moreover, hydrophilic nature of untreated biomass that leads decay in the structure is mostly eliminated, and the surface properties of biochar turn into hydrophobic character upon torrefaction. In order to investigate the effectiveness of torrefaction process on biomass properties, several biomass species such as olive milling residue (OMR), Rhododendron (small shrubby tree with bell-shaped flowers), and ash tree (timber tree) were chosen. The fuel properties of these biomasses were analyzed through proximate and ultimate analyses as well as higher heating value (HHV) determination. For this, samples were first chopped and ground to a particle size lower than 250 µm. Then, samples were subjected to torrefaction in a horizontal tube furnace by heating from ambient up to temperatures of 200, 250, and 300ºC at a heating rate of 10ºC/min. The biochars obtained from this process were also tested by the methods applied to the parent biomass species. Improvement in the fuel properties was interpreted. That is, increasing torrefaction temperature led to regular increases in the HHV in OMR, and the highest HHV (6065 kcal/kg) was gained at 300ºC. Whereas, torrefaction at 250ºC was seen optimum for Rhododendron and ash tree since torrefaction at 300ºC had a detrimental effect on HHV. On the other hand, the increase in carbon contents and reduction in oxygen contents were determined. Burning characteristics of the biochars were also studied using thermal analysis technique. For this purpose, TA Instruments SDT Q600 model thermal analyzer was used and the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), derivative thermogravimetry (DTG), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and differential thermal analysis (DTA) curves were compared and interpreted. It was concluded that torrefaction is an efficient method to upgrade the fuel properties of biomass and the biochars from which have superior characteristics compared to the parent biomasses.

Keywords: biochar, biomass, fuel upgrade, torrefaction

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Adam Sims, Madhav Soti, Jitendra Gautam, David Carron

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Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis is a complex series of heterogeneous reactions between CO and H2 molecules (present in the syngas) on the surface of an active catalyst (Co, Fe, Ru, Ni, etc.) to produce gaseous, liquid, and waxy hydrocarbons. This product is composed of paraffins, olefins, and oxygenated compounds. The key challenge in applying the Fischer-Tropsch process to produce transportation fuels is to make the capital and production costs economically feasible relative to the comparative cost of existing petroleum resources. To meet this challenge, it is imperative to enhance the CO conversion while maximizing carbon selectivity towards the desired liquid hydrocarbon ranges (i.e. reduction in CH4 and CO2 selectivities) at high throughputs. At the same time, it is equally essential to increase the catalyst robustness and longevity without sacrificing catalyst activity. This paper focuses on process development to achieve the above. The paper describes the influence of operating parameters on Fischer Tropsch synthesis (FTS) from coal derived syngas in supercritical carbon dioxide (ScCO2). In addition, the unreacted gas and solvent recycle was incorporated and the effect of unreacted feed recycle was evaluated. It was expected that with the recycle, the feed rate can be increased. The increase in conversion and liquid selectivity accompanied by the production of narrower carbon number distribution in the product suggest that higher flow rates can and should be used when incorporating exit gas recycle. It was observed that this process was capable of enhancing the hydrocarbon selectivity (nearly 98 % CO conversion), reducing improving the carbon efficiency from 17 % to 51 % in a once through process and further converting 16 % CO2 to liquid with integrated recycle of the product gas stream and increasing the life of the catalyst. Catalyst robustness enhancement has been attributed to the absorption of heat of reaction by the compressed CO2 which reduced the formation of hotspots and the dissolution of waxes by the CO2 solvent which reduced the blinding of active sites. In addition, the recycling the product gas stream reduced the reactor footprint to one-fourth of the once through size and product fractionation utilizing the solvent effects of supercritical CO2 were realized. In addition to the negative CO2 selectivities, methane production was also inhibited and was limited to less than 1.5%. The effect of the process conditions on the life of the catalysts will also be presented. Fe based catalysts are known to have a high proclivity for producing CO2 during FTS. The data of the product spectrum and selectivity on Co and Fe-Co based catalysts as well as those obtained from commercial sources will also be presented. The measurable decision criteria were the increase in CO conversion at H2:CO ratio of 1:1 (as commonly found in coal gasification product stream) in supercritical phase as compared to gas phase reaction, decrease in CO2 and CH4 selectivity, overall liquid product distribution, and finally an increase in the life of the catalysts.

Keywords: carbon efficiency, Fischer Tropsch synthesis, low GHG, pressure tunable fractionation

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Authors: Gabriel Malgaresi, Sara Borazjani, Hadi Madani, Pavel Bedrikovetsky

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Suspension-Colloidal flow in porous media occurs in numerous engineering fields, such as industrial water treatment, the disposal of industrial wastes into aquifers with the propagation of contaminants and low salinity water injection into petroleum reservoirs. The main effects are particle mobilization and captured by the porous rock, which can cause pore plugging and permeability reduction which is known as formation damage. Various factors such as fluid salinity, pH, temperature, and rock properties affect particle detachment. Formation damage is unfavorable specifically near injection and production wells. One way to control formation damage is pre-treatment of the rock with nanoparticles. Adsorption of nanoparticles on fines and rock surfaces alters zeta-potential of the surfaces and enhances the attachment force between the rock and fine particles. The main objective of this study is to develop a two-stage mathematical model for (1) flow and adsorption of nanoparticles on the rock in the pre-treatment stage and (2) fines migration and permeability reduction during the water production after the pre-treatment. The model accounts for adsorption and desorption of nanoparticles, fines migration, and kinetics of particle capture. The system of equations allows for the exact solution. The non-self-similar wave-interaction problem was solved by the Method of Characteristics. The analytical model is new in two ways: First, it accounts for the specific boundary and initial condition describing the injection of nanoparticle and production from the pre-treated porous media; second, it contains the effect of nanoparticle sorption hysteresis. The derived analytical model contains explicit formulae for the concentration fronts along with pressure drop. The solution is used to determine the optimal injection concentration of nanoparticle to avoid formation damage. The mathematical model was validated via an innovative laboratory program. The laboratory study includes two sets of core-flood experiments: (1) production of water without nanoparticle pre-treatment; (2) pre-treatment of a similar core with nanoparticles followed by water production. Positively-charged Alumina nanoparticles with the average particle size of 100 nm were used for the rock pre-treatment. The core was saturated with the nanoparticles and then flushed with low salinity water; pressure drop across the core and the outlet fine concentration was monitored and used for model validation. The results of the analytical modeling showed a significant reduction in the fine outlet concentration and formation damage. This observation was in great agreement with the results of core-flood data. The exact solution accurately describes fines particle breakthroughs and evaluates the positive effect of nanoparticles in formation damage. We show that the adsorbed concentration of nanoparticle highly affects the permeability of the porous media. For the laboratory case presented, the reduction of permeability after 1 PVI production in the pre-treated scenario is 50% lower than the reference case. The main outcome of this study is to provide a validated mathematical model to evaluate the effect of nanoparticles on formation damage.

Keywords: nano-particles, formation damage, permeability, fines migration

Procedia PDF Downloads 598

Authors: Kalep Filli, Sophia Wassén, Annika Krona, Mats Stading

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Food security challenge and the growing population in Sub-Saharan Africa centers on its agricultural transformation, where about 70% of its population is directly involved in farming. Research input can create economic opportunities, reduce malnutrition and poverty, and generate faster, fairer growth. Africa is discarding $4 billion worth of grain annually due to pre and post-harvest losses. Grains and tubers play a central role in food supply in the region but their production has generally lagged behind because no robust scientific input to meet up with the challenge. The African grains are still chronically underutilized to the detriment of the well-being of the people of Africa and elsewhere. The major reason for their underutilization is because they are under-researched. Any commitment by scientific community to intervene needs creative solutions focused on innovative approaches that will meet the economic growth. In order to mitigate this hurdle, co-creation activities and initiatives are necessary.An example of such initiatives has been initiated through Modibbo Adama University of Technology Yola, Nigeria and RISE (The Research Institutes of Sweden) Gothenburg, Sweden. Exchange of expertise in research activities as a possibility to create channel for value addition to agricultural commodities in the region under the ´Traditional Grain Network programme´ is in place. Process technologies, such as extrusion offers the possibility of creating products in the food and feed sectors, with better storage stability, added value, lower transportation cost and new markets. The Swedish–Nigerian initiative has focused on the development of high protein pasta. Dry microscopy of pasta sample result shows a continuous structural framework of proteins and starch matrix. The water absorption index (WAI) results showed that water was absorbed steadily and followed the master curve pattern. The WAI values ranged between 250 – 300%. In all aspect, the water absorption history was within a narrow range for all the eight samples. The total cooking time for all the eight samples in our study ranged between 5 – 6 minutes with their respective dry sample diameter ranging between 1.26 – 1.35 mm. The percentage water solubility index (WSI) ranged from 6.03 – 6.50% which was within a narrow range and the cooking loss which is a measure of WSI is considered as one of the main parameters taken into consideration during the assessment of pasta quality. The protein contents of the samples ranged between 17.33 – 18.60 %. The value of the cooked pasta firmness ranged from 0.28 - 0.86 N. The result shows that increase in ratio of cowpea flour and level of pregelatinized cowpea tends to increase the firmness of the pasta. The breaking strength represent index of toughness of the dry pasta ranged and it ranged from 12.9 - 16.5 MPa.

Keywords: cowpea, extrusion, gluten free, high protein, pasta, sorghum

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Ntandazo Dlatu, Benjamin Longo-Mbenza, Andre Renzaho, Ruffin Appalata, Yolande Yvonne Valeria Matoumona Mavoungou, Mbenza Ben Longo, Kenneth Ekoru, Blaise Makoso, Gedeon Longo Longo

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Background: The gap between complexities related to the integration of Tuberculosis /HIV control and evidence-based knowledge motivated the initiation of the study. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore correlations between national TB management guidelines, multiple deprivation indexes, quantiles, components and levels of Tuberculosis control programme using mathematical modeling in rural O.R. Tambo District Health Facilities, South Africa. Methods: The study design used mixed secondary data analysis and cross-sectional analysis between 2009 and 2013 across O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa using univariate/ bivariate analysis, linear multiple regression models, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Health inequalities indicators and component of an impediment to the tuberculosis control programme were evaluated. Results: In total, 62 400 records for TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009-2013. There was a significant but negative between Financial Year Expenditure (r= -0.894; P= 0.041) Seropositive HIV status(r= -0.979; P= 0.004), Population Density (r = -0.881; P= 0.048) and the number of TB defaulter in all TB cases. It was shown unsuccessful control of TB management program through correlations between numbers of new PTB smear positive, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB failure all TB, Pulmonary Tuberculosis case finding index and deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. It was shown successful TB program control through significant and negative associations between declining numbers of death in co-infection of HIV and TB, TB deaths all TB and SMIAD gradient/ deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. The multivariate linear model was summarized by unadjusted r of 96%, adjusted R2 of 95 %, Standard Error of estimate of 0.110, R2 changed of 0.959 and significance for variance change for P=0.004 to explain the prediction of TB defaulter in all TB with equation y= 8.558-0.979 x number of HIV seropositive. After adjusting for confounding factors (PTB case finding the index, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB death in all TB, TB defaulter all TB, and TB failure in all TB). The HIV and TB death, as well as new PTB smear positive, were identified as the most important, significant, and independent indicator to discriminate most deprived deprivation index far from other deprivation quintiles 2-5 using discriminant analysis. Conclusion: Elimination of poverty such as overcrowding, lack of sanitation and environment of highest burden of HIV might end the TB threat in O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Furthermore, ongoing adequate budget comprehensive, holistic and collaborative initiative towards Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDGs) is necessary for complete elimination of TB in poor O.R Tambo District.

Keywords: tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, success, failure, control program, health inequalities, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: James Cairns, Marco Vezza, Richard Green, Donald MacVicar

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Significant legislative changes are set to revolutionise the commercial shipping industry. Upcoming emissions restrictions will force operators to look at technologies that can improve the efficiency of their vessels -reducing fuel consumption and emissions. A device which may help in this challenge is the Ship Wind-Assisted Propulsion system (SWAP), an actively controlled aerofoil mounted vertically on the deck of a ship. The device functions in a similar manner to a sail on a yacht, whereby the aerodynamic forces generated by the sail reach an equilibrium with the hydrodynamic forces on the hull and a forward velocity results. Numerical and experimental testing of the SWAP device is presented in this study. Circulation control takes the form of a co-flow jet aerofoil, utilising both blowing from the leading edge and suction from the trailing edge. A jet at the leading edge uses the Coanda effect to energise the boundary layer in order to delay flow separation and create high lift with low drag. The SWAP concept has been originated by the research and development team at SMAR Azure Ltd. The device will be retrofitted to existing ships so that a component of the aerodynamic forces acts forward and partially reduces the reliance on existing propulsion systems. Wind tunnel tests have been carried out at the de Havilland wind tunnel at the University of Glasgow on a 1:20 scale model of this system. The tests aim to understand the airflow characteristics around the aerofoil and investigate the approximate lift and drag coefficients that an early iteration of the SWAP device may produce. The data exhibits clear trends of increasing lift as injection momentum increases, with critical flow attachment points being identified at specific combinations of jet momentum coefficient, Cµ, and angle of attack, AOA. Various combinations of flow conditions were tested, with the jet momentum coefficient ranging from 0 to 0.7 and the AOA ranging from 0° to 35°. The Reynolds number across the tested conditions ranged from 80,000 to 240,000. Comparisons between 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and the experimental data are presented for multiple Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models in the form of normalised surface pressure comparisons. These show good agreement for most of the tested cases. However, certain simulation conditions exhibited a well-documented shortcoming of RANS-based turbulence models for circulation control flows and over-predicted surface pressures and lift coefficient for fully attached flow cases. Work must be continued in finding an all-encompassing modelling approach which predicts surface pressures well for all combinations of jet injection momentum and AOA.

Keywords: CFD, circulation control, Coanda, turbo wing sail, wind tunnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Frea Van Steenweghen, Lander Hollevoet, Johan A. Martens

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Compared to other hydrogen (H₂) carriers, ammonia (NH₃) is one of the most promising carriers as it contains 17.6 wt% hydrogen. It is easily liquefied at ≈ 9–10 bar pressure at ambient temperature. More importantly, NH₃ is a carbon-free hydrogen carrier with no CO₂ emission at final decomposition. Ammonia has a well-defined regulatory framework and a good track record regarding safety concerns. Furthermore, the industry already has an existing transport infrastructure consisting of pipelines, tank trucks and shipping technology, as ammonia has been manufactured and distributed around the world for over a century. While NH₃ synthesis and transportation technological solutions are at hand, a missing link in the hydrogen delivery scheme from ammonia is an energy-lean and efficient technology for cracking ammonia into H₂ and N₂. The most explored option for ammonia decomposition is thermo-catalytic cracking which is, by itself, the most energy-efficient approach compared to other technologies, such as plasma and electrolysis, as it is the most energy-lean and robust option. The decomposition reaction is favoured only at high temperatures (> 300°C) and low pressures (1 bar) as the thermocatalytic ammonia cracking process is faced with thermodynamic limitations. At 350°C, the thermodynamic equilibrium at 1 bar pressure limits the conversion to 99%. Gaining additional conversion up to e.g. 99.9% necessitates heating to ca. 530°C. However, reaching thermodynamic equilibrium is infeasible as a sufficient driving force is needed, requiring even higher temperatures. Limiting the conversion below the equilibrium composition is a more economical option. Thermocatalytic ammonia cracking is documented in scientific literature. Among the investigated metal catalysts (Ru, Co, Ni, Fe, …), ruthenium is known to be most active for ammonia decomposition with an onset of cracking activity around 350°C. For establishing > 99% conversion reaction, temperatures close to 600°C are required. Such high temperatures are likely to reduce the round-trip efficiency but also the catalyst lifetime because of the sintering of the supported metal phase. In this research, the first focus was on catalyst bed design, avoiding diffusion limitation. Experiments in our packed bed tubular reactor set-up showed that extragranular diffusion limitations occur at low concentrations of NH₃ when reaching high conversion, a phenomenon often overlooked in experimental work. A second focus was thermocatalyst development for ammonia cracking, avoiding the use of noble metals. To this aim, candidate metals and mixtures were deposited on a range of supports. Sintering resistance at high temperatures and the basicity of the support were found to be crucial catalyst properties. The catalytic activity was promoted by adding alkaline and alkaline earth metals. A third focus was studying the optimum process configuration by process simulations. A trade-off between conversion and favorable operational conditions (i.e. low pressure and high temperature) may lead to different process configurations, each with its own pros and cons. For example, high-pressure cracking would eliminate the need for post-compression but is detrimental for the thermodynamic equilibrium, leading to an optimum in cracking pressure in terms of energy cost.

Keywords: ammonia cracking, catalyst research, kinetics, process simulation, thermodynamic equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

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National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Valentina V. Goftman, Vladislav A. Pankratov, Alexey V. Markin, Tangi Aubert, Zeger Hens, Sarah De Saeger, Irina Yu. Goryacheva

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The most important requirements for biochemical applicability of quantum dots (QDs) are: 1) the surface cap should render intact or improved optical properties; 2) mono-dispersion and good stability in aqueous phase in a wide range of pH and ionic strength values; 3) presence of functional groups, available for bioconjugation; 4) minimal impact from the environment on the QDs’ properties and, vice versa, minimal influence of the QDs’ components on the environment; and 5) stability against chemical/biochemical/physical influence. The latter is especially important for in vitro and in vivo applications. For example, some physical intracellular delivery strategies (e.g., electroporation) imply a rapid high-voltage electric field impulse in order to temporarily generate hydrophilic pores in the cell plasma membrane, necessary for the passive transportation of QDs into the cell. In this regard, it is interesting to investigate how different capping layers, which can provide high stability and sufficient fluorescent properties of QDs in a water solution, behave under these abnormal conditions. In this contribution, hydrophobic core-shell CdSe/CdS/CdZnS/ZnS QDs (λem=600 nm), produced by means of the Successive Ion Layer Adsorption and Reaction (SILAR) technique, were transferred to a water solution using two of the most commonly used methods: (i) encapsulation in an amphiphilic brush polymer based on poly(maleic anhydride-alt-1-octadecene) (PMAO) modified with polyethylene glycol (PEG) chains and (ii) silica covering. Polymer encapsulation preserves the initial ligands on the QDs’ surface owing to the hydrophobic attraction between the hydrophobic groups of the amphiphilic molecules and the surface hydrophobic groups of the QDs. This covering process allows maintaining the initial fluorescent properties, but it leads to a considerable increase of the QDs’ size. However, covering with a silica shell, by means of the reverse microemulsion method, allows maintaining both size and fluorescent properties of the initial QDs. The obtained water solutions of polymer covered and silica-coated QDs in three different concentrations were exposed to a low-voltage electric field for a short time and the fluorescent properties were investigated. It is shown that the PMAO-PEG polymer acquires some additional charges in the presence of the electric field, which causes repulsion between the polymer and the QDs’ surface. This process destroys the homogeneity of the whole amphiphilic shell and it dramatically decreases the fluorescent properties (dropping to 10% from its initial value) because of the direct contact of the QDs with the strongly oxidative environment (water). In contrast, a silica shell possesses dielectric properties which allow retaining 90% of its initial fluorescence intensity, even after a longer electric impact. Thus, silica shells are clearly a preferable covering for bio-application of QDs, because – besides the high uniform morphology, controlled size and biocompatibility – it allows protecting QDs from oxidation, even under the influence of an electric field.

Keywords: electric field, polymer coating, quantum dots, silica covering, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea

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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Matej Komanec, Tomas Nemecek, Dmytro Suslov, Petr Chvojka, Stanislav Zvanovec

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Nonlinear phenomena in the near- and mid-infrared region are attracting scientific attention mainly due to the supercontinuum generation possibilities and subsequent utilizations for ultra-wideband applications like e.g. absorption spectroscopy or optical coherence tomography. Thulium-based fiber lasers provide access to high-power ultrashort pump pulses in the vicinity of 2000 nm, which can be easily exploited for various nonlinear applications. The paper presents a simulation and experimental study of a pulsed thulium laser based for near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) nonlinear applications in specialty optical fibers. In the first part of the paper the thulium laser is discussed. The thulium laser is based on a gain-switched seed-laser and a series of amplification stages for obtaining output peak powers in the order of kilowatts for pulses shorter than 200 ps in full-width at half-maximum. The pulsed thulium laser is first studied in a simulation software, focusing on seed-laser properties. Afterward, a pre-amplification thulium-based stage is discussed, with the focus of low-noise signal amplification, high signal gain and eliminating pulse distortions during pulse propagation in the gain medium. Following the pre-amplification stage a second gain stage is evaluated with incorporating a thulium-fiber of shorter length with increased rare-earth dopant ratio. Last a power-booster stage is analyzed, where the peak power of kilowatts should be achieved. Examples of analytical study are further validated by the experimental campaign. The simulation model is further corrected based on real components – parameters such as real insertion-losses, cross-talks, polarization dependencies, etc. are included. The second part of the paper evaluates the utilization of nonlinear phenomena, their specific features at the vicinity of 2000 nm, compared to e.g. 1550 nm, and presents supercontinuum modelling, based on the thulium laser pulsed output. Supercontinuum generation simulation is performed and provides reasonably accurate results, once fiber dispersion profile is precisely defined and fiber nonlinearity is known, furthermore input pulse shape and peak power must be known, which is assured thanks to the experimental measurement of the studied thulium pulsed laser. The supercontinuum simulation model is put in relation to designed and characterized specialty optical fibers, which are discussed in the third part of the paper. The focus is placed on silica and mainly on non-silica fibers (fluoride, chalcogenide, lead-silicate) in their conventional, microstructured or tapered variants. Parameters such as dispersion profile and nonlinearity of exploited fibers were characterized either with an accurate model, developed in COMSOL software or by direct experimental measurement to achieve even higher precision. The paper then combines all three studied topics and presents a possible application of such a thulium pulsed laser system working with specialty optical fibers.

Keywords: nonlinear phenomena, specialty optical fibers, supercontinuum generation, thulium laser

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Andrés Durán, Brian Castellanos, Marta Quicazán, Carlos Zuluaga-Domínguez

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Bee-pollen is an apicultural-derived food product, with a growing appreciation among consumers given the remarkable nutritional and functional composition, in particular, protein (24%), dietary fiber (15%), phenols (15 – 20 GAE/g) and carotenoids (600 – 900 µg/g). These properties are given by the geographical and climatic characteristics of the region where it is collected. There are several countries recognized by their pollen production, e.g. China, United States, Japan, Spain, among others. Beekeepers use traps in the entrance of the hive where bee-pollen is collected. After the removal of foreign particles and drying, this product is ready to be marketed. However, in countries located along the equator, the absence of seasons and a constant tropical climate throughout the year favors a more rapid spoilage condition for foods with elevated water activity. The climatic conditions also trigger the proliferation of microorganisms and insects. This, added to the factor that beekeepers usually do not have adequate processing systems for bee-pollen, leads to deficiencies in the quality and safety of the product. In contrast, the Andean region of South America, lying on equator, typically has a high production of bee-pollen of up to 36 kg/year/hive, being four times higher than in countries with marked seasons. This region is also located in altitudes superior to 2500 meters above sea level, having extremes sun ultraviolet radiation all year long. As a mechanism of defense of radiation, plants produce more secondary metabolites acting as antioxidant agents, hence, plant products such as bee-pollen contain remarkable more phenolics and carotenoids than collected in other places. Considering this, the improvement of bee-pollen processing facilities by technical modifications and the implementation of an integrated cleaning and drying system for the product in an apiary in the area was proposed. The beehives were modified through the installation of alternative bee-pollen traps to avoid sources of contamination. The processing facility was modified according to considerations of Good Manufacturing Practices, implementing the combined use of a cabin dryer with temperature control and forced airflow and a greenhouse-type solar drying system. Additionally, for the separation of impurities, a cyclone type system was implemented, complementary to a screening equipment. With these modifications, a decrease in the content of impurities and the microbiological load of bee-pollen was seen from the first stages, principally with a reduction of the presence of molds and yeasts and in the number of foreign animal origin impurities. The use of the greenhouse solar dryer integrated to the cabin dryer allowed the processing of larger quantities of product with shorter waiting times in storage, reaching a moisture content of about 6% and a water activity lower than 0.6, being appropriate for the conservation of bee-pollen. Additionally, the contents of functional or nutritional compounds were not affected, even observing an increase of up to 25% in phenols content and a non-significant decrease in carotenoids content and antioxidant activity.

Keywords: beekeeping, drying, food processing, food safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Robert Pečenko, Karin Tomažič, Igor Planinc, Sabina Huč, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber is favourable structural material due to high strength to weight ratio, recycling possibilities, and green credentials. Despite being flammable material, it has relatively high fire resistance. Everyday engineering practice around the word is based on an outdated design of timber structures considering standard fire exposure, while modern principles of performance-based design enable use of advanced non-standard fire curves. In Europe, standard for fire design of timber structures EN 1995-1-2 (Eurocode 5) gives two methods, reduced material properties method and reduced cross-section method. In the latter, fire resistance of structural elements depends on the effective cross-section that is a residual cross-section of uncharred timber reduced additionally by so called zero strength layer. In case of standard fire exposure, Eurocode 5 gives a fixed value of zero strength layer, i.e. 7 mm, while for non-standard parametric fires no additional comments or recommendations for zero strength layer are given. Thus designers often implement adopted 7 mm rule also for parametric fire exposure. Since the latest scientific evidence suggests that proposed value of zero strength layer can be on unsafe side for standard fire exposure, its use in the case of a parametric fire is also highly questionable and more numerical and experimental research in this field is needed. Therefore, the purpose of the presented study is to use advanced calculation methods to investigate the thickness of zero strength layer and parametric charring rates used in effective cross-section method in case of parametric fire. Parametric studies are carried out on a simple solid timber beam that is exposed to a larger number of parametric fire curves Zero strength layer and charring rates are determined based on the numerical simulations which are performed by the recently developed advanced two step computational model. The first step comprises of hygro-thermal model which predicts the temperature, moisture and char depth development and takes into account different initial moisture states of timber. In the second step, the response of timber beam simultaneously exposed to mechanical and fire load is determined. The mechanical model is based on the Reissner’s kinematically exact beam model and accounts for the membrane, shear and flexural deformations of the beam. Further on, material non-linear and temperature dependent behaviour is considered. In the two step model, the char front temperature is, according to Eurocode 5, assumed to have a fixed temperature of around 300°C. Based on performed study and observations, improved levels of charring rates and new thickness of zero strength layer in case of parametric fires are determined. Thus, the reduced cross section method is substantially improved to offer practical recommendations for designing fire resistance of timber structures. Furthermore, correlations between zero strength layer thickness and key input parameters of the parametric fire curve (for instance, opening factor, fire load, etc.) are given, representing a guideline for a more detailed numerical and also experimental research in the future.

Keywords: advanced numerical modelling, parametric fire exposure, timber structures, zero strength layer

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: N. C. Shahi, Anupama Singh, E. Kate

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Drying is practiced to enhance the storage life, to minimize losses during storage, and to reduce transportation costs of agricultural products. Drying processes range from open sun drying to industrial drying. In most of the developing countries, use of fossil fuels for drying of agricultural products has not been practically feasible due to unaffordable costs to majority of the farmers. On the other hand, traditional open sun drying practiced on a large scale in the rural areas of the developing countries suffers from high product losses due to inadequate drying, fungal growth, encroachment of insects, birds and rodents, etc. To overcome these problems a middle technology dryer having low cost need to be developed for farmers. In case of mechanical dryers, the heated air is the main driving force for removal of moisture. The air is heated either electrically or by burning wood, coal, natural gas etc. using heaters. But, all these common sources have finite supplies. The lifetime is estimated to range from 15 years for a natural gas to nearly 250 years for coal. So, mankind must turn towards its safe and reliable utilization and may have undesirable side effects. The mechanical drying involves higher cost of drying and open sun drying deteriorates the quality. The solar tunnel dryer is one of promising option for drying various agricultural and agro-industrial products on large scale. The advantage of Solar tunnel dryer is its relatively cheaper cost of construction and operation. Although many solar dryers have been developed, still there is a scope of modification in them. Therefore, an attempt was made to develop Solar tunnel dryer and test its performance using highly perishable commodity i.e. leafy vegetables (spinach). The effect of air velocity, loading density and shade net on performance parameters namely, collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency of dryer and specific heat energy consumption were also studied. Thus, the need for an intermediate level technology was realized and an effort was made to develop a small scale Solar Tunnel Dryer . A dryer consisted of base frame, semi cylindrical drying chamber, solar collector and absorber, air distribution system with chimney and auxiliary heating system, and wheels for its mobility were the main functional components. Drying of fenugreek was carried out to analyze the performance of the dryer. The Solar Tunnel Dryer temperature was maintained using the auxiliary heating system. The ambient temperature was in the range of 12-33oC. The relative humidity was found inside and outside the Solar Tunnel Dryer in the range of 21-75% and 35-79%, respectively. The solar radiation was recorded in the range of 350-780W/m2 during the experimental period. Studies revealed that total drying time was in range of 230 to 420 min. The drying time in Solar Tunnel Dryer was considerably reduced by 67% as compared to sun drying. The collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency and specific heat consumption were determined and were found to be in the range of 50.06- 38.71%, 15.53-24.72%, 4.25 to 13.34% and 1897.54-3241.36 kJ/kg, respectively.

Keywords: overall efficiency, solar tunnel dryer, specific heat consumption, sun drying

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Anastasia Tsakiridi

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Geographic information systems (GIS) have been utilized in numerous spatial problems, such as site research, land suitability, and demographic analysis. Besides, GIS has been applied in scientific fields like geography, health, and economics. In business studies, GIS has been used to provide insights and spatial perspectives in demographic trends, spending indicators, and network analysis. To date, the information regarding the available usages of GIS in supply chain management (SCM) and how these analyses can benefit businesses is limited. A systematic literature review (SLR) of the last 5-year peer-reviewed academic literature was conducted, aiming to explore the existing usages of GIS in SCM. The searches were performed in 3 databases (Web of Science, ProQuest, and Business Source Premier) and reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. The analysis resulted in 79 papers. The results indicate that the existing GIS applications used in SCM were in the following domains: a) network/ transportation analysis (in 53 of the papers), b) location – allocation site search/ selection (multiple-criteria decision analysis) (in 45 papers), c) spatial analysis (demographic or physical) (in 34 papers), d) combination of GIS and supply chain/network optimization tools (in 32 papers), and e) visualization/ monitoring or building information modeling applications (in 8 papers). An additional categorization of the literature was conducted by examining the usage of GIS in the supply chain (SC) by the business sectors, as indicated by the volume of the papers. The results showed that GIS is mainly being applied in the SC of the biomass biofuel/wood industry (33 papers). Other industries that are currently utilizing GIS in their SC were the logistics industry (22 papers), the humanitarian/emergency/health care sector (10 papers), the food/agro-industry sector (5 papers), the petroleum/ coal/ shale gas sector (3 papers), the faecal sludge sector (2 papers), the recycle and product footprint industry (2 papers), and the construction sector (2 papers). The results were also presented by the geography of the included studies and the GIS software used to provide critical business insights and suggestions for future research. The results showed that research case studies of GIS in SCM were conducted in 26 countries (mainly in the USA) and that the most prominent GIS software provider was the Environmental Systems Research Institute’s ArcGIS (in 51 of the papers). This study is a systematic literature review of the usage of GIS in SCM. The results showed that the GIS capabilities could offer substantial benefits in SCM decision-making by providing key insights to cost minimization, supplier selection, facility location, SC network configuration, and asset management. However, as presented in the results, only eight industries/sectors are currently using GIS in their SCM activities. These findings may offer essential tools to SC managers who seek to optimize the SC activities and/or minimize logistic costs and to consultants and business owners that want to make strategic SC decisions. Furthermore, the findings may be of interest to researchers aiming to investigate unexplored research areas where GIS may improve SCM.

Keywords: supply chain management, logistics, systematic literature review, GIS

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Authors: Tomofumi Kubota, Mitsuhiro Okayasu

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In recent years, environmental problems and energy problems typified by global warming are intensifying, and transportation devices are required to reduce the weight of structural materials from the viewpoint of strengthening fuel efficiency regulations and energy saving. Carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) used in this research is attracting attention as a structural material to replace metallic materials. Among them, thermoplastic CFRP is expected to expand its application range in terms of recyclability and cost. High formability and weldability of the unidirectional CFRP sheets conducted by a proposed hot stamping process were proposed, in which the carbon fiber reinforced plastic sheets are heated by a designed technique. In this case, the CFRP sheets are heated by the high electric voltage applied through carbon fibers. In addition, the electric voltage was controlled by the area ratio of exposed carbon fiber on the sample surfaces. The lower exposed carbon fiber on the sample surface makes high electric resistance leading to the high sample temperature. In this case, the CFRP sheets can be heated to more than 150 °C. With the sample heating, the stamping and welding technologies can be carried out. By changing the sample temperature, the suitable stamping condition can be detected. Moreover, the proper welding connection of the CFRP sheets was proposed. In this study, we propose a fusion bonding technique using thermoplasticity, high current flow, and heating caused by electrical resistance. This technology uses the principle of resistance spot welding. In particular, the relationship between the carbon fiber exposure rate and the electrical resistance value that affect the bonding strength is investigated. In this approach, the mechanical connection using rivet is also conducted to make a comparison of the severity of welding. The change of connecting strength is reflected by the fracture mechanism. The low and high connecting strength are obtained for the separation of two CFRP sheets and fractured inside the CFRP sheet, respectively. In addition to the two fracture modes, micro-cracks in CFRP are also detected. This approach also includes mechanical connections using rivets to compare the severity of the welds. The change in bond strength is reflected by the destruction mechanism. Low and high bond strengths were obtained to separate the two CFRP sheets, each broken inside the CFRP sheets. In addition to the two failure modes, micro cracks in CFRP are also detected. In this research, from the relationship between the surface carbon fiber ratio and the electrical resistance value, it was found that different carbon fiber ratios had similar electrical resistance values. Therefore, we investigated which of carbon fiber and resin is more influential to bonding strength. As a result, the lower the carbon fiber ratio, the higher the bonding strength. And this is 50% better than the conventional average strength. This can be evaluated by observing whether the fracture mode is interface fracture or internal fracture.

Keywords: CFRP, hot stamping, weliding, deforamtion, mechanical property

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Authors: Adino Andaregie, Isao Takagi, Hirohisa Shimura, Mitsuko Chikasada, Shinjiro Sato, Solomon Addisu

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Context: The prevalence of undernutrition in developing countries like Ethiopia has become a significant issue. In this regard, finding alternative nutritional supplements seems to be a practical solution. Spirulina, a highly nutritious microalgae, offers a valuable option as it is a rich source of various essential nutrients. The study aimed to establish the factors affecting urban Ethiopian consumers' consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread. Research Aim: The primary purpose of this research is to identify the behavioral and socioeconomic factors impacting the intention of urban Ethiopian consumers to eat Spirulina-fortified bread. Methodology: The research utilized a quantitative approach wherein a structured questionnaire was created and distributed among 361 urban consumers via an online platform. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) was used as a conceptual framework, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM) were employed for data analysis. Findings: The study results revealed that attitude towards the supplement, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were the critical factors influencing the consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread. Moreover, age, physical exercise, and prior knowledge of Spirulina as a food ingredient were also found to have a significant influence. Theoretical Importance: The study contributes towards the understanding of consumer behavior and factors affecting the purchase intentions of Spirulina-fortified bread in urban Ethiopia. The use of TPB as a theoretical framework adds a vital aspect to the study as it provides helpful insights into the factors affecting intentions towards this functional food. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data collection process involved the creation of a structured questionnaire, which was distributed online to urban Ethiopian consumers. Once data was collected, CFA and SEM were utilized to analyze the data and identify the factors impacting consumer behavior. Questions Addressed: The study aimed to address the following questions: (1) What are the behavioral and socioeconomic factors impacting urban Ethiopian consumers' consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread? (2) To what extent do attitude towards the supplement, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control affect the purchase intention of Spirulina-fortified bread? (3) What role does age, education, income, physical exercise, and prior knowledge of Spirulina as a food ingredient play in the purchase intention of Spirulina-fortified bread among urban Ethiopian consumers? Conclusion: The study concludes that attitude towards the supplement, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control are significant factors influencing urban Ethiopian consumers’ consumption intention of Spirulina-fortified bread. Moreover, age, education, income, physical exercise, and prior knowledge of Spirulina as a food ingredient also play a significant role in determining purchase intentions. The findings provide valuable insights for developing effective marketing strategies for Spirulina-fortified functional foods targeted at different consumer segments.

Keywords: spirulina, consumption, factors, intention, consumers, behavior

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Authors: Mansoureh Zangiabadi, Shamil Velji, Rajendra Kelkar, Neal Wade, Volker Pickert

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The EU has set itself a long-term goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% of the 1990 levels by 2050 as set in the Energy Roadmap 2050. This paper reports on the European Union H2020 funded E-Lobster project which demonstrates tools and technologies, software and hardware in integrating the grid distribution, and the railway power systems with power electronics technologies (Smart Soft Open Point - sSOP) and local energy storage. In this context this paper describes the existing policies and regulatory frameworks of the energy market at European level with a special focus then at National level, on the countries where the members of the consortium are located, and where the demonstration activities will be implemented. By taking into account the disciplinary approach of E-Lobster, the main policy areas investigated includes electricity, energy market, energy efficiency, transport and smart cities. Energy storage will play a key role in enabling the EU to develop a low-carbon electricity system. In recent years, Energy Storage System (ESSs) are gaining importance due to emerging applications, especially electrification of the transportation sector and grid integration of volatile renewables. The need for storage systems led to ESS technologies performance improvements and significant price decline. This allows for opening a new market where ESSs can be a reliable and economical solution. One such emerging market for ESS is R+G management which will be investigated and demonstrated within E-Lobster project. The surplus of energy in one type of power system (e.g., due to metro braking) might be directly transferred to the other power system (or vice versa). However, it would usually happen at unfavourable instances when the recipient does not need additional power. Thus, the role of ESS is to enhance advantages coming from interconnection of the railway power systems and distribution grids by offering additional energy buffer. Consequently, the surplus/deficit of energy in, e.g. railway power systems, is not to be immediately transferred to/from the distribution grid but it could be stored and used when it is really needed. This will assure better energy management exchange between the railway power systems and distribution grids and lead to more efficient loss reduction. In this framework, to identify the existing policies and regulatory frameworks is crucial for the project activities and for the future development of business models for the E-Lobster solutions. The projections carried out by the European Commission, the Member States and stakeholders and their analysis indicated some trends, challenges, opportunities and structural changes needed to design the policy measures to provide the appropriate framework for investors. This study will be used as reference for the discussion in the envisaged workshops with stakeholders (DSOs and Transport Managers) in the E-Lobster project.

Keywords: light railway, electrical distribution network, Electrical Energy Storage, policy

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Authors: Patrick Weber, Daniel Gredig

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Background and Purpose: Research has well documented the impact of discrimination and micro-aggressions on the wellbeing of gay men and, especially, adolescents. For the prevention of homophobic behavior against gay adolescents, however, the focus has to shift on those who discriminate: For the design and tailoring of prevention and intervention, it is important to understand the factors responsible for homophobic behavior such as, for example, verbal abuse. Against this background, the present study aimed to assess homophobic – in terms of verbally abusive – behavior against gay people among high school students. Furthermore, it aimed to establish the predictors of the reported behavior by testing an explanatory model. This model posits that homophobic behavior is determined by negative attitudes and knowledge. These variables are supposed to be predicted by the acceptance of traditional gender roles, religiosity, orientation toward social dominance, contact with gay men, and by the perceived expectations of parents, friends and teachers. These social-cognitive variables in turn are assumed to be determined by students’ gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and the discussion of gay issues in class. Method: From August to October 2016, we visited 58 high school classes in 22 public schools in a county in Switzerland, and asked the 8th and 9th year students on three formal school levels to participate in survey about gender and gay issues. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire filled in during class. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (Generalized Least Square Estimates method). The sample included 897 students, 334 in the 8th and 563 in the 9th year, aged 12–17, 51.2% being female, 48.8% male, 50.3% with immigration background. Results: A proportion of 85.4% participants reported having made homophobic statements in the 12 month before survey, 4.7% often and very often. Analysis showed that respondents’ homophobic behavior was predicted directly by negative attitudes (β=0.20), as well as by the acceptance of traditional gender roles (β=0.06), religiosity (β=–0.07), contact with gay people (β=0.10), expectations of parents (β=–0.14) and friends (β=–0.19), gender (β=–0.22) and having a South-East-European or Western- and Middle-Asian immigration background (β=0.09). These variables were predicted, in turn, by gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and discussion of gay issues in class (GFI=0.995, AGFI=0.979, SRMR=0.0169, CMIN/df=1.199, p>0.213, adj. R2 =0.384). Conclusion: Findings evidence a high prevalence of homophobic behavior in the responding high school students. The tested explanatory model explained 38.4% of the assessed homophobic behavior. However, data did not found full support of the model. Knowledge did not turn out to be a predictor of behavior. Except for the perceived expectation of teachers and orientation toward social dominance, the social-cognitive variables were not fully mediated by attitudes. Equally, gender and immigration background predicted homophobic behavior directly. These findings demonstrate the importance of prevention and provide also leverage points for interventions against anti-gay bias in adolescents – also in social work settings as, for example, in school social work, open youth work or foster care.

Keywords: discrimination, high school students, gay men, predictors, Switzerland

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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