Search results for: operational scale
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7109

Search results for: operational scale

4109 Rapid Green Synthesis and Characterization of Silver Nanoparticles Using Eclipta prostrata Leaf Extract

Authors: Siva Prasad Peddi

Abstract:

Silver nanoparticles were successfully synthesized from silver nitrate through a rapid green synthesis method using Eclipta prostrata leaf extract as a reducing cum stabilizing agent. The experimental procedure was readily conducted at room temperature and pressure, and could be easily scaled up. The silver nanoparticles thus obtained were characterized using UV-Visible Spectroscopy (UV-VIS) which yielded an absorption peak at 416 nm. The biomolecules responsible for capping of the bio-reduced silver nanoparticles synthesized using plant extract were successfully identified through FTIR analysis. It was evinced through Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis that the silver nanoparticles were crystalline in nature and spherical in shape. The average size of the particles obtained using Scherrer’s formula was 27.4 nm. The adopted technique for silver nanoparticle synthesis is suitable for large-scale production.

Keywords: silver nanoparticles, green synthesis, characterization, Eclipta prostrata

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4108 A New Class of Conjugate Gradient Methods Based on a Modified Search Direction for Unconstrained Optimization

Authors: Belloufi Mohammed, Sellami Badreddine

Abstract:

Conjugate gradient methods have played a special role for solving large scale optimization problems due to the simplicity of their iteration, convergence properties and their low memory requirements. In this work, we propose a new class of conjugate gradient methods which ensures sufficient descent. Moreover, we propose a new search direction with the Wolfe line search technique for solving unconstrained optimization problems, a global convergence result for general functions is established provided that the line search satisfies the Wolfe conditions. Our numerical experiments indicate that our proposed methods are preferable and in general superior to the classical conjugate gradient methods in terms of efficiency and robustness.

Keywords: unconstrained optimization, conjugate gradient method, sufficient descent property, numerical comparisons

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4107 HyDUS Project; Seeking a Wonder Material for Hydrogen Storage

Authors: Monica Jong, Antonios Banos, Tom Scott, Chris Webster, David Fletcher

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Hydrogen, as a clean alternative to methane, is relatively easy to make, either from water using electrolysis or from methane using steam reformation. However, hydrogen is much trickier to store than methane, and without effective storage, it simply won’t pass muster as a suitable methane substitute. Physical storage of hydrogen is quite inefficient. Storing hydrogen as a compressed gas at pressures up to 900 times atmospheric is volumetrically inefficient and carries safety implications, whilst storing it as a liquid requires costly and constant cryogenic cooling to minus 253°C. This is where DU steps in as a possible solution. Across the periodic table, there are many different metallic elements that will react with hydrogen to form a chemical compound known as a hydride (or metal hydride). From a chemical perspective, the ‘king’ of the hydride forming metals is palladium because it offers the highest hydrogen storage volumetric capacity. However, this material is simply too expensive and scarce to be used in a scaled-up bulk hydrogen storage solution. Depleted Uranium is the second most volumetrically efficient hydride-forming metal after palladium. The UK has accrued a significant amount of DU because of manufacturing nuclear fuel for many decades, and that is currently without real commercial use. Uranium trihydride (UH3) contains three hydrogen atoms for every uranium atom and can chemically store hydrogen at ambient pressure and temperature at more than twice the density of pure liquid hydrogen for the same volume. To release the hydrogen from the hydride, all you do is heat it up. At temperatures above 250°C, the hydride starts to thermally decompose, releasing hydrogen as a gas and leaving the Uranium as a metal again. The reversible nature of this reaction allows the hydride to be formed and unformed again and again, enabling its use as a high-density hydrogen storage material which is already available in large quantities because of its stockpiling as a ‘waste’ by-product. Whilst the tritium storage credentials of Uranium have been rigorously proven at the laboratory scale and at the fusion demonstrator JET for over 30 years, there is a need to prove the concept for depleted uranium hydrogen storage (HyDUS) at scales towards that which is needed to flexibly supply our national power grid with energy. This is exactly the purpose of the HyDUS project, a collaborative venture involving EDF as the interested energy vendor, Urenco as the owner of the waste DU, and the University of Bristol with the UKAEA as the architects of the technology. The team will embark on building and proving the world’s first pilot scale demonstrator of bulk chemical hydrogen storage using depleted Uranium. Within 24 months, the team will attempt to prove both the technical and commercial viability of this technology as a longer duration energy storage solution for the UK. The HyDUS project seeks to enable a true by-product to wonder material story for depleted Uranium, demonstrating that we can think sustainably about unlocking the potential value trapped inside nuclear waste materials.

Keywords: hydrogen, long duration storage, storage, depleted uranium, HyDUS

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4106 Heat Loss Control in Stave Cooled Blast Furnace by Optimizing Gas Flow Pattern through Burden Distribution

Authors: Basant Kumar Singh, S. Subhachandhar, Vineet Ranjan Tripathi, Amit Kumar Singh, Uttam Singh, Santosh Kumar Lal

Abstract:

Productivity of Blast Furnace is largely impacted by fuel efficiency and controlling heat loss is one of the enabling parameters for achieving lower fuel rate. 'I' Blast Furnace is the latest and largest Blast Furnace of Tata Steel Jamshedpur with working volume of 3230 m³ and with rated capacity of 3.055 million tons per annum. Optimizing heat losses in Belly and Bosh zone remained major challenge for blast furnace operators after its commissioning. 'I' Blast has installed Cast Iron & Copper Staves cooling members where copper staves are installed in Belly, Bosh & Lower Stack whereas cast iron staves are installed in upper stack area. Stave cooled Blast Furnaces are prone to higher heat losses in Belly and Bosh region with an increase in coal injection rate as Bosh gas volume increases. Under these conditions, managing gas flow pattern through proper burden distribution, casting techniques & by maintaining desired raw material qualities are of utmost importance for sustaining high injection rates. This study details, the burden distribution control by Ore & Coke ratio adjustment at wall and center of Blast Furnace as the coal injection rates increased from 140 kg/thm to 210 kg/thm. Control of blowing parameters, casting philosophy, specification for raw materials & devising operational practice for controlling heat losses is also elaborated with the model that is used to visualize heat loss pattern in different zones of Blast Furnace.

Keywords: blast furnace, staves, gas flow pattern, belly/bosh heat losses, ore/coke ratio, blowing parameters, casting, operation practice

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4105 Heavy Sulphide Material Characterization of Grasberg Block Cave Mine, Mimika, Papua: Implication for Tunnel Development and Mill Issue

Authors: Cahya Wimar Wicaksono, Reynara Davin Chen, Alvian Kristianto Santoso

Abstract:

Grasberg Cu-Au ore deposit as one of the biggest porphyry deposits located in Papua Province, Indonesia produced by several intrusion that restricted by Heavy Sulphide Zone (HSZ) in peripheral. HSZ is the rock that becomes the contact between Grassberg Igneous Complex (GIC) with sedimentary and igneous rock outside, which is rich in sulphide minerals such as pyrite ± pyrrhotite. This research is to obtain the characteristic of HSZ based on geotechnical, geochemical and mineralogy aspect and those implication for daily mining operational activities. Method used in this research are geological and alteration mapping, core logging, FAA (Fire Assay Analysis), AAS (Atomic absorption spectroscopy), RQD (Rock Quality Designation) and rock water content. Data generated from methods among RQD data, mineral composition and grade, lithological and structural geology distribution in research area. The mapping data show that HSZ material characteristics divided into three type based on rocks association, there are near igneous rocks, sedimentary rocks and on HSZ area. And also divided based on its location, north and south part of research area. HSZ material characteristic consist of rock which rich of pyrite ± pyrrhotite, and RQD range valued about 25%-100%. Pyrite ± pyrrhotite which outcropped will react with H₂O and O₂ resulting acid that generates corrosive effect on steel wire and rockbolt. Whereas, pyrite precipitation proses in HSZ forming combustible H₂S gas which is harmful during blasting activities. Furthermore, the impact of H₂S gas in blasting activities is forming poison gas SO₂. Although HSZ high grade Cu-Au, however those high grade Cu-Au rich in sulphide components which is affected in flotation milling process. Pyrite ± pyrrhotite in HSZ will chemically react with Cu-Au that will settle in milling process instead of floating.

Keywords: combustible, corrosive, heavy sulphide zone, pyrite ± pyrrhotite

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4104 Review of Various Designs and Development in Hydropower Turbines

Authors: Fatemeh Behrouzi, Adi Maimun, Mehdi Nakisa

Abstract:

The growth of population, rising fossil fuel prices which the fossil fuels are limited and decreased day by day, pollution problem due to use of fossil fuels and electrical demand are important role to encourage of using the green energy and renewable technologies. Among different renewable energy technologies, hydro power generation (large and small scale) is the prime choice in terms of contribution to the world's electricity generation by using water current turbines. Nowadays, researchers focus on design and development of different kind of turbines to capture hydro-power electricity generation as clean and reliable energy. This article is review about statues of water current turbines carried out to generate electricity from hydro-kinetic energy especially places that they do not have electricity, but they have access to the current water.

Keywords: water current turbine, renewable energy, hydro-power, mechanic

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4103 Spatial and Temporal Evaluations of Disinfection By-Products Formation in Coastal City Distribution Systems of Turkey

Authors: Vedat Uyak

Abstract:

Seasonal variations of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) concentrations were investigated within three distribution systems of a coastal city of Istanbul, Turkey. Moreover, total trihalomethanes and other organics concentration were also analyzed. The investigation was based on an intensive 16 month (2009-2010) sampling program, undertaken during the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. Four THM (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), and nine HAA (the most commonly occurring one being dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and trichloroacetic acid (TCAA); other compounds are monochloroacetic acid (MCAA), monobromoacetic acid (MBAA), dibromoacetic acid (DBAA), tribromoacetic acid (TBAA), bromochloroacetic acid (BCAA), bromodichloroacetic acid (BDCAA) and chlorodibromoacetic acid (CDBAA)) species and other water quality and operational parameters were monitored at points along the distribution system between the treatment plant and the system’s extremity. The effects of coastal water sources, seasonal variation and spatial variation were examined. The results showed that THMs and HAAs concentrations vary significantly between treated waters and water at the distribution networks. When water temperature exceeds 26°C in summer, the THMs and HAAs levels are 0.8 – 1.1, and 0.4 – 0.9 times higher than treated water, respectively. While when water temperature is below 12°C in the winter, the measured THMs and HAAs concentrations at the system’s extremity were very rarely higher than 100 μg/L, and 60 μg/L, respectively. The highest THM concentrations occurred in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 92 μg/L. Moreover, the lowest THM levels were observed in the Omerli distribution network, with a mean concentration of 7 μg/L. For HAA levels, the maximum concentrations again were observed in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 57 μg/l. High spatial and seasonal variation of disinfection by-products in the drinking water of Istanbul was attributed of illegal wastewater discharges to water supplies of Istanbul city.

Keywords: disinfection byproducts, drinking water, trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, seasonal variation

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4102 Leveraging Remote Assessments and Central Raters to Optimize Data Quality in Rare Neurodevelopmental Disorders Clinical Trials

Authors: Pamela Ventola, Laurel Bales, Sara Florczyk

Abstract:

Background: Fully remote or hybrid administration of clinical outcome measures in rare neurodevelopmental disorders trials is increasing due to the ongoing pandemic and recognition that remote assessments reduce the burden on families. Many assessments in rare neurodevelopmental disorders trials are complex; however, remote/hybrid trials readily allow for the use of centralized raters to administer and score the scales. The use of centralized raters has many benefits, including reducing site burden; however, a specific impact on data quality has not yet been determined. Purpose: The current study has two aims: a) evaluate differences in data quality between administration of a standardized clinical interview completed by centralized raters compared to those completed by site raters and b) evaluate improvement in accuracy of scoring standardized developmental assessments when scored centrally compared to when scored by site raters. Methods: For aim 1, the Vineland-3, a widely used measure of adaptive functioning, was administered by site raters (n= 52) participating in one of four rare disease trials. The measure was also administered as part of two additional trials that utilized central raters (n=7). Each rater completed a comprehensive training program on the assessment. Following completion of the training, each clinician completed a Vineland-3 with a mock caregiver. Administrations were recorded and reviewed by a neuropsychologist for administration and scoring accuracy. Raters were able to certify for the trials after demonstrating an accurate administration of the scale. For site raters, 25% of each rater’s in-study administrations were reviewed by a neuropsychologist for accuracy of administration and scoring. For central raters, the first two administrations and every 10th administration were reviewed. Aim 2 evaluated the added benefit of centralized scoring on the accuracy of scoring of the Bayley-3, a comprehensive developmental assessment widely used in rare neurodevelopmental disorders trials. Bayley-3 administrations across four rare disease trials were centrally scored. For all administrations, the site rater who administered the Bayley-3 scored the scale, and a centralized rater reviewed the video recordings of the administrations and also scored the scales to confirm accuracy. Results: For aim 1, site raters completed 138 Vineland-3 administrations. Of the138 administrations, 53 administrations were reviewed by a neuropsychologist. Four of the administrations had errors that compromised the validity of the assessment. The central raters completed 180 Vineland-3 administrations, 38 administrations were reviewed, and none had significant errors. For aim 2, 68 administrations of the Bayley-3 were reviewed and scored by both a site rater and a centralized rater. Of these administrations, 25 had errors in scoring that were corrected by the central rater. Conclusion: In rare neurodevelopmental disorders trials, sample sizes are often small, so data quality is critical. The use of central raters inherently decreases site burden, but it also decreases rater variance, as illustrated by the small team of central raters (n=7) needed to conduct all of the assessments (n=180) in these trials compared to the number of site raters (n=53) required for even fewer assessments (n=138). In addition, the use of central raters dramatically improves the quality of scoring the assessments.

Keywords: neurodevelopmental disorders, clinical trials, rare disease, central raters, remote trials, decentralized trials

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4101 Planar Plasmonic Terahertz Waveguides for Sensor Applications

Authors: Maidul Islam, Dibakar Roy Chowdhury, Gagan Kumar

Abstract:

We investigate sensing capabilities of a planar plasmonic THz waveguide. The waveguide is comprised of one dimensional array of periodically arranged sub wavelength scale corrugations in the form of rectangular dimples in order to ensure the plasmonic response. The THz waveguide transmission is observed for polyimide (as thin film) substance filling the dimples. The refractive index of the polyimide film is varied to examine various sensing parameters such as frequency shift, sensitivity and Figure of Merit (FoM) of the fundamental plasmonic resonance supported by the waveguide. In efforts to improve sensing characteristics, we also examine sensing capabilities of a plasmonic waveguide having V shaped corrugations and compare results with that of rectangular dimples. The proposed study could be significant in developing new terahertz sensors with improved sensitivity utilizing the plasmonic waveguides.

Keywords: plasmonics, sensors, sub-wavelength structures, terahertz

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4100 Application of Response Surface Methodology in Optimizing Chitosan-Argan Nutshell Beads for Radioactive Wastewater Treatment

Authors: F. F. Zahra, E. G. Touria, Y. Samia, M. Ahmed, H. Hasna, B. M. Latifa

Abstract:

The presence of radioactive contaminants in wastewater poses a significant environmental and health risk, necessitating effective treatment solutions. This study investigates the optimization of chitosan-Argan nutshell beads for the removal of radioactive elements from wastewater, utilizing Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to enhance the treatment efficiency. Chitosan, known for its biocompatibility and adsorption properties, was combined with Argan nutshell powder to form composite beads. These beads were then evaluated for their capacity to remove radioactive contaminants from synthetic wastewater. The Box-Behnken design (BBD) under RSM was employed to analyze the influence of key operational parameters, including initial contaminant concentration, pH, bead dosage, and contact time, on the removal efficiency. Experimental results indicated that all tested parameters significantly affected the removal efficiency, with initial contaminant concentration and pH showing the most substantial impact. The optimized conditions, as determined by RSM, were found to be an initial contaminant concentration of 50 mg/L, a pH of 6, a bead dosage of 0.5 g/L, and a contact time of 120 minutes. Under these conditions, the removal efficiency reached up to 95%, demonstrating the potential of chitosan-Argan nutshell beads as a viable solution for radioactive wastewater treatment. Furthermore, the adsorption process was characterized by fitting the experimental data to various isotherm and kinetic models. The adsorption isotherms conformed well to the Langmuir model, indicating monolayer adsorption, while the kinetic data were best described by the pseudo-second-order model, suggesting chemisorption as the primary mechanism. This study highlights the efficacy of chitosan-Argan nutshell beads in removing radioactive contaminants from wastewater and underscores the importance of optimizing treatment parameters using RSM. The findings provide a foundation for developing cost-effective and environmentally friendly treatment technologies for radioactive wastewater.

Keywords: adsorption, argan nutshell, beads, chitosan, mechanism, optimization, radioactive wastewater, response surface methodology

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4099 Energy-Level Structure of a Confined Electron-Positron Pair in Nanostructure

Authors: Tokuei Sako, Paul-Antoine Hervieux

Abstract:

The energy-level structure of a pair of electron and positron confined in a quasi-one-dimensional nano-scale potential well has been investigated focusing on its trend in the small limit of confinement strength ω, namely, the Wigner molecular regime. An anisotropic Gaussian-type basis functions supplemented by high angular momentum functions as large as l = 19 has been used to obtain reliable full configuration interaction (FCI) wave functions. The resultant energy spectrum shows a band structure characterized by ω for the large ω regime whereas for the small ω regime it shows an energy-level pattern dominated by excitation into the in-phase motion of the two particles. The observed trend has been rationalized on the basis of the nodal patterns of the FCI wave functions.

Keywords: confined systems, positron, wave function, Wigner molecule, quantum dots

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4098 A Generation Outside: Afghan Refugees in Greece 2003-2016

Authors: Kristina Colovic, Mari Janikian, Nikolaos Takis, Fotini-Sonia Apergi

Abstract:

A considerable number of Afghan asylum seekers in Greece are still waiting for answers about their future and status for personal, social and societal advancement. Most have been trapped in a stalemate of continuously postponed or temporarily progressed levels of integration into the EU/Greek process of asylum. Limited quantitative research exists investigating the psychological effects of long-term displacement among Afghans refugees in Greece. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that are associated with and predict psychological distress symptoms among this population. Data from a sample of native Afghan nationals (N > 70) living in Greece for approximately the last ten years will be collected from May to July 2016. Criteria for participation include the following: being 18 years of age or older, and emigration from Afghanistan to Greece from 2003 onwards (i.e., long-term refugees or part of the 'old system of asylum'). Snowball sampling will be used to recruit participants, as this is considered the most effective option when attempting to study refugee populations. Participants will complete self-report questionnaires, consisting of the Afghan Symptom Checklist (ASCL), a culturally validated measure of psychological distress, the World Health Organization Quality of Life scale (WHOQOL-BREF), an adapted version of the Comprehensive Trauma Inventory-104 (CTI-104), and a modified Psychological Acculturation Scale. All instruments will be translated in Greek, through the use of forward- and back-translations by bilingual speakers of English and Greek, following WHO guidelines. A pilot study with 5 Afghan participants will take place to check for discrepancies in understanding and for further adapting the instruments as needed. Demographic data, including age, gender, year of arrival to Greece and current asylum status will be explored. Three different types of analyses (descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, and multivariate linear regression) will be used in this study. Descriptive findings for respondent demographics, psychological distress symptoms, traumatic life events and quality of life will be reported. Zero-order correlations will assess the interrelationships among demographic, traumatic life events, psychological distress, and quality of life variables. Lastly, a multivariate linear regression model will be estimated. The findings from the study will contribute to understanding the determinants of acculturation, distress and trauma on daily functioning for Afghans in Greece. The main implications of the current study will be to advocate for capacity building and empower communities through effective program evaluation and design for mental health services for all refugee populations in Greece.

Keywords: Afghan refugees, evaluation, Greece, mental health, quality of life

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4097 Threat Modeling Methodology for Supporting Industrial Control Systems Device Manufacturers and System Integrators

Authors: Raluca Ana Maria Viziteu, Anna Prudnikova

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Industrial control systems (ICS) have received much attention in recent years due to the convergence of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) that has increased the interdependence of safety and security issues to be considered. These issues require ICS-tailored solutions. That led to the need to creation of a methodology for supporting ICS device manufacturers and system integrators in carrying out threat modeling of embedded ICS devices in a way that guarantees the quality of the identified threats and minimizes subjectivity in the threat identification process. To research, the possibility of creating such a methodology, a set of existing standards, regulations, papers, and publications related to threat modeling in the ICS sector and other sectors was reviewed to identify various existing methodologies and methods used in threat modeling. Furthermore, the most popular ones were tested in an exploratory phase on a specific PLC device. The outcome of this exploratory phase has been used as a basis for defining specific characteristics of ICS embedded devices and their deployment scenarios, identifying the factors that introduce subjectivity in the threat modeling process of such devices, and defining metrics for evaluating the minimum quality requirements of identified threats associated to the deployment of the devices in existing infrastructures. Furthermore, the threat modeling methodology was created based on the previous steps' results. The usability of the methodology was evaluated through a set of standardized threat modeling requirements and a standardized comparison method for threat modeling methodologies. The outcomes of these verification methods confirm that the methodology is effective. The full paper includes the outcome of research on different threat modeling methodologies that can be used in OT, their comparison, and the results of implementing each of them in practice on a PLC device. This research is further used to build a threat modeling methodology tailored to OT environments; a detailed description is included. Moreover, the paper includes results of the evaluation of created methodology based on a set of parameters specifically created to rate threat modeling methodologies.

Keywords: device manufacturers, embedded devices, industrial control systems, threat modeling

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4096 Bimetallic MOFs Based Membrane for the Removal of Heavy Metal Ions from the Industrial Wastewater

Authors: Muhammad Umar Mushtaq, Muhammad Bilal Khan Niazi, Nouman Ahmad, Dooa Arif

Abstract:

Apart from organic dyes, heavy metals such as Pb, Ni, Cr, and Cu are present in textile effluent and pose a threat to humans and the environment. Many studies on removing heavy metallic ions from textile wastewater have been conducted in recent decades using metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). In this study new polyether sulfone ultrafiltration membrane, modified with Cu/Co and Cu/Zn-based bimetal-organic frameworks (MOFs), was produced. Phase inversion was used to produce the membrane, and atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were used to characterize it. The bimetallic MOFs-based membrane structure is complex and can be comprehended using characterization techniques. The bimetallic MOF-based filtration membranes are designed to selectively adsorb specific contaminants while allowing the passage of water molecules, improving the ultrafiltration efficiency. MOFs' adsorption capacity and selectivity are enhanced by functionalizing them with particular chemical groups or incorporating them into composite membranes with other materials, such as polymers. The morphology and performance of the bimetallic MOF-based membrane were investigated regarding pure water flux and metal ion rejection. The advantages of developed bimetallic MOFs based membranes for wastewater treatment include enhanced adsorption capacity because of the presence of two metals in their structure, which provides additional binding sites for contaminants, leading to a higher adsorption capacity and more efficient removal of pollutants from wastewater. Based on the experimental findings, bimetallic MOF-based membranes are more capable of rejecting metal ions from industrial wastewater than conventional membranes that have already been developed. Furthermore, the difficulties associated with operational parameters, including pressure gradients and velocity profiles, are simulated using Ansys Fluent software. The simulation results obtained for the operating parameters are in complete agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: bimetallic MOFs, heavy metal ions, industrial wastewater treatment, ultrafiltration.

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4095 Understanding the Productivity Effect on Industrial Management: The Portuguese Wood Furniture Industry Case Study

Authors: Jonas A. R. H. Lima, Maria Antonia Carravilla

Abstract:

As productivity concepts are widely related to industrial savings, it is becoming particularly important in a more and more competitive world, to really understand how productivity can be well used in industrial management techniques. Nowadays, consumers are no more willing to pay for mistakes and inefficiencies. Therefore, one way for companies to stay competitive is to control and increase their productivity. This study aims to define clearly the productivity concept, understand how a company can affect productivity, and, if possible, identify the relation between each identified productivity factor. This will help managers, by clarifying the main issues behind productivity concepts and proposing a methodology to measure, control and increase productivity. The main questions to be answered are: what is the importance of productivity for the Portuguese Wood Furniture Industry? Is it possible to control productivity internally, or is it a phenomenon external to companies, hard or even impossible to control? How to understand, control and adjust productivity performance? How to make productivity to become one main asset for maximizing the use of the available resources? This essay will follow a constructive approach mostly based in the research hypothesis mentioned above. For that, a literature review is being done to find the main conceptual frameworks and empirical studies that already exist, and by doing so, highlight eventual knowledge or conflicting research to be addressed in this work. We expect to build theoretical explanations and test theoretical predictions from participants understandings and own experiences, by elaborating field surveys and interviews, to select adjusted productivity indicators and analyze the productivity evolution according the adjustments on other variables. Its intended the conduction of an exploratory work that can simultaneous clarify productivity concepts, objectives, and define frameworks. This investigation intends to migrate from merely academic concepts to a daily basis operational reality of the companies from the Portuguese Wood Furniture Industry highlighting productivity increased importance within modern engineering and industrial management. The ambition is to clarify, systemize and develop a management tool that may not only control but positively influence the way resources are used.

Keywords: industrial management, motivation, productivity, performance indicators, reward management, wood furniture industry

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4094 Sparse Representation Based Spatiotemporal Fusion Employing Additional Image Pairs to Improve Dictionary Training

Authors: Dacheng Li, Bo Huang, Qinjin Han, Ming Li

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Remotely sensed imagery with the high spatial and temporal characteristics, which it is hard to acquire under the current land observation satellites, has been considered as a key factor for monitoring environmental changes over both global and local scales. On a basis of the limited high spatial-resolution observations, challenged studies called spatiotemporal fusion have been developed for generating high spatiotemporal images through employing other auxiliary low spatial-resolution data while with high-frequency observations. However, a majority of spatiotemporal fusion approaches yield to satisfactory assumption, empirical but unstable parameters, low accuracy or inefficient performance. Although the spatiotemporal fusion methodology via sparse representation theory has advantage in capturing reflectance changes, stability and execution efficiency (even more efficient when overcomplete dictionaries have been pre-trained), the retrieval of high-accuracy dictionary and its response to fusion results are still pending issues. In this paper, we employ additional image pairs (here each image-pair includes a Landsat Operational Land Imager and a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer acquisitions covering the partial area of Baotou, China) only into the coupled dictionary training process based on K-SVD (K-means Singular Value Decomposition) algorithm, and attempt to improve the fusion results of two existing sparse representation based fusion models (respectively utilizing one and two available image-pair). The results show that more eligible image pairs are probably related to a more accurate overcomplete dictionary, which generally indicates a better image representation, and is then contribute to an effective fusion performance in case that the added image-pair has similar seasonal aspects and image spatial structure features to the original image-pair. It is, therefore, reasonable to construct multi-dictionary training pattern for generating a series of high spatial resolution images based on limited acquisitions.

Keywords: spatiotemporal fusion, sparse representation, K-SVD algorithm, dictionary learning

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4093 Risk Management in Islamic Micro Finance Credit System for Poverty Alleviation from Qualitative Perspective

Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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4092 Development and Testing of an Instrument to Measure Beliefs about Cervical Cancer Screening among Women in Botswana

Authors: Ditsapelo M. McFarland

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Background: Despite the availability of the Pap smear services in urban areas in Botswana, most women in such areas do not seem to screen regular for prevention of the cervical cancer disease. Reasons for non-use of the available Pap smear services are not well understood. Beliefs about cancer may influence participation in cancer screening in these women. The purpose of this study was to develop an instrument to measure beliefs about cervical cancer and Pap smear screening among Black women in Botswana, and evaluate the psychometric properties of the instrument. Significance: Instruments that are designed to measure beliefs about cervical cancer and screening among black women in Botswana, as well as in the surrounding region, are presently not available. Valid and reliable instruments are needed for exploration of the women’s beliefs about cervical cancer. Conceptual Framework: The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided a conceptual framework for the study. Methodology: The study was done in four phases: Phase 1: item generation: 15 items were generated from literature review and qualitative data for each of four conceptually defined HBM constructs: Perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers (Version 1). Phase 2: content validity: Four experts who were advanced practice nurses of African descent and were familiar with the content and the HBM evaluated the content. Experts rated the items on a 4-point Likert scale ranging from: 1=not relevant, 2=somewhat relevant, 3=relevant and 4=very relevant. Fifty-five items were retained for instrument development: perceived susceptibility - 11, severity - 14, benefits - 15 and barriers - 15, all measuring on a 4-point Likert scale ranging from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (4). (Version 2). Phase 3: pilot testing: The instrument was pilot tested on a convenient sample of 30 women in Botswana and revised as needed. Phase 4: reliability: the revised instrument (Version 3) was submitted to a larger sample of women in Botswana (n=300) for reliability testing. The sample included women who were Batswana by birth and decent, were aged 30 years and above and could complete an English questionnaire. Data were collected with the assistance of trained research assistants. Major findings: confirmatory factor analysis of the 55 items found that a number of items did not adequately load in a four-factor solution. Items that exhibited reasonable reliability and had low frequency of missing values (n=36) were retained: perceived barriers (14 items), perceived benefits (8 items), perceived severity (4 items), and perceived susceptibility (10 items). confirmatory factor analysis (principle components) for a four factor solution using varimax rotation demonstrated that these four factors explained 43% of the variation in these 36 items. Conclusion: reliability analysis using Cronbach’s Alpha gave generally satisfactory results with values from 0.53 to 0.89.

Keywords: cervical cancer, factor analysis, psychometric evaluation, varimax rotation

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4091 Predictors of Motor and Cognitive Domains of Functional Performance after Rehabilitation of Individuals with Acute Stroke

Authors: A. F. Jaber, E. Dean, M. Liu, J. He, D. Sabata, J. Radel

Abstract:

Background: Stroke is a serious health care concern and a major cause of disability in the United States. This condition impacts the individual’s functional ability to perform daily activities. Predicting functional performance of people with stroke assists health care professionals in optimizing the delivery of health services to the affected individuals. The purpose of this study was to identify significant predictors of Motor FIM and of Cognitive FIM subscores among individuals with stroke after discharge from inpatient rehabilitation (typically 4-6 weeks after stroke onset). A second purpose is to explore the relation among personal characteristics, health status, and functional performance of daily activities within 2 weeks of stroke onset. Methods: This study used a retrospective chart review to conduct a secondary analysis of data obtained from the Healthcare Enterprise Repository for Ontological Narration (HERON) database. The HERON database integrates de-identified clinical data from seven different regional sources including hospital electronic medical record systems of the University of Kansas Health System. The initial HERON data extract encompassed 1192 records and the final sample consisted of 207 participants who were mostly white (74%) males (55%) with a diagnosis of ischemic stroke (77%). The outcome measures collected from HERON included performance scores on the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). The data analysis plan included descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and Stepwise regression analysis. Results: significant predictors of discharge Motor FIM subscores included age, baseline Motor FIM subscores, discharge NIHSS scores, and comorbid electrolyte disorder (R2 = 0.57, p <0.026). Significant predictors of discharge Cognitive FIM subscores were age, baseline cognitive FIM subscores, client cooperative behavior, comorbid obesity, and the total number of comorbidities (R2 = 0.67, p <0.020). Functional performance on admission was significantly associated with age (p < 0.01), stroke severity (p < 0.01), and length of hospital stay (p < 0.05). Conclusions: our findings show that younger age, good motor and cognitive abilities on admission, mild stroke severity, fewer comorbidities, and positive client attitude all predict favorable functional outcomes after inpatient stroke rehabilitation. This study provides health care professionals with evidence to evaluate predictors of favorable functional outcomes early at stroke rehabilitation, to tailor individualized interventions based on their client’s anticipated prognosis, and to educate clients about the benefits of making lifestyle changes to improve their anticipated rate of functional recovery.

Keywords: functional performance, predictors, stroke, recovery

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4090 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Autism Attitude and Skills

Authors: Sara Fayez Fawzy Mikhael

Abstract:

Inclusive education services for students with autism are still developing in Thailand. Although many more children with intellectual disabilities have been attending school since the Thai government enacted the Education for Persons with Disabilities Act in 2008, facilities for students with disabilities and their families are generally inadequate. This comprehensive study used the Attitudes and Preparedness for Teaching Students with Autism Scale (APTSAS) to examine the attitudes and preparedness of 110, elementary teachers in teaching students with autism in the general education setting. Descriptive statistical analyzes showed that the most important factor in the formation of a negative image of teachers with autism is student attitudes. Most teachers also stated that their pre-service training did not prepare them to meet the needs of children with special needs who cannot speak. The study is important and provides directions for improving non-formal teacher education in Thailand.

Keywords: attitude, autism, teachers, thailandsports activates, movement skills, motor skills

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4089 Nursing Workers’ Capacity of Resilience at a Psychiatric Hospital in Brazil

Authors: Cheila Cristina Leonardo Oliveira Gaioli, Fernanda Ludmilla Rossi Rocha, Sandra Cristina Pillon

Abstract:

Resilience is a psychological process that facilitates the maintenance of health, developed in response to numerous existing stressors in daily life. Furthermore, resilience can be described as the ability which allows an individual or group to hold up well before unfavorable situations. This study aimed to identify nursing workers’ resilience at a psychiatric hospital in Brazil. This is an exploratory research with quantitative data approach. The sample consisted of 56 workers, using the Resilience Scale. Of the 56 subjects, 45 (80.4%) were women; 22 (39.2%) were 20- to 40-years-old and 30 (53.6%) were 41- to 60-years-old; 11 (19.6%) were nurses and 45 (80.4%) were technicians or nursing assistants. The results also showed that 50% of subjects showed a high resilience degree and 42.9% an average resilience degree. Thus, it was found that workers seek to develop protective factors in coping with a work environment that does not value the individual subjectivity and does not allow professional development, discouraging workers.

Keywords: health promotion, nursing, occupational health, resilience

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4088 A Study on the Wind Energy Produced in the Building Skin Using Piezoelectricity

Authors: Sara Mota Carmo

Abstract:

Nowadays, there is an increasing demand for buildings to be energetically autonomous through energy generation systems from renewable sources, according to the concept of a net zero energy building (NZEB). In this sense, the present study aims to study the integration of wind energy through piezoelectricity applied to the building skin. As a methodology, a reduced-scale prototype of a building was developed and tested in a wind tunnel, with the four façades monitored by recording the energy produced by each. The applied wind intensities varied between 2m/s and 8m/s and the four façades were compared with each other regarding the energy produced according to the intensity of wind and position in the wind. The results obtained concluded that it was not a sufficient system to generate sources to cover family residential buildings' energy needs. However, piezoelectricity is expanding and can be a promising path for a wind energy system in architecture as a complement to other renewable energy sources.

Keywords: adaptative building skin, kinetic façade, wind energy in architecture, NZEB

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4087 Application of Mathematical Sciences to Farm Management

Authors: Fahad Suleiman

Abstract:

Agriculture has been the mainstay of the nation’s economy in Nigeria. It provides food for the ever rapidly increasing population and raw materials for the industries. People especially the rural dwellers are gainfully employed on their crop farms and small-scale livestock farms for income earning. In farming, availability of funds and time management are one of the major factors that influence the system of farming in Nigeria in which mathematical science knowledge was highly required in order for farms to be managed effectively. Farmers often applied mathematics, almost every day for a variety of tasks, ranging from measuring and weighing, to land marking. This paper, therefore, explores some of the ways math is used in farming. For instance, farmers use arithmetic variety of farm activities such as seed planting, harvesting crop, cultivation and mulching. It is also important in helping farmers to know how much their livestock weighs, how much milk their cows produce and crop yield per acres, among others.

Keywords: agriculture, application, economic, farming, mathematics

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4086 Emotional Intelligence: Key to Job Satisfaction - A Case Study

Authors: Arpita Sabath, Jytoika Samuel

Abstract:

Emotional Intelligence is conceptualized as a confluence of learned abilities resulting in wise behavior, high achievement and mental health. This case study is done on IT Sector employees of CAREERNET consultancy at Bangalore. Thus the present study intends to find out the difference in different dimensions of El and Js Scales among male and female employees and the existing relationship between emotional intelligence and job satisfaction for the beginner age group of employees (25 yrs - 40 yrs) in order to enhance the employees productivity level in the present scenario of recession in employment. It is observed that all promotions and increment are achieved at these 25 yrs - 40 yrs age group employees. Therefore, the sample is selected randomly and grouped. Survey method with the administration of Emotional Intelligence Scale and opinionScedule is used. The findings of the study has revealed that there is a positive relationship between emotional intelligence and performance excellence. The study is concluded with a remark that the relevance of this study should be followed by the administrative body of IT sectors to motivate them and to get more productive work from their employees

Keywords: emotional intelligence, job satisfaction, organisational behavior, IT sector

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4085 The Importance of Development Evaluation to Preterm Children in Remote Area

Authors: Chung-Yuan Wang, Min Hsu, Bo-Ya Juan, Hsiv Ching Lin, Hsveh Min Lin, Hsiu-Fang Yeh

Abstract:

The success of Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) system attracts widespread praise from the international society. However, the availability of medical care in a emote area is limited. Without the convenient public transportation system and mature social welfare policy, these people are difficult to regain their health and prevent disability. Preterm children have more risk to get development delay. Preterm children in a remote area have the human right to get rehabilitation resources as those in the city area. Therefore, the aim of this study was to show the importance of development screening to preterm children in a remote area and a tract the government to notice the issue. In Pingtung, children who are suspected development delay would be suggested to take a skillful screening evaluation in our hospital. Those preterm children (within 1-year-old) visited our pediatric clinic would also be referred to take the development evaluation. After the physiatrist’s systemic evaluation, the subjects would be scheduled to take the development evaluation. Gross motor, fine motor, speech comprehension/expression and mental study were included. The evaluation was in-charged by a physical therapist, occupational therapy, speech therapist and pediatric psychologist. The tools were Peabody developmental scale, Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (Bayley-III) and Wechsler Preschool & Primary Scale of Intelligence-Revised (WPPSI-R). In 2013, 459 children received the service in our hospital. Among these children, fifty-seven were noted with preterm baby history (gestation within 37 weeks). Thirty-six of these preterm children, who had never receive development evaluation, were included in this study. Thirty-six subjects (twenty-six male and ten female) were included. Nineteen subjects were found development delay. Six subjects were found suspected development delay. In gross motor, six subjects were development delay and eight were suspected development delay. In fine motor, five subjects were development delay and three were suspected development delay. In speech, sixteen subjects were development delay and six were suspected development delay. In our study, through the provision of development evaluation service, 72.2% preterm baby were found their development delay or suspected delay. They need further early intervention rehabilitation service. We made their parents realize that when development delay was recognized at the early stage, they are often reversible. No only the patients but also their families were improved their health status. The number of the subjects was limited in our study. Further study might be needed. Compared with 770 physical therapist (PT) and 370 occupational therapy (OT) in Taipei, there are only 108 PT and 54 OT in Pingtung. Further, there are much fewer therapists working on the field of pediatric rehabilitation. Living healthy is a human's right, no matter where does he live. For those development delay children in remote area, particularly preterm children, early detection, and early intervention rehabilitation service could play an important role in decreasing their disability and improving their quality of life. Through this study, we suggest the government to add more national resources on the development evaluation to preterm children in a remote area.

Keywords: development, early intervention, preterm children, rehabilitation

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4084 A Descriptive Study of Self-Compassion in Polytechnic Students in Indonesia

Authors: Emma Dwi Ariyani, Dini Hadiani

Abstract:

This article reports the descriptive analysis of self-compassion in polytechnic students. It has been long believed that self-compassion can improve students’ motivation in completing their studies. This research was conducted with the aim to see the degree of self-compassion in polytechnic students in Indonesia by using Neff's Self-Compassion Scale (short form) measurement tool consisting of 12 items. The research method used was descriptive study with survey technique on 255 students. The results showed that 78% of students had low self-compassion and 22% had high self-compassion. This revealed that polytechnic students still criticize themselves harshly, make a poor judgment and bad self-appraisal, and they also cannot accept their imperfection and consider it as a self-judgment. The students also tend to think that they are the only ones that experience failure and suffering. This can lead to a sense of isolation (self-isolation). Furthermore, the students are often too concerned with aspects that are not liked both in themselves and in life (over-identification). Improving the students’ level of self-compassion can be done by building an educational climate that not only criticizes the students but provides feedback as well. This should focus on the students’ real behavior rather than the students’ general character.

Keywords: descriptive study, polytechnic students, Indonesia, self-compassion

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4083 Numerical Investigation of Aerodynamic Analysis on Passenger Vehicle

Authors: Cafer Görkem Pınar, İlker Coşar, Serkan Uzun, Atahan Çelebi, Mehmet Ali Ersoy, Ali Pınarbaşı

Abstract:

In this study, it was numerically investigated that a 1:1 scale model of the Renault Clio MK4 SW brand vehicle aerodynamic analysis was performed in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package program of ANSYS CFX 2021 R1 under steady, subsonic, and 3-D conditions. The model of vehicle used for the analysis was made independent of the number of mesh elements, and the k-epsilon turbulence model was applied during the analysis. Results were interpreted as streamlines, pressure gradient, and turbulent kinetic energy contours around the vehicle at 50 km/h and 100 km/h speeds. In addition, the validity of the analysis was decided by comparing the drag coefficient of the vehicle with the values in the literature. As a result, the pressure gradient contours of the taillight of the Renault Clio MK4 SW vehicle were examined, and the behavior of the total force at speeds of 50 km/h and 100 km/h was interpreted.

Keywords: CFD, k-epsilon, aerodynamics, drag coefficient, taillight

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4082 Pricing Effects on Equitable Distribution of Forest Products and Livelihood Improvement in Nepalese Community Forestry

Authors: Laxuman Thakuri

Abstract:

Despite the large number of in-depth case studies focused on policy analysis, institutional arrangement, and collective action of common property resource management; how the local institutions take the pricing decision of forest products in community forest management and what kinds of effects produce it, the answers of these questions are largely silent among the policy-makers and researchers alike. The study examined how the local institutions take the pricing decision of forest products in the lowland community forestry of Nepal and how the decisions affect to equitable distribution of benefits and livelihood improvement which are also objectives of Nepalese community forestry. The study assumes that forest products pricing decisions have multiple effects on equitable distribution and livelihood improvement in the areas having heterogeneous socio-economic conditions. The dissertation was carried out at four community forests of lowland, Nepal that has characteristics of high value species, matured-experience of community forest management and better record-keeping system of forest products production, pricing and distribution. The questionnaire survey, individual to group discussions and direct field observation were applied for data collection from the field, and Lorenz curve, gini-coefficient, χ²-text, and SWOT (Strong, Weak, Opportunity, and Threat) analysis were performed for data analysis and results interpretation. The dissertation demonstrates that the low pricing strategy of high-value forest products was supposed crucial to increase the access of socio-economically weak households, and to and control over the important forest products such as timber, but found counter productive as the strategy increased the access of socio-economically better-off households at higher rate. In addition, the strategy contradicts to collect a large-scale community fund and carry out livelihood improvement activities as per the community forestry objectives. The crucial part of the study is despite the fact of low pricing strategy; the timber alone contributed large part of community fund collection. The results revealed close relation between pricing decisions and livelihood objectives. The action research result shows that positive price discrimination can slightly reduce the prevailing inequality and increase the fund. However, it lacks to harness the full price of forest products and collects a large-scale community fund. For broader outcomes of common property resource management in terms of resource sustainability, equity, and livelihood opportunity, the study suggests local institutions to harness the full price of resource products with respect to the local market.

Keywords: community, equitable, forest, livelihood, socioeconomic, Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 523
4081 Combining Patients Pain Scores Reports with Functionality Scales in Chronic Low Back Pain Patients

Authors: Ivana Knezevic, Kenneth D. Candido, N. Nick Knezevic

Abstract:

Background: While pain intensity scales remain generally accepted assessment tool, and the numeric pain rating score is highly subjective, we nevertheless rely on them to make a judgment about treatment effects. Misinterpretation of pain can lead practitioners to underestimate or overestimate the patient’s medical condition. The purpose of this study was to analyze how the numeric rating pain scores given by patients with low back pain correlate with their functional activity levels. Methods: We included 100 consecutive patients with radicular low back pain (LBP) after the Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval. Pain scores, numeric rating scale (NRS) responses at rest and in the movement,Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaire answers were collected 10 times through 12 months. The ODI questionnaire is targeting a patient’s activities and physical limitations as well as a patient’s ability to manage stationary everyday duties. Statistical analysis was performed by using SPSS Software version 20. Results: The average duration of LBP was 14±22 months at the beginning of the study. All patients included in the study were between 24 and 78 years old (average 48.85±14); 56% women and 44% men. Differences between ODI and pain scores in the range from -10% to +10% were considered “normal”. Discrepancies in pain scores were graded as mild between -30% and -11% or +11% and +30%; moderate between -50% and -31% and +31% and +50% and severe if differences were more than -50% or +50%. Our data showed that pain scores at rest correlate well with ODI in 65% of patients. In 30% of patients mild discrepancies were present (negative in 21% and positive in 9%), 4% of patients had moderate and 1% severe discrepancies. “Negative discrepancy” means that patients graded their pain scores much higher than their functional ability, and most likely exaggerated their pain. “Positive discrepancy” means that patients graded their pain scores much lower than their functional ability, and most likely underrated their pain. Comparisons between ODI and pain scores during movement showed normal correlation in only 39% of patients. Mild discrepancies were present in 42% (negative in 39% and positive in 3%); moderate in 14% (all negative), and severe in 5% (all negative) of patients. A 58% unknowingly exaggerated their pain during movement. Inconsistencies were equal in male and female patients (p=0.606 and p=0.928).Our results showed that there was a negative correlation between patients’ satisfaction and the degree of reporting pain inconsistency. Furthermore, patients talking opioids showed more discrepancies in reporting pain intensity scores than did patients taking non-opioid analgesics or not taking medications for LBP (p=0.038). There was a highly statistically significant correlation between morphine equivalents doses and the level of discrepancy (p<0.0001). Conclusion: We have put emphasis on the patient education in pain evaluation as a vital step in accurate pain level reporting. We have showed a direct correlation with patients’ satisfaction. Furthermore, we must identify other parameters in defining our patients’ chronic pain conditions, such as functionality scales, quality of life questionnaires, etc., and should move away from an overly simplistic subjective rating scale.

Keywords: pain score, functionality scales, low back pain, lumbar

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4080 Asset Liability Modelling for Pension Funds by Introducing Leslie Model for Population Dynamics

Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

Abstract:

The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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