Search results for: lagged variables

Authors: Shamil Mardi Al Islam, Zaima Ahmed

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The aim of this article is to explore whether certain macroeconomic variables such as industrial index, inflation, broad money, exchange rate and deposit rate as a proxy for interest rate are interlinked with Dhaka stock price index (DSEX index) precisely after the introduction of new index by Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) since January 2013. Bangladesh stock market has experienced rapid growth since its inception. It might not be a very well-developed capital market as compared to its neighboring counterparts but has been a strong avenue for investment and resource mobilization. The data set considered consists of monthly observations, for a period of four years from January 2013 to June 2018. Findings from cointegration analysis suggest that DSEX and macroeconomic variables have a significant long-run relationship. VAR decomposition based on VAR estimated indicates that money supply explains a significant portion of variation of stock index whereas, inflation is found to have the least impact. Impact of industrial index is found to have a low impact compared to the exchange rate and deposit rate. Policies should there aim to increase industrial production in order to enhance stock market performance. Further reasonable money supply should be ensured by authorities to stimulate stock market performance.

Keywords: deposit rate, DSEX, industrial index, VAR

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Authors: Jennifer E. Lynette

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This study describes the development process of a methodological framework for quality standards used to measure the efficiency and quality of response efforts of trained personnel at emergency events. This paper describes the techniques used to develop the initial framework and its potential application to professions under the broader field of emergency management. The example described in detail in this paper applies the framework specifically to fire response activities by firefighters. Within the quality standards framework, the fire response process is chronologically mapped. Individual variables within the sequence of events are identified. Through in-person data collection, questionnaires, interviews, and the expansion of the incident reporting system, this study identifies and categorizes previously unrecorded variables involved in the response phase of a fire. Following a data analysis of each variable using a quantitative or qualitative assessment, the variables are ranked pertaining to the magnitude of their impact to the event outcome. Among others, key indicators of quality performance in the analysis involve decision communication, resource utilization, response techniques, and response time. Through the application of this framework and subsequent utilization of quality standards indicators, there is potential to increase efficiency in the response phase of an emergency event; thereby saving additional lives, property, and resources.

Keywords: emergency management, fire, quality standards, response

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Authors: Y. D. Lim, K. S. Yap, K. T. Ooi

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Cross Vane Expander Compressor (CVEC) is a newly invented expander-compressor combined unit, where it is introduced to replace the compressor and the expansion valve in traditional refrigeration system. The mathematical model of CVEC has been developed to examine its performance, and it was found that the energy consumption of a conventional refrigeration system was reduced by as much as 18%. It is believed that energy consumption can be further reduced by optimizing the device. In this study, the coefficient of performance (COP) of CVEC has been optimized under predetermined operational parameters and constrained main design parameters. Several main design parameters of CVEC were selected to be the variables, and the optimization was done with theoretical model in a simulation program. The theoretical model consists of geometrical model, dynamic model, heat transfer model and valve dynamics model. Complex optimization method, which is a constrained, direct search and multi-variables method was used in the study. As a result, the optimization study suggested that with an appropriate combination of design parameters, a 58% COP improvement in CVEC R134a refrigeration system is possible.

Keywords: COP, cross vane expander-compressor, CVEC, design, simulation, refrigeration system, air-conditioning, R134a, multi variables

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Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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Authors: Nadia Sghaier

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In this paper, we aim to identify the determinants of the life and non-life insurance premiums of different lines for the case of the Tunisian insurance market over a recent period from 1997 to 2019. The empirical analysis is conducted using the linear cointegration techniques in the panel data framework, which allow both long and short-run relationships. The obtained results show evidence of long-run relationship between premiums, losses, and financial variables (stock market indices and interest rate). Furthermore, we find that the short-run effect of explanatory variables differs across lines. This finding has important implications for insurance tarification and regulation.

Keywords: insurance premiums, lines, Tunisian insurance market, cointegration approach in panel data

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Authors: Kevin Wongleedee

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The objective of this research was to study the level of importance of motivation factors from the perspective of international tourist who visited Bangkok, Thailand. The independent variables included gender, age, levels of education, occupation, and income while the dependent variables were ten motivation factors. A simple random sampling method was utilized to get 200 respondents. The majority of respondents were both male and female in almost the same proportion and most were between 21-40 years old. Most were married and had a graduate degree. The average income of the respondents was between $30,000-50,000. The findings revealed the ranking levels of importance by highest mean to lowest mean as follows: Thai food, nature-beaches, spa, tradition markets, shopping places, museums, festivals, night entertainment, conference/expo, and visiting friends. In addition, the overall means is 4.11 with 0.812 SD.

Keywords: international tourist, motivation, revisit, Thailand

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Authors: H. Naseh, M. Mirshams, M. Mirdamadian, H. R. Fazeley

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This paper presents an extension of fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology that could effectively be used to find the overall satisfaction of objective functions (selecting the design variables) in the early stages of design process. The coupling of objective functions due to design variables in an engineering design process will result in difficulties in design optimization problems. In many cases, decision making on design variables conflicts with more than one discipline in system design. In space launch system conceptual design, decision making on some design variable (e.g. oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate O/F) in early stages of the design process is related to objective of liquid propellant engine (specific impulse) and Tanks (structure weight). Then, the primary application of this methodology is the design of a liquid propellant engine with the maximum specific impulse and cylindrical stiffened tank with the minimum weight. To this end, the design problem is established the fuzzy rule set based on designer's expert knowledge with a holistic approach. The independent design variables in this model are oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate, thickness of stringers, thickness of rings, shell thickness. To handle the mentioned problems, a fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology is developed based on Pareto optimal set. Consequently, this methodology is modeled with the one stage of space launch system to illustrate accuracy and efficiency of proposed methodology.

Keywords: cylindrical stiffened tanks, multi-objective, genetic algorithm, fuzzy approach

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Authors: Shi Yu, Rong Liu, Jingyun Lv

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Compression textiles with ergonomic-fit and controllable pressure performance have demonstrated positive effect on prevention and treatment of chronic venous insufficiency (CVI). Well-designed compression textile products contribute to improving user compliance in their daily application. This study explored the effects of multiple knitting variables (yarn-machinery settings) on the physical-mechanical properties and the produced pressure magnitudes of tubular compression fabrics (TCFs) through experimental testing and multiple regression modeling. The results indicated that fabric physical (stitch densities and circumference) and mechanical (tensile) properties were affected by the linear density (yarn diameters) of inlay yarns, which, to some extent, influenced pressure magnitudes of the TCFs. Knitting variables (e.g., feeding velocity of inlay yarns and loop size settings) can alter circumferences and tensile properties of tubular fabrics, respectively, and significantly varied pressure values of the TCFs. This study enhanced the understanding of the effects of knitting factors on pressure controlling of TCFs, thus facilitating dimension and pressure design of compression textiles in future development.

Keywords: laid-in knitted fabric, yarn-machinery settings, pressure magnitudes, quantitative analysis, compression textiles

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Authors: Pradyumna Mohanty

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The paper aims to explore whether accounting information of Indian companies in the Steel sector are value relevant or not. Ohlson’s model which usually takes into consideration book value per share (BV) and earnings per share (EARN) has been used and the same has been expanded to include two more variables such as cash flow from operations (CFO) and return on equity (ROE). The data were collected from CMIE-Prowess data base in respect of BSE-listed steel companies and the time frame spans from 2010 to 2014. OLS regression has been used to test the value relevance of these accounting numbers. Results indicate that both CFO and BV are having significant influence on the stock price in two out of five years of study. But, BV is emerging as the most significant and highly value relevant of all the four variables during the entire period of study.

Keywords: value relevance, accounting information, book value per share, earnings per share

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Authors: Taha Anjamrooz, Sareh Rajabi, Ayman Alzaatreh

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Smart cities are playing important roles in real life. Integration and automation between different features of modern cities and information technologies improve smart city efficiency, energy management, human and equipment resource management, life quality and better utilization of resources for the customers. One of difficulties in this path, is use, interface and link between software, hardware, and other IT technologies to develop and optimize processes in various business fields such as construction, supply chain management and transportation in parallel to cost-effective and resource reduction impacts. Also, Smart cities are certainly intended to demonstrate a vital role in offering a sustainable and efficient model for smart houses while mitigating environmental and ecological matters. Energy management is one of the most important matters within smart houses in the smart cities and communities, because of the sensitivity of energy systems, reduction in energy wastage and maximization in utilizing the required energy. Specially, the consumption of energy in the smart houses is important and considerable in the economic balance and energy management in smart city as it causes significant increment in energy-saving and energy-wastage reduction. This research paper develops features and concept of smart city in term of overall efficiency through various effective variables. The selected variables and observations are analyzed through data analysis processes to demonstrate the efficiency of smart city and compare the effectiveness of each variable. There are ten chosen variables in this study to improve overall efficiency of smart city through increasing effectiveness of smart houses using an automated solar photovoltaic system, RFID System, smart meter and other major elements by interfacing between software and hardware devices as well as IT technologies. Secondly to enhance aspect of energy management by energy-saving within smart house through efficient variables. The main objective of smart city and smart houses is to reproduce energy and increase its efficiency through selected variables with a comfortable and harmless atmosphere for the customers within a smart city in combination of control over the energy consumption in smart house using developed IT technologies. Initially the comparison between traditional housing and smart city samples is conducted to indicate more efficient system. Moreover, the main variables involved in measuring overall efficiency of system are analyzed through various processes to identify and prioritize the variables in accordance to their influence over the model. The result analysis of this model can be used as comparison and benchmarking with traditional life style to demonstrate the privileges of smart cities. Furthermore, due to expensive and expected shortage of natural resources in near future, insufficient and developed research study in the region, and available potential due to climate and governmental vision, the result and analysis of this study can be used as key indicator to select most effective variables or devices during construction phase and design

Keywords: smart city, traditional housing, RFID, photovoltaic system, energy efficiency, energy saving

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Authors: P. K. Rahul Krishna, S. Sandeep Kumar, Jayanthi Sunder Raj

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The article explores one of the important relations between numbers-the Pythagorean triples (triplets) which finds its application in distance measurement, construction of roads, towers, buildings and wherever Pythagoras theorem finds its application. The Pythagorean triples are numbers, that satisfy the condition “In a given set of three natural numbers, the sum of squares of two natural numbers is equal to the square of the other natural number”. There are numerous methods and equations to obtain the triplets, which have their own merits and demerits. Here, quadratic approach for generating triples uses the hypotenuse leg difference method. The advantage is that variables are few and finally only three independent variables are present.

Keywords: arithmetic progression, hypotenuse leg difference method, natural numbers, Pythagorean triplets, quadratic equation

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Authors: Mohammad Didar Hossain

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Background/Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between productive engagements and the psychological well-being of older adults in the U.S by analyzing cross-sectional data from a secondary dataset. Specifically, this paper analyzed the associations of 4 different types of productive engagements, including current work status, caregiving to the family members, volunteering and religious strengths with the psychological well-being as an outcome variable. Methods: Data and sample: The study used the data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The HRS is a nationally representative prospective longitudinal cohort study that has been conducting biennial surveys since 1992 to community-dwelling individuals 50 years of age or older on diverse issues. This analysis was based on the 2016 wave (cross-sectional) of the HRS dataset and the data collection period was April 2016 through August 2017. The samples were recruited from a multistage, national area-clustered probability sampling frame. Measures: Four different variables were considered as the predicting variables in this analysis. Firstly, current working status was a binary variable that measured by 0=Yes and 1= No. The second and third variables were respectively caregiving and volunteering, and both of them were measured by; 0=Regularly, 1= Irregularly. Finally, find in strength was measured by 0= Agree and 1= Disagree. Outcome (Wellbeing) variable was measured by 0= High level of well-being, 1= Low level of well-being. Control variables including age were measured in years, education in the categories of 0=Low level of education, 1= Higher level of education and sex r in the categories 0=male, 1= female. Analysis and Results: Besides the descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression analyses were applied to examine the association between independent and dependent variables. The results showed that among the four independent variables, three of them including working status (OR: .392, p<.001), volunteering (OR: .471, p<.003) and strengths in religion (OR .588, p<.003), were significantly associated with psychological well-being while controlling for age, gender and education factors. Also, no significant association was found between the caregiving engagement of older adults and their psychological well-being outcome. Conclusions and Implications: The findings of this study are mostly consistent with the previous studies except for the caregiving engagements and their impact on older adults’ well-being outcomes. Therefore, the findings support the proactive initiatives from different micro to macro levels to facilitate opportunities for productive engagements for the older adults, and all of these may ultimately benefit their psychological well-being and life satisfaction in later life.

Keywords: productive engagements, older adults, psychological wellbeing, productive aging

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Monica Alzate, Marcos Dono, Jose Manuel Sabucedo

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As long as collective action and its predictors constitute a big body of work in the field of political psychology, context-dependent studies and moral variables are a relatively new issue. The main goal of this presentation is to examine the differences in the predictors of collective action when taking into account two different types of protest, and also focus on the role of moral obligation as a predictor of collective action. To do so, we sampled both protesters and non-protesters from two mobilizations (N=376; N=563) of different nature (catalan Independence, and an 'indignados' march) and performed a logistic regression and a 2x2 MANOVA analysis. Results showed that the predictive variables that were more discriminative between protesters and non-protesters were identity, injustice, efficacy and moral obligation for the catalan Diada and injustice and moral obligation for the 'indignados'. Also while the catalans scored higher in the identification and efficacy variables, the indignados did so in injustice and moral obligation. Differences are evidenced between two types of collective action that coexist within the same protest cycle. The frames of injustice and moral obligation gain strength in the post-2010 mobilizations, a fact probably associated with the combination of materialist and post-materialist values that distinguish the movement. All of this emphasizes the need of studying protest from a contextual point of view. Besides, moral obligation emerges as key predictor of collective action engagement.

Keywords: collective action, identity, moral obligation, protest

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Authors: Alice Schittek, Isabelle Roskam, Moira Mikolajczak

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Background: Perfectionistic strivings (PS) and perfectionistic concerns (PC) are associated with an increase in parental burnout (PB), and PB causally increases violence towards the offspring. Objective: To our best knowledge, no study has ever investigated whether perfectionism (PS and PC) predicts violence towards the offspring and whether PB could explain this link. We hypothesized that an increase in PS and PC would lead to an increase in violence via an increase in PB. Method: 228 participants responded to an online survey, with three measurement occasions spaced two months apart. Results: Contrary to expectations, cross-lagged path models revealed that violence towards the offspring prospectively predicts an increase in PS and PC. Mediation models showed that PB is not a significant mediator. The results of all models did not change when controlling for social desirability. Conclusion: The present study shows that violence towards the offspring increases the risk of PS and PC in parents, which highlights the importance of understanding the effect of child maltreatment on the whole family system and not just on children. Results are discussed in light of the feeling of guilt experienced by parents. Considering the insignificant mediation effect, PB research should slowly shift towards more (quasi) causal designs, allowing to identify which significant correlations translate into causal effects. Implications: Clinicians should focus on preventing child maltreatment as well as treating parental perfectionism. Researchers should unravel the effects of child maltreatment on the family system.

Keywords: maltreatment, parental burnout, perfectionistic strivings, perfectionistic concerns, perfectionism, violence

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Authors: Michal Kopcek, Tomas Skulavik, Michal Kebisek, Gabriela Krizanova

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The operation of nuclear power plants involves continuous monitoring of the environment in their area. This monitoring is performed using a complex data acquisition system, which collects status information about the system itself and values of many important physical variables e.g. temperature, humidity, dose rate etc. This paper describes a proposal and optimization of communication that takes place in teledosimetric system between the central control server responsible for the data processing and storing and the decentralized measuring stations, which are measuring the physical variables. Analyzes of ongoing communication were performed and consequently the optimization of the system architecture and communication was done.

Keywords: communication protocol, transmission optimization, data acquisition, system architecture

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Authors: Bruna G. M. Araújo, Pedro M. M. Q. Cruz

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In this letter, we review the literature of the major concepts that govern Gaussian quantum information. As we work with quantum information and computation with continuous variables, Gaussian states are needed to better describe these systems. Analyzing a single ion locked in a Paul trap we use the interaction picture to obtain a toolbox of Gaussian operations with the ion-laser interaction Hamiltionian. This is achieved exciting the ion through the combination of two lasers of distinct frequencies corresponding to different sidebands of the external degrees of freedom. First we study the case of a trap with 1 mode and then the case with 2 modes. In this way, we achieve different continuous variables gates just by changing the external degrees of freedom of the trap and combining the Hamiltonians of blue and red sidebands.

Keywords: Paul trap, ion-laser interaction, Gaussian operations

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Authors: Nadia Ayub

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The purpose of the study was to explore the impact of personal identity on self-esteem among adolescents. Two hypotheses were tested in the study, i.e., personal identity effects on self-esteem; and gender difference in the variables of personal identity and self-esteem. The total of 300 (150 female; 150 male) adolescents participated in the study. Personal identity scale (Ayub, N., In Press), and self-esteem scale (Rosenberg, 1985) were administered. The findings of the study suggest that positive personal identity impact on self-esteem and gender difference was found on the variables of personal identity and self-esteem. In conclusion, the results of the study are beneficial for researchers, policymakers, psychologists. The strong positive personal identity and self-esteem help in healthy mental development not only in adolescence but throughout the life of individuals.

Keywords: personal identity, self-esteem, adolescents, positive psychology

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Authors: Haruna Modibbo Usman, Mustapha Muktar, Nasiru Inuwa

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This paper examined the long run relationship between health outcomes and economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2012. Using annual time series data, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is conducted to check the stochastic properties of the variables. Also, the long run relationship among the variables is confirmed based on Johansen Multivariate Cointegration approach whereas the long run and short run dynamics are observed using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). In addition, VEC Granger causality test is employed to examine the direction of causality among the variables. On the whole, the results obtained revealed the existence of a long run relationship between health outcomes and economic growth in Nigeria and that both life expectancy and crude death rate as measures of health are found to have a long run negative and statistically significant impact on the economic growth over the study period. This is further buttressed by the results of Granger causality test which indicated the existence of unidirectional causality running from life expectancy and crude death rate to economic growth. The study therefore, calls for governments at various levels to create preconditions for health improvements in Nigeria in order to boost the level of health outcomes.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, Granger causality, health outcomes, VECM

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Authors: Yakubu Suleiman, S. A. Musa

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The research was conducted to determine the physical characteristics of banana fruits that influenced consumer preferences for the fruit in Northern Nigeria. Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents were also identified. Simple descriptive statistics and Hedonic prices model were used to analyze the data collected for socio-economic and consumer preference respectively with the aid of 1000 structured questionnaires. The result revealed the value of R2 to be 0.633, meaning that, 63.3% of the variation in the banana price was brought about by the explanatory variables included in the model and the variables are: colour, size, degree of ripeness, softness, surface blemish, cleanliness of the fruits, weight, length, and cluster size of fruits. However, the remaining 36.7% could be attributed to the error term or random disturbance in the model. It could also be seen from the calculated result that the intercept was 1886.5 and was statistically significant (P < 0.01), meaning that about N1886.5 worth of banana fruits could be bought by consumers without considering the variables of banana included in the model. Moreover, consumers showed that they have significant preference for colours, size, degree of ripeness, softness, weight, length and cluster size of banana fruits and they were tested to be significant at either P < 0.01, P < 0.05, and P < 0.1 . Moreover, the result also shows that consumers did not show significance preferences to surface blemish, cleanliness and variety of the banana fruit as all of them showed non-significance level with negative signs. Based on the findings of the research, it is hereby recommended that plant breeders and research institutes should concentrate on the production of banana fruits that have those physical characteristics that were found to be statistically significance like cluster size, degree of ripeness,’ softness, length, size, and skin colour.

Keywords: analysis, consumers, preference, variables

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Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression

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Authors: Medhin Haftom Hailu

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The advancement of information technology has significantly impacted Ethiopia's economy, driving innovation, productivity, job creation, and global connectivity. This research examined the impact of contemporary information and communication technologies on Ethiopian economic progress. The study examined eight variables, including mobile, internet, and fixed-line penetration rates, and five macroeconomic control variables. The results showed a positive and strong effect of ICT on economic growth in Ethiopia, with 1% increase in mobile, internet, and fixed line services penetration indexes resulting in an 8.03, 10.05, and 30.06% increase in real GDP. The Granger causality test showed that all ICT variables Granger caused economic growth, but economic growth Granger caused mobile penetration rate only. The study suggests that coordinated ICT infrastructure development, increased telecom service accessibility, and increased competition in the telecom market are crucial for Ethiopia's economic growth. Ethiopia is attempting to establish a digital economy through massive investment in ensuring ICT quality and accessibility. Thus, the research could enhance in understanding of the economic impact of ICT expansion for successful ICT policy interventions for future research.

Keywords: economic growth, cointegration and error correction, ICT expansion, granger causality, penetration

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

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Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis, Apostolos I. Linardis

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Health2020 is a promising framework of policies provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and aiming to diminish the health and well-being inequalities among the citizens of the European Union (EU) countries. The major demographic, social and environmental changes, in addition to the resent economic crisis prevent the unobstructed and successful implementation of this framework. The unemployment rates and the percentage of people at risk of poverty have increased among the citizens of EU countries. At the same time, the adopted fiscal, economic policies do not help governments to serve their social role and mitigate social and health inequalities. In those circumstances, there is a strong pressure to organize all health system resources efficiently and wisely. In order to provide a unified and value-based framework of valuation, we propose a valuation framework using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and dynamic DEA. We believe that the adopted methodology could provide a robust tool which can capture the degree of success with which policies have been implemented and is capable to determine which of the countries developed the requested policies efficiently and which of the countries have been lagged. Using the proposed methodology, we evaluated the performance of 28 EU member-countries in relation to the Health2020 peripheral targets. We adopted several versions of evaluation, measuring the effectiveness and the efficiency of EU countries from 2011 to 2016. Our results showed stability in technological changes and revealed a group of countries which were benchmarks in most of the years for the inefficient countries.

Keywords: DEA, Health2020, health inequalities, malmquist index, policies evaluation, well-being

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Authors: Nitza Davidovitch, Yael Yossel-Eisenbach

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The purpose of the study was to inquire whether there was a change in the shaping of undergraduate students’ digitally-oriented study pattern in the pre-Covid (2016-2017) versus post-Covid period (2022-2023), as affected by three factors: social background characteristics, high school, and academic background characteristics. These two-time points were cauterized by dramatic changes in teaching and learning at institutions of higher education. The data were collected via cross-sectional surveys at two-time points, in the 2016-2017 academic school year (N=443) and in the 2022-2023 school year (N=326). The questionnaire was distributed on social media and it includes questions on demographic background characteristics, previous studies in high school and present academic studies, and questions on learning and reading habits. Method of analysis: A. Statistical descriptive analysis, B. Mean comparison tests were conducted to analyze the variations in the mean score for the digitally-oriented learning pattern variable at two-time points (pre- and post-Covid) in relation to each of the independent variables. C. Analysis of variance was performed to test the main effects and the interactions. D. Applying linear regression, the research aimed to examine the combined effect of the independent variables on shaping students' digitally-oriented learning habits. The analysis includes four models. In all four models, the dependent variable is students’ perception of digitally oriented learning. The first model included social background variables; the second model included scholastic background as well. In the third model, the academic background variables were added, and the fourth model includes all the independent variables together with the variable of period (pre- and post-COVID). E. Factor analysis confirms using the principal component method with varimax rotation; the variables were constructed by a weighted mean of all the relevant statements merged to form a single variable denoting a shared content world. The research findings indicate a significant rise in students’ perceptions of digitally-oriented learning in the post-COVID period. From a gender perspective, the impact of COVID on shaping a digital learning pattern was much more significant for female students. The socioeconomic status perspective is eliminated when controlling for the period, and the student’s job is affected - more than all other variables. It may be assumed that the student’s work pattern mediates effects related to the convenience offered by digital learning regarding distance and time. The significant effect of scholastic background on shaping students’ digital learning patterns remained stable, even when controlling for all explanatory variables. The advantage that universities had over colleges in shaping a digital learning pattern in the pre-COVID period dissipated. Therefore, it can be said that after COVID, there was a change in how colleges shape students’ digital learning patterns in such a way that no institutional differences are evident with regard to shaping the digital learning pattern. The study shows that period has a significant independent effect on shaping students’ digital learning patterns when controlling for the explanatory variables.

Keywords: learning pattern, COVID, socioeconomic status, digital learning

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Authors: Manamba Epaphra

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This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model that includes control variables such as trade liberalization, life expectancy and macroeconomic stability proxied by inflation is used to estimate the impact of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012), and Le and Suruga (2005) are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on private domestic investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Generally, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment plays an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. FDI also tends to affect growth positively, while control variables such as high population growth and inflation appear to harm economic growth. Results also reveal that control variables such as trade openness and life expectancy improvement tend to increase real GDP growth. Moreover, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth reduces when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Thus, there is a great need for promoting domestic saving so as to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

Keywords: FDI, public investment, domestic private investment, crowding out effect, economic growth

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Authors: Burcu Guvenek, Volkan Alptekin

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Turkey is a country in the process of development and its economy has undergone structural reforms in order to realize a sustainable development and energy has vital role as a basic input for this aim. Turkey has been in the process of economic growth and development and, because of this, has an increasing energy need. This paper investigates relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption using annual data for Turkey between 1970-2008 by using bounds test. As economic growth and energy consumption variables used in empirical analysis was different order of integration I(0) and I(1), we employed bounds test approach. We have not found co-integration relationship between the variables.

Keywords: bounds test, economic growth, energy consumption, Turkey

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Authors: K. Abuzayan, H. Alabed, J. Ezarrugh, M. Agila

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Static and dynamic balance are essential in daily and sports life. Many factors have been identified as influencing static balance control. Therefore, the aim of this study was to apply the (XCoM) method and other relevant variables (CoP, CoM, Fh, KE, P, Q, and, AI) to investigate sport related activities such as hopping and jumping. Many studies have represented the CoP data without mentioning its accuracy, so several experiments were done to establish the agreement between the CoP and the projected CoM in a static condition. Five male healthy (Mean ± SD:- age 24.6 years ±4.5, height 177 cm ± 6.3, body mass 72.8 kg ± 6.6) participated in this study. Results found that The implementation of the XCoM method was found to be practical for evaluating both static and dynamic balance. The general findings were that the CoP, the CoM, the XCoM, Fh, and Q were more informative than the other variables (e.g. KE, P, and AI) during static and dynamic balance. The XCoM method was found to be applicable to dynamic balance as well as static balance.

Keywords: centre of mass, static balance, dynamic balance, extrapolated centre of mass

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Authors: Adeola Adejumo, Oluwole David Adebayo, Muraina Kamilu Olanrewaju

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of some psychological factors (i.e, school climate, parental involvement and classroom interaction) on the learning gains of university undergraduates in Mathematics in Ibadan, Nigeria. Three hundred undergraduates who are on open distance learning education programme in the University of Ibadan and thirty mathematics lecturers constituted the study’s sample. Both the independent and dependent variables were measured with relevant standardized instruments and the data obtained was analyzed using multiple regression statistical method. The instruments used were school climate scale, parental involvement scale and classroom interaction scale. Three research questions were answered in the study. The result showed that there was significant relationship between the three independent variables (school climate, parental involvement and classroom interaction) on the students’ learning gain in mathematics and that the independent variables both jointly and relatively contributed significantly to the prediction of students’ learning gain in mathematics. On the strength of these findings, the need to enhance the school climate, improve the parents’ involvement in the student’s education and encourage students’ classroom interaction were stressed and advocated.

Keywords: school climate, parental involvement, ODL, learning gains, mathematics

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Authors: Momoka Sunohara, Ashley J. Lemieux, Esther Yakobov, Andrew G. Ryder, Tomas Jurcik

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Immigration brings changes in many aspects of an individual's life, from social support dynamics, to housing and language, as well as difficulties with regards to discrimination, trauma, and loss. Past research has mostly emphasized individual differences in mental health and has neglected the impact of social-ecological context, such as acculturation and ethnic density. Purpose: The present study aimed to assess the relationship between variables associated with social integration such as perceived ethnic density and ways of coping, as well as psychological adjustment in a rapidly growing non-visible minority group of immigrants in Canada. Data: A small subset of an archival data from our previously published study was reanalyzed with additional variables. Data included information from 269 Russian-Speaking immigrants in Montreal, Canada. Method: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) investigated the relationship between two sets of variables. SAS PROC CANCORR was used to conduct CCA on a set of social integration variables, including ethnic density, discrimination, social support, family functioning, and acculturation, and a set of psychological well-being variables, including distress, depression, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. In addition, canonical redundancy analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of variances of original variables explained by their own canonical variates. Results: Significance tests using Rao’s F statistics indicated that the first two canonical correlations (i.e., r1 = 0.64, r2 = 0.40) were statistically significant (p-value < 0.0001). Additionally, canonical redundancy analysis showed that the first two well-being canonical variates explained separately 62.9% and 12.8% variances of the standardized well-being variables, whereas the first two social integration canonical variates explained separately 14.7% and 16.7% variances of the standardized social integration variables. These results support the selection of the first two canonical correlations. Then, we interpreted the derived canonical variates based on their canonical structure (i.e., correlations with original variables). Two observations can be concluded. First, individuals who have adequate social support, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and reframing are more likely to have better self-esteem, greater life satisfaction and experience less feelings of depression or distress. Second, individuals who feel discriminated yet rate higher on a mainstream acculturation scale, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and using spirituality, while using less passive strategies are more likely to have better life satisfaction but also higher degree of depression. Implications: This model may serve to explain the complex interactions that exist between social and emotional adjustment and aid in facilitating the integration of individuals immigrating into new communities. The same group may experience greater depression but paradoxically improved life satisfaction associated with their coping process. Such findings need to be placed in the context of Russian cultural values. For instance, some Russian-speakers may value the expression of negative emotions with significant others during the integration process; this in turn may make negative emotions more salient, but also facilitate a greater sense of family and community connection, as well as life satisfaction.

Keywords: acculturation, ethnic density, mental health, Russian-speaking

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