Search results for: seasonal changes

Authors: Farag Ahwide, Souhel Bousheha

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A technical assessment has been made of electricity generation, considering wind turbines ranging between Vestas (V80-2.0 MW and V112-3.0 MW) and the air density is equal to 1.225 Kg/m3, at different towns in Libya. Wind speed might have been measured each 3 hours during 10 m stature at a time for 10 quite sometime between 2000 Furthermore 2009, these towns which are spotted on the bank from claiming Mediterranean ocean also how in the desert, which need aid Derna 1, Derna 2, Shahat, Benghazi, Ajdabya, Sirte, Misurata, Tripoli-Airport, Al-Zawya, Al-Kofra, Sabha, Nalut. The work presented long term "wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, monthly and diurnal variations at these sites. Wind power density with different heights has been studied. Excel sheet program was used to calculate the values of wind power density and the values of wind speed frequency for the stations; their seasonally values have been estimated. Limit variable with rated wind pace to 10 different wind turbines need to be been estimated, which is used to focus those required yearly vitality yield of a wind vitality change framework (WECS), acknowledging wind turbines extending between 600 kW and 3000 kW).

Keywords: Energy yield, wind turbines, wind speed, wind power density.

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Authors: Omaymah AlAzhari

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Nomadic tribes have always had the need to relocate and build shelters, moving from one site to another in search of food, water, and natural resources. They are affected by weather and seasonal changes and consequently started innovating textiles to build better shelters. Their solutions came from the observation of their natural environment, material, and surroundings. ‘AlRahala’ Nomadic Bedouin tribes from the Middle East and North African region have used textiles as a fundamental architectural element in their tent structure, ‘Bayt AlShar’ (House of Hair). The nomadic tribe has innovated their textile to create a fabric that is more suited to change in climatic and weather conditions. They used sheep, goat, or camel hair to weave the textiles to make their shelters. The research is based on existing literature on the weaving technicalities used by these tribes, based on their available materials encountered during travel. To conclude how they create the traditional textiles and use in the tents are a rich source of information for designers to create innovative solutions of modern-day textiles and environmentally responsive products.

Keywords: AlRahala Nomadic Tribes, Bayt AlShar, tent structure, textile innovation.

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Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

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Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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Authors: H.M. El-Khayat, N.M. Ismail, K.M. Mahmoud, F.M. Ragb, K.M. El-Said, B. B. Mostafa, F. A. El- Deeb, A.A. Tantawy

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Seasonal survey of freshwater snails in different water courses in Egypt during two successive years included 13 snail species. They represented by Biomphalaria alexandrina, Bulinus truncatus, Physa acuta, Helisoma duryi, Lymnaea natalensis, Planorbis pantries, Cleopatra bulimoides, Lanistes carinatus, Bellamya unicolor, Melanoides tuberculata, Theodoxus niloticus, Succinia cleopatra and Valvata nilotica. B. alexandrina was most abundant during autumn and spring represented by 26and14 snails/site, respectively. B. truncatus was most abundant during winter (7.7and3.6snails/site) of the two years, respectively. L. natalensis was represented by 7snails/site in summer. The tolerance of different snail species to the chemical elements was determined seasonally and correlated to their abundance. In spring, autumn and winter, B. alexandrina was significantly found to live under the highest level of Pb, Cd,Cu, Na, K and Ca concentrations than the other species (p<0.01). Most snail species could be lived at approximately the same concentrations of Na, K and Ca during all seasons.

Keywords: chemical parameters, freshwater, snails, tolerance

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Authors: A. Khosravi, S. Ghadirian, J. S. McCartney

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Evaluation of the seismic-induced settlement of an unsaturated soil layer depends on several variables, among which the small strain shear modulus, G_max, and soil’s state of stress have been demonstrated to be of particular significance. Recent interpretation of trends in G_max revealed considerable effects of the degree of saturation and hydraulic hysteresis on the shear stiffness of soils in unsaturated states. Accordingly, the soil layer is expected to experience different settlement behaviors depending on the soil saturation and seasonal weathering conditions. In this study, a semi-empirical formulation was adapted to extend an existing G_max model to infer hysteretic effects along different paths of the SWRC including scanning curves. The suitability of the proposed approach is validated against experimental results from a suction-controlled resonant column test and from data reported in literature. The model was observed to follow the experimental data along different paths of the SWRC, and showed a slight hysteresis in shear modulus along the scanning curves.

Keywords: Hydraulic hysteresis, Scanning path, Small strain shear modulus, Unsaturated soil.

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Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Touhari Fadhila, Meddi Mohamed

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The Cheliff basin offers a good hydrological example for the possibility of studying the problem which elucidated in the future, because of the unclearity in several aspects and hydraulic installation. Thus, our study of the Cheliff basin is divided into two principal parts: The spatial evaluation of the precipitation: also, the understanding of the modes of the reconstitution of the resource in water supposes a good knowledge of the structuring of the precipitation fields in the studied space. In the goal of a good knowledge of revitalizes them in water and their management integrated one judged necessary to establish a precipitation card of the Cheliff basin for a good understanding of the evolution of the resource in water in the basin and that goes will serve as basis for all study of hydraulic planning in the Cheliff basin. Then, the establishment of the precipitation card of the Cheliff basin answered a direct need of setting to the disposition of the researchers for the region and a document of reference that will be completed therefore and actualized. The hydrological study, based on the statistical hydrometric data processing will lead us to specify the hydrological terms of the assessment hydrological and to clarify the fundamental aspects of the annual flow, seasonal, extreme and thus of their variability and resources surface water.

Keywords: Hydrological assessment, surface water resources, Cheliff, Algeria.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation.

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Authors: N. Sumathi, R. Srinivasa Rao

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This paper presents the experimental results of 11 kV and 33 kV silicon composite insulators under artificial salt and urea polluted conditions. The tests were carried out under different seasons like summer, winter, and monsoon. The artificial pollution is prepared by properly dissolving the salt and urea in the water. The prepared salt and urea pollutions are sprayed on the insulators and dried up for sufficiently large time. The process is continued until a uniform layer is formed on the surface of insulator. For each insulator rating, four samples were tested. The maximum leakage current and breakdown voltage were measured. From experimental data, performance of test specimen is evaluated by comparing breakdown voltage and leakage current during different seasons when exposed to salt and urea polluted conditions. From these results the performance of the insulators can be predicted when they are installed in industrial, agricultural, and coastal areas. The experimental tests were carried out in the High Voltage laboratory using two stage cascade transformer having the rating of 1000 kVA, 500 kV.

Keywords: Silicon composite insulators, Urea pollution, Leakage current, Breakdown voltage, salt pollution, artificial pollution.

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Authors: Li Wu

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By using linear regression methodology to analyze the data of daily precipitation from 1961-2012, this paper studied the variation tendency of precipitation in Chenzhou. The outcome showed: (1) The annual precipitation was decreasing for 52 years and the difference of precipitation variation tendency among four seasons was remarkable. The precipitation of spring and autumn showed more remarkable decrease than of summer; but the precipitation of winter significantly increased. (2) The annual precipitation frequency tended to lower, which was consistent with the tendency of yearly variation. The seasonal precipitation frequency was greatly different, namely, precipitation frequency in spring and autumn decreased, co-occurring with the phenomenon of mutation; but the winter precipitation frequency increased notably. (3) The precipitation intensity displayed a tendency of increase, including spring, autumn and winter; among them, winter had the most obvious tendency to increase, and autumn had the most yearly variation. Summer was the only season with a tendency of decreasing in precipitation intensity. (4) Annual extreme precipitation tended to reduce, spring, summer and autumn are all included; whereas, winter extreme precipitation tended to increase at the rate of 0.1d/10a. (5) The daily maximum precipitation intensity increased slightly and it varied greatly.

Keywords: Chenzhou, precipitation variation, precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity.

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Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

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In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the K_sat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured K_sat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of K_sat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

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Authors: S. B. Otieno, Were Fred, E. W. Kabiru, K. Waza

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Background: HIV/AIDS is leading to the loss of labor through sickness and subsequent death, this is leading to the neglect of farm and off-farm activities, with the subsequent loss of potential income and food security. The situation is sensitive to seasonal labour peaks in agriculture. This study was done to determine the impact of high HIV prevalence in farming systems and food security in Pala Bondo District, Kenya. Methods: In this study, 386 respondents were randomly chosen in Pala Sub-Location. The respondents and key informants were interviewed using structured questionnaire. The data were entered and analyzed using SPSS version 16. Results: It was established that majority of respondents (67%) were between 18 and 35 years {χ² = (1, N = 386) = 13.430, p = 0.000} (chimney effect). The study also established that 83.5% of respondents were married {χ² = (1, N= 370) = 166.277 p = 0.000} and predominant occupation being farming and fishing (61%), while 52.8% of farm labour was by hand, 26% by oxen, and 4.9% mechanized. 73.2% of respondents only farm 0.25 to 2 acres, 48% mentioned lack of labour in land preparation {χ² ((1,N = 321) = 113.146, p = 0.000), in planting {χ² (1, N = 321) = 29.28, p = 0.000}. Majority of respondents lack food from January to June, during which 93% buy food. Conclusion: The high HIV prevalence in Pala has affected the farm labour leading to food insecurity.

Keywords: Food security, HIV, AIDS, labour.

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Authors: Pascal Constantin, Gîlcă Ioan, Radu Rusu Răzvan, Nacu Gherasim

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In the Northern hemisphere, sheep reproduction is seasonal (September-November). Among several natural factors influencing the reproduction status of rams, we studied the daylight length and temperature. Rams from different breeds were studied: Merinos de Palas (half-precocious), Karakul de Botosani (halfbelated) and Turcana (belated breed, low reproductive plasticity). In Merinos de Palas, ejaculate volume during sexual repose is 51.3% from normal quantity. When autumn climate was experimentally induced, ejaculate volume reached 98.45% (Merinos), 94.97% (Karakul) and 97.59% (Turcana). Semen density increased from 1.031-1.033 till 1.035 after exposition to artificial light and temperature conditions. Spermatozoids mobility and sperm pH improved, passing over 82% and 6.75, values identical to those in the natural reproduction season. Behaviour analysis after photoperiodicity indicated that over 83.3% Merinos and Karakul males and all Turcana rams exteriorised normal and intense sexual reflexes. Certain effort and reduced expenses brought rams in good condition, producing higher quantity and quality sperm.

Keywords: natural factors, photoperiodicity, sexual behaviour, Romanian sheep.

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Authors: Negar Banan, Mohd Talib Latif

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This study investigated the relationship between urban and rural ozone concentrations and quantified the extent to which ambient rural conditions and the concentrations of other pollutants can be used to predict urban ozone concentrations. The study describes the variations of ozone in weekday and weekends as well as the daily maximum recorded at selected monitoring stations. The results showed that Putrajaya station had the highest concentrations of O3 on weekend due the titration of NO during the weekday. Additionally, Jerantut had the lowest average concentration with a reading value high on Wednesdays. The comparisons of average and maximum concentrations of ozone for the three stations showed that the strongest significant correlation is recorded in Jerantut station with the value R2= 0.769. Ozone concentrations originating from a neighbouring urban site form a better predictor to the urban ozone concentrations than widespread rural ozone at some levels of temporal averaging. It is found that in urban and rural of Malaysian peninsular, the concentration of ozone depends on the concentration of NOx and seasonal meteorological factors. The HYSPLIT Model (the northeast monsoon) showed that the wind direction can also influence the concentration of ozone in the atmosphere in the studied areas.

Keywords: Ozone, Hysplit model, Weekend effect, Daily Average and Daily maximum, Malaysia

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Authors: Marcus C. Garcia, Giselle C. Guimarães, Luciana H. Yamane, Renato R. Siman

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The environmental indicators and the classification of beach waste are essential tools to diagnose the current situation and to indicate ways to improve the quality of this environment. The purpose of this paper was to perform a quali-quantitative analysis of the beach waste on the Curva da Jurema Beach (Espírito Santo - Brazil). Three transects were used with equidistant positioning over the total length of the beach for the solid waste collection. Solid wastes were later classified according to their use and primary raw material from the low and high summer season. During the low season, average values of 7.10 items.m^-1, 18.22 g.m^-1 and 0.91 g.m^-2 were found for the whole beach, and transect 3 contributed the most waste, with the total sum of items equal to 999 (49%), a total mass of 5.62 kg and a total volume of 21.31 L. During the high summer season, average values of 8.22 items.m^-1, 54.40 g.m^-1 and 2.72 g.m^-2 were found, with transect 2 contributing the most to the total sum with 1,212 items (53%), a total mass of 10.76 kg and a total volume of 51.99 L. Of the total collected, plastic materials represented 51.4% of the total number of items, 35.9% of the total mass and 68% of the total volume. The implementation of reactive and proactive measures is necessary so that the management of the solid wastes on Curva da Jurema Beach is in accordance with principles of sustainability.

Keywords: Beach solid waste, environmental indicators, quali-quantitative analysis, waste management.

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Authors: M. A. Adejumobi, J. O. Ojediran

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The aim of irrigation is to recharge the available water in the soil. Quality of irrigation water is essential for the yield and quality of crops produced, maintenance of soil productivity and protection of the environment. The analysis of irrigation water arises as a need to know the impact of irrigation water on the yield of crops, the effect, and the necessary control measures to rectify the effect of this for optimum production and yield of crops. This study was conducted to assess the quality of irrigation water with its performance on crop planted, in Josepdam irrigation scheme Bacita, Nigeria. Field visits were undertaken to identify and locate water supply sources and collect water samples from these sources; X1 Drain, Oshin, River Niger loop and Ndafa. Laboratory experiments were then undertaken to determine the quality of raw water from these sources. The analysis was carried for various parameters namely; physical and chemical analyses after water samples have been taken from four sources. The samples were tested in laboratory. Results showed that the raw water sources shows no salinity tendencies with SAR values less than 1me/l and Ecvaules at Zero while the pH were within the recommended range by FAO, there are increase in potassium and sulphate content contamination in three of the location. From this, it is recommended that there should be proper monitoring of the scheme by conducting analysis of water and soil in the environment, preferable test should be carried out at least one year to cover the impact of seasonal variations and to determine the physical and chemical analysis of the water used for irrigation at the scheme.

Keywords: Irrigation, Salinity, Raw water quality, Scheme.

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Authors: Uğur Çakır, Erol Sahin, Kemal Çomaklı, Aysegül Çokgez Kus

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Greenhouses offer us suitable conditions which can be controlled easily for the growth of the plant and they are made by using a covering material that allows the sun light entering into the system. Covering material can be glass, fiber glass, plastic or another transparent element. This study investigates the solar energy usability rates and solar energy benefitting rates of a semi-spherical (modified arch) type greenhouse system according to different orientations and positions which exists under climatic conditions of Bayburt. In the concept of this study it is tried to determine the best direction and best sizes of a semi-spherical greenhouse to get best solar benefit from the sun. To achieve this aim a modeling study is made by using MATLAB. However, this modeling study is run for some determined shapes and greenhouses it can be used for different shaped greenhouses or buildings. The basic parameters are determined as greenhouse azimuth angle, the rate of size of long edge to short and seasonal solar energy gaining of greenhouse. The optimum azimuth angles of 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 50 m2 modified arch greenhouse are 90o, 90o, 35o, 35o, 34o, 33o and 22o while their optimum k values (ratio of length to width) are 10, 10, 10, 10, 6, 4 and 4 respectively. Positioning the buildings in order to get more solar heat energy in winter and less in summer brings out energy and money savings and increases the comfort.

Keywords: Greenhousing, solar energy, direct radiation, renewable energy.

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Authors: S. Nitiworakarn

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In recent years, focus-group discussions, as a resources of qualitative facts collection, have gained popularity amongst practices within social science studies. Despite this popularity, studying qualitative information, particularly focus-group meetings, creates a challenge to most practitioner inspectors. The Mons, also known as Raman is considered to be one of the earliest peoples in mainland South-East Asia and to be found in scattered communities in Thailand, around the central valley and even in Bangkok. The present project responds to the needs identified traditional Mon set menus based on the participation of Bang Kadi community in Bangkok, Thailand. The aim of this study was to generate Mon food set menus based on the participation of the community and to study Mon food in set menus of Bang Kadi population by focus-group interviews and discussions during May to October 2015 of Bang Kadi community in Bangkok, Thailand. Data were collected using (1) focus group discussion between the researcher and 147 people in the community, including community leaders, women of the community and the elderly of the community (2) cooking between the researcher and 22 residents of the community. After the focus group discussion, the results found that Mon set menus of Bang Kadi residents involved of Kang Neng Kua-dit, Kang Luk-yom, Kang Som-Kajaeb, Kangleng Puk-pung, Yum Cha-cam, Pik-pa, Kao-new dek-ha and Num Ma-toom and the ingredients used in cooking are mainly found in local and seasonal regime. Most of foods in set menus are consequent from local wisdom.

Keywords: Focus groups, Mon food, set menus, Bangkok.

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Authors: B. Karakas, S. Lakestani, C. Guler, B. Guciz Dogan, S. Acar Vaizoglu, A. Taner, B. Sekerel, R. Tıpırdamaz, G. Gullu

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Particulate matter (PM) in ambient air is responsible for adverse health effects in adults and children. Relatively little is known about the concentrations, sources and health effects of PM in indoor air. A monitoring study was conducted in Ankara by three campaigns in order to measure PM levels in indoor and outdoor environments to identify and quantify associations between sources and concentrations. Approximately 82 homes (1st campaign for 42, 2nd campaign for 12, and 3rd campaign for 28), three rooms (living room, baby-s room and living room used as a baby-s room) and outdoor ambient at each home were sampled with Grimm Environmental Dust Monitoring (EDM) 107, during different seasonal periods of 2011 and 2012. In this study, the relationship between indoor and outdoor PM levels for particulate matter less than 10 micrometer (.m) (PM10), particulate matter less than 2.5.m (PM2.5) and particulate matter less than 1.0.m (PM1) were investigated. The mean concentration of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1.0 at living room used as baby-s room is higher than living and baby-s room (or bedroom) for three sampling campaigns. It is concluded that the household activities and environmental conditions are very important for PM concentrations in the indoor environments during the sampling periods. The amount of smokers, being near a main street and/or construction activities increased the PM concentration. This study is based on the assessment the relationship between indoor and outdoor PM levels and the household activities and environmental conditions

Keywords: Indoor air quality, particulate matter (PM), PM10, PM2.5, PM1.0.

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Authors: M. Vogiatzis, K. Perakis

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Spatial-explicit and up-to-date land use/land cover information is fundamental for spatial planning, land management, sustainable development, and sound decision-making. In the last decade, many satellite-derived land cover products at different spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions have been developed, such as the European Copernicus Land Cover product. However, more efficient and detailed information for land use/land cover is required at the regional or local scale. A typical Mediterranean basin with a complex landscape comprised of various forest types, crops, artificial surfaces, and wetlands was selected to test and develop our approach. In this study, we investigate the improvement of Copernicus Land Cover product (CLC2018) using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 pixel-based classification based on all available existing geospatial data (Forest Maps, LPIS, Natura2000 habitats, cadastral parcels, etc.). We examined and compared the performance of the Random Forest classifier for land use/land cover mapping. In total, 10 land use/land cover categories were recognized in Landsat 8 and 11 in Sentinel-2A. A comparison of the overall classification accuracies for 2018 shows that Landsat 8 classification accuracy was slightly higher than Sentinel-2A (82,99% vs. 80,30%). We concluded that the main land use/land cover types of CLC2018, even within a heterogeneous area, can be successfully mapped and updated according to CLC nomenclature. Future research should be oriented toward integrating spatiotemporal information from seasonal bands and spectral indexes in the classification process.

Keywords: land use/land cover, random forest, Landsat-8 OLI, Sentinel-2A MSI, Corine land cover

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Authors: A. S. Abdel-Razek, M. M. M. Abd-Elgawad

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The potential of entomopathogenic nematodes in suppressing T. squalida population on cauliflower from transplanting to harvest was evaluated. Significant reductions in plant infestation percentage and population density (/m2) were recorded throughout the plantation seasons, 2011 and 2012 before and after spraying the plants. The percent reduction in numbers/m2 was the highest in March for the treatments with Heterorhabditis indica Behera and Heterorhabditis bacteriophora Giza during the plantation season 2011, while at the plantation season 2012, the reduction in population density was the highest in January for Heterorhabditis Indica Behera and in February for H . bacteriophora Giza treatments. In a comparison test with conventional insecticides Hostathion and Lannate, there were no significant differences in control measures resulting from treatments with H. indica Behera, H. bacteriophora Giza and Lannate. At the plantation season is 2012. Also, the treatments reduced the economic threshold of T. squalida on cauliflower in this experiment as compared with before and after spraying with both the two entomopathogenic nematodes at both seasons 2011 and 2012. This means an increase in the marketability of heads harvested as a consequence of monthly treatments. 

Keywords: Cruciferous plants, chemical insecticides, microbial control, Scarabiead beetles, seasonal monitoring.

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Authors: Joshua N. Edokpayi, John O. Odiyo, Patience P. Shikwambana

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Water is a very rare natural resource in South Africa. Ga-Selati River is used for both domestic and industrial purposes. This study was carried out in order to assess the quality of Ga-Selati River in a mining area of Limpopo Province-Phalaborwa. The pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) were determined using a Crinson multimeter while turbidity was measured using a Labcon Turbidimeter. The concentrations of Al, Ca, Cd, Cr, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na and Pb were analysed in triplicate using a Varian 520 flame atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS) supplied by PerkinElmer, after acid digestion with nitric acid in a fume cupboard. The average pH of the river from eight different sampling sites was 8.00 and 9.38 in wet and dry season respectively. Higher EC values were determined in the dry season (138.7 mS/m) than in the wet season (96.93 mS/m). Similarly, TDS values were higher in dry (929.29 mg/L) than in the wet season (640.72 mg/L) season. These values exceeded the recommended guideline of South Africa Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF) for domestic water use (70 mS/m) and that of the World Health Organization (WHO) (600 mS/m), respectively. Turbidity varied between 1.78-5.20 and 0.95-2.37 NTU in both wet and dry seasons. Total hardness of 312.50 mg/L and 297.75 mg/L as the concentration of CaCO₃ was computed for the river in both the wet and the dry seasons and the river water was categorised as very hard. Mean concentration of the metals studied in both the wet and the dry seasons are: Na (94.06 mg/L and 196.3 mg/L), K (11.79 mg/L and 13.62 mg/L), Ca (45.60 mg/L and 41.30 mg/L), Mg (48.41 mg/L and 44.71 mg/L), Al (0.31 mg/L and 0.38 mg/L), Cd (0.01 mg/L and 0.01 mg/L), Cr (0.02 mg/L and 0.09 mg/L), Pb (0.05 mg/L and 0.06 mg/L), Mn (0.31 mg/L and 0.11 mg/L) and Fe (0.76 mg/L and 0.69 mg/L). Results from this study reveal that most of the metals were present in concentrations higher than the recommended guidelines of DWAF and WHO for domestic use and the protection of aquatic life.

Keywords: Contamination, mining activities, surface water, trace metals.

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Authors: Md. Khademul Islam Molla, Akimasa Sumi, M. Sayedur Rahman

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The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, instantaneous frequency, Hilbert spectrum, Chi-square distribution, anthropogenic impact.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Hasan Kalyoncu, Ayşe Güneş

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This study was carried on 12 determined stations, on Alara and Karpuz Streams, between January and November 2014. Seasonal samples were taken from the stations to analyze physicochemical parameters and Plecoptera Fauna in the water. The correlation between identified taxa and physicochemical data were tried to determine. As the result of the study, 2088 individuals from Plecoptera fauna were examined, 3 genera and 13 species were identified. The taxa of Brachyptera risi, Capnia bifrons, Dinocras cephalotes, Diura bicaudata, Isogenus nebecula, Isogenus sp., Isoperla grammatica, Leuctra hippopus, Leuctra inermis, Leuctra moselyi, Leuctra sp., Nemoura sp., Perla bipunctata, Perla marginata, Protonemura meyeri and Rhabdiopteryx acuminata were determined. In Alara Stream, the dominant species were; Isogenus nebecula at stations I and IV, Leuctra moselyi at station II, Leuctra hippopus at stations III, V and VI. In Karpuz Stream, Brachyptera risi was the dominant species in all stations. While Leuctra hippopus was the dominant taxon in Alara Stream, in Karpuz Stream it was Brachyptera risi. The highest diversity value was at station III and the lowest was at station VI in Alara Stream and the lowest diversity value was at station VI, while the highest was at station I in Karpuz Stream. In Alara Stream, the most similar stations were I and III, while in Karpuz Stream the highest similarity was determined between stations I and II. As for the evaluation result, the water quality of Alara and Karpuz Streams were determined as at oligosaprobic level.

Keywords: Alara Stream, Karpuz Stream, Plecoptera, water quality.

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Authors: Justina I. R. Udotong, Ime R. Udotong, Offiong U. Eka

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The concentrations of heavy metals in sediments of Qua Iboe River Estuary (QIRE) were monitored at four different sampling locations in wet and dry seasons. A preliminary survey to determine the four sampling stations along the river continuum showed that the area spanned between <0.1‰ salinity at the control station and 21.5‰ at the fourth station along the river continuum. A preliminary survey to determine the four sampling locations along the river estuary showed variations in salinity and other physicochemical parameters. The estuary was found to be polluted with heavy metals from point and nonpoint sources at varying degrees. Mean values of 7.80 mg/kg, 4.97 mg/kg and 2.80 mg/kg of nickel were obtained for sediment samples from Douglas creek, Qua Iboe and Atlantic sampling locations, respectively in the dry season. The wet season nickel concentrations were however lower. The entire study area was grossly contaminated by iron. At Douglas creek, the concentration of iron in sediment was 9274 ± 9.54mg/kg while copper, nickel, lead and vanadium were <0.5mg/kg each as compared to iron. Bioaccumulation was therefore suspected within the study area as values of 31.00 ± 0.79, 36.00 ± 0.10 and 55.00 ± 0.05 mg/kg of zinc were recorded in sediment at Douglas creek, Atlantic and the control sampling locations. The results from this study showed that the source of these heavy metals were from point sources like the corrosion of metal steel pipes from old bridges as well as oily sludge wastes from the Qua Iboe Terminal / tank farm located within the vicinity of the study area.

Keywords: Heavy metal, Qua Iboe River Estuary, seasonal variations, sediment.

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Authors: F. Stazi, C. Di Perna, C. Filiaci, A. Stazi

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Passive systems were born with the purpose of the greatest exploitation of solar energy in cold climates and high altitudes. They spread themselves until the 80-s all over the world without any attention to the specific climate and the summer behavior; this caused the deactivation of the systems due to a series of problems connected to the summer overheating, the complex management and the rising of the dust. Until today the European regulation limits only the winter consumptions without any attention to the summer behavior but, the recent European EN 15251 underlines the relevance of the indoor comfort, and the necessity of the analytic studies validation by monitoring case studies. In the porpose paper we demonstrate that the solar wall is an efficient system both from thermal comfort and energy saving point of view and it is the most suitable for our temperate climates because it can be used as a passive cooling sistem too. In particular the paper present an experimental and numerical analisys carried out on a case study with nine different solar passive systems in Ancona, Italy. We carried out a detailed study of the lodging provided by the solar wall by the monitoring and the evaluation of the indoor conditions. Analyzing the monitored data, on the base of recognized models of comfort (ISO, ASHRAE, Givoni-s BBCC), is emerged that the solar wall has an optimal behavior in the middle seasons. In winter phase this passive system gives more advantages in terms of energy consumptions than the other systems, because it gives greater heat gain and therefore smaller consumptions. In summer, when outside air temperature return in the mean seasonal value, the indoor comfort is optimal thanks to an efficient transversal ventilation activated from the same wall.

Keywords: Building envelope, energy saving, passive solarwall, thermal comfort.

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Authors: Kh. Ashrafi, Gh. A. Hoshyaripour

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Atmospheric stability plays the most important role in the transport and dispersion of air pollutants. Different methods are used for stability determination with varying degrees of complexity. Most of these methods are based on the relative magnitude of convective and mechanical turbulence in atmospheric motions. Richardson number, Monin-Obukhov length, Pasquill-Gifford stability classification and Pasquill–Turner stability classification, are the most common parameters and methods. The Pasquill–Turner Method (PTM), which is employed in this study, makes use of observations of wind speed, insolation and the time of day to classify atmospheric stability with distinguishable indices. In this study, a model is presented to determination of atmospheric stability conditions using PTM. As a case study, meteorological data of Mehrabad station in Tehran from 2000 to 2005 is applied to model. Here, three different categories are considered to deduce the pattern of stability conditions. First, the total pattern of stability classification is obtained and results show that atmosphere is 38.77%, 27.26%, 33.97%, at stable, neutral and unstable condition, respectively. It is also observed that days are mostly unstable (66.50%) while nights are mostly stable (72.55%). Second, monthly and seasonal patterns are derived and results indicate that relative frequency of stable conditions decrease during January to June and increase during June to December, while results for unstable conditions are exactly in opposite manner. Autumn is the most stable season with relative frequency of 50.69% for stable condition, whilst, it is 42.79%, 34.38% and 27.08% for winter, summer and spring, respectively. Hourly stability pattern is the third category that points out that unstable condition is dominant from approximately 03-15 GTM and 04-12 GTM for warm and cold seasons, respectively. Finally, correlation between atmospheric stability and CO concentration is achieved.

Keywords: Atmospheric stability, Pasquill-Turner classification, convective turbulence, mechanical turbulence, Tehran.

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Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc

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The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient.

In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.

Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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