Search results for: saturated incidence rate

Authors: Er, A. C., Rosli, M. H., Asmahani A., Mohamad Naim M. R., Harsuzilawati M.

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Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection that has peaked to an alarming rate in recent decades. It can be found in tropical and sub-tropical climate. In Malaysia, dengue has been declared as one of the national health threat to the public. This study aimed to map the spatial distributions of dengue cases in the district of Hulu Langat, Selangor via a combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial statistic tools. Data related to dengue was gathered from the various government health agencies. The location of dengue cases was geocoded using a handheld GPS Juno SB Trimble. A total of 197 dengue cases occurring in 2003 were used in this study. Those data then was aggregated into sub-district level and then converted into GIS format. The study also used population or demographic data as well as the boundary of Hulu Langat. To assess the spatial distribution of dengue cases three spatial statistics method (Moran-s I, average nearest neighborhood (ANN) and kernel density estimation) were applied together with spatial analysis in the GIS environment. Those three indices were used to analyze the spatial distribution and average distance of dengue incidence and to locate the hot spot of dengue cases. The results indicated that the dengue cases was clustered (p < 0.01) when analyze using Moran-s I with z scores 5.03. The results from ANN analysis showed that the average nearest neighbor ratio is less than 1 which is 0.518755 (p < 0.0001). From this result, we can expect the dengue cases pattern in Hulu Langat district is exhibiting a cluster pattern. The z-score for dengue incidence within the district is -13.0525 (p < 0.0001). It was also found that the significant spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidences occurs at an average distance of 380.81 meters (p < 0.0001). Several locations especially residential area also had been identified as the hot spots of dengue cases in the district.

Keywords: Dengue, geographic information system (GIS), spatial analysis, spatial statistics

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Authors: Syed Muzyan Shahzad, Liu Jianxin, Asim Shahzad, Muhammad Sharjeel Raza, Sun Ya, Fanidi Meryem

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Electrical resistivity investigation was conducted in vicinity of Tarbela Ghazi, in order to study the subsurface layer with a view of determining the depth to the aquifer and thickness of groundwater potential zones. Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) using Schlumberger array was carried out at 16 VES stations. Well logging data at four tube wells have been used to mark the super saturated zones with great discharge rate. The present paper shows a geoelectrical identification of the lithology and an estimate of the relationship between the resistivity and Dar Zarrouk parameters (transverse unit resistance and longitudinal unit conductance). The VES results revealed both homogeneous and heterogeneous nature of the subsurface strata. Aquifer is unconfined to confine in nature, and at few locations though perched aquifer has been identified, groundwater potential zones are developed in unconsolidated deposits layers and more than seven geo-electric layers are observed at some VES locations. Saturated zones thickness ranges from 5 m to 150 m, whereas at few area aquifer is beyond 150 m thick. The average anisotropy, transvers resistance and longitudinal conductance values are 0.86 %, 35750.9821 Ω.m², 0.729 Siemens, respectively. The transverse unit resistance values fluctuate all over the aquifer system, whereas below at particular depth high values are observed, that significantly associated with the high transmissivity zones. The groundwater quality in all analyzed samples is below permissible limit according to World Health Standard (WHO).

Keywords: Geoelectric layers, Dar Zarrouk parameters, Aquifer, Electro-stratigraphic.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee, W. Preechaporn, S. Chumkiew

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This study investigated the number of Aedes larvae, the key breeding sites of Aedes sp., and the relationship between climatic factors and the incidence of DHF in Samui Islands. We conducted our questionnaire and larval surveys from randomly selected 105 households in Samui Islands in July-September 2006. Pearson-s correlation coefficient was used to explore the primary association between the DHF incidence and all climatic factors. Multiple stepwise regression technique was then used to fit the statistical model. The results showed that the positive indoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, and plastic tanks. The positive outdoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, plastic tanks, used cans, tires, plastic bottles, discarded objects, pot saucers, plant pots, and areca husks. All Ae. albopictus larval indices (i.e., CI, HI, and BI) were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in this area. These larval indices were higher than WHO standard. This indicated a high risk of DHF transmission at Samui Islands. The multiple stepwise regression model was y = –288.80 + 11.024xmean temp. The mean temperature was positively associated with the DHF incidence in this area.

Keywords: Dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Aedes indices, Climatic factors, Temperature.

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Authors: Mike Climstein, Joe Walsh, John Best, Ian Timothy Heazlewood, Stephen Burke, Jyrki Kettunen, Kent Adams, Mark DeBeliso

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Recently, the health of retired National Football League players, particularly lineman has been investigated. A number of studies have reported increased cardiometabolic risk, premature cardiovascular disease and incidence of type 2 diabetes. Rugby union players have somatotypes very similar to National Football League players which suggests that rugby players may have similar health risks. The International Golden Oldies World Rugby Festival (GORF) provided a unique opportunity to investigate the demographics of veteran rugby players. METHODOLOGIES: A cross-sectional, observational study was completed using an online web-based questionnaire that consisted of medical history and physiological measures. Data analysis was completed using a one sample t-test (<50yrs versus >50yrs) and Chi-square test. RESULTS: A total of 216 veteran rugby competitors (response rate = 6.8%) representing 10 countries, aged 35-72 yrs (mean 51.2, S.D. ±8.0), participated in the online survey. As a group, the incidence of current smokers was low at 8.8% (avg 72.4 cigs/wk) whilst the percentage consuming alcohol was high (93.1% (avg 11.2 drinks/wk). Competitors reported the following top six chronic diseases/disorders; hypertension (18.6%), arthritis (OA/RA, 11.5%), asthma (9.3%), hyperlipidemia (8.2%), diabetes (all types, 7.5%) and gout (6%), there were significant differences between groups with regard to cancer (all types) and migraines. When compared to the Australian general population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data, n=18,000), GORF competitors had a significantly lower incidence of anxiety (p<0.01), arthritis (p<0.06), depression (p<.01) however, a significantly higher incidence of diabetes (p<0.03) and hypertension (p<0.01). The GORF competitors also reported taking the following prescribed medications; antihypertensive (13%), hypolipidemics (8%), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (6%), and anticoagulants (4%). Significant differences between groups were observed in antihypertensives, anticoagulants and hypolipidemics. There were significant (p<0.05) differences between groups (<50yrs versus >50yrs) with regard to height (180 vs 177cm), weight (97.6 vs 93.1Kg-s), BMI (30 vs 29.7kg/m2) and waist circumference (85.7 vs 93.1cm) however, there were no differences in subsequent parameters of systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C, triglycerides-C or fasting plasma glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first collection of demographics on this cohort. GORF participants demonstrated increased cardiometabolic risk with regard to the incidence of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Preventative strategies should be developed to reduce this risk with education of these risks for future participants.

Keywords: Masters athlete, rugby union, risk factors, chronic disease

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Authors: Raja Singh Khela, R. K. Bansal, K. S. Sandhu, A. K. Goel

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Self-Excited Induction Generator (SEIG) builds up voltage while it enters in its magnetic saturation region. Due to non-linear magnetic characteristics, the performance analysis of SEIG involves cumbersome mathematical computations. The dependence of air-gap voltage on saturated magnetizing reactance can only be established at rated frequency by conducting a laboratory test commonly known as synchronous run test. But, there is no laboratory method to determine saturated magnetizing reactance and air-gap voltage of SEIG at varying speed, terminal capacitance and other loading conditions. For overall analysis of SEIG, prior information of magnetizing reactance, generated frequency and air-gap voltage is essentially required. Thus, analytical methods are the only alternative to determine these variables. Non-existence of direct mathematical relationship of these variables for different terminal conditions has forced the researchers to evolve new computational techniques. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are very useful for solution of such complex problems, as they do not require any a priori information about the system. In this paper, an attempt is made to use cascaded neural networks to first determine the generated frequency and magnetizing reactance with varying terminal conditions and then air-gap voltage of SEIG. The results obtained from the ANN model are used to evaluate the overall performance of SEIG and are found to be in good agreement with experimental results. Hence, it is concluded that analysis of SEIG can be carried out effectively using ANNs.

Keywords: Self-Excited Induction Generator, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Exciting Capacitance and Saturated magnetizingreactance.

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Authors: C. C. Chen, C. W. Hun, C. J. Wang, C. Y. Chen, J. S. Lin, K. J. Huang

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Cesium iodide (CsI) melt was injected into anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) template and was solidified to CsI column. The controllable AAO channel size (10~500 nm) can makes CsI column size from 10 to 500 nm in diameter. In order to have a shorter light irradiate from each singe CsI column top to bottom the AAO template was coated a TiO2 nano-film. The TiO2 film acts a refraction film and makes X-ray has a shorter irradiation path in the CsI crystal making a stronger the photo-electron signal. When the incidence light irradiate from air (R=1.0) to CsI’s first surface (R=1.84) the first refraction happen, the first refraction continue into TiO2 film (R=2.88) and produces the low angle of the second refraction. Then the second refraction continue into AAO wall (R=1.78) and produces the third refraction after refractions between CsI and AAO wall (R=1.78) produce the fourth refraction. The incidence light through TiO2 filmand the first surface of CsI then arrive to the second surface of CsI. Therefore, the TiO2 film can has shorter refraction path of incidence light and increase the photo-electron conversion efficiency.

Keywords: Cesium iodide, AAO, TiO2, Refraction, X-ray.

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Authors: Mu-Jen Young, Cheng-Yen Wu, Wen-Yuan Hsieh

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Iron oxide nanoparticle was synthesized by reactive-precipitation method followed by high speed centrifuge and phase transfer in order to stabilized nanoparticles in the solvent. Particle size of SPIO was 8.2 nm by SEM, and the hydraulic radius was 17.5 nm by dynamic light scattering method. Coercivity and saturated magnetism were determined by VSM (vibrating sample magnetometer), coercivity of nanoparticle was lower than 10 Hc, and the saturated magnetism was higher than 65 emu/g. Stabilized SPIO was then transferred to aqueous phase by reacted with excess amount of poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) silane. After filtration and dialysis, the SPIO T2 contrast agent was ready to use. The hydraulic radius of final product was about 70~100 nm, the relaxation rates R2 (1/T2) measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was larger than 200(sec-1).

Keywords: Contrast Agent, Iron Oxide Nanoparticle, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Nanoparticle Stabilization

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Authors: Amirreza Attarzadeh

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This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic variables, e.g., inflation rate, interest rate, trade openness and the growth rate of GDP, with domestic investment. The present study also draws on conceptual economy related theories to verify the negative effect of interest rates on domestic investment. However, trade openness and growth rate had a positive correlation, and the inflation rate may have a positive or negative impact on domestic investment.

Keywords: Inflation rate, growth rate of GDP, interest rate, trade openness, domestic investment.

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly-observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: Deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis.

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Authors: R.Karami, B.Kamkari, K.Kashefi

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Applying corona wind as a novel technique can lead to a great level of heat and mass transfer augmentation by using very small amount of energy. Enhancement of forced flow evaporation rate by applying electric field (corona wind) has been experimentally evaluated in this study. Corona wind produced by a fine wire electrode which is charged with positive high DC voltage impinges to water surface and leads to evaporation enhancement by disturbing the saturated air layer over water surface. The study was focused on the effect of corona wind velocity, electrode spacing and air flow velocity on the level of evaporation enhancement. Two sets of experiments, i.e. with and without electric field, have been conducted. Data obtained from the first experiment were used as reference for evaluation of evaporation enhancement at the presence of electric field. Applied voltages ranged from corona threshold voltage to spark over voltage at 1 kV increments. The results showed that corona wind has great enhancement effect on water evaporation rate, but its effectiveness gradually diminishes by increasing air flow velocity. Maximum enhancements were 7.3 and 3.6 for air velocities of 0.125 and 1.75 m/s, respectively.

Keywords: Electrohydodynamics (EHD), corona wind, high electric field, Evaporation enhancement

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Authors: O. P. Sharma, V. Janyani, S. Sancheti

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Data rate, tolerable bit error rate or frame error rate and range & coverage are the key performance requirement of a communication link. In this paper performance of MFSK link is analyzed in terms of bit error rate, number of errors and total number of data processed. In the communication link model proposed, which is implemented using MATLAB block set, an improvement in BER is observed. Different parameters which effects and enables to keep BER low in M-ary communication system are also identified.

Keywords: Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN), Bit Error Rate (BER), Frequency Shift Keying (FSK), Orthogonal Signaling.

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Authors: A. Kaćunić, M. Ćosić, N. Kuzmanić

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Interaction between mixing and crystallization is often ignored despite the fact that it affects almost every aspect of the operation including nucleation, growth, and maintenance of the crystal slurry. This is especially pronounced in multiple impeller systems where flow complexity is increased. By choosing proper mixing parameters, what closely depends on the knowledge of the hydrodynamics in a mixing vessel, the process of batch cooling crystallization may considerably be improved. The values that render useful information when making this choice are mixing time and power consumption. The predominant motivation for this work was to investigate the extent to which radial dual impeller configuration influences mixing time, power consumption and consequently the values of metastable zone width and nucleation rate. In this research, crystallization of borax was conducted in a 15 dm3 baffled batch cooling crystallizer with an aspect ratio (H/T) of 1.3. Mixing was performed using two straight blade turbines (4-SBT) mounted on the same shaft that generated radial fluid flow. Experiments were conducted at different values of N/NJS ratio (impeller speed/ minimum impeller speed for complete suspension), D/T ratio (impeller diameter/crystallizer diameter), c/D ratio (lower impeller off-bottom clearance/impeller diameter), and s/D ratio (spacing between impellers/impeller diameter). Mother liquor was saturated at 30°C and was cooled at the rate of 6°C/h. Its concentration was monitored in line by Na-ion selective electrode. From the values of supersaturation that was monitored continuously over process time, it was possible to determine the metastable zone width and subsequently the nucleation rate using the Mersmann’s nucleation criterion. For all applied dual impeller configurations, the mixing time was determined by potentiometric method using a pulse technique, while the power consumption was determined using a torque meter produced by Himmelstein & Co. Results obtained in this investigation show that dual impeller configuration significantly influences the values of mixing time, power consumption as well as the metastable zone width and nucleation rate. A special attention should be addressed to the impeller spacing considering the flow interaction that could be more or less pronounced depending on the spacing value.

Keywords: Dual impeller crystallizer, mixing time, power consumption, metastable zone width, nucleation rate.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

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Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: L. B. Jayasinghe, D. P. Thambiratnam, N. Perera, J. H. A. R. Jayasooriya

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Due to increased number of terrorist attacks in recent years, loads induced by explosions need to be incorporated in building designs. For safer performance of a structure, its foundation should have sufficient strength and stability. Therefore, prior to any reconstruction or rehabilitation of a building subjected to blast, it is important to examine adverse effects on the foundation caused by blast induced ground shocks. This paper evaluates the effects of a buried explosion on a pile foundation. It treats the dynamic response of the pile in saturated sand, using explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element software LS-DYNA. The blast induced wave propagation in the soil and the horizontal deformation of pile are presented and the results are discussed. Further, a parametric study is carried out to evaluate the effect of varying the explosive shape on the pile response. This information can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of piled foundations to credible blast events as well as develop guidance for their design.

Keywords: Underground explosion, numerical simulation, pilefoundation, saturated soil.

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Authors: L. Hammadi, D. Boukhaloua

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In this study, a numerical model was developed to predict cavitation phenomena around a NACA0009 profile. The equations of the Rayleigh-Plesset and modified Rayleigh-Plesset are used to modeling the cavitation by bubble around a NACA0009 profile. The study shows that the distributions of pressures around extrados and intrados of profile for angle of incidence equal zero are the same. The study also shows that the increase in the angle of incidence makes it possible to differentiate the pressures on the intrados and the extrados.

Keywords: Cavitation, NACA0009 profile, flow, pressure coefficient.

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Authors: Hui Liu, Haiyang Quan

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This paper To get the angle value with a MEMS rate gyroscope in some specific field, the usual method is to make an integral operation to the rate output, which will lead the error cumulating effect. So the rate gyro is not suitable. MEMS rate integrating gyroscope (MRIG) will solve this problem. A DSP system has been developed to implement the control arithmetic. The system can measure the angle of rotation directly by the control loops that make the sensor work in whole-angle mode. Modeling the system with MATLAB, desirable results of angle outputs are got, which prove the feasibility of the control arithmetic.

Keywords: Rate gyroscope, Rate integrating gyroscope, Whole angle mode, MATLAB modeling, DSP control.

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Authors: M. Kakavand, S. A. Naeini

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Dynamic properties of soil in small strains, especially for geotechnical engineers, are important for describing the behavior of soil and estimation of the earth structure deformations and structures, especially significant structures. This paper presents the effect of density on the shear modulus and damping ratio of saturated clean sand at various isotropic confining pressures. For this purpose, the specimens were compared with two different relative densities, loose Dr = 30% and dense Dr = 70%. Dynamic parameters were attained from a series of consolidated undrained fixed – free type torsional resonant column tests in small strain. Sand No. 161 is selected for this paper. The experiments show that by increasing sand density and confining pressure, the shear modulus increases and the damping ratio decreases.

Keywords: Dynamic properties, shear modulus, damping ratio, clean sand, density, confining pressure, resonant column/torsional simple shear.

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Authors: S. A. Naeini, M. Hamidzadeh

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Today, with the daily advancement of geotechnical engineering on soil improvement and modification of the physical properties and shear strength of soil, it is now possible to construct structures with high-volume and high service load on loose sandy soils. One of such methods is using micropiles, which are mostly used to control asymmetrical subsidence, increase bearing capacity, and prevent soil liquefaction. This study examined the improvement of Anzali's saturated loose silty sand using 192 micropiles with a length of 8 meters and diameter of 75 mm. Bandar-e Anzali is one of Iran's coastal populated cities which are located in a high-seismicity region. The effects of the insertion of micropiles on prevention of liquefaction and improvement of subsidence were examined through comparison of the results of Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and Plate Load Test (PLT) before and after implementation of the micropiles. The results show that the SPT values and the ultimate bearing capacity of silty sand increased after the implementation of the micropiles. Therefore, the installation of micropiles increases the strength of silty sand improving the resistance of soil against liquefaction.

Keywords: Soil improvement, silty sand, micropiles, SPT, PLT, strength.

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Authors: S. Chumkiew, W. Srisang, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study investigated the climatic factors associated with Influenza incidence in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Southern Thailand. Climatic factors comprised of the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, wind speed, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. A multiple stepwise regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The result showed that the temperature difference and percent of rainy days were positively associated with Influenza incidence in Nakhon Si Thammarat.

Keywords: Influenza, Climatic Factor, Relative Humidity, Rainy day, Wind Speed.

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Authors: Vikas Tewari, Shivendra Tewari, K. R. Pardasani

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Calcium is a vital second messenger used in signal transduction. Calcium controls secretion, cell movement, muscular contraction, cell differentiation, ciliary beating and so on. Two theories have been used to simplify the system of reaction-diffusion equations of calcium into a single equation. One is excess buffer approximation (EBA) which assumes that mobile buffer is present in excess and cannot be saturated. The other is rapid buffer approximation (RBA), which assumes that calcium binding to buffer is rapid compared to calcium diffusion rate. In the present work, attempt has been made to develop a model for calcium diffusion under excess buffer approximation in neuron cells. This model incorporates the effect of [Na+] influx on [Ca2+] diffusion,variable calcium and sodium sources, sodium-calcium exchange protein, Sarcolemmal Calcium ATPase pump, sodium and calcium channels. The proposed mathematical model leads to a system of partial differential equations which have been solved numerically using Forward Time Centered Space (FTCS) approach. The numerical results have been used to study the relationships among different types of parameters such as buffer concentration, association rate, calcium permeability.

Keywords: Excess buffer approximation, Na+ influx, sodium calcium exchange protein, sarcolemmal calcium atpase pump, forward time centred space.

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Authors: Dongjoo Kim, Chang-Sik Son, Won-Seok Kang

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Adequate sleep affects various parts of one’s overall physical and mental life. As one of the methods in determining the appropriate amount of sleep, this research presents a heart rate based sleep quality index. In order to evaluate sleep quality using the heart rate, sleep data from 280 subjects taken over one month are used. Their sleep data are categorized by a three-part heart rate range. After categorizing, some features are extracted, and the statistical significances are verified for these features. The results show that some features of this sleep quality index model have statistical significance. Thus, this heart rate based sleep quality index may be a useful discriminator of sleep.

Keywords: Sleep, sleep quality, heart rate, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Ahmed Arkoazi, Hussein Znad, Ranjeet Utikar

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The synergistic impact and optimization of gas flow rate, concentration of CO₂, and light intensity on CO₂ biofixation rate were investigated using wastewater as a medium to cultivate Chlorella vulgaris under different conditions (gas flow rate 1-8 L/min), CO₂ concentration (0.03-7%), and light intensity (150-400 µmol/m².s)). Response Surface Methodology and Box-Behnken experimental Design were applied to find optimum values for gas flow rate, CO₂ concentration, and light intensity. The optimum values of the three independent variables (gas flow rate, concentration of CO₂, and light intensity) and desirability were 7.5 L/min, 3.5%, and 400 µmol/m².s, and 0.904, respectively. The highest amount of biomass produced and CO₂ biofixation rate at optimum conditions were 5.7 g/L, 1.23 gL^-1d^-1, respectively. The synergistic effect between gas flow rate and concentration of CO₂, and between gas flow rate and light intensity was significant on the three responses, while the effect between CO₂ concentration and light intensity was less significant on CO₂ biofixation rate. The results of this study could be highly helpful when using microalgae for CO₂ biofixation in wastewater treatment.

Keywords: Synergistic impact, optimization, CO2 biofixation, airlift reactor.

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Authors: Camilo Aldana, Sara Cabra, Carlos A. Ospina, Fredy Carvajal, Fernando Rodríguez

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It has been proven that early establishment of microbial flora in digestive tract of ruminants, has a beneficial effect on their health condition and productivity. A probiotic compound, made from five bacteria isolated from adult bovine cattle, was dosed to 15 Holstein newborn calves in order to measure its capacity of improving body weight gain and reduce diarrhea incidence. The test was performed in the municipality of Cajicá (Colombia), at 2580 m.a.s.l., throughout rainy season, with environmental temperature that oscillated between 4 to 25 °C. Five calves were allotted to control (no addition of probiotic). Treatments 1, and 2 (5 calves per group) received 10 ml Probiotic mix 1 and 2, respectively. Probiotic mixes 1 and 2 where similar in microbial composition but different in production process. Probiotics were added to the morning milk and dosed on a daily basis by a month and then on a weekly basis for three additional months. Diarrhea incidence was measured by observance of number of animals affected in each group; each animal was weighed up on a daily basis for obtaining weight gain and rumen fluid samples were extracted with oro-esophageal catheter for determining level of fiber and grain consumption.

Keywords: Calve, diarrhea, probiotic, rumen microorganisms.

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Authors: Meghna Maiti, Utpal Roy

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In India, till today, malaria is considered to be one of the significant infectious diseases. Most of the cases regional geographical factors are the principal elements to let the places a unique identity. The incidence and intensity of infectious diseases are quite common and affect different places differently across the nation. The present study aims to identify spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots of malaria incidence and their seasonal variation during the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20 in the state of West Bengal in India. As malaria is a vector-borne disease, numbers of positive test results are to be reported by the laboratories to the Department of Health, West Bengal (through the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme). Data on block-wise monthly malaria positive cases are collected from Health Management Information System (HMIS), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Moran’s I statistic is performed to assess the spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence. The spatial statistical analysis mainly Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) cluster and Local Geary Cluster are applied to find the spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots and seasonal variability of malaria incidence over the three periods. The result indicates that the spatial distribution of malaria is clustered during each of the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20. The analysis shows that in all the cases, high-high clusters are primarily concentrated in the western (Purulia, Paschim Medinipur districts), central (Maldah, Murshidabad districts) and the northern parts (Jalpaiguri, Kochbihar districts) and low-low clusters are found in the lower Gangetic plain (central-south) mainly and northern parts of West Bengal during the stipulated period. Apart from this seasonal variability inter-year variation is also visible. The results from different methods of this study indicate significant variation in the spatial distribution of malaria incidence in West Bengal and high incidence clusters are primarily persistently concentrated over the western part during 2012-2020 along with a strong seasonal pattern with a peak in rainy and autumn. By applying the different techniques in identifying the different degrees of incidence zones of malaria across West Bengal, some specific pockets or malaria hotspots are marked and identified where the incidence rates are quite harmonious over the different periods. From this analysis, it is clear that malaria is not a disease that is distributed uniformly across the state; some specific pockets are more prone to be affected in particular seasons of each year. Disease ecology and spatial patterns must be the factors in explaining the real factors for the higher incidence of this issue within those affected districts. The further study mainly by applying empirical approach is needed for discerning the strong relationship between communicable disease and other associated affecting factors.

Keywords: Malaria, infectious diseases, spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation, LISA.

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Authors: Sabrin M. Al-Jafaeri, Nuri S. Madi, Mohamed H. Nahaisi

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This study was conducted to investigate the incidence of pathogenic bacteria: Salmonella, Shigella, Escherichia coli O157 and Staphylococcus aureus in cakes and tarts collected from thirtyfive confectionery producing and selling premises located within Tripoli city, Libya. The results revealed an incidence of S. aureus with 94.4 and 48.0 %, E. coli O157 with 14.7 and 4.0 % and Salmonella sp. with 5.9 and 8.0 % in cakes and tarts samples respectively; while Shigella was not detected in all samples. In order to determine the source of these pathogenic bacteria, cotton swabs were taken from the hands of workers on the production line, the surfaces of preparation tables and cream whipping instruments. The results showed that the cotton swabs obtained from the hands of workers contained S. aureus and Salmonella sp. with an incidence of 42.9 and 2.9 %, the cotton swabs obtained from the surfaces of preparation tables 22.9 and 2.9 % and the cotton swabs obtained from the cream whipping instruments 14.3 and 0.0 % respectively; while E. coli O157 and Shigella sp. were not detected in all swabs. Additionally, other bacteria were isolated from the hands of workers and the Surfaces of producing equipments included: Aeromonas sp., Pseudomonas sp., E. coli, Klebsiella sp., Enterobacter sp., Citrobacter sp., Proteus sp., Serratia sp. and Acinetobacter sp. These results indicate that some of the cakes and tarts might pose threat to consumer's health. Meanwhile, occurrences of pathogenic bacteria on the hands of those who are working in production line and the surfaces of equipments reflect poor hygienic practices at most confectionery premises examined in this study. Thus, firm and continuous surveillance of these premises is needed to insure the consumer's health and safety.

Keywords: Pathogenic bacteria, Cakes, Tarts, Confectionery producing and selling premises.

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Authors: Payam Parvasi, Mohammad Hossein Sedaghat, Reza Janamiri, Amir Hatampour

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In this work, several ASP solutions were flooded into fractured models initially saturated with heavy oil at a constant flow rate and different geometrical characteristics of fracture. The ASP solutions are constituted from 2 polymers i.e. a synthetic polymer, hydrolyzed polyacrylamide as well as a biopolymer, a surfactant and 2types of alkaline. The results showed that using synthetic hydrolyzed polyacrylamide polymer increases ultimate oil recovery; however, type of alkaline does not play a significant rule on oil recovery. In addition, position of the injection well respect to the fracture system has remarkable effects on ASP flooding. For instance increasing angle of fractures with mean flow direction causes more oil recovery and delays breakthrough time. This work can be accounted as a comprehensive survey on ASP flooding which considers most of effective factors in this chemical EOR method.

Keywords: ASP Flooding, Fractured System, Displacement, Heavy Oil.

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Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

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A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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Authors: Raad Nari, Maura Moriaty, Maha T. Barakat

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Introduction: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are a new class of oral anti-diabetic drugs with a unique mechanism of action. They are used to improve glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes by enhancing urinary glucose excretion. In the UAE, there has been certainly an increased use of these medications. As with any new medication, there are safety considerations related to their use in patients with type two diabetes. A retrospective study was conducted at the three main centres of the Imperial College London Diabetes Centre. Methodology: All patients in electronic database (Diamond) from October 2014 to October 2017 were included with a minimum of six months usage of sodium glucose co-transporter inhibitors that comprise canagliflozin, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin. There were 15 paired sample biochemical and clinical correlations. The analysis was done at the start of the study, three months and six months apart. SPSS version 24 was used for this study. Conclusion: This study of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors used showed significant reductions in weight, glycated haemoglobin A1C, systolic and diastolic blood pressures. As the case with systematic reviews, there were similar changes in liver enzymes, raised total cholesterol, low density lipopoptein and high density lipoprotein. There was slight improvement in estimated glomerular filtration rate too. Our analysis also showed that they increased in the incidence of urinary tract symptoms and incidence of urinary tract infections.

Keywords: SGLT2 inhibitors dapagliflozin empagliflozin canagliflozin, adverse effects, amputation diabetic ketoacidosis DKA, urinary tract infection.

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Authors: N. S. El-Mougy, M. M. Abdel-Kader, H. M. Abouelnasr

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The efficacy of two essential oils applied as a bean seed dressing followed by seedlings foliar spray with four commercial disinfectants against root rot and wilt incidence was evaluated under field conditions. The essential oils, grape seed and peppermint oils and the disinfectants, Gold, Revarest, Klenva, Malva were applied. Chitosan and the fungicide Topsin-M were used as comparison treatment. Essential oils individually or combined with disinfectants were applied as a bean seed dressing. Furthermore, emerged bean plants were sprayed with the same treatments. Under laboratory conditions, growth inhibition effect was observed for the isolated, tested fungi R. solani and F. oxysporum when exposed to essential oils individually or combined with disinfectants. A high inhibitor effect was recorded for peppermint followed by grape seed oils. Concentrations of 1% and 2% of chitosan as well as Topsin M at 400 ppm showed complete reduction (100%) in the two fungal growths. Under field conditions, the obtained results showed that the applied treatments of chitosan had a superior effect on root rot and wilt disease incidence compared with other tested treatments. It was found that seed coating treatment provides good protection of emerged green bean seeds against the root pathogens attack compared with the fungicide and control treatments. Also, the application of seed dressing with essential oils accompanied by seedling spray demonstrated similar results. It was observed that essential oils had an enhancing effect against disease incidence when combined with disinfectants compared with their application. The obvious yield increase was significantly higher in all applied treatments than in fungicide and control.

Keywords: Bean, disinfectants, essential oils, root rot, wilt.

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Authors: Aleksandre Ergeshidze

Abstract:

The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.

Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression, contractionary depreciation, dollarization, nominal exchange rate, structural vector autoregression.

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