Search results for: Earthquake forecast

Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

Abstract:

Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Wenlong Liu, Yucheng Liu

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This paper introduces the application of seismic wave method in earthquake prediction and early estimation. The advantages of the seismic wave method over the traditional earthquake prediction method are demonstrated. An example is presented in this study to show the accuracy and efficiency of using the seismic wave method in predicting a medium-sized earthquake swarm occurred in Wencheng, Zhejiang, China. By applying this method, correct predictions were made on the day after this earthquake swarm started and the day the maximum earthquake occurred, which provided scientific bases for governmental decision-making.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, earthquake swarm, seismicactivity method, seismic wave method, Wencheng earthquake

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Xiang Wen, Toru Takahashi

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After a strong earthquake occurs, a secondary disaster due to strong aftershocks, flood, landslide or heavy snow can possible to occur and the secondary disaster due to resident-s action also can possible to happen. However, until now seldom researchers have paid attention at it. This paper focused on the Inhabitant-s action after the strong earthquake occurs when a terrible even becomes calm. An inappropriate behavior of people with disadvantaged climate after the worse earthquake can bring a tragedy to their life.

Keywords: Sichuan Earthquake, Secondary Disaster, Inhabitant's Action, inappropriate behavior.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Andi Putra, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Precipitation forecast is important in avoid incident of natural disaster which can cause loss in involved area. This review paper involves three techniques from artificial intelligence namely logistic regression, decisions tree, and random forest which used in making precipitation forecast. These combination techniques through VAR model in finding advantages and strength for every technique in forecast process. Data contains variables from rain domain. Adaptation of artificial intelligence techniques involved on rain domain enables the process to be easier and systematic for precipitation forecast.

Keywords: Logistic regression, decisions tree, random forest, VAR model.

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Authors: Bin Mu, Site Li, Shijin Yuan

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Under the circumstance of environment deterioration, people are increasingly concerned about the quality of the environment, especially air quality. As a result, it is of great value to give accurate and timely forecast of AQI (air quality index). In order to simplify influencing factors of air quality in a city, and forecast the city’s AQI tomorrow, this study used MATLAB software and adopted the method of constructing a mathematic model of PCA-GABP to provide a solution. To be specific, this study firstly made principal component analysis (PCA) of influencing factors of AQI tomorrow including aspects of weather, industry waste gas and IAQI data today. Then, we used the back propagation neural network model (BP), which is optimized by genetic algorithm (GA), to give forecast of AQI tomorrow. In order to verify validity and accuracy of PCA-GABP model’s forecast capability. The study uses two statistical indices to evaluate AQI forecast results (normalized mean square error and fractional bias). Eventually, this study reduces mean square error by optimizing individual gene structure in genetic algorithm and adjusting the parameters of back propagation model. To conclude, the performance of the model to forecast AQI is comparatively convincing and the model is expected to take positive effect in AQI forecast in the future.

Keywords: AQI forecast, principal component analysis, genetic algorithm, back propagation neural network model.

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Authors: Morteza Jiryaei Sharahi

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In this paper, the effect of width and height of the model on the earthquake response in the finite element method is discussed. For this purpose an earth dam as a soil structure under earthquake has been considered. Various dam-foundation models are analyzed by Plaxis, a finite element package for solving geotechnical problems. The results indicate considerable differences in the seismic responses.

Keywords: Geometry dimensions, finite element, earthquake

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Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar

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By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.

Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

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Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

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Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of information and communication technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies. In this study, input-output (IO) and statistical approaches are used as analysis instruments. More specifically, this study employs Leontief IO coefficients and constrained multivariate regression (CMR) model in order to achieve the purpose. The periods of initial and forecast in this study are 2005 and 2015, respectively. In this study, ICT is represented by ICT capital stocks. This study conducts two levels of analysis, namely macro and micro. The results of macro level analysis show that the dynamics of Japanese economies on the forecast period, relative to the initial period, are not so high. We focus on (1) commerce, (2) business services and office supplies, and (3) personal services sectors when conducting the analysis of the micro level. Further, we analyze its specific IO coefficients when doing this analysis. The results of the analysis explain that ICT gives a strong influence on the changes of these coefficients from initial to forecast periods.

Keywords: Forecast, ICT, Structural changes, Japanese economies.

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Authors: J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, D. Blumberga

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The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included 6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of 2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP growth.

Keywords: Forecast models, hazardous waste management, sustainable development, waste management indicators.

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Authors: Tejinder Singh

Abstract:

When earthquakes strike the city it results in great loss of lives. The present paper talks about a new innovative design system (MegEifel) for buildings which has a mechanism to mitigate deaths in case any earthquake strikes the city. If buildings will be designed according to MegEifel design then the occupants of the building will be safe even when they are in sleep or are doing day wise activities during the time earthquake strikes. The core structure is suggested to be designed on the principle that more deep the foundations are, the harder it is to uproot the structure. The buildings will have an Eifel rod dug deep into earth which will help save lives in tall buildings when earthquake strikes. This design takes a leverage of protective shells to save lives.

Keywords: Structure, MegEifel, Save, Life, Earthquake, Design

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Authors: Jagadish H. Pujar

Abstract:

Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), Data DependantFactors(DDF), Model Dependent Factors(MDF), StatisticalError(SE), Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF), MiscellaneousError(ME).

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Authors: M. Ionascu, L. Olimid

Abstract:

In the last few years, several steps were taken in order to improve the quality of corporate governance for Romanian listed companies. Higher standards of corporate governance is documented in the literature to lead to a better information environment, and, consequently, to increase analysts forecast accuracy. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which corporate governance policies affect analysts forecasts for companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange. The results showed that there is indeed a negative correlation between a corporate governance index – used as a proxy for the quality of corporate governance practices - and analysts forecast errors.

Keywords: corporate governance, aanalysts' forecasts, information environment

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Authors: Dimas T. Anantyo, Zsa-Zsa A. Laksmi, Adhie N. Radityo, Arsita E. Rini, Gatot I. Sarosa

Abstract:

A six-point-two-magnitude earthquake rocked Mamuju District, West Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, on 15 January 2021, causing significant health issues for the affected community, particularly among vulnerable populations such as neonates and children. The aim of this study is to examine and describe the diseases diagnosed in the pediatric population in Mamuju 14 days after the earthquake. This study uses a prospective observational study of the pediatric population presenting at West Sulawesi Regional Hospital, Mamuju Regional Public Hospital, and Bhayangkara Hospital for the period of 14 days after the earthquake. Demographic and clinical information was recorded. 153 children were admitted to the health center. Children younger than six years old were the highest proportion (78%). Out of 153 children, 82 of them were male (54%). The most frequently diagnosed disease during the first and second weeks after the earthquake was respiratory problems, followed by gastrointestinal problems that showed an increase in incidence in the second week. This study found that age has a correlation with common disease in children after an earthquake. Respiratory and gastrointestinal problems were found to be the most common diseases among the pediatric population in Mamuju after the earthquake.

Keywords: Health outcomes, pediatric population, earthquake, Mamuju.

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Authors: Yoshinori Matsuura, Saori Iwanaga

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The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred at 14:46 on Friday, March 11, 2011. It was the most powerful known earthquake to have hit Japan. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of up to 40.5 meters in height. We focus on the ship’s evacuation from tsunami. Then we analyze about ships evacuation from tsunami using multi-agent simulation and we want to prepare for a coming earthquake. We developed a simulation model of ships that set sail from the port in order to evacuate from the tsunami considering the ship carrying dangerous goods.

Keywords: Multi-agent simulation, Ship’s evacuation, Tsunami.

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

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From the past earthquake events, many people get hurt at the exit while they are trying to go out of the buildings because of the exit doors are unable to be opened. The door is not opened because it deviates from its the original position. The aim of this research is to develop and evaluate a new type safety door that keeps the door frame in its original position or keeps its edge angles perpendicular during and post-earthquake. The proposed door is composed of three components: outer frame joined to the wall, inner frame (door frame) and circular hollow section connected to the inner and outer frame which is used as seismic energy dissipating device.

Keywords: Earthquake disaster, FE analysis, Low yield point steel, Safety-doors.

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Authors: Chang Hsueh-Sheng, Chen Tzu-Ling

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Earthquake is an unpredictable natural disaster and intensive earthquakes have caused serious impacts on social-economic system, environmental and social resilience. Conventional ways to mitigate earthquake disaster are to enhance building codes and advance structural engineering measures. However, earthquake-induced ground damage such as liquefaction, land subsidence, landslide happen on places nearby earthquake prone or poor soil condition areas. Therefore, this study uses spatial statistical analysis to explore the spatial pattern of damaged buildings. Afterwards, principle components analysis (PCA) is applied to categorize the similar features in different kinds of clustered patterns. The results show that serious landslide prone area, close to fault, vegetated ground surface and mudslide prone area are common in those highly damaged buildings. In addition, the oldest building might not be directly referred to the most vulnerable one. In fact, it seems that buildings built between 1974 and 1989 become more fragile during the earthquake. The incorporation of both spatial statistical analyses and PCA can provide more accurate information to subsidize retrofit programs to enhance earthquake resistance in particular areas.

Keywords: Earthquake disaster, spatial statistical analysis, principle components analysis, clustered patterns.

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Authors: M. Parva, K. Dola, F. Pour Rahimian

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Earthquake is considered as one of the most catastrophic disasters in Iran, in terms of both short-term and long-term hazards. Due to the particular financial and time constraints in Iran, quickly constructed post-earthquake houses (PEHs) do not fulfill the minimum requirements to be considered as comfortable dwellings for people. Consequently, people often transform PEHs after they start to reside. However, lack of understanding about process, motivation, and results of housing transformation leads to construction of some houses not suitable for future transformations, hence resulting in eventually demolished or abandoned PEHs. This study investigated housing transformations in a natural bed of post-earthquake Lar. This paper reports results of the conducted survey for comparing normal condition housing transformation with post-earthquake housing transformation in order to reveal the factors that affect post-earthquake housing transformation in Iran. The findings proposed the use of a combination of ‘Temporary’ and ‘Permanent’ housing reconstruction models in Iran to provide victims with basic but permanent post-disaster dwellings. It is also suggested that needs for future transformation should be predicted and addressed during early stages of design and development. This study contributes to both research and practice regarding post-earthquake housing reconstruction in Iran by proposing new design approaches and guidelines.

Keywords: Housing transformation, Iran, Lar, post-earthquake housing.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

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One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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Authors: Douangmala Kousnana, Toru Takahashi

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In recent years, the number of natural disasters in the world has occurred frequently. After a strong earthquake occurs, multiple disasters due to tsunami, strong aftershocks or heavy snow can possible to occur. To prevent a secondary disaster and to save a life, the quick inspection of the damaged building is necessary. This paper investigated on a possibility of post earthquake quick inspection of damaged building by ordinary people which used the European Macro- Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98).

Keywords: Quick Assessment, EMS-98, Ordinary People, Post-Earthquake

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Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

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In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete.

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Authors: Ting Wang, Huiqin Yang, Buxin Han

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Background: This investigated the mental health of the elderly survivors six months, ten months and two years after the “5.12 Wenchuan" earthquake. Methods: Two hundred and thirty-two physically healthy older survivors from earthquake-affected Mianyang County were interviewed. The measures included the Revised Impact of Event Scale (IES-R, Chinese version, for PTSD) and a Chinese Mental Health Inventory for the Elderly (MHIE). A repeated measures ANOVA test was used for statistical analysis. Results: The follow-up group had a statistically significant lower IES-R score and lower MHIE score than the initial group ten months after the earthquake. Two years later, the score of IES-R in follow-up group were still lower than that of non-follow-up group, but no differences were significant on the score of MHIE between groups. Furthermore, a negative relationship was found between scores of IES-R and MHIE. Conclusion: The earthquake has had a persistent negative impact on older survivors- mental health within the two-year period and that although the PTSD level declined significantly with time, it did not disappear completely.

Keywords: Elderly survivors, follow-up, mental health, post-Wenchuan earthquake.

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Authors: A. Farshidianfar, P. Oliazadeh

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In this paper the vibration behaviors of a structure equipped with a tuned liquid column damper (TLCD) under a harmonic type of earthquake loading are studied. However, due to inherent nonlinear liquid damping, it is no doubt that a great deal of computational effort is required to search the optimum parameters of the TLCD, numerically. Therefore by linearization the equation of motion of the single degree of freedom structure equipped with the TLCD, the closed form solutions of the TLCD-structure system are derived. To find the reliability of the analytical method, the results have been compared with other researcher and have good agreement. Further, the effects of optimal design parameters such as length ratio and mass ratio on the performance of the TLCD for controlling the responses of a structure are investigated by using the harmonic type of earthquake excitation. Finally, the Citicorp Center which has a very flexible structure is used as an example to illustrate the design procedure for the TLCD under the earthquake excitation.

Keywords: Closed form solution, Earthquake excitation, TLCD.

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Authors: Carlos H. Cuadra

Abstract:

The present report describes the characteristics of damages and behavior of reinforced concrete buildings during the tsunami action. The discussion is based on the field damage survey in selected cities located on the coast of the zone affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. This earthquake is the most powerful know earthquake that has hit Japan with a magnitude 9.0 and with epicenter located at 129 km of Sendai city (off the coast). The earthquake triggered a destructive tsunami with run up height of up to 40 meters that mainly affect cities located on the Pacific Ocean coast of the Tohoku region (north-east region of Japan). Reinforced concrete buildings in general resist the tsunami without collapse however the non-structural elements like panels and ceilings were severely damaged. The analysis of damages has permitted to understand the behavior of RC buildings under tsunami attack, and has also permitted to establish recommendations for their use to take refuge from tsunami in places where natural topography makes impossible to reach hilltops or other safer places.

Keywords: tsunami, RC buildings, East Japan Earthquake, seismic damage

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Ting-Yu Hsu, Shyu-Yu Wu, Shieh-Kung Huang, Hung-Wei Chiang, Kung-Chun Lu, Pei-Yang Lin, Kuo-Liang Wen

Abstract:

Regional earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are not suitable for Taiwan, as most destructive seismic hazards arise due to in-land earthquakes. These likely cause the lead-time provided by regional EEW systems before a destructive earthquake wave arrives to become null. On the other hand, an on-site EEW system can provide more lead-time at a region closer to an epicenter, since only seismic information of the target site is required. Instead of leveraging the information of several stations, the on-site system extracts some P-wave features from the first few seconds of vertical ground acceleration of a single station and performs a prediction of the oncoming earthquake intensity at the same station according to these features. Since seismometers could be triggered by non-earthquake events such as a passing of a truck or other human activities, to reduce the likelihood of false alarms, a seismometer was installed at three different locations on the same site and the performance of the EEW system for these three sensor locations were discussed. The results show that the location on the ground of the first floor of a school building maybe a good choice, since the false alarms could be reduced and the cost for installation and maintenance is the lowest.

Keywords: Earthquake early warning, Single station approach, Seismometer location.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: M. Pasbani Khiavi, M. A. Ghorbani

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This paper presents an analytical solution to get a reliable estimation of the hydrodynamic pressure on gravity dams induced by vertical component earthquake when solving the fluid and dam interaction problem. Presented analytical technique is presented for calculation of earthquake-induced hydrodynamic pressure in the reservoir of gravity dams allowing for water compressibility and wave absorption at the reservoir bottom. This new analytical solution can take into account the effect of bottom material on seismic response of gravity dams. It is concluded that because the vertical component of ground motion causes significant hydrodynamic forces in the horizontal direction on a vertical upstream face, responses to the vertical component of ground motion are of special importance in analysis of concrete gravity dams subjected to earthquakes.

Keywords: Dam, Reservoir, Analytical solution, Vertical component, Earthquake

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