Search results for: prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1011

Search results for: prediction

351 Time Series Regression with Meta-Clusters

Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: Clustering, Data analysis, Data mining, Predictive models.

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350 Atomic Clusters: A Unique Building Motif for Future Smart Nanomaterials

Authors: Debesh R. Roy

Abstract:

The fundamental issue in understanding the origin and growth mechanism of nanomaterials, from a fundamental unit is a big challenging problem to the scientists. Recently, an immense attention is generated to the researchers for prediction of exceptionally stable atomic cluster units as the building units for future smart materials. The present study is a systematic investigation on the stability and electronic properties of a series of bimetallic (semiconductor-alkaline earth) clusters, viz., BxMg3 (x=1-5) is performed, in search for exceptional and/ or unusual stable motifs. A very popular hybrid exchange-correlation functional, B3LYP along with a higher basis set, viz., 6-31+G[d,p] is employed for this purpose under the density functional formalism. The magic stability among the concerned clusters is explained using the jellium model. It is evident from the present study that the magic stability of B4Mg3 cluster arises due to the jellium shell closure.

Keywords: Atomic Clusters, Density Functional Theory, Jellium Model, Magic Clusters, Smart Nanomaterials.

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349 Unsteady 3D Post-Stall Aerodynamics Accounting for Effective Loss in Camber Due to Flow Separation

Authors: Aritras Roy, Rinku Mukherjee

Abstract:

The current study couples a quasi-steady Vortex Lattice Method and a camber correcting technique, ‘Decambering’ for unsteady post-stall flow prediction. The wake is force-free and discrete such that the wake lattices move with the free-stream once shed from the wing. It is observed that the time-averaged unsteady coefficient of lift sees a relative drop at post-stall angles of attack in comparison to its steady counterpart for some angles of attack. Multiple solutions occur at post-stall and three different algorithms to choose solutions in these regimes show both unsteadiness and non-convergence of the iterations. The distribution of coefficient of lift on the wing span also shows sawtooth. Distribution of vorticity changes both along span and in the direction of the free-stream as the wake develops over time with distinct roll-up, which increases with time.

Keywords: Post-stall, unsteady, wing, aerodynamics.

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348 Methods for Distinction of Cattle Using Supervised Learning

Authors: Radoslav Židek, Veronika Šidlová, Radovan Kasarda, Birgit Fuerst-Waltl

Abstract:

Machine learning represents a set of topics dealing with the creation and evaluation of algorithms that facilitate pattern recognition, classification, and prediction, based on models derived from existing data. The data can present identification patterns which are used to classify into groups. The result of the analysis is the pattern which can be used for identification of data set without the need to obtain input data used for creation of this pattern. An important requirement in this process is careful data preparation validation of model used and its suitable interpretation. For breeders, it is important to know the origin of animals from the point of the genetic diversity. In case of missing pedigree information, other methods can be used for traceability of animal´s origin. Genetic diversity written in genetic data is holding relatively useful information to identify animals originated from individual countries. We can conclude that the application of data mining for molecular genetic data using supervised learning is an appropriate tool for hypothesis testing and identifying an individual.

Keywords: Genetic data, Pinzgau cattle, supervised learning.

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347 Examining the Effects of Production Method on Aluminium A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp Composite for Hydro Turbine Bucket Application

Authors: Williams S. Ebhota, Freddie L. Inambao

Abstract:

This study investigates the use of centrifugal casting method to fabricate functionally graded aluminium A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite for hydro turbine bucket application. The study includes the design and fabrication of a permanent mould. The mould was put into use and the buckets of A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite were cast, cut and machined into specimens. Some specimens were given T6 heat treatment and the specimens were prepared for different examinations accordingly. The SiCp particles were found to be more at inner periphery of the bucket. The maximum hardness of As-Cast A356 and A356-10%SiCp composite was recorded at the inner periphery to be 60 BRN and 95BRN, respectively. And these values were appreciated to 98BRN and 122BRN for A356 alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite, respectively. It was observed that the ultimate tensile stress and yield tensile stress prediction curves show the same trend.

Keywords: A356 alloy, A356-10%SiCp composite, centrifugal casting, pelton bucket, turbine blade.

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346 Phytoadaptation in Desert Soil Prediction Using Fuzzy Logic Modeling

Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

Abstract:

In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: Climate changes, dry soil, Phytopathogenicity, Predictive model, Fuzzy logic.

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345 Ground Heat Exchanger Modeling Developed for Energy Flows of an Incompressible Fluid

Authors: Paul Christodoulides, Georgios Florides, Panayiotis Pouloupatis, Vassilios Messaritis, Lazaros Lazari

Abstract:

Ground-source heat pumps achieve higher efficiencies than conventional air-source heat pumps because they exchange heat with the ground that is cooler in summer and hotter in winter than the air environment. Earth heat exchangers are essential parts of the ground-source heat pumps and the accurate prediction of their performance is of fundamental importance. This paper presents the development and validation of a numerical model through an incompressible fluid flow, for the simulation of energy and temperature changes in and around a U-tube borehole heat exchanger. The FlexPDE software is used to solve the resulting simultaneous equations that model the heat exchanger. The validated model (through a comparison with experimental data) is then used to extract conclusions on how various parameters like the U-tube diameter, the variation of the ground thermal conductivity and specific heat and the borehole filling material affect the temperature of the fluid.

Keywords: U-tube borehole, energy flow, incompressible fluid, numerical model

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344 An Intelligent Human-Computer Interaction System for Decision Support

Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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343 Relations of Progression in Cognitive Decline with Initial EEG Resting-State Functional Network in Mild Cognitive Impairment

Authors: Chia-Feng Lu, Yuh-Jen Wang, Yu-Te Wu, Sui-Hing Yan

Abstract:

This study aimed at investigating whether the functional brain networks constructed using the initial EEG (obtained when patients first visited hospital) can be correlated with the progression of cognitive decline calculated as the changes of mini-mental state examination (MMSE) scores between the latest and initial examinations. We integrated the time–frequency cross mutual information (TFCMI) method to estimate the EEG functional connectivity between cortical regions, and the network analysis based on graph theory to investigate the organization of functional networks in aMCI. Our finding suggested that higher integrated functional network with sufficient connection strengths, dense connection between local regions, and high network efficiency in processing information at the initial stage may result in a better prognosis of the subsequent cognitive functions for aMCI. In conclusion, the functional connectivity can be a useful biomarker to assist in prediction of cognitive declines in aMCI.

Keywords: Cognitive decline, functional connectivity, MCI, MMSE.

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342 Formalizing a Procedure for Generating Uncertain Resource Availability Assumptions Based On Real Time Logistic Data Capturing with Auto-ID Systems for Reactive Scheduling

Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

Abstract:

As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focusses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: Auto-ID, Construction Logistic, Fuzzy, Monitoring, RFID, Scheduling.

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341 Dynamic Process Monitoring of an Ammonia Synthesis Fixed-Bed Reactor

Authors: Bothinah Altaf, Gary Montague, Elaine B. Martin

Abstract:

This study involves the modeling and monitoring of an ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor using partial least squares (PLS) and its variants. The process exhibits complex dynamic behavior due to the presence of heat recycling and feed quench. One limitation of static PLS model in this situation is that it does not take account of the process dynamics and hence dynamic PLS was used. Although it showed, superior performance to static PLS in terms of prediction, the monitoring scheme was inappropriate hence adaptive PLS was considered. A limitation of adaptive PLS is that non-conforming observations also contribute to the model, therefore, a new adaptive approach was developed, robust adaptive dynamic PLS. This approach updates a dynamic PLS model and is robust to non-representative data. The developed methodology showed a clear improvement over existing approaches in terms of the modeling of the reactor and the detection of faults.

Keywords: Ammonia synthesis fixed-bed reactor, dynamic partial least squares modeling, recursive partial least squares, robust modeling.

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340 A Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model for Multi-Variate Forecasting Analysis with Fuzzy C-Means Clustering

Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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339 Using Stresses Obtained from a Low Detailed FE Model and Located at a Reference Point to Quickly Calculate the Free-edge Stress Intensity Factors of Bonded Joints

Authors: F. Maamar, M. Sartor

Abstract:

The present study focuses on methods allowing a convenient and quick calculation of the SIFs in order to predict the static adhesive strength of bonded joints. A new SIF calculation method is proposed, based on the stresses obtained from a FE model at a reference point located in the adhesive layer at equal distance of the free-edge and of the two interfaces. It is shown that, even limiting ourselves to the two main modes, i.e. the opening and the shearing modes, and using the values of the stresses resulting from a low detailed FE model, an efficient calculation of the peeling stress at adhesive-substrate corners can be obtained by this way. The proposed method is interesting in that it can be the basis of a prediction tool that will allow the designer to quickly evaluate the SIFs characterizing a particular application without developing a detailed analysis.

Keywords: Adhesive layer, bounded joints, free-edge corner, stress intensity factor.

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338 An Application-Based Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) Calculator for Residential Buildings

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Chin T. Cheung, Ho C. Yu

Abstract:

Based on an indoor environmental quality (IEQ) index established by previous work that indicates the overall IEQ acceptance from the prospect of an occupant in residential buildings in terms of four IEQ factors - thermal comfort, indoor air quality, visual and aural comforts, this study develops a user-friendly IEQ calculator for iOS and Android users to calculate the occupant acceptance and compare the relative performance of IEQ in apartments. “IEQ calculator” is easy to use and it preliminarily illustrates the overall indoor environmental quality on the spot. Users simply input indoor parameters such as temperature, number of people and windows are opened or closed for the mobile application to calculate the scores in four areas: the comforts of temperature, brightness, noise and indoor air quality. The calculator allows the prediction of the best IEQ scenario on a quantitative scale. Any indoor environments under the specific IEQ conditions can be benchmarked against the predicted IEQ acceptance range. This calculator can also suggest how to achieve the best IEQ acceptance among a group of residents. 

Keywords: Calculator, indoor environmental quality (IEQ), residential buildings, 5-star benchmarks.

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337 Application of Neural Networks to Predict Changing the Diameters of Bubbles in Pool Boiling Distilled Water

Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian, D. Ashouri

Abstract:

In this research, the capability of neural networks in  modeling and learning complicated and nonlinear relations has been  used to develop a model for the prediction of changes in the diameter  of bubbles in pool boiling distilled water. The input parameters used  in the development of this network include element temperature, heat  flux, and retention time of bubbles. The test data obtained from the  experiment of the pool boiling of distilled water, and the  measurement of the bubbles form on the cylindrical element. The  model was developed based on training algorithm, which is  typologically of back-propagation type. Considering the correlation  coefficient obtained from this model is 0.9633. This shows that this  model can be trusted for the simulation and modeling of the size of  bubble and thermal transfer of boiling.

Keywords: Bubble Diameter, Heat Flux, Neural Network, Training Algorithm.

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336 Face Image Coding Using Face Prototyping

Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Lenka Krulikovská, Natália Helešová, Tomáš Hirner

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for face image coding. The proposed method makes a use of the features of video encoders like motion prediction. At first encoder selects appropriate prototype from the database and warps it according to features of encoding face. Warped prototype is placed as first I frame. Encoding face is placed as second frame as P frame type. Information about features positions, color change, selected prototype and data flow of P frame will be sent to decoder. The condition is both encoder and decoder own the same database of prototypes. We have run experiment with H.264 video encoder and obtained results were compared to results achieved by JPEG and JPEG2000. Obtained results show that our approach is able to achieve 3 times lower bitrate and two times higher PSNR in comparison with JPEG. According to comparison with JPEG2000 the bitrate was very similar, but subjective quality achieved by proposed method is better.

Keywords: Triangulation, H.264, Model-based coding, Average face

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335 Location Management in Cellular Networks

Authors: Bhavneet Sidhu, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

Cellular networks provide voice and data services to the users with mobility. To deliver services to the mobile users, the cellular network is capable of tracking the locations of the users, and allowing user movement during the conversations. These capabilities are achieved by the location management. Location management in mobile communication systems is concerned with those network functions necessary to allow the users to be reached wherever they are in the network coverage area. In a cellular network, a service coverage area is divided into smaller areas of hexagonal shape, referred to as cells. The cellular concept was introduced to reuse the radio frequency. Continued expansion of cellular networks, coupled with an increasingly restricted mobile spectrum, has established the reduction of communication overhead as a highly important issue. Much of this traffic is used in determining the precise location of individual users when relaying calls, with the field of location management aiming to reduce this overhead through prediction of user location. This paper describes and compares various location management schemes in the cellular networks.

Keywords: Cellular Networks, Location Area, MobilityManagement, Paging.

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334 A Large Dataset Imputation Approach Applied to Country Conflict Prediction Data

Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Abstract:

This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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333 A Genetic Algorithm Based Classification Approach for Finding Fault Prone Classes

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Satish Kumar Dhiman, Anmol Goyal

Abstract:

Fault-proneness of a software module is the probability that the module contains faults. A correlation exists between the fault-proneness of the software and the measurable attributes of the code (i.e. the static metrics) and of the testing (i.e. the dynamic metrics). Early detection of fault-prone software components enables verification experts to concentrate their time and resources on the problem areas of the software system under development. This paper introduces Genetic Algorithm based software fault prediction models with Object-Oriented metrics. The contribution of this paper is that it has used Metric values of JEdit open source software for generation of the rules for the classification of software modules in the categories of Faulty and non faulty modules and thereafter empirically validation is performed. The results shows that Genetic algorithm approach can be used for finding the fault proneness in object oriented software components.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Software Fault, Classification, Object Oriented Metrics.

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332 Mobile Robot Path Planning Utilizing Probability Recursive Function

Authors: Ethar H. Khalil, Bahaa I. Kazem

Abstract:

In this work a software simulation model has been proposed for two driven wheels mobile robot path planning; that can navigate in dynamic environment with static distributed obstacles. The work involves utilizing Bezier curve method in a proposed N order matrix form; for engineering the mobile robot path. The Bezier curve drawbacks in this field have been diagnosed. Two directions: Up and Right function has been proposed; Probability Recursive Function (PRF) to overcome those drawbacks. PRF functionality has been developed through a proposed; obstacle detection function, optimization function which has the capability of prediction the optimum path without comparison between all feasible paths, and N order Bezier curve function that ensures the drawing of the obtained path. The simulation results that have been taken showed; the mobile robot travels successfully from starting point and reaching its goal point. All obstacles that are located in its way have been avoided. This navigation is being done successfully using the proposed PRF techniques.

Keywords: Mobile robot, path planning, Bezier curve.

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331 Artificial Neural Network Model for a Low Cost Failure Sensor: Performance Assessment in Pipeline Distribution

Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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330 Numerical Simulation of Investment Casting of Gold Jewelry: Experiments and Validations

Authors: Marco Actis Grande, Somlak Wannarumon

Abstract:

This paper proposes the numerical simulation of the investment casting of gold jewelry. It aims to study the behavior of fluid flow during mould filling and solidification and to optimize the process parameters, which lead to predict and control casting defects such as gas porosity and shrinkage porosity. A finite difference method, computer simulation software FLOW-3D was used to simulate the jewelry casting process. The simplified model was designed for both numerical simulation and real casting production. A set of sensor acquisitions were allocated on the different positions of the wax tree of the model to detect filling times, while a set of thermocouples were allocated to detect the temperature during casting and cooling. Those detected data were applied to validate the results of the numerical simulation to the results of the real casting. The resulting comparisons signify that the numerical simulation can be used as an effective tool in investment-casting-process optimization and casting-defect prediction.

Keywords: Computer fluid dynamic, Investment casting, Jewelry, Mould filling, Simulation.

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329 Numerical Simulation for the Formability Prediction of the Laser Welded Blanks (TWB)

Authors: Hossein Mamusi, Abolfazl Masoumi, Ramezanali Mahdavinezhad

Abstract:

Tailor-welded Blanks (TWBs) are tailor made for different complex component designs by welding multiple metal sheets with different thicknesses, shapes, coatings or strengths prior to forming. In this study the Hemispherical Die Stretching (HDS) test (out-of-plane stretching) of TWBs were simulated via ABAQUS/Explicit to obtain the Forming Limit Diagrams (FLDs) of Stainless steel (AISI 304) laser welded blanks with different thicknesses. Two criteria were used to detect the start of necking to determine the FLD for TWBs and parent sheet metals. These two criteria are the second derivatives of the major and thickness strains that are given from the strain history of simulation. In the other word, in these criteria necking starts when the second derivative of thickness or major strain reaches its maximum. With having the time of onset necking, one can measure the major and minor strains at the critical area and determine the forming limit curve.

Keywords: TWB, Forming Limit Diagram, Necking criteria, ABAQUS/Explicit

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328 Local Linear Model Tree (LOLIMOT) Reconfigurable Parallel Hardware

Authors: A. Pedram, M. R. Jamali, T. Pedram, S. M. Fakhraie, C. Lucas

Abstract:

Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Models (LLNFM) like other neuro- fuzzy systems are adaptive networks and provide robust learning capabilities and are widely utilized in various applications such as pattern recognition, system identification, image processing and prediction. Local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) is a type of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang neuro fuzzy algorithm which has proven its efficiency compared with other neuro fuzzy networks in learning the nonlinear systems and pattern recognition. In this paper, a dedicated reconfigurable and parallel processing hardware for LOLIMOT algorithm and its applications are presented. This hardware realizes on-chip learning which gives it the capability to work as a standalone device in a system. The synthesis results on FPGA platforms show its potential to improve the speed at least 250 of times faster than software implemented algorithms.

Keywords: LOLIMOT, hardware, neurofuzzy systems, reconfigurable, parallel.

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327 FCNN-MR: A Parallel Instance Selection Method Based on Fast Condensed Nearest Neighbor Rule

Authors: Lu Si, Jie Yu, Shasha Li, Jun Ma, Lei Luo, Qingbo Wu, Yongqi Ma, Zhengji Liu

Abstract:

Instance selection (IS) technique is used to reduce the data size to improve the performance of data mining methods. Recently, to process very large data set, several proposed methods divide the training set into some disjoint subsets and apply IS algorithms independently to each subset. In this paper, we analyze the limitation of these methods and give our viewpoint about how to divide and conquer in IS procedure. Then, based on fast condensed nearest neighbor (FCNN) rule, we propose a large data sets instance selection method with MapReduce framework. Besides ensuring the prediction accuracy and reduction rate, it has two desirable properties: First, it reduces the work load in the aggregation node; Second and most important, it produces the same result with the sequential version, which other parallel methods cannot achieve. We evaluate the performance of FCNN-MR on one small data set and two large data sets. The experimental results show that it is effective and practical.

Keywords: Instance selection, data reduction, MapReduce, kNN.

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326 3D Numerical Studies on External Aerodynamics of a Flying Car

Authors: Sasitharan Ambicapathy, J. Vignesh, P. Sivaraj, Godfrey Derek Sams, K. Sabarinath, V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

The external flow simulation of a flying car at take off phase is a daunting task owing to the fact that the prediction of the transient unsteady flow features during its deployment phase is very complex. In this paper 3D numerical simulations of external flow of Ferrari F430 proposed flying car with different NACA 9618 rectangular wings have been carried. Additionally, the aerodynamics characteristics have been generated for optimizing its geometry for achieving the minimum take off velocity with better overall performance in both road and air. The three-dimensional standard k-omega turbulence model has been used for capturing the intrinsic flow physics during the take off phase. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations is employed. Through the detailed parametric analytical studies we have conjectured that Ferrari F430 flying car facilitated with high wings having three different deployment histories during the take off phase is the best choice for accomplishing its better performance for the commercial applications.

Keywords: Aerodynamics of flying car, air taxi, negative lift. roadable airplane.

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325 Non-Homogeneous Layered Fiber Reinforced Concrete

Authors: Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

Abstract:

Fiber reinforced concrete is important material for load bearing structural elements. Usually fibers are homogeneously distributed in a concrete body having arbitrary spatial orientations. At the same time, in many situations, fiber concrete with oriented fibers is more optimal. Is obvious, that is possible to create constructions with oriented short fibers in them, in different ways. Present research is devoted to one of such approaches- fiber reinforced concrete prisms having dimensions 100mm ×100mm ×400mmwith layers of non-homogeneously distributed fibers inside them were fabricated.

Simultaneously prisms with homogeneously dispersed fibers were produced for reference as well. Prisms were tested under four point bending conditions. During the tests vertical deflection at the center of every prism and crack opening were measured (using linear displacements transducers in real timescale). Prediction results were discussed.

Keywords: Fiber reinforced concrete, 4-point bending, steel fiber.

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324 Determination of Water Pollution and Water Quality with Decision Trees

Authors: Çiğdem Bakır, Mecit Yüzkat

Abstract:

With the increasing emphasis on water quality worldwide, the search for and expanding the market for new and intelligent monitoring systems has increased. The current method is the laboratory process, where samples are taken from bodies of water, and tests are carried out in laboratories. This method is time-consuming, a waste of manpower and uneconomical. To solve this problem, we used machine learning methods to detect water pollution in our study. We created decision trees with the Orange3 software used in the study and tried to determine all the factors that cause water pollution. An automatic prediction model based on water quality was developed by taking many model inputs such as water temperature, pH, transparency, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, and ammonia nitrogen with machine learning methods. The proposed approach consists of three stages: Preprocessing of the data used, feature detection and classification. We tried to determine the success of our study with different accuracy metrics and the results were presented comparatively. In addition, we achieved approximately 98% success with the decision tree.

Keywords: Decision tree, water quality, water pollution, machine learning.

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323 A Subtractive Clustering Based Approach for Early Prediction of Fault Proneness in Software Modules

Authors: Ramandeep S. Sidhu, Sunil Khullar, Parvinder S. Sandhu, R. P. S. Bedi, Kiranbir Kaur

Abstract:

In this paper, subtractive clustering based fuzzy inference system approach is used for early detection of faults in the function oriented software systems. This approach has been tested with real time defect datasets of NASA software projects named as PC1 and CM1. Both the code based model and joined model (combination of the requirement and code based metrics) of the datasets are used for training and testing of the proposed approach. The performance of the models is recorded in terms of Accuracy, MAE and RMSE values. The performance of the proposed approach is better in case of Joined Model. As evidenced from the results obtained it can be concluded that Clustering and fuzzy logic together provide a simple yet powerful means to model the earlier detection of faults in the function oriented software systems.

Keywords: Subtractive clustering, fuzzy inference system, fault proneness.

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322 Prediction of the Thermal Parameters of a High-Temperature Metallurgical Reactor Using Inverse Heat Transfer

Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

Abstract:

This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.

Keywords: Inverse heat transfer, phase change, metallurgical reactor, Levenberg–Marquardt method, Broyden method, bank thickness.

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