Search results for: decision variable

Authors: Kamila Janovská, Šárka Vilamová, Petr Besta, Iveta Vozňáková, Roman Kozel

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Quantitative methods of economic decision-making as the methodological base of the so called operational research represent an important set of tools for managing complex economic systems,both at the microeconomic level and on the macroeconomic scale. Mathematical models of controlled and controlling processes allow, by means of artificial experiments, obtaining information foroptimalor optimum approaching managerial decision-making.The quantitative methods of economic decision-making usually include a methodology known as structural analysis -an analysisof interdisciplinary production-consumption relations.

Keywords: economic decision-making, mathematical methods, structuralanalysis, technical coefficient

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Authors: L. Tao, T. J. Sun, Z. H. Li

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The knowledge base of welding defect recognition is essentially incomplete. This characteristic determines that the recognition results do not reflect the actual situation. It also has a further influence on the classification of welding quality. This paper is concerned with the study of a rough set based method to reduce the influence and improve the classification accuracy. At first, a rough set model of welding quality intelligent classification has been built. Both condition and decision attributes have been specified. Later on, groups of the representative multiple compound defects have been chosen from the defect library and then classified correctly to form the decision table. Finally, the redundant information of the decision table has been reducted and the optimal decision rules have been reached. By this method, we are able to reclassify the misclassified defects to the right quality level. Compared with the ordinary ones, this method has higher accuracy and better robustness.

Keywords: intelligent decision, rough set, welding defects, welding quality level

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe

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The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.

Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.

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Authors: Haniye Dehestani, Yadollah Ordokhani

Abstract:

In this work, we present an efficient approach for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations, which are based on Legendre and Laguerre polynomials. First, we introduced the pseudo-operational matrices of integer and variable fractional order of integration by use of some properties of Riemann-Liouville fractional integral. Then, applied together with collocation method and Legendre-Laguerre functions for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations. Also, an estimation of the error is presented. At last, we investigate numerical examples which arise in physics to demonstrate the accuracy of the present method. In comparison results obtained by the present method with the exact solution and the other methods reveals that the method is very effective.

Keywords: Collocation method, fractional partial differential equations, Legendre-Laguerre functions, pseudo-operational matrix of integration.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique for selecting fighter aircraft for the national air force. The selection of military aircraft is a process consisting of contradictory goals and objectives. When a modern air force needs to choose fighter aircraft to upgrade existing fleets, a multiple criteria decision making analysis and scenario planning for defense acquisition has been put forward. The selection of fighter aircraft for the air defense force is a strategic decision making process, since the purchase or lease of fighter jets, maintenance and operating costs and having a fleet is the biggest cost for the air force. Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods are effectively applied to facilitate decision making from various available options. The selection criteria were determined using the literature on the problem of fighter aircraft selection. The selection of fighter aircraft to be purchased for the air defense forces is handled using a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique that also determines a suitable methodological approach for the defense procurement and fleet upgrade planning process. The aim of this study is to originate an approach to evaluate fighter aircraft alternatives, Su-35, F-35, and TF-X (MMU), based on technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).

Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Su-35, F-35, TF-X (MMU)

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Authors: Cheng-Che Tsai, Huang-Ming Chuang

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of cognitive decision effort in recommendation system, combined with indicators "information quality" and "service quality" from IS success model to exam the awareness of the user for the "recommended system performance". A total of 411 internet user answered a questionnaire assessing their attention of use and satisfaction of recommendation system in internet book store. Quantitative result indicates following research results. First, information quality of recommended system has obvious influence in consumer shopping decision-making process, and the attitude to use the system. Second, in the process of consumer's shopping decision-making, the recommendation system has no significant influence for consumers to pay lower cognitive decision-making effort. Third, e-commerce platform provides recommendations and information is necessary, but the quality of information on user needs must be considered, or they will be other competitors offer homogeneous services replaced.

Keywords: Recommender system, Cognitive decision-making efforts, IS success model, Internet bookstore.

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Authors: Pil Woo Heo

Abstract:

Water contains dissolved oxygen that a fish needs to breathe. It is important to increase the amounts of separation of dissolved oxygen from water for diverse applications using the separation system. In this paper, a separation system of dissolved gases from water concurrently variable mixed with the exhalations using a compressor is proposed. This system takes use of exhalations to increase the amounts of separation of dissolved oxygen from water. A compressor with variable off-time and on-time is used to control the exhalations mixed with inlet water. Exhalations contain some portion of carbon dioxide, oxygen, and nitrogen. Separation of dissolved gases containing dissolved oxygen is enhanced by using exhalations. The amounts of separation and the compositions of carbon dioxide and oxygen are measured. Higher amounts of separation can make the size of the separation device smaller, and then, application areas are diversified.

Keywords: Concurrently, variable mixed, exhalations, separation, hollow fiber.

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Authors: Pankaj, Sonia R. Bansal

Abstract:

Creep stresses and strain rates have been obtained for a thin rotating disc having variable density with inclusion by using Seth-s transition theory. The density of the disc is assumed to vary radially, i.e. ( ) 0 ¤ü ¤ü r/b m - = ; ¤ü 0 and m being real positive constants. It has been observed that a disc, whose density increases radially, rotates at higher angular speed, thus decreasing the possibility of a fracture at the bore, whereas for a disc whose density decreases radially, the possibility of a fracture at the bore increases.

Keywords: Elastic-Plastic, Inclusion, Rotating disc, Stress, Strain rates, Transition, variable density.

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Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright

Abstract:

We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Madzlan Napiah, Mohd. Faris Khamidi

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This paper presents a conceptual model of agreement options for negotiation support in multi-person decision on optimizing high-rise building columns. The decision is complicated since many parties involved in choosing a single alternative from a set of solutions. There are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. Such building columns as alternatives are referred to as agreement options which are determined by identifying the possible decision maker group, followed by determining the optimal solution for each group. The group in this paper is based on three-decision makers preferences that are designer, programmer, and construction manager. Decision techniques applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied for decision process and game theory based agent system for coalition formation. An n-person cooperative game is represented by the set of all players. The proposed coalition formation model enables each agent to select individually its allies or coalition. It further emphasizes the importance of performance evaluation in the design process and value-based decision.

Keywords: Agreement options, coalition, group choice, game theory, building columns selection.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: Qingjiang Li, Hui Xu, Haijun Liu, Xiaobo Tian

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To judge whether the memristor can be interpreted as the fourth fundamental circuit element, we propose a variable-relation criterion of fundamental circuit elements. According to the criterion, we investigate the nature of three fundamental circuit elements and the memristor. From the perspective of variables relation, the memristor builds a direct relation between the voltage across it and the current through it, instead of a direct relation between the magnetic flux and the charge. Thus, it is better to characterize the memristor and the resistor as two special cases of the same fundamental circuit element, which is the memristive system in Chua-s new framework. Finally, the definition of memristor is refined according to the difference between the magnetic flux and the flux linkage.

Keywords: Memristor, Fundamental, Variable-Relation Criterion, Memristive system

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Authors: Kirill Trapezon, Alexandr Trapezon

Abstract:

A problem is formulated for the natural oscillations of a circular plate of linearly variable thickness on the basis of the symmetry method. The equations of natural frequencies and forms for a plate are obtained, providing that it is rigidly fixed along the inner contour. The first three eigenfrequencies are calculated, and the eigenmodes of the oscillations of the acoustic element are constructed. An algorithm for applying the symmetry method and the factorization method for solving problems in the theory of oscillations for plates of variable thickness is shown. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on the basis of comparison of known results and those obtained in the article. It is shown that the results are more accurate and reliable.

Keywords: Vibrations, plate, thickness, symmetry, factorization, approximation.

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

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Nowadays, the plant location selection has a critical impact on the performance of numerous companies. In this paper, a methodology is presented to solve this problem. The three decision making methods, namely Delphi, AHP and improved VIKOR, are hybridized in order to make the best use of information available based on the decision makers or experts. In this respect, the aim of using Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few decision makers. The AHP is utilized to give weights of the selected criteria. Finally, the improved VIKOR method is applied to rank alternatives. At the end of paper, an application example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Decision making, Plant location selection, Delphi, AHP, Improved VIKOR.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: Tao Dai, Andy Adler, Behnam Shahrrava

Abstract:

This paper presents a forgetting factor scheme for variable step-size affine projection algorithms (APA). The proposed scheme uses a forgetting processed input matrix as the projection matrix of pseudo-inverse to estimate system deviation. This method introduces temporal weights into the projection matrix, which is typically a better model of the real error's behavior than homogeneous temporal weights. The regularization overcomes the ill-conditioning introduced by both the forgetting process and the increasing size of the input matrix. This algorithm is tested by independent trials with coloured input signals and various parameter combinations. Results show that the proposed algorithm is superior in terms of convergence rate and misadjustment compared to existing algorithms. As a special case, a variable step size NLMS with forgetting factor is also presented in this paper.

Keywords: Adaptive signal processing, affine projection algorithms, variable step-size adaptive algorithms, regularization.

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Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor, Waseem Ahmed Khan, Aurangzaib

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The exact solutions of the equations describing the steady plane motion of an incompressible fluid of variable viscosity for an arbitrary state equation are determined in the (ξ,ψ) − or (η,ψ )- coordinates where ψ(x,y) is the stream function, ξ and η are the parts of the analytic function, ϖ =ξ( x,y )+iη( x,y ). Most of the solutions involve arbitrary function/ functions indicating  that the flow equations possess an infinite set of solutions. 

Keywords: Exact solutions, Fluid of variable viscosity, Navier-Stokes equations, Steady plane flows

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Authors: Amit Goyal, Alka, Rama Gupta, C. Nagaraja Kumar

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We have solved the Burgers-Fisher (BF) type equations, with time-dependent coefficients of convection and reaction terms, by using the auxiliary equation method. A class of solitary wave solutions are obtained, and some of which are derived for the first time. We have studied the effect of variable coefficients on physical parameters (amplitude and velocity) of solitary wave solutions. In some cases, the BF equations could be solved for arbitrary timedependent coefficient of convection term.

Keywords: Solitary wave solution, Variable coefficient Burgers- Fisher equation, Auxiliary equation method.

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Authors: Alfonso Bastías, Álvaro González

Abstract:

The actual grow of the infrastructure in develop country require sophisticate ways manage the operation and control the quality served. This research wants to concentrate in the operation of this infrastructure beyond the construction. The infrastructure-s operation involves an uncertain environment, where unexpected variables are present every day and everywhere. Decision makers need to make right decisions with right information/data analyzed most in real time. To adequately support their decisions and decrease any negative impact and collateral effect, they need to use computational tools called decision support systems (DSS), but now the main source of information came from common users thought an extensive crowdsourcing

Keywords: Crowdsourcing, Learning Systems, Decision Support Systems, Infrastructure, Construction.

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Authors: Nur Syibrah Muhamad Naim, Mohd Lazim Abdullah, Che Mohd Imran Che Taib, Abu OsmanMd. Tap

Abstract:

Decision making preferences to certain criteria usually focus on positive degrees without considering the negative degrees. However, in real life situation, evaluation becomes more comprehensive if negative degrees are considered concurrently. Preference is expected to be more effective when considering both positive and negative degrees of preference to evaluate the best selection. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose the conflicting bifuzzy preference relations in group decision making by utilization of a novel score function. The conflicting bifuzzy preference relation is obtained by introducing some modifications on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Releasing the intuitionistic condition by taking into account positive and negative degrees simultaneously and utilizing the novel score function are the main modifications to establish the proposed preference model. The proposed model is tested with a numerical example and proved to be simple and practical. The four-step decision model shows the efficiency of obtaining preference in group decision making.

Keywords: Fuzzy preference relations, score function, conflicting bifuzzy, decision making.

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Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani

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In modeling phenomena, the presence of local conditions may cause the use of a general relation not to produce good results and thus fail to demonstrate local changes. If possible, identifying homogenous limits and providing simple linear relations for each of these limits will increase the accuracy of models. Accordingly, the models are divided into simpler and smaller problems to solve complicated problems, and the obtained answers will be combined. This simple idea can be applied to decision tree models. For this aim, the input data values are divided into several sub-intervals or sub-regions, and an appropriate model is extracted for an appropriate model or equation. This research proposes the M5 decision tree method as a solution to accurately compute the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.

Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, decision tree, M5 decision tree model, meandering compound channels.

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Authors: Lien-Fa Lin, Yung-Ming Li, Fu-Shun Hsieh

Abstract:

With the advancement of information technology and development of group commerce, people have obviously changed in their lifestyle. However, group commerce faces some challenging problems. The products or services provided by vendors do not satisfactorily reflect customers’ opinions, so that the sale and revenue of group commerce gradually become lower. On the other hand, the process for a formed customer group to reach group-purchasing consensus is time-consuming and the final decision is not the best choice for each group members. In this paper, we design a social decision support mechanism, by using group discussion message to recommend suitable options for group members and we consider social influence and personal preference to generate option ranking list. The proposed mechanism can enhance the group purchasing decision making efficiently and effectively and venders can provide group products or services according to the group option ranking list.

Keywords: Social network, group decision, text mining, group commerce.

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Authors: Nalinee Sophatsathit

Abstract:

This research focuses on the use of a recommender system in decision support by means of a used car dealer case study in Bangkok Metropolitan. The goal is to develop an effective used car purchasing system for dealers based on the above premise. The underlying principle rests on content-based recommendation from a set of usability surveys. A prototype was developed to conduct buyers- survey selected from 5 experts and 95 general public. The responses were analyzed to determine the mean and standard deviation of buyers- preference. The results revealed that both groups were in favor of using the proposed system to assist their buying decision. This indicates that the proposed system is meritorious to used car dealers.

Keywords: Recommender Systems, Decision Support, Content- Based Recommendation, used car dealer.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

The machinability of workpieces (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron) in turning operation has been carried out using different types of cutting tool (conventional, cutting tool with holes in toolholder and cutting tool filled up with composite material) under dry conditions on a turning machine at different stages of spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). Experimentation was performed as per Taguchi’s orthogonal array. To evaluate the relative importance of factors affecting surface roughness the single decision tree (SDT), Decision tree forest (DTF) and Group method of data handling (GMDH) were applied.

Keywords: Decision Tree Forest, GMDH, surface roughness, taguchi method, turning process.

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Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh, Sumitter Bir Singh

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The emergence of information technology has resulted in an ever-increasing demand to use computers for the efficient management and dissemination of information. Keeping in view the strong need of farmers to collect important and updated information for interactive, flexible and quick decision-making, a model of Decision Support System for Farm Management is developed. The paper discusses the use of Internet technology for the farmers to take decisions. A model is developed for the farmers to access online interactive and flexible information for their farm management. The workflow of the model is presented highlighting the information transfer between different modules.

Keywords: Decision Support System, dissemination.

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Authors: Radomir Perzina, Jaroslav Ramik

Abstract:

The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel. Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method, Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method. Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples of real life decision problems.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision making, pair-wise comparisons, Microsoft Excel, Scenarios.

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Authors: S. Sabbour, H. Lasi, P. von Tessin

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The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, it attempts to explore potential opportunities for utilizing visual interactive simulations along with Business Intelligence (BI) as a decision support tool for strategic decision making. Second, it tries to figure out the essential top-level managerial requirements that would transform strategic decision simulation into an integral component of BI systems. The domain of particular interest was the application of visual interactive simulation capabilities in the field of supply chains. A qualitative exploratory method was applied, through the use of interviews with two leading companies. The collected data was then analysed to demonstrate the difference between the literature perspective and the practical managerial perspective on the issue. The results of the study suggest that although the use of simulation particularly in managing supply chains is very evident in literature, yet, in practice such utilization is still in its infancy, particularly regarding strategic decisions. Based on the insights a prototype of a simulation based BI-solution-extension was developed and evaluated.

Keywords: Business Intelligence, decision support, strategic decisions, simulation, SCM.

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