Search results for: Short-Term Load Forecasting

Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, A. L. Ho, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to analyze the load rejection transient of ABWR by using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes. This study has some steps. First, using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes establish the model of ABWR. Second, the key parameters are identified to refine the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model further in the frame of a steady state analysis. Third, the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model is used to perform the load rejection transient analysis. Finally, the FSAR data are used to compare with the analysis results. The results of TRACE/PARCS are consistent with the FSAR data for the important parameters. It indicates that the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model of ABWR has a good accuracy in the load rejection transient.

Keywords: ABWR, TRACE, PARCS, SNAP.

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Authors: Dong-Hyun Kim, Jin-Woong Choi, Hyeong-Yeol Kim, Sun-Kyu Park

Abstract:

This study is to evaluate the behavior of integral and segmental specimens through static and cyclic tests. Integral specimens were made with the same size to be compared with segmental specimens that were made by connected precast members. To evaluate its bending performance and serviceability, 1 integral and 3 segmental specimens were tested under static load. And 1 integral and 2 segmental specimens were tested under cyclic load, respectively. Different load ranges were considered in the cyclic tests to evaluate the safety and serviceability. The test results showed that under static loading, segmental specimens had about 94% of the integral specimen's maximum moment, averagely. Under cyclic loading, the segmental specimens showed that had enough safety in the range of higher than service load and enough serviceability. In conclusion, the maximum crack width (0.16mm) satisfied the allowable crack width (0.30mm) in the range of service load.

Keywords: Modular bridge, Transverse connection, Precast concrete, Static and cyclic test.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Mariacristina Spizzuoco, Giorgio Serino

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In this paper, the results of experimental tests performed on a Helical Wire Rope Isolator (HWRI) are presented in order to describe the dynamic and static behavior of the selected metal device in three different displacements ranges, namely small, relatively large, and large displacements ranges, without and under the effect of a vertical load. A testing machine, allowing to apply horizontal displacement or load histories to the tested bearing with a constant vertical load, has been adopted to perform the dynamic and static tests. According to the experimental results, the dynamic behavior of the tested device depends on the applied displacement amplitude. Indeed, the HWRI displays a softening and a hardening stiffness at small and relatively large displacements, respectively, and a stronger nonlinear stiffening behavior at large displacements. Furthermore, the experimental tests reveal that the application of a vertical load allows to have a more flexible device with higher damping properties and that the applied vertical load affects much less the dynamic response of the metal device at large displacements. Finally, a decrease in the static to dynamic effective stiffness ratio with increasing displacement amplitude has been observed.

Keywords: Base isolation, earthquake engineering, experimental hysteresis loops, wire rope isolators.

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Authors: Mário C. Ricci

Abstract:

A new, rapidly convergent, numerical procedure for internal loading distribution computation in statically loaded, singlerow, angular-contact ball bearings, subjected to a known combined radial and thrust load, which must be applied so that to avoid tilting between inner and outer rings, is used to find the load distribution differences between a loaded unfitted bearing at room temperature, and the same loaded bearing with interference fits that might experience radial temperature gradients between inner and outer rings. For each step of the procedure it is required the iterative solution of Z + 2 simultaneous nonlinear equations – where Z is the number of the balls – to yield exact solution for axial and radial deflections, and contact angles.

Keywords: Ball, Bearing, Static, Load, Iterative, Numerical, Method, Temperature, Fit.

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

Abstract:

The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: Demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design.

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Authors: Ahmed, M., Yasser A., Mahmoud H., Ahmed, A., Abdulla M. S., Nazar, S.

Abstract:

Strut-and-Tie Models (STM) for the design of concrete beams, comprising of struts, ties, nodes as the basic tools, is conceptually simple, but its realization for complex concrete structure is not straightforward and depends on flow of internal forces in the structure. STM technique has won wide acceptance for deep member and shear design. STM technique is a unified approach that considers all load effects (bending, axial, shear, and torsion) simultaneously, not just applicable to shear loading only. The present study is to portray Strut-and-Tie Modeling based on Load-Transfer-Mechanisms as a unified method to analyze, design and detailing for deep and slender concrete beams. Three shear span- effective depth ratio (a/ d) are recommended for the modeling of STM elements corresponding to dominant load paths. The study also discusses the research work conduct on effective stress of concrete, tie end anchorage, and transverse reinforcement demand under different load transfer mechanism. It is also highlighted that to make the STM versatile tool for design of beams applicable to all shear spans, the effective stress of concrete and, transverse reinforcement demand, inclined angle of strut, and anchorage requirements of tie bars is required to be correlated with respect to load transfer mechanism. The country code provisions are to be modified and updated to apply for generalized design of concrete deep and slender member using load transfer mechanism based STM technique. Examples available in literature are reanalyzed with refined STM based on load transfer mechanisms and results are compared. It is concluded from the results that proposed approach will require true reinforcement demand depending on dominant force transfer action in concrete beam.

Keywords: Deep member, Load transfer mechanism, Strut-and-Tie Model, Strut, Truss.

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Authors: A. S. Telang, P. P. Bedekar

Abstract:

Flexible AC transmission system controllers play an important role in controlling the line power flow and in improving voltage profiles of the power system network. They can be used to increase the reliability and efficiency of transmission and distribution system. The modeling of these FACTS controllers in power flow calculations have become a challenging research problem. This paper presents a simple and systematic approach for a steady state power flow calculations of power system with STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator). It shows how systematically STATCOM can be implemented in conventional power flow calculations. The main contribution of this paper is to investigate this approach for two special conditions i.e. consideration of load increase pattern incorporating load change (active, reactive and both active and reactive) at all load buses simultaneously and the line contingencies under such load change. Such investigation proves to be relevant for determination of strategy for the optimal placement of STATCOM to enhance the voltage stability. The performance has been evaluated on many standard IEEE test systems. The results for standard IEEE-30 bus test system are presented here.

Keywords: Load flow analysis, Newton-Raphson (N-R) power flow, Flexible AC transmission system, FACTS, Static synchronous compensator, STATCOM, voltage profile.

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Authors: H. Rezzouk, M. Hatti, H. Rahmani, S. Atoui

Abstract:

This paper discusses the design and analysis of a hybrid PV-Fuel cell energy system destined to power a DC load. The system is composed of a photovoltaic array, a fuel cell, an electrolyzer and a hydrogen tank. HOMER software is used in this study to calculate the optimum capacities of the power system components that their combination allows an efficient use of solar resource to cover the hourly load needs. The optimal system sizing allows establishing the right balance between the daily electrical energy produced by the power system and the daily electrical energy consumed by the DC load using a 28 KW PV array, a 7.5 KW fuel cell, a 40KW electrolyzer and a 270 Kg hydrogen tank. The variation of powers involved into the DC bus of the hybrid PV-fuel cell system has been computed and analyzed for each hour over one year: the output powers of the PV array and the fuel cell, the input power of the elctrolyzer system and the DC primary load. Equally, the annual variation of stored hydrogen produced by the electrolyzer has been assessed. The PV array contributes in the power system with 82% whereas the fuel cell produces 18%. 38% of the total energy consumption belongs to the DC primary load while the rest goes to the electrolyzer.

Keywords: Electrolyzer, Hydrogen, Hydrogen Fueled Cell, Photovoltaic.

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Authors: H. Alnajajra, A. Touqan, M. Dwaikat

Abstract:

The vast majority of the Middle East countries are prone to earthquakes. Despite that and from a seismic hazard point of view, the higher values of the superimposed dead load intensity of partitions and wearing materials of the constructed reinforced concrete slabs in these countries can increase the earthquake vulnerability of the structures. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of reducing superimposed dead load on the lateral seismic deformations of structures, the inter-story drifts and the seismic pounding damages. The study utilizes a group of three reinforced concrete structures at three different site conditions. These structures are assumed to be constructed in Nablus city of Palestine, and having superimposed dead load value as 1 kN/m², 3 kN/m², and 5 kN/m², respectively. SAP2000 program, Version 18.1.1, is used to perform the response spectrum analysis to obtain the potential lateral seismic deformations of the studied models. Amazingly, the study points that, at the same site, superimposed dead load has a minor effect on the lateral deflections of the models. This, however, promotes the hypothesis that buildings failed during earthquakes mainly because they were not designed appropriately against gravity loads.

Keywords: Gravity loads, inter-story drifts, lateral seismic deformations, reinforced concrete slabs, response spectrum method, SAP2000, seismic design, seismic pounding, superimposed dead load.

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Authors: Santi Behera, M. Tripathy, J. K. Satapathy

Abstract:

Power systems are operating under stressed condition due to continuous increase in demand of load. This can lead to voltage instability problem when face additional load increase or contingency. In order to avoid voltage instability suitable size of reactive power compensation at optimal location in the system is required which improves the load margin. This work aims at obtaining optimal size as well as location of compensation in the 39- bus New England system with the help of Bacteria Foraging and Genetic algorithms. To reduce the computational time the work identifies weak candidate buses in the system, and then picks only two of them to take part in the optimization. The objective function is based on a recently proposed voltage stability index which takes into account the weighted average sensitivity index is a simpler and faster approach than the conventional CPF algorithm. BFOA has been found to give better results compared to GA.

Keywords: BFOA, GA, SSVSL, WASI.

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Authors: Mat Syai'in, Adi Soeprijanto

Abstract:

An Optimal Power Flow based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (OPF-IPSO) with Generator Capability Curve Constraint is used by NN-OPF as a reference to get pattern of generator scheduling. There are three stages in Designing NN-OPF. The first stage is design of OPF-IPSO with generator capability curve constraint. The second stage is clustering load to specific range and calculating its index. The third stage is training NN-OPF using constructive back propagation method. In training process total load and load index used as input, and pattern of generator scheduling used as output. Data used in this paper is power system of Java-Bali. Software used in this simulation is MATLAB.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Generator Capability Curve, Improved Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network

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Authors: N. K. Paul, S. Saha

Abstract:

An innovative three dimensional finite element model has beed developed and tested under two point loading system to examine the structural behavior of the longitudinal reinforced concrete Tee-beam bridge girder, reinforcing with steel and shape memory alloy bars respectively. 25% of steel bars are replaced with superelastic Shape Memory Alloy bars in this study. Finite element analysis is performed using ANSYS 11.0 program. Experimentally a model of steel reinforced girder has been casted and its load deflection responses are checked with ANSYS analysis. A comparison of load carrying capacity for the model between steel RC girder and the girder combined reinforcement with SMA and steel are also performed.

Keywords: Shape memory alloy, bridge girder, ANSYS, load-deflection.

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

Abstract:

A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and distribution of worm gear drives, and to calculate the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness. In the approach, the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well-established formulae of spur gear loading and stresses. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. Based on the slicing method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share are obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: Gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line.

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Authors: Sarra Senhadji, Amar Kateb, Hafida Belbachir

Abstract:

Data replication in data grid systems is one of the important solutions that improve availability, scalability, and fault tolerance. However, this technique can also bring some involved issues such as maintaining replica consistency. Moreover, as grid environment are very dynamic some nodes can be more uploaded than the others to become eventually a bottleneck. The main idea of our work is to propose a complementary solution between replica consistency maintenance and dynamic load balancing strategy to improve access performances under a simulated grid environment.

Keywords: Consistency, replication, data grid, load balancing.

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Authors: Ernst D. Schmitter

Abstract:

There is increasing evidence that earthquakes produce electromagnetic signals observable at the surface in the extremely low to very low freqency (ELF - VLF) range often in advance to the main event. These precursors are candidates for prediction purposes. Laboratory experiments con´¼ürm that material under load emits an electromagnetic signature, the detailed generation mechanisms how- ever are not well understood yet.

Keywords: Earthquakes, ELF, EM signals from material under load, signal propagation in conductors.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

Abstract:

recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Mohammad Hossein Zade

Abstract:

This article is an attempt to present a numerically study of the behaviour of an eccentrically loaded circular footing resting on sand to determine ‎its ultimate bearing capacity. A surface circular footing of diameter 12 cm (D) was used as ‎shallow foundation. For this purpose, three dimensional models consist of foundation, and medium sandy soil was modelled by ABAQUS software. Bearing capacity of footing was evaluated and the ‎effects of the load eccentricity on bearing capacity, its settlement, and modulus of subgrade reaction were studied. Three different values of load eccentricity with equal space from inside the core on the core boundary and outside the core boundary, which were respectively e=0.75, 1.5, and 2.25 cm, were considered. The results show that by increasing the load eccentricity, the ultimate load and the ‎modulus of subgrade reaction decreased.

Keywords: Circular foundation, eccentric loading, sand, modulus of subgrade reaction.

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Authors: Mário C. Ricci

Abstract:

An alternative iterative computational procedure is proposed for internal normal ball loads calculation in statically loaded single-row, angular-contact ball bearings, subjected to a known thrust load, which is applied in the inner ring at the geometric bearing center line. An accurate method for curvature radii at contacts with inner and outer raceways in the direction of the motion is used. Numerical aspects of the iterative procedure are discussed. Numerical examples results for a 218 angular-contact ball bearing have been compared with those from the literature. Twenty figures are presented showing the geometrical features, the behavior of the convergence variables and the following parameters as functions of the thrust load: normal ball loads, contact angle, distance between curvature centers, and normal ball and axial deflections.

Keywords: Ball, Bearing, Static, Load, Iterative, Numerical, Method.

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Authors: Young-Jun You, Ki-Tae Park, Kyu-Wan Lee

Abstract:

Since prestressed concrete members rely on the tensile strength of the prestressing strands to resist loads, loss of even few them could result catastrophic. Therefore, it is important to measure present residual prestress force. Although there are some techniques for obtaining present prestress force, some problems still remain. One method is to install load cell in front of anchor head but this may increase cost. Load cell is a transducer using the elastic material property. Anchor head is also an elastic material and this might result in monitoring monitor present prestress force. Features of fiber optic sensor such as small size, great sensitivity, high durability can assign sensing function to anchor head. This paper presents the concept of smart anchor head which acts as load cell and experiment for the applicability of it. Test results showed the smart anchor head worked good and strong linear relationship between load and response.

Keywords: SHM, prestress force, anchor head, fiber optic sensor

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Authors: Azad A. Mohammed, Gulan B. Hassan

Abstract:

Analytical procedure was carried out in this paper to calculate the ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete corbels strengthened or repaired externally with CFRP sheets. Strut and tie method and shear friction method proposed earlier for analyzing reinforced concrete corbels were modified to incorporate the effect of external CFRP sheets bonded to the corbel. The points of weakness of any method that lead to an inaccuracy, especially when overestimating test results were checked and discussed. Comparison of prediction with the test data indicates that the ratio of test / calculated ultimate load is 0.82 and 1.17 using strut and tie method and shear friction method, respectively. If the limits of maximum shear stress is followed, the calculated ultimate load capacity using shear friction method was found to underestimates test data considerably.

Keywords: Corbel, Strengthening, Strut and Tie Model, Shear Friction

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Authors: M. Ali, K. Alam, E. Ohioma

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical investigation on the behavior of fiber reinforced polymer composite tubes (FRP) under thermomechanical coupled loading using finite element software ABAQUS and a special add-on subroutine, CZone. Three cases were explored; pure mechanical loading, pure thermal loading, and coupled thermomechanical loading. The failure index (Tsai-Wu) under all three loading cases was assessed for all plies in the tube walls. The simulation results under pure mechanical loading showed that composite tube failed at a tensile load of 3.1 kN. However, with the superposition of thermal load on mechanical load on the composite tube, the failure index of the previously failed plies in tube walls reduced significantly causing the tube to fail at 6 kN. This showed 93% improvement in the load carrying capacity of the composite tube in present study. The increase in load carrying capacity was attributed to the stress effects of the coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) on the laminate as well as the inter-lamina stresses induced due to the composite stack layup.

Keywords: Thermal, mechanical, composites, square tubes.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, E. Koumanakos, D. Tzelepis, V. Tampakas

Abstract:

This paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components (an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the importance of financial ratios.

Keywords: Machine learning, stacking, classifier.

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Authors: Achela K. Fernando, Xiujuan Zhang, Peter F. Kinley

Abstract:

A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system. This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method alternative to the common practice of developing a complete conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the historical data. The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to be quite poor.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Back-propagationlearning, Combined sewer overflows, Forecasting.

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Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Masoud Ghodrati, Ahmad Fahimifar

Abstract:

Pervious concrete combines considerable permeability with adequate strength, which makes it very beneficial in pavement construction and also in ground improvement projects. In this paper, a single pervious concrete pile subjected to vertical and lateral loading is analysed using a verified three dimensional finite element code. A parametric study was carried out in order to investigate load bearing capacity of a single unreinforced pervious concrete pile in saturated soft soil and also gain insight into the failure mechanism of this rather new soil improvement technique. The results show that concrete damaged plasticity constitutive model can perfectly simulate the highly brittle nature of the pervious concrete material and considering the computed vertical and horizontal load bearing capacities, some suggestions have been made for ground improvement projects.

Keywords: Concrete damaged plasticity, ground improvement, load bearing capacity, pervious concrete pile.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

Abstract:

Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Arafet Bouaicha, Hatem Allegui, Amar Rouane, El-Hassane Aglzim, Abdelkader Mami

Abstract:

In order to further understand the behavior of PEM fuel cell and optimize their performance, it is necessary to perform measurements in real time. The internal impedance measurement by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is of great importance. In this work, we present the impedance measurement method of a PEM fuel cell by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy method and the realization steps of electronic load for this measuring technique implementation. The theoretical results are obtained from the simulation of software PSPICE® and experimental tests are carried out using the Ballard Nexa™ PEM fuel cell system.

Keywords: Electronic load, MOS transistor, PEM fuel cell, Impedance measurement, Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS).

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

Abstract:

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: A. Al-Rifaie, Z. W. Guan, S. W. Jones

Abstract:

Beam to column connection can be considered as the most important structural part that affects the response of buildings to progressive collapse. However, many studies were conducted to investigate the beam to column connection under accidental loads such as fire, blast and impact load to investigate the connection response. The study is a part of a PhD plan to investigate different types of connections under lateral impact load. The conventional test setups, such as cruciform setup, were designed to apply shear forces and bending moment on the connection, whilst, in the lateral impact case, the connection is subjected to combined tension and moment. Hence, a review is presented to introduce the previous test setup that is used to investigate the connection behaviour. Then, the design and fabrication of the novel test setup is presented. Finally, some trial test results to investigate the efficiency of the proposed setup are discussed. The final results indicate that the setup was efficient in terms of the simplicity and strength.

Keywords: Connections, impact load, drop hammer, testing methods.

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