Search results for: Series
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 883

Search results for: Series

493 Building a Trend Based Segmentation Method with SVR Model for Stock Turning Detection

Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Yi-Fang Pan

Abstract:

This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market

Keywords: Trend based segmentation method, support vector machine, turning detection, stock forecasting.

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492 An Intelligent Fuzzy-Neural Diagnostic System for Osteoporosis Risk Assessment

Authors: Chin-Ming Hong, Chin-Teng Lin, Chao-Yen Huang, Yi-Ming Lin

Abstract:

In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory, which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer a series of directed questions to the system, and then they will immediately receive a list of results which represents the risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results, it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable, inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.

Keywords: BMD, osteoporosis, IMDS, fuzzy-neural theory, web interface.

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491 Study of Asphaltene Precipitation İnduced Formation Damage During CO2 Injection for a Malaysian Light Oil

Authors: Sima Sh. Alian, Abdul Aziz Omar, Ali F. Alta'ee, Irzie Hani

Abstract:

In this work, the precipitation of asphaltene from a Malaysian light oil reservoir was studies. A series of experiments were designed and carried out to examine the effect of CO2 injection on asphaltene precipitation. Different pressures of injections were used in Dynamic flooding experiment in order to investigate the effect of pressure versus injection pore volume of CO2. These dynamic displacement tests simulate reservoir condition. Results show that by increasing the pore volume of injected gas asphaltene precipitation will increases, also rise in injection pressure causes less precipitation. Sandstone core plug was used to represent reservoir formation during displacement test; therefore it made it possible to study the effect of present of asphaltene on formation. It is found out that the precipitated asphaltene can reduce permeability and porosity which is not favorable during oil production.

Keywords: Asphaltene, asphaltene precipitation, enhanced oil recovery.

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490 Fabrication and Characterization of Al/Methyl Orange/n-Si Heterojunction Diode

Authors: Muhammad Tahir, Muhammad H. Sayyad, Dil N. Khan, Fazal Wahab

Abstract:

Herein, the organic semiconductor methyl orange (MO), is investigated for the first time for its electronic applications. For this purpose, Al/MO/n-Si heterojunction is fabricated through economical cheap and simple “drop casting” technique. The currentvoltage (I-V) measurements of the device are made at room temperature under dark conditions. The I-V characteristics of Al/MO/n-Si junction exhibits asymmetrical and rectifying behavior that confirms the formation of diode. The diode parameters such as rectification ratio (RR), turn on voltage (Vturn on), reverse saturation current (I0), ideality factor (n), barrier height ( b f ), series resistance (Rs) and shunt resistance (Rsh) are determined from I-V curves using Schottky equations. These values of these parameters are also extracted and verified by applying Cheung’s functions. The conduction mechanisms are explained from the forward bias I-V characteristics using the power law.

Keywords: Electrical properties, Organic/inorganic heterojunction diode, Methyl Orange, Cheungs Functions

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489 Signal Generator Circuit Carrying Information as Embedded Features from Multi-Transducer Signals

Authors: Sheroz Khan, Mustafa Zeki, Shihab Abdel Hameed, AHM Zahirul Alam, Aisha Hassan Abdalla, A. F. Salami, W. A. Lawal

Abstract:

A novel circuit for generating a signal embedded with features about data from three sensors is presented. This suggested circuit is making use of a resistance-to-time converter employing a bridge amplifier, an integrator and a comparator. The second resistive sensor (Rz) is transformed into duty cycle. Another bridge with varying resistor, (Ry) in the feedback of an OP AMP is added in series to change the amplitude of the resulting signal in a proportional relationship while keeping the same frequency and duty cycle representing proportional changes in resistors Rx and Rz already mentioned. The resultant output signal carries three types of information embedded as variations of its frequency, duty cycle and amplitude.

Keywords: Integrator, Comparator, Bridge Circuit, Resistanceto-Time Converter, Conditioning Circuit.

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488 Effect of Plastic Fines on Liquefaction Resistance of Sandy Soil Using Resonant Column Test

Authors: S. A. Naeini, M. Ghorbani Tochaee

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to assess the influence of plastic fines content on sand-clay mixtures on maximum shear modulus and liquefaction resistance using a series of resonant column tests. A high plasticity clay called bentonite was added to 161 Firoozkooh sand at the percentages of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 by dry weight. The resonant column tests were performed on the remolded specimens at constant confining pressure of 100 KPa and then the values of Gmax and liquefaction resistance were investigated. The maximum shear modulus and cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) are examined in terms of fines content. Based on the results, the maximum shear modulus and liquefaction resistance tend to decrease within the increment of fine contents.

Keywords: Gmax, liquefaction, plastic fines, resonant column, sand-clay mixtures, bentonite.

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487 A Family of Zero Stable Block Integrator for the Solutions of Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. M. Sagir

Abstract:

In this paper, linear multistep technique using power series as the basis function is used to develop the block methods which are suitable for generating direct solution of the special second order ordinary differential equations with associated initial or boundary conditions. The continuous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain two different four discrete schemes, each of order (5,5,5,5)T, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. The computational burden and computer time wastage involved in the usual reduction of second order problem into system of first order equations are avoided by this approach. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block methods are tested on linear and non-linear ordinary differential equations and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.

Keywords: Block Method, Hybrid, Linear Multistep Method, Self – starting, Special Second Order.

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486 SMRF Seismic Response: Unequal Beam Depths

Authors: Babak H. Mamamqani, Alimohammad Entezarmahdi

Abstract:

There are many researches on parameters affecting seismic behavior of steel moment frames. Great deal of these researches considers cover plate connections with or without haunch and direct beam to column connection for exterior columns. Also there are experimental results for interior connections with equal beam depth on both sides but not much research has been performed on the seismic behavior of joints with unequal beam depth. Based on previous experimental results, a series of companion analyses have been set up considering different beam height and connection detailing configuration to investigate the seismic behavior of the connections. Results of this study indicate that when the differences between beams height on both side increases, use of haunch connection system leads to significant improvement in the seismic response whereas other configurations did not provide satisfying results.

Keywords: Analytical modeling, Haunch connection, Seismic design, Unequal beam depth.

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485 Using Collaborative Pictures to Understand Student Experience

Authors: Tessa Berg, Emma Guion Akdag

Abstract:

Summative feedback forms are used in academia for gathering data on course quality and student understanding. Students answer a series of questions based on the course they are soon to finish in these forms. Feedback forms are notorious for being homogenised and limiting and thus the data captured is often neutral and lacking in tacit emotional responses. This paper contrasts student feedback forms with collaborative drawing. We analyse 19 pictures drawn by international students on a pre-sessional course. Through visuals we present an approach to enable a holistic level of student understanding. Visuals communicate irrespective of possible language, cultural and educational barriers. This paper sought to discover if the pictures mirrored the feedback given on a typical feedback form. Findings indicate a considerable difference in the two approaches and thus we highlight the value of collaborative drawing as a complimentary resource to aid the understanding of student experience.

Keywords: Feedback forms, visualisation, student experience, collaborative drawing.

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484 Simulation and Analytical Investigation of Different Combination of Single Phase Power Transformers

Authors: M. Salih Taci, N. Tayebi, I. Bozkır

Abstract:

In this paper, the equivalent circuit of the ideal single-phase power transformer with its appropriate voltage current measurement was presented. The calculated values of the voltages and currents of the different connections single phase normal transformer and the results of the simulation process are compared. As it can be seen, the calculated results are the same as the simulated results. This paper includes eight possible different transformer connections. Depending on the desired voltage level, step-down and step-up application transformer is considered. Modelling and analysis of a system consisting of an equivalent source, transformer (primary and secondary), and loads are performed to investigate the combinations. The obtained values are simulated in PSpice environment and then how the currents, voltages and phase angle are distributed between them is explained based on calculation.

Keywords: Transformer, simulation, equivalent model, parallel series combinations.

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483 Stress Distribution in Axisymmetric Indentation of an Elastic Layer-Substrate Body

Authors: Kotaro Miura, Makoto Sakamoto, Yuji Tanabe

Abstract:

We focus on internal stress and displacement of an elastic axisymmetric contact problem for indentation of a layer-substrate body. An elastic layer is assumed to be perfectly bonded to an elastic semi-infinite substrate. The elastic layer is smoothly indented with a flat-ended cylindrical indenter. The analytical and exact solutions were obtained by solving an infinite system of simultaneous equations using the method to express a normal contact stress at the upper surface of the elastic layer as an appropriate series. This paper presented the numerical results of internal stress and displacement distributions for hard-coating system with constant values of Poisson’s ratio and the thickness of elastic layer.

Keywords: Indentation, contact problem, stress distribution, coating materials, layer-substrate body.

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482 A Review on Hydraulic and Morphological Characteristics in River Channels Due to Spurs

Authors: M. Alauddin, M. M. Hossain, M. N. Uddin, M. E. Haque

Abstract:

An optimal design of a spur is the first requirement to make it sustainable and function properly. In view of that, a thorough understanding to the hydro- and morpho-dynamics due to spurs is essential. This paper presents a literature review on the effect of spurs to obtain the most recent design criteria. Perpendicular and upstream aligned impermeable spurs have large disturbances to flow and less stability because of strong vortices and associated scour. Downstream aligned spurs minimize scour holes, but there is a chance of strong return current which could be controlled allowing flow through them. A series arrangement of spurs is important to have the desired results with a special care for the first one. Several equations have been presented in the paper for predicting the scour depth. But, they have to be used carefully. Different flow environments developed by spurs are favorable for various aquatic species. However, it is important to maintain almost a stable flow condition providing stable spurs.

Keywords: Bed topography, flow pattern, scour, spur.

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481 Development of Split Air-Conditioning System using Chill Water as the Cooling Medium

Authors: Faezzan Madli, Zamri Noranai, Md. Norrizam Mohamad Jaat, Hamidon Salleh, Mohammad Zainal Md Yusof

Abstract:

Current air conditioning system is using refrigerant as the cooling medium. The main purpose of this study is to develop an air conditioning system using chill water as the cooling medium. In this system, chill water used to replace refrigerant as the cooling medium. This study is focus on the split type unit air conditioning system only. It will be involving some renovation on the indoor unit and freezer. The cooling capability of this system was validate by few series of testing, which conducted at standard 36m3 office room. Result of the testing found that 0.1 m3 of chill water is able to maintain the room temperature within standard up to 4 ~ 8 hours. It expected able to maintain room temperature up to 10 hour with some improvement.

Keywords: Chill water, air-condition, office room.

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480 An Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Multiobjective Problems

Authors: Houda Abadlia, Nadia Smairi, Khaled Ghedira

Abstract:

Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) has shown an effective performance for solving test functions and real-world optimization problems. However, this method has a premature convergence problem, which may lead to lack of diversity. In order to improve its performance, this paper presents a hybrid approach which embedded the MOPSO into the island model and integrated a local search technique, Variable Neighborhood Search, to enhance the diversity into the swarm. Experiments on two series of test functions have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A comparison with other evolutionary algorithms shows that the proposed approach presented a good performance in solving multiobjective optimization problems.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, migration, variable neighborhood search, multiobjective optimization.

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479 Dopamine and Serotonin Levels in Blood Samples of Jordanian Children Who Stutter

Authors: Mazin Alqhazo, Ayat Bani Rashaid

Abstract:

This study examines the levels of dopamine and serotonin in blood samples of children who stutter compared with normal fluent speakers. Blood specimens from 50 children who stutter (6 females, 44 males) and 50 normal children matched age and gender were collected for the purpose of the current study. The concentrations of dopamine and serotonin were measured using the 1100 series high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with ultraviolet detector instrument (HPLC-UV). It was revealed that dopamine level in the blood samples of stuttering group and fluent group was not significant (P = 0.769), whereas the level of serotonin was significantly higher in the blood samples of stuttering group than the blood samples of fluent normal group (P = 0.015). It is concluded that serotonin blockers could be used in future studies to evaluate its role as a medication for the treatment of stuttering.

Keywords: Dopamine, serotonin, stuttering, fluent.

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478 Individual Learning and Collaborative Knowledge Building with Shared Digital Artifacts

Authors: Joachim Kimmerle, Johannes Moskaliuk, Ulrike Cress

Abstract:

The development of Internet technology in recent years has led to a more active role of users in creating Web content. This has significant effects both on individual learning and collaborative knowledge building. This paper will present an integrative framework model to describe and explain learning and knowledge building with shared digital artifacts on the basis of Luhmann-s systems theory and Piaget-s model of equilibration. In this model, knowledge progress is based on cognitive conflicts resulting from incongruities between an individual-s prior knowledge and the information which is contained in a digital artifact. Empirical support for the model will be provided by 1) applying it descriptively to texts from Wikipedia, 2) examining knowledge-building processes using a social network analysis, and 3) presenting a survey of a series of experimental laboratory studies.

Keywords: Individual learning, collaborative knowledge building, systems theory, equilibration.

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477 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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476 Problems of the Management of Legal Entities of Private Law in Georgia

Authors: Ketevan Kokrashvili, Rusudan Kutateladze, Nino Pailodze

Abstract:

Importance of management of legal entities under private law of which especially corporate management, as well as looking for ways of its improvement and perfection has become especially relevant in the twenty-first century, which was greatly contributed to by the global economic crisis. Some states have adopted Corporate Governance Codes; the European Union has set to work on a series of directives the main purpose of which is an improvement of corporate governance, provision of greater transparency and implementation of an effective control mechanism. This process is not yet completed, and various problematic issues associated with management of legal persons are still being debated among practitioner experts and scholars. Georgia is not an exception in this regard. The article discusses the legislative gaps, and in some cases, discrepancies having arisen in legal relationships under private law and having caused many practical problems. This especially applies to the management of capital companies.

Keywords: Business entities, corporate management, public capital management, collective norms, existing problems, legal discrepancies.

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475 An Efficient Approach for Optimal Placement of TCSC in Double Auction Power Market

Authors: Prashant Kumar Tiwari, Yog Raj Sood

Abstract:

This paper proposes an investment cost recovery based efficient and fast sequential optimization approach to optimal allocation of thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) in competitive power market. The optimization technique has been used with an objective to maximizing the social welfare and minimizing the device installation cost by suitable location and rating of TCSC in the system. The effectiveness of proposed approach for location of TCSC has been compared with some existing methods of TCSC placement, in terms of its impact on social welfare, TCSC investment recovery and optimal generation as well as load patterns. The results have been obtained on modified IEEE 14-bus system.

Keywords: Double auction market, Investment cost recovery, Optimal location, Social welfare, TCSC

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474 Dissertation by Portfolio - A Break from Traditional Approaches

Authors: Paul Crowther, Richard Hill

Abstract:

Much has been written about the difficulties students have with producing traditional dissertations. This includes both native English speakers (L1) and students with English as a second language (L2). The main emphasis of these papers has been on the structure of the dissertation, but in all cases, even when electronic versions are discussed, the dissertation is still in what most would regard as a traditional written form. Master of Science Degrees in computing disciplines require students to gain technical proficiency and apply their knowledge to a range of scenarios. The basis of this paper is that if a dissertation is a means of showing that such a student has met the criteria for a pass, which should be based on the learning outcomes of the dissertation module, does meeting those outcomes require a student to demonstrate their skills in a solely text based form, particularly in a highly technical research project? Could it be possible for a student to produce a series of related artifacts which form a cohesive package that meets the learning out comes of the dissertation?

Keywords: Computing, Masters dissertation, thesis, portfolio

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473 Investigation of Temperature-Dependent Electrical Properties of Tc-CuPc: PCBM Bulk Heterojunction (BHJ) under Dark Conditions

Authors: Shahid M. Khan, Muhammad H. Sayyad

Abstract:

An organic bulk heterojunction (BHJ) was fabricated using a blended film containing Copper (II) tetrakis(4-acumylphenoxy) phthalocyanine (Tc-CuPc) along with [6,6]-Phenyl C61 butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM). Weight ratio between Tc-CuPc and PCBM was 1:1. The electrical properties of Tc-CuPc: PCBM BHJ were examined. Rectifying nature of the BHJ was displayed by current-voltage (I-V) curves, recorded in dark and at various temperatures. At low voltages, conduction was ohmic succeeded by space-charge limiting current (SCLC) conduction at higher voltages in which exponential trap distribution was dominant. Series resistance, shunt resistance, ideality factor, effective barrier height and mobility at room temperature were found to be 526 4, 482 k4, 3.7, 0.17 eV and 2×10-7 cm2V-1s-1 respectively. Temperature effect towards different BHJ parameters was observed under dark condition.

Keywords: Bulk heterojunction, PCBM, phthalocyanine, spin coating.

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472 Casting Users- Perspectives on Foundries as Suppliers

Authors: T. Saarelainen, O. Piha, P. Makkonen, J. Orkas

Abstract:

Global competition is tightening and companies have to think how to remain competitive. The main aim of this paper is to discuss how Finnish foundries will remain competitive. To fulfil the aim, we conducted interviews in nine companies using castings and analysed buyer–supplier relationships, current competitive advantages of Finnish foundries and customer perspectives on how Finnish foundries remain competitive. We found that the customerfoundry relationship is still closer to traditional subcontracting than partnering and general image of foundries is negative. Current competitive advantages of Finnish foundries include designing cooperation, proximity and flexibility. Casting users state that Finnish foundries should sell their know-how and services instead of their capacity, concentrate on prototype, single and short series castings and supply ready-to-install cast components directly to customers- assembly lines.

Keywords: Buyer-supplier relationship, casting, competitiveadvantage, customer prespective.

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471 A Comparative Study between Discrete Wavelet Transform and Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform for Testing Stationarity

Authors: Amel Abdoullah Ahmed Dghais, Mohd Tahir Ismail

Abstract:

In this paper the core objective is to apply discrete wavelet transform and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform functions namely Haar, Daubechies2, Symmlet4, Coiflet2 and discrete approximation of the Meyer wavelets in non stationary financial time series data from Dow Jones index (DJIA30) of US stock market. The data consists of 2048 daily data of closing index from December 17, 2004 to October 23, 2012. Unit root test affirms that the data is non stationary in the level. A comparison between the results to transform non stationary data to stationary data using aforesaid transforms is given which clearly shows that the decomposition stock market index by discrete wavelet transform is better than maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform for original data.

Keywords: Discrete wavelet transform, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, stationarity, autocorrelation function.

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470 Study on the Influence of Cladding and Finishing Materials of Apartment Buildings on the Architectural Identity of Amman, Jordan

Authors: Asil Y. Zureigat, Ayat A. Oudat

Abstract:

Analyzing the old and bringing in the new is an ever-ongoing process in driving innovations in architecture. This paper looks at the excessive use of stone in apartment buildings in Amman and speculates on the existing possibilities of changing the cladding material. By looking at architectural exceptions present in Amman, the paper seeks to make the exception the rule, by adding new materials to the architectural library of Amman and in turn, project a series of possible new identities to the existing stone scape. Through distributing a survey, conducting a photographic study on exceptional buildings and shedding light on the historical narrative of stone, the paper highlights the ways in which new finishing materials such as plaster, paint and stone variations could be introduced in an attempt to project a new architectural identity to Amman.

Keywords: Architectural city identity, cladding materials, façade architecture, image of the city.

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469 Contributions of Non-Formal Educational Spaces for the Scientific Literacy of Deaf Students

Authors: Rafael Dias Silva

Abstract:

The school is a social institution that should promote learning situations that remain throughout life. Based on this, the teaching activities promoted in museum spaces can represent an educational strategy that contributes to the learning process in a more meaningful way. This article systematizes a series of elements that guide the use of these spaces for the scientific literacy of deaf students and as experiences of this nature are favorable for the school development through the concept of the circularity. The methodology for the didactic use of these spaces of non-formal education is one of the reflections developed in this study and how such environments can contribute to the learning in the classroom. To develop in the student the idea of ​​association making him create connections with the curricular proposal and notice how the proposed activity is articulated. It is in our interest that the experience lived in the museum be shared collaborating for the construction of a scientific literacy and cultural identity through the research.

Keywords: Accessibility in museums, Brazilian sign language, deaf students, teacher training.

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468 Implementation of On-Line Cutting Stock Problem on NC Machines

Authors: Jui P. Hung, Hsia C. Chang, Yuan L. Lai

Abstract:

Introduction applicability of high-speed cutting stock problem (CSP) is presented in this paper. Due to the orders continued coming in from various on-line ways for a professional cutting company, to stay competitive, such a business has to focus on sustained production at high levels. In others words, operators have to keep the machine running to stay ahead of the pack. Therefore, the continuous stock cutting problem with setup is proposed to minimize the cutting time and pattern changing time to meet the on-line given demand. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to solve the problem directly by using cutting patterns directly. A major advantage of the proposed method in series on-line production is that the system can adjust the cutting plan according to the floating orders. Examples with multiple items are demonstrated. The results show considerable efficiency and reliability in high-speed cutting of CSP.

Keywords: Cutting stock, Optimization, Heuristics

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467 Segmentation of Korean Words on Korean Road Signs

Authors: Lae-Jeong Park, Kyusoo Chung, Jungho Moon

Abstract:

This paper introduces an effective method of segmenting Korean text (place names in Korean) from a Korean road sign image. A Korean advanced directional road sign is composed of several types of visual information such as arrows, place names in Korean and English, and route numbers. Automatic classification of the visual information and extraction of Korean place names from the road sign images make it possible to avoid a lot of manual inputs to a database system for management of road signs nationwide. We propose a series of problem-specific heuristics that correctly segments Korean place names, which is the most crucial information, from the other information by leaving out non-text information effectively. The experimental results with a dataset of 368 road sign images show 96% of the detection rate per Korean place name and 84% per road sign image.

Keywords: Segmentation, road signs, characters, classification.

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466 Experimental Analysis of Diesel Hydrotreating Reactor to Development a Simplified Tool for Process Real- time Optimization

Authors: S.Shokri, S.Zahedi, M.Ahmadi Marvast, B. Baloochi, H.Ganji

Abstract:

In this research, a systematic investigation was carried out to determine the optimum conditions of HDS reactor. Moreover, a suitable model was developed for a rigorous RTO (real time optimization) loop of HDS (Hydro desulfurization) process. A systematic experimental series was designed based on CCD (Central Composite design) and carried out in the related pilot plant to tune the develop model. The designed variables in the experiments were Temperature, LHSV and pressure. However, the hydrogen over fresh feed ratio was remained constant. The ranges of these variables were respectively equal to 320-380ºC, 1- 21/hr and 50-55 bar. a power law kinetic model was also developed for our further research in the future .The rate order and activation energy , power of reactant concentration and frequency factor of this model was respectively equal to 1.4, 92.66 kJ/mol and k0=2.7*109 .

Keywords: Statistical model, Multiphase Reactors, Gas oil, Hydrodesulfurization, Optimization, Kinetics

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465 The Long Run Relationship between Exports and Imports in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

This study empirically examines the long run equilibrium relationship between South Africa’s exports and imports using quarterly data from 1985 to 2012. The theoretical framework used for the study is based on Johansen’s Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique which tests for both the existence and number of cointegration vectors that exists. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant cointegrating relationship is found to exist between exports and imports. The study models this unique linear and lagged relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings of the study confirm the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports.

Keywords: Cointegration lagged, linear, maximum likelihood, vector error correction model.

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464 Determination of Sequential Best Replies in N-player Games by Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Mattheos K. Protopapas, Elias B. Kosmatopoulos

Abstract:

An iterative algorithm is proposed and tested in Cournot Game models, which is based on the convergence of sequential best responses and the utilization of a genetic algorithm for determining each player-s best response to a given strategy profile of its opponents. An extra outer loop is used, to address the problem of finite accuracy, which is inherent in genetic algorithms, since the set of feasible values in such an algorithm is finite. The algorithm is tested in five Cournot models, three of which have convergent best replies sequence, one with divergent sequential best replies and one with “local NE traps"[14], where classical local search algorithms fail to identify the Nash Equilibrium. After a series of simulations, we conclude that the algorithm proposed converges to the Nash Equilibrium, with any level of accuracy needed, in all but the case where the sequential best replies process diverges.

Keywords: Best response, Cournot oligopoly, genetic algorithms, Nash equilibrium.

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