Search results for: LSE estimate

Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Jian Shi, Baoguo Yu, Haonan Jia, Meng Liu, Ping Huang

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Adapting to the flexibility of war, a large number of guided weapons launch from aircraft. Therefore, the inertial navigation system loaded in the weapon needs to undergo an alignment process in the air. This article proposes the following methods to the problem of inaccurate modeling of the system under large misalignment angles, the accuracy reduction of filtering caused by outliers, and the noise changes in GPS signals: first, considering the large misalignment errors of Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS)/GPS, a more accurate model is made rather than to make a small-angle approximation, and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithms are used to estimate the state; then, taking into account the impact of GPS noise changes on the fine alignment algorithm, the innovation adaptive filtering algorithm is introduced to estimate the GPS’s noise in real-time; at the same time, in order to improve the anti-interference ability of the air fine alignment algorithm, a robust filtering algorithm based on outlier detection is combined with the air fine alignment algorithm to improve the robustness of the algorithm. The algorithm can improve the alignment accuracy and robustness under interference conditions, which is verified by simulation.

Keywords: Air alignment, fine alignment, inertial navigation system, integrated navigation system, UKF.

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Authors: Mahmoud M. S. Albattah

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In this paper, to optimize the “Characteristic Straight Line Method" which is used in the soil displacement analysis, a “best estimate" of the geodetic leveling observations has been achieved by taking in account the concept of 'Height systems'. This concept has been discussed in detail and consequently the concept of “height". In landslides dynamic analysis, the soil is considered as a mosaic of rigid blocks. The soil displacement has been monitored and analyzed by using the “Characteristic Straight Line Method". Its characteristic components have been defined constructed from a “best estimate" of the topometric observations. In the measurement of elevation differences, we have used the most modern leveling equipment available. Observational procedures have also been designed to provide the most effective method to acquire data. In addition systematic errors which cannot be sufficiently controlled by instrumentation or observational techniques are minimized by applying appropriate corrections to the observed data: the level collimation correction minimizes the error caused by nonhorizontality of the leveling instrument's line of sight for unequal sight lengths, the refraction correction is modeled to minimize the refraction error caused by temperature (density) variation of air strata, the rod temperature correction accounts for variation in the length of the leveling rod' s Invar/LO-VAR® strip which results from temperature changes, the rod scale correction ensures a uniform scale which conforms to the international length standard and the introduction of the concept of the 'Height systems' where all types of height (orthometric, dynamic, normal, gravity correction, and equipotential surface) have been investigated. The “Characteristic Straight Line Method" is slightly more convenient than the “Characteristic Circle Method". It permits to evaluate a displacement of very small magnitude even when the displacement is of an infinitesimal quantity. The inclination of the landslide is given by the inverse of the distance reference point O to the “Characteristic Straight Line". Its direction is given by the bearing of the normal directed from point O to the Characteristic Straight Line (Fig..6). A “best estimate" of the topometric observations was used to measure the elevation of points carefully selected, before and after the deformation. Gross errors have been eliminated by statistical analyses and by comparing the heights within local neighborhoods. The results of a test using an area where very interesting land surface deformation occurs are reported. Monitoring with different options and qualitative comparison of results based on a sufficient number of check points are presented.

Keywords: Characteristic straight line method, dynamic height, landslides, orthometric height, systematic errors.

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Authors: Nazrina Aziz, Dong Q. Wang

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There have been various methods created based on the regression ideas to resolve the problem of data set containing censored observations, i.e. the Buckley-James method, Miller-s method, Cox method, and Koul-Susarla-Van Ryzin estimators. Even though comparison studies show the Buckley-James method performs better than some other methods, it is still rarely used by researchers mainly because of the limited diagnostics analysis developed for the Buckley-James method thus far. Therefore, a diagnostic tool for the Buckley-James method is proposed in this paper. It is called the renovated Cook-s Distance, (RD* i ) and has been developed based on the Cook-s idea. The renovated Cook-s Distance (RD* i ) has advantages (depending on the analyst demand) over (i) the change in the fitted value for a single case, DFIT* i as it measures the influence of case i on all n fitted values Yˆ∗ (not just the fitted value for case i as DFIT* i) (ii) the change in the estimate of the coefficient when the ith case is deleted, DBETA* i since DBETA* i corresponds to the number of variables p so it is usually easier to look at a diagnostic measure such as RD* i since information from p variables can be considered simultaneously. Finally, an example using Stanford Heart Transplant data is provided to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tool.

Keywords: Buckley-James estimators, censored regression, censored data, diagnostic analysis, product-limit estimator, renovated Cook's Distance.

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: Logistic Regression LoR, Kernel Density Estimator KDE, Handwriting, Confidence Interval, Repeatability, Reproducibility.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: F. O. Faithpraise, J. Idung, C. R. Chatwin, R. C. D. Young, P. Birch

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A continuous time model of the interaction between crop insect pests and naturally beneficial pest enemies is created using a set of simultaneous, non-linear, ordinary differential equations incorporating natural death rates based on the Weibull distribution. The crop pest is present in all its life-cycle stages of: egg, larva, pupa and adult. The beneficial insects, parasitoid wasps, may be present in either or all parasitized: eggs, larva and pupa. Population modelling is used to estimate the quantity of the natural pest enemies that should be introduced into the pest infested environment to suppress the pest population density to an economically acceptable level within a prescribed number of days. The results obtained illustrate the effect of different combinations of parasitoid wasps, using the Pascal distribution to estimate their success in parasitizing different pest developmental stages, to deliver pest control to a sustainable level. Effective control, within a prescribed number of days, is established by the deployment of two or all three species of wasps, which partially destroy pest: egg, larvae and pupae stages. The selected scenarios demonstrate effective sustainable control of the pest in less than thirty days.

Keywords: Biological control, Diamondback moth, Parasitoid wasps, Population modeling.

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Authors: S. Farid F. Mojtahedi, Ali Khosravi, Behnaz Naeimian, S. Adel A. Hosseini

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Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the land surface from changes that take place underground. There are different causes of land subsidence; most notably, ground-water overdraft and severe weather conditions. Subsidence of the land surface due to ground water overdraft is caused by an increase in the intergranular pressure in unconsolidated aquifers, which results in a loss of buoyancy of solid particles in the zone dewatered by the falling water table and accordingly compaction of the aquifer. On the other hand, exploitation of underground water may result in significant changes in degree of saturation of soil layers above the water table, increasing the effective stress in these layers, and considerable soil settlements. This study focuses on estimation of soil moisture at surface using different methods. Specifically, different methods for the estimation of moisture content at the soil surface, as an important term to solve Richard’s equation and estimate soil moisture profile are presented, and their results are discussed through comparison with field measurements obtained from Yanco1 station in south-eastern Australia. Surface soil moisture is not easy to measure at the spatial scale of a catchment. Due to the heterogeneity of soil type, land use, and topography, surface soil moisture may change considerably in space and time.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, empirical method, remote sensing, surface soil moisture, unsaturated soil.

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Authors: Xiaochuan Chen, Jianguo Yang, Beizhi Li

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Design for cost (DFC) is a method that reduces life cycle cost (LCC) from the angle of designers. Multiple domain features mapping (MDFM) methodology was given in DFC. Using MDFM, we can use design features to estimate the LCC. From the angle of DFC, the design features of family cars were obtained, such as all dimensions, engine power and emission volume. At the conceptual design stage, cars- LCC were estimated using back propagation (BP) artificial neural networks (ANN) method and case-based reasoning (CBR). Hamming space was used to measure the similarity among cases in CBR method. Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm and genetic algorithm (GA) were used in ANN. The differences of LCC estimation model between CBR and artificial neural networks (ANN) were provided. ANN and CBR separately each method has its shortcomings. By combining ANN and CBR improved results accuracy was obtained. Firstly, using ANN selected some design features that affect LCC. Then using LCC estimation results of ANN could raise the accuracy of LCC estimation in CBR method. Thirdly, using ANN estimate LCC errors and correct errors in CBR-s estimation results if the accuracy is not enough accurate. Finally, economically family cars and sport utility vehicle (SUV) was given as LCC estimation cases using this hybrid approach combining ANN and CBR.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, life cycle cost (LCC), artificialneural networks (ANN), family cars

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Manisha Prashar, Pourush Bassi, Atul Bisht

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Software effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The performances of the developed models were tested on NASA software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.

Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model, GA Based Model, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Alireza Gholami, Amir H. D. Markazi

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In this paper, an observer-based direct adaptive fuzzy sliding mode (OAFSM) algorithm is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the zero-input dynamics of the plant could be unknown. The input connection matrix is used to combine the sliding surfaces of individual subsystems, and an adaptive fuzzy algorithm is used to estimate an equivalent sliding mode control input directly. The fuzzy membership functions, which were determined by time consuming try and error processes in previous works, are adjusted by adaptive algorithms. The other advantage of the proposed controller is that the input gain matrix is not limited to be diagonal, i.e. the plant could be over/under actuated provided that controllability and observability are preserved. An observer is constructed to directly estimate the state tracking error, and the nonlinear part of the observer is constructed by an adaptive fuzzy algorithm. The main advantage of the proposed observer is that, the measured outputs is not limited to the first entry of a canonical-form state vector. The closed-loop stability of the proposed method is proved using a Lyapunov-based approach. The proposed method is applied numerically on a multi-link robot manipulator, which verifies the performance of the closed-loop control. Moreover, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with some conventional control algorithms.

Keywords: Adaptive algorithm, fuzzy systems, membership functions, observer.

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Authors: Rupesh K. Gopal, Saroj K. Meher

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In this report we present a rule-based approach to detect anomalous telephone calls. The method described here uses subscriber usage CDR (call detail record) data sampled over two observation periods: study period and test period. The study period contains call records of customers- non-anomalous behaviour. Customers are first grouped according to their similar usage behaviour (like, average number of local calls per week, etc). For customers in each group, we develop a probabilistic model to describe their usage. Next, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. Then we determine thresholds by calculating acceptable change within a group. MLE is used on the data in the test period to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. These parameters are compared against thresholds. Any deviation beyond the threshold is used to raise an alarm. This method has the advantage of identifying local anomalies as compared to techniques which identify global anomalies. The method is tested for 90 days of study data and 10 days of test data of telecom customers. For medium to large deviations in the data in test window, the method is able to identify 90% of anomalous usage with less than 1% false alarm rate.

Keywords: Subscription fraud, fraud detection, anomalydetection, maximum likelihood estimation, rule based systems.

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Authors: Carolina B. Baguio

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One of the purposes of the robust method of estimation is to reduce the influence of outliers in the data, on the estimates. The outliers arise from gross errors or contamination from distributions with long tails. The trimmed mean is a robust estimate. This means that it is not sensitive to violation of distributional assumptions of the data. It is called an adaptive estimate when the trimming proportion is determined from the data rather than being fixed a “priori-. The main objective of this study is to find out the robustness properties of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of efficiency, high breakdown point and influence function. Specifically, it seeks to find out the magnitude of the trimming proportion of the adaptive trimmed mean which will yield efficient and robust estimates of the parameter for data which follow a modified Weibull distribution with parameter λ = 1/2 , where the trimming proportion is determined by a ratio of two trimmed means defined as the tail length. Secondly, the asymptotic properties of the tail length and the trimmed means are also investigated. Finally, a comparison is made on the efficiency of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of the standard deviation for the trimming proportions and when these were fixed a “priori". The asymptotic tail lengths defined as the ratio of two trimmed means and the asymptotic variances were computed by using the formulas derived. While the values of the standard deviations for the derived tail lengths for data of size 40 simulated from a Weibull distribution were computed for 100 iterations using a computer program written in Pascal language. The findings of the study revealed that the tail lengths of the Weibull distribution increase in magnitudes as the trimming proportions increase, the measure of the tail length and the adaptive trimmed mean are asymptotically independent as the number of observations n becomes very large or approaching infinity, the tail length is asymptotically distributed as the ratio of two independent normal random variables, and the asymptotic variances decrease as the trimming proportions increase. The simulation study revealed empirically that the standard error of the adaptive trimmed mean using the ratio of tail lengths is relatively smaller for different values of trimming proportions than its counterpart when the trimming proportions were fixed a 'priori'.

Keywords: Adaptive robust estimate, asymptotic efficiency, breakdown point, influence function, L-estimates, location parameter, tail length, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Carlos H. Cuadra

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Seismic isolation can be used as a retrofit method for historical buildings with the advantage that minimum intervention on super-structure is required. However, selection of isolation devices depends on weight and stiffness of upper structure. In this study, two buildings are considered for analyses to evaluate the applicability of this retrofitting methodology. Both buildings are located at Akita prefecture in the north part of Japan. One building is a wooden structure that corresponds to the old council meeting hall of Noshiro city. The second building is a brick masonry structure that was used as house of a foreign mining engineer and it is located at Ani town. Ambient vibration measurements were performed on both buildings to estimate their dynamic characteristics. Then, target period of vibration of isolated systems is selected as 3 seconds is selected to estimate required stiffness of isolation devices. For wooden structure, which is a light construction, it was found that natural rubber isolators in combination with friction bearings are suitable for seismic isolation. In case of masonry building elastomeric isolator can be used for its seismic isolation. Lumped mass systems are used for seismic response analysis and it is verified in both cases that seismic isolation can be used as retrofitting method of historical construction. However, in the case of the light building, most of the weight corresponds to the reinforced concrete slab that is required to install isolation devices.

Keywords: Historical building, finite element method, masonry structure, seismic isolation, wooden structure.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The practical efficient approach is suggested to estimate the high-speed objects instant bounds in C-OTDR monitoring systems. In case of super-dynamic objects (trains, cars) is difficult to obtain the adequate estimate of the instantaneous object localization because of estimation lag. In other words, reliable estimation coordinates of monitored object requires taking some time for data observation collection by means of C-OTDR system, and only if the required sample volume will be collected the final decision could be issued. But it is contrary to requirements of many real applications. For example, in rail traffic management systems we need to get data of the dynamic objects localization in real time. The way to solve this problem is to use the set of statistical independent parameters of C-OTDR signals for obtaining the most reliable solution in real time. The parameters of this type we can call as «signaling parameters» (SP). There are several the SP’s which carry information about dynamic objects instant localization for each of COTDR channels. The problem is that some of these parameters are very sensitive to dynamics of seismoacoustic emission sources, but are non-stable. On the other hand, in case the SP is very stable it becomes insensitive as rule. This report contains describing of the method for SP’s co-processing which is designed to get the most effective dynamic objects localization estimates in the C-OTDR monitoring system framework.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, co-processing of signaling parameters, high-speed objects localization, multichannel monitoring systems.

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Authors: V. T. S. Dao, T. G. Etoh, C. Vo Le, H. D. Nguyen, K. Takehara, T. Akino, K. Nishi

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Since 2004, we have been developing an in-situ storage image sensor (ISIS) that captures more than 100 consecutive images at a frame rate of 10 Mfps with ultra-high sensitivity as well as the video camera for use with this ISIS. Currently, basic research is continuing in an attempt to increase the frame rate up to 100 Mfps and above. In order to suppress electro-magnetic noise at such high frequency, a digital-noiseless imaging transfer scheme has been developed utilizing solely sinusoidal driving voltages. This paper presents highly efficient-yet-accurate expressions to estimate attenuation as well as phase delay of driving voltages through RC networks of an ultra-high-speed image sensor. Elmore metric for a fundamental RC chain is employed as the first-order approximation. By application of dimensional analysis to SPICE data, we found a simple expression that significantly improves the accuracy of the approximation. Similarly, another simple closed-form model to estimate phase delay through fundamental RC networks is also obtained. Estimation error of both expressions is much less than previous works, only less 2% for most of the cases . The framework of this analysis can be extended to address similar issues of other VLSI structures.

Keywords: Dimensional Analysis, ISIS, Digital-noiseless, RC network, Attenuation, Phase Delay, Elmore model

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Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Kyu Park

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Sound absorbing material is used as automotive interior material. Sound absorption coefficient should be predicted to design it. But it is difficult to predict sound absorbing coefficient because it is comprised of several material layers. So, its targets are achieved through many experimental tunings. It causes a lot of cost and time. In this paper, we propose the process to estimate the sound absorption coefficient with multi-layer structure. In order to estimate the coefficient, physical properties of each material are used. These properties also use predicted values by Foam-X software using the sound absorption coefficient data measured by impedance tube. Since there are many physical properties and the measurement equipment is expensive, the values predicted by software are used. Through the measurement of the sound absorption coefficient of each material, its physical properties are calculated inversely. The properties of each material are used to calculate the sound absorption coefficient of the multi-layer material. Since the absorption coefficient of multi-layer can be calculated, optimization design is possible through simulation. Then, we will compare and analyze the calculated sound absorption coefficient with the data measured by scaled reverberation chamber and impedance tubes for a prototype. If this method is used when developing automotive interior materials with multi-layer structure, the development effort can be reduced because it can be optimized by simulation. So, cost and time can be saved.

Keywords: Optimization design, multi-layer nonwoven, sound absorption coefficient, scaled reverberation chamber, impedance tubes.

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Authors: Wen-Haw Chen, Sheng-Gwo Chen

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The distance between two objects is an important problem in CAGD, CAD and CG etc. It will be presented in this paper that a simple and quick method to estimate the distance between a point and a Bezier curve on a Bezier surface.

Keywords: Geodesic-like curve, distance, projection, Bezier.

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Authors: Jungho Choi, Youngwan Cho

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This paper presents an algorithm for the recognition and tracking of moving objects, 1/10 scale model car is used to verify performance of the algorithm. Presented algorithm for the recognition and tracking of moving objects in the paper is as follows. SURF algorithm is merged with Lucas-Kanade algorithm. SURF algorithm has strong performance on contrast, size, rotation changes and it recognizes objects but it is slow due to many computational complexities. Processing speed of Lucas-Kanade algorithm is fast but the recognition of objects is impossible. Its optical flow compares the previous and current frames so that can track the movement of a pixel. The fusion algorithm is created in order to solve problems which occurred using the Kalman Filter to estimate the position and the accumulated error compensation algorithm was implemented. Kalman filter is used to create presented algorithm to complement problems that is occurred when fusion two algorithms. Kalman filter is used to estimate next location, compensate for the accumulated error. The resolution of the camera (Vision Sensor) is fixed to be 640x480. To verify the performance of the fusion algorithm, test is compared to SURF algorithm under three situations, driving straight, curve, and recognizing cars behind the obstacles. Situation similar to the actual is possible using a model vehicle. Proposed fusion algorithm showed superior performance and accuracy than the existing object recognition and tracking algorithms. We will improve the performance of the algorithm, so that you can experiment with the images of the actual road environment.

Keywords: SURF, Optical Flow Lucas-Kanade, Kalman Filter, object recognition, object tracking.

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Authors: Triloksingh G. Arora, Mohan V. Aware, Dhananjay R. Tutakne

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Thyristor based firing angle controlled voltage regulators are extensively used for speed control of single phase induction motors. This leads to power saving but the applied voltage and current waveforms become non-sinusoidal. These non-sinusoidal waveforms increase voltage and thermal stresses which result into accelerated insulation aging, thus reducing the motor life. Life models that allow predicting the capability of insulation under such multi-stress situations tend to be very complex and somewhat impractical. This paper presents the fuzzy logic application to investigate the synergic effect of voltage and thermal stresses on intrinsic aging of induction motor insulation. A fuzzy expert system is developed to estimate the life of induction motor insulation under multiple stresses. Three insulation degradation parameters, viz. peak modification factor, wave shape modification factor and thermal loss are experimentally obtained for different firing angles. Fuzzy expert system consists of fuzzyfication of the insulation degradation parameters, algorithms based on inverse power law to estimate the life and defuzzyficaton process to output the life. An electro-thermal life model is developed from the results of fuzzy expert system. This fuzzy logic based electro-thermal life model can be used for life estimation of induction motors operated with non-sinusoidal voltage and current waveforms.

Keywords: Aging, Dielectric losses, Insulation and Life Estimation.

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Authors: E. Dabbour, S. M. Easa

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Most of the collision warning systems currently available in the automotive market are mainly designed to warn against imminent rear-end and lane-changing collisions. No collision warning system is commercially available to warn against imminent turning collisions at intersections, especially for left-turn collisions when a driver attempts to make a left-turn at either a signalized or non-signalized intersection, conflicting with the path of other approaching vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream. One of the major factors that lead to left-turn collisions is the human error and misjudgment of the driver of the turning vehicle when perceiving the speed and acceleration of other vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream; therefore, using a properly-designed collision warning system will likely reduce, or even eliminate, this type of collisions by reducing human error. This paper introduces perceptual framework for a proposed collision warning system that can detect imminent left-turn collisions at intersections. The system utilizes a commercially-available detection sensor (either a radar sensor or a laser detector) to detect approaching vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream and calculate their speeds and acceleration rates to estimate the time-tocollision and compare that time to the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection. When calculating the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection, consideration is given to the perception-reaction time of the driver of the turning vehicle, which is the time required by the driver to perceive the message given by the warning system and react to it by engaging the throttle. A regression model was developed to estimate perception-reaction time based on age and gender of the driver of the host vehicle. Desired acceleration rate selected by the driver of the turning vehicle, when making the left-turn movement, is another human factor that is considered by the system. Another regression model was developed to estimate the acceleration rate selected by the driver of the turning vehicle based on driver-s age and gender as well as on the location and speed of the nearest approaching vehicle along with the maximum acceleration rate provided by the mechanical characteristics of the turning vehicle. By comparing time-to-collision with the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection, the system displays a message to the driver of the turning vehicle when departure is safe. An application example is provided to illustrate the logic algorithm of the proposed system.

Keywords: Collision warning systems, intelligent transportationsystems, vehicle safety.

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Authors: Muhammad Rehan Khalid, Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui, Danish Ilyas

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This paper explores the implementation of adaptive coding and modulation schemes for Multiple-Input Multiple-Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) feedback systems. Adaptive coding and modulation enables robust and spectrally-efficient transmission over time-varying channels. The basic premise is to estimate the channel at the receiver and feed this estimate back to the transmitter, so that the transmission scheme can be adapted relative to the channel characteristics. Two types of codebook based channel feedback techniques are used in this work. The longterm and short-term CSI at the transmitter is used for efficient channel utilization. OFDM is a powerful technique employed in communication systems suffering from frequency selectivity. Combined with multiple antennas at the transmitter and receiver, OFDM proves to be robust against delay spread. Moreover, it leads to significant data rates with improved bit error performance over links having only a single antenna at both the transmitter and receiver. The coded modulation increases the effective transmit power relative to uncoded variablerate variable-power MQAM performance for MIMO-OFDM feedback system. Hence proposed arrangement becomes an attractive approach to achieve enhanced spectral efficiency and improved error rate performance for next generation high speed wireless communication systems.

Keywords: Adaptive Coded Modulation, MQAM, MIMO, OFDM, Codebooks, Feedback.

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Authors: Salaheddine Bendak, Sara S. Alnaqbi

Abstract:

The seat belt is a vital tool in improving traffic safety conditions and minimising injuries due to traffic accidents. Most developing countries are facing a big problems associated with the human and financial losses due to traffic accidents. One way to minimise these losses is the use of seat belts by passengers both in the front and rear seats of a vehicle; however, at the same time, close to nothing is known about the rates of seat belt utilisation among rear seat passengers in many developing countries. Therefore, there is a need to estimate these rates in order to know the extent of this problem and how people interact with traffic safety measures like seat belts and find demographic characteristics that contribute to wearing or non-wearing of seat belts with the aim of finding solutions to improve wearing rates. In this paper, an observational study was done to gather data on restraints use in motor vehicle rear seats in eight observational stations in a rapidly developing country, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and estimate a use rate for the whole country. Also, a questionnaire was used in order to study demographic characteristics affecting the wearing of seatbelts in rear seats. Results of the observational study showed that the overall wearing/usage rate was 12.3%, which is considered very low when compared to other countries. Survey results show that single, male, less educated passengers from Arab and South Asian backgrounds use seat belts reportedly less than others. Finally, solutions are put forward to improve this wearing rate based on the results of this study.

Keywords: Seat belts, traffic crashes, United Arab Emirates, rear seats.

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Authors: M. Khairulmazidah, A. B. Nurul Nadiah, A. R. Rumiza

Abstract:

Formulation of biological profile is one of the modern roles of forensic anthropologist. The present study was conducted to estimate height using foot and shoeprint length of Malaysian population. The present work can be very useful information in the process of identification of individual in forensic cases based on shoeprint evidence. It can help to narrow down suspects and ease the police investigation. Besides, stature is important parameters in determining the partial identify of unidentified and mutilated bodies. Thus, this study can help the problem encountered in cases of mass disaster, massacre, explosions and assault cases. This is because it is very hard to identify parts of bodies in these cases where people are dismembered and become unrecognizable. Samples in this research were collected from 200 Malaysian adults (100 males and 100 females) with age ranging from 20 to 45 years old. In this research, shoeprint length were measured based on the print of the shoes made from the flat shoes. Other information like gender, foot length and height of subject were also recorded. The data was analyzed using IBM® SPSS Statistics 19 software. Results indicated that, foot length has a strong correlation with stature than shoeprint length for both sides of the feet. However, in the unknown, where the gender was undetermined have shown a better correlation in foot length and shoeprint length parameter compared to males and females analyzed separately. In addition, prediction equations are developed to estimate the stature using linear regression analysis of foot length and shoeprint length. However, foot lengths give better prediction than shoeprint length. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology, foot length, shoeprints, stature estimation.

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Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

Abstract:

Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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Authors: B. Ghanbarian-Alavijeh, A.M. Liaghat, S. Sohrabi

Abstract:

Saturated hydraulic conductivity is one of the soil hydraulic properties which is widely used in environmental studies especially subsurface ground water. Since, its direct measurement is time consuming and therefore costly, indirect methods such as pedotransfer functions have been developed based on multiple linear regression equations and neural networks model in order to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from readily available soil properties e.g. sand, silt, and clay contents, bulk density, and organic matter. The objective of this study was to develop neural networks (NNs) model to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity from available parameters such as sand and clay contents, bulk density, van Genuchten retention model parameters (i.e. r θ , α , and n) as well as effective porosity. We used two methods to calculate effective porosity: : (1) eff s FC φ =θ -θ , and (2) inf φ =θ -θ eff s , in which s θ is saturated water content, FC θ is water content retained at -33 kPa matric potential, and inf θ is water content at the inflection point. Total of 311 soil samples from the UNSODA database was divided into three groups as 187 for the training, 62 for the validation (to avoid over training), and 62 for the test of NNs model. A commercial neural network toolbox of MATLAB software with a multi-layer perceptron model and back propagation algorithm were used for the training procedure. The statistical parameters such as correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were also used to evaluate the developed NNs model. The best number of neurons in the middle layer of NNs model for methods (1) and (2) were calculated 44 and 6, respectively. The R2 and MSE values of the test phase were determined for method (1), 0.94 and 0.0016, and for method (2), 0.98 and 0.00065, respectively, which shows that method (2) estimates saturated hydraulic conductivity better than method (1).

Keywords: Neural network, Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Soil physical properties.

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Authors: Jiming Yang

Abstract:

An upwind difference approximation is used for a singularly perturbed problem in material science. Based on the discrete Green-s function theory, the error estimate in maximum norm is achieved, which is first-order uniformly convergent with respect to the perturbation parameter. The numerical experimental result is verified the valid of the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Singularly perturbed, upwind difference, uniform convergence.

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Authors: Yen San Yong, Hock Woon Hon

Abstract:

An algorithm for estimating the disparity of objects of interest is proposed. This algorithm uses image shifting and overlapping area to estimate the disparity value; thereby depth of the objects of interest can be obtained. The algorithm is able to perform at different levels of accuracy. However, as the accuracy increases the processing speed decreases. The algorithm is tested with static stereo images and sequence of stereo images. The experimental results are presented in this paper.

Keywords: stereo vision, binocular parallax

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Authors: James E. Ponder

Abstract:

The requirement for consistency in physics can sometimes offer a common ground between disciplines such that their fundamental equations share a common parameter set and mathematical method for equation extraction. The parameter set shared by Relativity and Quantum Wave Mechanics enables an analysis which will be seen to be very straightforward, primarily classical in nature using linear algebra concepts, yet deriving a theoretical estimate of the value of the Gravitational Constant along with dependencies never before known.

Keywords: Gravitational Constant, Physical Consistency, Quantum Mechanics, Relativity.

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Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

Abstract:

The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family of bivariate distributions, multi-source ordering, materials demand quantity, recency, ordering time.

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