Search results for: Historical%20data

Authors: Ali Aqa Mohammad Jawad

Abstract:

Taking a relational approach, this paper analyzes the causal mechanisms associated with successful mobilization and rapid demobilization of the Enlightening Movement in post-2001 Afghanistan. The movement emerged after the state-owned Da Afghan Bereshna Sherkat (DABS) decided to divert the route for the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TUTAP) electricity project. The grid was initially planned to go through the Hazara-inhabited province of Bamiyan, according to Afghanistan’s Power Sector Master Plan. The reroute served as an aide-mémoire of historical subordination to other ethno-religious groups for the Hazara community. It was also perceived as deprivation from post-2001 development projects, financed by international aid. This torched the accumulated grievances, which then gave birth to the Enlightening Movement. The movement had a successful mobilization. However, it demobilized after losing much of its mobilizing capabilities through an amalgamation of external and internal relational factors. The successful mobilization yet rapid demobilization constitutes the puzzle of this paper. From the theoretical perspective, this paper is significant as it establishes the applicability of contentious politics theory to protest mobilizations that occurred in Afghanistan, a context-specific, characterized by ethnic politics. Both primary and secondary data are utilized to address the puzzle. As for the primary resources, media coverage, interviews, reports, public media statements of the movement, involved in contentious performances, and data from Social Networking Services (SNS) are used. The covered period is from 2001-2018. As for the secondary resources, published academic articles and books are used to give a historical account of contentious politics. For data analysis, a qualitative comparative historical method is utilized to uncover the causal mechanisms associated with successful mobilization and rapid demobilization of the Movement. In this pursuit, both mobilization and demobilization are considered as larger political processes that could be decomposed to constituent mechanisms. Enlightening Movement’s framing and campaigns are first studied to uncover the associated mechanisms. Then, to avoid introducing some ad hoc mechanisms, the recurrence of mechanisms is checked against another case. Mechanisms qualify as robust if they are “recurrent” in different episodes of contention. Checking the recurrence of causal mechanisms is vital as past contentious events tend to reinforce future events. The findings of this paper suggest that the public sphere in Afghanistan is drastically different from Western democracies known as the birthplace of social movements. In Western democracies, when institutional politics did not respond, movement organizers occupied the public sphere, undermining the legitimacy of the government. In Afghanistan, the public sphere is ethicized. Considering the inter- and intra-relational dynamics of ethnic groups in Afghanistan, the movement reduced to an erosive inter- and intra-ethnic conflict. This undermined the cohesiveness of the movement, which then kicked-off its demobilization process.

Keywords: Enlightening movement, contentious politics, mobilization, demobilization.

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Authors: Orly Redlich

Abstract:

In the age of social distance, which has been added to an individual and competitive worldview, it has become important to find a way to promote closeness and personal touch. The sense of social belonging and the existence of positive interaction with others have recently become a considerable necessity. Therefore, this theoretical paper will review one of the familiar and common concepts among different cultures around the world – birthday. This paper has a theoretical contribution that deepens the understanding of the birthday concept. Birthday rituals are historical and universal events, which noted since the prehistoric eras. In ancient history, birthday rituals were solely reserved for kings and nobility members, but over the years, birthday celebrations have evolved into a worldwide tradition. Some of the familiar birthday customs and symbols are currently common among most cultures, while some cultures have adopted for themselves unique birthday customs, which characterized their values and traditions. The birthday concept has a unique significance in Judaism as well, historically, religiously, and socially: It is considered as a lucky day and a private holiday for the celebrant. Therefore, the present paper reviews diverse birthday customs around the world in different cultures, including Judaism, and marks important birthdays throughout history. The paper also describes how the concept of birthday appears over the years in songs, novels, and art, and presents quotes from distinguished sages. The theoretical review suggests that birthday has a special meaning as a time-mark in the cycle of life, and as a socialization means in human development. Moreover, the birthday serves as a symbol of belonging and group cohesiveness, a day in which the celebrant's sense of belonging and sense of importance are strengthened and nurtured. Thus, the reappearance of these elements in a family or group interaction during the birthday ceremony allows the celebrant to absorb positive impressions about himself. In view of the extensive theoretical review, it seems that the unique importance of birthdays can serve as the foundation for intervention programs that may affect the participants’ sense of belonging and empowerment. In the group aspect, perhaps it can also yield therapeutic factors within a group. Concrete recommendations are presented at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Birthday, universal events, rituals, positive interaction, group cohesiveness.

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Authors: Khojesta Kawish, Tetsuya Ando, Sayed Abdul Basir Samimi

Abstract:

Bagh-e Dasht area is situated in the northern part of Herat, an old city in western Afghanistan located on the Silk Road which has received a strong influence from Persian culture. Initially, the Bagh-e Dasht area was developed for gardens and palaces near Joy-e Injil canal during the Timurid Empire in the 15^th century. It is assumed Bagh-e Dasht became a settlement in the 16^th century during the Safavid Empire. The oldest area is the southern part around the canal bank which is characterized by Dalans, sun-dried brick arcades above which houses are often constructed. Traditional houses in this area are built with domical vault roofs constructed with sun-dried bricks. Bagh-e Dasht is one of the best-preserved settlements of traditional houses in Herat. This study examines the transformation of the Bagh-e Dasht area with a focus on Dalans, where traditional houses with domical vault roofs have been well-preserved until today. The aim of the study is to examine the extent of physical changes to the area as well as changes to houses and the community. This research paper contains original results which have previously not been published in architectural history. The roof types of houses in the area are investigated through examining high resolution satellite images. The boundary of each building and space is determined by both a field survey and aerial photographs of the study area. A comprehensive field survey was then conducted to examine each space and building in the area. In addition, a questionnaire was distributed to the residents of the Dalan houses and interviews were conducted with the Wakil (Chief) of the area, a local historian, residents and traditional builders. The study finds that the oldest part of Bagh-e Dasht area, the south, contains both Dalans and domical vault roof houses. The next oldest part, which is the north, only has domical vault roof houses. The rest of the area only has houses with modernized flat roofs. This observation provides an insight into the process of historical development in the Bagh-e Dasht area.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Bagh-e Dasht, Dalan, Domical vault, Herat, over path house, traditional house.

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Authors: Somayeh Alizadeh, Mehdi Ghazanfari, Mohammad Fathian

Abstract:

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have successfully been applied in numerous domains to show relations between essential components. In some FCM, there are more nodes, which related to each other and more nodes means more complex in system behaviors and analysis. In this paper, a novel learning method used to construct FCMs based on historical data and by using data mining and DEMATEL method, a new method defined to reduce nodes number. This method cluster nodes in FCM based on their cause and effect behaviors.

Keywords: Clustering, Data Mining, Fuzzy Cognitive Map(FCM), Learning.

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Authors: Kadyraliyeva Altynay Mustafayevna, Zholdubayeva Azhar Kuanyshbekovna, Alimzhanova Aliya Sharabekovna, Zhiyenbekova Ainur Abdurakhmanovna, Asanov Seylbek Sadikovich

Abstract:

The article analyses historical aspects of the formation of the Kazakh nation in the conditions of the multicultural society. The authors underline cultural integration as a significant stage of the cultural advancement of the Kazakh nation. The transition to the modern-style houses, the adoption and development of the secular education gave a rise to the development of the society and culture on the whole.

Keywords: Assimilation, culture genesis, cultural integration, multiculturalism

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Authors: Yeraly Akymbek, Beibit Baibugunov

Abstract:

In the article the remains of the base of the minaret, found in 2009 at the medieval fortress shakhristan Aktobe, which is located along the courses of the rivers Balta and Aksu. The minaret, which consists of two parts: the stylobate in the pit and base part refers to the XI-XII centuries. The preserved height of the building is 3.6 meters. Volume stylobat quadrangular minaret, the corners of which are aimed at the four corners of the world amounts to 8,65 x8, 5 m, height – 2.6 m. Diameter octagonal upper cap of 7.85 m and a height of preserved – 1 m. This minaret is of particular importance among the historical and architectural monuments of Kazakhstan, as it is so far the only minaret belonging to Karakhanid epoch in which Islam was the state religion.

Keywords: Aktobe, medieval, minaret, stylobate.

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Authors: Zh. Tolen, A. Kadyralyeva, A. Alimzhanova, G. Aldambergenova, K. Arymbayeva, A. Zhiyenbekova

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This paper describes the historical development of interethnic concord in the Republic of Kazakhstan, and emphasizes the role of tolerance mentality of the Kazakh people in ethno-political policy of the country. Moreover, pointing out interethnic concord as a powerful stabilizing factor, it analyses the specifics of interethnic policy in multinational Kazakh society. It summarizes that the culture of interethnic concord can be a model of ethno- political policy of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Interethnic relations, the culture of interethnic concord, multiculturalism, tolerance, stability in society.

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Authors: Omneya Messallam, Sara S. Fouad

Abstract:

The Modernist Movement initially flourished in France, Holland, Germany and the Soviet Union. Many architects and designers were inspired and followed its principles. Two of its most important architects (Gerrit Rietveld and Ludwig Mies van de Rohe) were introduced in this paper. Each did not follow the other’s principles and had their own particular rules; however, they shared the same features of the Modernist International Style, such as Anti-historicism, Abstraction, Technology, Function and Internationalism/ Universality. Key Modernist principles translated into high expectations, which sometimes did not meet the inhabitants’ aspirations of living comfortably; consequently, leading to a conflict and misunderstanding between the designer and their clients’ needs. Therefore, historical case studies (the Schroder and the Farnsworth houses) involving two Modernist pioneer architects have been chosen. This paper is an attempt to explore some of the influential factors affecting buildings design such as: needs, gender, and question concerning commonalities between both designers and their clients. The three aspects and two designers explored here have been chosen because they have been influenced the researchers to understand the impact of those factors on the design process, building’s performance, and the dweller’s satisfaction. This is a descriptive/ analytical research based on two historical comparative case studies that involve several steps such as: key evaluation questions (KEQs), observations, document analysis, etc. The methodology is based on data collation and finding validations. The research aims to state a manifest to regulate the relation between architects and their clients to reach the optimum building performance and functional interior design that suits their clients’ needs, reflects the architects’ character, and the school they belong to. At the end, through the investigation in this paper, the different needs between both the designers and the clients have been seen not only in the building itself but also it could convert the inhabitant’s life in various ways. Moreover, a successful relationship between the architect and their clients could play a significant role in the success of projects. In contrast, not every good design or celebrated building could end up with a successful relationship between the designer and their client or full-fill the inhabitant’s aspirations.

Keywords: Architect’s character, Building’s performance, commonalities, client’s character, gender, modernist movement, needs.

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Authors: T. Ninouh, A. Rouili

Abstract:

The Romain paths or roads offer a very interesting archaeological material, because they allow us to understand the history of human settlement and are also factors that increase territorial identity. Roman roads are one of the hallmarks of the Roman empire, which extends to North Africa. The objective of this investigation is to attract the attention of researchers of the importance of Roman roads and paths, which are found in Algeria, according to the quality of the materials and techniques used in this period our history, and to encourage other decision makers to protect and enhance these routes because the current urbanization, intensive agricultural practices, or simply forgotten, decreases the sustainability of this important historical heritage.

Keywords: Romain paths, material Materials, Property, Valuation.

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Authors: O. Vlcek

Abstract:

The paper deals with current issues in research of advanced methods to increase reliability of traditional timber structural elements. It analyses the issue of strengthening of bent timber beams, such as ceiling beams in old (historical) buildings with additional concrete slab in combination with externally bonded fibre - reinforced polymer. The paper describes experimental testing of composite timber-concrete beam with FRP reinforcement and compares results with FEM analysis.

Keywords: Timber-concrete composite, strengthening, fibre-reinforced polymer, experimental analysis.

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Authors: Ali Salehipour

Abstract:

After presenting the theory of calendar function of Iran-s cross-vaults especially “Niasar" cross-vault in recent years, there has been lots of doubts and uncertainty about this theory by astrologists and archaeologists. According to this theory “Niasar cross-vault and other cross-vaults of Iran has calendar function and are constructed in a way that sunrise and sunset can be seen from one of its openings in the beginning and middle of each season of year". But, mentioning historical documentaries we conclude here that the theory of calendar function of Iran-s cross-vaults does not have any strong basis and individual cross-vaults had only religious function in Iran.

Keywords: cross-vault, fire temple, Calendar function, Sassanid period

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Authors: Donatella R. Fiorino, Marzia Loddo

Abstract:

The practice of freeing monuments from subsequent additions crosses the entire history of conservation and it is traditionally connected to the aim of valorisation, both for cultural and educational purpose and recently even for touristic exploitation. Defence heritage has been widely interested by these cultural and technical moods from philological restoration to critic innovations. A renovated critical analysis of Italian episodes and in particular the Sardinian case of the area of San Pancrazio in Cagliari, constitute an important lesson about the limits of this practice and the uncertainty in terms of results, towards the definition of a sustainable good practice in the restoration of military architectures.

Keywords: Defensive architecture, Liberation, Valorisation for tourism, Historical restoration.

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Authors: K. Tadjer, M. Bensaibi, A. Chaid

Abstract:

The seismic vulnerability of an urban area is of a great deal for local authorities especially those facing earthquakes. So, it is important to have an efficient tool to assess the vulnerability of existing buildings. The use of the VIP (Vulnerability Index Program) and the GIS (Geographic Information System) let us to identify the most vulnerable districts of an urban area. The use of the vulnerability index method lets us to assess the vulnerability of the center town of Blida (Algeria) which is a historical town and which has grown enormously during the last decades. In this method, three levels of vulnerability are defined. The GIS has been used to build a data base in order to perform different thematic analyses. These analyses show the seismic vulnerability of Blida.

Keywords: Blida, Earthquake, GIS, Seismic vulnerability, Urban area.

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Authors: A. Papalou, K. Vozikis

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is the analysis and preservation of lime kilns, focusing on the structure, construction, and functionality of vertical shaft lime kilns of the Cap Corse in Corsica. Plans and sections of two lime kilns are presented in detail, providing an overall picture of this specific industrial heritage. The potential damage areas are identified performing structural analysis of a lime kiln using the finite element method. A restoration and strengthening technique that satisfies the directions of the Charter of Venice is presented using post-tensioning tendons. Recommendations are given to preserve and promote these important historical structures integrating them into the custom footpath.

Keywords: industrial heritage, lime kilns, post-tensioning, preservation

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Authors: Jaroslav Burian, Kateřina Sorbiová, Pavel Tuček, Michaela Tučková

Abstract:

The article describes problems of city centers with regard to possibilities of their delimitation in a GIS environment. First the definitions and delimitations of a city centre which are in use are mentioned, furthermore a chosen case study (the historical centre of Olomouc city in the Czech Republic) is employed to describe the methods of delimitation in use. In addition to describing the current state, the article also deals with possibilities of delimitation of a city centre in GIS environment by means of several chosen approaches. The authors describe, compare and discuss the chosen methods and assess the achieved results and also applicability of the designed methods for other cities.

Keywords: analysis, city center, GIS, spatial structures

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Authors: Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Tulay Canitez

Abstract:

The traditional Turkish houses becoming unusable are a result of the deterioration of the balanced interaction between users and house (human and house) continuing during the history. Especially depending upon the change in social structure, the houses becoming neglected do not meet the desires of the users and do not have the meaning but the shelter are becoming unusable and are being destroyed. A conservation policy should be developed and renovations should be made in order to pass the traditional houses carrying the quality of a cultural and historical document presenting the social structure, the lifestyle and the traditions of its own age to the next generations and to keep them alive.

Keywords: House, social structural change, social structural, traditional Turkish houses.

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Authors: Gurinder Singh, Kulbir Singh

Abstract:

Digital multimedia contents such as image, video, and audio can be tampered easily due to the availability of powerful editing softwares. Multimedia forensics is devoted to analyze these contents by using various digital forensic techniques in order to validate their authenticity. Digital image forensics is dedicated to investigate the reliability of digital images by analyzing the integrity of data and by reconstructing the historical information of an image related to its acquisition phase. In this paper, a survey is carried out on the forgery detection by considering the most recent and promising digital image forensic techniques.

Keywords: Computer forensics, multimedia forensics, image ballistics, camera source identification, forgery detection.

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Authors: Somayeh Alizadeh, Mehdi Ghazanfari, Mostafa Jafari, Salman Hooshmand

Abstract:

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) is a causal graph, which shows the relations between essential components in complex systems. Experts who are familiar with the system components and their relations can generate a related FCM. There is a big gap when human experts cannot produce FCM or even there is no expert to produce the related FCM. Therefore, a new mechanism must be used to bridge this gap. In this paper, a novel learning method is proposed to construct causal graph based on historical data and by using metaheuristic such Tabu Search (TS). The efficiency of the proposed method is shown via comparison of its results of some numerical examples with those of some other methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), Learning, Meta heuristic, Genetic Algorithm, Tabu search.

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Authors: Milton Montejano Castillo, Tarsicio Pastrana Salcedo

Abstract:

Based on the hypothesis that disaster risk is constructed socially and historically, this article shows the importance of keeping alive the historical memory of disaster by means of architectural and urban heritage conservation. This is illustrated with three examples of Latin American World Heritage cities, where disasters like floods and earthquakes have shaped urban form. Therefore, the study of urban form or "Urban Morphology" is proposed as a tool to understand and analyze urban transformations with the documentation of the occurrence of disasters. Lessons learned from such cities may be useful to reduce disasters risk in contemporary built environments.

Keywords: Conservation, disaster risk reduction, urban morphology, world heritage.

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Authors: James D. Clark, Bernard H. Stark

Abstract:

The paper presents a modelling methodology for small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.

Keywords: Energy Analysis, Forecasting, Distributed powergeneration.

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Authors: I. R. Kanu, T. J. Aspray, A. J. Adeloye

Abstract:

As a result of the ambiguity and complexity surrounding anaerobic digester foaming, efforts have been made by various researchers to understand the process of anaerobic digester foaming so as to proffer a solution that can be universally applied rather than site specific. All attempts ranging from experimental analysis to comparative review of other process has not fully explained the conditions and process of foaming in anaerobic digester. Studying the current available knowledge on foam formation and relating it to anaerobic digester process and operating condition, this piece of work presents a succinct and enhanced understanding of foaming in anaerobic digesters as well as introducing a simple method to identify the onset of anaerobic digester foaming based on analysis of historical data from a field scale system.

Keywords: Anaerobic digester, foam, biogas, surfactants, wastewater sludge.

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Authors: B.K. Kalshabayeva, A.S. Seisenbayeva

Abstract:

The article is devoted to Kazakh repatriates and their migration to Kazakhstan as historical homeland, and also addresses the problem of migrants- adaptation in the republic, particularly in Almaty oblast (region). The authors used up-to-date statictics and materials of the Department of Migration Committee to analyze the newcomers- number and features of the repatriate-s location in this oblast. Having studied this region they were able to identify the main reasons why Kazakh Diaspora in Central Asia, Iran, Avganistana and Turkey is eager to come back to their historic homeland along with repatriates adaptation to the republic.

Keywords: Kazakh diaspora, repatriates, migration, adaptation, Central Asia, Iran, Avganistan, Migration Committee.

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Authors: S. Ait Ali Yahia

Abstract:

One of the main features of the Maghreb is its linguistic richness. The multilingualism is a fact which always marked the Maghreb since the beginning of the history up to know. Since the arrival of the Phoenicians, followed by the Carthaginians, Romans, and Arabs, etc, there was a social group in the Maghreb which controlled two kinds of idioms. The libyc one remained, despite everything, the local language used by the major part of the population. This language had a support of written transmission attested by many inscriptions. Among all the forms of the Maghreb writing, this alphabet, however, continues to cause a certain number of questions about the origin and the date of its appearance. The archaeological, linguistic and historical data remain insufficient to answer these questions. This did not prevent the researchers from giving an opinion. In order to answer these questions we will expose here the various assumptions adopted by various authors who are founded on more or less explicit arguments. We will also speak about the various forms taken by the libyc writing during antiquity.

Keywords: The alphabet libyc, Eastern libyc, Western libyc.

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Authors: Y.S. Lea

Abstract:

This paper investigates the agricultural rituals in relation to the historical continuity of cultural ideology concerning the praxis of cultural sustenance of the indigenous Mayas. The praxis is delineated in two dimensions: 1) The ceremonial and quotidian rituals of the rural Q’eqchi’ Mayas in Lanquin, Guatemala; 2) The indigenous Maya resistance of 2014 against the legislation of the 'Law for the Protection of New Plant Varieties,' commonly known as 'the Monsanto Law' in Guatemala. Through the intersection of ideology in practice, the praxis of cultural sustenance is construed.

Keywords: Q'eqchi' Mayas, San Agustin Lanquin, Alta Verapaz, Guatemala, Maya animism, Q’eqchi' deities, Tzuultaq'as.

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Authors: O. Vlcek

Abstract:

The paper deals with current issues in research of advanced methods to increase reliability of traditional timber structural elements. It analyses the issue of strengthening of bent timber beams, such as ceiling beams in old (historical) buildings with additional concrete slab in combination with externally bonded fiber - reinforced polymer. The study evaluates deflection of a selected group of timber beams with concrete slab and additional CFRP reinforcement using different calculating methods and observes differences in results from different calculating methods. An elastic (EN 1995) calculation method and evaluation with FEM analysis software were used.

Keywords: Timber-concrete composite, strengthening, fibre-reinforced polymer, theoretical analysis.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky

Abstract:

Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 ^oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m² on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m². In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 ^oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 ^oC to 4.8 ^oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m² causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 ^oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 ^oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.

Keywords: GHG radiative forces, GHG air temperature, GHG thermodynamics, GHG historical, GHG experimental, GHG radiative force on ice, GHG radiative force on plants, GHG radiative force in air.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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Authors: Nikou Javadi, Uğur Dağlı

Abstract:

The importance of culture and tourism in the attractiveness and competitiveness of the countries is central, and many regions are evidencing their cultural assets, tangible and intangible, as a means to create comparative advantages in tourism and produce a distinctive place in response to the pressures of globalization. Culture and tourism are interlinked because of their obvious combination and growth potential. Cultural tourism is a crucial global tourism market with fast growing. Regions can develop significant relations between culture and tourism to increase their attractiveness as places to visit, live and invest, increasing their competitiveness. Accordingly, having new and creative approach to historical areas as cultural value-based destinations can improve their conditions to promote tourism. Furthermore, in 21st century, media become the most important factor affecting the development of urban cities, including public places. As a result of the digital revolution, re-imaging and re-linkage public places by media are essential to create more interactions between public spaces and users, interaction media display, and urban screens, one of the most important defined media. This interaction can transform the urban space from being neglected to be more interactive space with users, especially the pedestrians. The paper focuses on The Walled City of Famagusta. As many other historic quarters elsewhere in the world, is in a process, of decay and deterioration, and its functionally distinctive areas are severely threatened by physical, functional, locational, and image obsolescence at varying degrees. So the focus on the future development of this area through tourism promotion can be an appropriate decision for the monument enhancement of the spatial quality in Walled City of Famagusta. In this paper, it is aimed to identify the effects of these new digital factors to transform public spaces especially in historic urban areas to promote creative tourism. Accordingly, two different analysis methods are used as well as a theoretical review. The first is case study on site and the second is Close ended questionnaire, test many concepts raised in this paper. The physical analysis on site carried out in order to evaluate the walled city restoration for touristic purpose. Besides, theoretical review is done in order to provide background to the subject and cleared Factors to attract tourists.

Keywords: Historical areas, Media Facade, Sustainable tourism, Walled city of Famagusta.

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