Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling
Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram
Abstract:
Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.
Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1098944
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3381References:
[1] J. J. McCarthy, Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[2] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul et al., “Numerical modelling for the extreme flood events in the Fitzroy basin, Queensland, Australia,” International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 346-350, June 2013.
[3] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F. Akram, "Watershed delineation and cross-section extraction from DEM for flood modelling," In 19th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 8-11 December 2014.
[4] IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; The Fourth Assessment Report of the Climate Change, 2007.
[5] B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. McMahon, “Runoff variability in Australia. Causes and environmental consequences,” Perth, Australia, 1991, pp. 504-511.
[6] Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Annual Sea Level Data Summary Report, July 2010-June 2011, The Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project, National Tidal Centre (Internet), http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2011.pdf (accessed 28.01.2015).
[7] N. Nicholls, and D. Collins, “Observed climate change in Australia over the past century,” Energy and Environment, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-12, 2006.
[8] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F. Akram, "A review of downscaling and 1-D/2-D hydraulic model for flood studies," In Proceedings of the Central Region Engineering Conference, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia, 10-11 August 2012, pp. 80-85.
[9] Australian Federal Government’s Climate Commission, 2011. The Critical Decade (Internet). http://climatecommission.files.wordpress. com/2013/09/the-critical-decade-2013_website.pdf (accessed 28.01.2015).
[10] T. A. McMahon, B. L. Finlayson, A. T. Haines, and R. Srikanthan, Global runoff: continental comparisons of annual flows and peak discharges: Catena Verlag, 1992.
[11] Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project (Internet). www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/ abslmp/abslmp.shtml (accessed 28.01.2015).
[12] J. Church, N. White, J. Hunter, K. McInnes, P. Cowell, and S. O’Farrell, Sea-level rise: CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, 2008.
[13] J. A. Church, J. R. Hunter, K. L. McInnes, and N. J. White, Sea-level rise around the Australian coastline and the changing frequency of extreme sea-level events, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 55, no. 4, pp. 253-260, 2006.
[14] A. Parker, M. Saad Saleem, and M. Lawson, “Sea-level trend analysis for coastal management,” Ocean & Coastal Management, vol. 73, pp. 63-81, 2013.
[15] T. D. Keenan, and H. A. Cleugh, Climate science update: a report to the 2011 Garnaut review, Technical Report No. 036, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011.
[16] J. Callaghan, and S. Power, “Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 37, no. 3-4, pp. 647-662, 2011/08/01, 2011.
[17] K. Walsh, K.-C. Nguyen, and J. McGregor, “Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 47-56, 2004.
[18] L. Leslie, D. Karoly, M. Leplastrier et al., “Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 97, no. 1-4, pp. 171-180, 2007.
[19] D. Abbs, S. Aryal, E. Campbell, J. McGregor, K. Nguyen, M. Palmer, T. Rafter, I. Watterson, and B. Bates, Projections of extreme rainfall and cyclones, A report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia, 2006.
[20] J. Sammut, and W. D. Erskine, “Age and hydrological significance of lichen limits on sandstone river channels near Sydney, Australia,” Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, vol. 95, no. 3, pp. 227-239, 2013.
[21] D. Patel, and P. Srivastava, "Application of Geo-Spatial Technique for Flood Inundation Mapping of Low Lying Areas," Remote Sensing Applications in Environmental Research, Society of Earth Scientists Series P. K. Srivastava, S. Mukherjee, M. Gupta et al., eds., pp. 113-130: Springer International Publishing, 2014.
[22] L. S. Kuchment, and A. N. Gelfan, “Assessment of extreme flood characteristics based on a dynamic-stochastic model of runoff generation and the probable maximum discharge,” Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 115-127, 2011.
[23] W. Yigzaw, F. Hossain, and A. Kalyanapu, “Comparison of PMPDriven Probable Maximum Floods with Flood Magnitudes due to Increasingly Urbanized Catchment: The Case of American River Watershed,” Earth Interactions, vol. 17, no. 8, pp. 1-15, 2013.
[24] D. B. Wright, J. A. Smith, G. Villarini et al., “Estimating the frequency of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm transposition,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 488, no. 0, pp. 150-165, 2013.
[25] M. C. Casas, R. Rodríguez, M. Prohom et al., “Estimation of the probable maximum precipitation in Barcelona (Spain),” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 31, no. 9, pp. 1322-1327, 2011.
[26] D. Patel, and P. Srivastava, “Flood Hazards Mitigation Analysis Using Remote Sensing and GIS: Correspondence with Town Planning Scheme,” Water Resources Management, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 2353-2368, 2013.
[27] J. Yazdi, and S. A. A. Salehi Neyshabouri, “Optimal design of floodcontrol multi-reservoir system on a watershed scale,” Natural Hazards, vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 629-646, 2012.
[28] Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Climate Change in the Netherlands (Internet). http://www.knmi.nl/bibliotheek/ klimaatbrochures/supplementsto06scenarios.pdf (accessed 28.01.2015).
[29] N. W. Arnell, and S. N. Gosling, “The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale,” Journal of Hydrology, 2013.
[30] A. Bakker, B. Van den Hurk, J. Bessembinder et al., “Standard years for large-scale hydrological scenario simulations,” Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 797-803, 2011.
[31] J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs et al., “IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, USA, Cambridge University Press, vol. 881, pp. 9, 2001.
[32] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F. Akram, "Rainfall, temperature and evaporation trends in the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, Australia," In 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Sydney, Australia, 19-22 November 2012.
[33] M. S. I. I. Amir, M. M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, R. H. Sharma, and F. Akram, “Automatic Multi-Objective Calibration of a Rainfall Runoff Model for the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, Australia,” International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 311-315, June 2013.
[34] Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, Technical Report 2007 (Internet). http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/ Marine--Atmospheric-Research/Climate-Change-Technical-Report- 2007.aspx (accessed 28.01.2015)."
[35] X. Zhou, J. Zheng, D.-J. Doong et al., “Sea level rise along the East Asia and Chinese coasts and its role on the morphodynamic response of the Yangtze River Estuary,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 71, pp. 40-50, 10/1/, 2013.
[36] HYMOS 4, User Manual.
[37] IEAust, Australian Rainfall and Runoff - A Guide to flood estimation, Engineers Australia, 1997.
[38] R. Alam, Z. H. Khan, M. S. I. I. Amir, and S. Akhter, "Model Study for prediction of thermal discharge diffusion for proposed 360 MW combined cycle power plant at Haripur," In 2nd International Conference on Water and Flood Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 15-17 March 2009.