Search results for: Error analysis.

Authors: Y. S. Liew, K. A. Puteh Ariffin, M. A. Mohd Nor

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One of the Best Management Practices (BMPs) promoted in Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA) published by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) in 2001 is through the construction of wet ponds in new development projects for water quantity and quality control. Therefore, this paper aims to demonstrate a case study on evaluation of a constructed mini wet pond located at Sekolah Rendah Kebangsaan Seksyen 2, Puchong, Selangor, Malaysia in both stormwater quantity and quality aspect particularly to reduce the peak discharge by temporary storing and gradual release of stormwater runoff from an outlet structure or other release mechanism. The evaluation technique will be using InfoWorks Collection System (CS) as the numerical modeling approach for water quantity aspect. Statistical test by comparing the correlation coefficient (R²), mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model in simulating the peak discharge changes. Results demonstrated that there will be a reduction in peak flow at 11 % to 15% and time to peak flow is slower by 5 minutes through a wet pond. For water quality aspect, a survey on biological indicator of water quality carried out depicts that the pond is within the range of rather clean to clean water with the score of 5.3. This study indicates that a constructed wet pond with wetland facilities is able to help in managing water quantity and stormwater generated pollution at source, towards achieving ecologically sustainable development in urban areas.

Keywords: Wet pond, Retention Facilities, Best Management Practices (BMP), Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA).

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Authors: S. A. Ahmadi, S. Sharif, R. Jamshidi

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In this article, the flow behavior around a NACA 0012 airfoil which is oscillating with different Reynolds numbers and in various amplitudes has been investigated numerically. Numerical simulations have been performed with ANSYS software. First, the 2- D geometry has been studied in different Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with various numerical methods in its static condition. This analysis was to choose the best turbulent model and comparing the grids to have the optimum one for dynamic simulations. Because the analysis was to study the blades of wind turbines, the Reynolds numbers were not arbitrary. They were in the range of 9.71e5 to 22.65e5. The angle of attack was in the range of -41.81° to 41.81°. By choosing the forward wind speed as the independent parameter, the others like Reynolds and the amplitude of the oscillation would be known automatically. The results show that the SST turbulent model is the best choice that leads the least numerical error with respect the experimental ones. Also, a dynamic stall phenomenon is more probable at lower wind speeds in which the lift force is less.

Keywords: Dynamic stall, Numerical simulation, Wind turbine, Turbulent Model

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Authors: Nora Taghavi, Ali Sadr

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System identification is the process of creating models of dynamic process from input- output signals. The aim of system identification can be identified as “ to find a model with adjustable parameters and then to adjust them so that the predicted output matches the measured output". This paper presents a method of modeling and simulating with system identification to achieve the maximum fitness for transformation function. First by using optimized KLM equivalent circuit for PVDF piezoelectric transducer and assuming different inputs including: sinuside, step and sum of sinusides, get the outputs, then by using system identification toolbox in MATLAB, we estimate the transformation function from inputs and outputs resulted in last program. Then compare the fitness of transformation function resulted from using ARX,OE(Output- Error) and BJ(Box-Jenkins) models in system identification toolbox and primary transformation function form KLM equivalent circuit.

Keywords: PVDF modeling, ARX, BJ(Box-Jenkins), OE(Output-Error), System Identification.

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai, Wiriya Lueangaram

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A numerical analysis of wave and hydrodynamic models is used to investigate the influence of WAve and Storm Surge (WASS) in the regional and coastal zones. The numerical analyzed system consists of the WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) which used to solve the energy balance and primitive equations respectively. The results of both models presented the incorporated surface wave in the regional zone affected the coastal storm surge zone. Specifically, the results indicated that the WASS generally under the approximation is not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment. The wave–induced surface stress affected the storm surge can significantly improve storm surge prediction. Finally, the calibration of wave module according to the minimum error of the significant wave height (Hs) is not necessarily result in the optimum wave module in the WASS analyzed system for the WASS prediction.

Keywords: energy balance equation, numerical analysis, primitiveequation, storm surge, wave.

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Authors: Naji Ali Albakay, Abdulrahman Alothaim, Isa Barshushi

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The most common quadrature amplitude modulator (QAM) applies two Mach-Zehnder Modulators (MZM) and one phase shifter to generate high order modulation format. The bias of MZM changes over time due to temperature, vibration, and aging factors. The change in the biasing causes distortion to the generated QAM signal which leads to deterioration of bit error rate (BER) performance. Therefore, it is critical to be able to lock MZM’s Q point to the required operating point for good performance. We propose a technique for automatic bias control (ABC) of QAM transmitter using BER measurements and gradient descent optimization algorithm. The proposed technique is attractive because it uses the pertinent metric, BER, which compensates for bias drifting independently from other system variations such as laser source output power. The proposed scheme performance and its operating principles are simulated using OptiSystem simulation software for 4-QAM and 16-QAM transmitters.

Keywords: Automatic bias control, optical fiber communication, optical modulation, optical devices.

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Authors: Saeed Mian Qaisar, Laurent Fesquet, Marc Renaudin

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Mostly the real life signals are time varying in nature. For proper characterization of such signals, time-frequency representation is required. The STFT (short-time Fourier transform) is a classical tool used for this purpose. The limitation of the STFT is its fixed time-frequency resolution. Thus, an enhanced version of the STFT, which is based on the cross-level sampling, is devised. It can adapt the sampling frequency and the window function length by following the input signal local variations. Therefore, it provides an adaptive resolution time-frequency representation of the input. The computational complexity of the proposed STFT is deduced and compared to the classical one. The results show a significant gain of the computational efficiency and hence of the processing power. The processing error of the proposed technique is also discussed.

Keywords: Level Crossing Sampling, Activity Selection, Adaptive Resolution Analysis, Computational Complexity

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Authors: Pornthep Navakitkanok, Ammarin Pimnoo, Seksan Jaturat

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THEOS is the first earth observation spacecraft of Thailand which was launched on the 1st October 2008 and is currently operated by GISTDA. The transfer phase has been performed by Astrium Flight Dynamics team leading to a hand over to GISTDA teams starting mid-October 2008. The THEOS spacecraft-s orbit is LEO and has the same repetitivity (14+5/26) as the SPOT spacecraft, i.e. the same altitude of 822 km but it has a different mean local solar time (LST). Ground track maintenance manoeuvres are performed to maintain the ground track within a predefined control band around the reference ground track and the band is ±40 km for THEOS spacecraft. This paper presents the first ground track maintenance manoeuvre of THEOS spacecraft and the detailed results. In addition, it also includes one and a half year of operation as seen by GISTDA operators. It finally describes the foreseenable activities for the next orbit control manoeuvre (OCM) preparation.

Keywords: Orbit Control Manoeuvre, Ground Track Error, Local Solar Time Error, LEO, THEOS

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Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal

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The paper discusses the results obtained to predict reinforcement in singly reinforced beam using Neural Net (NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM-s) and Tree Based Models. Major advantage of SVM-s over NN is of minimizing a bound on the generalization error of model rather than minimizing a bound on mean square error over the data set as done in NN. Tree Based approach divides the problem into a small number of sub problems to reach at a conclusion. Number of data was created for different parameters of beam to calculate the reinforcement using limit state method for creation of models and validation. The results from this study suggest a remarkably good performance of tree based and SVM-s models. Further, this study found that these two techniques work well and even better than Neural Network methods. A comparison of predicted values with actual values suggests a very good correlation coefficient with all four techniques.

Keywords: Linear Regression, M5 Model Tree, Neural Network, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

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We present a family of data-reusing and affine projection algorithms. For identification of a noisy linear finite impulse response channel, a partial knowledge of a channel, especially noise, can be used to improve the performance of the adaptive filter. Motivated by this fact, the proposed scheme incorporates an estimate of a knowledge of noise. A constraint, called the adaptive noise constraint, estimates an unknown information of noise. By imposing this constraint on a cost function of data-reusing and affine projection algorithms, a cost function based on the adaptive noise constraint and Lagrange multiplier is defined. Minimizing the new cost function leads to the adaptive noise constrained (ANC) data-reusing and affine projection algorithms. Experimental results comparing the proposed schemes to standard data-reusing and affine projection algorithms clearly indicate their superior performance.

Keywords: Data-reusing, affine projection algorithm, error constraint, system identification.

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Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

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Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, P. Ranjetha, C. Saraswathy, M. Vaishnavi, S. Geetha

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Clustering is an unsupervised learning technique for aggregating data objects into meaningful classes so that intra cluster similarity is maximized and inter cluster similarity is minimized in data mining. However, no single clustering algorithm proves to be the most effective in producing the best result. As a result, a new challenging technique known as the cluster ensemble approach has blossomed in order to determine the solution to this problem. For the cluster analysis issue, this new technique is a successful approach. The cluster ensemble's main goal is to combine similar clustering solutions in a way that achieves the precision while also improving the quality of individual data clustering. Because of the massive and rapid creation of new approaches in the field of data mining, the ongoing interest in inventing novel algorithms necessitates a thorough examination of current techniques and future innovation. This paper presents a comparative analysis of various cluster ensemble approaches, including their methodologies, formal working process, and standard accuracy and error rates. As a result, the society of clustering practitioners will benefit from this exploratory and clear research, which will aid in determining the most appropriate solution to the problem at hand.

Keywords: Clustering, cluster ensemble methods, consensus function, data mining, unsupervised learning.

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Authors: H. Taghvafard, G. H. Erjaee

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A method for solving linear and non-linear Goursat problem is given by using the two-dimensional differential transform method. The approximate solution of this problem is calculated in the form of a series with easily computable terms and also the exact solutions can be achieved by the known forms of the series solutions. The method can easily be applied to many linear and non-linear problems and is capable of reducing the size of computational work. Several examples are given to demonstrate the reliability and the performance of the presented method.

Keywords: Quadrature, Spline interpolation, Trapezoidal rule, Numericalintegration, Error analysis.

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Authors: R. Ashok Bakkiyaraj, N. Kumarappan

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This paper investigates the suitability of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) for composite electric power system reliability analysis. Each sample generated in LHS is mapped into an equivalent system state and used for evaluating the annualized system and load point indices. DC loadflow based state evaluation model is solved for each sampled contingency state. The indices evaluated are loss of load probability, loss of load expectation, expected demand not served and expected energy not supplied. The application of the LHS is illustrated through case studies carried out using RBTS and IEEE-RTS test systems. Results obtained are compared with non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation and state enumeration analytical approaches. An error analysis is also carried out to check the LHS method’s ability to capture the distributions of the reliability indices. It is found that LHS approach estimates indices nearer to actual value and gives tighter bounds of indices than non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Composite power system, Latin Hypercube sampling, Monte Carlo simulation, Reliability evaluation, Variance analysis.

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Authors: Mohammad J. Rezai, Fereshteh Davarpanah

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Producing a text in a language which is not one’s mother tongue can be a demanding task for language learners. Examining lexical errors committed by EFL learners is a challenging area of investigation which can shed light on the process of second language acquisition. Despite the considerable number of investigations into grammatical errors, few studies have tackled formal and semantic errors of lexis committed by EFL learners. The current study aimed at examining Persian learners’ formal and semantic errors of lexis in English. To this end, 60 students at three different proficiency levels were asked to write on 10 different topics in 10 separate sessions. Finally, 600 essays written by Persian EFL learners were collected, acting as the corpus of the study. An error taxonomy comprising formal and semantic errors was selected to analyze the corpus. The formal category covered misselection and misformation errors, while the semantic errors were classified into lexical, collocational and lexicogrammatical categories. Each category was further classified into subcategories depending on the identified errors. The results showed that there were 2583 errors in the corpus of 9600 words, among which, 2030 formal errors and 553 semantic errors were identified. The most frequent errors in the corpus included formal error commitment (78.6%), which were more prevalent at the advanced level (42.4%). The semantic errors (21.4%) were more frequent at the low intermediate level (40.5%). Among formal errors of lexis, the highest number of errors was devoted to misformation errors (98%), while misselection errors constituted 2% of the errors. Additionally, no significant differences were observed among the three semantic error subcategories, namely collocational, lexical choice and lexicogrammatical. The results of the study can shed light on the challenges faced by EFL learners in the second language acquisition process.

Keywords: Collocational errors, lexical errors, Persian EFL learners, semantic errors.

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Authors: Ali Gholami

Abstract:

In this research the Preparation of Land use map of scanner LISS III satellite data, belonging to the IRS in the Aghche region in Isfahan province, is studied carefully. For this purpose, the IRS satellite images of August 2008 and various land preparation uses in region including rangelands, irrigation farming, dry farming, gardens and urban areas were separated and identified. Therefore, the GPS and Erdas Imaging software were used and three methods of Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance were analyzed. In each of these methods, matrix error and Kappa index were calculated and accuracy of each method, based on percentages: 53.13, 56.64 and 48.44, were obtained respectively. Considering the low accuracy of these methods in separation of land preparation use, the visual interpretation of the map was used. Finally, regional visits of 150 points were noted at random and no error was observed. It shows that the map prepared by visual interpretation is in high accuracy. Although the probable errors due to visual interpretation and geometric correction might happen but the desired accuracy of the map which is more than 85 percent is reliable.

Keywords: Land use map, Aghche Region, Erdas Imagine, satellite images

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Authors: Prathuang Usaborisut, Dithaporn Thungsotanon

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Soil compaction induced by a tractor towing trailer becomes a major problem associated to sugarcane productivity. Soil beneath the tractor’s tire is not only under compressing stress but also shearing stress. Therefore, in order to help to understand such effects on soil, this research aimed to determine stress state in soil and predict compaction of soil under a tractive tire. The octahedral stress ratios under the tires were higher than one and much higher under higher draft forces. Moreover, the ratio was increasing with increase of number of tire’s passage. Soil compaction model was developed using data acquired from triaxial tests. The model was then used to predict soil bulk density under tractive tire. The maximum error was about 4% at 15 cm depth under lower draft force and tended to increase with depth and draft force. At depth of 30 cm and under higher draft force, the maximum error was about 16%.

Keywords: Draft force, soil compaction model, stress state, tractive tire.

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Authors: Appanah Rao Appadu, Muhammad Zaid Dauhoo

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In this paper, we have combined some spatial derivatives with the optimised time derivative proposed by Tam and Webb in order to approximate the linear advection equation which is given by = 0. Ôêé Ôêé + Ôêé Ôêé x f t u These spatial derivatives are as follows: a standard 7-point 6 th -order central difference scheme (ST7), a standard 9-point 8 th -order central difference scheme (ST9) and optimised schemes designed by Tam and Webb, Lockard et al., Zingg et al., Zhuang and Chen, Bogey and Bailly. Thus, these seven different spatial derivatives have been coupled with the optimised time derivative to obtain seven different finite-difference schemes to approximate the linear advection equation. We have analysed the variation of the modified wavenumber and group velocity, both with respect to the exact wavenumber for each spatial derivative. The problems considered are the 1-D propagation of a Boxcar function, propagation of an initial disturbance consisting of a sine and Gaussian function and the propagation of a Gaussian profile. It is known that the choice of the cfl number affects the quality of results in terms of dissipation and dispersion characteristics. Based on the numerical experiments solved and numerical methods used to approximate the linear advection equation, it is observed in this work, that the quality of results is dependent on the choice of the cfl number, even for optimised numerical methods. The errors from the numerical results have been quantified into dispersion and dissipation using a technique devised by Takacs. Also, the quantity, Exponential Error for Low Dispersion and Low Dissipation, eeldld has been computed from the numerical results. Moreover, based on this work, it has been found that when the quantity, eeldld can be used as a measure of the total error. In particular, the total error is a minimum when the eeldld is a minimum.

Keywords: Optimised time derivative, dissipation, dispersion, cfl number, Nomenclature: k : time step, h : spatial step, β :advection velocity, r: cfl/Courant number, hkrβ= , w =θ, h : exact wave number, n :time level, RPE : Relative phase error per unit time step, AFM :modulus of amplification factor

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Authors: J. Tonkonogij, A. Pedišius, A. Stankevičius

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The new semi-experimental method for simulation of the turbine flow meters rotation in the transitional flow has been developed. The method is based on the experimentally established exponential low of changing of dimensionless relative turbine gas meter rotation frequency and meter inertia time constant. For experimental evaluation of the meter time constant special facility has been developed. The facility ensures instant switching of turbine meter under test from one channel to the other channel with different flow rate and measuring the meter response. The developed method can be used for evaluation and predication of the turbine meters response and dynamic error in the transitional flow with any arbitrary law of flow rate changing. The examples of the method application are presented.

Keywords: Dynamic error, pulsing flow, numerical simulation, response, turbine gas meters.

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Authors: Ehigiamusoe, Uyi Kizito

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The paper examines the impact of money market on economic growth in Nigeria using data for the period 1980-2012. Econometrics techniques such as Ordinary Least Squares Method, Johanson’s Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model were used to examine both the long-run and short-run relationship. Evidence from the study suggest that though a long-run relationship exists between money market and economic growth, but the present state of the Nigerian money market is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. The link between the money market and the real sector of the economy remains very weak. This implies that the market is not yet developed enough to produce the needed growth that will propel the Nigerian economy because of several challenges. It was therefore recommended that government should create the appropriate macroeconomic policies, legal framework and sustain the present reforms with a view to developing the market so as to promote productive activities, investments, and ultimately economic growth.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Investments, Money Market, Money Market Challenges, Money Market Instruments.

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Authors: Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi, Uday A. Al-Hamdany, Sarah M. Hamylton, Brian G. Jones, Yasir M. Alyazichi

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Surface elevation dynamics have always responded to disturbance regimes. Creating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to detect surface dynamics has led to the development of several methods, devices and data clouds. DEMs can provide accurate and quick results with cost efficiency, in comparison to the inherited geomatics survey techniques. Nowadays, remote sensing datasets have become a primary source to create DEMs, including LiDAR point clouds with GIS analytic tools. However, these data need to be tested for error detection and correction. This paper evaluates various DEMs from different data sources over time for Apple Orchard Island, a coastal site in southeastern Australia, in order to detect surface dynamics. Subsequently, 30 chosen locations were examined in the field to test the error of the DEMs surface detection using high resolution global positioning systems (GPSs). Results show significant surface elevation changes on Apple Orchard Island. Accretion occurred on most of the island while surface elevation loss due to erosion is limited to the northern and southern parts. Concurrently, the projected differential correction and validation method aimed to identify errors in the dataset. The resultant DEMs demonstrated a small error ratio (≤ 3%) from the gathered datasets when compared with the fieldwork survey using RTK-GPS. As modern modelling approaches need to become more effective and accurate, applying several tools to create different DEMs on a multi-temporal scale would allow easy predictions in time-cost-frames with more comprehensive coverage and greater accuracy. With a DEM technique for the eco-geomorphic context, such insights about the ecosystem dynamic detection, at such a coastal intertidal system, would be valuable to assess the accuracy of the predicted eco-geomorphic risk for the conservation management sustainability. Demonstrating this framework to evaluate the historical and current anthropogenic and environmental stressors on coastal surface elevation dynamism could be profitably applied worldwide.

Keywords: DEMs, eco-geomorphic-dynamic processes, geospatial information science. Remote sensing, surface elevation changes.

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Authors: Bandula-Heva, T., Dhanasekar, M.

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True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predicted plastic strains. Coupons obtained at varying depths of the railhead were, therefore, tested under axial tension and the strains were measured using strain gauges as well as an image analysis technique, known as the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The head hardened steel exhibit existence of three distinct zones of yield strength; the yield strength as the ratio of the average yield strength provided in the standard (σyr=780MPa) and the corresponding depth as the ratio of the head hardened zone along the axis of symmetry are as follows: (1.17 σyr, 20%), (1.06 σyr, 20%-80%) and (0.71 σyr, > 80%). The stress-strain curves exhibit limited plastic zone with fracture occurring at strain less than 0.1.

Keywords: Stress-Strain Curve, Tensile Test, Particle Image Velocimetry, Railhead Metal Properties

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Authors: M.R. Mustafa, M.H. Isa, R.B. Rezaur

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Prediction of highly non linear behavior of suspended sediment flow in rivers has prime importance in the field of water resources engineering. In this study the predictive performance of two Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) namely, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) Network and the Multi Layer Feed Forward (MLFF) Network have been compared. Time series data of daily suspended sediment discharge and water discharge at Pari River was used for training and testing the networks. A number of statistical parameters i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used for performance evaluation of the models. Both the models produced satisfactory results and showed a good agreement between the predicted and observed data. The RBF network model provided slightly better results than the MLFF network model in predicting suspended sediment discharge.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, suspendedsediment,

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Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

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Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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Authors: Ruili Zhou, Yuesheng Zhu

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In this paper, a new robust audio fingerprinting algorithm in MP3 compressed domain is proposed with high robustness to time scale modification (TSM). Instead of simply employing short-term information of the MP3 stream, the new algorithm extracts the long-term features in MP3 compressed domain by using the modulation frequency analysis. Our experiment has demonstrated that the proposed method can achieve a hit rate of above 95% in audio retrieval and resist the attack of 20% TSM. It has lower bit error rate (BER) performance compared to the other algorithms. The proposed algorithm can also be used in other compressed domains, such as AAC.

Keywords: Audio Fingerprinting, MP3, Modulation Frequency, TSM

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

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Time history seismic analysis is supposed to be the most accurate method to predict the seismic demand of structures. On the other hand, the required computational time of this method toward achieving the result is its main deficiency. While being applied in optimization process, in which the structure must be analyzed thousands of time, reducing the required computational time of seismic analysis of structures makes the optimization algorithms more practical. Apparently, the invented approximate methods produce some amount of errors in comparison with exact time history analysis but the recently proposed method namely, Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) and Sum Root of the Sum of Squares (SRSS) drastically reduces the computational time by combination of peak responses in each mode. In the present research, the Basic Modal Displacement (BMD) method is introduced and applied towards estimation of seismic demand of main structure. Seismic demand of sampled structure is estimated by calculation of modal displacement of basic structure (in which the modal displacement has been calculated). Shear steel sampled structures are selected as case studies. The error applying the introduced method is calculated by comparison of the estimated seismic demands with exact time history dynamic analysis. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by application of three types of earthquakes (in view of time of peak ground acceleration).

Keywords: Time history dynamic analysis, basic modal displacement, earthquake induced demands, shear steel structures.

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Authors: M. Chandrasekaran, D. Devarasiddappa

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Metal matrix composites have been increasingly used as materials for components in automotive and aerospace industries because of their improved properties compared with non-reinforced alloys. During machining the selection of appropriate machining parameters to produce job for desired surface roughness is of great concern considering the economy of manufacturing process. In this study, a surface roughness prediction model using fuzzy logic is developed for end milling of Al-SiCp metal matrix composite component using carbide end mill cutter. The surface roughness is modeled as a function of spindle speed (N), feed rate (f), depth of cut (d) and the SiCp percentage (S). The predicted values surface roughness is compared with experimental result. The model predicts average percentage error as 4.56% and mean square error as 0.0729. It is observed that surface roughness is most influenced by feed rate, spindle speed and SiC percentage. Depth of cut has least influence.

Keywords: End milling, fuzzy logic, metal matrix composites, surface roughness

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Authors: S. K. Fasogbon

Abstract:

Chaotic system may lead to instability, extreme sensitivity and performance reduction in control systems. It is therefore important to understand the causes of such undesirable characteristics in control system especially in the automobile fuel gauges. This is because without accurate fuel gauges in automobile systems, it will be difficult if not impossible to embark on a journey whether during odd hours of the day or where fuel is difficult to obtain. To this end, this work studied the impacts of fuel tank rust and faulty component of fuel gauge system (voltage stabilizer) on the chaotic characteristics of fuel gauges. The results obtained were analyzed using Graph iSOFT package. Over the range of experiments conducted, the results obtained showed that rust effect of the fuel tank would alter the flow density, consequently the fluid pressure and ultimately the flow velocity of the fuel. The responses of the fuel gauge pointer to the faulty voltage stabilizer were erratic causing noticeable instability of gauge measurands indicated. The experiment also showed that the fuel gauge performed optimally by indicating the highest degree of accuracy when combined the effect of rust free tank and non-faulty voltage stabilizer conditions (± 6.75% measurand error) as compared to only the rust free tank situation (± 15% measurand error) and only the non-faulty voltage stabilizer condition (± 40% measurand error). The study concludes that both the fuel tank rust and the faulty voltage stabilizer gauge component have a significant effect on the sensitivity of fuel gauge and its accuracy ultimately. Also, by the reason of literature, our findings can also be said to be valid for all other fluid meters and gauges applicable in plant machineries and most hydraulic systems.

Keywords: Chaotic system, degree of accuracy, measurand, sensitivity of fuel gauge.

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Authors: M. Ilyas, M. W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

This study employs auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration for long run and errorcorrection modeling (ECM) for short run analysis to examine the relationship between revenue gap and economic growth for Pakistan using annual time series data over the period 1980 to 2008. The short and long run results indicate that revenue gap is statistical significant and negatively effect economic growth. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 10.406 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL cointegration, Economic Growth, RevenueGap, Pakistan.

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Authors: Vahid Reza Nafisi, Mohammad Hasan Moradi, Mohammad Hosain Nasr-Esfahani

Abstract:

The conventional assessment of human semen is a highly subjective assessment, with considerable intra- and interlaboratory variability. Computer-Assisted Sperm Analysis (CASA) systems provide a rapid and automated assessment of the sperm characteristics, together with improved standardization and quality control. However, the outcome of CASA systems is sensitive to the method of experimentation. While conventional CASA systems use digital microscopes with phase-contrast accessories, producing higher contrast images, we have used raw semen samples (no staining materials) and a regular light microscope, with a digital camera directly attached to its eyepiece, to insure cost benefits and simple assembling of the system. However, since the accurate finding of sperms in the semen image is the first step in the examination and analysis of the semen, any error in this step can affect the outcome of the analysis. This article introduces and explains an algorithm for finding sperms in low contrast images: First, an image enhancement algorithm is applied to remove extra particles from the image. Then, the foreground particles (including sperms and round cells) are segmented form the background. Finally, based on certain features and criteria, sperms are separated from other cells.

Keywords: Computer-Assisted Sperm Analysis (CASA), Sperm identification, Tail detection, Elliptic shape model.

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