Search results for: generalized mathematical model.

Authors: S. Grouni, R. Ibtiouen, M. Kidouche, O. Touhami

Abstract:

Induction machine models used for steady-state and transient analysis require machine parameters that are usually considered design parameters or data. The knowledge of induction machine parameters is very important for Indirect Field Oriented Control (IFOC). A mismatched set of parameters will degrade the response of speed and torque control. This paper presents an improvement approach on rotor time constant adaptation in IFOC for Induction Machines (IM). Our approach tends to improve the estimation accuracy of the fundamental model for flux estimation. Based on the reduced order of the IM model, the rotor fluxes and rotor time constant are estimated using only the stator currents and voltages. This reduced order model offers many advantages for real time identification parameters of the IM.

Keywords: Indirect Field Oriented Control (IFOC), InductionMachine (IM), Rotor Time Constant, Parameters ApproachAdaptation. Optimum rotor flux.

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Authors: Anujendra, Parag Kumar Guha Thakurta

Abstract:

The data transmission between mobile hosts and base stations (BSs) in Mobile networks are often vulnerable to failure. So, efficient link connectivity, in terms of the services of both base stations and communication channels of the network, is required in wireless mobile networks to achieve highly reliable data transmission. In addition, it is observed that the number of blocked hosts is increased due to insufficient number of channels during heavy load in the network. Under such scenario, the channels are allocated accordingly to offer a reliable communication at any given time. Therefore, a reliability-based channel allocation model with acceptable system performance is proposed as a MOO problem in this paper. Two conflicting parameters known as Resource Reuse factor (RRF) and the number of blocked calls are optimized under reliability constraint in this problem. The solution to such MOO problem is obtained through NSGA-II (Non dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm). The effectiveness of the proposed model in this work is shown with a set of experimental results.

Keywords: Base station, channel, GA, Pareto-optimal, reliability.

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data. 

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, Safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, Supply chain.

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Authors: Corné J. Coetzee, Etienne Horn

Abstract:

One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out.

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Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21^st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: Climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG, Australia.

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Authors: Giovanni Incerti

Abstract:

The dynamic behaviour of a four-bar linkage driven by a velocity controlled DC motor is discussed in the paper. In particular the author presents the results obtained by means of a specifically developed software, which implements the mathematical models of all components of the system (linkage, transmission, electric motor, control devices). The use of this software enables a more efficient design approach, since it allows the designer to check, in a simple and immediate way, the dynamic behaviour of the mechanism, arising from different values of the system parameters.

Keywords: Four-bar linkage, Speed control, Dynamic analysis.

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yen-Jung Wang

Abstract:

A product development for green logistics model using the fuzzy analytic network process method is presented for evaluating the relationships among the product design, the manufacturing activities, and the green supply chain. In the product development stage, there can be alternative ways to design the detailed components to satisfy the design concept and product requirement. In different design alternative cases, the manufacturing activities can be different. In addition, the manufacturing activities can affect the green supply chain of the components and product. In this research, a fuzzy analytic network process evaluation model is presented for evaluating the criteria in product design, manufacturing activities, and green supply chain. The comparison matrices for evaluating the criteria among the three groups are established. The total relational values between the three groups represent the relationships and effects. In application, the total relational values can be used to evaluate the design alternative cases for decision-making to select a suitable design case and the green supply chain. In this presentation, an example product is illustrated. It shows that the model is useful for integrated evaluation of design and manufacturing and green supply chain for the purpose of product development for green logistics.

Keywords: Supply chain management, green supply chain, product development for logistics, fuzzy analytic network process.

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Authors: Takashi Mitsuishi, Kiyoshi Sawada, Yasunari Shidama

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The mathematical framework for studying of a fuzzy approximate reasoning is presented in this paper. Two important defuzzification methods (Area defuzzification and Height defuzzification) besides the center of gravity method which is the best well known defuzzification method are described. The continuity of the defuzzification methods and its application to a fuzzy feedback control are discussed.

Keywords: Fuzzy approximate reasoning, defuzzification, area method, height method.

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Authors: Himanshu Patel, R. T. Vashi

Abstract:

Adsorption of Toluidine blue dye from aqueous solutions onto Neem Leaf Powder (NLP) has been investigated. The surface characterization of this natural material was examined by Particle size analysis, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD). The effects of process parameters such as initial concentration, pH, temperature and contact duration on the adsorption capacities have been evaluated, in which pH has been found to be most effective parameter among all. The data were analyzed using the Langmuir and Freundlich for explaining the equilibrium characteristics of adsorption. And kinetic models like pseudo first- order, second-order model and Elovich equation were utilized to describe the kinetic data. The experimental data were well fitted with Langmuir adsorption isotherm model and pseudo second order kinetic model. The thermodynamic parameters, such as Free energy of adsorption (AG"), enthalpy change (AH') and entropy change (AS°) were also determined and evaluated.

Keywords: Adsorption, isotherm models, kinetic models, temperature, toluidine blue dye, surface chemistry.

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Authors: Xueqin Shan, Wenhua Hou, Xiaosu Ye, Chuanming Wu

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Any decision-making is based on certain theory. Taking the public rental housing in Chongqing municipality as an example, this essay states that the stakeholder theory can provide innovative criteria and evaluation methods for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. It gives an analysis of how to choose decision-making criteria for different stakeholders in the PPP model and what measures to take to meet the criteria to form “symbiotic" decision-making mode through contracts and to boost the application of PPP model in large-scale public programs in China.

Keywords: PPP, Stakeholder Theory, Stakeholders, Decision- making Criteria

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Authors: Basudev Ghosh, Sailendranath Paul, Sreyasi Banerjee

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Using quantum hydrodynamical (QHD) model the linear dispersion relation for the electron plasma waves propagating in a cylindrical waveguide filled with a dense plasma containing streaming electron, hole and stationary charged dust particles has been derived. It is shown that the effect of finite boundary and stream velocity of electrons and holes make some of the possible modes of propagation linearly unstable. The growth rate of this instability is shown to depend significantly on different plasma parameters.

Keywords: Electron Plasma wave, Quantum plasma, Quantum Hydrodynamical model.

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Authors: Nakhoon Baek

Abstract:

Stipples are desired for pattern fillings and transparency effects. In contrast, some graphics standards, including OpenGL ES 1.1 and 2.0, omitted this feature. We represent details of providing line stipples and polygon stipples, through combining texture mapping and alpha blending functions. We start from the OpenGL-specified stipple-related API functions. The details of mathematical transformations are explained to get the correct texture coordinates. Then, the overall algorithm is represented, and its implementation results are followed. We accomplished both of line and polygon stipples, and verified its result with conformance test routines.

Keywords: Stipple operation, OpenGL ES, Implementation.

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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Authors: Ikbal Zammouri, Béchir Ayeb

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new method to describe fractal shapes using parametric l-systems. First we introduce scaling factors in the production rules of the parametric l-systems grammars. Then we decorticate these grammars with scaling factors using turtle algebra to show the mathematical relation between l-systems and iterated function systems (IFS). We demonstrate that with specific values of the scaling factors, we find the exact relationship established by Prusinkiewicz and Hammel between l-systems and IFS.

Keywords: Fractal shapes, IFS, parametric l-systems, turtlealgebra.

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Authors: K. B. Cullen, G. C. M. Silvestre, N. J. Hurley

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This paper presents software tools that convert the C/Cµ floating point source code for a DSP algorithm into a fixedpoint simulation model that can be used to evaluate the numericalperformance of the algorithm on several different fixed pointplatforms including microprocessors, DSPs and FPGAs. The tools use a novel system for maintaining binary point informationso that the conversion from floating point to fixed point isautomated and the resulting fixed point algorithm achieves maximum possible precision. A configurable architecture is used during the simulation phase so that the algorithm can produce a bit-exact output for several different target devices.

Keywords: DSP devices, DSP algorithm, simulation model, software

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Authors: Petia Georgieva, Sebastião Feyo de Azevedo

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This paper is focused on issues of nonlinear dynamic process modeling and model-based predictive control of a fed-batch sugar crystallization process applying the concept of artificial neural networks as computational tools. The control objective is to force the operation into following optimal supersaturation trajectory. It is achieved by manipulating the feed flow rate of sugar liquor/syrup, considered as the control input. A feed forward neural network (FFNN) model of the process is first built as part of the controller structure to predict the process response over a specified (prediction) horizon. The predictions are supplied to an optimization procedure to determine the values of the control action over a specified (control) horizon that minimizes a predefined performance index. The control task is rather challenging due to the strong nonlinearity of the process dynamics and variations in the crystallization kinetics. However, the simulation results demonstrated smooth behavior of the control actions and satisfactory reference tracking.

Keywords: Feed forward neural network, process modelling, model predictive control, crystallization process.

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Authors: G. Zazzaro, F.M. Pisano, G. Romano

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During last decades, worldwide researchers dedicated efforts to develop machine-based seismic Early Warning systems, aiming at reducing the huge human losses and economic damages. The elaboration time of seismic waveforms is to be reduced in order to increase the time interval available for the activation of safety measures. This paper suggests a Data Mining model able to correctly and quickly estimate dangerousness of the running seismic event. Several thousand seismic recordings of Japanese and Italian earthquakes were analyzed and a model was obtained by means of a Bayesian Network (BN), which was tested just over the first recordings of seismic events in order to reduce the decision time and the test results were very satisfactory. The model was integrated within an Early Warning System prototype able to collect and elaborate data from a seismic sensor network, estimate the dangerousness of the running earthquake and take the decision of activating the warning promptly.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Decision Support System, Magnitude Classification, Seismic Early Warning System

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Authors: H. M. N. L. Handagiripathira

Abstract:

The distributions of naturally occurring and anthropogenic radioactive materials were determined in surface sediments taken at 27 different locations along the bank of Negombo Lagoon in Sri Lanka. Hydrographic parameters of lagoon water and the grain size analyses of the sediment samples were also carried out for this study. The conductivity of the adjacent water was varied from 13.6 mS/cm to 55.4 mS/cm near to the southern end and the northern end of the lagoon, respectively, and equally salinity levels varied from 7.2 psu to 32.1 psu. The average pH in the water was 7.6 and average water temperature was 28.7 °C. The grain size analysis emphasized the mass fractions of the samples as sand (60.9%), fine sand (30.6%) and fine silt+clay (1.3%) in the sampling locations. The surface sediment samples of wet weight, 1 kg each from upper 5-10 cm layer, were oven dried at 105 °C for 24 hours to get a constant weight, homogenized and sieved through a 2 mm sieve (IAEA technical series no. 295). The radioactivity concentrations were determined using gamma spectrometry technique. Ultra Low Background Broad Energy High Purity Ge Detector, BEGe (Model BE5030, Canberra) was used for radioactivity measurement with Canberra Industries' Laboratory Source-less Calibration Software (LabSOCS) mathematical efficiency calibration approach and Geometry composer software. The mean activity concentration was found to be 24 ± 4, 67 ± 9, 181 ± 10, 59 ± 8, 3.5 ± 0.4 and 0.47 ± 0.08 Bq/kg for 238U, 232Th, 40K, 210Pb, 235U and 137Cs respectively. The mean absorbed dose rate in air, radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent and annual effective dose equivalent were 60.8 nGy/h, 137.3 Bq/kg, 0.4, 425.3 mSv/year and 74.6 mSv/year, respectively. The results of this study will provide baseline information on the natural and artificial radioactive isotopes and environmental pollution associated with information on radiological risk.

Keywords: Gamma spectrometry, lagoon, radioactivity, sediments.

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Authors: F. Jiménez, R. Jódar, M. Martín, G. Sánchez, G. Sciavicco

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Abstract—Attribute or feature selection is one of the basic strategies to improve the performances of data classification tasks, and, at the same time, to reduce the complexity of classifiers, and it is a particularly fundamental one when the number of attributes is relatively high. Its application to unsupervised classification is restricted to a limited number of experiments in the literature. Evolutionary computation has already proven itself to be a very effective choice to consistently reduce the number of attributes towards a better classification rate and a simpler semantic interpretation of the inferred classifiers. We present a feature selection wrapper model composed by a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, the clustering method Expectation-Maximization (EM), and the classifier C4.5 for the unsupervised classification of data extracted from a psychological test named BASC-II (Behavior Assessment System for Children - II ed.) with two objectives: Maximizing the likelihood of the clustering model and maximizing the accuracy of the obtained classifier. We present a methodology to integrate feature selection for unsupervised classification, model evaluation, decision making (to choose the most satisfactory model according to a a posteriori process in a multi-objective context), and testing. We compare the performance of the classifier obtained by the multi-objective evolutionary algorithms ENORA and NSGA-II, and the best solution is then validated by the psychologists that collected the data.

Keywords: Feature selection, multi-objective evolutionary computation, unsupervised classification, behavior assessment system for children.

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. This finding needs to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: Floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier.

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Authors: Kristina Maiksteniene

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Various formal and informal brand alliances are being formed in professional service firms. Professional service corporate brand is heavily dependent on brands of professional employees who comprise them, and professional employee brands are in turn dependent on the corporate brand. Prior work provides limited scientific evidence of brand alliance effects in professional service area – i.e., how professional service corporate-employee brand allies are affected by an alliance, what are brand attitude effects after alliance formation and how these effects vary with different strengths of an ally. Scientific literature analysis and theoretical modeling are the main methods of the current study. As a result, a theoretical model is constructed for estimating spillover effects of professional service corporate-employee brand alliances and for comparison among different professional service firm expertise practice models – from “brains" to “procedure" model. The resulting theoretical model lays basis for future experimental studies.

Keywords: Brand alliances, professional services, corporatebrand, employee brand.

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Abstract:

The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: Air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies.

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Authors: Zhizhong Jiang, Craig Comstock

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The past decade has seen enormous growth in the amount of software produced. However, given the ever increasing complexity of the software being developed and the concomitant rise in the typical project size, managers are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of issues that influence the productivity levels of the project teams involved. By analyzing the latest release of ISBSG data repository, we report on the factors found to significantly influence the productivity among which average team size and language type are the two most essential ones. Building on this we present an original model for evaluating the potential productivity during the project planning stage.

Keywords: ISBSG, Linear Model, Productivity, SoftwareEngineering.

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Authors: M. Abdulkadir, V. Hernandez-Perez

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The characteristics of fluid flow and phase separation in an oil-water separator were numerically analysed as part of the work presented herein. Simulations were performed for different velocities and droplet diameters, and the way this parameters can influence the separator geometry was studied. The simulations were carried out using the software package Fluent 6.2, which is designed for numerical simulation of fluid flow and mass transfer. The model consisted of a cylindrical horizontal separator. A tetrahedral mesh was employed in the computational domain. The condition of two-phase flow was simulated with the two-fluid model, taking into consideration turbulence effects using the k-ε model. The results showed that there is a strong dependency of phase separation on mixture velocity and droplet diameter. An increase in mixture velocity will bring about a slow down in phase separation and as a consequence will require a weir of greater height. An increase in droplet diameter will produce a better phase separation. The simulations are in agreement with results reported in literature and show that CFD can be a useful tool in studying a horizontal oilwater separator.

Keywords: CFD, droplet diameter, mixture velocity

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Authors: Karim A. Tahboub

Abstract:

This article discusses the problem of estimating the orientation of inclined ground on which a human subject stands based on information provided by the vestibular system consisting of the otolith and semicircular canals. It is assumed that body segments are not necessarily aligned and thus forming an open kinematic chain. The semicircular canals analogues to a technical gyrometer provide a measure of the angular velocity whereas the otolith analogues to a technical accelerometer provide a measure of the translational acceleration. Two solutions are proposed and discussed. The first is based on a stand-alone Kalman filter that optimally fuses the two measurements based on their dynamic characteristics and their noise properties. In this case, no body dynamic model is needed. In the second solution, a central extended disturbance observer that incorporates a body dynamic model (internal model) is employed. The merits of both solutions are discussed and demonstrated by experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Kalman filter, orientation estimation, otolith-canalfusion, vestibular system.

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador.

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Authors: V. Vassiliou, M. Charalambides, M. Menicou

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Fish-feed is a major cost component of operating expenses for any aquaculture farm. Due to soaring prices of fish-feed ingredients, the need for better feeding schedule management has become imperative. On such factor that influences the utilization rate of fish-feed are sea currents. Up to now, practical monitoring of fishfeed loss due to sea currents is not exercised. This paper gives a description of an economic methodology that aims at quantifying the amount of fish-feed lost due to sea currents and draws on data from a Mediterranean aquaculture farm to formulate the associated model.

Keywords: Aquaculture, economic model, fish-feed loss, sea currents.

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

Abstract:

We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly-observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: Deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis.

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

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The objective of meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence base for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research significantly changed over time and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable only to fixed effect model (FEM) of meta-analysis. For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, τ 2 and its estimation create complications. In this paper we study the use of a truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring in REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of applications.

Keywords: Meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential testing, temporal changes in effect sizes.

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

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In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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