Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological System of the Harvey River Catchment
Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1129906Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 982
 Department of Water (DoW), “Water solutions, winter ’08”. 2008. Perth, Western Australia.
 O. Barron, R. Crosbie, S. Charles, W. Dawes, R. Ali, W. Evans, R. Cresswell, D. Pollock, G. Hodgson, D. Currie. “Climate change impact on groundwater resources in Australia”. Waterlines Report (67), 2011. Online/print: 978-1-921853-51-7.
 K. B. Hennessy, B. Fitzharris, B. C. Bates, N. Harvey, M. Howden, L. Hughes, R. Warrick, “Australia and New Zealand: climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. 2007.
 F. Chiew, J. Teng, J. Vaze, D. Post, J. Perraud, D. Kirono, N. Viney, “Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia: Method, results, and implications of the modeling method”. Water Resources Research, 2009. (45), W10414.
 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), “Surface water yields in south-west Western Australia, a report to the Australian government from the CSIRO south-west Western Australia sustainable yields project, CSIRO water for a healthy country flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia”. 2009, pp. 171 5.
 R. P. Silberstein, S. K. Aryal, J. Durrant, M. Pearcey, M. Braccia, S. P. Charles, D. J. McFarlane, “Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia”. Journal of Hydrology, 2012. 475, pp. 441-455.
 D. McFarlane, R. Stone, S. Martens, J. Thomas, R. Silberstein, R. Ali, G. Hodgson, “Climate change impacts on water yields and demands in south-western Australia”. Journal of Hydrology, 2012. 475, pp. 488-498.
 S. A. Islam, M.A. Bari, A. H. M. F. Anwar, “Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment of Western Australia: a projection of rainfall-runoff for future water resources planning”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014. 18, p.p. 3591–3614.
 L. Cheng, L. Zhang, Y. P. Wang, Q. Yu, D. Eamus, A. O’Grady, “Impacts of elevated CO2, climate change and their interactions on water budgets in four different catchments in Australia”. Journal of Hydrology, 2014. 519, pp. 1350-1361.
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, contribution of working group ii to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, summary for policymakers”. 2001. pp. 17. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK.
 S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. CHEN, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, K. Tignor, H. Miller, “Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007”. 2007. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
 E. Zorita, H. Von Storch, “The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods”. Journal of climate, 1999. 12, pp. 2474-2489.
 B. Bates, Z. W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, J. Palutikof, “Climate change and water”. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2008.
 M. A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, (2010). “Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts”. Climate research (Open Access for articles 4 years old and older), 2010. 41 (1), 1.
 L. N. Gunawardhana, G. A. Al-Rawas, S. Kazama, K. A. Al-Najar, (2015). “Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime”. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 2015. 187 (10), pp. 1-19.
 N. S. Christensen, D. P. Lettenmaier, “A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2007. 11, pp. 1417–1434.
 Y. Fujihara, K. Tanaka, T. Watanabe, T. Nagano, T. Kojiri, “Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the seyhan river basin in turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations”. J. Hydrol., 2008. pp. 353, 33–48.
 M. A. Bari, G. E. Amirthanathan, B. Timbal, “Climate change and long term water availability in south-western Australia – an experimental projection”. Practical Responses to Climate Change National Conference 2010, Hilton on the Park, Melbourne, Australia, 29 September–1 October 2010, 2010.
 Z. W. Kundzewicz, L. J. Mata, N. W. Arnell, P. Döll, P. Kabat, B. Jiménez, K. A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Sen, I. A. Shiklomanov, “Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” Edited by: M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, C. E. Hanson. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007, pp. 173–210.
 T. L. A. Driessen, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, W. Terink, P. Hazenberg, P. J. J. F. Torfs, R. Uijlenhoet, “The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2010. 14 (4), pp. 651-665.
 S. Charles, R. Silberstein, J. Teng, G. Fu, G. Hodgson, C. Gabrovsek, W. Cai, “Climate analyses for south-west Western Australia”. 2010. A Report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project.
 P. Kelsey, J. Hall, P. Kretschmer, B. Quinton, D. Shakya, “Hydrological and nutrient modelling of the Peel-Harvey catchment”. 2010. Water Science Technical Series, Report.
 Peel-Harvey Catchment Council. “Adapting to climate change in the Peel region: Improving local government emergency management and biodiversity conservation services”. 2012. A report by Kim Byrnes to the PHCC, edited by Andrew Del Marco, Mandurah, Western Australia.
 Department of Water (DoW). “Hydrological and nutrient modelling of the Peel-Harvey catchment”. 2011.
 G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, K. E. Taylor, T. Delworth, R. J. Stouffer, M. Latif, J. F. Mitchell, “The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2007. 88 (9), pp. 1383-1394.
 M. A. Collier, S. J. Jeffrey, L. D. Rotstayn, K. K. Wong, S. M. Dravitzki, C. Moseneder, ... & A. El Zein,. “The CSIRO-Mk3. 6.0 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM: participation in CMIP5 and data publication”. 2011. In International Congress on Modelling and Simulation–MODSIM.
 B. Felzer, D. Sahagian, “Climate impacts on regional ecosystem services in the United States from CMIP3-based multimodel comparisons”. Climate Research, 2014. 61 (2), pp. 133.
 H. I. Chang, C. L. Castro, C. M. Carrillo, F. Dominguez, “The more extreme nature of US warm season climate in the recent observational record and two “well‐performing” dynamically downscaled CMIP3 models”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015. 120 (16), pp. 8244-8263.
 Z. Deng, X. Qiu, J. Liu, N. Madras, X. Wang, H. Zhu, “Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs”. Climate Dynamics, 2015. pp. 1-13.
 C. Onyutha, H. Tabari, A. Rutkowska, P. Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P. Willems, “Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5”. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 2016. 12, pp. 31-45.
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Special Report on Emission Scenarios”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000. pp. 570.
 S. Bergström, “The HBV-model, in: V.P. Singh (Ed.), Computer Models for Watershed Hydrology”. Water Resources Publications, 1995. pp. 443-476.
 J. Seibert, (2005) “HBV light version 2. User’s manual”. Stockholm University, 2005.
 SMHI, “Integrated Hydrological Modelling System (IHMS)”. 2012. User manual, Version 6.3. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
 J. Seibert, “Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2000. 4 (2), pp. 215-224.
 R. Lidén, J. Harlin, “Analysis of conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling performance in different climates”. Journal of hydrology, 2000. 238, pp. 231-247.
 G. Lindström, B. Johansson, M. Persson, M., Gardelin, S. Bergström, “Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model”. Journal of hydrology, 1997 201 (1), pp. 272-288.
 N. A. Abebe, F. L. Ogden, N. R. PRADHAN, (2010) “Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the conceptual HBV rainfall–runoff model: Implications for parameter estimation”. Journal of Hydrology, 2010. 389, pp. 301-310.
 S. P. Charles, B. C. Bates, I. N. Smith, J. P. Hughes, “Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation from observed and modelled atmospheric fields”. Hydrological Processes, 2004. 18 (8), pp. 1373-1394.
 H. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, C. Tebaldi, (2007) “Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling”. International journal of climatology, 2007. 27, pp. 1547-1578.
 H. B. Gordon, S. P. O'Farrell, “Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice”. Monthly Weather Review, 1997. 125 (5), pp. 875-908.
 M. Nunez, J. L. McGregor, “Modelling future water environments of Tasmania, Australia”. Climate Research: Interactions of Climate with Organisms, Ecosystems, and Human Societies, 2007. 34 (1), pp. 25-37.
 M. S. Semenov, E. M. Barrow, “A stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies”. 2002. User Manual: Hertfordshire, UK.
 J. R. Porter M. A. Semenov, “Crop responses to climatic variation”. Philos Trans R Soc B, 2005. 360, pp. 2021–2035.
 M. A. Semenov, E. M. Barrow, “Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios”. Climatic change, 1997. 35 (4), pp. 397-414.
 D. S. Wilks R. L. Wilby, “The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models”. Prog Phys Geogr, 1999. 23, pp. 329–357.
 J. E. Nash, J. V. Sutcliffe, “River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—A discussion of principles”. Journal of hydrology, 1970. 10, pp. 282-290.
 J. Doorenbos, W. O. Pruitt, “Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements”. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper, 1977. 24, 144 pp.
 J. P. Palutikof, C. M. Goodess, X. Guo, “Climate change, potential evapotranspiration and moisture availability in the Mediterranean Basin”. International Journal of climatology, 1994. 14 (8), pp. 853-869.