Search results for: series PID controller.

Authors: Iman Mousavinejad, Reza Kazemi, , Mohsen Bayani Khaknejad

Abstract:

Active Front Steering system (AFS) provides an electronically controlled superposition of an angle to the steering wheel angle. This additional degree of freedom enables a continuous and driving-situation dependent on adaptation of the steering characteristics. In an active steering system, there needs be no fixed relationship between the steering wheel and the angle of the road wheels. Not only can the effective steering ratio be varied with speed, for example, but also the road wheel angles can be controlled by a combination of driver and computer inputs. Features like steering comfort, effort and steering dynamics are optimized and stabilizing steering interventions can be performed. In contrast to the conventional stability control, the yaw rate was fed back to AFS controller and the stability performance was optimized with Sliding Mode control (SMC) method. In addition, tire uncertainties have been taken into account in SM controller to provide the control robustness. In this paper, 3-DOF nonlinear model is used to design the AFS controller and 8-DOF nonlinear model is used to model the controlled vehicle.

Keywords: Active Front Steering (AFS), Sliding Mode Control method (SMC), Yaw rate, Vehicle Stability, Robustness

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Authors: Theodor D. Popescu

Abstract:

The paper presents a method for multivariate time series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different method for each component, depending on its time structure. The paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, second order statistics, simulation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Minjeong Kim, Seungchul Lee, Iman Janghorban Esfahani, Jeong Tai Kim, Chang Kyoo Yoo

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This study was carried out for an underground subway station at Seoul Metro, Korea. The optimal set-points of the ventilation control system are determined every 3 hours, then, the ventilation controller adjusts the ventilation fan speed according to the optimal set-point changes. Compared to manual ventilation system which is operated irrespective of the OAQ, the IDP-based ventilation control system saves 3.7% of the energy consumption. Compared to the fixed set-point controller which is operated irrespective of the IAQ diurnal variation, the IDP-based controller shows better performance with a 2% decrease in energy consumption, maintaining the comfortable IAQ range inside the station.

Keywords: Indoor air quality, iterative dynamic algorithm, outdoor air information, ventilation control system.

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Authors: A. Boualouch, A. Essadki, T. Nasser, A. Boukhriss, A. Frigui

Abstract:

This paper presents a power control for a Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) using in Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) connected to the grid. The proposed control strategy employs two nonlinear controllers, Backstipping (BSC) and slidingmode controller (SMC) scheme to directly calculate the required rotor control voltage so as to eliminate the instantaneous errors of active and reactive powers. In this paper the advantages of BSC and SMC are presented, the performance and robustness of this two controller’s strategy are compared between them. First, we present a model of wind turbine and DFIG machine, then a synthesis of the controllers and their application in the DFIG power control. Simulation results on a 1.5MW grid-connected DFIG system are provided by MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: Backstipping, DFIG, power control, sliding-mode, WESC.

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Authors: A. R. Tavakolpour-Saleh, A. R. Setoodeh, E. Ansari

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and control of a highly nonlinear system including, non-interacting two spherical tanks using iterative learning control (ILC). Consequently, the objective of the paper is to control the liquid levels in the nonlinear tanks. First, a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is applied to the plant model as a suitable benchmark for comparison. Then, dynamic responses of the control system corresponding to different step inputs are investigated. It is found that the conventional PID control is not able to fulfill the design criteria such as desired time constant. Consequently, an iterative learning controller is proposed to accurately control the coupled nonlinear tanks system. The simulation results clearly demonstrate the superiority of the presented ILC approach over the conventional PID controller to cope with the nonlinearities presented in the dynamic system.

Keywords: Iterative learning control, spherical tanks, nonlinear system.

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Authors: R. Karbalaei, A. Ghaffari, R. Kazemi, S. H. Tabatabaei

Abstract:

An integrated vehicle dynamics control system is developed in this paper by a combination of active front steering (AFS) and direct yaw-moment control (DYC) based on fuzzy logic control. The control system has a hierarchical structure consisting of two layers. A fuzzy logic controller is used in the upper layer (yaw rate controller) to keep the yaw rate in its desired value. The yaw rate error and its rate of change are applied to the upper controlling layer as inputs, where the direct yaw moment control signal and the steering angle correction of the front wheels are the outputs. In the lower layer (fuzzy integrator), a fuzzy logic controller is designed based on the working region of the lateral tire forces. Depending on the directions of the lateral forces at the front wheels, a switching function is activated to adjust the scaling factor of the fuzzy logic controller. Using a nonlinear seven degrees of freedom vehicle model, the simulation results illustrate considerable improvements which are achieved in vehicle handling through the integrated AFS/DYC control system in comparison with the individual AFS or DYC controllers.

Keywords: Intelligent strategy, integrated control, fuzzy logic, AFS/DYC.

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Authors: Jose D. Herrera, Mario A. Rios

Abstract:

This paper deals with the coordinated tuning of the Power System Stabilizer (PSS) controller and Power Oscillation Damping (POD) Controller of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) in a multi-machine power systems. The coordinated tuning is based on the critical eigenvalues of the power system and a model reduction technique where the Hankel Singular Value method is applied. Through the linearized system model and the parameter-constrained nonlinear optimization algorithm, it can compute the parameters of both controllers. Moreover, the parameters are optimized simultaneously obtaining the gains of both controllers. Then, the nonlinear simulation to observe the time response of the controller is performed.

Keywords: Balanced realization, controllability Grammian, electromechanical oscillations, FACTS, Hankel singular values, observability Grammian, POD, PSS.

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Authors: Njiri J. G., Ikua B. W., Nyakoe G. N.

Abstract:

Optimization of cutting parameters important in precision machining in regards to efficiency and surface integrity of the machined part. Usually productivity and precision in machining is limited by the forces emanating from the cutting process. Due to the inherent varying nature of the workpiece in terms of geometry and material composition, the peak cutting forces vary from point to point during machining process. In order to increase productivity without compromising on machining accuracy, it is important to control these cutting forces. In this paper a fuzzy logic control algorithm is developed that can be applied in the control of peak cutting forces in milling of spherical surfaces using ball end mills. The controller can adaptively vary the feedrate to maintain allowable cutting force on the tool. This control algorithm is implemented in a computer numerical control (CNC) machine. It has been demonstrated that the controller can provide stable machining and improve the performance of the CNC milling process by varying feedrate.

Keywords: Ball-end mill, feedrate, fuzzy logic controller, machining optimization, spherical surface.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

Abstract:

This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

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Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: O.M. Mohamed vall, M. Radhi

Abstract:

This work presents a recursive identification algorithm. This algorithm relates to the identification of closed loop system with Variable Structure Controller. The approach suggested includes two stages. In the first stage a genetic algorithm is used to obtain the parameters of switching function which gives a control signal rich in commutations (i.e. a control signal whose spectral characteristics are closest possible to those of a white noise signal). The second stage consists in the identification of the system parameters by the instrumental variable method and using the optimal switching function parameters obtained with the genetic algorithm. In order to test the validity of this algorithm a simulation example is presented.

Keywords: Closed loop identification, variable structure controller, pseud-random binary sequence, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: Mehdi Nasri, Hossein Nezamabadi-pour, Malihe Maghfoori

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This Paper presents a particle swarm optimization (PSO) method for determining the optimal proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller parameters, for speed control of a linear brushless DC motor. The proposed approach has superior features, including easy implementation, stable convergence characteristic and good computational efficiency. The brushless DC motor is modelled in Simulink and the PSO algorithm is implemented in MATLAB. Comparing with Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear quadratic regulator (LQR) method, the proposed method was more efficient in improving the step response characteristics such as, reducing the steady-states error; rise time, settling time and maximum overshoot in speed control of a linear brushless DC motor.

Keywords: Brushless DC motor, Particle swarm optimization, PID Controller, Optimal control.

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Authors: B.P. Bezruchko, D.A. Smirnov

Abstract:

Quantitative characterization of nonlinear directional couplings between stochastic oscillators from data is considered. We suggest coupling characteristics readily interpreted from a physical viewpoint and their estimators. An expression for a statistical significance level is derived analytically that allows reliable coupling detection from a relatively short time series. Performance of the technique is demonstrated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: Nonlinear time series analysis, directional couplings, coupled oscillators.

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Authors: Donatien Callon, Ian Lalonde, Mathieu Nadeau, Alexandre Girard

Abstract:

Patient transfer is a challenging, critical task because it exposes caregivers to injury risks. Available transfer devices, like floor lifts, lead to improvements but are far from perfect. They do not eliminate the caregivers’ risk of musculoskeletal disorders, and they can be burdensome to use due to their poor maneuverability. This paper presents a motorized floor lift with a single central motorized wheel connected to an instrumented handle. Admittance controllers are designed to 1) improve the device maneuverability, 2) reduce the required caregiver effort, and 3) ensure the security and comfort of patients. Two controller designs, one with a linear admittance law and a non-linear admittance law with variable damping, were developed and implemented on a prototype. Tests were performed on seven participants to evaluate the performance of the assistance system and the controllers. The experimental results show that 1) the motorized assistance with the variable damping controller improves maneuverability by 28%, 2) reduces the amount of effort required to push the lift by 66% and 3) provides the same level of patient comfort compared to a standard unassisted floor lift.

Keywords: Floor lift, human robot interaction, admittance controller, variable admittance.

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Authors: Jin-Sung Kim, Jin-Hwan Kim, Ji-Mo Park, Sung-Man Park, Won-Yong Choe, Hoon Heo

Abstract:

An optimal control of Reverse Osmosis (RO) plant is studied in this paper utilizing the auto tuning concept in conjunction with PID controller. A control scheme composing an auto tuning stochastic technique based on an improved Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed. For better evaluation of the process in GA, objective function defined newly in sense of root mean square error has been used. Also in order to achieve better performance of GA, more pureness and longer period of random number generation in operation are sought. The main improvement is made by replacing the uniform distribution random number generator in conventional GA technique to newly designed hybrid random generator composed of Cauchy distribution and linear congruential generator, which provides independent and different random numbers at each individual steps in Genetic operation. The performance of newly proposed GA tuned controller is compared with those of conventional ones via simulation.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Auto tuning, Hybrid random number generator, Reverse Osmosis, PID controller

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Authors: Ali Al-Zughaibi, Huw Davies

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling and control of a quarter-car active suspension system with unknown mass, unknown time-delay and road disturbance. The objective of designing the controller is to derive a control law to achieve stability of the system and convergence that can considerably improve ride comfort and road disturbance handling. This is accomplished by using Routh-Hurwitz criterion based on defined parameters. Mathematical proof is given to show the ability of the designed controller to ensure the target of design, implementation with the active suspension system and enhancement dispersion oscillation of the system despite these problems. Simulations were also performed to control quarter car suspension, where the results obtained from these simulations verify the validity of the proposed design.

Keywords: Active suspension system, disturbance rejection, dynamic uncertainty, time-delay.

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Authors: A. P. Kulkarni, P. Randive, A. R. Mache

Abstract:

In today-s era of plasma and laser cutting, machines using oxy-acetylene flame are also meritorious due to their simplicity and cost effectiveness. The objective to devise a Computer controlled Oxy-Fuel profile cutting machine arose from the increasing demand for metal cutting with respect to edge quality, circularity and lesser formation of redeposit material. The System has an 8 bit micro controller based embedded system, which assures stipulated time response. A new window based Application software was devised which takes a standard CAD file .DXF as input and converts it into numerical data required for the controller. It uses VB6 as a front end whereas MS-ACCESS and AutoCAD as back end. The system is designed around AT89C51RD2, powerful 8 bit, ISP micro controller from Atmel and is optimized to achieve cost effectiveness and also maintains the required accuracy and reliability for complex shapes. The backbone of the system is a cleverly designed mechanical assembly along with the embedded system resulting in an accuracy of about 10 microns while maintaining perfect linearity in the cut. This results in substantial increase in productivity. The observed results also indicate reduced inter laminar spacing of pearlite with an increase in the hardness of the edge region.

Keywords: Computer-Control, Profile, Oxy-Fuel.

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Authors: Rehab I. Abdul Rahman, Mazhar B. Tayel

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of hardening the 8051 micro-controller, able to assure reliable operation in the presence of bit flips caused by radiation. Aiming at avoiding such faults in the 8051 micro-controller, Hamming code protection was used in its SRAM memory and registers. A VHDL code has been used for this hamming code protection.

Keywords: Radiation, hardening, bitflip, hamming code.

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Authors: T. C. Kuo, Y. J. Huang, B. W. Hong

Abstract:

This paper proposes an adaptive sliding mode controller which combines adaptive control and sliding mode control to control a nonlinear robotic manipulator with uncertain parameters. We use an adaptive algorithm based on the concept of sliding mode control to alleviate the chattering phenomenon of control input. Adaptive laws are developed to obtain the gain of switching input and the boundary layer parameters. The stability and convergence of the robotic manipulator control system are guaranteed by applying the Lyapunov theorem. Simulation results demonstrate that the chattering of control input can be alleviated effectively. The proposed controller scheme can assure robustness against a large class of uncertainties and achieve good trajectory tracking performance.

Keywords: Robotic manipulators, sliding mode control, adaptive law, Lyapunov theorem, robustness.

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Authors: Rong-Terng Juang

Abstract:

Autonomous vehicles offer the possibility of significant benefits to social welfare. However, fully automated cars might not be going to happen in the near further. To speed the adoption of the self-driving technologies, many governments worldwide are passing laws requiring data recorders for the testing of autonomous vehicles. Currently, the self-driving vehicle, (e.g., shuttle bus) has to be monitored from a remote control center. When an autonomous vehicle encounters an unexpected driving environment, such as road construction or an obstruction, it should request assistance from a remote operator. Nevertheless, large amounts of data, including images, radar and lidar data, etc., have to be transmitted from the vehicle to the remote center. Therefore, this paper proposes a data compression method of in-vehicle networks for remote monitoring of autonomous vehicles. Firstly, the time-series data are rearranged into a multi-dimensional signal space. Upon the arrival, for controller area networks (CAN), the new data are mapped onto a time-data two-dimensional space associated with the specific CAN identity. Secondly, the data are sampled based on differential sampling. Finally, the whole set of data are encoded using existing algorithms such as Huffman, arithmetic and codebook encoding methods. To evaluate system performance, the proposed method was deployed on an in-house built autonomous vehicle. The testing results show that the amount of data can be reduced as much as 1/7 compared to the raw data.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicle, data recording, remote monitoring, controller area network.

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Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami

Abstract:

In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.

Keywords: Function tuner method, fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Consalva J. Msigwa, Beda J. Kundy, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

Abstract:

In this paper the reference current for Voltage Source Converter (VSC) of the Shunt Active Power Filter (SAPF) is generated using Synchronous Reference Frame method, incorporating the PI controller with anti-windup scheme. The proposed method improves the harmonic filtering by compensating the winding up phenomenon caused by the integral term of the PI controller. Using Reference Frame Transformation, the current is transformed from om a - b - c stationery frame to rotating 0 - d - q frame. Using the PI controller, the current in the 0 - d - q frame is controlled to get the desired reference signal. A controller with integral action combined with an actuator that becomes saturated can give some undesirable effects. If the control error is so large that the integrator saturates the actuator, the feedback path becomes ineffective because the actuator will remain saturated even if the process output changes. The integrator being an unstable system may then integrate to a very large value, the phenomenon known as integrator windup. Implementing the integrator anti-windup circuit turns off the integrator action when the actuator saturates, hence improving the performance of the SAPF and dynamically compensating harmonics in the power network. In this paper the system performance is examined with Shunt Active Power Filter simulation model.

Keywords: Phase Locked Loop (PLL), Voltage SourceConverter (VSC), Shunt Active Power Filter (SAPF), PI, Pulse WidthModulation (PWM).

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Authors: R.Vinodha S. Abraham Lincoln, J. Prakash

Abstract:

Multi-loop (De-centralized) Proportional-Integral- Derivative (PID) controllers have been used extensively in process industries due to their simple structure for control of multivariable processes. The objective of this work is to design multiple-model adaptive multi-loop PID strategy (Multiple Model Adaptive-PID) and neural network based multi-loop PID strategy (Neural Net Adaptive-PID) for the control of multivariable system. The first method combines the output of multiple linear PID controllers, each describing process dynamics at a specific level of operation. The global output is an interpolation of the individual multi-loop PID controller outputs weighted based on the current value of the measured process variable. In the second method, neural network is used to calculate the PID controller parameters based on the scheduling variable that corresponds to major shift in the process dynamics. The proposed control schemes are simple in structure with less computational complexity. The effectiveness of the proposed control schemes have been demonstrated on the CSTR process, which exhibits dynamic non-linearity.

Keywords: Multiple-model Adaptive PID controller, Multivariableprocess, CSTR process.

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Authors: Abdul Rashid Husain, Mohamad Noh Ahmad, Abdul Halim Mohd Yatim

Abstract:

In this paper, a few chattering-free Sliding Mode Controllers (SMC) are proposed to stabilize an Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB) system with gyroscopic effect that is proportional to the rotor speed. The improved switching terms of the controller inherited from the saturation-type function and boundary layer control technique is shown to be able to achieve bounded and asymptotic stability, respectively, while the chattering effect in the input is attenuated. This is proven to be advantageous for AMB system since minimization of chattering results in optimized control effort. The performance of each controller is demonstrated via result of simulation in which the measurement of the total consumed energy and maximum control magnitude of each controller illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed controllers.

Keywords: Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB), Sliding Mode Control (SMC), chattering-free SMC.

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Prashant Kumar Soori, Parthasarathy L., Masami Okano, Awet Mana

Abstract:

Off-grid Photovoltaic (PV) systems are empowering technology in underdeveloped countries like Ethiopia where many people live far away from the modern world. Where there is relatively low energy consumption, providing energy from grid systems is not commercially cost-effective. As a result, significant people groups worldwide stay without access to electricity. One remote village in northern Ethiopia was selected by the United Nations for a pilot project to improve its living conditions. As part of this comprehensive project, an intelligent charge controller circuit for Off-grid PV systems was designed for the clinic in that village. In this paper, design aspects of an intelligent charge controller unit and its load driver circuits are discussed for an efficient utilization of PVbased supply systems.

Keywords: Compact Fluorescent Lamp (CFL), FluorescentLamp, Intelligent Charge Controller Unit (ICCU), Light EmittingDiode (LED), Photovoltaic (PV).

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Authors: Abdelaziz Sahbani, Kamel Ben Saad, Mohamed Benrejeb

Abstract:

This paper proposes a Fuzzy Sliding Mode Control (FSMC) as a control strategy for Buck-Boost DC-DC converter. The proposed fuzzy controller specifies changes in the control signal based on the knowledge of the surface and the surface change to satisfy the sliding mode stability and attraction conditions. The performances of the proposed fuzzy sliding controller are compared to those obtained by a classical sliding mode controller. The satisfactory simulation results show the efficiency of the proposed control law which reduces the chattering phenomenon. Moreover, the obtained results prove the robustness of the proposed control law against variation of the load resistance and the input voltage of the studied converter.

Keywords: Buck Boost converter, Sliding Mode Control, Fuzzy Sliding Mode Control, robustness, chattering.

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Authors: N. Kaewpraek, W. Assawinchaichote

Abstract:

This paper considers an H_∞ TS fuzzy state-derivative feedback controller for a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. A Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model is used to approximate a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Then, based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we design an H_∞ TS fuzzy state-derivative feedback control law which guarantees L₂-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less or equal to a prescribed value. We derive a sufficient condition such that the system with the fuzzy controller is asymptotically stable and H_∞ performance is satisfied. Finally, we provide and simulate a numerical example is provided to illustrate the stability and the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: H∞ fuzzy control, LMI, Takagi-Sugano (TS) fuzzy model, nonlinear dynamic systems, state-derivative feedback.

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Authors: S. Leghmizi, S. Liu, F. Naeim

Abstract:

This paper presents a fuzzy control system for a three degree of freedom (3-DOF) stabilized platform with explicit decoupling scheme. The system under consideration is a system with strong interactions between three channels. By using the concept of decentralized control, a control structure is developed that is composed of three control loops, each of which is associated with a single-variable fuzzy controller and a decoupling unit. Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy control algorithm is used to implement the fuzzy controller. The decoupling units design is based on the adaptive theory reasoning. Simulation tests were established using Simulink of Matlab. The obtained results have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Simulation results are represented in this paper.

Keywords: 3-DOF platform of a ship carried antenna, the concept of decentralized control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy control algorithm, Simulink.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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