Search results for: Multi class Classification

Authors: Liming Zhang

Abstract:

There have been different approaches to compute the analytic instantaneous frequency with a variety of background reasoning and applicability in practice, as well as restrictions. This paper presents an adaptive Fourier decomposition and (α-counting) based instantaneous frequency computation approach. The adaptive Fourier decomposition is a recently proposed new signal decomposition approach. The instantaneous frequency can be computed through the so called mono-components decomposed by it. Due to the fast energy convergency, the highest frequency of the signal will be discarded by the adaptive Fourier decomposition, which represents the noise of the signal in most of the situation. A new instantaneous frequency definition for a large class of so-called simple waves is also proposed in this paper. Simple wave contains a wide range of signals for which the concept instantaneous frequency has a perfect physical sense. The α-counting instantaneous frequency can be used to compute the highest frequency for a signal. Combination of these two approaches one can obtain the IFs of the whole signal. An experiment is demonstrated the computation procedure with promising results.

Keywords: Adaptive Fourier decomposition, Fourier series, signal processing, instantaneous frequency

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Authors: Dae-ho Won, Jong-wook Hong, Yeon-Mo Yang, Jinung An

Abstract:

To reduce accidents in the industry, WSNs(Wireless Sensor networks)- sensor data is used. WSNs- sensor data has the persistence and continuity. therefore, we design and exploit the buffer management system that has the persistence and continuity to avoid and delivery data conflicts. To develop modules, we use the multi buffers and design the buffer management modules that transfer sensor data through the context-aware methods.

Keywords: safe management system, buffer management, context-aware, input data stream

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Authors: Andreas D. Jansson

Abstract:

The availability of inexpensive, yet competent hardware allows for increased level of automation and self-optimization in the context of Industry 4.0. However, such agents require high quality information about their surroundings along with a robust strategy for collision avoidance, as they may cause expensive damage to equipment or other agents otherwise. Manually defining a strategy to cover all possibilities is both time-consuming and counter-productive given the capabilities of modern hardware. This paper explores the idea of a model-free self-optimizing obstacle avoidance strategy for multiple autonomous agents in a simulated dynamic environment using the Q-learning algorithm.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, industry 4.0, multi-agent system, obstacle avoidance, Q-learning, simulation.

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Authors: Alex Hou Hong Ng, Abdul Ghani Farinda, Fock Kui Kan, Ai Ling Lim, Teo Ming Ting

Abstract:

Poverty is a multi-facet phenomenon in today’s globalised world. It is rooted in various causes and there are also multiple ways to do away with it. This paper begins with a review on the definitions and measurement of poverty and followed by discussing the various causes of poverty. This paper specifically identifies corruption, education, political instability, geographical characteristics, ineffective local governance and government policies as the causes of poverty. It then suggests possible solutions or recommendations to eradicate poverty based on the causes discussed earlier. Some of the suggestions include strengthening democratic transparency and government budget transparency, public awareness, creation of a framework for economic growth and transformation, and ways to increase the ability of the poor to raise their income.

Keywords: Economic Policy, Government Policy, Poverty Eradication, Sustainable Development.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Jia-Shen Chen, Han-Hsi Liang, Cheng-Wu Chen, Yung-Shuen Shen

Abstract:

The purpose of determining impact significance is to place value on impacts. Environmental impact assessment review is a process that judges whether impact significance is acceptable or not in accordance with the scientific facts regarding environmental, ecological and socio-economical impacts described in environmental impact statements (EIS) or environmental impact assessment reports (EIAR). The first aim of this paper is to summarize the criteria of significance evaluation from the past review results and accordingly utilize fuzzy logic to incorporate these criteria into scientific facts. The second aim is to employ data mining technique to construct an EIS or EIAR prediction model for reviewing results which can assist developers to prepare and revise better environmental management plans in advance. The validity of the previous prediction model proposed by authors in 2009 is 92.7%. The enhanced validity in this study can attain 100.0%.

Keywords: Environmental impact assessment review, impactsignificance, fuzzy logic, data mining, classification tree.

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Authors: Sanchay Vaidya, Sourabh Gupta, Gouresh Singhal

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There are various modes of transport in metro cities in India, auto-rickshaws being one of them. Auto-rickshaws provide connectivity to all the places in the city offering last mile connectivity. Among all the modes of transport the auto-rickshaw industry is the most unorganized and inefficient. Although unions exist in different cities they aren’t good enough to cope up with the upcoming advancements in the field of technology. An introduction of simple technology in this field may do wonders and help increase the revenues. This paper aims to organize this segment under a single umbrella using GPS devices and mobile phones. The paper includes surveys of about 300 auto-rickshaw drivers and 1000 plus commuters across 6 metro cities in India. Carrying out research and analysis provides a base for the development of this model and implementation of this innovative technique, which is discussed in this paper in detail with ample emphasis given on the implementation of this model.

Keywords: Auto-rickshaws, Business Model, GPS device, Mobile application.

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Authors: Prasan Pitiranggon, Nunthika Benjathepanun, Somsri Banditvilai, Veera Boonjing

Abstract:

Our study proposes an alternative method in building Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRB) from Support Vector Machine (SVM). The first set of fuzzy IF-THEN rules is obtained through an equivalence of the SVM decision network and the zero-ordered Sugeno FRB type of the Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The second set of rules is generated by combining the first set based on strength of firing signals of support vectors using Gaussian kernel. The final set of rules is then obtained from the second set through input scatter partitioning. A distinctive advantage of our method is the guarantee that the number of final fuzzy IFTHEN rules is not more than the number of support vectors in the trained SVM. The final FRB system obtained is capable of performing classification with results comparable to its SVM counterpart, but it has an advantage over the black-boxed SVM in that it may reveal human comprehensible patterns.

Keywords: Fuzzy Rule Base, Rule Extraction, Rule Generation, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Thomas Kampke

Abstract:

Equations with differentials relating to the inverse of an unknown function rather than to the unknown function itself are solved exactly for some special cases and numerically for the general case. Invertibility combined with differentiability over connected domains forces solutions always to be monotone. Numerical function inversion is key to all solution algorithms which either are of a forward type or a fixed point type considering whole approximate solution functions in each iteration. The given considerations are restricted to ordinary differential equations with inverted functions (ODEIs) of first order. Forward type computations, if applicable, admit consistency of order one and, under an additional accuracy condition, convergence of order one.

Keywords: Euler method, fixed points, golden section, multi-step procedures, Runge Kutta methods.

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Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder

Abstract:

Currently, there are few user friendly Weigh-in- Motion (WIM) data analysis softwares available which can produce traffic input data for the recently developed AASHTOWare pavement Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) design software. However, these softwares have only rudimentary Quality Control (QC) processes. Therefore, they cannot properly deal with erroneous WIM data. As the pavement performance is highly sensible to the quality of WIM data, it is highly recommended to use more refined QC process on raw WIM data to get a good result. This study develops a userfriendly software, which can produce traffic input for the ME design software. This software takes the raw data (Class and Weight data) collected from the WIM station and processes it with a sophisticated QC procedure. Traffic data such as traffic volume, traffic distribution, axle load spectra, etc. can be obtained from this software; which can directly be used in the ME design software.

Keywords: Weigh-in-motion, software, axle load spectra, traffic distribution, AASHTOWare.

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Authors: Sasiphan Nitayaprapha

Abstract:

A commercially-supported social network has become an emerging channel for an organization to communicate with and provide services to customers. The success of the commercially-supported social network depends on the ability of the organization to keep the customers in participating in the network. Drawing from the theories of information adoption, information systems continuance, and web usability, the author develops a model to explore how a commercially-supported social network can encourage customers to continue participating and using the information in the network. The theoretical model will be proved through an online survey of customers using the commercially-supported social networking sites of several high technology companies operating in the same sector. The result will be compared with previous studies to learn about the explanatory power of the research model, and to identify the main factors determining users’ intention to continue using a commercially-supported social network. Theoretical and practical implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: Social network, Information adoption, Information systems continuance, Web usability, User satisfaction.

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Authors: Amir Badkoubeh, Guchuan Zhu

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This paper addresses the problem of asymptotic tracking control of a linear parabolic partial differential equation with indomain point actuation. As the considered model is a non-standard partial differential equation, we firstly developed a map that allows transforming this problem into a standard boundary control problem to which existing infinite-dimensional system control methods can be applied. Then, a combination of energy multiplier and differential flatness methods is used to design an asymptotic tracking controller. This control scheme consists of stabilizing state-feedback derived from the energy multiplier method and feed-forward control based on the flatness property of the system. This approach represents a systematic procedure to design tracking control laws for a class of partial differential equations with in-domain point actuation. The applicability and system performance are assessed by simulation studies.

Keywords: Tracking Control, In-domain point actuation, PartialDifferential Equations.

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Authors: Yehuda Roth

Abstract:

In quantum theory, a system’s time evolution is predictable unless an observer performs measurement, as the measurement process can randomize the system. This randomness appears when the measuring device does not accurately describe the measured item, i.e., when the states characterizing the measuring device appear as a superposition of those being measured. When such a mismatch occurs, the measured data randomly collapse into a single eigenstate of the measuring device. This  scenario resembles the interpretation process in which the observer does not experience an objective reality but interprets it based on preliminary descriptions initially ingrained into his/her mind. This distinction is the motivation for the present study in which the collapse scenario is regarded as part of the interpretation process of the observer. By adopting the formalism of the quantum theory, we present a complete mathematical approach that describes the interpretation process. We demonstrate this process by applying the proposed interpretation formalism to the ambiguous image "My wife and mother-in-law" to identify whether a woman in the picture is young or old.

Keywords: Interpretation, ambiguous images, data reception, state matching, classification, determination.

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Authors: Md. Mahbubur Rahim

Abstract:

B2E portals represent a new class of web-based information technologies which many organisations are introducing in recent years to stay in touch with their distributed workforces and enable them to perform value added activities for organisations. However, actual usage of these emerging systems (measured using suitable instruments) has not been reported in the contemporary scholarly literature. We argue that many of the instruments to measure usage of various types of IT-enabled information systems are not directly applicable for B2E portals because they were developed for the context of traditional mainframe and PC-based information systems. It is therefore important to develop a new instrument for web-based portal technologies aimed at employees. In this article, we report on the development and initial qualitative evaluation of an instrument that seeks to operationaise a set of independent factors affecting the usage of portals by employees. The proposed instrument is useful to IT/e-commerce researchers and practitioners alike as it enhances their confidence in predicting employee usage of portals in organisations.

Keywords: Portal, business-to-employees, instrument, evaluation, qualitative research.

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Authors: Chih-Hung Wu, Chih-Chin Lai, Chun-Yen Chen, Yan-He Chen

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Interpretation of aerial images is an important task in various applications. Image segmentation can be viewed as the essential step for extracting information from aerial images. Among many developed segmentation methods, the technique of clustering has been extensively investigated and used. However, determining the number of clusters in an image is inherently a difficult problem, especially when a priori information on the aerial image is unavailable. This study proposes a support vector machine approach for clustering aerial images. Three cluster validity indices, distance-based index, Davies-Bouldin index, and Xie-Beni index, are utilized as quantitative measures of the quality of clustering results. Comparisons on the effectiveness of these indices and various parameters settings on the proposed methods are conducted. Experimental results are provided to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Aerial imaging, image segmentation, machine learning, support vector machine, cluster validity index

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Authors: Sae-Rom Pak, Seung Hwan Park, Jeong Ho Cho, Daewoong An, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

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It is important to predict yield in semiconductor test process in order to increase yield. In this study, yield prediction means finding out defective die, wafer or lot effectively. Semiconductor test process consists of some test steps and each test includes various test items. In other world, test data has a big and complicated characteristic. It also is disproportionably distributed as the number of data belonging to FAIL class is extremely low. For yield prediction, general data mining techniques have a limitation without any data preprocessing due to eigen properties of test data. Therefore, this study proposes an under-sampling method using support vector machine (SVM) to eliminate an imbalanced characteristic. For evaluating a performance, randomly under-sampling method is compared with the proposed method using actual semiconductor test data. As a result, sampling method using SVM is effective in generating robust model for yield prediction.

Keywords: Yield Prediction, Semiconductor Test Process, Support Vector Machine, Under Sampling

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Authors: F.Katlane, M.S.Naceur, M.A.Loghmari

Abstract:

Automatic methods of detecting changes through satellite imaging are the object of growing interest, especially beca²use of numerous applications linked to analysis of the Earth’s surface or the environment (monitoring vegetation, updating maps, risk management, etc...). This work implemented spatial analysis techniques by using images with different spatial and spectral resolutions on different dates. The work was based on the principle of control charts in order to set the upper and lower limits beyond which a change would be noted. Later, the a contrario approach was used. This was done by testing different thresholds for which the difference calculated between two pixels was significant. Finally, labeled images were considered, giving a particularly low difference which meant that the number of “false changes” could be estimated according to a given limit.

Keywords: multi-scale, a contrario approach, significantthresholds, change detection.

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

Abstract:

This study examined the mental health and behavioral problems in early adolescence with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose of the study was stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. Multiple regression models and hierarchical regression models were applied to examine the relations between the background variables and internalizing problems, and the ones between students’ performance and internalizing problems. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem; reading and social study scores could significantly predict the anxious/depressed problem. However the class as a hierarchical macro factor did not indicate the significant effect. In brief, the majority of these models represented that the background variables, behaviors and academic performance were significantly related to the anxious/depressed problem.

Keywords: Behavioral problems, anxious/depression problems, empirical-based assessment, hierarchical modeling.

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Authors: S. Jadid, S. Jalilzadeh

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In this paper, an improved technique for contingency ranking using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed approach is based on multi-layer perceptrons trained by backpropagation to contingency analysis. Severity indices in dynamic stability assessment are presented. These indices are based on the concept of coherency and three dot products of the system variables. It is well known that some indices work better than others for a particular power system. This paper along with test results using several different systems, demonstrates that combination of indices with ANN provides better ranking than a single index. The presented results are obtained through the use of power system simulation (PSS/E) and MATLAB 6.5 software.

Keywords: composite indices, transient stability, neural network.

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Authors: Nurcan Tuncbag, Turkan Haliloglu, Ozlem Keskin

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Understanding the cell's large-scale organization is an interesting task in computational biology. Thus, protein-protein interactions can reveal important organization and function of the cell. Here, we investigated the correspondence between protein interactions and function for the yeast. We obtained the correlations among the set of proteins. Then these correlations are clustered using both the hierarchical and biclustering methods. The detailed analyses of proteins in each cluster were carried out by making use of their functional annotations. As a result, we found that some functional classes appear together in almost all biclusters. On the other hand, in hierarchical clustering, the dominancy of one functional class is observed. In the light of the clustering data, we have verified some interactions which were not identified as core interactions in DIP and also, we have characterized some functionally unknown proteins according to the interaction data and functional correlation. In brief, from interaction data to function, some correlated results are noticed about the relationship between interaction and function which might give clues about the organization of the proteins, also to predict new interactions and to characterize functions of unknown proteins.

Keywords: Pair-wise protein interactions, DIP database, functional correlations, biclustering.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

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This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H∞ filter for a class of uncertain fuzzy descriptor systems described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems to have an H∞ performance are derived. To alleviate the ill-conditioning resulting from the interaction of slow and fast dynamic modes, solutions to the problem are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which are independent of the singular perturbation ε, when ε is sufficiently small. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: H∞ control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), Descriptor systems.

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Authors: B. Bagheri Nakhjavanlo, T. J. Ellis, P. Raoofi, J. Dehmeshki

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This paper presents a customized deformable model for the segmentation of abdominal and thoracic aortic aneurysms in CTA datasets. An important challenge in reliably detecting aortic aneurysm is the need to overcome problems associated with intensity inhomogeneities and image noise. Level sets are part of an important class of methods that utilize partial differential equations (PDEs) and have been extensively applied in image segmentation. A Gaussian kernel function in the level set formulation, which extracts the local intensity information, aids the suppression of noise in the extracted regions of interest and then guides the motion of the evolving contour for the detection of weak boundaries. The speed of curve evolution has been significantly improved with a resulting decrease in segmentation time compared with previous implementations of level sets. The results indicate the method is more effective than other approaches in coping with intensity inhomogeneities.

Keywords: Abdominal and thoracic aortic aneurysms, intensityinhomogeneity, level sets, local fitting binary.

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Authors: Nor-Edine Abriak, Mahfoud Benzerzour, Mouhamadou Amar, Abdeljalil Zri

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In this work, firstly we have studied the potential of raw sediments and sediments treated with lime or cement for use in a foundation layer and the base layer of a roadway. Secondly, we have examined mineral changes caused by the addition of lime or cement in order to explain the mechanical performance of stabilized sediments. After determining the amount of lime and cement required stabilizing the sediments, the compaction characteristics and Immediate Bearing Capacity (IBI) were studied using the Modified Proctor method. Then, the evolution of the three parameters, which are optimum water content, maximum dry density and IBI, were determined. Mechanical performances can be evaluated through resistance to compression, resistance under traction and the elasticity modulus. The resistances of the formulations treated with ROLAC®645 increase with the amount of ROLAC®645. Traction resistance and the elastic modulus were used to evaluate the potential of the formulations as road construction materials using the classification diagram. The results show that all the other formulations with ROLAC®645 can be used in subgrades and foundation layers for roads.

Keywords: Sediment, lime, cement, roadway.

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Authors: Ong Sing Goh, C. Ardil, Wilson Wong, Chun Che Fung

Abstract:

The evaluation of conversational agents or chatterbots question answering systems is a major research area that needs much attention. Before the rise of domain-oriented conversational agents based on natural language understanding and reasoning, evaluation is never a problem as information retrieval-based metrics are readily available for use. However, when chatterbots began to become more domain specific, evaluation becomes a real issue. This is especially true when understanding and reasoning is required to cater for a wider variety of questions and at the same time to achieve high quality responses. This paper discusses the inappropriateness of the existing measures for response quality evaluation and the call for new standard measures and related considerations are brought forward. As a short-term solution for evaluating response quality of conversational agents, and to demonstrate the challenges in evaluating systems of different nature, this research proposes a blackbox approach using observation, classification scheme and a scoring mechanism to assess and rank three example systems, AnswerBus, START and AINI.

Keywords: Evaluation, conversational agents, Response Quality, chatterbots

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Osman, Mohd Aizaini Maarof, Mohd Foad Rohani

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Human skin detection recognized as the primary step in most of the applications such as face detection, illicit image filtering, hand recognition and video surveillance. The performance of any skin detection applications greatly relies on the two components: feature extraction and classification method. Skin color is the most vital information used for skin detection purpose. However, color feature alone sometimes could not handle images with having same color distribution with skin color. A color feature of pixel-based does not eliminate the skin-like color due to the intensity of skin and skin-like color fall under the same distribution. Hence, the statistical color analysis will be exploited such mean and standard deviation as an additional feature to increase the reliability of skin detector. In this paper, we studied the effectiveness of statistical color feature for human skin detection. Furthermore, the paper analyzed the integrated color and texture using eight classifiers with three color spaces of RGB, YCbCr, and HSV. The experimental results show that the integrating statistical feature using Random Forest classifier achieved a significant performance with an F1-score 0.969.

Keywords: Color space, neural network, random forest, skin detection, statistical feature.

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Authors: Pierre Parrend, Stephane Frenot

Abstract:

Providing Services at Home has become over the last few years a very dynamic and promising technological domain. It is likely to enable wide dissemination of secure and automated living environments. We propose a methodology for identifying threats to Services at Home Delivery systems, as well as a threat analysis of a multi-provider Home Gateway architecture. This methodology is based on a dichotomous positive/preventive study of the target system: it aims at identifying both what the system must do, and what it must not do. This approach completes existing methods with a synthetic view of potential security flaws, thus enabling suitable measures to be taken into account. Security implications of the evolution of a given system become easier to deal with. A prototype is built based on the conclusions of this analysis.

Keywords: Security requirements, Connected Home, OSGi, Sofware Components.

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Authors: Khairullah Khan, Baharum B. Baharudin, Aurangzeb Khan, Fazal_e_Malik

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Opinion extraction about products from customer reviews is becoming an interesting area of research. Customer reviews about products are nowadays available from blogs and review sites. Also tools are being developed for extraction of opinion from these reviews to help the user as well merchants to track the most suitable choice of product. Therefore efficient method and techniques are needed to extract opinions from review and blogs. As reviews of products mostly contains discussion about the features, functions and services, therefore, efficient techniques are required to extract user comments about the desired features, functions and services. In this paper we have proposed a novel idea to find features of product from user review in an efficient way. Our focus in this paper is to get the features and opinion-oriented words about products from text through auxiliary verbs (AV) {is, was, are, were, has, have, had}. From the results of our experiments we found that 82% of features and 85% of opinion-oriented sentences include AVs. Thus these AVs are good indicators of features and opinion orientation in customer reviews.

Keywords: Classification, Customer Reviews, Helping Verbs, Opinion Mining.

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Authors: Mehdi Shami Zanjani, Shohreh Mehrasa, Mandana Modiri

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In the current economy of increasing global competition, many organizations are attempting to use knowledge as one of the means to gain sustainable competitive advantage. Besides large organizations, the success of SMEs can be linked to how well they manage their knowledge. Despite the profusion of research about knowledge management within large organizations, fewer studies tried to analyze KM in SMEs. This research proposes a new framework showing the determinant role of organizational dimensions onto KM approaches. The paper and its propositions are based on a literature review and analysis. In this research, personalization versus codification, individualization versus institutionalization and IT-based versus non IT-based are highlighted as three distinct dimensions of knowledge management approaches. The study contributes to research by providing a more nuanced classification of KM approaches and provides guidance to managers about the types of KM approaches that should be adopted based on the size, geographical dispersion and task nature of SMEs. To the author-s knowledge, the paper is the first of its kind to examine if there are suitable configurations of KM approaches for SMEs with different dimensions. It gives valuable information, which hopefully will help SME sector to accomplish KM.

Keywords: Knowledge Management, Knowledge Management Approach, SME, Organizational Dimension.

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Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

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Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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Authors: M. Mohamadi, M. Mostamand, M. Moosavi, M. Soltanolkotabi

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The output beam quality of multi transverse modes of laser, are relatively poor. In order to obtain better beam quality, one may use an aperture inside the laser resonator. In this case, various transverse modes can be selected. We have selected various transverse modes both by simulation and doing experiment. By inserting a circular aperture inside the diode end-pumped Nd:YAG pulsed laser resonator, we have obtained 00 TEM , 01 TEM , 20 TEM and have studied which parameters, can change the mode shape. Then, we have determined the beam quality factor of TEM00 gaussian mode.

Keywords: Beam shape, Transverse mode , Beam quality factor

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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