Search results for: predictive modeling

Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

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Authors: Yunseok Noh, Chang-Uk Kwak, Sun-Joong Kim, Seong-Bae Park

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Scripts are one of the basic text resources to understand broadcasting contents. Topic modeling is the method to get the summary of the broadcasting contents from its scripts. Generally, scripts represent contents descriptively with directions and speeches, and provide scene segments that can be seen as semantic units. Therefore, a script can be topic modeled by treating a scene segment as a document. Because scene segments consist of speeches mainly, however, relatively small co-occurrences among words in the scene segments are observed. This causes inevitably the bad quality of topics by statistical learning method. To tackle this problem, we propose a method to improve topic quality with additional word co-occurrence information obtained using scene similarities. The main idea of improving topic quality is that the information that two or more texts are topically related can be useful to learn high quality of topics. In addition, more accurate topical representations lead to get information more accurate whether two texts are related or not. In this paper, we regard two scene segments are related if their topical similarity is high enough. We also consider that words are co-occurred if they are in topically related scene segments together. By iteratively inferring topics and determining semantically neighborhood scene segments, we draw a topic space represents broadcasting contents well. In the experiments, we showed the proposed method generates a higher quality of topics from Korean drama scripts than the baselines.

Keywords: Broadcasting contents, generalized P´olya urn model, scripts, text similarity, topic model.

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Authors: S. A. Moeini, M. T.Ahmadian

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Structural behavior of ring stiffened thick walled cylinders made of functionally graded materials (FGMs) is investigated in this paper. Functionally graded materials are inhomogeneous composites which are usually made from a mixture of metal and ceramic. The gradient compositional variation of the constituents from one surface to the other provides an elegant solution to the problem of high transverse shear stresses that are induced when two dissimilar materials with large differences in material properties are bonded. FGM formation of the cylinder is modeled by power-law exponent and the variation of characteristics is supposed to be in radial direction. A finite element formulation is derived for the analysis. According to the property variation of the constituent materials in the radial direction of the wall, it is not convenient to use conventional elements to model and analyze the structure of the stiffened FGM cylinders. In this paper a new cylindrical super-element is used to model the finite element formulation and analyze the static and modal behavior of stiffened FGM thick walled cylinders. By using this super-element the number of elements, which are needed for modeling, will reduce significantly and the process time is less in comparison with conventional finite element formulations. Results for static and modal analysis are evaluated and verified by comparison to finite element formulation with conventional elements. Comparison indicates a good conformity between results.

Keywords: FGMs, Modal analysis, Static analysis, Stiffened cylinders.

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Authors: Anshu Manik, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha K. Khaitan

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Rutting is one of the major load-related distresses in airport flexible pavements. Rutting in paving materials develop gradually with an increasing number of load applications, usually appearing as longitudinal depressions in the wheel paths and it may be accompanied by small upheavals to the sides. Significant research has been conducted to determine the factors which affect rutting and how they can be controlled. Using the experimental design concepts, a series of tests can be conducted while varying levels of different parameters, which could be the cause for rutting in airport flexible pavements. If proper experimental design is done, the results obtained from these tests can give a better insight into the causes of rutting and the presence of interactions and synergisms among the system variables which have influence on rutting. Although traditionally, laboratory experiments are conducted in a controlled fashion to understand the statistical interaction of variables in such situations, this study is an attempt to identify the critical system variables influencing airport flexible pavement rut depth from a statistical DoE perspective using real field data from a full-scale test facility. The test results do strongly indicate that the response (rut depth) has too much noise in it and it would not allow determination of a good model. From a statistical DoE perspective, two major changes proposed for this experiment are: (1) actual replication of the tests is definitely required, (2) nuisance variables need to be identified and blocked properly. Further investigation is necessary to determine possible sources of noise in the experiment.

Keywords: Airport Pavement, Design of Experiments, Rutting, NAPTF.

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Authors: Mahawish Masud, Muhammad Iqbal, M. U. Khan, Farooque Azam

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Manual writing of test cases from functional requirements is a time-consuming task. Such test cases are not only difficult to write but are also challenging to maintain. Test cases can be drawn from the functional requirements that are expressed in natural language. However, manual test case generation is inefficient and subject to errors.  In this paper, we have presented a systematic procedure that could automatically derive test cases from user stories. The user stories are specified in a restricted natural language using a well-defined template.  We have also presented a detailed methodology for writing our test ready user stories. Our tool “Test-o-Matic” automatically generates the test cases by processing the restricted user stories. The generated test cases are executed by using open source Selenium IDE.  We evaluate our approach on a case study, which is an open source web based application. Effectiveness of our approach is evaluated by seeding faults in the open source case study using known mutation operators.  Results show that the test case generation from restricted user stories is a viable approach for automated testing of web applications.

Keywords: Automated testing, natural language, user story modeling, software engineering, software testing, test case specification, transformation and automation, user story, web application testing.

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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Authors: Trevor E. Davis, Isaac Cassar, Yi-Kai Lo, Wentai Liu

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This study models the use of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation on skin with a disk electrode in order to simulate tissue damage. The current density distribution above a disk electrode is known to be a dynamic and non-uniform quantity that is intensified at the edges of the disk. The non-uniformity is subject to change through using various electrode geometries or stimulation methods. One of these methods known as edge-retarded stimulation has shown to reduce this edge enhancement. Though progress has been made in modeling the behavior of a disk electrode, little has been done to test the validity of these models in simulating the actual heat transfer from the electrode. This simulation uses finite element software to couple the injection of current from a disk electrode to heat transfer described by the Pennesbioheat transfer equation. An example application of this model is studying an experimental form of stimulation, known as edge-retarded stimulation. The edge-retarded stimulation method will reduce the current density at the edges of the electrode. It is hypothesized that reducing the current density edge enhancement effect will, in turn, reduce temperature change and tissue damage at the edges of these electrodes. This study tests this hypothesis as a demonstration of the capabilities of this model. The edge-retarded stimulation proved to be safer after this simulation. It is shown that temperature change and the fraction of tissue necrosis is much greater in the square wave stimulation. These results bring implications for changes of procedures in transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and transcutaneous spinal cord stimulation as well.

Keywords: Bioheat transfer, Electrode, Neuroprosthetics, TENS, Transcutaneous stimulation.

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Authors: Syed Salman Ahmed, Zahid Halim, Rauf Baig, Shariq Bashir

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With the rapid growth in business size, today's businesses orient towards electronic technologies. Amazon.com and e-bay.com are some of the major stakeholders in this regard. Unfortunately the enormous size and hugely unstructured data on the web, even for a single commodity, has become a cause of ambiguity for consumers. Extracting valuable information from such an everincreasing data is an extremely tedious task and is fast becoming critical towards the success of businesses. Web content mining can play a major role in solving these issues. It involves using efficient algorithmic techniques to search and retrieve the desired information from a seemingly impossible to search unstructured data on the Internet. Application of web content mining can be very encouraging in the areas of Customer Relations Modeling, billing records, logistics investigations, product cataloguing and quality management. In this paper we present a review of some very interesting, efficient yet implementable techniques from the field of web content mining and study their impact in the area specific to business user needs focusing both on the customer as well as the producer. The techniques we would be reviewing include, mining by developing a knowledge-base repository of the domain, iterative refinement of user queries for personalized search, using a graphbased approach for the development of a web-crawler and filtering information for personalized search using website captions. These techniques have been analyzed and compared on the basis of their execution time and relevance of the result they produced against a particular search.

Keywords: Data mining, web mining, search engines, knowledge discovery.

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Authors: Eduardo N. Velloso, Fernando M. N. Dantas, Luciano S. Barros

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A common complaint from power system analysis students lies in the overly complex tools they need to learn and use just to simulate very basic systems or just to check the answers to power system calculations. The most basic power system studies are power-flow solutions and short-circuit calculations. This paper presents a simple tool with an intuitive interface to perform both these studies and assess its performance in comparison with existent commercial solutions. With this in mind, Elegant is a pure Python software tool for learning power system analysis developed for undergraduate and graduate students. It solves the power-flow problem by iterative numerical methods and calculates bolted short-circuit fault currents by modeling the network in the domain of symmetrical components. Elegant can be used with a user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI) and automatically generates human-readable reports of the simulation results. The tool is exemplified using a typical Brazilian regional system with 18 buses. This study performs a comparative experiment with 1 undergraduate and 4 graduate students who attempted the same problem using both Elegant and a commercial tool. It was found that Elegant significantly reduces the time and labor involved in basic power system simulations while still providing some insights into real power system designs.

Keywords: Free- and open-source software, power-flow, power system analysis, Python, short-circuit.

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Authors: Waralak Vongdoiwang Siricharoen

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One of object oriented software developing problem is the difficulty of searching the appropriate and suitable objects for starting the system. In this work, ontologies appear in the part of supporting the object discovering in the initial of object oriented software developing. There are many researches try to demonstrate that there is a great potential between object model and ontologies. Constructing ontology from object model is called ontology engineering can be done; On the other hand, this research is aiming to support the idea of building object model from ontology is also promising and practical. Ontology classes are available online in any specific areas, which can be searched by semantic search engine. There are also many helping tools to do so; one of them which are used in this research is Protégé ontology editor and Visual Paradigm. To put them together give a great outcome. This research will be shown how it works efficiently with the real case study by using ontology classes in travel/tourism domain area. It needs to combine classes, properties, and relationships from more than two ontologies in order to generate the object model. In this paper presents a simple methodology framework which explains the process of discovering objects. The results show that this framework has great value while there is possible for expansion. Reusing of existing ontologies offers a much cheaper alternative than building new ones from scratch. More ontologies are becoming available on the web, and online ontologies libraries for storing and indexing ontologies are increasing in number and demand. Semantic and Ontologies search engines have also started to appear, to facilitate search and retrieval of online ontologies.

Keywords: Software Developing, Ontology, Ontology Library, Artificial Intelligent, Protégé, Object Model.

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Authors: M. M. Rahman, Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, K. Kadirgama M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar

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This paper deals optimized model to investigate the effects of peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time in EDM performance on material removal rate of titanium alloy utilizing copper tungsten as electrode and positive polarity of the electrode. The experiments are carried out on Ti6Al4V. Experiments were conducted by varying the peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time. A mathematical model is developed to correlate the influences of these variables and material removal rate of workpiece. Design of experiments (DOE) method and response surface methodology (RSM) techniques are implemented. The validity test of the fit and adequacy of the proposed models has been carried out through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The obtained results evidence that as the material removal rate increases as peak current and pulse on time increases. The effect of pulse off time on MRR changes with peak ampere. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are verified and compared. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are estimated and verified with proposed optimized results. It is observed that the developed model is within the limits of the agreeable error (about 4%) when compared to experimental results. This result leads to desirable material removal rate and economical industrial machining to optimize the input parameters.

Keywords: Ti-6Al-4V, material removal rate, copper tungsten, positive polarity, RSM.

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Authors: E. M. Hassan, A. L. Kalamkarov

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Two micromechanical models for 3D smart composite with embedded periodic or nearly periodic network of generally orthotropic reinforcements and actuators are developed and applied to cubic structures with unidirectional orientation of constituents. Analytical formulas for the effective piezothermoelastic coefficients are derived using the Asymptotic Homogenization Method (AHM). Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is subsequently developed and used to examine the aforementioned periodic 3D network reinforced smart structures. The deformation responses from the FE simulations are used to extract effective coefficients. The results from both techniques are compared. This work considers piezoelectric materials that respond linearly to changes in electric field, electric displacement, mechanical stress and strain and thermal effects. This combination of electric fields and thermo-mechanical response in smart composite structures is characterized by piezoelectric and thermal expansion coefficients. The problem is represented by unitcell and the models are developed using the AHM and the FEA to determine the effective piezoelectric and thermal expansion coefficients. Each unit cell contains a number of orthotropic inclusions in the form of structural reinforcements and actuators. Using matrix representation of the coupled response of the unit cell, the effective piezoelectric and thermal expansion coefficients are calculated and compared with results of the asymptotic homogenization method. A very good agreement is shown between these two approaches.

Keywords: Asymptotic Homogenization Method, Effective Piezothermoelastic Coefficients, Finite Element Analysis, 3D Smart Network Composite Structures.

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Authors: Ahmet Taşan, Süha Tirkeş, Yavuz Öztürk, Zafer Bingül

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Friction stir welding (FSW) is a joining process in the solid state, which eliminates problems associated with the material melting and solidification, such as cracks, residual stresses and distortions generated during conventional welding. Among the most important advantages of FSW are; easy automation, less distortion, lower residual stress and good mechanical properties in the joining region. FSW is a recent approach to metal joining and although originally intended for aluminum alloys, it is investigated in a variety of metallic materials. The basic concept of FSW is a rotating tool, made of non-consumable material, specially designed with a geometry consisting of a pin and a recess (shoulder). This tool is inserted as spinning on its axis at the adjoining edges of two sheets or plates to be joined and then it travels along the joining path line. The tool rotation axis defines an angle of inclination with which the components to be welded. This angle is used for receiving the material to be processed at the tool base and to promote the gradual forge effect imposed by the shoulder during the passage of the tool. This prevents the material plastic flow at the tool lateral, ensuring weld closure on the back of the pin. In this study, two 4 mm Kevlar^® plates which were produced with the Kevlar^® fabrics, are analyzed with COMSOL Multiphysics in order to investigate the weldability via FSW. Thereafter, some experimental investigation is done with an appropriate workbench in order to compare them with the analysis results.

Keywords: Analytical modeling, composite materials welding, friction stir welding, heat generation.

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin

Abstract:

This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10- pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping, even though included water from the natural river and released flow from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013. Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3 proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011. Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.

Keywords: HEC-RAS, HMS, pumping stations, cascade weirs.

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Authors: Oriyomi M. Okeyinka, David A. Oloke, Jamal M. Khatib

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Large quantities of solid wastes being generated worldwide from sources such as household, domestic, industrial, commercial and construction demolition activities, leads to environmental concerns. Utilization of these wastes in making building construction materials can reduce the magnitude of the associated problems. When these waste products are used in place of other conventional materials, natural resources and energy are preserved and expensive and/or potentially harmful waste disposal is avoided. Recycling which is regarded as the third most preferred waste disposal option, with its numerous environmental benefits, stand as a viable option to offset the environmental impact associated with the construction industry. This paper reviews the results of laboratory tests and important research findings, and the potential of using these wastes in building construction materials with focus on sustainable development. Research gaps, which includes; the need to develop standard mix design for solid waste based building materials; the need to develop energy efficient method of processing solid waste use in concrete; the need to study the actual behavior or performance of such building materials in practical application and the limited real life application of such building materials have also been identified. A research is being proposed to develop an environmentally friendly, lightweight building block from recycled waste paper, without the use of cement, and with properties suitable for use as walling unit. This proposed research intends to incorporate, laboratory experimentation and modeling to address the identified research gaps.

Keywords: Recycling, solid waste, construction, building materials.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Giulia Simioni, Ernesto Benini

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This paper presents a model for the evaluation of energy performance and aerodynamic forces acting on a three-bladed small vertical axis Darrieus wind turbine depending on blade chord curvature with respect to rotor axis. The adopted survey methodology is based on an analytical code coupled to a solid modeling software, capable of generating the desired blade geometry depending on the blade design geometric parameters, which is linked to a finite volume CFD code for the calculation of rotor performance. After describing and validating the model with experimental data, the results of numerical simulations are proposed on the bases of two different blade profile architectures, which are respectively characterized by a straight chord and by a curved one, having a chord radius equal to rotor external circumference. A CFD campaign of analysis is completed for three blade-candidate airfoil sections, that is the recently-developed DU 06-W-200 cambered blade profile, a classical symmetrical NACA 0021 and its derived cambered airfoil, characterized by a curved chord, having a chord radius equal to rotor external circumference. The effects of blade chord curvature on angle of attack, blade tangential and normal forces are first investigated and then the overall rotor torque and power are analyzed as a function of blade azimuthal position, achieving a numerical quantification of the influence of blade camber on overall rotor performance.

Keywords: VAWT, NACA 0021, DU 06-W-200, cambered airfoil

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Authors: Christopher Paterson, Richard Curry, Alan Purvis, Simon Johnson

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Emerging Bio-engineering fields such as Brain Computer Interfaces, neuroprothesis devices and modeling and simulation of neural networks have led to increased research activity in algorithms for the detection, isolation and classification of Action Potentials (AP) from noisy data trains. Current techniques in the field of 'unsupervised no-prior knowledge' biosignal processing include energy operators, wavelet detection and adaptive thresholding. These tend to bias towards larger AP waveforms, AP may be missed due to deviations in spike shape and frequency and correlated noise spectrums can cause false detection. Also, such algorithms tend to suffer from large computational expense. A new signal detection technique based upon the ideas of phasespace diagrams and trajectories is proposed based upon the use of a delayed copy of the AP to highlight discontinuities relative to background noise. This idea has been used to create algorithms that are computationally inexpensive and address the above problems. Distinct AP have been picked out and manually classified from real physiological data recorded from a cockroach. To facilitate testing of the new technique, an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) noise model has been constructed bases upon background noise of the recordings. Along with the AP classification means this model enables generation of realistic neuronal data sets at arbitrary signal to noise ratio (SNR).

Keywords: Action potential detection, Low SNR, Phase spacediagrams/trajectories, Unsupervised/no-prior knowledge.

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Authors: Migbar Assefa

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The performance of a machine tool is eventually assessed by its ability to produce a component of the required geometry in minimum time and at small operating cost. It is customary to base the structural design of any machine tool primarily upon the requirements of static rigidity and minimum natural frequency of vibration. The operating properties of machines like cutting speed, feed and depth of cut as well as the size of the work piece also have to be kept in mind by a machine tool structural designer. This paper presents a novel approach to the design of machine tool column for static and dynamic rigidity requirement. Model evaluation is done effectively through use of General Finite Element Analysis software ANSYS. Studies on machine tool column are used to illustrate finite element based concept evaluation technique. This paper also presents results obtained from the computations of thin walled box type columns that are subjected to torsional and bending loads in case of static analysis and also results from modal analysis. The columns analyzed are square and rectangle based tapered open column, column with cover plate, horizontal partitions and with apertures. For the analysis purpose a total of 70 columns were analyzed for bending, torsional and modal analysis. In this study it is observed that the orientation and aspect ratio of apertures have no significant effect on the static and dynamic rigidity of the machine tool structure.

Keywords: Finite Element Modeling, Modal Analysis, Machine tool structure, Static Analysis.

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Authors: Azadeh Yazdi, Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Amirmasoud Hamedi

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Cavitation inside diesel injector nozzle is investigated using Reynolds-Stress-Navier stokes equations. Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model is used for modeling cavitation inside diesel injector nozzle. The carrying fluid utilized in the current study is diesel fuel. The flow is verified at the beginning by comparing with the previous experimental data and it was found that K-Epsilon turbulent model could lead to a better accuracy comparing to K-Omega turbulent model. Moreover, mass flow rate obtained numerically is compared with the experimental value and discrepancy was found to be less than 5% - which shows the accuracy of the current results. Finally, a real-size four-hole nozzle is investigated and the flow inside it is visualized based on velocity profile, discharge coefficient and cavitation number. It was found that the mesh density could be reduced significantly by utilizing periodic boundary condition. Velocity contour at the mid nozzle showed that maximum value of velocity occurs at the end of the needle before entering the orifice area. Last but not least, at the same boundary conditions, when different needle heights were utilized, it was found that as needle height increases with an increase in cavitation number, discharge coefficient increases, while the mentioned increases is more tangible at smaller values of needle heights.

Keywords: cavitation, diesel fuel, CFD, real size nozzle, mass flow rate

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, T. Ichikawa, P. Mekpruksawong

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This research was conducted in the Lower Namkam Irrigation Project situated in the Namkam River Basin in Thailand. Degradation of groundwater quality in some areas is caused by saline soil spots beneath ground surface. However, the tail regulated gate structure on the Namkam River, a lateral stream of the Mekong River. It is aimed for maintaining water level in the river at +137.5 to +138.5 m (MSL) and flow to the irrigation canals based on a gravity system since July 2009. It might leach some saline soil spots from underground to soil surface if lack of understanding of the conjunctive surface water and groundwater behaviors. This research has been conducted by continuously the observing of both shallow and deep groundwater level and quality from existing observation wells. The simulation of surface water was carried out using a hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) to compute the ungauged side flow catchments as the lateral flows for the river system model (HEC-RAS). The constant water levels in the upstream of the operated gate caused a slight rising up of shallow groundwater level when compared to the water table. However, the groundwater levels in the confined aquifers remained less impacted than in the shallow aquifers but groundwater levels in late of wet season in some wells were higher than the phreatic surface. This causes salinization of the groundwater at the soil surface and might affect some crops. This research aims for the balance of water stage in the river and efficient groundwater utilization in this area.

Keywords: Surface water, groundwater observation, irrigation, water balance.

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Authors: E.Sasikumar, T.Viruthagiri

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Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) of sugarcane bagasse by cellulase and Pachysolen tannophilus MTCC *1077 were investigated in the present study. Important process variables for ethanol production form pretreated bagasse were optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on central composite design (CCD) experiments. A 23 five level CCD experiments with central and axial points was used to develop a statistical model for the optimization of process variables such as incubation temperature (25–45°) X1, pH (5.0–7.0) X2 and fermentation time (24–120 h) X3. Data obtained from RSM on ethanol production were subjected to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analyzed using a second order polynomial equation and contour plots were used to study the interactions among three relevant variables of the fermentation process. The fermentation experiments were carried out using an online monitored modular fermenter 2L capacity. The processing parameters setup for reaching a maximum response for ethanol production was obtained when applying the optimum values for temperature (32°C), pH (5.6) and fermentation time (110 h). Maximum ethanol concentration (3.36 g/l) was obtained from 50 g/l pretreated sugarcane bagasse at the optimized process conditions in aerobic batch fermentation. Kinetic models such as Monod, Modified Logistic model, Modified Logistic incorporated Leudeking – Piret model and Modified Logistic incorporated Modified Leudeking – Piret model have been evaluated and the constants were predicted.

Keywords: Sugarcane bagasse, ethanol, optimization, Pachysolen tannophilus.

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Authors: Pedro Llanos, Diego García

Abstract:

This paper is addressed to expanding our understanding of the effects of hypoxia training on our bodies to better model its dynamics and leverage some of its implications and effects on human health. Hypoxia training is a recommended practice for military and civilian pilots that allow them to recognize their early hypoxia signs and symptoms, and Scientist Astronaut Candidates (SACs) who underwent hypobaric hypoxia (HH) exposure as part of a training activity for prospective suborbital flight applications. This observational-analytical study describes physiologic responses and symptoms experienced by a SAC group before, during and after HH exposure and proposes a model for assessing predicted versus observed physiological responses. A group of individuals with diverse Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) backgrounds conducted a hypobaric training session to an altitude up to 22,000 ft (FL220) or 6,705 meters, where heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR) and core temperature (Tc) were monitored with the use of a chest strap sensor pre and post HH exposure. A pulse oximeter registered levels of saturation of oxygen (SpO₂), number and duration of desaturations during the HH chamber flight. Hypoxia symptoms as described by the SACs during the HH training session were also registered. This data allowed to generate a preliminary predictive model of the oxygen desaturation and O₂ pressure curve for each subject, which consists of a sixth-order polynomial fit during exposure, and a fifth or fourth-order polynomial fit during recovery. Data analysis showed that HR and BR showed no significant differences between pre and post HH exposure in most of the SACs, while Tc measures showed slight but consistent decrement changes. All subjects registered SpO₂ greater than 94% for the majority of their individual HH exposures, but all of them presented at least one clinically significant desaturation (SpO₂ < 85% for more than 5 seconds) and half of the individuals showed SpO₂ below 87% for at least 30% of their HH exposure time. Finally, real time collection of HH symptoms presented temperature somatosensory perceptions (SP) for 65% of individuals, and task-focus issues for 52.5% of individuals as the most common HH indications. 95% of the subjects experienced HH onset symptoms below FL180; all participants achieved full recovery of HH symptoms within 1 minute of donning their O₂ mask. The current HH study performed on this group of individuals suggests a rapid and fully reversible physiologic response after HH exposure as expected and obtained in previous studies. Our data showed consistent results between predicted versus observed SpO₂ curves during HH suggesting a mathematical function that may be used to model HH performance deficiencies. During the HH study, real-time HH symptoms were registered providing evidenced SP and task focusing as the earliest and most common indicators. Finally, an assessment of HH signs of symptoms in a group of heterogeneous, non-pilot individuals showed similar results to previous studies in homogeneous populations of pilots.

Keywords: Altitude sickness, cabin pressure, hypobaric chamber training, symptoms and altitude, slow onset hypoxia.

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Authors: Hossam el-ddin Mostafa, Pavel Čičak

Abstract:

IETF RFC 2002 originally introduced the wireless Mobile-IP protocol to support portable IP addresses for mobile devices that often change their network access points to the Internet. The inefficiency of this protocol mainly within the handoff management produces large end-to-end packet delays, during registration process, and further degrades the system efficiency due to packet losses between subnets. The criterion to initiate a simple and fast full-duplex connection between the home agent and foreign agent, to reduce the roaming duration, is a very important issue to be considered by a work in this paper. State-transition Petri-Nets of the modeling scenario-based CIA: communication inter-agents procedure as an extension to the basic Mobile-IP registration process was designed and manipulated. The heuristic of configuration file during practical Setup session for registration parameters, on Cisco platform Router-1760 using IOS 12.3 (15)T is created. Finally, stand-alone performance simulations results from Simulink Matlab, within each subnet and also between subnets, are illustrated for reporting better end-to-end packet delays. Results verified the effectiveness of our Mathcad analytical manipulation and experimental implementation. It showed lower values of end-to-end packet delay for Mobile-IP using CIA procedure. Furthermore, it reported packets flow between subnets to improve packet losses between subnets.

Keywords: Cisco configuration, handoff, packet delay, Petri-Nets, registration process, Simulink.

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

Abstract:

Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km², is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R², which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period between 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT, Water Yield, Watershed level.

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, M. A. Badr, A. S. Elgendy, K. O. Shawky, P. K. Jain

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates an improved Loss Model Control (LMC) for a 3-phase induction motor (IM) driving pump load. Compared with other power loss reduction algorithms for IM, the presented one has the advantages of fast and smooth flux adaptation, high accuracy, and versatile implementation. The performance of LMC depends mainly on the accuracy of modeling the motor drive and losses. A loss-model for IM drive that considers the surplus power loss caused by inverter voltage harmonics using closed-form equations and also includes the magnetic saturation has been developed. Further, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) controller is synthesized and trained offline to determine the optimal flux level that achieves maximum drive efficiency. The drive’s voltage and speed control loops are connecting via the stator frequency to avoid the possibility of excessive magnetization. Besides, the resistance change due to temperature is considered by a first-order thermal model. The obtained thermal information enhances motor protection and control. These together have the potential of making the proposed algorithm reliable. Simulation and experimental studies are performed on 5.5 kW test motor using the proposed control method. The test results are provided and compared with the fixed flux operation to validate the effectiveness.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, ANN, efficiency optimization, induction motor, IM, Pulse Width Modulated, PWM, harmonic losses.

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Authors: K. T. Huynh, I. Gibson, W. F. Lu, B. N. Jagdish

Abstract:

In this paper, the construction of a detailed spine model is presented using the LifeMOD Biomechanics Modeler. The detailed spine model is obtained by refining spine segments in cervical, thoracic and lumbar regions into individual vertebra segments, using bushing elements representing the intervertebral discs, and building various ligamentous soft tissues between vertebrae. In the sagittal plane of the spine, constant force will be applied from the posterior to anterior during simulation to determine dynamic characteristics of the spine. The force magnitude is gradually increased in subsequent simulations. Based on these recorded dynamic properties, graphs of displacement-force relationships will be established in terms of polynomial functions by using the least-squares method and imported into a haptic integrated graphic environment. A thoracolumbar spine model with complex geometry of vertebrae, which is digitized from a resin spine prototype, will be utilized in this environment. By using the haptic technique, surgeons can touch as well as apply forces to the spine model through haptic devices to observe the locomotion of the spine which is computed from the displacement-force relationship graphs. This current study provides a preliminary picture of our ongoing work towards building and simulating bio-fidelity scoliotic spine models in a haptic integrated graphic environment whose dynamic properties are obtained from LifeMOD. These models can be helpful for surgeons to examine kinematic behaviors of scoliotic spines and to propose possible surgical plans before spine correction operations.

Keywords: Haptic interface, LifeMOD, spine modeling.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Saeid Eshghi, Neeraj Saxena, Abdulmajeed Alsultan

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Carbon dioxide (CO₂) alongside other gas emissions in the atmosphere cause a greenhouse effect, resulting in an increase of the average temperature of the planet. Transportation vehicles are among the main contributors of CO₂ emission. Stationary vehicles with initiated motors produce more emissions than mobile ones. Intersections with traffic lights that force the vehicles to become stationary for a period of time produce more CO₂ pollution than other parts of the road. This paper focuses on analyzing the CO₂ produced by the traffic flow at Anzac Parade Road - Barker Street intersection in Sydney, Australia, before and after the implementation of Light rail transport (LRT). The data are gathered during the construction phase of the LRT by collecting the number of vehicles on each path of the intersection for 15 minutes during the evening rush hour of 1 week (6-7 pm, July 04-31, 2018) and then multiplied by 4 to calculate the flow of vehicles in 1 hour. For analyzing the data, the microscopic simulation software “VISSIM” has been used. Through the analysis, the traffic flow was processed in three stages: before and after implementation of light rail train, and one during the construction phase. Finally, the traffic results were input into another software called “EnViVer”, to calculate the amount of CO₂ during 1 h. The results showed that after the implementation of the light rail, CO₂ will drop by a minimum of 13%. This finding provides an evidence that light rail is a sustainable mode of transport.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, emission modeling, light rail, microscopic model, traffic flow.

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Authors: Madhu Aneja, Sapna Sharma

Abstract:

The water-based bioconvection of a nanofluid containing motile gyrotactic micro-organisms over nonlinear inclined stretching sheet has been investigated. The governing nonlinear boundary layer equations of the model are reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations via Oberbeck-Boussinesq approximation and similarity transformations. Further, the modified set of equations with associated boundary conditions are solved using Finite Element Method. The impact of various pertinent parameters on the velocity, temperature, nanoparticles concentration, density of motile micro-organisms profiles are obtained and analyzed in details. The results show that with the increase in angle of inclination δ, velocity decreases while temperature, nanoparticles concentration, a density of motile micro-organisms increases. Additionally, the skin friction coefficient, Nusselt number, Sherwood number, density number are computed for various thermophysical parameters. It is noticed that increasing Brownian motion and thermophoresis parameter leads to an increase in temperature of fluid which results in a reduction in Nusselt number. On the contrary, Sherwood number rises with an increase in Brownian motion and thermophoresis parameter. The findings have been validated by comparing the results of special cases with existing studies.

Keywords: Bioconvection, inclined stretching sheet, Gyrotactic micro-organisms, Brownian motion, thermophoresis, finite element method.

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Authors: Hossam el-ddin Mostafa, Pavel Čičak

Abstract:

In IETF RFC 2002, Mobile-IP was developed to enable Laptobs to maintain Internet connectivity while moving between subnets. However, the packet loss that comes from switching subnets arises because network connectivity is lost while the mobile host registers with the foreign agent and this encounters large end-to-end packet delays. The criterion to initiate a simple and fast full-duplex connection between the home agent and foreign agent, to reduce the roaming duration, is a very important issue to be considered by a work in this paper. State-transition Petri-Nets of the modeling scenario-based CIA: communication inter-agents procedure as an extension to the basic Mobile-IP registration process was designed and manipulated to describe the system in discrete events. The heuristic of configuration file during practical Setup session for registration parameters, on Cisco platform Router-1760 using IOS 12.3 (15)T and TFTP server S/W is created. Finally, stand-alone performance simulations from Simulink Matlab, within each subnet and also between subnets, are illustrated for reporting better end-toend packet delays. Results verified the effectiveness of our Mathcad analytical manipulation and experimental implementation. It showed lower values of end-to-end packet delay for Mobile-IP using CIA procedure-based early registration. Furthermore, it reported packets flow between subnets to improve losses between subnets.

Keywords: Cisco configuration, handoff, Mobile-IP, packetdelay, Petri-Nets, registration process, Simulink

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