Statistical Modeling of Accelerated Pavement Failure Using Response Surface Methodology

Authors: Anshu Manik, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha K. Khaitan

Abstract:

Rutting is one of the major load-related distresses in airport flexible pavements. Rutting in paving materials develop gradually with an increasing number of load applications, usually appearing as longitudinal depressions in the wheel paths and it may be accompanied by small upheavals to the sides. Significant research has been conducted to determine the factors which affect rutting and how they can be controlled. Using the experimental design concepts, a series of tests can be conducted while varying levels of different parameters, which could be the cause for rutting in airport flexible pavements. If proper experimental design is done, the results obtained from these tests can give a better insight into the causes of rutting and the presence of interactions and synergisms among the system variables which have influence on rutting. Although traditionally, laboratory experiments are conducted in a controlled fashion to understand the statistical interaction of variables in such situations, this study is an attempt to identify the critical system variables influencing airport flexible pavement rut depth from a statistical DoE perspective using real field data from a full-scale test facility. The test results do strongly indicate that the response (rut depth) has too much noise in it and it would not allow determination of a good model. From a statistical DoE perspective, two major changes proposed for this experiment are: (1) actual replication of the tests is definitely required, (2) nuisance variables need to be identified and blocked properly. Further investigation is necessary to determine possible sources of noise in the experiment.

Keywords: Airport Pavement, Design of Experiments, Rutting, NAPTF.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1073172

References:

[1] M.R. Thompson and D. Nauman, ''Rutting Rate Analysis of the AASHO Road Test Flexible Pavements,'' Transp. Res. Record 1384, TRB, Washington, DC, 1993.
[2] R.P. Rawe, T.A. Ruhl, and R.J. Sunta, ''Results of the 1989 ASCE Airfield Pavement Survey,'' in Proc. Airfield Pavement Specialty Conference, ASCE, New York, 1991.
[3] E. Guo and J. Rice, ''General Statistic Performance Analysis of Asphalt Airport Pavements,'' in Proc. Federal Aviation Administration Airport Technology Transfer Conference, Atlantic City, NJ, 1999.
[4] U. Seyhan and E. Tutmluer, ''Anisotropic Modular Ratios as Unbound Aggregate Performance Indicators,'' Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2002, pp. 409-416.
[5] J.B. Sousa, J. Craus, and C.L. Monismith, ''Summary Report on Permanent Deformation in Asphalt Concrete,'' SHRP-A/IR-91-04, Strategic Highway Research Program, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2001.
[6] R.A. Fisher, Statistical Methods for Research Workers. 9th ed., Oliver and Boyd, London, 1944.
[7] L.S. Riter, O. Vitek, K.M. Gooding, B.D. Hodge, and R.K. Julian, Jr., ''Statistical design of experiments as a tool in mass spectrometry,'' Journal of Mass Spectroscopy, Vol. 40, 2005, pp. 565-579.
[8] G.F. Hayhoe, ''Traffic Testing Results from the FAA's National Airport Pavement Test Facility,'' in Proc. 2nd International Conference on Accelerated Pavement Testing, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 2004.
[9] K. Gopalakrishnan and M.R. Thompson, ''Severity Effects of Dual-Tandem and Dual-Tridem Repeated Heavier Aircraft Gear Loading on Pavement Rutting Performance,'' The International Journal of Pavement Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2006, pp. 179-190.
[10] D.C. Montgomery, Design and Analysis of Experiments. 5th ed., Wiley: New York, 2000.
[11] R.H. Myers and D.C. Montgomery, Response Surface Methodology: Process and Product Optimization using Designed Experiments. 2nd ed., Wiley: New York, 2002.