Search results for: structural equation model.

Authors: Joachim Kimmerle, Johannes Moskaliuk, Ulrike Cress

Abstract:

The development of Internet technology in recent years has led to a more active role of users in creating Web content. This has significant effects both on individual learning and collaborative knowledge building. This paper will present an integrative framework model to describe and explain learning and knowledge building with shared digital artifacts on the basis of Luhmann-s systems theory and Piaget-s model of equilibration. In this model, knowledge progress is based on cognitive conflicts resulting from incongruities between an individual-s prior knowledge and the information which is contained in a digital artifact. Empirical support for the model will be provided by 1) applying it descriptively to texts from Wikipedia, 2) examining knowledge-building processes using a social network analysis, and 3) presenting a survey of a series of experimental laboratory studies.

Keywords: Individual learning, collaborative knowledge building, systems theory, equilibration.

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Authors: Langa Hendrick Musawenkosi, Twala Bhekisipho

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The success or failure of students is a concern for every academic institution, college, university, governments and students themselves. Several approaches have been researched to address this concern. In this paper, a view is held that when a student enters a university or college or an academic institution, he or she enters an academic environment. The academic environment is unique concept used to develop the solution for making predictions effectively. This paper presents a model to determine the propensity of a student to succeed or fail in the French South African Schneider Electric Education Center (FSASEC) at the Vaal University of Technology (VUT). The Decision Tree algorithm is used to implement the model at FSASEC.

Keywords: Academic environment model, decision trees, FSASEC, K-nearest neighbor, machine learning, popularity index, support vector machine.

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Authors: S. Sadi-Nezhad, K. Khalili Damghani, N. Pilevari

Abstract:

In this article, a mathematical programming model for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed. The investments are considered as investment projects. The uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of projects in presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: Fuzzy Programming, Fuzzy Knapsack, FuzzyCapital Budgeting, Fuzzy Project Selection

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Authors: A. Nielen, S. Mütze-Niewöhner, C. M. Schlick

Abstract:

In view of growing competition in the service sector, services are as much in need of modeling, analysis and improvement as business or working processes. Graphical process models are important means to capture process-related know-how for an effective management of the service process. In this contribution, a human performance analysis of process model development paying special attention to model development time and the working method was conducted. It was found that modelers with higher application experience need significantly less time for mental activities than modelers with lower application experience, spend more time on labeling graphical elements, and achieved higher process model quality in terms of activity label quality.

Keywords: Model quality, predetermined motion time system, process modeling, working method.

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Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

Abstract:

Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to the unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. Thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically 'vertically integrated', with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is the need for increasing renewable energy such as wind and solar in the electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allow any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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Authors: P. Ghann, J. Shiguang, C. Zhou

Abstract:

Access control is one of the most challenging issues facing information security. Access control is defined as, the ability to permit or deny access to a particular computational resource or digital information by an unauthorized user or subject. The concept of usage control (UCON) has been introduced as a unified approach to capture a number of extensions for access control models and systems. In UCON, an access decision is determined by three factors: authorizations, obligations and conditions. Attribute mutability and decision continuity are two distinct characteristics introduced by UCON for the first time. An observation of UCON components indicates that, the components are predefined and static. In this paper, we propose a new and flexible model of usage control for the creation and elimination of some of these components; for example new objects, subjects, attributes and integrate these with the original UCON model. We also propose a model for concurrent usage scenarios in UCON.

Keywords: Access Control, Concurrency, Digital container, Usage control.

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Authors: Maja Sajdak

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present the concept of an agile enterprise model and to initiate discussion on the research assumptions of the model presented. The implementation of the research project "The agility of enterprises in the process of adapting to the environment and its changes" began in August 2014 and is planned to last three years. The article has the form of a work-inprogress paper which aims to verify and initiate a debate over the proposed research model. In the literature there are very few publications relating to research into agility; it can be concluded that the most controversial issue in this regard is the method of measuring agility. In previous studies the operationalization of agility was often fragmentary, focusing only on selected areas of agility, for example manufacturing, or analysing only selected sectors. As a result the measures created to date can only be treated as contributory to the development of precise measurement tools. This research project aims to fill a cognitive gap in the literature with regard to the conceptualization and operationalization of an agile company. Thus, the original contribution of the author of this project is the construction of a theoretical model that integrates manufacturing agility (consisting mainly in adaptation to the environment) and strategic agility (based on proactive measures). The author of this research project is primarily interested in the attributes of an agile enterprise which indicate that the company is able to rapidly adapt to changing circumstances and behave pro-actively.

Keywords: Agile company, acuity, entrepreneurship, flexibility, research model, strategic leadership.

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Authors: Seyed Mohammad Hosseini, Amirhossein Moghanian

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research was to design a biomimetic system by freeze-drying method for evaluating the effect of adding 5 and 10 mol. % of zinc (Zn) in 58S bioactive glass and gelatin (5ZnBG/G and 10ZnBG/G) in terms of structural and biological changes. The structural analyses of samples were performed by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Also, 3-(4,5dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity tests were carried out for investigation of MC3T3-E1 cell behaviors. The SEM results demonstrated the spherical shape of the formed hydroxyapatite (HA) phases and also HA characteristic peaks were detected by XRD spectroscopy after 3 days of immersion in the simulated body fluid (SBF) solution. Meanwhile, FTIR spectra proved that the intensity of P–O peaks for 5ZnBG/G was more than 10ZnBG/G and control samples. Moreover, the results of ALP activity test illustrated that the optimal amount of Zn (5ZnBG/G) caused a considerable enhancement in bone cell growth. Taken together, the scaffold with 5 mol.% Zn was introduced as an optimal sample because of its higher biocompatibility, in vitro bioactivity and growth of MC3T3-E1 cells in comparison with other samples in bone tissue engineering.

Keywords: Scaffold, gelatin, modified bioactive glass, ALP, bone tissue engineering.

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Authors: Qazi Nasir, K. K. Lau, Bhajan Lal

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In this study the enthalpies of dissociation for pure methane and pure carbon dioxide was calculated using a hydrate equilibrium data obtained in this study. The enthalpy of dissociation was determined using Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The results were compared with the values reported in literature obtained using various techniques.

Keywords: Enthalpies of dissociation, methane, carbon dioxide, gas hydrate, natural gas.

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Authors: Samindi Samarakoon, Ørjan Sletbakk Vie, Remi Kleiven Fjelldal

Abstract:

White concrete facade elements are widely used in construction industry. It is challenging to achieve the desired workability in casting of white concrete elements. Particle Matrix model was used for proportioning the self-compacting white concrete (SCWC) to control segregation and bleeding and to improve workability. The paper presents how to reach the target slump flow while controlling bleeding and segregation in SCWC. The amount of aggregates, binders and mixing water, as well as type and dosage of superplasticizer (SP) to be used are the major factors influencing the properties of SCWC. Slump flow and compressive strength tests were carried out to examine the performance of SCWC, and the results indicate that the particle matrix model could produce successfully SCWC controlling segregation and bleeding.

Keywords: Mix design, particle, matrix model, white concrete.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Azadeh Yazdi, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Amirmasoud Hamedi

Abstract:

In this study, the Reynolds-Stress-Navier-Stokes framework is utilized to investigate the flow inside the diesel injector nozzle. The flow is assumed to be multiphase as the formation of vapor by pressure drop is visualized. For pressure and velocity linkage, the coupled algorithm is used. Since the cavitation phenomenon inherently is unsteady, the quasi-steady approach is utilized for saving time and resources in the current study. Schnerr-Sauer cavitation model is used, which was capable of predicting flow behavior both at the initial and final steps of the cavitation process. Two different turbulent models were used in this study to clarify which one is more capable in predicting cavitation inception and super-cavitation. It was found that K-ε was more compatible with the Shnerr-Sauer cavitation model; therefore, the mentioned model is used for the rest of this study.

Keywords: CFD, RANS, cavitation, fuel, injector.

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Authors: Gints Jekabsons

Abstract:

The approach of subset selection in polynomial regression model building assumes that the chosen fixed full set of predefined basis functions contains a subset that is sufficient to describe the target relation sufficiently well. However, in most cases the necessary set of basis functions is not known and needs to be guessed – a potentially non-trivial (and long) trial and error process. In our research we consider a potentially more efficient approach – Adaptive Basis Function Construction (ABFC). It lets the model building method itself construct the basis functions necessary for creating a model of arbitrary complexity with adequate predictive performance. However, there are two issues that to some extent plague the methods of both the subset selection and the ABFC, especially when working with relatively small data samples: the selection bias and the selection instability. We try to correct these issues by model post-evaluation using Cross-Validation and model ensembling. To evaluate the proposed method, we empirically compare it to ABFC methods without ensembling, to a widely used method of subset selection, as well as to some other well-known regression modeling methods, using publicly available data sets.

Keywords: Basis function construction, heuristic search, modelensembles, polynomial regression.

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Authors: W. K. Wong, Z. X. Guo, P.Y. Mok

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective order allocation planning problem with the consideration of various real-world production features. A novel hybrid intelligent optimization model, integrating a multi-objective memetic optimization process, a Monte Carlo simulation technique and a heuristic pruning technique, is proposed to handle this problem. Experiments based on industrial data are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results show that (1) the proposed model can effectively solve the investigated problem by providing effective production decision-making solutions, which outperformsan NSGA-II-based optimization process and an industrial method.

Keywords: Multi-objective order allocation planning, Pareto optimization, Memetic algorithm, Mento Carlo simulation

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J.C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

Abstract:

Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, Liquidity Shock, Non-standard Intervention.

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Authors: Aws Al-azawi, John Soraghan

Abstract:

There is a growing interest in the use of ultrasonic speckle tracking for biomedical image formation of tissue deformation. Speckle tracking is angle independent and has an ability to differentiate soft tissue into benign and malignant regions. In this paper a simulation model for dynamic ultrasound scatterer is presented. The model composes Field-II ultrasonic scatterers and FEM (ANSYS-11) nodes as a regional tissue deformation. A performance evaluation is presented on axial displacement and strain fields estimation of a uniformly elastic model, using speckle tracking based 1D cross-correlation of optimally segmented pre and post-deformation frames. Optimum correlation window length is investigated in terms of highest signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for a selected region of interest of a smoothed displacement field. Finally, gradient based strain field of both smoothed and non-smoothed displacement fields are compared. Simulation results from the model are shown to compare favorably with FEM results.

Keywords: Speckle tracking, tissue deformation, ultrasonic simulation.

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Authors: Yang Xiaoliang, Liu Wei, Wang Hongbo, Zhao Yunfei

Abstract:

Numerical investigation of the characteristics of an 80° delta wing in combined force-pitch and free-roll is presented. The implicit, upwind, flux-difference splitting, finite volume scheme and the second-order-accurate finite difference scheme are employed to solve the flow governing equations and Euler rigid-body dynamics equations, respectively. The characteristics of the delta wing in combined free-roll and large amplitude force-pitch is obtained numerically and shows a well agreement with experimental data qualitatively. The motion in combined force-pitch and free-roll significantly reduces the lift force and transverse stabilities of the delta wing, which is closely related to the flying safety. Investigations on sensitive factors indicate that the roll-axis moment of inertia and the structural damping have great influence on the frequency and amplitude, respectively. Moreover, the turbulence model is considered as an influencing factor in the investigation.

Keywords: combined force-pitch and free-roll, numericalsimulation, sensitive factors, slender delta wing, wing rock

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Authors: A. U. Haque, W. Asrar, A. A. Omar, E. Sulaeman, J. S. Mohamed Ali

Abstract:

Due to the interference effects, the intrinsic aerodynamic parameters obtained from the individual component testing are always fundamentally different than those obtained for complete model testing. Consideration and limitation for such testing need to be taken into account in any design work related to the component buildup method. In this paper, the scaled model of a straight rectangular canard of a hybrid buoyant aircraft is tested at 50 m/s in IIUM-LSWT (Low Speed Wind Tunnel). Model and its attachment with the balance are kept rigid to have results free from the aeroelastic distortion. Based on the velocity profile of the test section’s floor; the height of the model is kept equal to the corresponding boundary layer displacement. Balance measurements provide valuable but limited information of overall aerodynamic behavior of the model. Zero lift coefficient is obtained at -2.2o and the corresponding drag coefficient was found to be less than that at zero angle of attack. As a part of the validation of low fidelity tool, plot of lift coefficient plot was verified by the experimental data and except the value of zero lift coefficients, the overall trend has under predicted the lift coefficient. Based on this comparative study, a correction factor of 1.36 is proposed for lift curve slope obtained from the panel method.

Keywords: Wind tunnel testing, boundary layer displacement, lift curve slope, canard, aerodynamics.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

Abstract:

In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City.

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Authors: Ashwini V. Chavan, Sukhanand S. Bhosale

Abstract:

Challenges of weak soil subgrade are often resolved either by stabilization or reinforcing it. However, it is also practiced to reinforce the granular fill to improve the load-settlement behavior of it over weak soil strata. The inclusion of reinforcement in the engineered granular fill provided a new impetus for the development of enhanced Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) models, also known as mechanical foundation models or lumped parameter models. Several researchers have been working in this direction to understand the mechanism of granular fill-reinforcement interaction and the response of weak soil under the application of load. These models have been developed by extending available SSI models such as the Winkler Model, Pasternak Model, Hetenyi Model, Kerr Model etc., and are helpful to visualize the load-settlement behavior of a physical system through 1-D and 2-D analysis considering beam and plate resting on the foundation, respectively. Based on the literature survey, these models are categorized as ‘Reinforced Pasternak Model,’ ‘Double Beam Model,’ ‘Reinforced Timoshenko Beam Model,’ and ‘Reinforced Kerr Model’. The present work reviews the past 30+ years of research in the field of SSI models for reinforced foundation systems, presenting the conceptual development of these models systematically and discussing their limitations. A flow-chart showing procedure for compution of deformation and mobilized tension is also incorporated in the paper. Special efforts are taken to tabulate the parameters and their significance in the load-settlement analysis, which may be helpful in future studies for the comparison and enhancement of results and findings of physical models. 

Keywords: geosynthetics, mathematical modeling, reinforced foundation, soil-structure interaction, ground improvement, soft soil

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Authors: F. Tajarrod, G. Latif-Shabgahi

Abstract:

Fault tree analysis is a well-known method for reliability and safety assessment of engineering systems. In the last 3 decades, a number of methods have been introduced, in the literature, for automatic construction of fault trees. The main difference between these methods is the starting model from which the tree is constructed. This paper presents a new methodology for the construction of static and dynamic fault trees from a system Simulink model. The method is introduced and explained in detail, and its correctness and completeness is experimentally validated by using an example, taken from literature. Advantages of the method are also mentioned.

Keywords: Fault tree, Simulink, Standby Sparing and Redundancy

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and a moving terminal time. This paper examines the stability of model predictive control for linear discrete-time systems with additive stochastic disturbances. A sufficient condition for the stability of the closed-loop system with model predictive control is derived by means of a linear matrix inequality. The objective of this paper is to show the results of computational simulations in order to verify the effectiveness of the obtained stability condition.

Keywords: Computational simulations, optimal control, predictive control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems.

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Authors: Nader H. Ghareeb, Mohamed S. Gaith, Sayed M. Soleimani

Abstract:

In modern engineering, weight optimization has a priority during the design of structures. However, optimizing the weight can result in lower stiffness and less internal damping, causing the structure to become excessively prone to vibration. To overcome this problem, active or smart materials are implemented. The coupled electromechanical properties of smart materials, used in the form of piezoelectric ceramics in this work, make these materials well-suited for being implemented as distributed sensors and actuators to control the structural response. The smart structure proposed in this paper is composed of a cantilevered steel beam, an adhesive or bonding layer, and a piezoelectric actuator. The static deflection of the structure is derived as function of the piezoelectric voltage, and the outcome is compared to theoretical and experimental results from literature. The relation between the voltage and the piezoelectric moment at both ends of the actuator is also investigated and a reduced finite element model of the smart structure is created and verified. Finally, a linear controller is implemented and its ability to attenuate the vibration due to the first natural frequency is demonstrated.

Keywords: Active linear control, Lyapunov stability theorem, piezoelectricity, smart structure, static deflection.

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Authors: Z. Haddad, C. Abid, O. Rahli, O. Margeat, W. Dachraoui, A. Mataoui

Abstract:

The present study aims to measure the volumetric mass density of NiPd-heptane nanofluids synthesized using a one step method known as thermal decomposition of metal-surfactant complexes. The particle concentration is up to 7.55g/l and the temperature range of the experiment is from 20°C to 50°C. The measured values were compared with the mixture theory and good agreement between the theoretical equation and measurement were obtained. Moreover, the available nanofluids volumetric mass density data in the literature is reviewed.

Keywords: NiPd nanoparticles, nanofluids, volumetric mass density, stability.

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Authors: Kyoungwoo Park, Chol-Ho Hong, Ji-Won Han, Byeong-Sam Kim, Cha-Sik Park, Oh Kyung Kwon

Abstract:

Numerical analysis of flow characteristics and separation efficiency in a high-efficiency cyclone has been performed. Several models based on the experimental observation for a design purpose were proposed. However, the model is only estimated the cyclone's performance under the limited environments; it is difficult to obtain a general model for all types of cyclones. The purpose of this study is to find out the flow characteristics and separation efficiency numerically. The Reynolds stress model (RSM) was employed instead of a standard k-ε or a k-ω model which was suitable for isotropic turbulence and it could predict the pressure drop and the Rankine vortex very well. For small particles, there were three significant components (entrance of vortex finder, cone, and dust collector) for the particle separation. In the present work, the particle re-entraining phenomenon from the dust collector to the cyclone body was observed after considerable time. This re-entrainment degraded the separation efficiency and was one of the significant factors for the separation efficiency of the cyclone.

Keywords: CFD, High-efficiency cyclone, Pressure drop, Rankine vortex, Reynolds stress model (RSM), Separation efficiency.

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Authors: Hu Haibo, Zhao Hong

Abstract:

Gaussian mixture background model is widely used in moving target detection of the image sequences. However, traditional Gaussian mixture background model usually considers the time continuity of the pixels, and establishes background through statistical distribution of pixels without taking into account the pixels- spatial similarity, which will cause noise, imperfection and other problems. This paper proposes a new Gaussian mixture modeling approach, which combines the color and gradient of the spatial information, and integrates the spatial information of the pixel sequences to establish Gaussian mixture background. The experimental results show that the movement background can be extracted accurately and efficiently, and the algorithm is more robust, and can work in real time in tracking applications.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture model, real-time tracking, sequence image, gradient.

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Authors: S. K. Mohan, T. Viruthagiri, C. Arunkumar

Abstract:

Tannase (tannin acyl hydrolase, E.C.3.1.1.20) is an important hydrolysable enzyme with innumerable applications and industrial potential. In the present study, a kinetic model has been developed for the batch fermentation used for the production of tannase by A.flavus MTCC 3783. Maximum tannase activity of 143.30 U/ml was obtained at 96 hours under optimum operating conditions at 35oC, an initial pH of 5.5 and with an inducer tannic acid concentration of 3% (w/v) for a fermentation period of 120 hours. The biomass concentration reaches a maximum of 6.62 g/l at 96 hours and further there was no increase in biomass concentration till the end of the fermentation. Various unstructured kinetic models were analyzed to simulate the experimental values of microbial growth, tannase activity and substrate concentration. The Logistic model for microbial growth , Luedeking - Piret model for production of tannase and Substrate utilization kinetic model for utilization of substrate were capable of predicting the fermentation profile with high coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.980, 0.942 and 0.983 respectively. The results indicated that the unstructured models were able to describe the fermentation kinetics more effectively.

Keywords: Aspergillus flavus, Batch fermentation, Kinetic model, Tannase, Unstructured models.

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Authors: Changjin Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a two-neuron system with time-delayed connections between neurons. By analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation, its linear stability is investigated and Hopf bifurcation is demonstrated. Some explicit formulae for determining the stability and the direction of the Hopf bifurcation periodic solutions bifurcating from Hopf bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory and center manifold theory. Some numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: Two-neuron system, delay, stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Lei Wang, Sizong Guo

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the numerical method for solving second-order fuzzy differential equations using Adomian method under strongly generalized differentiability. And, we present an example with initial condition having four different solutions to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method under strongly generalized differentiability.

Keywords: Fuzzy-valued function, fuzzy initial value problem, strongly generalized differentiability, adomian decomposition method.

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Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

Abstract:

Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: Crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges.

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Authors: D. S. C. Soares, D. G. Costa, J. T. S., A. K. S. Abud, T. P. Nunes, A. M. Oliveira Júnior

Abstract:

Mathematical models of drying are used for the purpose of understanding the drying process in order to determine important parameters for design and operation of the dryer. The jackfruit is a fruit with high consumption in the Northeast and perishability. It is necessary to apply techniques to improve their conservation for longer in order to diffuse it by regions with low consumption. This study aimed to analyze several mathematical models (Page, Lewis, and Midilli) to indicate one that best fits the conditions of convective drying process using performance indicators associated with each model: accuracy (Af) and noise factors (Bf), mean square error (RMSE) and standard error of prediction (% SEP). Jackfruit drying was carried out in convective type tray dryer at a temperature of 50°C for 9 hours. It is observed that the model Midili was more accurate with Af: 1.39, Bf: 1.33, RMSE: 0.01%, and SEP: 5.34. However, the use of the Model Midilli is not appropriate for purposes of control process due to need four tuning parameters. With the performance indicators used in this paper, the Page model showed similar results with only two parameters. It is concluded that the best correlation between the experimental and estimated data is given by the Page’s model.

Keywords: Drying, models, jackfruit.

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