Search results for: Rainfall – Runoff.

Authors: J. Furuya, S. Kobayashi, S. D. Meyer

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This research examines possible effects of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model. Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or regions will have different trends depending on the context. These alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population, temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant further investigation.

Keywords: Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.

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Authors: Muhammad Ashraf Fauzi, Nurhayati Abdul Malek, Jamilah Othman

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The implementations of green roof have been widely used in the developed countries such as Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Canada. Green roof have many benefits such as aesthetic and economic value, ecological gain which are optimization of storm water management, urban heat island mitigation and energy conservation. In term of pollution, green roof can control the air and noise pollution in urban cities. The application of green roof in Malaysian building has been studied with the previous work of green roof either in Malaysia or other Asian region as like Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and several other countries that have similar climate and environment as in Malaysia. These technologies of adapting green roof have been compared to the Green Building Index (GBI) of Malaysian buildings. The study has concentrated on the technical aspect of green roof system having focused on i) waste & recyclable materials ii) types of plants and method of planting and iii) green roof as tool to reduce storm water runoff. The finding of these areas will be compared to the suitability in achieving good practice of the GBI in Malaysia. Results show that most of the method are based on the countries own climate and environment. This suggests that the method of using green roof must adhere to the tropical climate of Malaysia. Suggestion of this research will be viewed in term of the sustainability of the green roof. Further research can be developed to implement the best method and application in Malaysian climate especially in urban cities and township.

Keywords: Green roofs, vegetation, plants, material, stormwater.

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Authors: Arnab Bandyopadhyay, Anubhab Pal, Subhajit Debnath

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Climate change is a cumulative change in weather patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data. Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found. However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.

Keywords: Temporal trend, climate change, ArcGIS, Mann- Kendall test, Sen slope

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, T. Ichikawa, P. Mekpruksawong

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This research was conducted in the Lower Namkam Irrigation Project situated in the Namkam River Basin in Thailand. Degradation of groundwater quality in some areas is caused by saline soil spots beneath ground surface. However, the tail regulated gate structure on the Namkam River, a lateral stream of the Mekong River. It is aimed for maintaining water level in the river at +137.5 to +138.5 m (MSL) and flow to the irrigation canals based on a gravity system since July 2009. It might leach some saline soil spots from underground to soil surface if lack of understanding of the conjunctive surface water and groundwater behaviors. This research has been conducted by continuously the observing of both shallow and deep groundwater level and quality from existing observation wells. The simulation of surface water was carried out using a hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) to compute the ungauged side flow catchments as the lateral flows for the river system model (HEC-RAS). The constant water levels in the upstream of the operated gate caused a slight rising up of shallow groundwater level when compared to the water table. However, the groundwater levels in the confined aquifers remained less impacted than in the shallow aquifers but groundwater levels in late of wet season in some wells were higher than the phreatic surface. This causes salinization of the groundwater at the soil surface and might affect some crops. This research aims for the balance of water stage in the river and efficient groundwater utilization in this area.

Keywords: Surface water, groundwater observation, irrigation, water balance.

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Authors: W. A. D. P. Wanigasundera, P. C. B. Alahakoon

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Kandy district in Sri Lanka, has small scale and rain-fed paddy farming, and highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, the status of climate change was assessed using meteorological data and compared with the perceptions of paddy farming community. Factors affecting the adaptation to the climate smart farming were also assessed.

 Meteorological data for 33 years were collected and the changes over time compared with the perceptions of farmers. The temperature, rainfall and number of rainy days have increased in both locations. The onset of rains also has shifted. The perceptions of the majority of the farmers were in line with the actual changes. The knowledge and attitudes about the causes of climate change and adaptation were medium and related to level of adoption. Formulating effective communication strategies, and a collaborative approach involving state, private sector, civil society to make Sri Lankan agriculture ‘climate-smart’ is urgently needed.

Keywords: Adaptation of climate-smart technology, climate change, perception, rain-fed paddy.

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Authors: Y. S. Liew, K. A. Puteh Ariffin, M. A. Mohd Nor

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One of the Best Management Practices (BMPs) promoted in Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA) published by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) in 2001 is through the construction of wet ponds in new development projects for water quantity and quality control. Therefore, this paper aims to demonstrate a case study on evaluation of a constructed mini wet pond located at Sekolah Rendah Kebangsaan Seksyen 2, Puchong, Selangor, Malaysia in both stormwater quantity and quality aspect particularly to reduce the peak discharge by temporary storing and gradual release of stormwater runoff from an outlet structure or other release mechanism. The evaluation technique will be using InfoWorks Collection System (CS) as the numerical modeling approach for water quantity aspect. Statistical test by comparing the correlation coefficient (R²), mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model in simulating the peak discharge changes. Results demonstrated that there will be a reduction in peak flow at 11 % to 15% and time to peak flow is slower by 5 minutes through a wet pond. For water quality aspect, a survey on biological indicator of water quality carried out depicts that the pond is within the range of rather clean to clean water with the score of 5.3. This study indicates that a constructed wet pond with wetland facilities is able to help in managing water quantity and stormwater generated pollution at source, towards achieving ecologically sustainable development in urban areas.

Keywords: Wet pond, Retention Facilities, Best Management Practices (BMP), Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA).

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Authors: B. J. C. Perera, D. A. Sachindra, W. Godoy., A.F. Barton, F. Huang

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Many water supply systems in Australia are currently undergoing significant reconfiguration due to reductions in long term average rainfall and resulting low inflows to water supply reservoirs since the second half of the 20th century. When water supply systems undergo change, it is necessary to develop new operating rules, which should consider climate, because the climate change is likely to further reduce inflows. In addition, water resource systems are increasingly intended to be operated to meet complex and multiple objectives representing social, economic, environmental and sustainability criteria. This is further complicated by conflicting preferences on these objectives from diverse stakeholders. This paper describes a methodology to develop optimum operating rules for complex multi-reservoir systems undergoing significant change, considering all of the above issues. The methodology is demonstrated using the Grampians water supply system in northwest Victoria, Australia. Initial work conducted on the project is also presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, Multi-objective planning, Pareto optimal; Stakeholder preference, Statistical downscaling, Water supply systems.

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Authors: Shrikant Charhate, Gayatri Deshpande

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Permeable pavements have significant benefits like managing runoff, infiltration, and carrying traffic over conventional pavements in terms of sustainability and environmental impact. Some of the countries are using this technique, especially at locations where durability and other parameters are of importance in nature; however, sparse work has been done on this concept. In India, this is yet to be adopted. In this work, the progress in the characterization and development of Permeable Articulated Concrete Blocks (PACB) pavement design is described and discussed with reference to Indian conditions. The experimentation and in-depth analysis was carried out considering conditions like soil erosion, water logging, and dust which are significant challenges caused due to impermeability of pavement. Concrete blocks with size 16.5’’x 6.5’’x 7’’ consisting of arch shape (4’’) at beneath and ½” PVC holes for articulation were casted. These blocks were tested for flexural strength. The articulation process was done with nylon ropes forming series of concrete block system. The total spacing between the blocks was kept about 8 to 10% of total area. The hydraulic testing was carried out by placing the articulated blocks with the combination of layers of soil, geotextile, clean angular aggregate. This was done to see the percentage of seepage through the entire system. The experimental results showed that with the shape of concrete block the flexural strength achieved was beyond the permissible limit. Such blocks with the combination could be very useful innovation in Indian conditions and useful at various locations compared to the traditional blocks as an alternative for long term sustainability.

Keywords: Connections, geotextile, permeable ACB, pavements, stone base.

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Authors: Valmir Baloshi, Fran Gjoka, Nehat Çollaku, Elvin Toromani

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As a sediment production mechanism, soil erosion is the main environmental threat to the Bovilla watershed, including the decline of water quality of the Bovilla reservoir that provides drinking water to Tirana city (the capital of Albania). Therefore, an experiment with 25 erosion plots for soil erosion monitoring has been set up since June 2017. The aim was to determine the soil loss on plot and watershed scale in Bovilla watershed (Tirana region) for implementation of soil and water protection measures or payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs. The results of erosion monitoring for the period June 2017 - May 2018 showed that the highest values of surface runoff were noted in bare land of 38829.91 liters on slope of 74% and the lowest values in forest land of 12840.6 liters on slope of 64% while the highest values of soil loss were found in bare land of 595.15 t/ha on slope of 62% and lowest values in forest land of 18.99 t/ha on slope of 64%. These values are much higher than the average rate of soil loss in the European Union (2.46 ton/ha/year). In the same sloping class, the soil loss was reduced from orchard or bare land to the forest land, and in the same category of land use, the soil loss increased with increasing land slope. It is necessary to conduct chemical analyses of sediments to determine the amount of chemical elements leached out of the soil and end up in the reservoir of Bovilla. It is concluded that PES programs should be implemented for rehabilitation of sub-watersheds Ranxe, Vilez and Zall-Bastar of the Bovilla watershed with valuable conservation practices.

Keywords: ANOVA, Bovilla, land cover, slope, soil loss, watershed management.

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Authors: M. Ismail, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming, Abu Bakar

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Heavy rainfall greatly affects the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. There are many accidents of aircraft caused by aerodynamic efficiency degradation by heavy rain. In this Paper we have studied the heavy rain effects on the aerodynamic efficiency of cambered NACA 64-210 and symmetric NACA 0012 airfoils. Our results show significant increase in drag and decrease in lift. We used preprocessing software gridgen for creation of geometry and mesh, used fluent as solver and techplot as postprocessor. Discrete phase modeling called DPM is used to model the rain particles using two phase flow approach. The rain particles are assumed to be inert. Both airfoils showed significant decrease in lift and increase in drag in simulated rain environment. The most significant difference between these two airfoils was the NACA 64-210 more sensitivity than NACA 0012 to liquid water content (LWC). We believe that the results showed in this paper will be useful for the designer of the commercial aircrafts and UAVs, and will be helpful for training of the pilots to control the airplanes in heavy rain.

Keywords: airfoil, discrete phase modeling, heavy rain, Reynolds

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Authors: R. May, K. Jinno, I. Yusoff

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The paper aims at evaluating the effects of heavy groundwater withdrawal and artificial groundwater recharge of an ex-mining pond to the aquifer system of the Langat Basin through the three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling. Many mining sites have been left behind from the massive mining exploitations in Malaysia during the England colonization era and from the last few decades. These sites are able to accommodate more than a million cubic meters of water from precipitation, runoff, groundwater, and river. Most of the time, the mining sites are turned into ponds for recreational activities. In the current study, an artificial groundwater recharge from an ex-mining pond in the Langat Basin was proposed due to its capacity to store >50 million m3 of water. The location of the pond is near the Langat River and opposite a steel company where >4 million gallons of groundwater is withdrawn on a daily basis. The 3D numerical simulation was developed using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The calibrated model (error about 0.7 m) was utilized to simulate two scenarios (1) Case 1: artificial recharge pond with no pumping and (2) Case 2: artificial pond with pumping. The results showed that in Case 1, the pond played a very important role in supplying additional water to the aquifer and river. About 90,916 m3/d of water from the pond, 1,173 m3/d from the Langat River, and 67,424 m3/d from the direct recharge of precipitation infiltrated into the aquifer system. In Case 2, due to the abstraction of groundwater from a company, it caused a steep depression around the wells, river, and pond. The result of the water budget showed an increase rate of inflow in the pond and river with 92,493m3/d and 3,881m3/d respectively. The outcome of the current study provides useful information of the aquifer behavior of the Langat Basin.

Keywords: Groundwater and surface water interaction, groundwater modeling, GMS, artificial recharge pond, ex-mining site.

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Authors: Shun Hattori

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In recent years, many researches to mine the exploding Web world, especially User Generated Content (UGC) such as weblogs, for knowledge about various phenomena and events in the physical world have been done actively, and also Web services with the Web-mined knowledge have begun to be developed for the public. However, there are few detailed investigations on how accurately Web-mined data reflect physical-world data. It must be problematic to idolatrously utilize the Web-mined data in public Web services without ensuring their accuracy sufficiently. Therefore, this paper introduces the simplest Web Sensor and spatiotemporallynormalized Web Sensor to extract spatiotemporal data about a target phenomenon from weblogs searched by keyword(s) representing the target phenomenon, and tries to validate the potential and reliability of the Web-sensed spatiotemporal data by four kinds of granularity analyses of coefficient correlation with temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and earthquake statistics per day by region of Japan Meteorological Agency as physical-world data: spatial granularity (region-s population density), temporal granularity (time period, e.g., per day vs. per week), representation granularity (e.g., “rain" vs. “heavy rain"), and media granularity (weblogs vs. microblogs such as Tweets).

Keywords: Granularity analysis, knowledge extraction, spatiotemporal data mining, Web credibility, Web mining, Web sensor.

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Authors: M. Ismail, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming

Abstract:

Heavy rainfall greatly affects the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. There are many accidents of aircraft caused by aerodynamic efficiency degradation by heavy rain. In this Paper we have studied the heavy rain effects on the aerodynamic efficiency of NACA 64-210 & NACA 0012 airfoils. For our analysis, CFD method and preprocessing grid generator are used as our main analytical tools, and the simulation of rain is accomplished via two phase flow approach-s Discrete Phase Model (DPM). Raindrops are assumed to be non-interacting, non-deforming, non-evaporating and non-spinning spheres. Both airfoil sections exhibited significant reduction in lift and increase in drag for a given lift condition in simulated rain. The most significant difference between these two airfoils was the sensitivity of the NACA 64-210 to liquid water content (LWC), while NACA 0012 performance losses in the rain environment is not a function of LWC . It is expected that the quantitative information gained in this paper will be useful to the operational airline industry and greater effort such as small scale and full scale flight tests should put in this direction to further improve aviation safety.

Keywords: airfoil, discrete phase modeling, heavy rain, Reynolds number

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Authors: Wen Hui Kuan, Chia Ling Chang, Pei Shan Lui

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The Chichiawan stream in the Wulin catchment in Taiwan is the natural habitat of Formosan landlocked salmon. Human and agriculture activities gradually worsen water quality and impact the fish habitat negatively. To protect and manage Formosan landlocked salmon habitat, it is important to understand a variety land-uses affect on the watershed responses to storms. This study discusses watershed responses to the dry-day before a storm event and a variety of land-uses in the Wulin catchment. Under the land-use planning in the Wulin catchment, the peak flows during typhoon events do not have noticeable difference. However, the nutrient exports can be highly reduced under the strategies of restraining agriculture activities. Due to the higher affinity of P for soil than that of N, the exports of TN from overall Wuling catchment were much greater than Ortho-P. Agriculture mainly centralized in subbasin A, which is the important source of nutrients in nonpoint source discharge. The subbasin A supplied about 26% of the TN and 32% of the Ortho-P discharge in 2004, despite the fact it only covers 19% area of the Wuling catchment. The subbasin analysis displayed that the agricultural subbasin A exports higher nutrients per unit area than other forest subbasins. Additionally, the agricultural subbasin A contributed a higher percentage to total Ortho-P exports compares to TN. The results of subbasin analysis might imply the transport of Ortho-P was similar to the particulate matter which was mainly influenced by the runoff and affected by the desorption from soil particles while the TN (dominated as nitrate-N) was mainly influenced by base-flow.

Keywords: Chiachiawan stream, Formosan landlocked salmon, modeling, typhoon, watershed response.

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr, Gerd Morgenschweis, Andreas Schlenkhoff

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Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related hazards, it is generally considered as a prolonged absence of precipitation. This normal and recurring climate phenomenon had plagued civilization throughout history because of the negative impacts on economical, environmental and social sectors. Drought characteristics are thus recognized as important factors in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence and severity in the Ruhr river basin. The frequency of drought events was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Used data are daily precipitation records from seven meteorological stations covering the period 1961-2007. The main benefit of the application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data is required to deliver five major dimensions of a drought : duration, intensity, severity, magnitude, and frequency. Furthermore, drought can be calculated in different time steps. In this study SPI was calculated for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Several drought events were detected in the covered period, these events contain mild, moderate and severe droughts. Also positive and negative trends in the SPI values were observed.

Keywords: Drought, Germany, Precipitation, Ruhr River, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Trend Test.

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Authors: Jane O. Munonye

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Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Keywords: Agriculture, climate change, sustainability, yam.

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Authors: Fardin Boustani , Mohammah Hosein Hojati

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The Beshar River is one aquatic ecosystem,which is affected by pollutants. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of human activities on the water quality of the Beshar river. This river is approximately 190 km in length and situated at the geographical positions of 51° 20' to 51° 48' E and 30° 18' to 30° 52' N it is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems of Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad province next to the city of Yasuj in southern Iran. The Beshar river has been contaminated by industrial, agricultural and other activities in this region such as factories, hospitals, agricultural farms, urban surface runoff and effluent of wastewater treatment plants. In order to evaluate the effects of these pollutants on the quality of the Beshar river, five monitoring stations were selected along its course. The first station is located upstream of Yasuj near the Dehnow village; stations 2 to 4 are located east, south and west of city; and the 5th station is located downstream of Yasuj. Several water quality parameters were sampled. These include pH, dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand (BOD), temperature, conductivity, turbidity, total dissolved solids and discharge or flow measurements. Water samples from the five stations were collected and analysed to determine the following physicochemical parameters: EC, pH, T.D.S, T.H, No2, DO, BOD5, COD during 2008 to 2009. The study shows that the BOD5 value of station 1 is at a minimum (1.5 ppm) and increases downstream from stations 2 to 4 to a maximum (7.2 ppm), and then decreases at station 5. The DO values of station 1 is a maximum (9.55 ppm), decreases downstream to stations 2 - 4 which are at a minimum (3.4 ppm), before increasing at station 5. The amount of BOD and TDS are highest at the 4th station and the amount of DO is lowest at this station, marking the 4th station as more highly polluted than the other stations. The physicochemical parameters improve at the 5th station due to pollutant degradation and dilution. Finally the point and nonpoint pollutant sources of Beshar river were determined and compared to the monitoring results.

Keywords: Beshar river, physicochemical parameter, waterpollution, Yasuj

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Authors: Olatinwo M. O., Oyeleke Olaosebikan, David Henry O.

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Rain attenuation plays a lot of roles in the design of satellite and terrestrial microwave radio links, hence a good knowledge of its effect is of great interest to Engineers and scientists in that it is often required to give a high level of accuracy of the rainrate distribution that expresses rainrate from the lowest value to the highest. This study proposes a model to express rainrate parameters alpha (α) and beta (β) as a function of geographical location at 0.01% of the time. The tropical locations used in the development of the effect were Ilorin, Ile-Ife, Douala, Dar-es-Selam, Nairobi, Lusaka, and Brazilia.

This expression clearly confirms the variability of rainfall from place to place. When consistency test was carried out using the expression to generate rainrate for each location examined, the result obtained was reliable for rain intensities between 5mm/h and 200mm/h. The variability of α and β with latitude also shows that different latitudes have different cumulative rain distribution. The model proposed in this study would be one of the useful tools to Radio Engineers since the precipitation effect in the design of satellite and terrestrial microwave radio links is among the factors to consider when designing communication systems.

Keywords: Rain rate, attenuation, geographical location.

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Authors: Nida Rizvi, Deeksha Katyal, Varun Joshi

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River Hindon is an important river catering the demand of highly populated rural and industrial cluster of western Uttar Pradesh, India. Water quality of river Hindon is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to various industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. The present study aimed at identifying the pollution sources and quantifying the degree to which these sources are responsible for the deteriorating water quality of the river. Various water quality parameters, like pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, and total alkalinity were assessed. Water quality data obtained from eight study sites for one year has been subjected to the two multivariate techniques, namely, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis was applied with the aim to find out spatial variability and to identify the sources responsible for the water quality of the river. Three Varifactors were obtained after varimax rotation of initial principal components using principal component analysis. Cluster analysis was carried out to classify sampling stations of certain similarity, which grouped eight different sites into two clusters. The study reveals that the anthropogenic influence (municipal, industrial, waste water and agricultural runoff) was the major source of river water pollution. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and elucidation of multifaceted data sets, recognition of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, multivariate statistical technique, river Hindon, water Quality.

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Authors: T. Aydin, M. F. Alaeddinoglu

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People, throughout the history, have made estimates and inferences about the future by using their past experiences. Developing information technologies and the improvements in the database management systems make it possible to extract useful information from knowledge in hand for the strategic decisions. Therefore, different methods have been developed. Data mining by association rules learning is one of such methods. Apriori algorithm, one of the well-known association rules learning algorithms, is not commonly used in spatio-temporal data sets. However, it is possible to embed time and space features into the data sets and make Apriori algorithm a suitable data mining technique for learning spatiotemporal association rules. Lake Van, the largest lake of Turkey, is a closed basin. This feature causes the volume of the lake to increase or decrease as a result of change in water amount it holds. In this study, evaporation, humidity, lake altitude, amount of rainfall and temperature parameters recorded in Lake Van region throughout the years are used by the Apriori algorithm and a spatio-temporal data mining application is developed to identify overflows and newlyformed soil regions (underflows) occurring in the coastal parts of Lake Van. Identifying possible reasons of overflows and underflows may be used to alert the experts to take precautions and make the necessary investments.

Keywords: Apriori algorithm, association rules, data mining, spatio-temporal data.

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Authors: Joseph S. Ojo, Vincent A. Akpan, Oladayo G. Ajileye, Olalekan L, Ojo

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In this paper, the intelligent algorithm (IA) that is capable of adapting to dynamical tropical weather conditions is proposed based on fuzzy logic techniques. The IA effectively interacts with the quality of service (QoS) criteria irrespective of the dynamic tropical weather to achieve improvement in the satellite links. To achieve this, an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been adopted. The algorithm is capable of interacting with the weather fluctuation to generate appropriate improvement to the satellite QoS for efficient services to the customers. 5-year (2012-2016) rainfall rate of one-minute integration time series data has been used to derive fading based on ITU-R P. 618-12 propagation models. The data are obtained from the measurement undertaken by the Communication Research Group (CRG), Physics Department, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria. The rain attenuation and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) were derived for frequency between Ku and V-band and propagation angle with respect to different transmitting power. The simulated results show a substantial reduction in SNR especially for application in the area of digital video broadcast-second generation coding modulation satellite networks.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, intelligent algorithm, Nigeria, QoS, satellite applications, tropical weather.

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Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H. Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

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The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: Automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC.

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Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Laura Scesi, Elena Cerino Adbin, Daniele Cremonesi

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The interaction of tunneling or mining with groundwater has become a very relevant problem not only due to the need to guarantee the safety of workers and to assure the efficiency of the tunnel drainage systems, but also to safeguard water resources from impoverishment and pollution risk. Therefore it is very important to forecast the drainage processes (i.e., the evaluation of drained discharge and drawdown caused by the excavation). The aim of this study was to know better the system and to quantify the flow drained from the Fontane mines, located in Val Germanasca (Turin, Italy). This allowed to understand the hydrogeological local changes in time. The work has therefore been structured as follows: the reconstruction of the conceptual model with the geological, hydrogeological and geological-structural study; the calculation of the tunnel inflows (through the use of structural methods) and the comparison with the measured flow rates; the water balance at the basin scale. In this way it was possible to understand what are the relationships between rainfall, groundwater level variations and the effect of the presence of tunnels as a means of draining water. Subsequently, it the effects produced by the excavation of the mining tunnels was quantified, through numerical modeling. In particular, the modeling made it possible to observe the drawdown variation as a function of number, excavation depth and different mines linings.

Keywords: Groundwater, Italy, numerical model, tunneling.

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Authors: W. Y. Wan Fairos, W. H. Wan Azaki, L. Mohamad Alias, Y. Bee Wah

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Dengue fever has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries. These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper, therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most. The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover, percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be significant only after 2 weeks.

Keywords: Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Negative Binomial Regression model, Poisson Regression model.

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Authors: ZerarkaHizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Equivalent deviatory strain, landslide, numerical modeling, topographic monitoring.

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Authors: M. E. Ghobadi, M. Ghobadi

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Waterlogging reduces shoot and root growth and final yield of wheat. Waterlogged sites have a combination of low slope, high rainfall, heavy texture and low permeability. This study was aimed the importance of waterlogging on root growth and wheat yield. In order to study the effects of different waterlogging duration (0, 10, 20 and 30 days) at growth stages (1-leaf stage, tillering stage and stem elongation stage) on root growth of wheat cultivars (Chamran, Vee/Nac and Yavaroos), one pot experiment was carried out. The experiment was a factorial according to a RCBD with three replications. Results showed that root dry weight and total root length in the anthesis and grain ripening stages and biological and grain yields were significantly different between cultivars, growth stages and waterlogging durations. Vee/Nac was found superior with respect to other cultivars. Susceptibility to waterlogging at different growth stages for cultivars was 1-leaf stage > tillering stage > stem elongation stage. Under waterlogging treatments, grain and biological yields, were decreased 44.5 and 39.8%, respectively. Root length and root dry weight were reduced 55.1 and 45.2%, respectively, too. In this experiment, decrease at root growth because of waterlogging reduced grain and biological yields. Based on the results, even short period (10 days) of waterlogging had unrecoverable effects on the root growth and grain yield of wheat.

Keywords: Wheat, waterlogging, root length, root dry weight, grain yield.

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Authors: Madhuri Bhavsar, Anupam K Singh, Shrikant Pradhan

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Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of global warming is creating complications in environmental issues. These factors which are data intensive require high performance computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface, secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for job execution. Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays an important role not only in business, but also in scientific implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change detection.

Keywords: Climate model, Computational Grid, GridApplication, Heterogeneous Grid

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Authors: George N. Zaimes, Valasia Iakovoglou, Paschalis Koutalakis, Konstantinos Ioannou, Ioannis Kosmadakis, Panagiotis Tsardaklis, Theodoros Laopoulos

Abstract:

The advancements in technology allow the development of a new system that can continuously measure surface soil erosion. Continuous soil erosion measurements are required in order to comprehend the erosional processes and propose effective and efficient conservation measures to mitigate surface erosion. Mitigating soil erosion, especially in Mediterranean countries such as Greece, is essential in order to maintain environmental and agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we present the Automated Soil Erosion Monitoring System (ASEMS) that measures surface soil erosion along with other factors that impact erosional process. Specifically, this system measures ground level changes (surface soil erosion), rainfall, air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture. Another important innovation is that the data will be collected by remote communication. In addition, stakeholder’s awareness is a key factor to help reduce any environmental problem. The different dissemination activities that were utilized are described. The overall outcomes were the development of a new innovative system that can measure erosion very accurately. These data from the system help study the process of erosion and find the best possible methods to reduce erosion. The dissemination activities enhance the stakeholders and public's awareness on surface soil erosion problems and will lead to the adoption of more effective soil erosion conservation practices in Greece.

Keywords: Soil management, climate change, new technologies, conservation practices.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

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The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: Daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events.

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