Impacts of Global Warming on the World Food Market According to SRES Scenarios

Authors: J. Furuya, S. Kobayashi, S. D. Meyer

Abstract:

This research examines possible effects of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model. Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or regions will have different trends depending on the context. These alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population, temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant further investigation.

Keywords: Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1060487

References:

[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Working Grope 1 (WG1) Technical Summary, 2007, pp59.
[2] S. P. Long, E. A. Ainsworth, A. D. B. Leakey, J. Nosberger, and D. R. Ort, "Food for Thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentration," Science, vol. 312, pp. 1918-1921, Jun. 2006
[3] D. B. Lobell and C. B. Field, "Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming," Environmental Research Letters, vol. 2, no. 014002, pp.1-7, 2007. (doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002)
[4] M. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer, and M. Livermore, "Climate change and world food security: a new assessment," Global Environmental Change, vol. 9, pp.S51-S67, 1999
[5] M. L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore, and G. Fischer, "Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios," Global Environmental Change, vol. 14, pp.53-67, 2004.
[6] M. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, and M. Livermore, "Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol.360, pp. 2125-2138, Oct. 2005.
[7] W. Wu, R. Shibasaki, P. Yang, G. Tan, K. Matsumura, and K. Sugimoto, "Global-scale modeling of future changes in sown areas of major crops," Ecological Modeling, vol.208, pp. 378-390, 2007.
[8] K. Oga and K. Yanagishima, IFPSIM International food and agricultural policy simulation model (User-s guide), JIRCAS Working Report, no.1, Tsukuba, Japan, 1996
[9] J. Furuya and O. Koyama, "Impacts of climatic change on world agricultural product markets: Estimation of macro yield functions", Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly, vol. 39, no. 2, pp.121-134, Apr. 2005.
[10] J. Furuya and S. Kobayashi, "Impact of global warming on agricultural product markets: stochastic world food model analysis," Sustainable Science, vol.4, pp. 71-79, 2009.
[11] IPCC working group III, "IPCC Special Report, Emissions Scenario, Summary for Policymaker," IPCC, 2000. Aveilable http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
[12] U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Major world crop areas and climatic profiles. Agricultural Handbook vol.664, Washington D.C., USA, 1994.