Multi-Objective Planning and Operation of Water Supply Systems Subject to Climate Change

Authors: B. J. C. Perera, D. A. Sachindra, W. Godoy., A.F. Barton, F. Huang

Abstract:

Many water supply systems in Australia are currently undergoing significant reconfiguration due to reductions in long term average rainfall and resulting low inflows to water supply reservoirs since the second half of the 20th century. When water supply systems undergo change, it is necessary to develop new operating rules, which should consider climate, because the climate change is likely to further reduce inflows. In addition, water resource systems are increasingly intended to be operated to meet complex and multiple objectives representing social, economic, environmental and sustainability criteria. This is further complicated by conflicting preferences on these objectives from diverse stakeholders. This paper describes a methodology to develop optimum operating rules for complex multi-reservoir systems undergoing significant change, considering all of the above issues. The methodology is demonstrated using the Grampians water supply system in northwest Victoria, Australia. Initial work conducted on the project is also presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, Multi-objective planning, Pareto optimal; Stakeholder preference, Statistical downscaling, Water supply systems.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1071714

References:

[1] Perry et al, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", 2007, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[2] P. Wallis, R. Birrell, D. Griggs, E. Healy, J. Langford, and J. Stanley, "Melbourne-s water situation: the opportunity for diverse solutions". Monash sustainability institute Report 09/2, 2009, Melbourne.
[3] A. Barton, S. Briggs, P. McRae-Williams, and D. Prior, "Coping with Severe Drought: Stories from the Front Line". Australian Journal of Water Resources, 2009, (to be published).
[4] A. Anandhi, V.V Srinivas, R.S Nanjundiah, and D. Nagesh Kumar, "Downscaling Precipitation to River Basin in India for IPCC SRES Scenarios using Support Vector Machine". International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28, 2008, pp. 401-420.
[5] S. Ghosh, and P.P. Mujumdar, "Statistical Downscaling of GCM Simulations to Streamflow using Relevance Vector Machine". Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 31, 2008, pp. 132-146.
[6] Q. Liang, L.E. Johnson, and Y.S. Yu, "A Comparison of Two Methods for Multiobjective Optimization for Reservoir Operation". Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 32, 1996, pp. 333-340.
[7] T.S. Chen, P.S. Yu, and Y.H. Tang, "Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation using support vector machines and multivariate analysis". Journal of Hydrology, 385, 2010, 13-22.
[8] Giorgi et al, "Climate change 2001, The scientific basis", contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the IPCC, Published online at http://www.grida.no/, Chapter 10, 2001, 583-638.
[9] R.L. Wilby and T.M.L Wigley, "Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships". International Journal of Climatology, 20, 2000, 641-661.
[10] S. Tripathi, V.V. Srinivas, and R.S. Nanjundiah, "Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: a support vector machine approach". Journal of Hydrology, 330, 2006, 621-640.
[11] A. Anandhi, V.V Srinivas, D.N. Kumar and R.S Nanjundiah, "Role of predictors in downscaling surface temperature to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine". International Journal of Climatology, 29, 2009, 583-603.
[12] R. Huth, "Statistical downscaling of daily temperature in central Europe". Journal of Climate, 15, 2002, 1731-1742.
[13] T. Salameh, P. Drobinski, M. Vrac, and P. Naveau. "Statistical downscaling of near-surface wind over complex terrain in southern France". Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric physics, 103, 2009, 253-265.
[14] C. Tisseuil, M. Vrac, S. Lek, and A.J. Wade, "Statistical downscaling of river flows". Journal of Hydrology, 385, 2010, 279-291.
[15] A.J. Cannon, and P.H. Whitfield, "Downscaling recent streamflow conditions in British Columbia Canada using ensemble neural network models". Journal of Hydrology, 259, 2002, 136-51.
[16] W.A. Landman, S.J. Mason, P.D. Tyson, and W.J. Tennant, "Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow". Journal of Hydrology, 252, 2001, 221-236.
[17] M.J. Reddy and D.N. Kumar, "Optimal Reservoir Operation using Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm". Water Resources Management, Vol. 20, No. 6, 2006, pp. 861-878.
[18] K. Deb, "Multi-Objective Optimization using Evolutionary Algorithms". John Wiley & Sons, 2001, Chichester, UK.
[19] M.J. Reddy and D.N. Kumar , "Multi-Objective Differential Evolution with Application to Reservoir System Optimization". Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2007, pp. 136- 146.
[20] K. Deb and J. Horn, "Introduction to the Special Issue: Multicriterion Optimization. Evolutionary Computation". Evolutionary Computation, Vol. 8(2), 2000, pp. 3-4.
[21] S. Mortazavi, L. Cui, and G. Kuczera, "Application of Multiobjective Optimisation Methods for Urban Water Management: A Case Study for Canberra Water Supply System". 32 nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Newcastle, Australia, 2009, pp. 887-898, CD-ROM.
[22] J.W. Labadie, "Optimal Operation of Multireservoir Systems: State-ofthe- Art Review". Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 130(2), 2004, 93-111.
[23] A.R.P. Neto, and E.V.G. Filho, "A simulation-based evolutionary multiobjective approach to manufacturing cell formation". Computers & Industrial Engineering, 59(1), 2010, 64-74.
[24] A.R. Simpson, G.C. Dandy, and L.J. Murphy, "Genetic Algorithms Compared to Other Techniques for Pipe Optimization". Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, American Society of Engineers, 120(4), 1994, 423-443.
[25] J.C, Pomerol, and S. Barba-Romero, "Multi-Criterion Decisions in Management: Principles and Practice", Kluwer, 2000, Massachusetts, USA.
[26] M.R. Ghanbarpour, Hippel, K. W., and Abbaspour, K. C. "Prioritizing Long-Term Watershed Management Strategies using Group Decision Analysis". International Journal of Water Resources Development, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2005, pp. 297-308.
[27] G. E. Galloway, "Julian Hinds Water Resources Development Award Lecture". Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 131, No. 4, 2005, 2004, pp. 251 - 252.
[28] L.J. Pearson, A. Coggan, W. Proctor and T.F. Smith, A Sustainable Decision Support Framework for Urban Water Management. Water Resources Management, 24(2), 2010, 363-376.
[29] B.J.C. Perera, B. James, and M.D.U.P. Kularathna, "Computer Software Tool REALM for Sustainable Water Allocation and Management". Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 77, 2005, pp. 291-300.
[30] B.J.C. Perera and B. James, "A Generalised Water Supply Simulation Computer Software package". Hydrology Journal, Institution of Engineers (India), 26(1-2), 2003, 67-83.
[31] Kalnay et al, "The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 1996, 437-471.
[32] A.J. Cannon, and P.H. Whitfield, "Downscaling recent streamflow conditions in British Columbia Canada using ensemble neural network models". Journal of Hydrology, 259, 2002, 136-51.
[33] S. Maheepala, and B.J.C. Perera, "Climate Change and Reliability of Urban Water Supply", Water Science and Technology, Vol. 47, No. 7-8, 2003, pp. 101-108.
[34] W.Wang, "Stochasticity, Nonlinearity and Forecasting of Streamflow Processes," Deft University Press, Amsterdam, 2006, pp. 72-73.
[35] V. Belton and T. J. Stewart, ÔÇÿMultiple Criteria Decision Analysis-. UK: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002, pp 372
[36] K.R.Barlow, . "Wimmera/Mallee Headworks System Reference Manual. Rural Water Commission of Victoria: Wimmera Region, Australia", 1987
[37] Tourism Victoria "Economic Importance of Tourism in Victoria-s Regions 2007-2008: Fact sheet" http://www.tourism.vic.gov.au/images/stories/Economic%20Importance %20Factsheet%202007-08.pdf,2011
[38] Department of Sustainability and Environment "Index of Stream Condition: The Second Benchmark of Victorian River Condition". Victorian Government, Melbourne, Australia, 2005
[39] GHD. "Report for Wimmera-Glenelg REALM Model Update: Volume 1 - Model Setup Report". Prepared for the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Melbourne, Australia, 2011