Search results for: Analytical approach

Authors: M. Yoneda

Abstract:

It is known that stationary human occupants act as dynamic mass-spring-damper systems and can change the modal properties of civil engineering structures. This paper describes the full scale measurement to explain the tuned mass damper effects of stationary people on structural damping of footbridge with center span length of 33 m. A human body can be represented by a lumped system consisting of masses, springs, and dashpots. Complex eigenvalue calculation is also conducted by using ISO5982:1981 human model (two degree of freedom system). Based on experimental and analytical results for the footbridge with the stationary people in the standing position, it is demonstrated that stationary people behave as a tuned mass damper and that ISO5982:1981 human model can explain the structural damping characteristics measured in the field.

Keywords: Dynamic interaction, footbridge, stationary people, structural damping.

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Authors: M. Oloomi-Buygi, M. Reza Salehizadeh

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In this paper a new approach for transmission pricing is presented. The main idea is voltage angle allocation, i.e. determining the contribution of each contract on the voltage angle of each bus. DC power flow is used to compute a primary solution for angle decomposition. To consider the impacts of system non-linearity on angle decomposition, the primary solution is corrected in different iterations of decoupled Newton-Raphson power flow. Then, the contribution of each contract on power flow of each transmission line is computed based on angle decomposition. Contract-related flows are used as a measure for “extent of use" of transmission network capacity and consequently transmission pricing. The presented approach is applied to a 4-bus test system and IEEE 30-bus test system.

Keywords: Deregulation, Power electric markets, Transmission pricing methodologies, decoupled Newton-Raphson power flow.

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Authors: A. Seleem, M. Mortada, M. El Morsi, M. Younan

Abstract:

Diffusion stills have been effective in water desalination. The present work represents a model of the distillation process by using vertical single-effect diffusion stills. A semianalytical model has been developed to model the process. A software computer code using Engineering Equation Solver EES software has been developed to solve the equations of the developed model. An experimental setup has been constructed, and used for the validation of the model. The model is also validated against former literature results. The results obtained from the present experimental test rig, and the data from the literature, have been compared with the results of the code to find its best range of validity. In addition, a parametric analysis of the system has been developed using the model to determine the effect of operating conditions on the system's performance. The dominant parameters that affect the productivity of the still are the hot plate temperature that ranges from (55- 90°C) and feed flow rate in range of (0.00694-0.0211 kg/m2-s).

Keywords: Analytical Model, Solar Distillation, Sustainable Water Systems, Vertical Diffusion Still.

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Authors: Halizah Awang, Ishak Ramly

Abstract:

Problem-based learning (PBL) is one of the student centered approaches and has been considered by a number of higher educational institutions in many parts of the world as a method of delivery. This paper presents a creative thinking approach for implementing Problem-based Learning in Mechanics of Structure within a Malaysian Polytechnics environment. In the learning process, students learn how to analyze the problem given among the students and sharing classroom knowledge into practice. Further, through this course-s emphasis on problem-based learning, students acquire creative thinking skills and professional skills as they tackle complex, interdisciplinary and real-situation problems. Once the creative ideas are generated, there are useful additional techniques for tender ideas that will grow into a productive concept or solution. The combination of creative skills and technical abilities will enable the students to be ready to “hit-the-ground-running" and produce in industry when they graduate.

Keywords: Creative Thinking Skills, Problem-based Learning, Problem Solving.

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Authors: Naresh Yadav, I.A. Khan, Sandeep Grover

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This paper presents a methodology for operational and economic characteristics based evaluation and selection of a power plant using Graph theoretic approach. A universal evaluation index on the basis of Operational and economics characteristics of a plant is proposed which evaluates and ranks the various types of power plants. The index thus obtained from the pool of operational characteristics of the power plant attributes Digraph. The Digraph is developed considering Operational and economics attributes of the power plants and their relative importance for their smooth operation, installation and commissioning and prioritizing their selection. The sensitivity analysis of the attributes towards the objective has also been carried out in order to study the impact of attributes over the desired outcome i.e. the universal operational-economics index of the power plant.

Keywords: Power plant evaluation, Digraph methods, Matrixmethod, operational characteristics of Power plant, Gas turbines

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Authors: HoYoung Son, DongHoon Shin, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

This study presented the seismic fragility framework of concrete weir structure subjected to strong seismic ground motions and in particular, concrete aging condition of the weir structure was taken into account in this study. In order to understand the influence of concrete aging on the weir structure, by using probabilistic risk assessment, the analytical seismic fragility of the weir structure was derived for pre- and post-deterioration of concrete. The performance of concrete weir structure after five years was assumed for the concrete aging or deterioration, and according to after five years’ condition, the elastic modulus was simply reduced about one–tenth compared with initial condition of weir structures. A 2D nonlinear finite element analysis was performed considering the deterioration of concrete in weir structures using ABAQUS platform, a commercial structural analysis program. Simplified concrete degradation was resulted in the increase of almost 45% of the probability of failure at Limit State 3, in comparison to initial construction stage, by analyzing the seismic fragility.

Keywords: Weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging

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Authors: Michael Torggler

Abstract:

Modern information and communication technologies offer a variety of support options for the efficient handling of customer relationships. CRM systems have been developed, which are designed to support the processes in the areas of marketing, sales and service. Along with technological progress, CRM systems are constantly changing, i.e. the systems are continually enhanced by new functions. However, not all functions are suitable for every company because of different frameworks and business processes. In this context the question arises whether or not CRM systems are widely used in Austrian companies and which business processes are most frequently supported by CRM systems. This paper aims to shed light on the popularity of CRM systems in Austrian companies in general and the use of different functions to support their daily business. First of all, the paper provides a theoretical overview of the structure of modern CRM systems and proposes a categorization of currently available software functionality for collaborative, operational and analytical CRM processes, which provides the theoretical background for the empirical study. Apart from these theoretical considerations, the paper presents the empirical results of a field survey on the use of CRM systems in Austrian companies and analyzes its findings.

Keywords: CRM systems, CRM system adoption, CRM system diffusion, CRM functionality, Market study.

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Authors: Fernando Miguel Campos, Carlos Ferreira, João Pestana, Pedro Campos, Nils Ehrenberg, Wojciech Hydzik

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The current trend of organizations offering their workers open-office spaces and co-working offices has been primed for stimulating teamwork and collaboration. However, this is not always valid as these kinds of spaces bring other types of challenges that compromise workers productivity and creativity. We present an approach for improving creativity and productivity at the workspace by redesigning an office chair that incorporates subtle technological elements that help users focus, relax and being more productive and creative. This sheds light on how we can better design interactive furniture for such popular contexts, as we develop this new chair through a multidisciplinary approach using ergonomics, interior design, interaction design, hardware and software engineering and psychology.

Keywords: Creativity, co-working, ergonomics, human-computer interaction, interaction, interactive furniture, productivity.

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Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

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In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: Change management, multi-project management, project management, change portfolio, supply chain management.

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Authors: Subarna Ferdous, Mitsuru Ikeda

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For the shrimp companies to remain relevant to its local and international consumers, they must offer new shrimp product and services. It must work actively not just to create value for the consumer, but to involve the consumer in co-creating value for shrimp product innovation in the market. In this theoretical work, we conceptualize the business concept of value co-creation in the context of shrimp products, and propose a framework of value co-creation for shrimp product innovation in shrimp industries. With guidance on value co-creation in in shrimp industry, and shrimp value chain actors mapped to the co-creation cycle, companies can use the framework to offer new shrimp product to consumer communities. Although customer co-creation is known approach in the world, it is not commonly used by the companies in Bangladesh. This paper makes an original contribution by conceptualizing co-creation and set the examples of best co-creation practices in food sector. The results of the study provide management with guidelines for successful co-creation projects with an innovation- and market-oriented approach. The framework also provides a basis for further research in this area.

Keywords: Bangladesh, shrimp industry, shrimp product, value co-creation.

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Authors: A. Alsaadi, B. Gholami

Abstract:

An effective approach for unbalanced three-phase distribution power flow solutions is proposed in this paper. The special topological characteristics of distribution networks have been fully utilized to make the direct solution possible. Two matrices–the bus-injection to branch-current matrix and the branch-current to busvoltage matrix– and a simple matrix multiplication are used to obtain power flow solutions. Due to the distinctive solution techniques of the proposed method, the time-consuming LU decomposition and forward/backward substitution of the Jacobian matrix or admittance matrix required in the traditional power flow methods are no longer necessary. Therefore, the proposed method is robust and time-efficient. Test results demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The proposed method shows great potential to be used in distribution automation applications.

Keywords: Distribution power flow, distribution automation system, radial network, unbalanced networks.

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Authors: Aldy Gunawan, Kien Ming Ng, Kim Leng Poh

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This paper presents a hybrid algorithm for solving a timetabling problem, which is commonly encountered in many universities. The problem combines both teacher assignment and course scheduling problems simultaneously, and is presented as a mathematical programming model. However, this problem becomes intractable and it is unlikely that a proven optimal solution can be obtained by an integer programming approach, especially for large problem instances. A hybrid algorithm that combines an integer programming approach, a greedy heuristic and a modified simulated annealing algorithm collaboratively is proposed to solve the problem. Several randomly generated data sets of sizes comparable to that of an institution in Indonesia are solved using the proposed algorithm. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can overcome difficulties of large problem sizes encountered in previous related works.

Keywords: Timetabling problem, mathematical programming model, hybrid algorithm, simulated annealing.

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Authors: Prakash G L, Thejaswini M, S H Manjula, K R Venugopal, L M Patnaik

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Computing and maintaining network structures for efficient data aggregation incurs high overhead for dynamic events where the set of nodes sensing an event changes with time. Moreover, structured approaches are sensitive to the waiting time that is used by nodes to wait for packets from their children before forwarding the packet to the sink. An optimal routing and data aggregation scheme for wireless sensor networks is proposed in this paper. We propose Tree on DAG (ToD), a semistructured approach that uses Dynamic Forwarding on an implicitly constructed structure composed of multiple shortest path trees to support network scalability. The key principle behind ToD is that adjacent nodes in a graph will have low stretch in one of these trees in ToD, thus resulting in early aggregation of packets. Based on simulations on a 2,000-node Mica2- based network, we conclude that efficient aggregation in large-scale networks can be achieved by our semistructured approach.

Keywords: Aggregation, Packet Merging, Query Processing.

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Authors: Ali M. Alakeel

Abstract:

Load balancing in distributed computer systems is the process of redistributing the work load among processors in the system to improve system performance. Most of previous research in using fuzzy logic for the purpose of load balancing has only concentrated in utilizing fuzzy logic concepts in describing processors load and tasks execution length. The responsibility of the fuzzy-based load balancing process itself, however, has not been discussed and in most reported work is assumed to be performed in a distributed fashion by all nodes in the network. This paper proposes a new fuzzy dynamic load balancing algorithm for homogenous distributed systems. The proposed algorithm utilizes fuzzy logic in dealing with inaccurate load information, making load distribution decisions, and maintaining overall system stability. In terms of control, we propose a new approach that specifies how, when, and by which node the load balancing is implemented. Our approach is called Centralized-But-Distributed (CBD).

Keywords: Dynamic load balancing, fuzzy logic, distributed systems, algorithm.

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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Authors: Redha Elhuni, M. Munir Ahmad

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The main purpose of this research is to construct a generic model for successful implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM) in Oil sector, and to find out the effects of this model on the organizational sustainability development (OSD) performance of Libyan oil and gas companies using the structured equation modeling (SEM) approach. The research approach covers both quantitative and qualitative methods. A questionnaire was developed in order to identify the quality factors that are seen by Libyan oil and gas companies to be critical to the success of TQM implementation. Hypotheses were developed to evaluate the impact of TQM implementation on O SD. Data analysis reveals that there is a significant positive effect of the TQM implementation on OSD. 24 quality factors are found to be critical and absolutely essential for successful TQM implementation. The results generated a structure of the TQMSD implementation framework based on the four major road map constructs (Top management commitment, employee involvement and participation, customer-driven processes, and continuous improvement culture).

Keywords: TQM, CQFs, Oil & Gas, OSD, Libya.

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Authors: A. Derardja, L. Baroura, M. Brioua

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The nanotechnology based on epitaxial systems includes single or arranged misfit dislocations. In general, whatever is the type of dislocation or the geometry of the array formed by the dislocations; it is important for experimental studies to know exactly the stress distribution for which there is no analytical expression [1, 2]. This work, using a numerical analysis, deals with relaxation of epitaxial layers having at their interface a periodic network of edge misfit dislocations. The stress distribution is estimated by using isotropic elasticity. The results show that the thickness of the two sheets is a crucial parameter in the stress distributions and then in the profile of the two sheets. A comparative study between the case of single dislocation and the case of parallel network shows that the layers relaxed better when the interface is covered by a parallel arrangement of misfit. Consequently, a single dislocation at the interface produces an important stress field which can be reduced by inserting a parallel network of dislocations with suitable periodicity.

Keywords: Parallel array of misfit, interface, isotropic elasticity, single crystalline substrates, coherent interface

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Authors: Mehdi Ghommem, Daniel Garcia, Nathan Collier, Victor Calo

Abstract:

We develop a fast, user-friendly implementation of a potential flow solver based on the unsteady vortex lattice method (UVLM). The computational framework uses the Python programming language which has easy integration with the scripts requiring computationally-expensive operations written in Fortran. The mixed-language approach enables high performance in terms of solution time and high flexibility in terms of easiness of code adaptation to different system configurations and applications. This computational tool is intended to predict the unsteady aerodynamic behavior of multiple moving bodies (e.g., flapping wings, rotating blades, suspension bridges...) subject to an incoming air. We simulate different aerodynamic problems to validate and illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the developed computational tool.

Keywords: Unsteady aerodynamics, numerical simulations, mixed-language approach, potential flow.

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Authors: R. Moosazadeh

Abstract:

Among the Ottomans, dress was one of the means of expression of the society to which an individual was belonged, and as much as the cloth of the dress, its color reflected the individual's class. Those cloths, and the type and color of the dresses that were worn in the court, were forbidden to ordinary people. In addition, whatever the person's position was, his/her clothes were changed according to that special time and position. The clothes that were worn on trips and ceremonies were different from ordinary clothes in everyday life. At the time of the Ottoman Empire and the old Turkey, the miniature forms, and historical manuscripts were an indicator of the time of that day, and each of them is used as a document from the history of that time for today. The method used in this study is descriptive-analytical and the data collection procedure has been done through library. In this article, the cloth, shape and form of the Kaftan is considered. Firstly, a summary of the history and an explanation of this style of dressing and the importance of it at that time are considered. Finally, by the completion of this research, some of the findings of this research are mentioned, such as the distinctive features of this style and the process of updating it to use it in the present era.

Keywords: Kaftan, cloth, Ottoman, Turkey.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: Cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm.

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Authors: Bin Cai, Shilong Wang, Haibo Hu

Abstract:

The job shop scheduling problem (JSSP) is a notoriously difficult problem in combinatorial optimization. This paper presents a hybrid artificial immune system for the JSSP with the objective of minimizing makespan. The proposed approach combines the artificial immune system, which has a powerful global exploration capability, with the local search method, which can exploit the optimal antibody. The antibody coding scheme is based on the operation based representation. The decoding procedure limits the search space to the set of full active schedules. In each generation, a local search heuristic based on the neighborhood structure proposed by Nowicki and Smutnicki is applied to improve the solutions. The approach is tested on 43 benchmark problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Artificial immune system, Job shop scheduling problem, Local search, Metaheuristic algorithm

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Authors: Henry J. Wattimanela, Udjianna S. Pasaribu, Nanang T. Puspito, Sapto W. Indratno

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Banda Sea Collision Zone (BSCZ) is the result of the interaction and convergence of Indo-Australian plate, Eurasian plate and Pacific plate. This location is located in eastern Indonesia. This zone has a very high seismic activity. In this research, we will calculate the rate (λ) and Mean Square Error (MSE). By this result, we will classification earthquakes distribution in the BSCZ with the point process approach. Chi-square is used to determine the type of earthquakes distribution in the sub region of BSCZ. The data used in this research is data of earthquakes with a magnitude ≥ 6 SR for the period 1964-2013 and sourced from BMKG Jakarta. This research is expected to contribute to the Moluccas Province and surrounding local governments in performing spatial plan document related to disaster management.

Keywords: Banda sea collision zone, earthquakes, mean square error, Poisson distribution, chi-square test.

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Authors: Rachid Ed-Dali, Khalid Elasri

Abstract:

Mass media seem to provide a rich content for language acquisition. Exposure to television, the Internet, the mobile phone and other technological gadgets and devices helps enrich the student’s lexicon positively as well as negatively. The difficulties encountered by students while learning and acquiring second languages in addition to their eagerness to comprehend the content of a particular program prompt them to diversify their methods so as to achieve their targets. The present study highlights the significance of certain media channels and their involvement in language acquisition with the employment of the Natural Approach to further grasp whether students, especially secondary and high school students, learn and acquire errors through watching subtitled television programs. The chief objective is investigating the deductive and inductive relevance of certain programs beside the involvement of peripheral learning while acquiring mistakes.

Keywords: Errors, mistakes, natural Approach, peripheral learning, solecism.

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Authors: Danielle Reichel, Antoine Druilhe, Tuan Dang

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Traditional development of wireless sensor network mote is generally based on SoC1 platform. Such method of development faces three main drawbacks: lack of flexibility in terms of development due to low resource and rigid architecture of SoC; low capability of evolution and portability versus performance if specific micro-controller architecture features are used; and the rapid obsolescence of micro-controller comparing to the long lifetime of power plants or any industrial installations. To overcome these drawbacks, we have explored a new approach of development of wireless sensor network mote using a hybrid FPGA technology. The application of such approach is illustrated through the implementation of an innovative wireless sensor network protocol called OCARI.

Keywords: Hybrid FPGA, Embedded system, Mote, flexibility, durability, OCARI protocol, SoC, Wireless Sensor Network

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Authors: Ramin Javadzadeh., Zahra Afsahi, MohammadReza Meybodi

Abstract:

The Artificial immune systems algorithms are Meta heuristic optimization method, which are used for clustering and pattern recognition applications are abundantly. These algorithms in multimodal optimization problems are more efficient than genetic algorithms. A major drawback in these algorithms is their slow convergence to global optimum and their weak stability can be considered in various running of these algorithms. In this paper, improved Artificial Immune System Algorithm is introduced for the first time to overcome its problems of artificial immune system. That use of the small size of a local search around the memory antibodies is used for improving the algorithm efficiently. The credibility of the proposed approach is evaluated by simulations, and it is shown that the proposed approach achieves better results can be achieved compared to the standard artificial immune system algorithms

Keywords: Artificial immune system, Cellular Automata, Cellular learning automata, Cellular learning automata, , Local search, Optimization.

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Authors: Aitor Barbero-López, Soumaya Chibily, Gerhard Scheepers, Thomas Grahn, Martti Venäläinen, Antti Haapala

Abstract:

Wood decay is addressed continuously within the wood industry through use and development of wood preservatives. The increasing awareness on the negative effects of many chemicals towards the environment is causing political restrictions in their use and creating more urgent need for research on green alternatives. This paper discusses some of the possible natural extracts for wood preserving applications and compares the analytical methods available for testing their behavior and efficiency against decay fungi. The results indicate that natural extracts have interesting chemical constituents that delay fungal growth but vary in efficiency depending on the chemical concentration and substrate used. Results also suggest that presence and redistribution of preservatives in wood during exposure trials can be assessed by spectral imaging methods although standardized methods are not available. This study concludes that, in addition to the many standard methods available, there is a need to develop new faster methods for screening potential preservative formulation while maintaining the comparability and relevance of results.

Keywords: Analytics, methods, preservatives, wood decay.

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Authors: Haythem Yahyaoui, Samir Moalla, Mounir Bouden, Skander Ghorbel

Abstract:

Nowadays, cloud environments are becoming a need for companies, this new technology gives the opportunities to access to the data anywhere and anytime. It also provides an optimized and secured access to the resources and gives more security for the data which is stored in the platform. However, some companies do not trust Cloud providers, they think that providers can access and modify some confidential data such as bank accounts. Many works have been done in this context, they conclude that encryption methods realized by providers ensure the confidentiality, but, they forgot that Cloud providers can decrypt the confidential resources. The best solution here is to apply some operations on the data before sending them to the provider Cloud in the objective to make them unreadable. The principal idea is to allow user how it can protect his data with his own methods. In this paper, we are going to demonstrate our approach and prove that is more efficient in term of execution time than some existing methods. This work aims at enhancing the quality of service of providers and ensuring the trust of the customers. 

Keywords: Confidentiality, cryptography, security issues, trust issues.

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Authors: Samia Alblwi, Amani Ayad

Abstract:

Mutation testing is the art of generating syntactic variations of a base program and checking whether a candidate test suite can identify all the mutants that are not semantically equivalent to the base; this technique can be used to assess the quality of test suite. One of the main obstacles to the widespread use of mutation testing is cost, as even small programs (a few dozen lines of code) can give rise to a large number of mutants (up to hundreds); this has created an incentive to seek to reduce the number of mutants while preserving their collective effectiveness. Two criteria have been used to reduce the size of mutant sets: equivalence, which aims to partition the set of mutants into equivalence classes modulo semantic equivalence, and selecting one representative per class; and, subsumption, which aims to define a partial ordering among mutants that ranks mutants by effectiveness and seeks to select maximal elements in this ordering. In this paper, we analyze these two policies using analytical and empirical criteria.

Keywords: Mutation testing, mutant sets, mutant equivalence, mutant subsumption, mutant set minimization.

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Authors: Ali Taee Zade, Siamak Rasulzadeh, Reza Torkashvan

Abstract:

Although Model Driven Architecture has taken successful steps toward model-based software development, this approach still faces complex situations and ambiguous questions while applying to real world software systems. One of these questions - which has taken the most interest and focus - is how model transforms between different abstraction levels, MDA proposes. In this paper, we propose an approach based on Story Driven Modeling and Aspect Oriented Programming to ease these transformations. Service Oriented Architecture is taken as the target model to test the proposed mechanism in a functional system. Service Oriented Architecture and Model Driven Architecture [1] are both considered as the frontiers of their own domain in the software world. Following components - which was the greatest step after object oriented - SOA is introduced, focusing on more integrated and automated software solutions. On the other hand - and from the designers' point of view - MDA is just initiating another evolution. MDA is considered as the next big step after UML in designing domain.

Keywords: SOA, MDA, SDM, Model Transformation, Middleware Transparency, Aspects and Jini.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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