Search results for: ultrasonic simulation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3584

Search results for: ultrasonic simulation.

3464 Study on Discontinuity Properties of Phased-Array Ultrasound Transducer Affecting to Sound Pressure Fields Pattern

Authors: Tran Trong Thang, Nguyen Phan Kien, Trinh Quang Duc

Abstract:

The phased-array ultrasound transducer types are utilities for medical ultrasonography as well as optical imaging. However, their discontinuity characteristic limits the applications due to the artifacts contaminated into the reconstructed images. Because of the effects of the ultrasound pressure field pattern to the echo ultrasonic waves as well as the optical modulated signal, the side lobes of the focused ultrasound beam induced by discontinuity of the phased-array ultrasound transducer might the reason of the artifacts. In this paper, a simple method in approach of numerical simulation was used to investigate the limitation of discontinuity of the elements in phased-array ultrasound transducer and their effects to the ultrasound pressure field. Take into account the change of ultrasound pressure field patterns in the conditions of variation of the pitches between elements of the phased-array ultrasound transducer, the appropriated parameters for phased-array ultrasound transducer design were asserted quantitatively.

Keywords: Phased-array ultrasound transducer, sound pressure pattern, discontinuous sound field, numerical visualization.

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3463 Modeling and Simulation of Motion of an Underwater Robot Glider for Shallow-water Ocean Applications

Authors: Chen Wang, Amir Anvar

Abstract:

This paper describes the modeling and simulation of an underwater robot glider used in the shallow-water environment. We followed the Equations of motion derived by [2] and simplified dynamic Equations of motion of an underwater glider according to our underwater glider. A simulation code is built and operated in the MATLAB Simulink environment so that we can make improvements to our testing glider design. It may be also used to validate a robot glider design.

Keywords: AUV, underwater glider, robot, modeling, simulation.

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3462 Simulating a Single-Server Queue using the Q – Simulator

Authors: Irene K. Amponsah, Bennony K. Gordor, Francis Dogbey

Abstract:

This paper introduces a technique for simulating a single-server exponential queuing system. The technique called the Q-Simulator is a computer program which can simulate the effect of traffic intensity on all system average quantities given the arrival and/or service rates. The Q-Simulator has three phases namely: the formula based method, the uncontrolled simulation, and the controlled simulation. The Q-Simulator generates graphs (crystal solutions) for all results of the simulation or calculation and can be used to estimate desirable average quantities such as waiting times, queue lengths, etc.

Keywords: Automation system-Simulator, Simulation, Singleserver exponential system

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3461 Simulation for Squat Exercise of an Active Controlled Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System for Astronaut’s Exercise Platform

Authors: Ziraguen O. Williams, Shield B. Lin, Fouad N. Matari, Leslie J. Quiocho

Abstract:

In a task to assist NASA in analyzing the dynamic forces caused by operational countermeasures of an astronaut’s exercise platform impacting the spacecraft, feedback delay and signal noise were added to a simulation model of an active controlled vibration isolation and stabilization system to regulate the movement of the exercise platform. Two additional simulation tools used in this study were Trick and MBDyn, software simulation environments developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. Simulation results obtained from these three tools were very similar. All simulation results support the hypothesis that an active controlled vibration isolation and stabilization system outperforms a passive controlled system even with the addition of feedback delay and signal noise to the active controlled system. In this paper, squat exercise was used in creating excited force to the simulation model. The exciter force from squat exercise was calculated from motion capture of an exerciser. The simulation results demonstrate much greater transmitted force reduction in the active controlled system than the passive controlled system.

Keywords: Astronaut, counterweight, stabilization, vibration.

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3460 A Two-Phase Mechanism for Agent's Action Selection in Soccer Simulation

Authors: Vahid Salmani, Mahmoud Naghibzadeh, Farid Seifi, Amirhossein Taherinia

Abstract:

Soccer simulation is an effort to motivate researchers and practitioners to do artificial and robotic intelligence research; and at the same time put into practice and test the results. Many researchers and practitioners throughout the world are continuously working to polish their ideas and improve their implemented systems. At the same time, new groups are forming and they bring bright new thoughts to the field. The research includes designing and executing robotic soccer simulation algorithms. In our research, a soccer simulation player is considered to be an intelligent agent that is capable of receiving information from the environment, analyze it and to choose the best action from a set of possible ones, for its next move. We concentrate on developing a two-phase method for the soccer player agent to choose its best next move. The method is then implemented into our software system called Nexus simulation team of Ferdowsi University. This system is based on TsinghuAeolus[1] team that was the champion of the world RoboCup soccer simulation contest in 2001 and 2002.

Keywords: RoboCup, Soccer simulation, multi-agent environment, intelligent soccer agent, ball controller agent.

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3459 Design of Air Conditioning Automation for Patisserie Shopwindow

Authors: Kemal Tutuncu, Recai Ozcan

Abstract:

Having done in this study, air-conditioning automation for patisserie shopwindow was designed. In the cooling sector it is quite important to cooling up the air temperature in the shopwindow within short time interval. Otherwise the patisseries inside of the shopwindow will be spoilt in a few days. Additionally the humidity is other important parameter for the patisseries kept in shopwindow. It must be raised up to desired level in a quite short time. Traditional patisserie shopwindows only allow controlling temperature manually. There is no humidity control and humidity is supplied by fans that are directed to the water at the bottom of the shopwindows. In this study, humidity and temperature sensors (SHT11), PIC, AC motor controller, DC motor controller, ultrasonic nebulizer and other electronic circuit members were used to simulate air conditioning automation for patisserie shopwindow in proteus software package. The simulation results showed that temperature and humidity values are adjusted in desired time duration by openloop control technique. Outer and inner temperature and humidity values were used for control mechanism.

Keywords: Air conditioning automation, temperature and humidity, SHT11, AC motor controller, open-loop control.

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3458 Preliminary Design of Frozen Soil Simulation System Based on Finite Element Simulation

Authors: Wenyu Song, Bingxi Li, Zhongbin Fu, Baocheng Jiang

Abstract:

Full - Scale Accelerated Loading System, one part of “the Eleventh - Five - Year National Grand Technology Infrastructure Program" is a facility to evaluate the performance and service life of different kinds of pavements subjected to traffic loading under full - controlled environment. While simulating the environments of frigid zone and permafrost zone, the accurate control of air temperature, road temperature and roadbed temperature are the key points and also aporias for the designment. In this paper, numerical simulations are used to determine the design parameters of the frozen soil simulation system. At first, a brief introduction of the Full - Scale Accelerate Loading System was given. Then, the temperature control method of frozen soil simulation system was proposed. Finally, by using finite element simulations, the optimal design of frozen soil simulation system was obtained. This proposed design, which was obtained by finite element simulations, provided significant referents to the ultimate design of the environment simulation system.

Keywords: China, finite element simulation, frozen soilsimulation system, preliminary design.

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3457 Improvement of Central Composite Design in Modeling and Optimization of Simulation Experiments

Authors: A. Nuchitprasittichai, N. Lerdritsirikoon, T. Khamsing

Abstract:

Simulation modeling can be used to solve real world problems. It provides an understanding of a complex system. To develop a simplified model of process simulation, a suitable experimental design is required to be able to capture surface characteristics. This paper presents the experimental design and algorithm used to model the process simulation for optimization problem. The CO2 liquefaction based on external refrigeration with two refrigeration circuits was used as a simulation case study. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was purposed to combine with existing Central Composite Design (CCD) samples to improve the performance of CCD in generating the second order model of the system. The second order model was then used as the objective function of the optimization problem. The results showed that adding LHS samples to CCD samples can help capture surface curvature characteristics. Suitable number of LHS sample points should be considered in order to get an accurate nonlinear model with minimum number of simulation experiments.

Keywords: Central composite design, CO2 liquefaction, Latin Hypercube Sampling, simulation – based optimization.

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3456 The Effect of Clamping Restrain on the Prediction of Drape Simulation Software Tool

Authors: T.A. Adegbola, IEA Aghachi, E.R. Sadiku

Abstract:

To investigates the effect of fiberglass clamping process improvement on drape simulation prediction. This has great effect on the mould and the fiber during manufacturing process. This also, improves the fiber strain, the quality of the fiber orientation in the area of folding and wrinkles formation during the press-forming process. Drape simulation software tool was used to digitalize the process, noting the formation problems on the contour sensitive part. This was compared with the real life clamping processes using single and double frame set-ups to observe the effects. Also, restrains are introduced by using clips, and the G-clamps with predetermine revolution to; restrain the fabric deformation during the forming process.The incorporation of clamping and fabric restrain deformation improved on the prediction of the simulation tool. Therefore, for effective forming process, incorporation of clamping process into the drape simulation process will assist in the development of fiberglass application in manufacturing process.

Keywords: clamping, fiberglass, drape simulation, pressforming.

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3455 Simulation of the Evacuation of Ships Carrying Dangerous Goods from Tsunami

Authors: Yoshinori Matsuura, Saori Iwanaga

Abstract:

The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred at 14:46 on Friday, March 11, 2011. It was the most powerful known earthquake to have hit Japan. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of up to 40.5 meters in height. We focus on the ship’s evacuation from tsunami. Then we analyze about ships evacuation from tsunami using multi-agent simulation and we want to prepare for a coming earthquake. We developed a simulation model of ships that set sail from the port in order to evacuate from the tsunami considering the ship carrying dangerous goods.

Keywords: Multi-agent simulation, Ship’s evacuation, Tsunami.

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3454 Simulation of the Airflow Characteristic inside a Hard Disk Drive by Applying a Computational Fluid Dynamics Software

Authors: Chanchal Saha, Huynh Trung Luong, M. H. Aziz, Tharinan Rattanalert

Abstract:

Now-a-days, numbers of simulation software are being used all over the world to solve Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) related problems. In this present study, a commercial CFD simulation software namely STAR-CCM+ is applied to analyze the airflow characteristics inside a 2.5" hard disk drive. Each step of the software is described adequately to obtain the output and the data are verified with the theories to justify the robustness of the simulation outcome. This study gives an insight about the accuracy level of the CFD simulation software to compute CFD related problems although it largely depends upon the computer speed. Also this study will open avenues for further research.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, Hard disk drive, Meshing, Recirculation filter, and Filter physics parameter.

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3453 The Temperature Range in the Simulation of Residual Stress and Hot Tearing During Investment Casting

Authors: Saeid Norouzi, Ali Shams, Hassan Farhangi, Alireza Darvish

Abstract:

Hot tear cracking and residual stress are two different consequences of thermal stress both of which can be considered as casting problem. The purpose of the present study is simulation of the effect of casting shape characteristic on hot tearing and residual stress. This study shows that the temperature range for simulation of hot tearing and residual stress are different. In this study, in order to study the development of thermal stress and to predict the hot tearing and residual stress of shaped casting, MAGMASOFT simulation program was used. The strategy of this research was the prediction of hot tear location using pinpointing hot spot and thermal stress concentration zones. The results shows that existing of stress concentration zone increases the hot tearing probability and consequently reduces the amount of remaining residual stress in casting parts.

Keywords: Hot tearing, residual stress, simulation, investment casting.

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3452 Asynchronous Microcontroller Simulation Model in VHDL

Authors: M. Kovac

Abstract:

This article describes design of the 8-bit asynchronous microcontroller simulation model in VHDL. The model is created in ISE Foundation design tool and simulated in Modelsim tool. This model is a simple application example of asynchronous systems designed in synchronous design tools. The design process of creating asynchronous system with 4-phase bundled-data protocol and with matching delays is described in the article. The model is described in gate-level abstraction. The simulation waveform of the functional construction is the result of this article. Described construction covers only the simulation model. The next step would be creating synthesizable model to FPGA.

Keywords: Asynchronous, Microcontroller, VHDL, FPGA.

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3451 Application of Simulation and Response Surface to Optimize Hospital Resources

Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, Francis Amagoh

Abstract:

This paper presents a case study that uses processoriented simulation to identify bottlenecks in the service delivery system in an emergency department of a hospital in the United Arab Emirates. Using results of the simulation, response surface models were developed to explain patient waiting time and the total time patients spend in the hospital system. Results of the study could be used as a service improvement tool to help hospital management in improving patient throughput and service quality in the hospital system.

Keywords: Simulation, Hospital Service, Resource Utilization, United Arab Emirates.

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3450 Compact Model of Dual-Drain MAGFETs Simulation

Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

Abstract:

This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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3449 Cities Simulation and Representation in Locative Games from the Perspective of Cultural Studies

Authors: B. A. A. Paixão, J. V. B. Gomide

Abstract:

This work aims to analyze the locative structure used by the locative games of the company Niantic. To fulfill this objective, a literature review on the representation and simulation of cities was developed; interviews with Ingress players and playing Ingress. Relating these data, it was possible to deepen the relationship between the virtual and the real to create the simulation of cities and their cultural objects in locative games. Cities representation associates geo-location provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS), with augmented reality and digital image, and provides a new paradigm in the city interaction with its parts and real and virtual world elements, homeomorphic to real world. Bibliographic review of papers related to the representation and simulation study and their application in locative games was carried out and is presented in the present paper. The cities representation and simulation concepts in locative games, and how this setting enables the flow and immersion in urban space, are analyzed. Some examples of games are discussed for this new setting development, which is a mix of real and virtual world. Finally, it was proposed a Locative Structure for electronic games using the concepts of heterotrophic representations and isotropic representations conjoined with immediacy and hypermediacy.

Keywords: Cities representation, city simulation, games simulation, locative games.

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3448 Forest Growth Simulation: Tropical Rain Forest Stand Table Projection

Authors: Yasmin Yahya, Roslan Ismail, Samreth Vanna, Khorn Saret

Abstract:

The study on the tree growth for four species groups of commercial timber in Koh Kong province, Cambodia-s tropical rainforest is described. The simulation for these four groups had been successfully developed in the 5-year interval through year-60. Data were obtained from twenty permanent sample plots in the duration of thirteen years. The aim for this study was to develop stand table simulation system of tree growth by the species group. There were five steps involved in the development of the tree growth simulation: aggregate the tree species into meaningful groups by using cluster analysis; allocate the trees in the diameter classes by the species group; observe the diameter movement of the species group. The diameter growth rate, mortality rate and recruitment rate were calculated by using some mathematical formula. Simulation equation had been created by combining those parameters. Result showed the dissimilarity of the diameter growth among species groups.

Keywords: cluster analysis, diameter growth, simulation

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3447 CFD Simulation of Fixed Bed Reactor in Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis of GTL Technology

Authors: Sh. Shahhosseini, S. Alinia, M. Irani

Abstract:

In this paper 2D Simulation of catalytic Fixed Bed Reactor in Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis of GTL technology has been performed utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Synthesis gas (a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen) has been used as feedstock. The reactor was modeled and the model equations were solved employing finite volume method. The model was validated against the experimental data reported in literature. The comparison showed a good agreement between simulation results and the experimental data. In addition, the model was applied to predict the concentration contours of the reactants and products along the length of reactor.

Keywords: GTL, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, Fixed Bed Reactor, CFD simulation.

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3446 Aspen Plus Simulation of Saponification of Ethyl Acetate in the Presence of Sodium Hydroxide in a Plug Flow Reactor

Authors: U. P. L. Wijayarathne, K. C. Wasalathilake

Abstract:

This work presents the modelling and simulation of saponification of ethyl acetate in the presence of sodium hydroxide in a plug flow reactor using Aspen Plus simulation software. Plug flow reactors are widely used in the industry due to the non-mixing property. The use of plug flow reactors becomes significant when there is a need for continuous large scale reaction or fast reaction. Plug flow reactors have a high volumetric unit conversion as the occurrence for side reactions is minimum. In this research Aspen Plus V8.0 has been successfully used to simulate the plug flow reactor. In order to simulate the process as accurately as possible HYSYS Peng- Robinson EOS package was used as the property method. The results obtained from the simulation were verified by the experiment carried out in the EDIBON plug flow reactor module. The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.98 and it proved that simulation results satisfactorily fit for the experimental model. The developed model can be used as a guide for understanding the reaction kinetics of a plug flow reactor.

Keywords: Aspen Plus, Modelling, Plug Flow Reactor, Simulation.

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3445 Practical Application of Simulation of Business Processes

Authors: Markéta Gregušová, Vladimíra Schindlerová, Ivana Šajdlerová, Petr Mohyla, Jan Kedroň

Abstract:

Company managers are always looking for more and more opportunities to succeed in today's fiercely competitive market. To maintain your place among the successful companies on the market today or to come up with a revolutionary business idea is much more difficult than before. Each new or improved method, tool, or approach that can improve the functioning of business processes or even of the entire system is worth checking and verification. The use of simulation in the design of manufacturing systems and their management in practice is one of the ways without increased risk, which makes it possible to find the optimal parameters of manufacturing processes and systems. The paper presents an example of use of simulation for solution of the bottleneck problem in the concrete company.

Keywords: Practical applications, business processes, systems, simulation.

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3444 Numerical Simulation of Liquid Nitrogen Spray Equipment for Space Environmental Simulation Facility

Authors: He Chao, Zhang Lei, Liu Ran, Li Ang

Abstract:

Temperature regulating system by gaseous nitrogen is of importance to the space environment simulator, which keeps the shrouds in the temperature range from -150°C to +150°C. Liquid nitrogen spray equipment is one of the most critical parts in the temperature regulating system by gaseous nitrogen. Y type jet atomizer and internal mixing atomizer of the liquid nitrogen spray equipment are studied in this paper, 2D/3D atomizer model was established and grid division was conducted respectively by the software of Catia and ICEM. Based on the above preparation, numerical simulation on the spraying process of the atomizer by FLUENT is performed. Using air and water as the medium, comparison between the tests and numerical simulation was conducted and the results of two ways match well. Hence, it can be conclude that this atomizer model can be applied in the numerical simulation of liquid nitrogen spray equipment.

Keywords: Space environmental simulator, liquid nitrogen spray, Y type jet atomizer, internal mixing atomizer, numerical simulation, fluent.

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3443 Simulation of Sample Paths of Non Gaussian Stationary Random Fields

Authors: Fabrice Poirion, Benedicte Puig

Abstract:

Mathematical justifications are given for a simulation technique of multivariate nonGaussian random processes and fields based on Rosenblatt-s transformation of Gaussian processes. Different types of convergences are given for the approaching sequence. Moreover an original numerical method is proposed in order to solve the functional equation yielding the underlying Gaussian process autocorrelation function.

Keywords: Simulation, nonGaussian, random field, multivariate, stochastic process.

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3442 Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Threephase Small Power Induction Motor

Authors: Nyein Nyein Soe, Thet Thet Han Yee, Soe Sandar Aung

Abstract:

This paper is proposed the dynamic simulation of small power induction motor based on Mathematical modeling. The dynamic simulation is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive systems and it is needed for eliminating inadvertent design mistakes and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. This paper demonstrates the simulation of steady-state performance of induction motor by MATLAB Program Three phase 3 hp induction motor is modeled and simulated with SIMULINK model.

Keywords: Squirrel cage induction motor, modeling andsimulation, MATLAB software, torque, speed.

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3441 Finite Element Simulation of Deep Drawing Process to Minimize Earing

Authors: Pawan S. Nagda, Purnank S. Bhatt, Mit K. Shah

Abstract:

Earing defect in drawing process is highly undesirable not only because it adds on an additional trimming operation but also because the uneven material flow demands extra care. The objective of this work is to study the earing problem in the Deep Drawing of circular cup and to optimize the blank shape to reduce the earing. A finite element model is developed for 3-D numerical simulation of cup forming process in ABAQUS. Extra-deep-drawing (EDD) steel sheet has been used for simulation. Properties and tool design parameters were used as input for simulation. Earing was observed in the simulated cup and it was measured at various angles with respect to rolling direction. To reduce the earing defect initial blank shape was modified with the help of anisotropy coefficient. Modified blanks showed notable reduction in earing.

Keywords: Finite element simulation, deep drawing, earing, anisotropy.

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3440 A Tutorial on Dynamic Simulation of DC Motor and Implementation of Kalman Filter on a Floating Point DSP

Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy

Abstract:

With the advent of inexpensive 32 bit floating point digital signal processor-s availability in market, many computationally intensive algorithms such as Kalman filter becomes feasible to implement in real time. Dynamic simulation of a self excited DC motor using second order state variable model and implementation of Kalman Filter in a floating point DSP TMS320C6713 is presented in this paper with an objective to introduce and implement such an algorithm, for beginners. A fractional hp DC motor is simulated in both Matlab® and DSP and the results are included. A step by step approach for simulation of DC motor in Matlab® and “C" routines in CC Studio® is also given. CC studio® project file details and environmental setting requirements are addressed. This tutorial can be used with 6713 DSK, which is based on floating point DSP and CC Studio either in hardware mode or in simulation mode.

Keywords: DC motor, DSP, Dynamic simulation, Kalman Filter

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3439 Energy Consumption and GHG Production in Railway and Road Passenger Regional Transport

Authors: Martin Kendra, Tomas Skrucany, Jozef Gnap, Jan Ponicky

Abstract:

Paper deals with the modeling and simulation of energy consumption and GHG production of two different modes of regional passenger transport – road and railway. These two transport modes use the same type of fuel – diesel. Modeling and simulation of the energy consumption in transport is often used due to calculation satisfactory accuracy and cost efficiency. Paper deals with the calculation based on EN standards and information collected from technical information from vehicle producers and characteristics of tracks. Calculation included maximal theoretical capacity of bus and train and real passenger’s measurement from operation. Final energy consumption and GHG production is calculated by using software simulation. In evaluation of the simulation is used system “well to wheel”.

Keywords: Bus, energy consumption, GHG, production, simulation, train.

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3438 Line Balancing in the Hard Disk Drive Process Using Simulation Techniques

Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

Abstract:

Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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3437 Strategic Management via System Dynamics Simulation Models

Authors: G. Papageorgiou, A. Hadjis

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of strategic management in highly turbulent dynamic business environmental conditions. As shown the high complexity of the problem can be managed with the use of System Dynamics Models and Computer Simulation in obtaining insights, and thorough understanding of the interdependencies between the organizational structure and the business environmental elements, so that effective product –market strategies can be designed. Simulation reveals the underlying forces that hold together the structure of an organizational system in relation to its environment. Such knowledge will contribute to the avoidance of fundamental planning errors and enable appropriate proactive well focused action.

Keywords: Strategic Management, System Dynamics, Modelingand Simulation, Strategic Planning, Organizational Dynamics

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3436 Numerical Simulation of Deoilin Hydrocyclones

Authors: Reza Maddahian, Bijan Farhanieh, Simin Dokht Saemi

Abstract:

In this research the separation efficiency of deoiling hydrocyclone is evaluated using three-dimensional simulation of multiphase flow based on Eulerian-Eulerian finite volume method. The mixture approach of Reynolds Stress Model is also employed to capture the features of turbulent multiphase swirling flow. The obtained separation efficiency of Colman's design is compared with available experimental data and showed that the separation curve of deoiling hydrocyclones can be predicted using numerical simulation.

Keywords: Deoiling hydrocyclone, Eulerian-Eulerian Model, Numerical simulation, Separation efficiency, Reynolds Stress Model

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3435 Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances

Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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