Search results for: user-defined material model.

Authors: M. Ferguson, T. Konkova, I. Violatos

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Microstructure analysis of additively manufactured (AM) materials is an important step in understanding the interrelationship between mechanical properties and materials performance. Literature on the effect of a laser-based AM process parameters on the microstructure in the substrate-deposit interface is limited. The interface region, the adjoining area of substrate and deposit, is characterized by the presence of the fusion zone (FZ) and heat affected zone (HAZ) experiencing rapid thermal gyrations resulting in thermal induced transformations. Inconel 718 was utilized as a work material for both the substrate and deposit. Three blocks of Inconel 718 material were deposited by Direct Energy Deposition (DED) using three different laser powers, 550W, 750W and 950W, respectively. A coupled thermo-mechanical transient approach was utilized to correlate temperature history to the evolution of microstructure. Thermal history of the deposition process was monitored with the thermocouples installed inside the substrate material. Interface region of the blocks were analysed with Optical Microscopy (OM) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) including electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) technique. Laser power was found to influence the dissolution of intermetallic precipitated phases in the substrate and grain growth in the interface region. Microstructure and thermal history data were utilized to draw conclusive comparisons between the investigated process parameters.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, direct energy deposition, electron back-scatter diffraction, finite element analysis, Inconel 718, microstructure, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, substrate-deposit interface region.

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Authors: Omolola A. Tajelawi, Hari L. Garbharran

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Revenue leakages are one of the major challenges manufacturers face in production processes, as most of the input materials that should emanate as products from the lines are lost as waste. Rather than generating income from material input which is meant to end-up as products, losses are further incurred as costs in order to manage waste generated. In addition, due to the lack of a clear view of the flow of resources on the lines from input to output stage, acquiring information on the true cost of waste generated have become a challenge. This has therefore given birth to the conceptualization and implementation of waste minimization strategies by several manufacturing industries. This paper reviews the principles and applications of three environmental management accounting tools namely Activity-based Costing (ABC), Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Material Flow Cost Accounting (MFCA) in the manufacturing industry and their effectiveness in curbing revenue leakages. The paper unveils the strengths and limitations of each of the tools; beaming a searchlight on the tool that could allow for optimal resource utilization, transparency in production process as well as improved cost efficiency. Findings from this review reveal that MFCA may offer superior advantages with regards to the provision of more detailed information (both in physical and monetary terms) on the flow of material inputs throughout the production process compared to the other environmental accounting tools. This paper therefore makes a case for the adoption of MFCA as a viable technique for the identification and reduction of waste in production processes, and also for effective decision making by production managers, financial advisors and other relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: MFCA, environmental management accounting, resource efficiency, waste reduction, revenue losses.

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Authors: W. Kultangwattana, K. Somkantha, P. Phuangsuwan

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This paper presents a technique for diagnosis of the abdominal aorta aneurysm in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images. First, our technique is designed to segment the aorta image in MRI images. This is a required step to determine the volume of aorta image which is the important step for diagnosis of the abdominal aorta aneurysm. Our proposed technique can detect the volume of aorta in MRI images using a new external energy for snakes model. The new external energy for snakes model is calculated from Law-s texture. The new external energy can increase the capture range of snakes model efficiently more than the old external energy of snakes models. Second, our technique is designed to diagnose the abdominal aorta aneurysm by Bayesian classifier which is classification models based on statistical theory. The feature for data classification of abdominal aorta aneurysm was derived from the contour of aorta images which was a result from segmenting of our snakes model, i.e., area, perimeter and compactness. We also compare the proposed technique with the traditional snakes model. In our experiment results, 30 images are trained, 20 images are tested and compared with expert opinion. The experimental results show that our technique is able to provide more accurate results than 95%.

Keywords: Adbominal Aorta Aneurysm, Bayesian Classifier, Snakes Model, Texture Feature.

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Authors: Jaemoon Lim

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To construct the lumped spring-mass model considering the occupants for the offset frontal crash, the SISAME software and the NHTSA test data were used. The data on 56 kph 40% offset frontal vehicle to deformable barrier crash test of a MY2007 Mazda 6 4-door sedan were obtained from NHTSA test database. The overall behaviors of B-pillar and engine of simulation models agreed very well with the test data. The trends of accelerations at the driver and passenger head were similar but big differences in peak values. The differences of peak values caused the large errors of the HIC36 and 3 ms chest g’s. To predict well the behaviors of dummies, the spring-mass model for the offset frontal crash needs to be improved.

Keywords: Chest g’s, HIC36, lumped spring-mass model, offset frontal impact, SISAME.

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Authors: Taru Hakanen, Mervi Murtonen

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This study aims to increase understanding of the transition of business models in servitization. The significance of service in all business has increased dramatically during the past decades. Service-dominant logic (SDL) describes this change in the economy and questions the goods-dominant logic on which business has primarily been based in the past. A business model canvas is one of the most cited and used tools in defining end developing business models. The starting point of this paper lies in the notion that the traditional business model canvas is inherently goods-oriented and best suits for product-based business. However, the basic differences between goods and services necessitate changes in business model representations when proceeding in servitization. Therefore, new knowledge is needed on how the conception of business model and the business model canvas as its representation should be altered in servitized firms in order to better serve business developers and interfirm co-creation. That is to say, compared to products, services are intangible and they are co-produced between the supplier and the customer. Value is always co-created in interaction between a supplier and a customer, and customer experience primarily depends on how well the interaction succeeds between the actors. The role of service experience is even stronger in service business compared to product business, as services are co-produced with the customer. This paper provides business model developers with a service business model canvas, which takes into account the intangible, interactive, and relational nature of service. The study employs a design science approach that contributes to theory development via design artifacts. This study utilizes qualitative data gathered in workshops with ten companies from various industries. In particular, key differences between Goods-dominant logic (GDL) and SDLbased business models are identified when an industrial firm proceeds in servitization. As the result of the study, an updated version of the business model canvas is provided based on service-dominant logic. The service business model canvas ensures a stronger customer focus and includes aspects salient for services, such as interaction between companies, service co-production, and customer experience. It can be used for the analysis and development of a current service business model of a company or for designing a new business model. It facilitates customer-focused new service design and service development. It aids in the identification of development needs, and facilitates the creation of a common view of the business model. Therefore, the service business model canvas can be regarded as a boundary object, which facilitates the creation of a common understanding of the business model between several actors involved. The study contributes to the business model and service business development disciplines by providing a managerial tool for practitioners in service development. It also provides research insight into how servitization challenges companies’ business models.

Keywords: Boundary object, business model canvas, managerial tool, service-dominant logic.

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Authors: Yilun Shang

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We study a long-range percolation model in the hierarchical lattice ΩN of order N where probability of connection between two nodes separated by distance k is of the form min{αβ−k, 1}, α ≥ 0 and β > 0. The parameter α is the percolation parameter, while β describes the long-range nature of the model. The ΩN is an example of so called ultrametric space, which has remarkable qualitative difference between Euclidean-type lattices. In this paper, we characterize the sizes of large clusters for this model along the line of some prior work. The proof involves a stationary embedding of ΩN into Z. The phase diagram of this long-range percolation is well understood.

Keywords: percolation, component, hierarchical lattice, phase transition.

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Authors: D. Henninger, A. Zopey, T. Ihde, C. Mehring

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The dynamic performance of a 4-way solenoid operated hydraulic spool valve has been analyzed by means of a one-dimensional modeling approach capturing flow, magnetic and fluid forces, valve inertia forces, fluid compressibility, and damping. Increased model accuracy was achieved by analyzing the detailed three-dimensional electromagnetic behavior of the solenoids and flow behavior through the spool valve body for a set of relevant operating conditions, thereby allowing the accurate mapping of flow and magnetic forces on the moving valve body, in lieu of representing the respective forces by lower-order models or by means of simplistic textbook correlations. The resulting high-fidelity one-dimensional model provided the basis for specific and timely design modification eliminating experimentally observed valve oscillations.

Keywords: Dynamic performance model, high-fidelity model, 1D-3D decoupled analysis, solenoid-operated hydraulic servo valve, CFD and electromagnetic FEA.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Shigeru Nakayama, Ichiro Iimura, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

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This paper presents a nonparametric identification of continuous-time nonlinear systems by using a Gaussian process (GP) model. The GP prior model is trained by artificial bee colony algorithm. The nonlinear function of the objective system is estimated as the predictive mean function of the GP, and the confidence measure of the estimated nonlinear function is given by the predictive covariance of the GP. The proposed identification method is applied to modeling of a simplified electric power system. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, Gaussian process model, identification, nonlinear system, electric power system.

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Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

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Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time.

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Authors: Richard W. Longman

Abstract:

Iterative learning control aims to achieve zero tracking error of a specific command. This is accomplished by iteratively adjusting the command given to a feedback control system, based on the tracking error observed in the previous iteration. One would like the iterations to converge to zero tracking error in spite of any error present in the model used to design the learning law. First, this need for stability robustness is discussed, and then the need for robustness of the property that the transients are well behaved. Methods of producing the needed robustness to parameter variations and to singular perturbations are presented. Then a method involving reverse time runs is given that lets the world behavior produce the ILC gains in such a way as to eliminate the need for a mathematical model. Since the real world is producing the gains, there is no issue of model error. Provided the world behaves linearly, the approach gives an ILC law with both stability robustness and good transient robustness, without the need to generate a model.

Keywords: Iterative learning control, stability robustness, monotonic convergence.

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Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani

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Different numerical methods are employed and developed for simulating interfacial flows. A large range of applications belong to this group, e.g. two-phase flows of air bubbles in water or water drops in air. In such problems surface tension effects often play a dominant role. In this paper, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows, the CSF, CSS, PCIL and SGIP models have been applied to simulate the motion of small air bubbles in water and the results were compared and reviewed. It has been pointed out that by using SGIP or PCIL models, we are able to simulate bubble rise and obtain results in close agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: Volume-of-Fluid, Bubble Rising, SGIP model, CSS model, CSF model, PCIL model, interface, surface tension force.

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Authors: Jun Li, Wenze Wang, Zhanggui Hu, Yongwei Zhu, Dunwen Zuo

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Non-water based fixed abrasive polishing was adopted to manufacture LBO crystal for nano precision surface quality because of its deliquescent. Ethyl alcohol was selected as the non-water based slurry solvent and ethanediamine, lactic acid, hydrogen peroxide was added in the slurry as a chemical additive, respectively. Effect of different additives with non-water based slurry on material removal rate, surface topography, microscopic appearances, and surface roughness were investigated in fixed abrasive polishing of LBO crystal. The results show the best surface quality of LBO crystal with surface roughness Sa 8.2 nm and small damages was obtained by non-water based slurry with lactic acid. Non-water based fixed abrasive polishing can achieve nano precision surface quality of LBO crystal with high material removal.

Keywords: Non-water based slurry, LBO crystal, Fixed abrasive polishing, Surface roughness.

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Authors: D. Sarkar, M. Pal, A. K. Sarkar

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Asphaltic concrete for pavement construction in India are produced by using crushed stone, gravels etc. as aggregate. In north-Eastern region of India, there is a scarcity of stone aggregate. Therefore the road engineers are always in search of an optional material as aggregate which can replace the regularly used material. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the utilization of substandard or marginal aggregates in flexible pavement construction. The investigation was undertaken to evaluate the effects of using lower quality aggregates such as over burnt brick aggregate on the preparation of asphalt concrete for flexible pavements. The scope of this work included a review of available literature and existing data, a laboratory evaluation organized to determine the effects of marginal aggregates and potential techniques to upgrade these substandard materials, and a laboratory evaluation of these upgraded marginal aggregate asphalt mixtures. Over burnt brick aggregates are water susceptible and can leads to moisture damage. Moisture damage is the progressive loss of functionality of the material owing to loss of the adhesion bond between the asphalt binder and the aggregate surface. Hence zycosoil as an anti striping additive were evaluated in this study. This study summarizes the results of the laboratory evaluation carried out to investigate the properties of asphalt concrete prepared with zycosoil modified over burnt brick aggregate. Marshall specimen were prepared with stone aggregate, zycosoil modified stone aggregate, over burnt brick aggregate and zycosoil modified over burnt brick aggregate. Results show that addition of zycosoil with stone aggregate increased stability by 6% and addition of zycosoil with over burnt brick aggregate increased stability by 30%.

Keywords: Asphalt Concrete, Over Burnt Brick Aggregate, Marshall Stability, Zycosoil.

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Authors: N. K. Sharma, J. Nayak, D. K. Sehgal, R. K. Pandey

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Bone material is treated as heterogeneous and hierarchical in nature therefore appropriate size of bone specimen is required to analyze its tensile properties at a particular hierarchical level. Tensile properties of cortical bone are important to investigate the effect of drug treatment, disease and aging as well as for development of computational and analytical models. In the present study tensile properties of buffalo as well as goat femoral and tibiae cortical bone are analyzed using sub-size tensile specimens. Femoral cortical bone was found to be stronger in tension as compared to the tibiae cortical bone and the tensile properties obtained using sub-size specimens show close resemblance with the tensile properties of full-size cortical specimens. A two dimensional finite element (FE) modal was also applied to simulate the tensile behavior of sub-size specimens. Good agreement between experimental and FE model was obtained for sub-size tensile specimens of cortical bone.

Keywords: Cortical bone, sub-size specimen, full size specimen, finite element modeling.

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Authors: Thomas M. Prinz Wilhelm R. Rossak, Kai Gebhardt

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A straightforward and intuitive combination of single simulations into an aggregated master-simulation is not trivial. There are lots of problems, which trigger-specific difficulties during the modeling and execution of such a simulation. In this paper we identify these problems and aim to solve them by mapping the task to the field of multi agent systems. The solution is a new meta-model named AGENTMAP, which is able to mitigate most of the problems and to support intuitive modeling at the same time. This meta-model will be introduced and explained on basis of an example from the e-commerce domain.

Keywords: Multi Agent System, Agent-based Simulation, Distributed Systems, Meta-models.

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, P. Pongsumpun

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Dengue, a disease found in most tropical and subtropical areas of the world. It has become the most common arboviral disease of humans. This disease is caused by any of four serotypes of dengue virus (DEN1-DEN4). In many endemic countries, the average age of getting dengue infection is shifting upwards, dengue in pregnancy and infancy are likely to be encountered more frequently. The dynamics of the disease is studied by a compartmental model involving ordinary differential equations for the pregnant, infant human and the vector populations. The stability of each equilibrium point is given. The epidemic dynamic is discussed. Moreover, the numerical results are shown for difference values of dengue antibody.

Keywords: Dengue antibody, infant, pregnant human, mathematical model.

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Authors: Pei-Ju Chao, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Wei-Luen Huang, Long-Chang Chen, Te-Jen Su, Wen-Ping Chen

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The main goal in this paper is to quantify the quality of different techniques for radiation treatment plans, a back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN) combined with biomedicine theory was used to model thirteen dosimetric parameters and to calculate two dosimetric indices. The correlations between dosimetric indices and quality of life were extracted as the features and used in the ANN model to make decisions in the clinic. The simulation results show that a trained multilayer back-propagation neural network model can help a doctor accept or reject a plan efficiently. In addition, the models are flexible and whenever a new treatment technique enters the market, the feature variables simply need to be imported and the model re-trained for it to be ready for use.

Keywords: neural network, dosimetric index, radiation treatment, tumor

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Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Mohammed Mahmod Shuaib, Ibtesam M. Abu-Sulyman

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The social force model which belongs to the microscopic pedestrian studies has been considered as the supremacy by many researchers and due to the main feature of reproducing the self-organized phenomena resulted from pedestrian dynamic. The Preferred Force which is a measurement of pedestrian-s motivation to adapt his actual velocity to his desired velocity is an essential term on which the model was set up. This Force has gone through stages of development: first of all, Helbing and Molnar (1995) have modeled the original force for the normal situation. Second, Helbing and his co-workers (2000) have incorporated the panic situation into this force by incorporating the panic parameter to account for the panic situations. Third, Lakoba and Kaup (2005) have provided the pedestrians some kind of intelligence by incorporating aspects of the decision-making capability. In this paper, the authors analyze the most important incorporations into the model regarding the preferred force. They make comparisons between the different factors of these incorporations. Furthermore, to enhance the decision-making ability of the pedestrians, they introduce additional features such as the familiarity factor to the preferred force to let it appear more representative of what actually happens in reality.

Keywords: Pedestrian movement, social force model, preferredforce, familiarity.

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Authors: Mohamed S. Sasi, Adel M. Mlitan, Abdulfattah M. Alkherraz

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This research project aims to investigate difference in relative rates concerning phosphoryl transfer relevant to biological catalysis of DNA and RNA in the pH-independent reactions. Activated Models of DNA and RNA for alkyl-aryl phosphate diesters (with 4-nitrophenyl as a good leaving group) have successfully been prepared to gather kinetic parameters. Eyring plots for the pH– independent hydrolysis of 1 and 2 were established at different temperatures in the range 100–160 °C. These measurements have been used to provide a better estimate for the difference in relative rates between the reactivity of DNA and RNA cleavage. Eyring plot gave an extrapolated rate of kH2O = 1 × 10-10 s -1 for 1 (RNA model) and 2 (DNA model) at 25°C. Comparing the reactivity of RNA model and DNA model shows that the difference in relative rates in the pH-independent reactions is surprisingly very similar at 25°. This allows us to obtain chemical insights into how biological catalysts such as enzymes may have evolved to perform their current functions.

Keywords: DNA & RNA Models, Relative Rates, Reactivity.

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Authors: Assem M. F. Sallam, Ah. El-S. Makled

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This paper presents a study on the trajectory of a two stage launch vehicle. The study includes dynamic responses of motion parameters as well as the variation of angles affecting the orientation of the launch vehicle (LV). LV dynamic characteristics including state vector variation with corresponding altitude and velocity for the different LV stages separation, as well as the angle of attack and flight path angles are also discussed. A flight trajectory study for the drop zone of first stage and the jettisoning of fairing are introduced in the mathematical modeling to study their effect. To increase the accuracy of the LV model, atmospheric model is used taking into consideration geographical location and the values of solar flux related to the date and time of launch, accurate atmospheric model leads to enhancement of the calculation of Mach number, which affects the drag force over the LV. The mathematical model is implemented on MATLAB based software (Simulink). The real available experimental data are compared with results obtained from the theoretical computation model. The comparison shows good agreement, which proves the validity of the developed simulation model; the maximum error noticed was generally less than 10%, which is a result that can lead to future works and enhancement to decrease this level of error.

Keywords: Launch vehicle modeling, launch vehicle trajectory, mathematical modeling, MATLAB-Simulink.

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Authors: Heba Z. Fouad, Tarek M. Madkour, Safwan A. Khedr

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This paper investigates multiple factors that impact the formation of geopolymers and their compressive strength to be utilized in construction as an environmentally-friendly material. Bentonite and Kaolinite were thermally calcinated at 750 °C to obtain Metabentonite and Metakaolinite with higher reactivity. Both source materials were activated using a solution of sodium hydroxide (NaOH). Thereafter, samples were cured at different temperatures. The samples were analyzed chemically using a host of spectroscopic techniques. The bulk density and compressive strength of the produced geopolymer pastes were studied. Findings indicate that the ratio of NaOH solution to source material affects the compressive strength, being optimal at 0.54. Moreover, controlled heat curing was proven effective to improve compressive strength. The existence of characteristic Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) peaks at approximately 1020 cm-1 and 460 cm-1 which correspond to the asymmetric stretching vibration of Si-O-T and bending vibration of Si-O-Si, hence, confirming the formation of the target geopolymer.

Keywords: alcination of metakaolinite, compressive strength, FTIR analysis, geopolymer, green cement

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Authors: Fulya Aydın, Ayşe Kuleyin

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the capacity of natural Turkish zeolite for NH4-N removal from landfill leachate. The effects of modification and initial concentration on the removal of NH4-N from leachate were also investigated. The kinetics of adsorption of NH4-N has been discussed using three kinetic models, i.e., the pseudo-second order model, the Elovich equation, the intraparticle diffuion model. Kinetic parameters and correlation coefficients were determined. Equilibrium isotherms for the adsorption of NH4-N were analyzed by Langmuir, Freundlich and Tempkin isotherm models. Langmuir isotherm model was found to best represent the data for NH4-N.

Keywords: Leachate, Ammonium, zeolite

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Authors: Rajamani Doraiswami, Lahouari Cheded

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Fault diagnosis of Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) system using an adaptive Kalman filter is proposed. The LPV model is comprised of scheduling parameters, and the emulator parameters. The scheduling parameters are chosen such that they are capable of tracking variations in the system model as a result of changes in the operating regimes. The emulator parameters, on the other hand, simulate variations in the subsystems during the identification phase and have negligible effect during the operational phase. The nominal model and the influence vectors, which are the gradient of the feature vector respect to the emulator parameters, are identified off-line from a number of emulator parameter perturbed experiments. A Kalman filter is designed using the identified nominal model. As the system varies, the Kalman filter model is adapted using the scheduling variables. The residual is employed for fault diagnosis. The proposed scheme is successfully evaluated on simulated system as well as on a physical process control system.

Keywords: Keywords—Identification, linear parameter-varying systems, least-squares estimation, fault diagnosis, Kalman filter, emulators

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Authors: Antonio Carlos Marques Alvim, Fernando Carvalho da Silva, Aquilino Senra Martinez

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For a quick and accurate calculation of spatial neutron distribution in nuclear power reactors 3D nodal codes are usually used aiming at solving the neutron diffusion equation for a given reactor core geometry and material composition. These codes use a second order polynomial to represent the transverse leakage term. In this work, a nodal method based on the well known nodal expansion method (NEM), developed at COPPE, making use of this polynomial expansion was modified to treat the transverse leakage term for the external surfaces of peripheral reflector nodes. The proposed method was implemented into a computational system which, besides solving the diffusion equation, also solves the burnup equations governing the gradual changes in material compositions of the core due to fuel depletion. Results confirm the effectiveness of this modified treatment of peripheral nodes for practical purposes in PWR reactors.

Keywords: Transverse leakage, nodal expansion method, power density, PWR reactors

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Authors: Faraj Farhat El Dabee, Rajab Abdullah Hokoma

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Supply Chain Management (SCM) is the integration between manufacturer, transporter and customer in order to form one seamless chain that allows smooth flow of raw materials, information and products throughout the entire network that help in minimizing all related efforts and costs. The main objective of this paper is to develop a model that can accept a specified number of spare-parts within the supply chain, simulating its inventory operations throughout all stages in order to minimize the inventory holding costs, base-stock, safety-stock, and to find the optimum quantity of inventory levels, thereby suggesting a way forward to adapt some factors of Just-In-Time to minimizing the inventory costs throughout the entire supply chain. The model has been developed using Micro- Soft Excel & Visual Basic in order to study inventory allocations in any network of the supply chain. The application and reproducibility of this model were tested by comparing the actual system that was implemented in the case study with the results of the developed model. The findings showed that the total inventory costs of the developed model are about 50% less than the actual costs of the inventory items within the case study.

Keywords: Holding Costs, Inventory, JIT, Modeling, SCM

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Authors: Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

In this paper, a food chain model with Holling type II functional response on time scales is investigated. By using the Mawhin-s continuation theorem in coincidence degree theory, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions are obtained.

Keywords: Periodic solutions, food chain model, coincidence degree, time scales.

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Authors: Thanh-Duoc Phan, Saden H. Zahiri, S. H. Masood, Mahnaz Jahedi

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In this article, using finite element analysis (FEA) and an X-ray diffractometer (XRD), cold-sprayed titanium particles on a steel substrate is investigated in term of cooling time and the development of residual strains. Three cooling-down models of sprayed particles after deposition stage are simulated and discussed: the first model (m1) considers conduction effect to the substrate only, the second model (m2) considers both conduction as well as convection effect to the environment, and the third model (m3) which is the same as the second model but with the substrate heated to a near particle temperature before spraying. Thereafter, residual strains developed in the third model is compared with the experimental measurement of residual strains, which involved a Bruker D8 Advance Diffractometer using CuKa radiation (40kV, 40mA) monochromatised with a graphite sample monochromator. For deposition conditions of this study, a good correlation was found to exist between the FEA results and XRD measurements of residual strains.

Keywords: cold gas dynamic spray, X-ray diffraction, explicit finite element analysis, residual strain, titanium, particle impact, deformation behavior.

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Authors: A. Nuchitprasittichai, N. Lerdritsirikoon, T. Khamsing

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Simulation modeling can be used to solve real world problems. It provides an understanding of a complex system. To develop a simplified model of process simulation, a suitable experimental design is required to be able to capture surface characteristics. This paper presents the experimental design and algorithm used to model the process simulation for optimization problem. The CO₂ liquefaction based on external refrigeration with two refrigeration circuits was used as a simulation case study. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was purposed to combine with existing Central Composite Design (CCD) samples to improve the performance of CCD in generating the second order model of the system. The second order model was then used as the objective function of the optimization problem. The results showed that adding LHS samples to CCD samples can help capture surface curvature characteristics. Suitable number of LHS sample points should be considered in order to get an accurate nonlinear model with minimum number of simulation experiments.

Keywords: Central composite design, CO2 liquefaction, Latin Hypercube Sampling, simulation – based optimization.

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Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

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Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

Abstract:

The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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