Search results for: Time varying regression

Authors: Liping Zhang, Kelin Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a class of impulsive BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks with time delays in the leakage terms is formulated and investigated. By establishing a delay differential inequality and M-matrix theory, some sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks with time delays in the leakage terms are obtained. In particular, a precise estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters and impulsive perturbation intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the results obtained here.

Keywords: Global exponential stability, bidirectional associative memory, fuzzy cellular neural networks, leakage delays, impulses.

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Authors: MohammadReza EffatParvar, Akbar Bemana, Mehdi EffatParvar

Abstract:

Scheduling algorithms are used in operating systems to optimize the usage of processors. One of the most efficient algorithms for scheduling is Multi-Layer Feedback Queue (MLFQ) algorithm which uses several queues with different quanta. The most important weakness of this method is the inability to define the optimized the number of the queues and quantum of each queue. This weakness has been improved in IMLFQ scheduling algorithm. Number of the queues and quantum of each queue affect the response time directly. In this paper, we review the IMLFQ algorithm for solving these problems and minimizing the response time. In this algorithm Recurrent Neural Network has been utilized to find both the number of queues and the optimized quantum of each queue. Also in order to prevent any probable faults in processes' response time computation, a new fault tolerant approach has been presented. In this approach we use combinational software redundancy to prevent the any probable faults. The experimental results show that using the IMLFQ algorithm results in better response time in comparison with other scheduling algorithms also by using fault tolerant mechanism we improve IMLFQ performance.

Keywords: IMLFQ, Fault Tolerant, Scheduling, Queue, Recurrent Neural Network.

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Authors: M. S. Kaiser

Abstract:

An attempt has been made to determine the strength and impact properties of Cr-Mo steel weld and base materials by varying the current during manual metal arc welding. Toughness over a temperature range from -32 to 100°C of base, heat affected zone (HAZ) and weld zones at three current settings are made. It is observed that the deterioration in notch toughness at any zone with the temperature decreases. The values of notch toughness for all zones at -32°C are almost same for any current settings. The values of notch toughness at HAZ area are higher than that of weld area due to the coarsening of ferrite grain of HAZ occurs with higher heat input. From microhardness and microstructure result, it can be concluded that large inclusion content in weld deposit is the cause of lower notch toughness value.

Keywords: Chromium-Molybdenum steel, post-weld heat treatment, heat affected zone, microstructure.

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Authors: N. Arslanoglu

Abstract:

This paper deals with the optimum tilt angle for the solar collector in order to collect the maximum solar radiation. The optimum angle for tilted surfaces varying from 0^◦ to 90^◦ in steps of 1^◦ was computed. In present study, a theoretical model is used to predict the global solar radiation on a tilted surface and to obtain the optimum tilt angle for a solar collector in Bursa, Turkey. Global solar energy radiation on the solar collector surface with an optimum tilt angle is calculated for specific periods. It is determined that the optimum slope angle varies between 0^◦ (June) and 59^◦ (December) throughout the year. In winter (December, January, and February) the tilt should be 55^◦, in spring (March, April, and May) 19.6^◦, in summer (June, July, and August) 5.6^◦, and in autumn (September, October, and November) 44.3^◦. The yearly average of this value was obtained to be 31.1^◦ and this would be the optimum fixed slope throughout the year.

Keywords: Optimum tilt angle, global solar radiation, tilted surface.

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Authors: F. O. Aron, T. O. Olwal, A. Kurien, M. O. Odhiambo

Abstract:

A considerable amount of energy is consumed during transmission and reception of messages in a wireless mesh network (WMN). Reducing per-node transmission power would greatly increase the network lifetime via power conservation in addition to increasing the network capacity via better spatial bandwidth reuse. In this work, the problem of topology control in a hybrid WMN of heterogeneous wireless devices with varying maximum transmission ranges is considered. A localized distributed topology control algorithm is presented which calculates the optimal transmission power so that (1) network connectivity is maintained (2) node transmission power is reduced to cover only the nearest neighbours (3) networks lifetime is extended. Simulations and analysis of results are carried out in the NS-2 environment to demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Topology Control, Wireless Mesh Networks, Backbone, Energy Efficiency, Localized Algorithm.

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Authors: Bilal Barakeh

Abstract:

In this paper we discuss the effect of unbounded particle interaction operator on particle growth and we study how this can address the choice of appropriate time steps of the numerical simulation. We provide also rigorous mathematical proofs showing that large particles become dominating with increasing time while small particles contribute negligibly. Second, we discuss the efficiency of the algorithm by performing numerical simulations tests and by comparing the simulated solutions with some known analytic solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

Keywords: Stochastic processes, coagulation of particles, numerical scheme.

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Authors: S. Sarkar, R. Mandal

Abstract:

The three-dimensional incompressible flow past a rectangular open cavity is investigated, where the aspect ratio of the cavity is considered as 4. The principle objective is to use large-eddy simulation to resolve and control the large-scale structures, which are largely responsible for flow oscillations in a cavity. The flow past an open cavity is very common in aerospace applications and can be a cause of acoustic source due to hydrodynamic instability of the shear layer and its interactions with the downstream edge. The unsteady Navier-stokes equations have been solved on a staggered mesh using a symmetry-preserving central difference scheme. Synthetic jet has been used as an active control to suppress the cavity oscillations in wake mode for a Reynolds number of ReD = 3360. The effect of synthetic jet has been studied by varying the jet amplitude and frequency, which is placed at the upstream wall of the cavity. The study indicates that there exits a frequency band, which is larger than a critical value, is effective in attenuating cavity oscillations when blowing ratio is more than 1.0.

Keywords: Cavity oscillation, Large Eddy Simulation, Synthetic Jet, Flow Control, Turbulence

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Authors: M. H. Hussain, I. Musirin, A. F. Abidin, S. R. A. Rahim

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This paper presents the implementation of Artificial Bees Colony (ABC) algorithm in solving Directional OverCurrent Relays (DOCRs) coordination problem for near-end faults occurring in fixed network topology. The coordination optimization of DOCRs is formulated as linear programming (LP) problem. The objective function is introduced to minimize the operating time of the associated relay which depends on the time multiplier setting. The proposed technique is to taken as a technique for comparison purpose in order to highlight its superiority. The proposed algorithms have been tested successfully on 8 bus test system. The simulation results demonstrated that the ABC algorithm which has been proved to have good search ability is capable in dealing with constraint optimization problems.

Keywords: Artificial bees colony, directional overcurrent relay coordination problem, relay settings, time multiplier setting.

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Authors: Mark Rousell, Di Catherwood, Graham Edgar

Abstract:

The main issue of interest here is whether individuals who differ in arithmetical reasoning ability and levels of imagery ability display different brain activity during the conduct of mental arithmetical reasoning tasks. This was a case study of four participants who represented four extreme combinations of Maths –Imagery abilities: ie., low-low, high-high, high-low, low-high respectively. As the Ps performed a series of 60 arithmetical reasoning tasks, 128-channel EEG recordings were taken and the pre-response interval subsequently analysed using EGI GeosourceTM software. The P who was high in both imagery and maths ability showed peak activity prior to response in BA7 (superior parietal cortex) but other Ps did not show peak activity in this region. The results are considered in terms of the diverse routes that may be employed by individuals during the conduct of arithmetical reasoning tasks and the possible implications of this for mathematics education.

Keywords: Arithmetic, imagery, EEG, education.

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Authors: Haragobinda Srichandan, Chandra Sekhar Gahan, Dong-Jin Kim, Seoung-Won Lee

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Bioleaching of spent catalyst using moderate thermophilic chemolithotrophic acidophiles in growth medium without Fe source was investigated with two different pulp densities and three different size fractions. All the experiments were conducted on shake flasks at a temperature of 65 °C. The leaching yield of Ni and Al was found to be promising with very high leaching yield of 92-96% followed by Al as 41-76%, which means both Ni and Al leaching were favored by the moderate thermophilic bioleaching compared to the mesophilic bioleaching. The acid consumption was comparatively higher for the 10% pulp density experiments. Comparatively minimal difference in the leaching yield with different size fractions and different pulp densities show no requirement of grinding and using low pulp density less than 10%. This process would rather be economical as well as eco-friendly process for future optimization of the recovery of metal values from spent catalyst.

Keywords: Bioleaching, spent catalyst, leaching yield, thermophile.

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Authors: R. Hashim, A. J. Bock, S. Cooper

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Absorptive capacity generally facilitates the adoption of innovation. How does this relationship change when economic return is not the sole driver of innovation uptake? We investigate whether absorptive capacity facilitates the adoption of green innovation based on a survey of 79 construction companies in Scotland. Based on the results of multiple regression analyses, we confirm that existing knowledge utilisation (EKU), knowledge building (KB) and external knowledge acquisition (EKA) are significant predictors of green process GP), green administrative (GA) and green technical innovation (GT), respectively. We discuss the implications for theories of innovation adoption and knowledge enhancement associated with environmentally-friendly practices.

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, construction industry, environmental, green innovation.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: Matura Unhasirikul, Nuanphan Naranong, Woatthichai Narkrugsa

Abstract:

Agricultural waste is mainly composed of cellulose and hemicelluloses which can be converted to sugars. The inexpensive reducing sugar from durian peel was obtained by hydrolysis with HCl concentration at 0.5-2.0% (v/v). The hydrolysis range of time was for 15-60 min when the mixture was autoclaved at 121 °C. The result showed that acid hydrolysis efficiency (AHE) highest to 80.99% at condition is 2.0%concentration for 15 min. Reducing sugar highest to 56.07 g/litre at condition is 2.0% concentration for 45min. Total sugar highest to 59.83 g/litre at condition is 2.0%concentration for 45min, which was not significant (p < 0.05) with condition 2.0% concentration for 30 min and 1.5 % concentration for 45 and 60 min. The increase in concentration increased AHE, reducing sugar and total sugar. The hydrolysis time had no effect on AHE, reducing sugar and total sugar. The maximum reducing sugars of each concentration were at hydrolysis time 45 min .The hydrolysated were analysis by HPLC, the results revealed that the principle of sugar were glucose, fructose and xylose.

Keywords: acid hydrolysis efficiency (AHE), reducing sugar, total sugar

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Authors: Khalid M. Aamir, Mohammad A. Maud

Abstract:

Power Spectral Density (PSD) of quasi-stationary processes can be efficiently estimated using the short time Fourier series (STFT). In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed that computes the PSD of quasi-stationary process efficiently using offline autoregressive model order estimation algorithm, recursive parameter estimation technique and modified sliding window discrete Fourier Transform algorithm. The main difference in this algorithm and STFT is that the sliding window (SW) and window for spectral estimation (WSA) are separately defined. WSA is updated and its PSD is computed only when change in statistics is detected in the SW. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is found to be lesser than that for standard STFT technique.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density (PSD), quasi-stationarytime series, short time Fourier Transform, Sliding window DFT.

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Authors: Jun Wang, Tingcun Wei

Abstract:

The digital pulse width modulator (DPWM) is the crucial building block for digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, which converts the digital duty ratio signal into its analog counterpart to control the power MOSFET transistors on or off. With the increase of switching frequency of digitally-controlled DC-DC converter, the DPWM with higher time resolution is required. In this paper, a 15-bits DPWM with three-level hybrid structure is presented; the first level is composed of a7-bits counter and a comparator, the second one is a 5-bits delay line, and the third one is a 3-bits digital dither. The presented DPWM is designed and implemented using the PLL megafunction of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays), and the required frequency of clock signal is 128 times of switching frequency. The simulation results show that, for the switching frequency of 2 MHz, a DPWM which has the time resolution of 15 ps is achieved using a maximum clock frequency of 256MHz. The designed DPWM in this paper is especially useful for high-frequency digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converters.

Keywords: DPWM, PLL megafunction, FPGA, time resolution, digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter.

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Authors: Cheng Zhang, James Marco, Walid Allafi, Truong Q. Dinh, W. D. Widanage

Abstract:

Equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are widely used in battery management systems in electric vehicles and other battery energy storage systems. The battery dynamics and the model parameters vary under different working conditions, such as different temperature and state of charge (SOC) levels, and therefore online parameter identification can improve the modelling accuracy. This paper presents a way of online ECM parameter identification using a continuous time (CT) estimation method. The CT estimation method has several advantages over discrete time (DT) estimation methods for ECM parameter identification due to the widely separated battery dynamic modes and fast sampling. The presented method can be used for online SOC estimation. Test data are collected using a lithium ion cell, and the experimental results show that the presented CT method achieves better modelling accuracy compared with the conventional DT recursive least square method. The effectiveness of the presented method for online SOC estimation is also verified on test data.

Keywords: Equivalent circuit model, continuous time domain estimation, linear integral filter method, parameter and SOC estimation, recursive least square.

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Authors: Vishnu Kant Soni, Raksha Sharma, Manoj Kumar Mishra

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Grid computing is a high performance computing environment to solve larger scale computational applications. Grid computing contains resource management, job scheduling, security problems, information management and so on. Job scheduling is a fundamental and important issue in achieving high performance in grid computing systems. However, it is a big challenge to design an efficient scheduler and its implementation. In Grid Computing, there is a need of further improvement in Job Scheduling algorithm to schedule the light-weight or small jobs into a coarse-grained or group of jobs, which will reduce the communication time, processing time and enhance resource utilization. This Grouping strategy considers the processing power, memory-size and bandwidth requirements of each job to realize the real grid system. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheduling algorithm efficiently reduces the processing time of jobs in comparison to others.

Keywords: Grid computing, Job grouping and Jobscheduling.

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Authors: Lina Galinskaitė, Gytautas Ignatavičius

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Animal vehicle collisions (AVCs) affect human safety, cause property damage and wildlife welfare. The number of AVCs are increasing and creating serious implications for the animal conservation and management. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and other large ungulates (moose, wild boar, red deer) are the most frequently collided ungulate with vehicles in Europe. Therefore, we analyzed temporal patterns of roe deer vehicle collisions (RDVC) occurring in Lithuania. Using a comprehensive dataset, consisting of 15,891 data points, we examined the influence of different time units (i.e. time of the day, day of week, month, and season) on RDVC. We identified accident periods within the analyzed time units. Highest frequencies of RDVC occurred on Fridays. Highest frequencies of roe deer-vehicle accidents occurred in May, November and December. Regarding diurnal patterns, most of RDVC occur after sunset and before sunset (during dark hours). Since vehicle collisions with animals showed temporal variation, these should be taken into consideration in developing statistical models of spatial AVC patterns, and also in planning strategies to reduce accident risk.

Keywords: Animal vehicle collision, diurnal patterns, road safety, roe deer, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Md Abdullah Al Faruque

Abstract:

A very large percentage of bridge failures are attributed to scouring around bridge piers and this directly influences public safety. Experiments are carried out in a 12-m long rectangular open channel flume made of transparent tempered glass. A 300 mm thick bed made up of sand particles is leveled horizontally to create the test bed and a 50 mm hollow plastic cylinder is used as a model bridge pier. Tests are carried out with varying flow depths and velocities. Data points of various scour parameters such as scour depth, width, and length are collected based on different flow conditions and visual observations of changes in the stream bed downstream the bridge pier are also made as the scour progresses. Result shows that all three major flow characteristics (flow depth, Froude number and densimetric Froude number) have one way or other affect the scour profile.

Keywords: Bridge pier scour, densimetric Froude number, flow depth, Froude Number, sand.

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Authors: Elham Jelodari Mamaghani, Christian Prins, Haoxun Chen

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In this paper, there is concentration on collaborative transportation planning (CTP) among multiple carriers with pickup and delivery requests and time windows. This problem is a vehicle routing problem with constraints from standard vehicle routing problems and new constraints from a real-world application. In the problem, each carrier has a finite number of vehicles, and each request is a pickup and delivery request with time window. Moreover, each carrier has reserved requests, which must be served by itself, whereas its exchangeable requests can be outsourced to and served by other carriers. This collaboration among carriers can help them to reduce total transportation costs. A mixed integer programming model is proposed to the problem. To solve the model, a hybrid algorithm that combines Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing (GASA) is proposed. This algorithm takes advantages of GASA at the same time. After tuning the parameters of the algorithm with the Taguchi method, the experiments are conducted and experimental results are provided for the hybrid algorithm. The results are compared with those obtained by a commercial solver. The comparison indicates that the GASA significantly outperforms the commercial solver.

Keywords: Centralized collaborative transportation, collaborative transportation with pickup and delivery, collaborative transportation with time windows, hybrid algorithm of GA and SA.

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Authors: Affordability, Expenditure Patterns towards Sustainable Consumption in Malaysia

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Safe drinking water is needed for survival. Households have to pay the water bill monthly. However, lower income households are sometimes unable to afford the cost. This study examines water access and affordability among households in Malaysia and the determinants of water affordability using cross-sectional data and multiple regression. The paper expects that the bill for basic water consumption is inversely related to average income. This means that policy makers need to redesign the water tariff to improve the quality of life of lower income households.

Keywords: Affordability, households, income, water tariff.

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Authors: Giovanni Incerti

Abstract:

The motion planning technique described in this paper has been developed to eliminate or reduce the residual vibrations of belt-driven rotary platforms, while maintaining unchanged the motion time and the total angular displacement of the platform. The proposed approach is based on a suitable choice of the motion command given to the servomotor that drives the mechanical device; this command is defined by some numerical coefficients which determine the shape of the displacement, velocity and acceleration profiles. Using a numerical optimization technique, these coefficients can be changed without altering the continuity conditions imposed on the displacement and its time derivatives at the initial and final time instants. The proposed technique can be easily and quickly implemented on an actual device, since it requires only a simple modification of the motion command profile mapped in the memory of the electronic motion controller.

Keywords: Command shaping, residual vibrations, belt transmission, servomechanism.

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Authors: Chih-Feng Chuang, Shih-Ching Shiu, Chao-Jen Cheng

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among students- process of study, creative self-efficacy and creativity while attending college. A total of 60 students enrolled in Hsiuping Institute of Technology in central Taiwan were selected as samples for the study. The instruments for this study included three questionnaires to explore the aforesaid aspects. This researchers tested creative self-efficacy and process of study, and creativity with Pearson correlation and hierarchical regression analyses. The major findings of this research are (1) the process of study had direct positive predictability on creativity, and (2) the relationship between process of study and creativity is partially mediated by creative self-efficacy.

Keywords: Process of study, Creative self-efficacy, Creativity

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Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.

Keywords: Decision-making, idea and belief, satisficing, uncertainty.

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Authors: Nan-Chyuan Tsai, Din-Chang Chen, Rong-Mao Lee, Bai-Lu Wang

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This paper presents how the real-time chatter prevention can be realized by feedback of acoustic cutting signal, and the efficacy of the proposed adaptive spindle speed tuning algorithm is verified by intensive experimental simulations. A pair of microphones, perpendicular to each other, is used to acquire the acoustic cutting signal resulting from milling chatter. A real-time feedback control loop is constructed for spindle speed compensation so that the milling process can be ensured to be within the stability zone of stability lobe diagram. Acoustic Chatter Signal Index (ACSI) and Spindle Speed Compensation Strategy (SSCS) are proposed to quantify the acoustic signal and actively tune the spindle speed respectively. By converting the acoustic feedback signal into ACSI, an appropriate Spindle Speed Compensation Rate (SSCR) can be determined by SSCS based on real-time chatter level or ACSI. Accordingly, the compensation command, referred to as Added-On Voltage (AOV), is applied to increase/decrease the spindle motor speed. By inspection on the precision and quality of the workpiece surface after milling, the efficacy of the real-time chatter prevention strategy via acoustic signal feedback is further assured.

Keywords: Chatter compensation, Stability lobes, Non-invasivemeasurement.

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Authors: Rachel C. F. Sun

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This study examined the predictive effects of moral competence, prosocial norms and positive behavior recognition on school misbehavior among Chinese junior secondary school students. Results of multiple regression analysis showed that students were more likely to misbehave in school when they had lower levels of moral competence and prosocial norms, and when they perceived their positive behavior being less likely recognized. Practical implications were discussed on how to guide students to make the right choices to behave appropriately in school. Implications for future research were also discussed.

Keywords: Moral competence, positive behavior recognition, prosocial norms, school misbehavior.

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Authors: Abdurrahman Arslanyilmaz, Salman Al Matouq, Durmus V. Doner

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Level 3 autonomous vehicles are able to take full responsibility over the control of the vehicle unless a system boundary is reached or a system failure occurs, in which case, the driver is expected to take-over the control of the vehicle. While this happens, the driver is often not aware of the traffic situation or is engaged in a secondary task. Factors affecting the duration and quality of take-overs in these situations have included secondary task type and nature, traffic density, take-over request (TOR) time, and TOR warning type and modality. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no prior study examined time buffer for TORs when a system failure occurs immediately before intersections. The first objective of this study is to investigate the effect of time buffer (3 and 7 seconds) on the duration and quality of take-overs when a system failure occurs just prior to intersections. In addition, eye-tracking has become one of the most popular methods to report what individuals view, in what order, for how long, and how often, and it has been utilized in driving simulations with various objectives. However, to the extent of authors’ knowledge, none has compared drivers’ eye gaze behavior in the two different time buffers in order to examine drivers’ attention and comprehension of salient information. The second objective is to understand the driver’s attentional focus on comprehension of salient traffic-related information presented on different parts of the dashboard and on the roads.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, driving simulation, eye gaze, attention, comprehension, take-over duration, take-over quality, time buffer.

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Authors: Tahir Majeed, Michael Handschuh, René Meier

Abstract:

Rheumatoid Arthritis patients have swelling and pain in joints of the hand. The regions where the patient feels pain also show increased body temperature. Thermal cameras can be used to detect the rise in temperature of the affected regions. To monitor the progression of Rheumatoid Arthritis, patients must visit the clinic regularly for scanning and examination. After scanning and evaluation, the dosage of the medicine is regulated accordingly. To monitor the disease progression over time, the correlation of the images between different visits must be established. It has been observed that the thermal measurements do not remain the same over time, even within a single scanning, when low-cost thermal cameras are used. In some situations, temperatures can vary as much as 2◦C within the same scanning sequence. In this paper, it has been shown that although the absolute temperature varies over time, the relative difference between different regions remains similar. Results have been computed over four scanning sequences and are presented.

Keywords: Relative thermal difference, rheumatoid arthritis, thermal imaging, thermal sensors.

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Authors: Ömer Aktaş, Olga A. Suvorova, Oleg Tretyakov

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The boundary value problem on non-canonical and arbitrary shaped contour is solved with a numerically effective method called Analytical Regularization Method (ARM) to calculate propagation parameters. As a result of regularization, the equation of first kind is reduced to the infinite system of the linear algebraic equations of the second kind in the space of L₂. This equation can be solved numerically for desired accuracy by using truncation method. The parameters as cut-off wavenumber and cut-off frequency are used in waveguide evolutionary equations of electromagnetic theory in time-domain to illustrate the real-valued TM fields with lossy and lossless media.

Keywords: Arbitrary cross section waveguide, analytical regularization method, evolutionary equations of electromagnetic theory of time-domain, TM field.

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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