Search results for: group decision

Authors: Anis Fatmi, Amur Al Yahmadi, Lazhar Khriji, Nouri Masmoudi

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One of the long standing challenging aspect in mobile robotics is the ability to navigate autonomously, avoiding modeled and unmodeled obstacles especially in crowded and unpredictably changing environment. A successful way of structuring the navigation task in order to deal with the problem is within behavior based navigation approaches. In this study, Issues of individual behavior design and action coordination of the behaviors will be addressed using fuzzy logic. A layered approach is employed in this work in which a supervision layer based on the context makes a decision as to which behavior(s) to process (activate) rather than processing all behavior(s) and then blending the appropriate ones, as a result time and computational resources are saved.

Keywords: Behavior based navigation, context based coordination, fuzzy logic, mobile robots.

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Authors: Valeria M. Pequeno, Joao Carlos G. M. Pires

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Data Warehouses (DWs) are repositories which contain the unified history of an enterprise for decision support. The data must be Extracted from information sources, Transformed and integrated to be Loaded (ETL) into the DW, using ETL tools. These tools focus on data movement, where the models are only used as a means to this aim. Under a conceptual viewpoint, the authors want to innovate the ETL process in two ways: 1) to make clear compatibility between models in a declarative fashion, using correspondence assertions and 2) to identify the instances of different sources that represent the same entity in the real-world. This paper presents the overview of the proposed framework to model the ETL process, which is based on the use of a reference model and perspective schemata. This approach provides the designer with a better understanding of the semantic associated with the ETL process.

Keywords: conceptual data model, correspondence assertions, data warehouse, data integration, ETL process, object relational database.

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Authors: N. Perko, N. Kavran, M. Bukljaš, I. Berbić

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This paper is a result of implemented research on proposed introduced methodology for nautical ports capacity planning by introducing a multi-criteria approach of defined criteria in the Adriatic Sea region. The purpose was analyzing the determinants - characteristics of infrastructure and services of nautical ports capacity allocated, especially nowadays due to COVID-19 pandemic, as crucial for successful operation of nautical ports. Giving the importance of the defined priorities for short-term and long-term planning is essential not only in terms of the development of nautical tourism, but also in terms of developing the maritime system, but unfortunately this is not always carried out. Evaluation of the use of resources should follow from a detailed analysis of all aspects of resources bearing in mind that nautical tourism used resources in a sustainable manner and generates effects in the tourism and maritime sectors. Consequently, identified multiplier effect of nautical tourism, which should be defined and quantified in detail, should be one of the major competitive products on the Croatian Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Research of nautical tourism is necessary to quantify the effects and required planning system development. In the future, the greatest threat to long-term sustainable development of nautical tourism can be its further uncontrolled or unlimited and undirected development, especially under pressure markedly higher demand than supply for new moorings in the Mediterranean. Results of this implemented research are applicable to nautical ports management and decision makers of maritime transport system development. This paper will present implemented research and obtained result - developed methodology for nautical port capacity planning - Port Capacity Planning Multi-criteria decision-making. A proposed methodological approach of multi-criteria capacity planning includes four criteria (spatial - transport, cost - infrastructure, ecological and organizational criteria, and additional services). The importance of the criteria and sub-criteria is evaluated and carried out the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the importance of the criteria and sub-criteria. Based on the analysis of the identified and quantified importance of certain criteria and sub-criteria as well as sensitivity analysis and analysis of changes of the quantified importance scientific and applicable results will be presented. These obtained results have practical applicability by management of nautical ports in the planning of increasing capacity and further development and for the adaptation of existing nautical ports. The obtained research is applicable and replicable in other seas and results are especially important and useful in this COVID-19 pandemic challenging maritime development framework.

Keywords: Adriatic Sea, capacity, infrastructures, maritime system, methodology, nautical ports, nautical tourism, service.

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Authors: Witthaya Mekhum

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The OTOP Entrepreneurship that used to create substantial source of income for local Thai communities are now in a stage of exigent matters that required assistances from public sectors due to over Entrepreneurship of duplicative ideas, unable to adjust costs and prices, lack of innovation, and inadequate of quality control. Moreover, there is a repetitive problem of middlemen who constantly corner the OTOP market. Local OTOP producers become easy preys since they do not know how to add more values, how to create and maintain their own brand name, and how to create proper packaging and labeling. The suggested solutions to local OTOP producers are to adopt modern management techniques, to find knowhow to add more values to products and to unravel other marketing problems. The objectives of this research are to study the prevalent OTOP products management and to discover direction to manage OTOP products to enhance the effectiveness of OTOP Entrepreneurship in Nonthaburi Province, Thailand. There were 113 participants in this study. The research tools can be divided into two parts: First part is done by questionnaire to find responses of the prevalent OTOP Entrepreneurship management. Second part is the use of focus group which is conducted to encapsulate ideas and local wisdom. Data analysis is performed by using frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation as well as the synthesis of several small group discussions. The findings reveal that 1) Business Resources: the quality of product is most important and the marketing of product is least important. 2) Business Management: Leadership is most important and raw material planning is least important. 3) Business Readiness: Communication is most important and packaging is least important. 4) Support from public sector: Certified from the government is most important and source of raw material is the least important.

Keywords: Management, OTOP Entrepreneurship, Local Wisdom

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag.

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Authors: Soottipoom Yaowiwat, Manoj Lohatepanont, Proadpran Punyabukkana

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Several approaches such as linear programming, network modeling, greedy heuristic and decision support system are well-known approaches in solving irregular airline operation problem. This paper presents an alternative approach based on Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm. The aim of this research is to introduce the concept of Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm as a tool to solve irregular airline operation, combine and reroute problem. The experiment result indicated that the model could obtain optimal solutions within a few second.

Keywords: Irregular Airline Operation, Combine and RerouteRoutine, Genetic Algorithm, Micro Genetic Algorithm, Multi ObjectiveOptimization, Evolutionary Algorithm.

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Authors: Amalia Suzianti

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This research elaborates decision models for product innovation in the early phases, focusing on one of the most widely implemented method in marketing research: conjoint analysis and the related conjoint-based models with special focus on heuristics programming techniques for the development of optimal product innovation. The concept, potential, requirements and limitations of conjoint analysis and its conjoint-based heuristics successors are analysed and the development of conceptual framework of Genetic Algorithm (GA) as one of the most widely implemented heuristic methods for developing product innovations are discussed.

Keywords: Product Innovation, Conjoint Analysis, Heuristic Model, Genetic Algorithm

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Authors: An-Shik Yang, Chiang-Ho Cheng, Jen-Hao Wu, Yu-Hsuan Juan

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Natural ventilation has played an important role for many low energy-building designs. It has been also noticed as a essential subject to persistently bring the fresh cool air from the outside into a building. This study carried out the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based simulations to examine the natural ventilation development of a work area in a public building. The simulated results can be useful to better understand the indoor microclimate and the interaction of wind with buildings. Besides, this CFD simulation procedure can serve as an effective analysis tool to characterize the airing performance, and thereby optimize the building ventilation for strengthening the architects, planners and other decision makers on improving the natural ventilation design of public buildings.

Keywords: CFD simulations, Natural ventilation, Microclimate, Wind environment.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity is a clinical state associated with low-grade inflammation. It is also a major risk factor for insulin resistance (IR). In its advanced stages, metabolic syndrome (MetS), a much more complicated disease which may lead to life-threatening problems, may develop. Obesity-mediated IR seems to correlate with the inflammation. Human studies performed particularly on pediatric population are scarce. The aim of this study is to detect possible associations between inflammation and IR in terms of some related ratios. 549 children were grouped according to their age- and sex-based body mass index (BMI) percentile tables of WHO. MetS components were determined. Informed consent and approval from the Ethics Committee for Clinical Investigations were obtained. The principles of the Declaration of Helsinki were followed. The exclusion criteria were infection, inflammation, chronic diseases and those under drug treatment. Anthropometric measurements were obtained. Complete blood cell, fasting blood glucose, insulin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) analyses were performed. Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), systemic immune inflammation (SII) index, tense index, alanine aminotransferase to aspartate aminotransferase ratio (ALT/AST), neutrophils to lymphocyte (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte, and lymphocyte to monocyte ratios were calculated. Data were evaluated by statistical analyses. The degree for statistical significance was 0.05. Statistically significant differences were found among the BMI values of the groups (p < 0.001). Strong correlations were detected between the BMI and waist circumference (WC) values in all groups. Tense index values were also correlated with both BMI and WC values in all groups except overweight (OW) children. SII index values of children with normal BMI were significantly different from the values obtained in OW, obese, morbid obese and MetS groups. Among all the other lymphocyte ratios, NLR exhibited a similar profile. Both HOMA-IR and ALT/AST values displayed an increasing profile from N towards MetS3 group. BMI and WC values were correlated with HOMA-IR and ALT/AST. Both in morbid obese and MetS groups, significant correlations between CRP versus SII index as well as HOMA-IR versus ALT/AST were found. ALT/AST and HOMA-IR values were correlated with NLR in morbid obese group and with SII index in MetS group, (p < 0.05), respectively. In conclusion, these findings showed that some parameters may exhibit informative differences between the early and late stages of obesity. Important associations among HOMA-IR, ALT/AST, NLR and SII index have come to light in the morbid obese and MetS groups. This study introduced the SII index and NLR as important inflammatory markers for the discrimination of normal and obese children. Interesting links were observed between inflammation and IR in morbid obese children and those with MetS, both being late stages of obesity.

Keywords: Children, inflammation, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, obesity.

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Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar, P. Amith Kumar

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Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy is a commonly performed diagnostic and therapeutic procedure and has many adverse effects like cardiopulmonary complications, complications related to sedation, infectious complications, bleeding and perforation. So this study was undertaken to evaluate important variables like patient’s age, gender and stage of the procedure in relation to the cardiopulmonary changes during diagnostic upper gastrointestinal endoscopy by monitoring oxygen saturation, blood pressure, heart rate and electrocardiogram. This is a prospective longitudinal hospital based study involving a total of 140 consecutive patients, at Sri. B. M. Patil Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre. Cardiopulmonary changes during upper gastrointestinal endoscopy are more common in the age groups of 51-60 years, with equal frequency in both male and female. Oxygen saturation levels decreased by about 4% in both sexes during introduction of endoscopy. Mild to moderate hypoxia was found in 32% of the study group. Severe hypoxia was found in 5% of the patients, mostly in those patients who are above 50 years of age. Tachycardia was noted in 88% of the study group patients. Blood pressure increased to hypertension levels in 22 patients (15.7%) which returned to normal within few minutes after the procedure. S-T depression was noticed in 4% of patients and T wave inversion in 8% of patients during upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. All these changes disappeared after 10 minutes after the endoscopy. Cardiopulmonary changes are common during upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Maximum changes in oxygen saturation, heart rate and blood pressure occurred immediately after the introduction of endoscope. The cardiopulmonary changes did not manifest into any identifiable clinical symptoms. The rate of recovery was faster in younger age groups and women.

Keywords: Blood Pressure, Cardio-Pulmonary, Heart Rate, Oxygen Saturation, Upper Gastrointestinal Endoscopy.

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Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey

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In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.

Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management

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Authors: S. M. M. Syairah, M. H. Rajikin, A-R. Sharaniza

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Several embryonic cellular mechanism including cell cycle, growth and apoptosis are regulated by phosphatidylinositol-3- kinase (PI3K)/Akt signaling pathway. The goal of present study is to determine the effects of annatto (Bixa orellana)-derived δ-tocotrienol (δ-TCT) on the regulations of PI3K/Akt genes in murine morula. Twenty four 6-8 week old (23-25g) female balb/c mice were randomly divided into four groups (G1-G4; n=6). Those groups were subjected to the following treatments for 7 consecutive days: G1 (control) received tocopherol stripped corn oil, G2 was given 60 mg/kg/day of δ-TCT mixture (contains 90% delta & 10% gamma isomers), G3 was given 60 mg/kg/day of pure δ-TCT (>98% purity) and G4 received 60 mg/kg/day α-TOC. On Day 8, females were superovulated with 5 IU Pregnant Mare’s Serum Gonadotropin (PMSG) for 48 hours followed with 5 IU human Chorionic Gonadotropin (hCG) before mated with males at the ratio of 1:1. Females were sacrificed by cervical dislocation for embryo collection 48 hours post-coitum. About fifty morulas from each group were used in the gene expression analyses using Affymetrix QuantiGene Plex 2.0 Assay. Present data showed a significant increase (p<0.05) in the average number (mean + SEM) of morula produced in G2 (27.32 + 0.23), G3 (25.42 + 0.21) and G4 (27.21 + 0.34) compared to control group (G1 – 14.61 + 0.25). This is parallel with the high expression of PDK1 gene with increase of 2.75-fold (G2), 3.07-fold (G3) and 3.59-fold (G4) compared to G1. From the present data, it can be concluded that supplementation with δ-TCT(s) and α-TOC induced high expression of PDK1 in G2-G4 which enhanced the PI3K/Akt signaling activity, resulting in the increased number of morula.

Keywords: Embryonic development, morula, nicotine, vitamin E.

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.

Keywords: Degradation signal, drill-bit breakage, random forest, multinomial logistic regression.

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Authors: S. Thirumurugan, D. R. Prince Williams

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Software Reliability is one of the key factors in the software development process. Software Reliability is estimated using reliability models based on Non Homogenous Poisson Process. In most of the literature the Software Reliability is predicted only in testing phase. So it leads to wrong decision-making concept. In this paper, two Software Reliability concepts, testing and operational phase are studied in detail. Using S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) and Exponential SRGM, the testing and operational reliability values are obtained. Finally two reliability values are compared and optimal release time is investigated.

Keywords: Error Detection Rate, Estimation of Parameters, Instantaneous Failure Rate, Mean Value Function, Non Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), Software Reliability.

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Authors: Youguo Wang, Lenan Wu

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Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the signal transmission or signal processing through certain nonlinear systems can be improved by adding noise. This paper discusses SR in nonlinear signal detection by a simple test statistic, which can be computed from multiple noisy data in a binary decision problem based on a maximum a posteriori probability criterion. The performance of detection is assessed by the probability of detection error Per . When the input signal is subthreshold signal, we establish that benefit from noise can be gained for different noises and confirm further that the subthreshold SR exists in nonlinear signal detection. The efficacy of SR is significantly improved and the minimum of Per can dramatically approach to zero as the sample number increases. These results show the robustness of SR in signal detection and extend the applicability of SR in signal processing.

Keywords: Probability of detection error, signal detection, stochastic resonance.

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Authors: H. Ali, K. Hameed, N. Khan

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In DMVC, we have more than one options of sources available for construction of side information. The newer techniques make use of both the techniques simultaneously by constructing a bitmask that determines the source of every block or pixel of the side information. A lot of computation is done to determine each bit in the bitmask. In this paper, we have tried to define areas that can only be well predicted by temporal interpolation and not by multiview interpolation or synthesis. We predict that all such areas that are not covered by two cameras cannot be appropriately predicted by multiview synthesis and if we can identify such areas in the first place, we don-t need to go through the script of computations for all the pixels that lie in those areas. Moreover, this paper also defines a technique based on KLT to mark the above mentioned areas before any other processing is done on the side view.

Keywords: Side Information, Distributed Multiview Video Coding, Fusion, Early Decision.

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Authors: Antonio Di Leva, Carla Reyneri, Michele Sonnessa

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PARADIGMA (PARticipative Approach to DIsease Global Management) is a pilot project which aims to develop and demonstrate an Internet based reference framework to share scientific resources and findings in the treatment of major diseases. PARADIGMA defines and disseminates a common methodology and optimised protocols (Clinical Pathways) to support service functions directed to patients and individuals on matters like prevention, posthospitalisation support and awareness. PARADIGMA will provide a platform of information services - user oriented and optimised against social, cultural and technological constraints - supporting the Health Care Global System of the Euro-Mediterranean Community in a continuous improvement process.

Keywords: Decision Support Systems, Ontology, Healt Care, Clinical Pathway

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Authors: C. Nallusamy, A. Sabari, K. Suganya

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Geographical routing protocol requires node physical location information to make forwarding decision. Geographical routing uses location service or position service to obtain the position of a node. The geographical information is a geographic coordinates or can be obtained through reference points on some fixed coordinate system. Link can be formed between two nodes. Link lifetime plays a crucial role in MANET. Link lifetime represent how long the link is stable without any failure between the nodes. Link failure may occur due to mobility and because of link failure energy of nodes can be drained. Thus this paper proposes survey about link lifetime prediction using geographical information.

Keywords: MANET, Geographical routing, Link lifetime, Link stability.

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Authors: Phanu Waraporn

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This paper discusses the designing of knowledge integration of clinical information extracted from distributed medical ontologies in order to ameliorate a machine learning-based multilabel coding assignment system. The proposed approach is implemented using a decision tree technique of the machine learning on the university hospital data for patients with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). The preliminary results obtained show a satisfactory finding that the use of medical ontologies improves the overall system performance.

Keywords: Medical Ontology, Knowledge Integration, Machine Learning, Medical Coding, Text Assignment.

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Authors: Valene J. Gresham, MA, Laura A. Brodie

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For the last decade, statistics show traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a growing concern in our legal system. In an effort to obtain data regarding the influence of neuropsychological expert witness testimony in a criminal case, this study tested three hypotheses. H1: The majority of jurors will vote not guilty, due to mild head injury. H2: The jurors will give more credence to the testimony of the neuropsychologist rather than the psychiatrist. H3: The jurors will be more lenient in their sentencing, given the testimony of the neuropsychologist-s testimony. The criterion for inclusion in the study as a participant is identical to those used for inclusion in the eligibility for jury duty in the United States. A chisquared test was performed to analyze the data for the three hypotheses. The results supported all of the hypotheses; however statistical significance was seen in H1 and H2 only.

Keywords: Expert witness, jury decision, neuropsychology, traumatic brain injury.

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Authors: Olugbade Damola, Adekomi Adebimbo, Sofowora Olaniyi Alaba

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One of the major problems facing education in Nigeria is the provision of quality Science and Technology education. Inadequate teaching facilities, non-usage of innovative teaching strategies, ineffective classroom management, lack of students’ motivation and poor integration of ICT has resulted in the increase in percentage of students who failed Basic Science and Technology in Junior Secondary Certification Examination for National Examination Council in Nigeria. To address these challenges, the Federal Government came up with a road map on education. This was with a view of enhancing quality education through integration of modern technology into teaching and learning, enhancing quality assurance through proper monitoring and introduction of innovative methods of teaching. This led the researcher to investigate how MOODLE LMS could be used to enhance students’ learning outcomes in BST. A sample of 120 students was purposively selected from four secondary schools in Ogbomoso. The experimental group was taught using MOODLE LMS, while the control group was taught using the conventional method. Data obtained were analyzed using mean, standard deviation and t-test. The result showed that MOODLE LMS was an effective learning platform in teaching BST in junior secondary schools (t=4.953, P<0.05). Students’ attitudes towards BST was also enhanced through MOODLE LMS (t=15.632, P<0.05). The use of MOODLE LMS significantly enhanced students’ retention (t=6.640, P<0.05). In conclusion, the Federal Government efforts at enhancing quality assurance through integration of modern technology and e-learning in Secondary schools proved to have yielded good result has students found MOODLE LMS to be motivating and interactive. Attendance was improved.

Keywords: MOODLE, learning management system, quality assurance, basic science and technology.

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Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond

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Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.

Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.

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Authors: Miguel A. Orellana, Sonia E. Ruiz, Juan Bojórquez

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Optimal load factors (dead, live and seismic) used for the design of buildings may be different, depending of the seismic ground motion characteristics to which they are subjected, which are closely related to the type of soil conditions where the structures are located. The influence of the type of soil on those load factors, is analyzed in the present study. A methodology that is useful for establishing optimal load factors that minimize the cost over the life cycle of the structure is employed; and as a restriction, it is established that the probability of structural failure must be less than or equal to a prescribed value. The life-cycle cost model used here includes different types of costs. The optimization methodology is applied to two groups of reinforced concrete buildings. One set (consisting on 4-, 7-, and 10-story buildings) is located on firm ground (with a dominant period Ts=0.5 s) and the other (consisting on 6-, 12-, and 16-story buildings) on soft soil (Ts=1.5 s) of Mexico City. Each group of buildings is designed using different combinations of load factors. The statistics of the maximums inter-story drifts (associated with the structural capacity) are found by means of incremental dynamic analyses. The buildings located on firm zone are analyzed under the action of 10 strong seismic records, and those on soft zone, under 13 strong ground motions. All the motions correspond to seismic subduction events with magnitudes M=6.9. Then, the structural damage and the expected total costs, corresponding to each group of buildings, are estimated. It is concluded that the optimal load factors combination is different for the design of buildings located on firm ground than that for buildings located on soft soil.

Keywords: Life-cycle cost, optimal load factors, reinforced concrete buildings, total costs, type of soil.

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Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

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We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie

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The research examines the factors that affect customer churn (CC) in the Jordanian telecom industry. A total of 700 surveys were distributed. Cluster analysis revealed three main clusters. Results showed that CC and customer satisfaction (CS) were the key determinants in forming the three clusters. In two clusters, the center values of CC were high, indicating that the customers were loyal and SC was expensive and time- and energy-consuming. Still, the mobile service provider (MSP) should enhance its communication (COM), and value added services (VASs), as well as customer complaint management systems (CCMS). Finally, for the third cluster the center of the CC indicates a poor level of loyalty, which facilitates customers churn to another MSP. The results of this study provide valuable feedback for MSP decision makers regarding approaches to improving their performance and reducing CC.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, telecom industry, switching cost, customer churn.

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Authors: Tshimangadzo Oscar Magadze

Abstract:

For successful re-integration, the individual offender must adapt and transform, which requires that the offender should adopt and internalise socially approved norms, attitudes, values, and beliefs. However, the offender’s labelling and community stigmatisation decide the destination of the offender. Community involvement in ex-offenders’ re-integration is an important issue in efforts to reduce recidivism and to control overcrowding in our correctional facilities. Crime is a social problem that requires society to come together to fight against it. This study was conducted in the Limpopo Province in Vhembe District Municipality within four local municipalities, namely Musina, Makhado, Mutale, and Thulamela. A total number of 30 participants were interviewed, and all were members of the Community Corrections Forums. This was necessitated by the fact that Musina is a very small area, which compelled the Department of Correctional Services to combine the two (Musina and Makhado) into one social re-integration entity. This is a qualitative research study where participants were selected through the use of purposive sampling. Participants were selected based on the value they would add to this study in order to achieve the objectives. The data collection method of this study was the focus group, which comprised of three groups of 10 participants each. Thulamela and Mutale local municipalities formed a group with (10) participants each, whereas Musina (2) and Makhado (8) formed another. Results indicate that the current situation is not conducive for re-integration to be successful. Participants raised many factors that need serious redress, namely offenders’ discrimination, lack of forgiveness by members of the community, which is fuelled by lack of community awareness due to the failure of the Department of Correctional Services in educating communities on ex-offenders’ re-integration.

Keywords: Ex-offender, labelling, re-integration, stigmatisation.

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Authors: Nafaâ Nacereddine, Latifa Hamami, Djemel Ziou

Abstract:

In non destructive testing by radiography, a perfect knowledge of the weld defect shape is an essential step to appreciate the quality of the weld and make decision on its acceptability or rejection. Because of the complex nature of the considered images, and in order that the detected defect region represents the most accurately possible the real defect, the choice of thresholding methods must be done judiciously. In this paper, performance criteria are used to conduct a comparative study of thresholding methods based on gray level histogram, 2-D histogram and locally adaptive approach for weld defect extraction in radiographic images.

Keywords: 1D and 2D histogram, locally adaptive approach, performance criteria, radiographic image, thresholding, weld defect.

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Authors: Defu Zhang, Qingshan Jiang, Xin Li

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.

Keywords: Data mining, neural network, stock forecasting.

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