Search results for: outbreak
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 36

Search results for: outbreak

36 Anomaly Based On Frequent-Outlier for Outbreak Detection in Public Health Surveillance

Authors: Zalizah Awang Long, Abdul Razak Hamdan, Azuraliza Abu Bakar

Abstract:

Public health surveillance system focuses on outbreak detection and data sources used. Variation or aberration in the frequency distribution of health data, compared to historical data is often used to detect outbreaks. It is important that new techniques be developed to improve the detection rate, thereby reducing wastage of resources in public health. Thus, the objective is to developed technique by applying frequent mining and outlier mining techniques in outbreak detection. 14 datasets from the UCI were tested on the proposed technique. The performance of the effectiveness for each technique was measured by t-test. The overall performance shows that DTK can be used to detect outlier within frequent dataset. In conclusion the outbreak detection technique using anomaly-based on frequent-outlier technique can be used to identify the outlier within frequent dataset.

Keywords: Outlier detection, frequent-outlier, outbreak, anomaly, surveillance, public health

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35 Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak

Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

Abstract:

Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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34 Modelling Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Outbreak Using Poisson and Negative Binomial Model

Authors: W. Y. Wan Fairos, W. H. Wan Azaki, L. Mohamad Alias, Y. Bee Wah

Abstract:

Dengue fever has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries. These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper, therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most. The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover, percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be significant only after 2 weeks.

Keywords: Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Negative Binomial Regression model, Poisson Regression model.

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33 An Epidemiological Study on an Outbreak of Gastroenteritis Linked to Dinner Served at a Senior High School in Accra

Authors: Benjamin Osei Tutu, Rita Asante, Emefa Atsu

Abstract:

Background: An outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred in December 2019 after students of a Senior High School in Accra were served with kenkey and fish during their dinner. An investigation was conducted to characterize the affected people, the source of contamination, the etiologic food and agent. Methods: An epidemiological study was conducted with cases selected from the student population who were ill. Controls were selected from among students who also ate from the school canteen during dinner but were not ill. Food history of each case and control was taken to assess their exposure status. Epi Info 7 was used to analyze the data obtained from the outbreak. Attack rates and odds ratios were calculated to determine the risk of foodborne infection for each of the foods consumed by the population. The source of contamination of the foods was ascertained by conducting an environmental risk assessment at the school. Results: Data were obtained from 126 students, out of which 57 (45.2%) were cases and 69 (54.8%) were controls. The cases presented with symptoms such as diarrhea (85.96%), abdominal cramps (66.67%), vomiting (50.88%), headache (21.05%), fever (17.86%) and nausea (3.51%). The peak incubation period was 18 hours with a minimum and maximum incubation periods of 6 and 50 hours respectively. From the incubation period, duration of illness and the symptoms, non-typhoidal salmonellosis was suspected. Multivariate analysis indicated that the illness was associated with the consumption of the fried fish served, however this was statistically insignificant (AOR 3.1.00, P = 0.159). No stool, blood or food samples were available for organism isolation and confirmation of suspected etiologic agent. The environmental risk assessment indicated poor hand washing practices on the part of both the food handlers and students. Conclusion: The outbreak could probably be due to the consumption of the fried fish that might have been contaminated with Salmonella sp. as a result of poor hand washing practices in the school.

Keywords: Case control study, food poisoning, handwashing, Salmonella, school.

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32 Sanitary Measures in Piggeries, Awareness and Risk Factors of African Swine Fever in Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: A. Asambe

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures.

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31 Investigation of the Space in Response to the Conditions Caused by the Pandemics and Presenting Five-Scale Design Guidelines to Adapt and Prepare to Face the Pandemics

Authors: Sara Ramezanzadeh, Nashid Nabian

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Historically, pandemics in different periods have caused compulsory changes in human life. In the case of COVID-19, according to the limitations and established care instructions, spatial alignment with the conditions is important. Following the outbreak of COVID-19, the question raised in this study is how to do spatial design in five scales, namely object, space, architecture, city, and infrastructure, in response to the consequences created in the realms under study. From the beginning of the pandemic until now, some changes in the spatial realm have been created spontaneously or by space users. These transformations have been mostly applied in modifiable parts such as furniture arrangement, especially in work-related spaces. To implement other comprehensive requirements, flexibility and adaptation of space design to the conditions resulting from the pandemics are needed during and after the outbreak. Studying the effects of pandemics from the past to the present, this research covers eight major realms, including three categories of ramifications, solutions, and paradigm shifts, and analytical conclusions about the solutions that have been created in response to them. Finally, by the consideration of epidemiology as a modern discipline influencing the design, spatial solutions in the five scales mentioned (in response to the effects of the eight realms for spatial adaptation in the face of pandemics and their following conditions) are presented as a series of guidelines. Due to the unpredictability of possible pandemics in the future, the possibility of changing and updating the provided guidelines is considered.

Keywords: Pandemics, COVID-19, spatial design, ramifications, paradigm shifts, guidelines.

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30 Chikungunya Protease Domain–High Throughput Virtual Screening

Authors: Surender Singh Jadav, Venkatesan Jayaprakash, Arijit Basu, Barij Nayan Sinha

Abstract:

Chikungunya virus (CHICKV) is an arboviruses belonging to family Tagoviridae and is transmitted to human through by mosquito (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) bite. A large outbreak of chikungunya has been reported in India between 2006 and 2007, along with several other countries from South-East Asia and for the first time in Europe. It was for the first time that the CHICKV outbreak has been reported with mortality from Reunion Island and increased mortality from Asian countries. CHICKV affects all age groups, and currently there are no specific drugs or vaccine to cure the disease. The need of antiviral agents for the treatment of CHICKV infection and the success of virtual screening against many therapeutically valuable targets led us to carry out the structure based drug design against Chikungunya nSP2 protease (PDB: 3TRK). Highthroughput virtual screening of publicly available databases, ZINC12 and BindingDB, has been carried out using the Openeye tools and Schrodinger LLC software packages. Openeye Filter program has been used to filter the database and the filtered outputs were docked using HTVS protocol implemented in GLIDE package of Schrodinger LLC. The top HITS were further used for enriching the similar molecules from the database through vROCS; a shape based screening protocol implemented in Openeye. The approach adopted has provided different scaffolds as HITS against CHICKV protease. Three scaffolds: Indole, Pyrazole and Sulphone derivatives were selected based on the docking score and synthetic feasibility. Derivatives of Pyrazole were synthesized and submitted for antiviral screening against CHICKV.

Keywords: Chikungunya, nsP2 protease, ADME filter, HTVS, Docking, Active site.

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29 Formal Models of Sanitary Inspections Teams Activities

Authors: Tadeusz Nowicki, Radosław Pytlak, Robert Waszkowski, Jerzy Bertrandt, Anna Kłos

Abstract:

This paper presents methods for formal modeling of activities in the area of sanitary inspectors outbreak of food-borne diseases. The models allow you to measure the characteristics of the activities of sanitary inspection and as a result allow improving the performance of sanitary services and thus food security.

Keywords: Food-borne disease, epidemic, sanitary inspection, mathematical models.

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28 A Retrospective Cohort Study on an Outbreak of Gastroenteritis Linked to a Buffet Lunch Served during a Conference in Accra

Authors: Benjamin Osei Tutu, Sharon Annison

Abstract:

On 21st November, 2016, an outbreak of foodborne illness occurred after a buffet lunch served during a stakeholders’ consultation meeting held in Accra. An investigation was conducted to characterise the affected people, determine the etiologic food, the source of contamination and the etiologic agent and to implement appropriate public health measures to prevent future occurrences. A retrospective cohort study was conducted via telephone interviews, using a structured questionnaire developed from the buffet menu. A case was defined as any person suffering from symptoms of foodborne illness e.g. diarrhoea and/or abdominal cramps after eating food served during the stakeholder consultation meeting in Accra on 21st November, 2016. The exposure status of all the members of the cohort was assessed by taking the food history of each respondent during the telephone interview. The data obtained was analysed using Epi Info 7. An environmental risk assessment was conducted to ascertain the source of the food contamination. Risks of foodborne infection from the foods eaten were determined using attack rates and odds ratios. Data was obtained from 54 people who consumed food served during the stakeholders’ meeting. Out of this population, 44 people reported with symptoms of food poisoning representing 81.45% (overall attack rate). The peak incubation period was seven hours with a minimum and maximum incubation periods of four and 17 hours, respectively. The commonly reported symptoms were diarrhoea (97.73%, 43/44), vomiting (84.09%, 37/44) and abdominal cramps (75.00%, 33/44). From the incubation period, duration of illness and the symptoms, toxin-mediated food poisoning was suspected. The environmental risk assessment of the implicated catering facility indicated a lack of time/temperature control, inadequate knowledge on food safety among workers and sanitation issues. Limited number of food samples was received for microbiological analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that illness was significantly associated with the consumption of the snacks served (OR 14.78, P < 0.001). No stool and blood or samples of etiologic food were available for organism isolation; however, the suspected etiologic agent was Staphylococcus aureus or Clostridium perfringens. The outbreak could probably be due to the consumption of unwholesome snack (tuna sandwich or chicken. The contamination and/or growth of the etiologic agent in the snack may be due to the breakdown in cleanliness, time/temperature control and good food handling practices. Training of food handlers in basic food hygiene and safety is recommended.

Keywords: Accra, buffet, C. perfringens, cohort study, food poisoning, gastroenteritis, office workers, Staphylococcus aureus.

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27 Swine Flu Transmission Model in Risk and Non-Risk Human Population

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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26 Evaluation of Disease Risk Variables in the Control of Bovine Tuberculosis

Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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25 Influenza Pattern Analysis System through Mining Weblogs

Authors: Pei Lin Khoo, Yunli Lee

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Weblogs are resource of social structure to discover and track the various type of information written by blogger. In this paper, we proposed to use mining weblogs technique for identifying the trends of influenza where blogger had disseminated their opinion for the anomaly disease. In order to identify the trends, web crawler is applied to perform a search and generated a list of visited links based on a set of influenza keywords. This information is used to implement the analytics report system for monitoring and analyzing the pattern and trends of influenza (H1N1). Statistical and graphical analysis reports are generated. Both types of the report have shown satisfactory reports that reflect the awareness of Malaysian on the issue of influenza outbreak through blogs.

Keywords: H1N1, Weblogs, Web Crawler, Analytics Report System.

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24 Online Teaching Methods and Student Satisfaction during a Pandemic

Authors: Anita Kéri

Abstract:

With the outbreak of the global pandemic of COVID-19, online education characterizes today’s higher education. For some higher education institutions (HEIs), the shift from classroom education to online solutions was swift and smooth, and students are continuously asked about their experience regarding online education. Therefore, there is a growing emphasis on student satisfaction with online education, a field that had emerged previously, but has become the center of higher education and research interest today. The aim of the current paper is to give a brief overview of the tools used in the online education of marketing-related classes at the examined university and to investigate student satisfaction with the applied teaching methodologies with the tool of a questionnaire. Results show that students are most satisfied with their teachers’ competences and preparedness, while they are least satisfied with online class quality, where it seems that further steps are needed to be taken.

Keywords: Online teaching, pandemic, satisfaction, students.

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23 China’s Health Diplomacy to Strengthen Ties with Africa

Authors: Wanda Luen-Wun Siu, Xiaowen Zhang

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The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has caused great difficulties for South-South cooperation, but there are also opportunities. China’s health diplomacy has changed from dispatching medical teams, assisting in the construction of hospitals, and to encouraging medical investment in the Africa health sector. This paper adopted a retrospective review of China’s health statecraft in Africa from 1963 to 2020. Findings suggested that China has a preference for aiding Africa health infrastructure and sending medical teams to African countries and it is both socially and financially sustainable. China’s health diplomacy in Africa is a success and has established secure diplomatic relations with African countries, thanks to the medical and health assistance to Africa over 60 years. This research contributes to the literature of health diplomacy and indicates that China’s health aid has fostered cooperation at the medical and diplomatic levels.

Keywords: Africa, bilateral relations, China’s Health Diplomacy, COVID-19.

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22 Understanding Narrative Transformations of Ebola in Negotiations of Epidemic Risk

Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: Ebola, Epidemic Risk, Medical Ethics, Medical Humanities.

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21 Sovereign Credit Risk Measures

Authors: Kristýna Pokorná, Petr Teplý

Abstract:

This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in the European countries and started to discriminate among government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk premium.

Keywords: cointegration, credit default swap, credit risk, credit spread, sovereign risk

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20 Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Leptospirosis in Juvennile and Adults Humans

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Leptospirosis occurs worldwide (except the poles of the earth), urban and rural areas, developed and developing countries, especially in Thailand. It can be transmitted to the human by rats through direct and indirect ways. Human can be infected by either touching the infected rats or contacting with water, soil containing urine from the infected rats through skin, eyes and nose. The data of the people who are infected with this disease indicates that most of the patients are adults. The transmission of this disease is studied through mathematical model. The population is separated into human and rat. The human is divided into two classes, namely juvenile and adult. The model equation is constructed for each class. The standard dynamical modeling method is then used for analyzing the behaviours of solutions. In addition, the conditions of the parameters for the disease free and endemic states are obtained. Numerical solutions are shown to support the theoretical predictions. The results of this study guide the way to decrease the disease outbreak.

Keywords: Adult human, juvenile human, leptospirosis, mathematical model.

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19 Unveiling the Domino Effect: Barriers and Strategies in the Adoption of Telecommuting as a Post-Pandemic Workspace

Authors: D. Lingam, D. R. Seenivasagam, P. Chand, C. Yee, J. Chief, R. Ananthanarayanan

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In a post-pandemic workspace, identifying the barriers, solutions, and strategies related to telecommuting becomes crucial. Amidst the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, remote work emerged as a vital business continuity measure. This study investigates telecommuting’s modern work model, exploring benefits and obstacles. Utilizing Interpretive Structural Modelling, it uncovers barriers hindering telecommuting adoption. A validated set of thirteen barriers is examined through departmental surveys, revealing interrelationships. The resulting model highlights interactions and dependencies, forming a foundational framework. By addressing dominant barriers, a domino effect on subservient barriers is demonstrated. This research fosters further exploration, proposing management strategies for successful telecommuting adoption, reshaping the traditional workspace.

Keywords: Barriers, interpretive structural modelling, post-pandemic, telecommuting.

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18 The Influences of Marketplace Knowledge, General Product Class Knowledge, and Knowledge in Meat Product with Traceability on Trust in Meat Traceability

Authors: Kawpong Polyorat

Abstract:

Since the outbreak of mad cow disease and bird flu, consumers have become more concerned with meat quality and safety. As a result, meat traceability is adopted as one approach to handle consumers’ concern in this issue. Nevertheless, in Thailand, meat traceability is rarely used as a marketing tool to persuade consumers. As a consequence, the present study attempts to understand consumer trust in the meat traceability system by conducting a study in this country to examine the impact of three types of consumer knowledge on this trust. The study results reveal that out of three types of consumer knowledge, marketplace knowledge was the sole predictor of consumer trust in meat traceability and it has a positive influence. General product class knowledge and knowledge in meat products with traceability, however, did not significantly influence consumer trust. The research results provide several implications and directions for future study.

Keywords: Consumer knowledge, marketing, product knowledge, traceability.

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17 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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16 Aflatoxins Aggravate the Incidence of Salmonellosis Outbreak in Fattening Calves: A Case Study

Authors: Abdel-Rahman A., El Okle O. S.

Abstract:

Fever, bloody diarrhea and high mortality rate were the main clinical finding in a group of fattening calves. Analysis of corn silage revealed presence of aflatoxins at level of 370 ppb. This level of aflatoxins in the feed of cattle is somewhat low to be the main cause of reported signs. Leukocytopenia, anemia, decreased lymphocytic activity and lowered phagocytic index are the main hematological and immunological alterations in diseased calves. Bacteriological investigation revealed isolation of pathogenic Salmonella typhimurium from the rectal swabs of diseased calves. Our results suggested that, long duration of exposure to aflatoxins even at small concentrations may considered as predisposing factor for the incidence of natural infectious outbreaks as salmonellosis due to its immunosuppressive effect. We can conclude that the veterinarians and owners must be given an attention to the relation between aflatoxicosis and salmonellosis under field condition. We are recommended that the treatment program during similar outbreaks must be including anti-aflatoxins preparations beside the antimicrobial therapy.

Keywords: Aflatoxins, Calves, Salmonellosis.

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15 A Neuro-Automata Decision Support System for the Control of Late Blight in Tomato Crops

Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition.

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14 Modeling and Analysis of an SIRS Epidemic Model with Effect of Awareness Programs by Media

Authors: Navjot Kaur, Mini Ghosh, S.S. Bhatia

Abstract:

This paper proposes and analyzes an SIRS epidemic model incorporating the effects of the awareness programs driven by the media. Media and media driven awareness programs play a promising role in disseminating the information about outbreak of any disease across the globe. This motivates people to take precautionary measures and guides the infected individuals to get hospitalized. Timely hospitalization helps to reduce diagnostic delays and hence results in fast recovery of infected individuals. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the media on the spread and control of infectious diseases. This model is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. The sensitivity of parameters has been discussed and it has been found that the awareness programs driven by the media have positive impact in reducing the infection prevalence of the infective population in the region under consideration.

Keywords: Infectious diseases, SIRS model, Media, Stability theory, Simulation.

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13 Mathematical Model of Dengue Disease with the Incubation Period of Virus

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Dengue virus is transmitted from person to person through the biting of infected Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4 are four serotypes of this virus. Infection with one of these four serotypes apparently produces permanent immunity to it, but only temporary cross immunity to the others. The length of time during incubation of dengue virus in human and mosquito are considered in this study. The dengue patients are classified into infected and infectious classes. The infectious human can transmit dengue virus to susceptible mosquitoes but infected human can not. The transmission model of this disease is formulated. The human population is divided into susceptible, infected, infectious and recovered classes. The mosquito population is separated into susceptible, infected and infectious classes. Only infectious mosquitoes can transmit dengue virus to the susceptible human. We analyze this model by using dynamical analysis method. The threshold condition is discussed to reduce the outbreak of this disease.

Keywords: Transmission model, intrinsic incubation period, extrinsic incubation period, basic reproductive number, equilibriumstates, local stability.

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12 Mining Association Rules from Unstructured Documents

Authors: Hany Mahgoub

Abstract:

This paper presents a system for discovering association rules from collections of unstructured documents called EART (Extract Association Rules from Text). The EART system treats texts only not images or figures. EART discovers association rules amongst keywords labeling the collection of textual documents. The main characteristic of EART is that the system integrates XML technology (to transform unstructured documents into structured documents) with Information Retrieval scheme (TF-IDF) and Data Mining technique for association rules extraction. EART depends on word feature to extract association rules. It consists of four phases: structure phase, index phase, text mining phase and visualization phase. Our work depends on the analysis of the keywords in the extracted association rules through the co-occurrence of the keywords in one sentence in the original text and the existing of the keywords in one sentence without co-occurrence. Experiments applied on a collection of scientific documents selected from MEDLINE that are related to the outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza virus.

Keywords: Association rules, information retrieval, knowledgediscovery in text, text mining.

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11 Barriers and Drivers towards the Use of Childhood Vaccination Services by Undocumented Migrant Caregivers in Sabah, Malaysia: A Qualitative Analysis

Authors: Michal Christina Steven, Mohd. Yusof Hj Ibrahim, Haryati Abdul Karim, Prabakaran Dhanaraj, Kelly Alexius Mansin

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After 27 years, Malaysia reported polio cases in 2019 involving the children of the undocumented migrants living in Sabah. These undocumented migrants present a significant challenge in achieving the elimination of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD). Due to the recent polio outbreak among the undocumented migrant children in Sabah, an in-depth interview was conducted among the caregivers of undocumented migrant children to identify the barriers and drivers towards vaccinating their children. Financial barriers, legal citizenship status, language barrier, the COVID-19 pandemic, and physical barriers have been the barriers to access vaccination services by undocumented migrants. Five significant drivers for undocumented migrants to vaccinate their children are social influence, fear of disease, parental trust in healthcare providers, good support, and vaccine availability. Necessary action should be taken immediately to address the problems of vaccinating the children of undocumented migrants to prevent the re-emergence of VPD.

Keywords: Malaysia, polio, Sabah, undocumented migrants.

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10 Antecedents of Word-of-Mouth for Meat with Traceability: Evidence from Thai Consumers

Authors: Kawpong Polyorat, Nathamon Buaprommee

Abstract:

Because of the outbreak of mad cow disease and bird flu, consumers have become more concerned with quality and safety of meat and poultry. As a consequence, meat traceability has been implemented as a tool to raise the standard in the meat production industry. In Thailand, while traceability is relatively common among the manufacturer-wholesaler-retailers cycle, it is rarely used as a marketing tool specifically designed to persuade consumers who are the actual meat endusers. Therefore, the present study attempts to understand what influences consumers to spread their words-of-mouth (WOM) regarding meat with traceability by conducting a study in Thailand where research in this area is rather scant. Data were collected from one hundred and sixty-seven consumers in the northeastern region and analyzed with SEM. The study results reveal that perceived usefulness of traceability system, social norms, and product class knowledge are significant antecedents where consumers spread positive words regarding meat with traceability system. A number of theoretical and managerial implications as well as future study directions are offered at the end of this study report.

Keywords: Perceived usefulness, product knowledge, social norms, traceability, word-of-mouth,

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9 Study of Fire Propagation and Soot Flow in a Pantry Car of Railway Locomotive

Authors: Juhi Kaushik, Abhishek Agarwal, Manoj Sarda, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

Abstract:

Fire accidents in trains bring huge disaster to human life and property. Evacuation becomes a major challenge in such incidents owing to confined spaces, large passenger density and trains moving at high speeds. The pantry car in Indian Railways trains carry inflammable materials like cooking fuel and LPG and electrical fittings. The pantry car is therefore highly susceptible to fire accidents. Numerical simulations have been done in a pantry car of Indian locomotive train using computational fluid dynamics based software. Different scenarios of a fire outbreak have been explored by varying Heat Release Rate per Unit Area (HRRPUA) of the fire source, introduction of exhaust in the cooking area, and taking a case of an air conditioned pantry car. Temporal statures of flame and soot have been obtained for each scenario and differences have been studied and reported. Inputs from this study can be used to assess casualties in fire accidents in locomotive trains and development of smoke control/detection systems in Indian trains.

Keywords: Fire propagation, flame contour, pantry fire, soot flow.

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8 Molecular Detection and Characterization of Infectious Bronchitis Virus from Libya

Authors: Abdulwahab Kammon, Tan Sheau Wei, Abdul Rahman Omar, Abdunaser Dayhum, Ibrahim Eldghayes, Monier Sharif

Abstract:

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a very dynamic and evolving virus, causing major economic losses to the global poultry industry. Recently, the Libyan poultry industry faced severe outbreak of respiratory distress associated with high mortality and dramatic drop in egg production. Tracheal and cloacal swabs were analyzed for several poultry viruses. IBV was detected using SYBR Green I real-time PCR detection based on the nucleocapsid (N) gene. Sequence analysis of the partial N gene indicated high similarity (~ 94%) to IBV strain 3382/06 that was isolated from Taiwan. Even though the IBV strain 3382/06 is more similar to that of the Mass type H120, the isolate has been implicated associated with intertypic recombinant of 3 putative parental IBV strains namely H120, Taiwan strain 1171/92 and China strain CK/CH/LDL/97I. Complete sequencing and antigenicity studies of the Libya IBV strains are currently underway to determine the evolution of the virus and its importance in vaccine induced immunity. In this paper we documented for the first time the presence of possibly variant IBV strain from Libya which required dramatic change in vaccination program.

Keywords: Libya, Infectious bronchitis, Molecular characterization.

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7 Teachers’ Continuance Intention Towards Using Madrasati Platform: A Conceptual Framework

Authors: Fiasal Assiri, Joanna Wincenciak, David Morrison-Love

Abstract:

With the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Saudi government suspended students from going to school to combat the outbreak. As e-learning was not applied at all in schools, online teaching and learning have been revived in Saudi Arabia by providing a new platform called ‘Madrasati’. The Decomposed Theory of Planned Behaviour (DTPB) is used to examine individuals’ intention behaviour in many fields. Nevertheless, the factors that affect teachers’ continuance intention of the Madrasati platform have not yet been investigated. The purpose of this paper is to present a conceptual model in light with DTPB. To enhance the predictability of the model, the study incorporates other variables including learning content quality and interactivity as sub-factors under the perceived usefulness, students and government influences under the subjective norms, and technical support and prior e-learning experience under the perceived behavioural control. The model will be further validated using a mixed methods approach. Such findings would help administrators and stakeholders to understand teachers’ needs and develop new methods that might encourage teachers to continue using Madrasati effectively in their teaching.

Keywords: Madrasati, Decomposed Theory of Planned Behaviour, continuance intention, attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control.

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